{"nextCursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwMTowMTowMy4wMDBafGZmMjEwZmJkLTQxY2EtNDRmMS1hZmMwLTExOGY0ZTFhNGU1NA","posts":[{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-08T04:41:29.289Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"a7a5b5e2-8666-4bb1-94fc-b7d2c3307231","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["closed source inference ipo vals crashed","will only continue","more teams pivot to open models"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The source says closed-model inference IPO valuations have fallen and expects the decline to continue as teams move to open models.","topic":"closed model inference valuations"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["more teams pivot to open models","already match-to-beating opus 4.6","zero api bills forever"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source expects more teams to adopt open models, citing improving performance and lower inference costs.","topic":"open model adoption"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"io:OAI","confidence":0.66,"dex":"io","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":1330.65,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-08T04:40:54.083Z","headline":"Expects OpenAI's valuation to keep falling as more firms leave closed models","id":"sig_395c532adef941139b4301fe","matched":["oai","will only continue","not be on anth/oai anymore"],"maxLeverage":6,"rationale":"The source expects OpenAI's value to keep declining as funded organizations shift from closed models to open ones.","routing":"direct","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"OAI","tags":["openai","valuation","open models"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"c3d30460-3dd2-4448-9e66-822971d7901a","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-08T04:39:37.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1955291693324091392/MpVUQKMF_normal.jpg","handle":"@MoneyPrinter0x","id":"x-1653080265294757890","name":"MP","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"DGX sparks near doubled since this, outperforming all datacenter gpus \n\n4,800$ -> 9,500$ (and currently 8,200$)\n\nclosed source inference ipo vals crashed (anth 2Tn$ -> 1.3Tn$)\n\nwill only continue as more teams pivot to open models, early adopters gain both technical & asset moat https://t.co/tZ6C7lSZts https://t.co/orq4rXOtpP\n\nQuoting their own post: v4 flash 0731 and glm 5.3 flash are already match-to-beating opus 4.6 on a 2x sparks stack (less than 10k$) at home, ~90% inference speed of cloud anthro opus. quantized its even usable on a single spark (4k$), thats 1month api spend thats barely justifiable before for perf tradeoffs\n\nv4.1 flash is now beating opus 5 and hostable on 3x sparks (less than 15k$) on day 1, with optimizations within a few weeks it wont even be close to where it is today which is already beating anth's flagship while being permanently hostable (zero api bills forever) for a single eng's payroll not to mention capacity for domain-specialized tuning \n\nstarting from today its basically a no brainer for the majority of funded orgs to not be on anth/oai anymore, the economics are just not justifiable","textShort":"DGX sparks near doubled since this, outperforming all datacenter gpus \n\n4,800$ -> 9,500$ (and currently 8,200$)\n\nclosed source inference ipo vals crashed (anth 2Tn$ -> 1.3Tn$)\n\nwill only continue as more teams pivot to open models, early adopters gain both technical & asset…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/MoneyPrinter0x/status/2119288709313085645"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-08T00:26:21.820Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"910ba97b-16be-4c70-ad24-6e1994778a37","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["$PUMP and @fomo throwing in with Elysium","pretty big signal where they think memes and social trading could head next"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source sees PUMP and FOMO aligning with Elysium as a meaningful sign for where memes and social trading may go.","topic":"elysium adoption"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["I wouldn't say it's not attractive here at all","it could potentially lose a lot of attention to Elysium"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The source says Robinhood Chain could lose attention to Elysium but still considers it potentially attractive.","topic":"robinhood chain"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"SOL","confidence":0.78,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":89.5685,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-08T00:25:54.631Z","headline":"Expects Solana to lose ground as Elysium competes for its users","id":"sig_2d39505474ae455d9139c620","matched":["$SOL is potentially a massive loser","Elysium threatens all 3 of those directly","there's just not enough moat for the rest of what they offer now"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"The source expects Solana to lose because Elysium threatens its main offerings and the source sees too little moat in what Solana offers.","routing":"direct","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"SOL","tags":["competition","ecosystem","hedge"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"7a4a0824-2c25-4716-945c-02123a0c48da","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-08T00:25:22.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2049861904634609664/43DxVolR_normal.jpg","handle":"@koolkrypto223","id":"x-1982595844747743233","name":"KoolKrypto","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"In case it wasn't obvious from previous posts\n\n$SOL is potentially a massive loser if Elysium does well. \n\nIt's main three value props right now are tokenized equity volume, performant DeFi, and memecoins.\n\nElysium threatens all 3 of those directly. As I said, it's way easier for Elysium to vamp those users than it is for $SOL to vamp HL users to their perps offerings. $PUMP and @fomo throwing in with Elysium is pretty big signal where they think memes and social trading could head next.\n\nRobinhood Chain is in an interesting spot as well because it just got taken out behind the shed already (likely unrelated to Elysium), so I wouldn't say it's not attractive here at all, but it could potentially lose a lot of attention to Elysium. \n\nIf either Elysium or RHC wins, $SOL loses, so it's a very comfy hedge in the market now imo. They were too little too late to the perps race and there's just not enough moat for the rest of what they offer now.","textShort":"In case it wasn't obvious from previous posts\n\n$SOL is potentially a massive loser if Elysium does well. \n\nIt's main three value props right now are tokenized equity volume, performant DeFi, and memecoins.\n\nElysium threatens all 3 of those directly. As I said, it's way easier…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/koolkrypto223/status/2119224723490078949"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-07T22:18:43.933Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"ef2bce5c-79fc-48d7-9dfb-72293e7694af","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["from $1 to $53 in (2024) a 53x increase"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The post says INJ rose from $1 to $53 in 2024, a 53x increase.","topic":"inj's 2024 price rise"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"INJ","confidence":0.75,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":8.1855,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T22:17:52.980Z","headline":"Expects INJ to rise even higher and make history again","id":"sig_5a21e75eb47d489aac826679","matched":["send $INJ even higher","let’s make history once again","$INJ Season."],"maxLeverage":5,"rationale":"The post urges INJ higher and suggests its earlier 53x run could be followed by another historic move.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"INJ","tags":["crypto","bullish","momentum"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"766a9c14-1f77-44f2-afbc-b2786b58fc08","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-07T22:16:51.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2109414096512888832/iJ-vTCaS_normal.jpg","handle":"@AB_geniuss","id":"x-1874854523199754240","name":"AB","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Reposted @Rawan_INJ: Let's goooo @CryptoWizardd , send $INJ even higher..🔥\n\nYou’ve already taken it from $1 to $53 in (2024) a 53x increase.\n\nAnd now, let’s make history once again. ✍🏻\n\n(2026) From $7.8 to……? 👀\n\nWizz Season.\n$INJ Season. https://t.co/jks1xEqZBH https://t.co/ksPMRRXjBy\n\nQuoting: Big month\n\n$INJ https://t.co/oxiFpG1xrF","textShort":"Reposted @Rawan_INJ: Let's goooo @CryptoWizardd , send $INJ even higher..🔥\n\nYou’ve already taken it from $1 to $53 in (2024) a 53x increase.\n\nAnd now, let’s make history once again. ✍🏻\n\n(2026) From $7.8 to……? 👀\n\nWizz Season.\n$INJ Season. https://t.co/jks1xEqZBH…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/AB_geniuss/status/2119192385083318659"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-07T21:39:51.543Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"4703d7d7-ca4a-458a-85c8-2754ecfc6c83","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Not all of this money is \"leaving the industry\", but a lot of it is."],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The source says substantial fees and revenue flow to platforms and companies, with much of that value leaving the industry.","topic":"crypto platform fee flows"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Elysium and Hyperliquid can recapture so much of this value and redirect it back to builders, tokenholders, trenchers, etc."],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source expects Elysium and Hyperliquid to win activity and redirect more value to builders, tokenholders, and users.","topic":"elysium and hyperliquid value capture"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"HYPE","confidence":0.77,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":2,"entryPx":76.8615,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T21:39:41.177Z","headline":"Expects HYPE to recapture billions in value for its community","id":"sig_5efbaf20afeb46c49fc820ff","matched":["$HYPE","recapture billions of dollars of value leaks and pile it all back into the community"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source expects HYPE to benefit as Kinetiq redirects value from other platforms back to the community.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"HYPE","tags":["value capture","community","ecosystem"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"71d7539a-ed15-4f3d-a4f3-fedc488e22f7","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-07T21:38:04.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2049861904634609664/43DxVolR_normal.jpg","handle":"@koolkrypto223","id":"x-1982595844747743233","name":"KoolKrypto","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"The 🏳️🌈🐻 among you still ask \"Why would Elysium succeed when _______ failed?\"\n\nTo which, I retort, \"Why would anyone build or deploy anywhere else ever again?\"\n\n$PUMP has taken nearly half a billion $ out of the trenches\n$SOL gas fees are $250m in the last year\nBase and Robinhood chain combined for $100-125 million in sequencer fees this year, straight to corpo\nCircle/Coinbase made $1.7b in interest on USDC left on $ETH mainnet this year\nBinance has EASILY made 9figs+ in the last year on listing fees\n\nNot all of this money is \"leaving the industry\", but a lot of it is. Elysium and Hyperliquid can recapture so much of this value and redirect it back to builders, tokenholders, trenchers, etc.\n\nIt's so much easier to get Pumpfun users to blast memes on Elysium than it would be to get Hyperliquid traders to start using...Phoenix? Or Arcus on RHC?\n\nWhy would anyone want to trade, borrow, lend, loop etc spot RWAs anywhere else but the place most adjacent to the deepest RWA perp liquidity?\n\nWhy would builders want to launch apps where they don't get to keep 25% of their sequencer fees and direct access to the most popular/successful/important app in crypto?\n\nShow me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome; kinetiq:native and $HYPE will recapture billions of dollars of value leaks and pile it all back into the community.","textShort":"The 🏳️🌈🐻 among you still ask \"Why would Elysium succeed when _______ failed?\"\n\nTo which, I retort, \"Why would anyone build or deploy anywhere else ever again?\"\n\n$PUMP has taken nearly half a billion $ out of the trenches\n$SOL gas fees are $250m in the last year\nBase and…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/koolkrypto223/status/2119182624543604938"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-08T00:30:56.858Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"51599ddf-c88a-45e0-80b5-f15dc9c11f2a","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["fvck memes"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The source expresses strong dislike for memes.","topic":"memecoins"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"ETH","confidence":0.75,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":2236.75,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-08T00:30:02.507Z","headline":"Expects Ethereum to rise and says they won't bet against it this time","id":"sig_beee59b2c96848f599df514f","matched":["can't fade ethereum","this time i won't"],"maxLeverage":25,"rationale":"The source expects Ethereum to do well and says they will not bet against it this time.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"ETH","tags":["ethereum","bullish"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"7cdc2399-8475-419f-9368-7a1db12b1f83","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-07T20:23:49.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1692319430611517440/WwOa201h_normal.jpg","handle":"@CryptoWizardd","id":"x-972970759416111104","name":"WIZZ🥷 ( beware scammers )","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Reposted @cryptostasher: fvck memes. but can't fade ethereum:0x8ed97a637a790be1feff5e888d43629dc05408f6. i faded at the bottom, but this time i won't.\n\nsc3nning.... https://t.co/yybB7uXpkp","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/CryptoWizardd/status/2119163937056842039"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-07T18:41:32.952Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"a4eb6004-e58a-4869-a0da-4d9c8ddd45a8","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Inflation will come back down.","If the war has ended quickly"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Sacks expects inflation to come down if the war ends and fuel prices fall.","topic":"inflation"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["The economy is broken.","they are struggling"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Chamath describes the economy as broken and says many wage earners are struggling to afford essentials.","topic":"u.s. economy"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Stocks got killed earlier this week","close to $4 trillion in market cap wiped out"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The post reports that AI-linked stocks suffered a large selloff earlier in the week.","topic":"ai linked stocks"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["500 to 1000 times the need for this","offshore data centers will be the trend of the next two years","the pipeline will either be closed or significantly reduced"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The panel expects demand for AI compute to grow, while warning that regulation and permitting could slow U.S. data-center construction and shift capacity abroad.","topic":"ai infrastructure"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["price of brent crude will drop precipitously","it'll go from 110 to 70 if this war ends"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Sacks expects Brent crude to fall sharply if the Iran war ends.","topic":"brent crude"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:SPCX","confidence":0.95,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":134.845,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T18:41:04.592Z","headline":"The speaker expects SpaceX shares to rise, calling them undervalued and saying he is buying","id":"sig_4d05c841d06d417f8fa6b52e","matched":["SpaceX","severely undervalued as a stock","i've been buying shares"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"He calls SpaceX stock severely undervalued and says he has been buying shares, signaling he expects it to gain.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"SPCX","tags":["equities","spacex"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"fc783d50-4981-4976-a518-fc600ca1854b","marks":[{"at":80,"t":0},{"at":802,"t":45},{"at":1223,"t":92},{"at":2247,"t":154},{"at":3242,"t":217},{"at":4155,"t":281},{"at":4650,"t":311},{"at":5522,"t":366},{"at":6378,"t":424},{"at":7396,"t":487},{"at":8362,"t":548},{"at":9408,"t":611},{"at":10425,"t":674},{"at":11282,"t":735},{"at":12088,"t":773},{"at":13263,"t":835},{"at":13725,"t":865},{"at":14641,"t":910},{"at":15741,"t":973},{"at":16870,"t":1035},{"at":17858,"t":1095},{"at":18800,"t":1157},{"at":19394,"t":1204},{"at":20169,"t":1252},{"at":20652,"t":1286},{"at":21511,"t":1349},{"at":22357,"t":1410},{"at":23207,"t":1473},{"at":23712,"t":1503},{"at":24400,"t":1544},{"at":25030,"t":1585},{"at":26004,"t":1648},{"at":26967,"t":1711},{"at":27695,"t":1757},{"at":28834,"t":1822},{"at":29753,"t":1884},{"at":30760,"t":1945},{"at":31248,"t":1979},{"at":32193,"t":2043},{"at":33051,"t":2105},{"at":34070,"t":2169},{"at":34905,"t":2229},{"at":35894,"t":2289},{"at":36485,"t":2333},{"at":37550,"t":2395},{"at":38614,"t":2456},{"at":39088,"t":2490},{"at":40227,"t":2552},{"at":41360,"t":2617},{"at":42071,"t":2659},{"at":43023,"t":2712},{"at":44204,"t":2775},{"at":45316,"t":2835},{"at":46553,"t":2897},{"at":47736,"t":2962},{"at":48847,"t":3028},{"at":49669,"t":3078},{"at":50636,"t":3141},{"at":51369,"t":3192},{"at":52350,"t":3258},{"at":53193,"t":3319},{"at":53759,"t":3354},{"at":54338,"t":3391},{"at":55366,"t":3453},{"at":56383,"t":3517},{"at":57263,"t":3578},{"at":58103,"t":3642},{"at":59119,"t":3706},{"at":60067,"t":3767},{"at":61172,"t":3830},{"at":62066,"t":3877},{"at":63163,"t":3940},{"at":64113,"t":3987},{"at":65032,"t":4034},{"at":65947,"t":4085},{"at":67010,"t":4145},{"at":68215,"t":4207},{"at":69431,"t":4273},{"at":69994,"t":4312},{"at":70902,"t":4364},{"at":71508,"t":4396},{"at":72559,"t":4456},{"at":73650,"t":4518},{"at":74439,"t":4563},{"at":75505,"t":4626},{"at":76453,"t":4690},{"at":77612,"t":4754},{"at":78748,"t":4816},{"at":79821,"t":4878},{"at":80832,"t":4940},{"at":81856,"t":5004},{"at":82861,"t":5068},{"at":83664,"t":5116},{"at":84722,"t":5176},{"at":85682,"t":5237},{"at":86386,"t":5278},{"at":87424,"t":5338},{"at":88424,"t":5395},{"at":89536,"t":5458},{"at":90500,"t":5508},{"at":90986,"t":5570}],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-07T18:32:58.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://yt3.googleusercontent.com/HJsWqJXc6uQ9Jyrkdjqyx6AT6HnMCi3tpf0PXsv0VaRizZAkivXCiSwyJjKJcd4iOLeVm0-DqDg=s900-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj","handle":"@allin","id":"yt-UCESLZhusAkFfsNsApnjF_Cg","name":"All-In Podcast","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Midterm Blood Bath, $4T AI Sell Off, Data Center Freeze, What’s Next for Trump\n\nAll right, everybody, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world, the all in podcast. And I'd like to start by saying that all in recognizes that we are on the sacred land in Austin, Texas of the Cato, the Comanche, the Kickapoo and the Tonka Wada. And we appreciate all their sacrifices and bring us here. And we will be evaluating, I just talked to our HR department, we'll be evaluating a fifth bestie, Brad, two white, two male. So we're looking for alternative DEI fifth besties to include in the roundtable. Wow. So some big changes coming to the... DEI is back is what you're saying. DEI is back. Sax, did you have anything for the docket this week? I have an announcement. You have an announcement. Okay. I'm transitioning. From a douchebag to an asshole. Sax, where do you want to start? You want to start with... I think there's some really important news around SaaS out there. I mean, maybe Salesforce launched a couple of new features. Definitely top of docket type material. I'd like to start with science corner. Nobody in our family ever said, I'm ready to go. You guys want to talk about exponential time hypothesis? That's what the audience wants. They want the SAS update from Saks and the science update and then we can get our market revealing or wrap the show up. No, in all seriousness, there was an election this week, we had an amazing live stream over a million views so far. a crazy Chamath. I don't know if you knew this, but 400,000 people tuned in live making us, I believe the number one election night live stream. Not true. It was 500,000. And just to put it in perspective, the far right streamers got about 87,000. The far left streamers got 250,000. We got 500,000, which was bigger than most cable as well. So We were the biggest and bigger than, I think, most, if not all, cable as well. Apparently, America wants hot takes from tech bros. Here we go. Who would have thought? Who would have thunk it? And by the way, that was with only three of our all-stars on the court. Saks had a board meeting Thursday night and couldn't make it. Tuesday night. He was busy. Yeah, I was busy that night. I think I was passed out in the bar. You passed out in the bar? sacks is the only guy who goes to the bar with his own bottle of tequila he's like can you put this behind the bar and serve it to me at 50 a glass special thanks to ted cruz rama manual shane copeland of polymarket man did he have a great night i think polymarket nailed it 99 of their uh prediction markets turned out to have it perfectly be hilarious fifth bestie tim dillon Taylor Lorenz based Taylor Lorenz was fantastic and insightful. Brad Gerser did a solid job, brought some charts and uh ben shapiro from the right so it was a really great great uh panel and today we're going to take a pretty um systematic approach to what happened this week we're going to start with a post mortem on the midterms and then second uh we're going to talk about the second half of trump's terminal the next two years so i'm sure data centers will come up in our in our recap postmortem etc but we're going to do a deep dive into the ai trade potentially cracking so let's start with are postmortem on what just happened in the midterms. Obviously, the Democrats sweeped both chambers of Congress and they won at least 29 governor races. Dems will wind up with 54, 55 or 56 seats, depending on how Alaska and Mississippi wind up. They have a lot of votes still coming in in the House. Dems will have at least 250 seats, maybe even 260. the bigger story is where the republicans lost deeply red states that haven't gone blue in generations went blue, including the great state of Texas. Please don't blame me. I've only been here for three years and you might be surprised at what my voting ticket looked like. Kansas, Iowa, South Carolina for the first time in decades. Trump won all of those states by double digits just two years ago compared to 2024. The GOP lost ground in every voter group, even white men. So let's go around the horn, Sax. People want to hear from you most of all, I guess. So what went wrong here? What are the lessons the Republican Party can learn? And what did the Democrats do right in the last 18 months leading up to the midterms? This was a slacking. This was a blowout. It was, I believe, the biggest midterm loss since the Watergate midterm loss. So this was obviously a big defeat for the Republicans. There's no sugarcoating it. What's the reason for that? I believe the Vice President, J.D. Vance, explained it very well. It was this war. And the only thing I would add to that is it was this war and the economic consequences that follow from the war. So what am I talking about? Price of gas, it was around three bucks before the war, went over four and higher. Price of diesel, even higher. And then that factors into the cost of food, all the goods that have to be transported. Also, fertilizer costs went up. And so you saw the inflation rate at the beginning of the year back in January before the war, it was down to 2.4%. We finally had that problem licked just about remember it was 9% under Biden. And in the first year of the Trump administration, we brought it down to 2.4. The market was expecting multiple rate cuts this year. And we were forecasting 5% GDP growth, which I don't think was too overly ebullient based on what we were seeing at that time combined with the expectation of rate cuts. Aggressive, but not unbelievable. Unrealistic. Not unrealistic, yes. Okay. And by the way, the prediction markets back in January were showing a 70% chance of Republicans holding the Senate and then the house was perceived to be a toss-up I think that if this election had happened back in January it would have been a pretty successful one for the Republicans what happened since then well You got inflation going from 2.4% to 3.7%. Again, mostly driven by the cost of gas and diesel and all these other products where you have to pay a higher cost of transportation. And you end up not having any rate cuts. You end up getting a rate hike that brought the cost of mortgages to roughly 7.5%. And that overall fed this narrative around affordability. So it's the war plus the perception of the lack of affordability is what really created this tidal wave. you know i i have to admit i thought that i mean look i didn't think this would be a great election for republicans but i thought that it wouldn't be this bad i i was wrong you said it was a spritz it would be i thought it could be a spritz that was based on a couple of things number one is that the last few elections the pollsters have all been wrong and and trump has always managed to defy the odds and i thought that this polling data must fall into that pattern And then the second thing is that the economy is not that bad. I mean, in fact, it's quite good. So just today, we had a new jobs report. It was a very robust jobs report. The number of new jobs created is being revised up. You've got unemployment ticked down to almost record low, 4.1%. You've got still pretty healthy GDP growth. In the first half of the year, it was around 2.1 to 2.5 and then third quarter the tracking by gdp now is 3.7 so i thought given the fact that you got great employment you got solid gdp growth i thought the fact that inflation was too high would not result in this type of tidal wave i thought it'd be more like the biden midterms where he had extremely high inflation, but the economy itself was still pretty decent. And it ended up being more of a red spritz as opposed to a red wave. So that was my pattern recognition. It was wrong. And I think one of the reasons why it was wrong here is because I think the public is in a pretty ordinary mood. They're very concerned about affordability. It doesn't matter how good the economy actually is. It matters how good people perceive it to be for them. And in the first year of the Trump administration, we made enormous progress in delivering real post-tax household income. It rose by like 3.1%. But because of the inflation numbers over the last six months, you're starting to chip away at that, right? Because again, as long as inflation is growing faster than your wages, you're losing purchasing power in real terms. I think the electorate is getting ornery about that. And just one other thing I want to say about it, which is there's one other piece of why the war I think was so bad, which is it fractured the Republican coalition and the Republican base. Jake, how you've pointed this out. We lost all the podcast bros. I mean, obviously it was Tucker Carlson and Joe Rogan and Theo Vaughn and that whole set. Megan Kelly. Megan Kelly. So, you know, a house divided against itself cannot stand. I mean, we lost a huge part of our base and I would say that the Republicans in particular are dependent on the podcast circuit let's call it alternative media why because the mainstream media hates us Legacy media hates us they will never get there 90 left so it is yeah and I think one of the reasons why Trump produced such a resounding victory in 2024 is he appealed to that whole podcasting circuit and and frankly We should have done a better job giving them all front row seats in the White House press room. We should have stayed connected to all of them because they are our media. By the way, they don't work for us. They're willing to defect, obviously. They have their own opinions. They have their own opinions, but we have to pay attention. I think our side has to pay a lot of attention to them because without them, we don't have any media that supports us. So I think that losing them was a big deal. It fueled the sense. And I think that a lot of those people showed up and then did a protest vote because they wanted to send the message that they want out of this war. Friedberg. just a couple of quotes for you to react to Ted Cruz called it a Watergate level repudiation Chamath Santa said, quote, close to an extinction level event for the current GOP. And in a very long ex post that JD Vance did, that was pretty surprising for everybody that there's some reporting it was approved, maybe not approved, we'll get all that out later. But what's important is what he said. He's in line with USACS, the iran war was the driving force here in the loss and that the gop has to rebuild trust with voters on four axes ending the war focus on cost of living putting america first and uh maybe a little controversial uh lee change our relationship with israel what are your thoughts on jd's posts and the other reactions and just why did this turn out to be a tsunami i don't know if it's as much of a positioning and marketing issue as it was sort of fundamental, I'll go back to the clip from the prediction show right after Trump was elected. Can we pull that up, Nick? I think that the party line is that socialism was defeated in this election cycle and that there was a resounding kind of vote from the American populace against socialism. And I actually think my contrarian belief is that we'll see a dramatic rise in socialist movements in 2025 in the United States. And I think that we are going to see, as Gavin pointed out, an acceleration of progress. We're going to see an unleashing of economic growth, because of deregulation and AI. But I do think that some industries and some companies are going to be huge winners and some companies are going to be huge losers. There's going to be some parts of the economy that are going to be big winners and some parts of the economy that are going to be big losers. So I just want to say that. I think you nailed it there, Freeberg. That was very accurate for the first year of the presidency. And so if you just zoom out a little bit, the macro condition was there was a moment after the election when there was this idea of Doge, this idea that government spending would be reduced, which I believe fundamentally would have affected the cost of living. And we can argue about that. People disagree. They wash that point away. I do think it is the fundamental driver on the cost of living is government spending. The more the government spends, the more expensive things get. I believe that. And we can go through the analysis on what happened in France, you know, government spending as a percentage GDP is one metric, how many people are employed or depend on government checks is another metric. But as the government's involved in more of the economy, things get more expensive. So when Doge was coming around the idea of Doge, the idea of government efficiency, the idea of making sure that every dollar spent by the government has a positive ROI for the people was a great idea. We visited DC in March of 2025. And we visited Elon and we talked about Doge and he was he was struggling. It was pretty clear he was struggling, not just internally, but with Congress and with the public perception of what was being done there. And I came away from that visit in March of 2025, where I also met with multiple members of Congress on that visit, Republicans and Democrats who did not give a shit about improving government spending efficiency, did not care about the total government spending as a percentage GDP. It was not a priority. And on June 5th of 2025, Elon left, and it was the end of Doge. The idea that Doge was going to continue was over. And I said China just won because to me, at that moment, the day that this ended, that this administration ended that effort, is the day that it was clear that we were going to have a runaway cost of living and a challenge for progress for the majority of Americans. And the end result of that is voting in more of these kind of socialist principles, socialist policies, socialist politicians. So for me, my tweet on June 5th was China has just won was the day that it was announced that Doge was basically coming to an end. And then the one big beautiful bill passed in July of 2025, which had some uh entitlement cost reductions but all of the fundamental spending of the government has not been reduced and we're still running a seven trillion dollar a year government budget with a two trillion two trillion dollar a year deficit so i don't think congress was ever on board it is a structural fundamental problem and no one's on board with it and i think that was key to what happened here for the majority of americans they don't feel like they're getting ahead They don't feel like they can afford things. They don't feel like healthcare is accessible and they are struggling. And it wasn't addressed. My view was it wasn't addressed in the way it should be. And we can all disagree on policy matters, but that's my view. And as a result, people still felt that way. And that's what drove the vote. But I do think on AI, it's this idea of this oligarchy. If I'm not getting ahead, someone else is because quote, the economy is growing, quote, the stock market is growing. Who is getting all of that growth? Because I'm not getting it. the ai guys are the tech oligarchs are and so on and i think that that's why ai was poised for this but i do think that there was some external influence that happened on ai and i'll pull up this chart here real quick which i shared around on the group chat yesterday which is an incredible gallup study that shows ai optimism and pessimism in countries around the world the most optimistic country for ai is china 93 of chinese citizens think ai will mostly help people in the country And 93% of people think AI will make their daily lives better in China. And we can believe or not believe how Gallup does their surveys in China. The US is fourth last. We are worse than Afghanistan. and we're just slightly better than Malawi and Bangladesh. We're fourth on the list of countries at 36% of Americans believing that. And so I think that in addition to the priming of the pump, which is if I'm not getting ahead, someone's getting ahead and the AI guys, because we create the AI in this country, are getting ahead, made it really easy to attack with this oligarch narrative that there is a group of people that are benefiting and making a lot of money, and then there's a large percentage of people that aren't. And so I think it's pretty clear that this vector was a really effective one. Whether it persists or not is TBD. And I think we should talk a little bit about what's next later in the show, because I do think AI is going to play a major role in how the politics are going to play out over the next year. That's two incredibly concise and candid recaps of what happened there, Chamath. And just as a side programming note, great job on Rick Rubin's podcast this week. If you haven't checked that out, Chamath was on Rick Rubin, and it was awesome. Thank you. Chamath, did you sit barefoot in his backyard with him, Chamath? Yeah. By the way, when you go to Rick Rubin's recording studio, he walks you around and he's like, \"Oh, Chamath, here's Bob Dylan's old touring van. That's where we recorded Adele's album.\" Then he's like, \"This is where Kanye and I laid down this album and then here's where Jay-Z and I were. I mean, it is the craziest place, but it puts you in a totally centered state of mind, I got to say. Yeah, and we sat around in his studio barefoot, sitting across each other just talking, and then they put it out as a conversation. In 10 years, he's going to be telling people this is where I interviewed Samath Palihapitiya. So greatest stock market highs of our lifetimes, lowest unemployment of our lifetimes, And we still had the tsunami. When you look back on it, Chamath, what do you think happened here? And you said you were in a moment of great candor and self-reflection during the live stream. You said, hey, listen, I had a blind spot here. I got it totally, totally, totally wrong. I got it totally wrong. Okay. Unpack. I'll go through all the ways in which I got it wrong, but I just want to first acknowledge what my blind spot is. Like most people's blind spots, but I can just speak for myself, is through the lens of my own lived experience and very narrowly what is in my best interests. And I think what we had was a move away from the culture wars. That was very much in my best interest, but I think it was in everybody else's best interests as well. I don't think that was on the ballot. But what I don't think I understood clearly enough, and I think that this election has made extremely clear, is that since COVID, we have moved past political ideology. And I want to say this again. I do not think Democrats or Republicans matter. That is my real takeaway after this election. There is a central block of people that vote the prescient issues of our time. It was a gargantuan win for Biden, then it was a gargantuan win for Trump, and then it was a gargantuan win for the Democrats in these midterms. What are these people voting for? I think what they are shouting now, they were trying to signal and now they are shouting is a broad based belief that the economy has completely decoupled from reality and is broken. The economic reality in America is broken. There is a small percentage of people, the four of us on this pod and all of our friends who are the asset owners of America. And we have benefited in every weather condition. When rates were zero, we benefited because we were able to build our businesses with very cheap capital. When rates were high, we benefited because we had pricing power. And in every condition in between, whether there was tariffs, whether there were not tariffs, whether there were subsidies, whether there were not subsidies, we've all managed to continue to accumulate and grow assets. but we are few and far between. And then there's everybody else who are wage earners and the structural capacity of the American economy to support and grow wage earners is broken. It's clear. Why do I say that? I do not think and I disagree with Friedberg. I don't think that has anything to do with socialism. I don't think the far left one particularly more than they were expected. I don't think the far right one particularly more than was expected. This was a complete and total repudiation about the state of the economy. The economy is broken. I have a few charts to support my point of view. Number one, if this was ideological, and if ideology mattered, money in politics would have had a more direct impact on the election. But when you look at the amount of money that was spent, All of this money was wasted. All the money that went into taxes was wasted. All the money that went into Senate raises in Ohio was wasted. The better bet was to look who was being spent money on. If you had taken the opposite candidate who had no money, you would have been overwhelmingly more right. So money follows ideology. Money did not work in this election. Ergo, in my opinion, ideology did not matter that much. Next chart. Redistricting and gerrymandering also follows ideology. You try to set up the geographies in a way so that you could gain more seats. Look what happened of the 15 Republican seats that were redrawn. so that they could capture all of them democrats won 11 of them republicans only won one so again Ideological gerrymandering also totally failed. So we have ideological spending in politics, failure. Ideological gerrymandering, failure. Next chart. And what you had were centrists, normal people. These are not people running around talking about communism. These were people that very narrowly focused on one thing and one thing only, which was affordability and the functioning of the United States economy. And they spoke to a large block of people that were both Democrats and Republicans initially supported Biden overwhelmingly supported Trump and then overwhelmingly went to the Democrats largely to vote the displeasure with the economy. That's it. I don't believe Iran really had much to do with it. I don't believe Israel had much to do with it. I don't believe AI had much to do with it. This is the American society asking for a reset on the economic principles on which we operate. And I think the obvious thing to do for the ambitious candidate on the left or the right is to take these three charts together and have one very precise takeaway, which is the economic populist platform. will be the one that you can take to the presidency in 28. And the path is really straightforward. Because if you look at what happened to Harris, and then you look at how aggressively all of these states moved towards what I think is economic centrism, What you have is for either side to not worry about whether you're a Democrat or whether you're a Republican. But if you embrace reasonable standards of economic fairness, you will win. So I got this wrong. I thought top down economics can still work. I thought that when you had asset owners building assets and investing in the economy, these things can get to everybody else. It's clearly not happening. It's not true. I have to update my priors. And my new framework is we need to figure out how to stop all the loopholes. We need to figure out how to do some of the things we've talked about before. Stop the federal underwriting of loans. Combine that with getting rid of student debt. Take all federal taxes beneath a certain band, probably 150K to zero. There's all kinds of things that can be done now to allow the wage earning class to feel more ownership of the United States economy. And until it happens, my prediction is not that Democrats or Republicans win, but they will violently keep going back and forth away from the status quo. Because if you are in power and you do nothing, they will vote against you. So now the Democrats have a really interesting challenge. What will you do with the majority in both houses? Are you actually going to try to legislate economic fairness? Or are you going to spend your time distracted with impeaching Trump, because then you will find yourself if the Republican candidate embraces the economic populist platform, you'll find yourself losing the way the Republicans lost in the midterms. All right, incredibly well explained there, Chamath and I agree. Now's not the time to dunk. Now's the time to dissect all this. And who could have ever seen this coming? Nick, roll the tape. This is why they will lose the midterms. The Democrats are going to shellack the Republicans in the midterms. Trump sold people that price it would go down. We're back up to 3% inflation, folks. Not only is it not going down, it's going up. Trump has failed the middle class. That's the bottom line. It's basically going to result in the Democrats doing a clean sweep in the midterms. Trump promised not to start a war. He did. He promised to solve inflation. He didn't. The end. A stop clock is right twice a day, J. Cal. Absolutely. I did cheat out, but let me... My take on that is that you were not right until the war began. That last clip that you did You were vindicated, right? Because it's the war and inflation. I mean, those are the two things, specifically the affordability problem that results when you have this inflation. Look, price of gas, everyone goes to the pump to fill up every week or two, and the average household is paying $200 a month more in gas costs. Then they go to their grocery store, and everything is much more expensive because the cost of agricultural products has gone way up. And so on down the line. And at the end of the day, that's what matters to people is their pocketbook. It's like, do you have more purchasing power in real post-tax post-inflation terms that's how you measure if you're doing better off and the Trump administration delivered that in the first year we did 3.1 percent increase in real household income it was negative during the Biden years and it was positive during trump 45. what happened the war begins price of gas and diesel all the rest goes up and purchasing power starts to go in reverse and then on top of it you lose the young males who are again the fans of all these podcasts that's where they get their news from young males flipped their vote by 36 points in this midterm relative to the 2024 election. So again, in my view, it's very simple. It comes back to the war and its economic consequences. Now, here's the good news is if we get out of the war, we can make rapid progress on this. All the other economic numbers are still good. Again, job growth, the job report today was great. Economic growth is still good. There are lots of very positive economic numbers. The issue is fundamentally the price of oil, the price of gas, the price of diesel, and the way these things flow through the economy. If the war has ended quickly, those prices will drop very quickly. Inflation will come back down. That will give the Fed permission to cut rates. So mortgage costs come back down and we can get back on track. Sachs, you're right. The endless war, endless inflation were the straw in the back of the camel. But I think you're absolutely wrong when it comes to what happened previously. All of the polls were correct. Everybody on the right said the polls were wrong. all the prediction markets were correct and everybody on the right was saying that those were wrong and those were being manipulated and uh for a year plus on this podcast and i'd like to dissect this moment by moment i had pointed out this chart and this is the silver bolton which is just absolutely nailed this cycle. They did a great job. Nate Silver is phenomenal at what he does. And here, if you look at it, it's really worth looking at. It's not just the war. Liberation Day, people forget the tariffs. Trump started the term at 5% plus net approval rating. He ended it at negative 28. This is like an over 30% swing. And Liberation Day, as I pointed out when it happened, was far too chaotic. And I spoke to the CEO of Cuts Clothing, if you remember, we had this discussion on the podcast, and he's a Trump loyalist. And people were arguing at that time, oh, these tariffs are going to be great. These are awesome. And that no prices would be added. And the American public didn't have to pay for it. And this was going to balance the budget. Not only did it not balance the budget, it did spike inflation. And President Trump should have just worked with Congress. Remember, he had to go to the Supreme Court. He lost there. And this is a leak in President Trump's game. Then over the summer, We had some pretty hot discussions here about the ICE enforcement. And I said, listen, no Americans, including people I know in law enforcement, people I know who employ people who have been here for 20 years and yes, who are illegal aliens, technically, nobody wants to see this. Nobody wants to see masked agents without body cameras. beating people up in without their badges on right. That was a huge mistake and he had a massive drop and then started to hit negative 20% net rating. This is all before the Iran war started. And if you look at the summer of 25 with those ice actions, it also had the Epstein files and that's where you lost all the podcast bros. They did not want to have Trump renege on sending the Epstein files out. And of course, you get all the way to the war and the endless allegations of grifting and the endless inflation and that then just plummeted in from 20 to negative 23. that's a series of events that happen and uh I just want to stay for the record here I'm an independent I vote now 55 Democrat in my life 45 Republican when we started this podcast it was probably 70 30. I have moved significantly towards the right because of the lunacy of the left But what happened here is the Trump 2.0 agenda, I think, got abandoned and there were tons of distraction. President Trump has the right ideas, but often his execution is extremely variable. And that's just a way of being very generous. to say it's chaotic. And if you have that chaotic moment and then everything is about the data centers, everything's about our industry, everything's about helping us. And people laugh and mock at the idea of raising the minimum wage. You sort of pointed out here during your talk, the K-shaped economy is kind of what you were invoking there. it doesn't feel fair to people and i think you made a very accurate point that people are just swinging and just hoping somebody will care about the bottom half of non-equity holders that's exactly what it is and trump didn't make people feel like he was working for them that's why they abandoned him and the grifting allegations whether they're true or not is all going to come out but that's what we need to talk about and it leads us to our second topic here our second topic which is going to be what the next 24 months are going to be about. So, Sax, you wanted to get to this next 1824 months. Is there a path to redemption for President Trump? Is there a way to turn this presidency around and maybe save his legacy? Well, first of all, let me put up some charts here since you guys are doing the chart game and I didn't know we were going to play the chart game today. So Nick, can you... We have the best charts. Yeah, Nick, can you throw up these charts? Okay, so look, Jcal, there's all sorts of issues out there that people are going to point to. And I know you've got yours, and I'm not saying that every single issue has been executed perfectly. I do think that President Trump deserves enormous credit for completely sealing the border and solving that immigration issue. Just as an example. But look, again, the question is, why was this not a normal midterm result? Look at The Trump approval rating versus the price of gas. It maps perfectly. Okay. Trump net approval maps to the price of gas. Okay. Next chart. This was the prediction market for which party will win the Senate in 2026. And what you see is that the Republicans were expected to win by a very large margin in throughout the entire first year of the Trump presidency, all through the things you were talking about, J. Cal. Okay? So the tariff rollout did not affect this whatsoever. That was the Liberation Day in April. Not even a blip here. Okay. April of 2025 wasn't a blip. And to be clear, not a blip on the Senate balance. Yeah. Yes. But I'm using this as a proxy. Not the approval rating I showed. I get it. But I'm using this as a proxy for what just happened where we lost, what, like eight or nine Senate seats. Okay. Where does it start to change? March. March of 2026. What happened? When did the war begin? February 28th of 2026. very clear that's where everything starts to change here in terms of losing the senate next chart okay now just ask voters what'd you vote for why'd you vote question thinking about your vote for congress how important to you was the war in iran crucial 34 a major factor 40 so basically 74 of the electorate said that it was either crucial or a major factor and then of those they broke massively for blue and this doesn't just include Democrats obviously it includes a lot of Independence and it even includes I would say younger Republican voters there's a huge divide in the party I think between you kind of got the Fox News group it's kind of the over 50 or even over 60 They're, I think, still supportive of the war, but you look at the younger voters, young males, highly against this. Again, it ties back to the podcast, bros. So again, there's abundant data to show what I've been saying. Now, your question was, can Trump fix this? I think absolutely, because the root of the problem here- What's your top three things he can do to fix it? Just get out of the war. okay and the war that's my number one my number two and my number three because what will what will happen the price of brent crude will drop precipitously on the day of the election the price of brent crude dropped 10 percent is that because something changed in the straight of war moves no it's because the market started to price in the mere possibility that the war would end sooner and we got a 10 cut in the price of brent crude it will go from you know it's been as high as 117 it'll go from 110 to 70 if this war ends gas prices will drop diesel will drop the price of food will drop and then the underlying strong economic growth the GDP growth and the employment picture which are still robust will come into focus and I think that Trump's popularity will rebound maybe back in the 40s okay so I that's the thing we need to do and if we don't do that Look, if this war continues, hold on, let me stress this one point. If the war continues, the Republicans will continue to bleed popularity. I don't think this is the war in Iran, meaning it is in as much as it adds to a broken economy. Since COVID, the economy has been structurally broken. And I just think that there's a huge voting bloc that keeps swinging back and forth to either side, asking them, \"Solve the problems,\" and giving people mandates to solve a problem. That's why I think somebody needs to understand economic populism. Do you buy that argument, or do you think that it's more narrowly just the war in Iran? I don't want to make it, like, so overly abstract. Like, to me, the issue is affordability. Okay, and I think the electorate really cares about that. It's like the central pocketbook issue I agree and I think that both economic data and the prediction markets showed that in January of 2026 We were in pretty good shape on that issue and since then we went backwards and I believe that we can get in good shape again without turning to socialism or completely restructuring the economy remember the 24 election and I agree with you that economic affordability can be an abstract term, but I think that the voting electorate is smart enough to use a message as a vessel. And I remember in 24, the vessel, which again, I didn't hear it loud enough. But if I look back, and maybe I'm just imposing my narrative bias on it, was do you remember the whole controversy around the price of eggs? And Trump hammered Biden and Harris on the price of eggs over and over? It wasn't the price of eggs. I mean, yes, it was. But it was a window into a broad problem and an idea. And I think gas is a problem. But I also think it is a window into a broad class of problems. And I think people focus their energy on a thing because it's easier to message around a thing repeatedly. But the problem is, that's what look, I was listening to Gina Hinhoso, this is the new governor-elect of Texas. So frankly, it's a race I wasn't even paying attention to because I don't think anyone expected Greg. Yeah, we assumed Abbott was going to win. Going to win. A very successful three-term governor in Texas, presided over an economic boom. That's why we moved to this state. And we thought, I mean, honestly, I think it was the biggest shocker of the whole night. Anyway, so I started watching some interviews with her to kind of catch up on what I had obviously missed. And I watched one interview she did with the New York Times where the interviewer kept trying to draw her out on social issues, like let's call it woke issues, identity politics. And she said, listen, I'm not participating in your culture war. And then she laid out the case for economic populism as she saw it. And then she connected it to data centers, which is that the reason why data centers are bad is because they are making your utility bills go up, right? You're paying more for electricity and the data centers are using up your water. I think that's why the data center issue was resonant is because, I mean, there is anxiety about AI and the potential job loss that could come from that. But I think the big reason why people hate the data center so much is they perceive that it's driving up their utility bills and they're the oligarchs are getting rich off the data centers while they're paying more which goes to the oligarchs are getting tax breaks and you're getting higher utility which goes to chamath's point of people feel they're they're unheard and they're going to take the only action they can which is going to the voting booth friedberg uh so freeberg you've heard my breakdown you heard um chamath's breakdown and then a sax with a little bit of a repuddle there Let's do an alternate history here. Freeberg, if the war had not started, what would the midterms have looked like? And then what do you think happens in the next 18 months of Trump's presidency? Is there a way to turn around his legacy? And if there is a way, what two or three pieces of advice would you give this administration to focus on in their remaining 18 to 24 months of power? I kind of agree with the notion that the AI data center hysteria and the hatred for the Iran war are both rooted in this idea that you haven't solved my economic problems first. So I don't think that they're the primary. I think that they're a reflection of the consequence of not focusing on my issues first, my economic cost problem first. So I think that's still the biggest issue. I think two things are about to happen in 27. One is, I think it's going to be very hard with this Congress and the sitting president to come to a resolution on a clean budget. And as a result, I think things are going to continue as is. And I worry about the cost of things continuing to climb. And by the way, I'll just reflect on Shamov's point. COVID was an accelerating moment for this unaffordability problem for people that don't own assets in the U.S., and the reason is we doubled government spending that's what happened and by doubling government spending everything inflates including assets which is why people who are asset owners benefit and people who are earners for their labor lose because the cost of everything goes up and if you're making money from a paycheck every week you can't afford your health care your education, your housing bill, your food, your gas. I do think that the Iran war was acutely off target, because it was declarative at the beginning, we're not going to do any new wars. And then there was a big war that was started. So it was an easy target. So I do think that this this budget question is a big one, what's going to happen with spending in 2728. And as we talked about a couple of weeks ago, I think the bond market will tell you where they think That's headed. Because if we continue this $2 trillion a year deficit spending, things are going to remain expensive, they're going to get worse. And it's not about people choosing socialism as an ideology to counter Chamath's comment earlier. I'm not saying people are choosing socialism as an ideology or as a set of principles. socialist outcomes arise from the policies that people think are going to solve their cost issues. That's what ends up happening here, that people think the best way to solve the cost of things is to have the government do more. And then you have more socialist policies. It's not that people are saying I want to be a socialist. And that's where you end up in this slippery slope spiraling problem. And I worry about how we're going to resolve to a budget going into 27 and 28. I do think AI is going to continue to be this really big political hot point. I think the like AI is almost like the ring of Sauron. Okay. And like both sides want the ring of Sauron. It's this ultimate kind of tool, this ultimate power. It is a risk to the state. It is fundamentally something that takes power out of the government's hands and distributes it. Let's just assume that there isn't a company making AI and there isn't a company that owns all the data centers. Assume that there's a million data centers and a million variants of open source AI. In a world like that, there is no oligarchy that's making money off AI. So just assume that that's the case for a moment and that we can get to that end state. In that end state, the tools of AI pull a lot of power, a lot of influence away from government, from the state. And as that happens, I think the actors that want the state to be central, central command, central planning, central authority, and ultimately central power structure are going to react violently against that. And they're going to want to have the AI. So I actually think the calls to stop the development of AI are actually calls for them to have absolute control over AI. because it is way too powerful for them to not have the control over the AI. They want the AI. And I think a lot of the policy stuff that we're going to end up seeing here, and this is where if you play the game theory out, I still think, I could be wrong, but I still think we end up in a place where the government says we want to regulate compute. They're not going to regulate the chips or the models because those are too hard to kind of catch up on and you're never going to be able to regulate development of software. It's very hard to regulate deployment of software. But the utilization of that software is fundamentally constrained by how much access you get to compute. I think the data centers end up being treated like utilities in the future. And I do think that the government are going to try and move down this path. They're going to realize it's the best path to get what I just described. which is the ability to control and manage who gets access to this technology. Yeah. And at a minimum, they're going to get a great tax basis. I think a lot of the data center stuff is performative. They just want to get a better deal. If you look at how Gina from Texas looked at data center, she's looking at it from the community first perspective. If you look at how Trump, President Trump looked at it, it was from the companies and the economy, the GDP's perspective first. But they all they both wind up in the same place, which is don't disturb your neighbors. Don't pollute, you know, be a good citizen and maybe splashy cashy a little bit of the funds there. So in terms of the what trump can do i have a take some people might find a little shocking i'm not a big fan of uh pardons right but they're the law they're built into the system both parties uh use them liberally and every administration gets more aggressive in using them so until we change that i think trump right now should pardon everybody right now this week pardon his family pardon himself pardon every single person in the administration because he's going to do it anyway And then that takes off the table, the Democrats doing an endless amount of investigations or it neuters it to a certain extent. And then he should say to them, let's work, let's make a deal. and the deal he should make number one is do some tax reforms on the capital gains laws now listen we all make our money from capital gains uh and then i'm assuming you know most of the people in our uh circle leverage margin loans in other words taking loans against our uh equity holdings we should just say anything over 10 million you tax it at 50 percent uh of the capital gains rate If you wind up paying the loan down, you get that as a credit. If you wind up selling shares, you pay the rest of the capital gains. Get that out there, smooth it out. It's a revenue stream and it makes it feel like, hey, when rich people take these loans, at least some tax revenue comes in and you get rid of the Bernie Sanders. These people haven't paid taxes and this year they paid zero. Then we got to work on health care. I'll leave it up to other folks with more experience to say what that should be. But Trump should say, hey, let's work on health care. i'm going to keep harping on the minimum wage there's two ways to do it obviously you could say no taxes on people under a certain revenue or income threshold as you sort of evoke their earlier chamath but just say two years a year for four years get everybody up to 15 an hour i know that people will call me a libtard for saying this even though i'm a moderate independent i think it would be good for the esprit de corps it would counter this narrative that we don't care about the bottom half of society. And in fact, there's only 10, 15 million people who are impacted by under $15 an hour. So it's an easy thing to do. I would go with number four, a ban on trading stocks in office and doing business with foreign countries Rahm Emanuel has his proposal people on the right have it so I think we should go get some consensus on that from everybody and then finally I think Trump should come to him and say hey listen we know housing is the thing that's frustrating people a whole bunch let's come up with a plan to incentivize the building of new homes and he should go right into deal mode he should go right into populist Trump which everybody loves if he solves two three of these out of five I think it would redeem his presidency and obviously to your point sacks he's just got to end the war he's just got to end the war uh however it's possible and i think the dems may force his hand and then he might say well you know the dems forced me to do it and that gives him this golden bridge to cross look before we totally throw the baby out with the bath butter i think it's important to realize that if you look at reagan's presidency Reagan's presidency has only grown in its stature over time because the structural changes that Reagan made were more obvious to see in its totality the further you got away from it. And I think the reality is, even though the Democrats may not want to admit this, an economic populist will have to understand that keeping the borders closed is an incredibly important thing because the base of people that you need to vote for you want more of the pie. And so sharing more of the pie with people streaming across the border is just mathematically a bad decision. So you have that. Then you have tariffs, which if you partner it with the amount of money that people have committed, if that money follows through and it actually revives domestic manufacturing, the further and further you get away from it and is allowed to compound, that's going to look positive. So I don't think it's fair to say that they lost the midterm, but I don't think it means that history will look at his presidency as failed. Right now, I think what people will say is that these policies, some are obviously good, closing the border. And some, I think people will say are a question mark. And then some, I think people will say, you're going to have to get out of it like Iran. And the further you get away from it, it'll be clear. So what should he do, Jason, to your point is... I think he should probably figure out ways to support the parts of his agenda that will endure. So to your point, what is a great trade-off to make? Keep the border closed. in return for some amount of economic changes. Maybe the Democrats want a higher minimum wage. Okay, maybe what they should do again, I think the simpler thing to do is 125 K or under just wipe out the federal taxes. It's a nothing burger, it doesn't really matter in terms of the revenue that it generates close the loopholes. but trade it off for parts of his core strategy. Because that's what will endure and people will know the President as having had the courage to close the border when nobody else would or when when Biden just let it stream in and then the populist economic president that then sits on top of those decisions in 28, whether it's a Democrat or Republican, We'll have to thank Trump because that's how the votes will have come to them. And that's how people will feel like this economic malaise is being fixed. Okay, Sax, any final thoughts? I'll give you the last word again, aside from getting out of the war, we all agree that's number one on the list. What else can President Trump do in the last 18 months that will be productive for the country and for his legacy? All right, well, look, let me just give you three examples of previous midterm elections. Okay, so We've had big midterm elections before. 1994, Bill Clinton lost the House. It was a huge defeat. That's when Newt Gingrich became Speaker. Clinton still went on to win reelection in 1996, so he made course corrections. Obama lost seven Senate seats and 63 House seats in 2010. That was the slacking. Made adjustments, still won reelection in 2012. So presidents can definitely come back. from midterm defeats. It's pretty obvious. You just have to make corrections. What's the one that didn't work out so well? In 2006, George W. Bush lost a pretty bad midterm because the Iraq War, people were very unhappy with it. This was three years after the start of the Iraq War. And then he wasn't up for reelection, but the Republicans then lost again in 2008. Why? Because Bush, basically, what did he do after the midterms there? The surge. So, you know, he could have adjusted course. Instead, he doubled down. So I think this is really what it comes down to. There are a lot of people, neocons basically, who are encouraging the president to do some version of the surge, some version of doubling down, some strike, pickaxe mountain, carg island, what have you. I think if you do that, you're basically going to reenact the whole 2006, 2008 playbook. If you course correct and get out now, I think you'll have a very successful next two years. That's what it comes down to. All right. We dipped our toe into data centers. Let's go do a double click here and dive right in. Stocks got killed earlier this week. Nvidia, SpaceX, Tesla, AMD, Micron, everything across the board took a massive haircut, close to $4 trillion in market cap wiped out. Now again, Trump has overseen the top ticking of the market for the last two years. So overall, I think the market is still up during the second term. But But this was the second, this was the worst single day in the history of the stock market by total dollars, not percentage, obviously. And it's the worst day for a little while. This puts a bit of a dark cloud over Anthropix IPO. And of course, after that, OpenAI's PolyMarket, our great partner in PolyMarket. Thanks for Shane for coming on on Tuesday. says that they're going to have a 71% chance of going public this year. It was 95% before the midterms and the Wall Street Journal reported today that the haircut could be baked in now, instead of 1.5 to 2 trillion and then going to three or 4 trillion as Gavin Baker said on this podcast, we could be looking at a 1 trillion 1.0 x trillion Today, markets have rebounded a bit. And all of this is based upon Chamath. Are these data centers going to go forward or not? Are they going to be stopped? And then what is going on with governor specifically, Sachs evoked what happened here with Abbott losing to Gina, you know, Hossa, who took the time to do a little presser last night and give her position went on all the top shows. She's being pretty clear. She wants a great deal. And it doesn't seem like she's against them. She's gonna let people build them out until 2028. But it's unclear what happens after that point. You're obviously connected, I think, to mock to a lot of the major players in the AI space. what's going to happen with data centers can the democrats afford to pop the ai bubble by then putting cold water and slowing down data centers because that will tank the economy i think we all understand that so is that in their best interest and is this posturing and positioning to get better deals for their local communities as is their job there's an incredible video where the spacex team went to cochise county in arizona to present their plans for this new six gigawatt data center and If I had to characterize that video, it's on X if you want to find it. But it's these two very bright, earnest people from SpaceX trying to explain how they're going to reduce electricity costs by 40%. They don't use water. They'll reduce property taxes by 20%. They will be able to fund enough revenues to pay off a bond in the county. And it's just a litany of things. Yeah. Meanwhile, the audience is just screaming. And what you see, the two people were very poised. Riley and Katie, those are their names, good SpaceX employees. They should be proud of how they conducted themselves. But they were getting run over, if you listen to this video. And my takeaway is, Jason, that this is an emotional issue that is not tethered to the facts, as Friedberg says. It represents a totem around the oligarchy and the economic crisis. fissure that exists in the US economy. But it also represents that the deals that have happened are a little gratuitous, meaning, should it really be the case that the most powerful seven or eight companies need a tax break to invest 30, 50, $80 billion, then generate three, four, $500 billion? Probably not. Now, they're doing smart deals, because that's what made sense. But I think what the incoming governors are going to say is these things are off the table. And instead, we want to have directly measurable economic impacts before we even entertain this. I think what it means is we're going to see a slowdown. And I think what that does is it benefits the hyperscalers because they have existing capacity. I think it's very bad for the meal clouds because they're renters. And it's pretty bad for the foundational models because they are so short this capacity and they needed to grow. So to the extent that these frontier models are so much better than everybody else's product, they are the ones that need this capacity. It sets the hyperscalers to be a kingmaker. And they have this interesting game theory now. Can you just say who the hyperscalers are just so people understand the difference between them? Yeah, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Google, SpaceX. And what they'll be able to do is make a decision. Path number one is continue to rent in the way that you're doing it today. So the status quo rent to some customers, large corporates, right rent to the Neo clouds rent to the foundational models. That's what they're doing today. Everybody does that. But then there's the path less traveled, which all of a sudden becomes really interesting. You could decide to take all of the incremental compute and advantage your own products. So Google has a ton of capacity coming online. they could say, I'm going to give it to Gemini, what does that do, it actually allows Gemini to catch up in quality, relative to the foundational models. Why? Because if you constrain the amount of assets that can actually generate compute, and a smaller surface area of it is available to the leading companies, Those leading companies will have to pay more, the user experience will decay, and then other products can have time to catch up. And now that is important, because anthropic and open AI are in a very fast recursive loop, they're on a 60 to 90 day loop and improving their models. So now all of a sudden, without an infinite amount of supply coming online, you can slow these folks down. That's that's the path less traveled, then There is the crazy path. Crazy path. You should look for this one very narrow thing. You and I talked about this before on the pod, but SpaceX and Ampropix compute deal has a mutual 90 day out. Ampropix can term in 90 days. SpaceX can term in 90 days, terminate. If SpaceX says, I'm going to terminate this compute in 90 days, that is the king making move. Why? It's a disproportionate amount of the compute that anthropic needs. It allows SpaceX to reprice that compute at the spot rate, which is probably double the market rate, right? And the market rate and it and it's probably not just double, it could probably triple. So whatever revenue you see on SpaceX's balance sheet from ant could two to three x, and ant would have no choice except to immediately capitulate and take the higher price. It would also show all of the other hyperscalers that they are very far away from having economic yield that is optimized. And so then it forces them to consider, should I be giving it to myself? Should I be selling it to the other people? It then forces the neo clouds to take all of this money that they've raised, whether it's debt or equity, and say I have two choices, which is to buy as much compute today as I can at whatever price it's available, because the other path is assured destruction and bankruptcy for me because I'm just out of the game. And so what do they do? They will take the last gasp and do whatever they have. So I think all the game theory Jason, we're literally comes down to this one deal and whether Elon decides to rip it because if he rips it, watch out. Yeah. And the other two factors here, free bird, and just some predictions. Right now, we have the tokens here in the United States. If the governors decide they want to put the screws tight on big tech hyperscalers and neo clouds, and they want to slow this down, they will need to understand that these data centers could be put in Canada, in Mexico, in Singapore, in Malaysia, and many other locations, the Middle East is a little bit off the table because of the war war ends, you start putting these data centers in the Middle East, then the job of doing the next large model will not occur free bird on US soil, it might occur in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Malaysia, Singapore, we're going to be a net importer of tokens. And this will be the biggest cell phone ever, because all those 300 $400,000 jobs building these data centers are going to go away, all of that tax will be collected locally in Malaysia, where Google is putting a huge data center, and the data can make it around the world quite quickly. It doesn't need to be in the United States, which these governors are going to learn a very hard lesson in globalization. what are your thoughts here on the data centers being banned or if it is just posturing and then freeberg could we see the united states become a net importer of tokens as opposed to a net exporter well they might ban the use of ai too okay well now we're going to Yeah, a very far out prediction. That's being floated. I mean, that's the conversation right now. Okay, unpack that. Who's having the conversation? What exactly is the proposal? Because that seems to me to be a little far out there. The farther left you go, the more vocal politicians get on this point, which is no one sees the quote benefit of AI, and they don't want to see AI being developed, being deployed, or being used. That's the general statements that are that are being made. So they want to ban both its development, its deployment, they want to ban data centers, they want to ban technology companies from making models, and they want to ban companies from using the models. And I think this sort of rhetoric leads to somewhere that's obviously more constrained than we are today. What are the chances something crazy like that happens, but handicap it for us here. 10 california passed legislation and gavin use them vetoed it i think it's much higher than 10 we're seeing state-based legislation i mean sax spent quite a lot of time on this but there's a patchwork of hundreds of laws that are passing all over the country trying to regulate model development model deployment model utilization what they're allowed to do whether the local state government gets to audit and inspect how the models operate uh how people are using the models what they're what do you say sax answer his uh And fundamentally, remember, a model is just a bunch of software. It's a code. It's a point about free speech. Can I actually run code on a computer? That is a restriction on, you know, someone basically reading a book is a way to think about it. Because at the end of the day, you're inputting and outputting digits, ones and zeros. True sovereignty. Yeah. And remember, we have laws. And we have regulations about what do those ones and zeros do. So if those ones and zeros go and take money out of your bank account and put them in mine, I broke a law, I'm a felon, I'm going to get convicted of that felony. If that is used to create a weapon that is illegal, I broke the law, that is a felony. And you can go down the long list of things that people should be concerned about. So you have to ask yourself the question, if we already have laws that protect ourselves from the consequence of people using this sort of speech, this sort of software, then what are we actually doing? And I do think once again, that the primal, call it unconscious political state is that there is something that threatens the state, that threatens government itself. And I think that that's a big part of the motivation here. And I've said for a long time, there's a power play. The question is, and this is me waxing philosophical for a second, is doesn't organization like Anthropic or whomever, end up in a place where they're regulatorily aligned with the state, such that the state has unlimited access to that model's capabilities to development and deployment, and individual citizens and companies do not. And this is almost like, if you go back, the modern issue, the Second Amendment issue, is no longer about who has the bullets and the guns. it's about who has this technology because if the state has the technology but the citizens and the businesses don't then the state has supreme power and remember there's no such thing as a state that doesn't have central planning and command which means you are giving a small group of people an extraordinary amount of power and the whole point of the united states and the whole point of the second amendment was to always have a check on that power okay so if the state ends up getting all of the ai and no one else gets the ai then you no longer have a check on the power I think this is like you're getting into Dr. Doom scenarios. I think you're completely wrong. I think there's like a 1% chance something crazy like this happens. But I like that you exist in the world, Freebird, to present it because you are the backstop to this level of lunacy. Chances you... I'm pointing out, by the way, J. Cal, let me... Call me Dr. Doom all you want, but this is a fundamental question about what's the intention of this country. The intention of the country was individual liberty. Yes, of course. The rights of the citizen, the rights of the individual. It is not about state power. And it is not about us. And we have a lot of laws that protect citizens from each other. What we're doing now is creating a different system that extends well beyond the founding principle of the United States to give a small group of actors an incredible amount of power that they're going to centrally command and control. Okay, I think that that's something that we need to pay attention to. And I'm not saying this is happening and the world's over, blah, blah, blah. That's why I'm saying like, percent. It's not it's not binary. As the policies develop, we have to keep in mind what we're doing. You're saying it's a slippery slope. You're saying? Yes. Okay, sacks. But I do think, you know, just like the P doing where people say 10% of people are going to die. I like to put a percentage on it. What are the chances of this happening? Chamath or Saks? You're the closest to this. You know, haven't been the czar. Do you think that this is in the realm of possibility, what Freeberg's describing? If so, maybe you could put a percentage likelihood of it happening. And then what is your take on data centers and the net exporter, net importer of tokens potentiality here? Okay. So it's 100% that Democrats are going to make a major push for AI legislation in the next Congress. The question is what that looks like. Yeah. And I don't think you have to speculate too much to understand where it's going. I believe that Democrats want to create a surveillance and censorship state that's turbocharged by superintelligence. I mean, that's ultimately the end state. How do you get there? You create a department, a federal department of AI. You require that all the so-called frontier models have to be reviewed and approved by that. The regulators give their notes on it. You can't get a model released unless you address their concerns. And their harms will include all the things that the government is telling us that social media companies should be concerned about, like disinformation and misinformation and dissonant thought, all the things that the government was pressuring the social media companies to crack down on and censor during COVID. I mean, how quickly we forget all of this. They're going to basically reenact that whole regime again using AI, and it's going to be infinitely more powerful because we're talking about superintelligence here. So I do believe that that is the regime that we're headed towards. So it may not be exactly the version that Friberg's talking about where Friberg's saying that only the government can use the tools. I don't think that'll be the case. Not that binary sack. Sorry, I meant like, obviously, they're going to get access to models and capabilities that the public doesn't. At the end of the day, any amount of distinction between what a central state actor gets and what the general public gets gets is really where that distinction of power arises. And it's really what makes it difficult for the founding principles to persist, which would be a quasi de facto nationalization of the technology here, Chamath. So what's your take on this? I'm going to force everybody to try to pin you guys down a little bit. You think that this nationalization of the technology, the government having the best version, everybody else in the United States of corporations, individuals having 60 70 80% of that version, you think that's a possibility here? No, I don't think this is the priority. Again, I think people will get animated about this issue, but I don't think this matters. And I think that to the extent that people legislate an oligopoly, it'll further entrench economic power. And I think that that's counter to what these people want. So I think when they put the, they connect the dots, i don't think that that's what's going to get legislated i don't think they have the energy for that and i think at the end of it what's going to get legislated is a quid pro quo okay the quid pro quo is this the government gets more power and the duopoly of closed model companies get more regulatory capture or moats around their business that's going to be the quid pro quo the government's going to come in the democratic congress is going to say look we have to regulate this it's unsafe What do you think those companies are going to do? Do you think they're going to say, no, you can't do that? They're going to say, okay, let's work together on this. I think what's going to happen is that the government ends up with more power and those companies end up with regulatory protection. I don't think so. I think that to the extent that anybody legislates AI, I think it's going to be broad-based and include a lot of coverage around data centers and AI factories. And to the extent that that happens, maybe you'll get some regulatory capture on the one end, but you're going to constrain the supply so severely on the other, that the that the real people that will be in control of it are meta Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and SpaceX. And so you have to remember, the foundational model companies are not home free. What is home free mean that they have a fortress balance sheet, a profitable business model and and quasi infinite compute for their own ambitions. And right now they are renters. And the renter class in data centers as of Tuesday is very much at risk. And so if anything, I think what's going to happen is all the renter classes will get co opted. For example, I don't know if you guys saw today, but Google just took over a Crusoe data center. They co-opted the renter. They're like, you're gone. We're going to take it over. They did? Yeah. So why is that happening? It's because they have all of the core critical ingredients, specifically the power. So I think even a red capture campaign can only work to the extent the government then goes and violates all these other rules and says, here's all this free electricity and go build wherever you want. And we don't care about energy, because there's no money to pay for that. And there's no political will to do that. So I think the practical reality is that you have the mag seven or mag eight have more power. And when they look at that calculus, I don't think politicians want that at all either side. I did a calculation this week. I was looking at the phenomenal impact that agents are having inside of our venture capital firm launch. And we're spending $50,000, $40,000, $50,000 a year. Say the name of your venture capital firm. Launch. Thank you. Where can I go to learn more about that? To launch.com. Thank you. Thank you very much. I'm trying to let people know I have a day job beyond podcasting. I invest in 100 companies a year. And we have 20 people. We're spending like $50,000 a year, I think, $40,000, $50,000 on these subscriptions. Grok. Claude being the main ones, I estimate we're getting $2 million in value from that I estimate we're getting about a million dollars in incremental revenue for I estimate we're getting maybe 15 to 21 in incremental revenue for the dollars we spend. In other words, the velocity of our investments is going up because we've automated everything. And the velocity in which we create new media properties is going up because we've automated everything we're building systems. And only 10 or 20% of people in corporate America are using this technology every day on a regular basis. In other words, there's somewhere between five and 10 times as many people to start using this every day. And I believe when they go to agentic, they start using this because it's so accessible to the average human being. Everything gets abstracted, you don't have to learn to do code or set up your rig or your harness, you just tell it what you want. And it uses 50 times as much. So I think there's 500 to 1000 times the need for this when that happens. this compute is going to go wherever it needs to go. And I can tell you what we're doing is only 70 80% of what the frontier models are capable of. We're not solving Navy or Stokes, obviously. And so we're on the verge of ordering everybody a Mac Studio under 12k for $20,000, which would mean $400,000 in compute on people's desktops and running local models first, and then falling back to them because we don't want to be throttled, we want to have unmetered intelligence. So offshore data centers will be the trend of the next two years. That's what you're going to see and desktop usage of local models. I'll just make that prediction here. Yeah, well, let me can I respond? And open source, obviously, is the power of that. I think you're onto something, J. Cal. Look, when we're talking about AI regulation in the next two years, I think we need to separate. There's two different things, right? There's federal and there's state. what the feds are going to deal with is the ai safety and creating a federal department of ai and all of those orwellian sorts of risk around what could turn into censorship and surveillance and control okay that's one bucket of issues. There's another bucket of issues around infrastructure, which will be dealt with at the state and local level, right? And both of them are going to play out. Now, at the state and local level, I think people are just being way too optimistic about what this election means. I mean, I'm seeing like Gavin Baker saying, oh, don't worry, you know, Ineosso, she seems totally reasonable. She's not threatening any projects. And, you know, I've watched interviews with her. Look, I went and watched the interviews that Gavin watched and i don't see the things that i agree saying she does not say that existing projects are protected she simply says that there'll be no new permits issued until they pass legislation you're right dealing with the issues she's talking about i saw an analyst what are the issues she's talking about i'll explain it but look i saw an analyst from semi analysis then come out and say that you do realize that projects that are under construction right now don't necessarily have every single permit they need to actually open for business. In other words, once you've constructed the data center, you may still have to get an air pollution permit. There's various kinds of permits that sometimes you don't get till the end. So if you take what she's saying seriously and literally that there'll be no new permits passed until this new regulatory regime comes into effect, we could end up with a bunch of stranded, half-finished projects. Now, I'm not saying that's not going to happen. I'm not criticizing her because I don't know what she's going to do. She hasn't even taken office yet. I'm simply pointing out that this could go a lot of ways. You know, they could do this in a reasonable way or an unreasonable way. So you could end up with a lot of half-finished projects. My base case is that the projects that are fully permitted will get done in 2027, but I don't think there's going to be major new projects in this new regime for a long time for the simple reason that there's no political incentive for anyone to grant a new permit or a new project. What's their incentive? Think about this. In this last election, you had both democrats and republicans running campaign attack ads on any politician who approved any data center So think about if you're a politician or you're just like a civil servant who maybe wants to move up the ladder. What is your incentive to stamp approval on anything? I don't see it. I mean, I don't see anyone who is ambitious politically wanting to stick their neck out in any way to approve anything over the next four years. So look, I think probably the ones that are already approved and fully permitted, I think those probably get done. but the ones that are not approved yet good luck i think it's going to be very difficult so i think we get by in 2027 i think they'll still be meaningful capex i get really worried about 2028 and the democrats i think in a way have a perverse incentive around this because if that capex tanks in 2028 they'll blame trump for that right yeah but they already have set the table they have so such amazing footprint right now they're already in the pole position tanking the economy i think opens up an attack vector for them i think they're much better off just saying here's what we want and extract value from them just extract value we want free electricity we want schools we want this just negotiate hard and if you don't yeah yeah and if they don't if the data centers and the these governors whose job it is to fight for their people and get the best deals, just like it's the company's job to get the best location, the best deal for their shareholders, they can't come to an arrangement. Again, these things can be put in Canada, these things can be put in Mexico, these things can be put anywhere and we have Starlink and fiber lines, it's extremely easy. extremely easy it's very common to run fiber cables everywhere around the world it's an incredibly speed efficient system we have here it's not like 20 years ago where you know loading your gmail in japan was extremely difficult it's very easy it's very crisp we have cdn technology it's going to be a no-brainer let alone the prescience of spacex which is severely undervalued as a stock and is space s tesla i'm i've been buying shares through this whole insanity. They're going to space to bring them up there now seems like a pretty brilliant idea, doesn't it? Like if they're gonna block it all of a sudden, once again, Elon saw around the corner, did he not? Well, do you remember, I think we talked about this, which is, you know, we said his 90 day out with anthropic, It's probably because he negotiated and he saw around the corner, not the other way around. Because people used to think, oh my God, this is really bad for SpaceX that they could pull the ripcord. That's not going to happen. It's now the question is, does it happen the other way around? It's pretty interesting. I think Elon and the anthropic team have a pretty positive working relationship. Oh, this has nothing to hold on, I want to be clear, this has nothing to do with their working relationship, or whether anthropic is a good or bad company, or SpaceX is a good or bad company. This has nothing to do with that. This is a spreadsheet. And the spreadsheet will dictate the answer. And the question is, if spot spikes, You are economically forced to do this beyond a certain threshold. Okay, I'll take a I'll take a slightly other side to that. There's still a lot of acrimony between open AI, Sam Altman and Elon. Elon has aligned himself very deeply with the anthropic team. They have an incredible working relationship. I don't think he just throws it open to spot, even if that was the most short-term, mid-term, economic model. Let me finish this. That's not what I'm saying. You're not listening to what I'm saying. Just let me finish. Then you can counter. You guys are allowed to let me finish my sentences. I know that's hard to believe. Not if you miscast what I'm saying. You can totally respond to it. Just take a beat. Moving to spot might be the right ruthless economic decision. I think that the decision made by Elon is going to be in part informed by his relationship with Sam Altman or lack of one and by the loyalty of anthropic and their success, making them a great long term partner, especially for the space data center business. So I could see him instead of throwing it up to spot saying, Hey, let's meet somewhere in the middle. I think it's a longer, I'm not saying throw it out. But what I'm saying is when spot moves sufficiently, even a long term offtake moves so much that existing contracts are negative EV. And so you just got to move existing contracts to positive EV territory. And if you can get out in 90 days and reprice something into positive EV territory, you should. So my point is more that beyond a certain point, if a bunch of data centers get slowed down, a bunch of constraint happens, there's going to be a lot less capacity than people think the dollar cost per megawatt per month is going to go through the roof, the dollar cost of a GPU hour is going to go through the roof. And the people that will be willing to pay the premium are going to be the ginormous companies with huge balance sheets. And so you could just sell it to Google or Meta if you wanted to. You don't have to sell it to open AI. Okay, Sax, the really interesting part of all this, just to dip into the science corner, is these, this infrastructure does two things, right inference, people using the product every day, and then building the next model. If you want to run away with the next model, cornering compute at any price, is a huge advantage. So for Google, which has been behind, if they use all their compute to make their make their model, or if Microsoft or Nvidia decide they want to start accelerating their internal models, which they have, this could be this could determine who has the best frontier model over to use x final word. I'll say something very quickly. When you're talking about infrastructure of this magnitude, these gigawatt-powered data centers, they cost around $50 billion. Nobody can make that investment in conditions of uncertainty. The last thing you ever want to do is break ground on a project like that. Then when you're halfway through, you get enjoined, you end up with a strike by your workers or some community group that stops you. You really need conditions of certainty before you make an investment like that. And I think that we're headed towards conditions of great uncertainty. You've got our biggest data center states where there's basically been a regime change, and all those governors are basically indicating that they favor moratorium until XYZ happens. They can be a little bit different in what that is. My sense is that, look, it may not be a conspiracy to hurt the Trump economy. It may just be the reality of what's going on. But I would expect that I think there'll still be meaningful capex in 2027 as a base case, meaning those fully permitted approved projects can move forward or finish. But I think by 2028, I would expect that the pipeline will either be closed or significantly reduced, and that will have a big economic impact. And I do think that Democrats will try to blame the president for that, even though they will be solely responsible for this. All right. Everybody has been demanding, Friedberg, that we do a science corner on this exponential time hypotheses. I guess a layman's way of explaining it would be computers can't solve important problems quickly. But there seems to be some science and some recent innovations that say maybe this hypothesis is no longer true. Please inform our audience. The reason for doing this Science Corner on this OpenAI publication is just to highlight some of the benefit and value that comes out of AI. These are like pretty substantial breakthroughs that are happening all the math hypotheses they've published on. This one's called the exponential time hypothesis. And it starts with like the most fundamental question in computer science, which is can a problem be solved with a computer? And if so, how long does it take? And that tells you whether it's actually practically computable. This is the key point of computer science, we want to create these machines that can solve our problems. And There's a class of problems that are called P-problems where you can solve them in what's called polynomial time. The bigger the problem of a particular type, the longer it takes. And polynomial time just means size cubed or size squared. It tells you how many seconds or minutes or hours it might take on a specific computer to solve that problem. And so the problem as it gets bigger, takes more time. And then there's what are called NP problems. These are problems where you can very quickly figure out if the answer is correct. So like, you know, it can take a long time to solve the big Sudoku puzzle, but you can check the Sudoku puzzle in a couple of seconds and see if it's right. That's an NP problem. And the key question in computer science has been, do P problems equal NP problems? Meaning, can you actually solve any problem that you can quickly check in a short period of time? And if so, then everything is computable. The entirety of the universe is computable. And that's the big question in computer science. This idea of this exponential time hypothesis, which was proposed in 1999 by a couple of guys. And they said for a specific type of problem called a 3SAT problem, which we don't really need to get into, the amount of time it takes is exponential depending on how big the problem is. So the bigger the problem gets, it's some, you know, number to the nth power. So it scales exponentially in terms of how long it would take a computer to solve it, which means that they have demonstrated that there is a class of problems that can never be solved in a short period of time, and therefore that entire class of problems means that p does not equal n. So that's been their hypothesis since 1999. And what OpenAI did is they disproved that. And they disproved it in 175 page paper. And it comes down to this one little formula, which you can pull up on the screen here, Nick, which we don't need to spend a lot of time analyzing to understand. But effectively, this little formula right here is OpenAI's paper demonstrating that the outcome of the paper demonstrating that this three set problem, this particular class of problems in computer science can be solved in sub-exponential time, which means it will not take an exponential amount of time. So they disproved this big exponential time hypothesis that everyone thought was real. And what that means is that P could still equal NP, which means that theoretically every problem in the universe can be solved with a computer. The solution, it's being evaluated now, so, you know, it's not fully kind of verified by third parties yet. People are still trying to understand it. It's 175 pages with a very novel set of approaches that it's taken to try and get there. They did the whole thing end-to-end in less than 10 days. Some reports have argued they did it in a few hours. And so this was a deeply challenging question in computer science and has been for 27 years. Is this exponential time hypothesis real or not? And they just proved that it's not. And they did it in a few hours. So it may be esoteric for the majority of people listening to this, but it does a couple of things. Number one, it keeps in play the idea that everything in the universe can be analyzed and every problem theoretically could still be solved with a computer. And number two, if it's amazing that OpenAI was able to do this in a few hours, and deliver this sort of a result that mathematicians and computer scientists have been struggling over for 27 years. And this proof is so far holding. So, you know, this is amazing. And so everyone in computer science, I think, was kind of shocked when this came out. Absolutely. Yeah, I was shocked in terms of how it was presented, how they solved it, it was very novel. And again, it's one of these moments of humility for mathematicians for computer science being like, holy, I would have never done that. And so, so actually, we're just very heated about the exponential time hypotheses in the group chat for the past three weeks. So when you hear Freiburg teed up here this crisply, how does this impact your thoughts on 2028 election and the future of humanity? Look, I think that... AI, super intelligence, whatever you want to call it, is going to create a lot of good things. The fear around it, maybe some fear is justified because anything that seems powerful can make people afraid. Obviously, the future is unknown, so you can't prove exactly what's going to happen. But I tend to think there's going to be so many benefits to this technology. Frankly, if we don't do it, China is going to. They're going to be the ones that benefit. J-Cal, you're right that if the US doesn't build the data centers, they'll get built in other countries. and we'll be paying to import the tokens. Very dangerous. Mexico and Canada. Very dangerous situation. It's so dumb. Yeah. Crazy. Chamath, I saw you nodding there. You have a background in computer science. My formal education was in electrical engineering, but... I mean, I've worked around software engineers for so long now. This is an incredibly interesting insight. All right. Another amazing episode of the All In podcast, the number one, two and three podcast in the world. In terms of the rankings, I think, wow, what a week we had. We're number one in the live stream and obviously four weeks running. We've hit number one. Thank you to the audience. And we truly appreciate you being on this journey with us. And you can always expect as candid a discussion in the world as possible, which it was very interesting in your discussion with Rick Rubin, Chamath, he was very, very taken with the pockets. And he is a somebody who understands art and unique moments in the world. I thought it was very interesting that he kept pressing you on what's the magic here, because he's He's kind of the Sherpa of magic in many ways. And I think the magic here is that we're candid and we break each other's chops and we try to move the ball forward with our candidates. And you had some very nice things to say about all of us, Chamath. And I just wanted to say thank you. You are my brother and I love you. Thank you. I love you too. I mean, what I said to him basically at the Corvid is we are a family and we get get together and chop it up once a week. And it's very rare to have a window into family squabbles. I think that's basically why it works. It's kind of unique. That's maybe why the Kardashians work. Maybe. You had such a compliment. It was the greatest compliment I think I've got in my life. He said, you know what J. Cal is? You know that quote from the scene from the town where Ben Affleck goes to Jeremy Renner and he says, I need you to come with me. We're going to mess some people up. and you can't ask me any questions and Jeremy Renner looks up and says whose car we paid yours I've always felt bad about you that was very complimentary all right we'll see you next time love you besties Besties are back! *laughs* *laughs* Oh man! We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're all just used to this like sexual tension that we just need to release somehow. You're the B. What? You're the B. B? What? We need to get merch. I'm going all- What? I'm going all-","textShort":"Midterm Blood Bath, $4T AI Sell Off, Data Center Freeze, What’s Next for Trump\n\nAll right, everybody, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world, the all in podcast. And I'd like to start by saying that all in recognizes that we are on the sacred land in Austin,…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2v8b062QzTI"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-07T17:20:33.436Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"e35522b6-2b87-4b11-a86a-160216326944","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["THE REALITY IS 3 TRILLION TO 4 TRILLION WILL BE SPENT.","IT WILL JUST BE MORE ELONGATED"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Dan Ives expects AI investment to continue, though the spending cycle may stretch over more years.","topic":"ai spending outlook"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["THE MARKET IS SET FOR A REBOUND","WE WILL LOOK AT EARNINGS, OF COURSE, GROWTH, AND WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM HERE"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Natalia says technical positioning could support a near-term rebound, though she sees winners and losers ahead.","topic":"market rebound outlook"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["NEO-CLOUDS, THEY 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Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Chain Reaction Tech Selloff, New Chief of Staff\n\n>> COMING UP ON BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND PRESIDENT TRUMP MAKES A CHANGE AT THE TOP. PRES. TRUMP: STEPHEN WAS WITH ME SINCE THE BEGINNING, HE GETS IT POLITICALLY AND IS A VERY GOOD MAN. A GREAT >> MANAGER. >>EMIGRATION HARDLINER STEPHEN MILLER TAKES THE REINS AS WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF. WHAT DEMOCRATIC LEADERS ARE SAYING. >> THE BLUE WAVE SETS OFF A SELLOFF. WITH DATA CENTER EXPANSION MEANS FOR TECH STOCKS AND INFRASTRUCTURE. >> CRUISES GO FROM CRINGE TO COST-EFFECTIVE FOR MILLENNIAL TRAVELERS. WHILE YOUNGER GENERATIONS ARE GETTING ON BOARD WITH VACATIONS AT SEA. [INTRO MUSIC PLAYING] YOU FROM OUR WORLD HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK. I'M CHRISTINA RUFFINI. DAVID: I'M DAVID GURA WITH LISA MATEO. WELCOME TO OUR VIEWERS ON ALL PLATFORMS. WHAT A WEEK WE HAD. THE ELECTION, A MARKET ROUTE. CHRISTINA: WE WERE IN TWO DIFFERENT CITIES FOR THE ELECTION. I ALMOST MISSED YOU. DAVID: ALMOST IS THE OPERATIVE WORD. PRESIDENT TRUMP DECIDED HE WOULD CHANGE SOME OF HIS SUPPORT STAFF IN THE WHITE HOUSE. CHRISTINA: IN THE WAKE OF THE ELECTION YOU HAVE THE PRESIDENT SAYING HE WOULD WORK WITH DEMOCRATS, HE THINKS HE CAN FIND WAYS TO FIND COMMON GROUND, THEN SWAPPING OUT CHIEF OF STAFF SUSIE WILES FOR DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF STEPHEN MILLER, THE ARCHITECT OF SO MANY OF THE POLICIES PEOPLE SAY THEY VOTED AGAINST IN THE BLUE WAVE. IMMIGRATION, VISA BANS. DAVID: A LONGTIME CONFIDANT OF THE PRESIDENT, WITH HIM SINCE 2015. WE WILL DIG INTO THE IMPLICATIONS. THE PRESIDENT TALKING A LOT ABOUT HIS VARIOUS PROJECTS. MAYBE NOT THAT THE TERM PROJECT BUT WHAT HE IS WORKING WITH IN D.C.. CHRISTINA: BALLROOMS, ARCHES. DAVID: YOU SAW SOME OF THESE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS? CHRISTINA: I DIDN'T. I WENT TO WORK AND I CAME BACK. DAVID: THAT'S THE UPDATE ON THAT. CHRISTINA: THANKS FOR SHOUTING THAT OUT FOR ME, DAVID GURA. LISA: DAYS AFTER THE REPUBLICANS LOST CONTROL IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS, STEPHEN MILLER, A LONGTIME MEMBER OF PRESIDENT TRUMP CENTER CIRCLE, KEY PART OF THE IMMIGRATION POLICIES, SUSIE WILES WAS THE FIRST WOMAN TO EVER SERVE IN THAT POST. THE PRESIDENT TOLD REPORTERS HE JUST WANTED TO MAKE A CHANGE. PRES. TRUMP: I THINK SUSIE HAS DONE A GREAT JOB, BUT I JUST THINK -- STEPHEN HAS BEEN GREAT, AND WE'VE GOT TO MAKE, WE'VE GOT TO MAKE MOVES. LISA: WHO COULD BE A PART OF THE NEXT SHAPE UP AT THE WHITE HOUSE. PETE HEGSETH WAS IN JEOPARDY OF LOSING HIS JOB. THE PRESIDENT SAID HE HAS CONFIDENCE IN THE SECRETARY OF WAR. PRES. TRUMP: WE'VE WON TWO WARS. WE'VE WON VENEZUELA AND TAKEN OUT BILLIONS AND BILLIONS AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ALREADY AND WILL BE TAKING OUT MANY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND GET ALONG VERY WELL. YOU COULD CALL IT A TERRITORY. YOU COULD CALL IT WHATEVER YOU WANT. WE WON THAT WAR IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. LISA: TRUMP SAID EXCESS WAS A BIG PART OF THAT. AXIOS IS REPORTING VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE HAS SPENT THE LAST TWO WEEKS INVOLVED IN INDIRECT TALKS WITH IRAN. SOURCES SAY IT'S TO REACH A NEW CEASE-FIRE AND RESUME NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS. THE SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO WILL HAVE HIS FIRST INTERNATIONAL TRIP SINCE THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. THE STATE DEPARTMENT SAID HE WOULD LEAVE THIS WEEKEND TO ATTEND A GROUP OF SEVEN FOREIGN MINISTERS MEETING IN FRANCE FALLING SPECULATION THAT RUBIO MIGHT CHOOSE TO LEAVE THE ADMINISTRATION EARLY, SOMETHING HE AND HIS AIDES HAVE DENIED. AT LEAST ONE PERSON HAS BEEN KILLED AND SEVERAL INJURED AFTER RUSSIAN MISSILES STRUCK CARE OF IN A STATEMENT ON TELEGRAM, AN ENERGY FACILITY IN CENTRAL UKRAINE WAS STRUCK THREE TIMES, DAMAGING EQUIPMENT AND CAUSING A FIRE. SOURCES TOLD BLOOMBERG, UKRAINE STRUCK AN OIL REFINERY IN THE REGION OF SOUTHWESTERN RUSSIA. THIS COMES AS UKRAINE PREPARES FOR NEW TALKS NEXT WEEK WITH RUSSIA AND THE U.S.. IT COULD BE THE END TO ONE OF THE MOST EXPENSIVE AND DIVISIVE POLITICAL BATTLES IN CALIFORNIA. DDHQ SAYS VOTERS ARE PROJECTED TO REJECT A FIRST OF ITS CONTACTS ON BILLIONAIRES WITH 46% BACKING THE MEASURE AND 54% OPPOSED. PROPOSITION 40 WOULD HAVE IMPOSED A ONE-TIME 5% TAX ON THE WEALTH OF BILLIONAIRES WHO WERE CALIFORNIA RESIDENTS AT THE START OF 2026 WITH MOST PROCEEDS DEDICATED TO SHORE UP HEALTH CARE. CHRISTINA: IT'S INTERESTING THE TRENDS IN THE REST OF THE ELECTION CYCLE THAT'S GOING TO GO THROUGH. THANKS, LISA. DAVID: MIDTERM ELECTIONS USHERED IN NOT JUST DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY IN CONGRESS BUT A WILD AND HISTORIC SWING IN THE MARKETS DRIVEN BY UNCERTAINTY OVER TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN AI SPENDING. CHRISTINA: THAT'S RIGHT. THE NASDAQ RECOVERED SOME AFTER DROPPING MORE THAN 5% THE DAY BEFORE. THURSDAY SAW THE WORST DAY OF MORE THAN A YEAR FOR ALL THREE MAJOR STOCK INDICES. JOINING US IS DAN IVES, PARTNER AND SENIOR MANAGER FOR IVES AND COMPANY AND BLOOMBERG'S OWN NATALIA. SINCE YOU CAME IN ON SATURDAY AND WE APPRECIATE YOU, WE WILL START WITH YOU. HOW DID THIS HAPPEN? IT HAS BEEN GOING LIKE THIS. WE SAW A RALLY, DIP, RECOVERY. NATALIA: I THINK THE SET UP FOR PEOPLE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE CAPEX FOR THE BIGGEST TECH COMPANIES. HEDGE FUNDS CAUGHT EXPOSURE PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY. WHEN I SPOKE TO SOURCES AND SAID WHAT YOU EXPECT, FOR MANY OF THEM THE ELECTION WAS A CLEARING EVENT FOR THE STOCK MARKET WHICH MEANS NO MORE UNCERTAINTY, NO MATTER WHO WINS IT'S GOING TO BE A RALLY. MAJOR WALL STREET TRADING DESKS ENCOURAGED CLIENTS TO BUY STOCKS AHEAD OF THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. AND THEN WE SAW THIS RALLY ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT DAY THE MARKET WOKE UP AND DECIDED, ACTUALLY, IT'S NOT GOING TO BE GOOD FOR THE U.S., SO COMPLETELY A BIG REVERSAL. WE SAW THE NASDAQ PLUNGED BY THE MOST, THE VOLATILITY INDEX SPIKE. I SAW A PRIME BROKERAGE DATA FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND IT SHOWED HEDGE FUNDS SOLD U.S. TECH STOCKS BY THE MOST EVER. IT IS A WEEK OF SUPERLATIVES. DAVID: A WEEK OF SUPERLATIVES. DAN, I WANT TO GET YOUR PERSPECTIVE ON WHAT YOU WATCHED UNFOLD AND HOW YOU NAVIGATED THIS, GRIPPING THE DESK AND WONDERING WHAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN OR DID YOU THINK THIS WOULD BE ALARMING BUT NOTHING WITH LASTING SIGNIFICANCE? DAN: IS THE BLUE TITLE WAVE THAT WAS THE GUT PUNCHED BECAUSE OF THE ANTI-AI DATA CENTER PUSH. I THINK WHEN NATALIA IS TALKING ABOUT GOING THROUGH THE TIMELINE I THINK IS ACCURATE, BUT I THINK WE STARTED TO HAPPEN IS THE NEXT DAY THE POLITICAL, YOU KNOW, SORT OF, TALK IN D.C. ON SOCIAL MEDIA WAS EXTREMELY ANTI-DATA CENTER. I THINK IT'S THAT SORT OF THAT BUBBLED UP. HE SOUGHT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE STOCKS, BECAUSE OUR VIEW RIGHT NOW, CAPEX FOR BIG TECH, THAT WAS GOING TO PEEK PROBABLY 2028-2029 PEAKS NEXT YEAR. THE STOCKS REFLECT SOME OF THAT. WHERE THIS GOT OVER ITS SKIS IS THIS SELLOFF IS ALMOST READING AI LIKE IT'S DONE. LIKE IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. GOOGLE IS JUST GOING TO GO BACK TO SEARCH. BECAUSE THE TECHNOLOGY IS COMING, RIGHT. THE REALITY IS 3 TRILLION TO 4 TRILLION WILL BE SPENT. IT WILL JUST BE MORE ELONGATED AND ULTIMATELY THE PEAK COMES EARLIER. THAT'S WHAT THESE STOCKS ARE REFLECTING IN TERMS OF THE BLUE TITLE WAVE, ESPECIALLY IN TEXAS WHERE 30% OF DATA CENTERS WILL BE BUILT. CHRISTINA: DAN, I WAS TALKING -- BECAUSE THIS IS NEW YORK -- A COUPLE OF PEOPLE IN MY BUILDING WHERE EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT THIS IN THE LOBBY. A LOT ARE INVESTORS IN FINANCE. I WAS WONDERING HOW THEY WERE FEELING ABOUT THE AI SPEND AN INVESTMENT. THEY WERE ALL VERY DISMISSIVE OF WHAT WE SAW IN THE ELECTION. THEY THINK THIS IS A BLIP, PANDERING TO VOTERS, AND THEY DON'T THINK POLICY IN THE END WILL REALLY CHANGE, AND IT WILL BE EVENTUALLY BUSINESS AS USUAL. THAT SURPRISED ME, BUT ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF HOW THE MARKETS REACTED. WHERE IS THE DISCONNECT? DAN: PART OF IT IS INVESTORS HAVE BECOME SKEPTICAL OF POLITICIANS. CHRISTINA: FAIR ENOUGH. DAN: FOR GOOD REASON. YOU COULD DISMISS IT. A LOT OF THIS COMES DOWN TO TEXAS AND THE GOVERNOR. THAT IS ALSO WHY I THINK IT WAS VERY IMPORTANT SHE CAME OUT TALKING ABOUT THE DATA CENTER, SHE'S NOT NECESSARILY ANTI-DATA CENTER JUST BIG TECH COMPANIES NEED TO COME TO THE TABLE. BIG TECH HAS CREATED A PR BLACKEYE. IF YOU TELL THE AMERICAN POPULATION WE WILL CUT 50 PERCENT OF WHITE-COLLAR JOBS AND YOUR ELECTRICITY BILL WILL GO HIGHER THEY AREN'T GOING TO HAVE BALLOONS AND CAKE READY FOR THE DATA CENTER. THAT'S GOING TO BE A NEW NARRATIVE. PUTTING JOBS WERE DATA CENTERS ARE. IT IS A NEW GAME IN THAT WAY. CHRISTINA: I FEEL LIKE CRISIS FIRMS WILL BE BUSY IN THE NEXT MONTHS. DAVID: YOU LAYER ON THE AMOUNT OF MONEY THEY SPENT ON THE ELECTIONS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME BLOWBACK. NATALIA WAS TALKING ABOUT AN EXPECTATION, THE SENSE THIS IS THE END OF AI. THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT THE CASE IN LIGHT OF HOW MUCH MONEY AND DEVELOPMENT HAS GONE INTO ALL THIS. WHAT HAVE YOUR SOURCES TOLD YOU ABOUT WHERE THIS GOES FROM HERE? WE HAD A WILD SWING OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS HERE. IS THIS GOING TO BE A PROCESS OF DIGESTION THAT PLAYS OUT OVER THE NEXT WEEKS, MONTHS, WHAT DO THEY THINK ABOUT PROSPECTS GOING FORWARD? NATALIA: IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT POSITIONING BECAUSE THE SELLOFF WAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE SO-CALLED TECHNICAL FACTORS. WE HAVE A HUGE UNIVERSE CALLED SYSTEMATIC FUNDS. WHENEVER THE MARKET DECLINES THEY ACCELERATE SELLING. WHEN WE LOOK AT THE POSITION RIGHT NOW -- CHRISTINA: IS IT AN AUTOMATIC TRIGGER? NATALIA: EXACTLY. THEY DON'T CARE ABOUT FUNDAMENTALS THEY JUST FOLLOW THE STOCK MARKET DIRECTION AND IT'S IMPORTANT. WHEN THEY SELL IT ACCELERATES THE MOVE. EVEN THURSDAY WAS MAYBE NOT AS BAD FROM THE FUNDAMENTAL PERSPECTIVE, BUT IT WAS BAD FROM A TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE. MANY OF THOSE FUNDS HAVE REDUCED EXPOSURE SIGNIFICANTLY, AND INVESTORS I SPOKE WITH SAY THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT BECAUSE NOW THEY HAVE MORE DRY POWDER OR MONEY TO DEPLOY SO MAYBE WE WILL SEE A MORE SHORT-TERM RALLY, BUT FUNDAMENTALS, THE AI TRADE HAS BECOME MORE DIVERSE, SEGMENTED, AND WE WILL LOOK AT EARNINGS, OF COURSE, GROWTH, AND WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM HERE. CHRISTINA: DAN, WE SAW CHIP STOCKS GET HIT ESPECIALLY HARD, DOWN 12%. WHAT ARE THEY FEELING THIS SO ACUTELY? DAN: IT'S THE WORRY THE DATA CENTERS GOING INTO 2029 -- ARE THERE GOING TO BE DATA CENTERS TO PUT IN THEIR IN TERMS OF THE CHIPS? THE SELLOFF IN CHIPS GOT WAY OVERDONE. ESPECIALLY AMD, NVIDIA, AND OTHERS. I THINK AS NATALIA IS TALKING ABOUT YOU NEED TO PARSE OUT WHO WAS ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THIS. IF YOU THINK ABOUT CAPACITY, GIGAWATTS, WHOEVER HAS IT, THEY ARE THE TOP OF THE MOUNTAIN. THAT'S THE HYPERSCALERS. CHIP COMPANIES, OBVIOUSLY THE ORDERS TODAY, STILL 12:1, SO THAT'S GOING TO CONTINUE TO PLAY OUT IN TERMS OF THE GROWTH NUMBERS. NEO-CLOUDS, THEY ARE CLEARLY ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THIS. THERE WILL BE GAME OF THRONES. SOME WILL BE LEFT ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THIS. I THINK THAT'S WHAT INVESTORS ARE DOING. THEY'RE TRYING TO SEPARATE OUT. IN TERMS OF THE SEMI SELLOFF, THEY ARE ALMOST READING THESE STOCKS LIKE THE BLUE WAVE HAS ENDED AI AND THAT'S WRONG. THE REALITY IS, IT'S KNOWN IN D.C., YOU SLOW DOWN AND PUT SAND IN THE GEARS CHINA WINS. THAT'S AN ARMS RACE. THAT'S THE BALANCING ACT FOR HAKEEM JEFFRIES AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. DAVID: WE WILL SEE HOW THAT PLAYS OUT. NATALIA, I WILL START WITH YOU. THIS IS REFRAMED WITH THE WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT THE ANTHROPIC IPO, THE VALUATION OF THE COMPANY. MAYBE YOU CAN TALK ABOUT HOW THAT PROCESS HAS BEEN PLAYING OUT. WE ARE DAYS AWAY FROM IN THIS ROADSHOW BEGINS IN EARNEST AND WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO THAT COMPANY GOING -- GOING PUBLIC. HOW DID THIS SELLOFF CHANGE THE WAY PEOPLE ARE LOOKING AT AND THINKING ABOUT, YES, ANTHROPIC, BUT THE OTHER HYPERSCALERS, BIG AI COMPANIES ON THE PRECIPICE OF GOING PUBLIC? NATALIA: EVEN BEFORE THE ELECTIONS I SPOKE WITH THEM AND SOME OF THEM TOLD ME THE ANTHROPIC IPO COULD BE A BIGGER CLEARING EVENT FOR THE STOCK MARKET. WE SAW A COUPLE OF WEEKS OF REPORTING THAT THE POTENTIAL VALUATION OF ANTHROPIC WOULD BE AROUND $2 TRILLION. WITH THE SELLOFF, OUR STOCK MARKET TEAM REPORTED THAT SOME INVESTORS ARE NOW THINKING ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.5. CHRISTINA: AS LOW AS ONE TRILLION DOLLARS. NATALIA: EXACTLY. I LIKE HOW MAX KETTNER OF HSBC SAID. HE SAID, I DON'T CARE ABOUT A HEADLINE OF $1 TRILLION OR $2 TRILLION IPO'S. HE SAID THE MOST IMPORTANT THING FOR INVESTORS IS THE LACK OF VOLATILITY BECAUSE WE REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED WITH SPACEX. FOR THEM, FOR MANY INVESTORS, IT'S LIKE, GIVE US AN ACCURATE PRICING. WE WILL REASSESS AND WHATEVER. EXACTLY. YES. THERE ARE LOTS OF CONCERNS. ANOTHER OPTION THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE ON THE TABLE, THEY CAN DELAY IPO, BUT THAT CAN BE REALLY BAD FOR THE STOCK MARKET. DAVID: I WANT TO GET YOUR PERSPECTIVE, BRINGING UP MAX KETTNER, ERR ON THE SIDE OF CONSERVATISM. SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SECONDARY. YOUR THOUGHTS AS YOU LOOK AHEAD TO ITS IPO AND OTHER ONES ON THE HORIZON. DAN: THE DEAL WILL HAPPEN ON OUR VIEW. THAT IS STRAIGHT TALK IN TERMS OF WHERE VALUATIONS ARE BEING, BECAUSE AFTER THE SELLOFF AND OF THE NERVOUSNESS, FOR ANTHROPIC THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS TO HAVE A SUCCESSFUL IPO, AND I THINK THAT'S -- THAT WOULD ALSO BE A POSITIVE FOUNDATION ONLY FOR THE ROLE THEY PLAY IN THE AI TRADE. ALTMAN, OPENAI, WILL BE WATCHING THIS BECAUSE THEY ARE RAISING CAPITAL ON THE PRIVATE SIDE. CHRISTINA: I'VE SEEN A LOT OF ANALYSIS THAT THIS WAS A I WONDER IF YOU AGREE OR YOUR TAKE ON THAT? NATALIA: IT'S HARD TO SAY BECAUSE THE NASDAQ PLUNGED TO A THIRD CORRECTION, WIPED OUT ABOUT 15% FROM THE MOST RECENT HIGH. I WOULD SAY AGAIN FROM THE POSITIONING PERSPECTIVE THE MARKET IS SET FOR A REBOUND. HAPPENS. SOME COMPANIES, IF THEY SLOW DOWN CAPITAL EXPENDITURES IT CAN BE GOOD BECAUSE IT'S BETTER FOR FREE CASH FLOW AND IT CAN BE GOOD FOR INVESTORS, AND SO I WOULD SAY, AGAIN, FROM THE TECHNICAL'S PERFECT -- TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE THERE'S MORE PROBABILITY FOR A RALLY, BUT WHO KNOWS. CHRISTINA: DAN, DO YOU WANT TO TAKE A SWING AT THAT? DAN: I THINK A RALLY AT YEAR END AND POLITICIANS FROM THERE STANDS A BIT, ANTHROPIC'S IPO HAPPENS. THIS WILL BE VIEWED FROM A SELLOFF, APRIL 2020 FIVE, LIBERATION DAY, THAT TYPE OF VIOLENT SELLOFF WE SAW FOR THE TECH WINNERS. DAVID: THERE WAS A MAGISTERIAL PEACE ALCOHOLICS PUT TOGETHER LOOKING AT THE ROLE OF AI IN THE BROADER MARKET IN THE ECONOMY. KENT -- MARCHA MAGISTERIAL PEACE OUR COLLEAGUES PUT TOGETHER LOOKING AT THE ROLE OF AI IN THE BROADER MARKET IN THE ECONOMY. MAYBE YOU CAN LOOK AT THE WAY THIS IS SPLIT INTO EVERYTHING AND SO MUCH OF THE MARKET IS UNDERPINNED BY THE AI TRADE. DAN: IT IS THE RIPPLE EFFECT, FROM CATERPILLAR TO LOCKHEED MARTIN TO ENERGY COMPANIES TO FINANCIAL SERVICES -- THAT'S THE REALITY OF WHERE WE ARE. AGAIN, WHEN THERE IS POLITICIANS, THEY ARE SAYING STOP AI, THAT'S -- THE TECHNOLOGY IS COMING. IT'S COMING QUICK AND FAST. I THINK AS IT STARTS TO PLAY OUT IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT THE BIG TECH COMPANIES, IT'S ABOUT THE RIPPLE EFFECT ACROSS ENERGY. IT'S A LOT OF THE GDP GROWTH AND THE SUPER CYCLE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 30 YEARS U.S. IS OUT OF CHINA WHEN IT COMES TO TECH. YOU DON'T WANT POLITICIANS TO ULTIMATELY MAKE SURE THAT THEY OVER-REGULATE AND THAT'S A WIN FOR CHINA. THAT WILL BE THE BALANCING OF THAT PLAYS OUT HERE. I THINK A MULTI-YEAR TECH BULL MARKET IS STILL IN PLACE, THIS WAS JUST A WHITE KNUCKLE, ROLLER COASTER, SCARY MOMENT. CHRISTINA: DAN IVES AND NATALIA. THANK YOU BOTH SO MUCH. APPRECIATE YOUR TIME. IT'S INTERESTING. I'M CURIOUS TO SEE WHERE THIS GOES AND IF THE POLICY SKEPTICS ARE INDEED RIGHT, IT IS BUSINESS AS USUAL. DAVID: THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS WILL HAVE DRAMATIC EFFECT ON U.S. FOREIGN POLICY WITH DEMOCRATS SOON CONTROLLING WHERE THE MONEY GOES. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE WAR IN IRAN, RUSSIA'S WAR IN UKRAINE, AND TRUMP'S FOREIGN POLICY? THAT'S NEXT. ♪THANK YOU FOR JOINING US LIVE ON BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND LISA: I AM LISA MATEO, LET'S UPDATE YOU ON TODAY'S TOP STORIES. PARAGUAY'S SENATE HAS REMOVED THAT THE PRESIDENT FROM OFFICE. THE MOVEMENT OPENS THE DOOR FOR HIM TO FACE POTENTIAL CRIMINAL CHARGES OVER HIS ROLE IN THE COLLAPSE OF THE MAJOR BANK. HE'S A KEY ALLY OF PRESIDENT TRUMP AND OFFERED TO RESIGN, BUT LAWMAKERS VOTED TO REMOVE HIM INSTEAD, DENYING HIM LIFETIME, NONVOTING SENATE SEAT. TWO SENATE CONTEST REMAIN UNRESOLVED IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. BALLOTS ARE STILL BEING COUNTED IN MISSISSIPPI'S SENATE RACE WHERE SCOTT COLOM IS FACING CINDY HYDE-SMITH. YESTERDAY COLOM SAID HE IS CONFIDENT ABOUT THEIR MOVING IN HIS DIRECTION AND THE OPPOSITION NEEDS TO ACCEPT THE RESULTS. >> THAT IS WHAT OUR DEMOCRACY IS ABOUT, PEOPLE CAN'T BE SORE LOSERS COME THEY HAVE TO ACCEPT THE RESULTS, THE PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN, AND I HOPE THEY ACCEPT THE WILL OF THE VOTERS. LISA:'S SENATE RACE IN ALASKA ALSO TIGHT. LEADING BY A SLIGHT MARGIN, THE COUNT COULD DRAG ON FOR DAYS DUE TO OUTSTANDING BALANCE AND ALASKA'S RANKED CHOICE VOTING SYSTEM. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP MAY HAVE TO WAIT LONGER FOR HIS MEMORIAL ARCH. A FEDERAL COURT BLOCKED HIM FROM BREAKING GROUND. DESPITE THE NEWS COME THE ADMINISTRATION STILL AND BUILD A NEW RACE THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE PLANS. THE DUDE A 50 FOOT STRUCTURE CLAN BETWEEN THE LINCOLN MEMORIAL IN ARLINGTON NATIONAL CEMETERY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AN EVENT SPACE, STORAGE FOR MUNITIONS, AND AREAS FOR SNIPERS. DAVID: 130 PEOPLE SHOWED UP FOR THIS HEARING, MOST OF WHOM WERE AGAINST THIS PROJECT. CHRISTINA: OVERWHELMINGLY AGAINST THE PROJECT. DAVID: THEY RAISED ALL THESE NATIONAL SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS WERE NOT PART OF THE INITIAL PLAN. CHRISTINA: THEY CAME AFTER. BUT THEY FOUND OUT THAT WAS A WAY TO CIRCUMVENT THE RED TAPE AND TRY SOMETHING THAT MIGHT NOT BE SO POPULAR. DAVID: THANK YOU SO MUCH. CHRISTINA: I HATE DRIVING AROUND THAT CIRCLE. I DON'T THINK A GIANT ARCHEWELL MAKE IT EASIER. DAVID: PRESIDENT TRUMP WAKES UP IN WEST PALM BEACH AFTER HIRING A NEW CHIEF OF STAFF, HARDLINER STEPHEN MILLER. THE NEW YORK TIMES AND OTHERS ARE REPORTING PART OF STEPHEN MILLER'S PITCH FOR THE JOB WAS WINDING DOWN THE WAR IN IRAN, SOMETHING TOP OF MIND FOR VOTERS, OF COURSE, THIS WEEK AS THEY USHERED IN THE BLUE WAVE WE WERE TALKING ABOUT. CHRISTINA: THIS MORNING IN BC'S REPORTING TRUMP'S ADVISERS HAVE TOLD HIM HIS WINDOW FOR RESTARTING MAJOR COMBAT OPERATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS CLOSING, AND IF HE IS GOING TO ACT HE HAS TO TAKE ACTION BEFORE THE NEW CONGRESS TAKES OFFICE IN JANUARY. HERE'S WHAT THE PRESIDENT SET ON THE TARMAC LAST NIGHT. PRES. TRUMP: WE MADE A LOT OF PROGRESS WITH IRAN. WE'VE TAKEN OUT MORE OIL NOW THAN BEFORE THE WAR. IT CAN'T BE A WAR FOR FIVE MONTHS NOBODY WAS HURT, KILLED, OR ANYTHING ELSE. NOT A WAR. CHRISTINA: JOINING US IS CHRIS KENNEDY, OUR ECONOMIC STATECRAFT LEAD AT BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS AND HE HAS BEEN ANALYZING WITH THE BLUE WAVE MEANS FOR TRUMP'S FOREIGN POLICY. CHRIS, I WAS IN WASHINGTON AND YOU WERE NOT IN WASHINGTON BECAUSE YOU ARE IN FRANCE, WHICH I'M VERY UPSET ABOUT AND ENVIOUS OF. DAVID: THE PLOT THICKENS. CHRISTINA: I WILL OUT YOU IN FRONT OF EVERYONE BECAUSE YOUR COLLEAGUES AND I WERE VERY BITTER WHEN YOU ARE EATING BAGUETTES AND WE WERE COVERING THE ELECTION. WHAT DOES A STEPHEN MILLER DECISION MEAN FOR WHETHER OR NOT THE WHITE HOUSE IS GOING TO EVEN TRY TO WORK WITH THE NEW CONGRESS? BEEN WATCHING THE ELECTION VERY CLOSELY, AND I THINK A LOT OF EXCITEMENT ABOUT SEEING WHAT THIS DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS CAN DO. IN TERMS OF STEPHEN MILLER'S APPOINTMENT, IF YOU LOOK AT THE VOICES AND THE ADMINISTRATION THAT HAVE REALLY PUSHED THE PRESIDENT, PUSH THE LIMITS OF EXECUTIVE POWER IT HAS BEEN BUDGET. EXPECTING SOME MORE OF THAT, ESPECIALLY AS THE PRESIDENT FACES OPPOSITION IN CONGRESS, TRYING TO DO MORE AND MORE WITHOUT THE CONGRESS. STEPHEN MILLER HAS BEEN A BIG VOICE BEHIND THAT STRATEGY. DAVID: CHRISTINA MENTIONING THE ROLE HE PLAYED AND HAS PLAYED, CONTINUED TO PLAY, AND IMMIGRATION POLICY. UNDERSTAND A LOT OF HIS FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND SOLIDIFYING, CODIFYING THE DOCTRINE. WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT HIS INVOLVEMENT IN THE OTHER CONFLICTS, UKRAINE AND THE MIDDLE EAST? HOW MUCH OF AN INTEREST HAS HE HAD IN THOSE? HOW MUCH HAS HE BEEN SHAPING THE WAY THE ADMINISTRATION VIEWS THOSE CONFLICTS? CHRIS: OUR SENSE IS LESS ABOUT ADVOCATING FOR THE WAR, PER SE, AND MORE ABOUT DOING THINGS OUTSIDE OF -- OUTSIDE OF THE CONGRESS. PUSHING THE LIMITS. AGAIN. OF EXECUTIVE POWER. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WITH IRAN. OF COURSE, THE PRESIDENT IS VERY FRUSTRATED WITH THE STATUS OF THE IRAN WAR. IT SEEMS HE IS OVER IT. HE WOULD RATHER FOCUS ON OTHER THINGS. IT IS HARD TO TELL WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. BUT, OF COURSE, AS MENTIONED, THE WINDOW IS CLOSING BEFORE WE HAVE A DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS. THE PRESIDENT DID PROMISE THERE MIGHT BE SOME ACTION AFTER THE ELECTION. WE HAVEN'T SEEN IT YET, BUT IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE WE COULD IN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. CHRISTINA: CHRIS, YOU HAVE A NEW ANALYSIS OUT THAT HAS EXCELLENT CHARTS THAT I WILL HOLD OUT FOR OUR TV VIEWERS. DAVID: EVERYONE LOVES WHEN YOU DO THAT. CHRISTINA: I'M JUST TRYING TO BRING SOME DYNAMISM TO OUR SEGMENTS, DAVID GURA. SHUSH. YOU ARE LOOKING AT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WHERE DEMOCRATS ARE LIKELY ABLE TO ALTER OR STOP FOREIGN POLICY WHERE THERE ARE LIKELY TO HAVE IMPACT. CAN YOU RUN US THROUGH THE TOP LINES? WHERE THEY'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO DISAGREE AND MAKE A DIFFERENCE AND WHERE IS IT REALLY UP TO THE WHITE HOUSE? HAS DELEGATED SIGNIFICANT AUTHORITY TO THE PRESIDENT TO IMPOSE TARIFFS AND KEEP TARIFFS IN PLACE WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL. WE EXPECT THE PRESIDENT TO CONTINUE USING THOSE AUTHORITIES. OF COURSE DEMOCRATS HAVE THE POWER OF THE PURSE. THEY CAN PREVENT THE ALLOCATION OF ADDITIONAL FUNDS FOR THE WORK. BUT THE PRESIDENT ASKED FOR THE WAR, BUT THE PRESIDENT HAS SIGNIFICANT MUNITIONS HE CAN RELY ON IF HE WANTS TO RESTART HOSTILITIES WITH IRAN IN PARTICULAR. IN THE CASE OF UKRAINE PEOPLE SEE DEMOCRATS PUSHING FOR ADDITIONAL AID AND INCLUDING THAT FUNDING AND EXPECTING IT TO BE PROVIDED TO UKRAINE. WE DO EXPECT THAT. ON THE QUESTION OF SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA, I EXPECT DEMOCRATS TO PUSH FOR, YOU KNOW, CONGRESS TO ACT AND PUT REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS ON THE SPOT AND FORCE THESE DIFFICULT VOTES. CURRENT SPEAKER MIKE AND SENATE MAJORITY LEADER JOHN THUNE HAVE PREVENTED FROM COMING TO THE FLOOR BECAUSE THE REALITY IS, WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS, THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT OVER SOME OF THE POLICIES THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS PURSUED. WHETHER DEMOCRATS CAN MARSHAL A SUPER MAJORITY THAT WOULD BE NEEDED TO OVERCOME A PRESIDENTIAL VETO, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BUT WE EXPECT THE DEMOCRATS TO BE PUSHING THESE DIFFICULT VOTES AND THEN ALSO COME AGAIN, INCLUDING SOME OF THESE RIDERS TO GET MORE FUNDING TO THE UKRAINIANS AS THEY CONTINUE THEIR FIGHT AGAINST THE RUSSIAN INVASION. DAVID: FOR OUR RADIO LISTENERS AND THOSE WHO DON'T HAVE A 60-INCH SCREEN, THERE IS A TABLE TO RUN THROUGH THESE SCENARIOS. WITH SO MANY OF THESE, ONE OF THE THINGS YOU KNOW DEMOCRATS COULD DO IS CONDUCT HEARINGS AND INVESTIGATIONS. I WONDER HOW YOU'RE THINKING ABOUT THE EFFICACY OF THAT? OBVIOUSLY, THERE'S A HUGE POLITICAL POINT TO ALL OF THIS.\" OUT OF THE DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE WANTS TO SEE THE ADMINISTRATION HELD TO ACCOUNT IN A TRANSPARENT OPEN FORUM, THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVEN'T SEEN OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE PRESIDENT'S SECOND TERM. WHAT IS YOUR SENSE OF WHAT COULD COME OUT OF THAT? IN OTHER WORDS, WHAT DO YOU THINK THE DEMOCRATS' APPROACH WILL BE HAVING HEARINGS CONDUCTING THESE INVESTIGATIONS? CHRIS: CERTAINLY THEY WOULD LOVE TO COMPEL THE ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS TO COME IN AND TESTIFY, REVEAL SOME OF THE DETAILS AROUND DECISION-MAKING ON THINGS, INCLUDING EXPORT CONTROLS, CHIP EXPORT CONTROLS. OF COURSE, SOME OF THE ACTIONS AROUND RUSSIA-UKRAINE. WHETHER THE ADMINISTRATION COMPLIES IS TO BE SEEN. DEMOCRATS ARE ALSO GOING TO BE, YOU KNOW, LOOKING TO CORPORATE LEADERS TO COME IN AND TESTIFY. WHAT I EXPECT THE DEMOCRATS TO BE DOING, THOUGH, IS KEEP THIS VERY FOCUSED. THIS ELECTION WAS WON ON A FOCUSED MESSAGE LINKING THE PRESIDENT'S ACTIONS TO AFFORDABILITY, TO THE COSTS FACING AMERICANS. ALSO LINKING WHAT THE DEMOCRATS CALLED \"CORRUPTION\" TO AFFORDABILITY. I WOULD EXPECT THEIR OVERSIGHT TO CONTINUE THAT FOCUS AND NOT JUST HAVE IT GO EVERY WHICH WAY. I THINK THAT'S A RISK THAT THE CURRENT DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP UNDERSTANDS IS THERE, SO THEY ARE GOING TO BE, IN EVERY CASE, TYING THIS TO THE COST THAT AMERICANS ARE EXPERIENCING, AND, OF COURSE, SETTING UP THE MESSAGING FOR 2020. -- 2028. CHRISTINA: THIS CONGRESS IS NOT DONE YET, THEY HAVE TWO MONTHS TO DO WITH THE PRESIDENT WANTS THEM TO DO, POSSIBLY. A LOT OF JUDICIAL CONFIRMATIONS? COULD THEY TRY TO GET A RECONCILIATION BILL THROUGH? COULD DEMOCRATS DOUBT THAT AT THIS POINT? ARE THEY LIKELY TO SEE ANYMORE REPUBLICAN DEFLECTIONS TO PRESIDENT TRUMPS AGENDA GIVEN THE WAY THE VOTING JUST WENT? THERE ARE SOME OF THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS CALLING FOR THAT. JUDICIAL NOMINATIONS, WE EXPECT DEMOCRATS TO SLOW THEM DOWN IF NOT COMPLETELY HALT THEM AT THE APPELLATE LEVEL AND CERTAINLY AT THE SUPREME COURT LEVEL. THERE IS GOING TO BE MOVED TO DO AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. WE WILL ALSO SEE IF THERE ARE ANY IMPORTANT SENATE-CONFIRMED ADMINISTRATION POSITIONS THAT MIGHT NEED TO BE FILLED, IF THERE ARE ADDITIONAL RESIGNATIONS BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE YEAR. SO WILL WE SEE DEFECTIONS? OF COURSE, THE PRESIDENT, THERE IS ALREADY SOME OPPOSITION TO THE PRESIDENT IN SOME OF THE OUTGOING REPUBLICAN SENATORS. WE WILL SEE HOW MUCH IT HAS DONE. WE DON'T REALLY EXPECT ROBUST OPPOSITION TO THE PRESIDENT EMERGING IN THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THIS CURRENT CONGRESS, BUT AS DEMOCRATS BEGIN FORCING VOTES IN JANUARY ON DIFFICULT POSITIONS IF THE PRESIDENT'S FAVORABILITY STAYS AT ITS RECORD LOWS, WE COULD SEE SOME DEFECTIONS, AND ESPECIALLY AS CANDIDATES FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION IN 2028 START TO EMERGE AND CHART A NEW PATH TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. CHRISTINA: GOOD, LET'S TALK ABOUT 2028. WE JUST GOT THROUGH THE MIDTERMS. DAVID: ITS TRADITION IN THIS COUNTRY, YOU HAVE TO LOOK AHEAD, YOU CAN'T LOOK BACK. THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE, LISTEN TO WHAT HE HAD TO SAY. PRES. TRUMP: RUSSIA AND UKRAINE, WE HAVE MEETINGS TODAY. I'M HAVING SOME TOMORROW. THEY'RE HAVING A MEETING ON MONDAYS AND TUESDAYS, YOU KNOW. I THINK THEY WANT -- I THINK IS GOING TO INVOLVE ALL OF EUROPE. IT'S GOING TO BE VERY BIG. DAVID: I THINK IT'S GOING TO INVOLVE ALL OF EUROPE, IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY BIG SETTLEMENT, BUT YOU ARE IN EUROPE AND I WANT TO GET YOUR PERSPECTIVE FROM YOUR CURRENT STATE OF PLACE. DOES IT FEEL LIKE THINGS ARE NOTIONALLY DIFFERENT POST-WAR THAT THIS COULD BE LEADING TO SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT? CHRIS: IT'S HARD TO SEE AND, OF COURSE, THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN PROMISING A BIG DEAL SINCE HE RETURNED TO OFFICE. I THINK HE SEES THIS AS A LEGACY-DEFINING MOMENT OR ISSUE AND HE WOULD LOVE TO SEE THE CONFLICT RESOLVED BEFORE HE LEAVES OFFICE, BUT IS GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT UNTIL RUSSIA IS FORCED TO GIVE UP THIS FIGHT, BECAUSE PUTIN -- THIS IS A LONG-TIME GOAL FOR HIM TO BRING UKRAINE BACK INTO THE FOLD. YOU KNOW, I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND, WE ARE GOING INTO AN ELECTION SUPER CYCLE IN EUROPE AND THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FAR-RIGHT PARTIES MAKING GANGS. -- MAKING GAINS. THE POLITICAL SITUATION HERE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. WE DO HAVE PEOPLE LIKE MARINE LE PEN. ANYWAY -- CHRISTINA: THANKS, CHRIS. DAVID: MERCI, CHRIS. CHRISTINA: HAVE ONE OF THOSE LOVELY HAM AND BUTTER BAGUETTES FOR US THIS MORNING. DAVID: AFTER A SURPRISING JOB'S REPORTS, WE WILL DISCUSS WHERE THE BIGGEST GAINS WILL BE AND INTEREST RATES COMING UP ON BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND, BLOOMBERG RADIO, TELEVISION, BLOOMBERG.COM, THE BLOOMBERG BUSINESS APP, IN EUROPE, IN FRANCE COME ALL AROUND THE WORLD, STAY WITH US.♪ ♪THANK YOU FOR JOINING US LIVE ON BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND LISA: I AM LISA MATEO, LET'S UPDATE YOU ON TODAY'S STORIES. A WOMAN WHO HAD BECOME CLOSE TO JENSEN HUANG WAS REPORTEDLY WORKING FOR A CHINESE SPY AGENCY. THE NEW YORK TIMES SAYS NEW YORK INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS HAVE INFORMED THE TRUMP HIM. AN EXECUTIVE WITH AN ASIAN TECH COMPANY INTERNATIONAL. OPENAI HAS CLOSED ON NEW FUNDING OF ROUGHLY $11 BILLION. IT IS THE INITIAL ROUND THAT VALUES THE COMPANY OF 1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS. THE FUNDING WAS WIRED TO THE COMPANY ON THE REMAINDER, WHICH COULD INCREASE AS MUCH AS $20 BILLION IN TOTAL, IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED IN THE COMING WEEKS. MICROSOFT IS WINDING DOWN AN ARRANGEMENT TO RENT AI COMPUTING FROM ORACLE. THIS IS PART OF A LARGER REASSESSMENT OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN CLOUD PARTNERSHIPS. SOURCES TOLD BLOOMBERG THE COMPUTING MICROSOFT WAS RENTING BECAME LESS USEFUL BECAUSE IT NO LONGER FIT THE COMPANY SPECIFICATIONS. HARDWARE USED OLDER GENERATION NVIDIA CHIPS. TWO OF ATLANTIA'S NEWEST PANDAS MADE THEIR DEBUT AND VISITORS BIND UP TO WELCOME T THEY ARRIVED -- WELCOME THEM. THEY ARRIVED IN SEPTEMBER FROM CHINA ON A LOAN AGREEMENT. IT IS ONE OF THREE U.S. SUES BEARS. DAVID: HE WAS TRYING TO CONVERT HER TO A PANDA FAN. YOU'RE NOT MOVED ON THIS. CHRISTINA: DO YOU WANT TO READ THAT? DAVID: NO. I AM UNPREPARED. THE BLOCKBUSTER JOBS REPORT IN THE LABOR MARKET BLEW PAST ALL EXPECTATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH THE JOBLESS RATE DROPPING BY 1/10 OF A POINT TO 4.1%. CHRISTINA: THAT'S RIGHT, THE STRONG JOBS MARKET AND WAGE GROWTH MAKING ALL EYES TURNED TO THE FED'S FINAL INTEREST RATE DECISION AT THE END OF THE YEAR NEXT MONTH. LISA: INFLATION IS STILL HIGH, IT WILL FACTOR INTO THE DECISION. WE SPOKE WITH ANNA WONG THE BLOOMBERG U.S. CHIEF ECONOMIC ECONOMIST WHERE JOB GAINS ARE NOW AND A NEW TOOL FROM BLOOMBERG TO TRACK THE PRICES OF JUST ABOUT ANYTHING. ANNA: IT'S ONE OF THE BEST JOBS REPORTS AND AT LEAST TWO YEARS OF MY OPINION. ON THE EMPLOYMENT SIDE WE SEE JOB GROWTH IN PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES, WHITE-COLLAR SECTORS. THIS IS A SECTOR THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE MOST AT RISK FOR LAYOFFS FROM A EYES SUBSTITUTING FOR HUMAN LABOR. CAN WE DIDN'T SEE IT IN THIS JOBS REPORT. AND THEN YOU ALSO HAVE THIS HUGE JOB GROWTH IN MANUFACTURING AND ALSO WAREHOUSING AND TRANSPORTATION SECTORS. SO THIS IS KIND OF THE BIG PICTURES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE JOB GROWTH IS BROADENING BEYOND THE TYPICAL CULPRITS, WHICH FOR YEARS HAS ONLY BEEN EDUCATION AND HEALTH CARE. IN THIS ONE WE ARE SEEING THREE NEW BRIGHT SPOTS. CHRISTINA: IT'S INTERESTING, DO WE KNOW WHAT'S DRIVING THAT GROWTH? IT SEEMS WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HOW HARD IT IS FOR OFFICE JOB WORKERS, THERE IS SO LITTLE MOVEMENT THERE, AND SOME OF THE SECTORS I FOUND VERY SURPRISING BECAUSE THEY'RE PREVIOUSLY BEEN PROBLEM CHILDREN OF THESE REPORTS? ANNA: EXACTLY. WITHIN THE PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES WE SEE THE JOB GROWTH IS CONCENTRATED IN ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES AS WELL AS -- CHRISTINA: THAT'S WHAT THE ROBOTS WERE STARTING TO DO. WHY IS THAT MAKING A COMEBACK? ANNA: I WONDER. THE DEEPER DETAILS HAVE NOT BEEN RELEASED SO FAR. WHAT I WOULD BE INTERESTED TO SEE IS: ARE THESE ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES MORE LIKE PERSONAL SECRETARIES OR SOMEBODY THAT PROVIDES PHYSICAL SERVICES TO AN ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE THAT IS SOMEHOW CLASSIFIED IN THAT CATEGORY? WE DO KNOW GROK BOT, FOR EXAMPLE, IS SUPPOSED TO BE YOUR PERSONAL CHIEF OF STAFF. THOSE JOBS SHOULD BE AT RISK OF BEING CANCELED IN THE FUTURE. ANOTHER TYPE OF WHITE-COLLAR JOB THAT SAW HUGE GROWTH IS MANAGEMENT CONSULTING. THERE IT IS ALSO THE DEEPER DETAILS NOT AVAILABLE. ALL I CAN SEE IS MANAGEMENT. I DON'T WANT TO SPECULATE. CHRISTINA: MAY ALSO HAVE THE INCREASED. ALL WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT, WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE FED? THEY HAD THEIR NEXT MEETING IN DECEMBER. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THEM THERE? WILL THEY KEEP RATES STEADY? WHAT IS IT ME MOVING INTO 2027? ANNA: YESTERDAY, AFTER THE STEEPEST NASDAQ 100 DROP SINCE MARCH 2020, WE SEE THE ODDS FOR A HIKE IN DECEMBER FELL FROM AT FIRST CLOSE TO 80% CHANCE TO 65% CHANCE. RIGHT AFTER THIS JOBS REPORT WE SEE THE ODDS OF A HIKE IN DECEMBER BOUNCE BACK TO 76%. CLEARLY, THE MARKET THINKS THE JOBS REPORT CLEARED THE DECK FOR THE FED TO HIKE IN DECEMBER. BUT I THINK THAT THE REMAINING 25% WHO THINK THE FED WON'T HIKE, INCLUDING OURSELVES, STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING DOUBTS ABOUT THIS AI SELLOFF AND WHETHER IT WILL ACCELERATE AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY, OR WHETHER THE EQUITY MARKET WILL BOUNCE BACK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS IS A HUGE OPEN QUESTION. CHRISTINA: I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT SOMETHING ELSE, THOUGH IT IS VERY RELATED. YOU HAVE BEEN WORKING ON THIS LONG-TERM PROJECT AT BLOOMBERG. GET STARTED AS A TARIFF INFLATION TRACKER THAT HAS EVOLVED INTO SOMETHING CALLED THE BLOOMBERG PRICE PROJECT. I WAS JUST ON. IT IS IN THE TERMINAL AND AT THE WEBSITE. THERE ARE REALLY COOL INTERACTIVE GRAPHICS. TELL US WHAT THIS IS AND WHY YOU ARE DOING IT. ANNA: YOU MENTIONED IT STARTED WITH TRACKING THE IMPACT ON TARIFF. LAST SUMMER THE BLS COMMISSIONER WAS FIRED OVER A VERY WEAK JOBS REPORT. SUDDENLY WE GOT A SURGE OF CLIENTS DEMAND FOR BLOOMBERG TO SERVE AS A HEDGE TO OFFICIAL STATISTICS. THERE HAS BEEN THIS EROSION OF TRUST OVER OFFICIAL STATISTICS. OKAY, SO WE CAME TOGETHER AND THOUGHT WE WILL RECONSTRUCT THE BLS CPI FROM THE BOTTOM UP, JUST LIKE THE BLS DOES IT -- OR IN WAYS AS CLOSE TO HOW THE BLS DOES IT AS POSSIBLE. CAN WE WILL ALSO MODERNIZE IT BY USING -- AND WE WILL ALSO MODERNIZE IT BY USING ALL ALTERNATIVE DATA. THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL DOES PROVIDE A LOT OF DATA. THE BLOOMBERG PRICE PROJECT IS A REBUILD OF CPI USING DATA LIKE CREDIT CARD DATA, REGULATORY FILINGS, SCRAPED WEBSITE DATA, GROCERY SCANNER DATA, PRICES DATA. YOU CAN SEE IN THE ARTICLE WE PUBLISHED EARLIER THIS YEAR, WHICH GIVES YOU KIND OF A HINT OF THE GRANULARITY, BUT THE FACT IS WE DRILLED DOWN -- WE OFFER DETAILS AS DEEP AS AT THE FIRM AND BRAND LEVEL. WE ARE SHOWING 1000 LINES WHEREAS THE BLS PUBLISHED ONLY ROUGHLY 200 LINES OR SO. THIS IS A WAY TO TRACK INFLATION SO WE COULD MAKE SURE THAT THERE IS AN INDEPENDENT READ OF INFLATION. I THINK AFTER MIDTERMS, GIVEN THE BLUE SWEEPER FROM THIS MIDTERMS, VERY PALATABLE RISK INTO 2027 IS A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN FROM THE DEBT STANDOFF. YOU CAN IMAGINE IT WOULD BE MONTHS AGAIN WHERE THE BLS WOULD NOT BE PUBLISHING DATA BECAUSE OF THE SHUTDOWN AND THIS IS WHERE THE BLOOMBERG PRICE PROJECT WOULD STEP IN. WE WILL HAVE THE DATA EVEN WHEN THE GOVERNMENT SHUTS DOWN. CHRISTINA: I'M NOT READY TO TALK ABOUT GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWNS. I JUST STOPPED TALKING ABOUT THIS ELECTION, BUT I UNDERSTAND YOU ARE CORRECT. WE HAVE ABOUT A MINUTE LEFT. I'M LOOKING AT SOME OF THESE THINGS, A RIBEYE STEAK DOWN 23 .4%. GIVE US A FEW SPECIFICS YOU SEE. ANNA: LAST YEAR THE BEEF SAW A HUGE SPIKE IN PRICES BECAUSE OF SCREW WORMS COMING FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER. WE SAW SKIRT STEAK INCREASING 60%. THAT IS THE CUT THAT YOU USUALLY GET IN ANY MEXICAN RESTAURANT. THAT'S HOW YOU CAN DRAW THE CONNECTION OF BEEF PRICES TO SCREW WORMS. BONELESS RIBEYE STEAKS ARE DOWN 20% OR SO, BUT THAT'S STILL AFTER THEY HAVE REASON 60% LAST YEAR. THE PRICE LEVEL IS STILL HIGHER, IF YOU GO TO OUTBACK THE MENU SHOCK WILL STILL BE THERE, BUT IT'S TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. CHRISTINA: ANNA WONG, WE APPRECIATE YOU. I DON'T EAT BEEF BUT I LOVE A BLOOMING ONION SO MAYBE WE CAN GO TO OUTBACK TOGETHER. IT WILL BE GREAT. DAVID: I'VE NEVER HAD A BLOOMING ONION. CHRISTINA: HAVE I HAD ONE? OH, YES. SO MANY CALORIES. DAVID: LISTENERS HEARD MY AUSTRALIAN ACCENT WHEN I SAID IT, THOUGH. CHRISTINA: BACK WITH SOME BTW. ♪ CHRISTINA: WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND OR B-T-DUBS. DAVID: WE HAD SUCH A GREAT TIME SAYING THE NAME OF THIS SEGMENT LAST WEEK. YOU WERE OFF. THERE WAS NO DIFFICULTY. CHRISTINA: WERE YOU SMUG AND GLEEFUL ABOUT IT? A LITTLE SMUG, YES. DAVID: SELF-RIGHTEOUS AND CORRECT IN MY PRONUNCIATION. GOOD TO HAVE YOU BACK FOR THIS SEGMENT IN PARTICULAR. CHRISTINA: LISA, WHAT AMAZING STORIES MIGHT WE HAVE MISSED DURING THE WEEK? LISA: WE ARE IN THE TIME OF THE ULTRA LONG MOVIE, THE ODYSSEY, ADVENTURES: DOOM DAY, THE ELIZABETH HOLMES DOCUMENTARY. CHRISTINA: STRUGGLING WITH ATTENTION SPANS, THE MOVIES ARE GOING IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. LISA: THE QUESTION IS, WHEN YOU GO TO THE BATHROOM? THERE IS HELP. HOLLYWOOD'S NEW SUPERHERO IS THE GUY WHO TELLS MOVIEGOERS WHEN TO PEE. AN APP CALLED RUN PEE, HE RECOMMENDS THE BEST TIME TO GO TO THE BATHROOM. IT INCLUDES A SYNOPSIS OF WHAT YOU MISSED IF YOU GO THEN, IT HAS A BUILT-IN STOPWATCH THAT USERS START WITH THE FILM BEGINS AND YOU GET A NOTIFICATION AHEAD OF EACH BATHROOM BREAK THAT WAS RECOMMENDED. CHRISTINA: THAT WOULD STRESS ME OUT. DAVID: YOU HAVE A FEATURE ON YOUR WATCH THAT TELLS YOU WHEN TO STAND. CHRISTINA: IT DOES NOT TELL ME WHEN TO GO TO THE BATHROOM. LISA: IT'S A PROBLEM. DAVID: LET'S TAKE IT OLD SCHOOL, GO BACK TO THE DAYS OF CHITTY C HITTY BANG BANG WHEN THERE WAS AN INTERMISSION, IT WAS BUILT IN. CHRISTINA: IT IS RIGHT UP THERE -- IT IS A LONG MOVIE. DAVID: THIS HAS BEEN AROUND -- LISA: THIS HAS BEEN AROUND FOR 20 YEARS BUT IT IS GETTING MORE USERS. WITH THE ELIZABETH HOLMES DOCUMENTARY, PEOPLE SIGNED UP FOR IT. IT IS A LOT, SO THIS MIGHT HELP YOU. FOR THOSE OUT THERE -- DAVID: MAYBE I WOULD HAVE TO TAKE THE DAY TO SEE BOTH OF THOSE. IF YOU SAW THEM BACK TO BACK. CHRISTINA: IT IS CLOSE TO EIGHT HOURS. DAVID: FOR JOURNALISTIC PURPOSES. WHAT ELSE YOU GOT, LISA? LISA: MOVIES TO GAMING. THIS IS FROM BUSINESS INSIDER. THE REAL REASON YOUR COWORKER IS TAKING TIME OFF THIS MONTH. IT IS TO PLAY VIDEO GAMES. CHRISTINA: DAVID IS DOING IT WITH DOCUMENTARIES, SOME ARE DOING IT WITH THE GTA. LISA: THAT IS NOT THE ONLY VIDEO GAME. THAT'S WHY SO MANY ARE TAKING OFF THIS WEEK. IF YOU GET TWO RELEASES. WORLD OF WARCRAFT FOREVER AND THE LEGEND OF ZELDA OCARINA -- DAVID: IT IS A KIND OF CLAY SALUTE. AN OCARINA IS A CLAY FL UTE. CHRISTINA: RANDOM FLUTE KNOWLEDGE ASIDE -- LISA: THREE BIG GAMES, THEY ARE TELLING BUSINESS INSIDER'S PTO REQUESTS ARE COMING IN LIKE CRAZY. THEN THERE ARE COMPANIES INVOLVED IN GAMING THAT ARE GIVING THE PEOPLE THE DAY OFF. JUST TAKE THE DAY. CHRISTINA: IT IS A GAMING HOLIDAY. WE TALKED TO FOLKS THAT WILL AIR LATER, STAY TUNED COME ABOUT HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND HOW EXPENSIVE EVERYTHING IS GETTING. I GET IT. IF YOU WANT TO DO A STAYCATION AND PLAY VIDEO GAMES, USE THAT PTO. THAT'S WHAT IT'S FOR. DAVID: THAT TEASE, KEEP US WANTING. CHRISTINA: THAT'S WHAT IT'S LIKE WHEN YOU'RE NOT HERE ON A FRIDAY. LISA: DATA CENTERS, ON THE BALLOT. DENVER IN D.C. RESIDENTS VOTED ON TUESDAY IN FAVOR OF A CITYWIDE BAN ON FOLK -- ON FOIE GRAS. A D.C. RESTAURANT SAYS IT WILL KEEP SERVING IT AFTER VOTERS AGREED TO BAN. HAVE YOU BEEN TO BUTTERWORTH'S? IT IS A FRENCH BISTRO. CHRISTINA: I HAVE NOT, BUT IT IS A POPULAR HANGOUT. DAVID: FRENCH LOUIS OR OTHER D.C. FRENCH RESTAURANTS. IS A CENTRAL STILL THERE. WHAT THE BALLOT SAYS. THE PROBLEM IS I MIGHT NOT HAPPEN BECAUSE THE CFO SAID IT WILL COST ABOUT $314,000 TO EDUCATE PEOPLE, BRING IN AN INSPECTOR, DO THE THINGS, SO IT PROBABLY WON'T HAPPEN. THERE WAS A BAN IN NEW YORK CITY. NEW YORK CITY DID THE SAME THING IN 2019. IT IS STILL BEING SERVED. CHRISTINA: THE THINK ABOUT THE BILL IN D.C. IS IT ALSO BANNED MAKING FOIE GRAS IN D.C. EVERYONE WAS LIKE, ARE WE SECRETLY FORCE-FEEDING GEESE BEHIND CAPITOL HILL? IT WAS A VERY POPULAR HALLOWEEN COST. SOMEONE WILL BE A GOOSE AND SOMEONE WILL BE THE FARMER AND FOIE GRAS-ING THEM. LISA: BACK IN THE DAY OUR PARENTS DIDN'T UNDERSTAND THE MUSIC WE WERE LISTENING TO. NOW KIDS ARE LISTENING TO WHAT WE USED TO LISTEN TO. THE METALLICA DIEHARDS WHO LOVED TO ROCK OUT WITH MOM AND DAD. LITTLE KIDS GOING TO CONCERTS WITH MOM AND DAD, ROCKING OUT TO METALLICA. LISTENERS BETWEEN 13 AND 24 ARE EXPRESSING MORE INTEREST IN SONGS FROM THE 1990'S AND BEFORE BECAUSE THEY CAN JUST GO ON SPOTIFY, YOUTUBE, PULL UP THE MUSIC EASY. BACK IN THE DAY YOU HAD TO GRAB A RECORD OR CASSETTE. NOW IT IS AT THE TOUCH OF THE FINGER. CHRISTINA: THAT IS AN INTERGENERATIONAL COMFORT. DAVID: A BLUEGRASS CONCERT, NOT GOOD TIME DOING IT. TICKETS ARE EXPENSIVE, SO IT MUST BE NICE THAT PARENTS PICKING THAT UP. LISA: IS A GOOD TIME FOR ALL. MINE WENT TO A GOO GOO DOLLS CONCERT. THEY ARE GETTING INTO THE MUSIC WE LISTENED TO. DAVID: THANK YOU. COMING UP ON 8:00 IN NEW YORK. THE NEXT HOUR OF BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND STARTS RIGHT NOW. >> WELCOME TO BLOOMBERG \"THIS WEEKEND.\" LIVE FROM NEW YORK WITH DAVID GURA, CHRISTINA RUFFINI, AND LISA MATEO. THE LATEST HEADLINES, KEY ANALYSIS, BIG INTERVIEWS, AND THE STORIES THAT HIT HOME ON YOUR DAYS OFF. DAVID: WELCOME TO BLOOMBERG \"THIS WEEKEND.\" FROM BLOOMBERG'S WORLD HEADQUARTERS, I AM DAVID GURA. CHRISTINA: I'M CHRISTINA RUFFINI HERE WITH LISA MATEO, AND WE ARE STARTING WITH FINANCIAL NEWS. EARNINGS ARE COMING IN FROM BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY, WHICH DOES REPORT ON SATURDAYS. THIS IS OUR SECOND, THIRD TIME COVERING THESE EARNINGS? BUFFETT STARTED. I DON'T WANT TO THROW TO YOU YET, BUT THEY ARE BRIGHT RED, RED HEADLINES. LISA: LET'S GET RIGHT TO IT. CHARLIE HATHAWAY, THIRD-QUARTER OPERATING EARNINGS, $12.71 BILLION. -5.8% YEAR-OVER-YEAR. BERKSHIRE ALSO BROUGHT ABOUT 9.6 BILLION DOLLARS IN TREASURIES -- BOUGHT ABOUT 9.6 BILLION DOLLARS IN TREASURY SHARES OVER THE QUARTER. AND OF COURSE, INSURANCE INVESTMENT. THAT IS ANOTHER POINT PEOPLE ALWAYS GO TO. INVESTMENT OPERATION INCOME ABOUT $3.7 BILLION YEAR-OVER-YEAR. THOSE NUMBERS JUST OUT. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE MATTHEW PALAZOLA FROM BLOOMBERG NUMBERS. HE IS THE EXPERIENCED ONE. WE WILL BRING HIM IN FOR THAT ONE. AT LEAST ONE PERSON HAS BEEN KILLED AND SEVERAL OTHERS INJURED AFTER RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKES STRUCK KYIV OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS A STATEMENT ON TELEGRAM, THE STATE RUN OIL COMPANY HAD SET AN ENERGY FACILITY WAS STRUCK THREE TIMES, DAMAGING EQUIPMENT AND CAUSING A FIRE. SOURCES TOLD BLOOMBERG UKRAINE STRUCK MCQUINN OIL REFINERY IN SOUTHWESTERN RUSSIA. THIS COMES AS UKRAINE PREPARES FOR NEW TALKS NEXT WEEK WITH RUSSIA AND THE U.S. PARAGUAY HAS REMOVED ITS PRESIDENT FROM OFFICE. THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR HIM TO FACE CRIMINAL CHARGES OVER HIS ALLEGED ROLE IN THE COLLAPSE OF A MAJOR BANK. HE IS A KEY ALLY OF PRESIDENT TRUMP. HE HAD OFFERED TO RESIGN, BUT LAWMAKERS VOTED TO REMOVE HIM, DENYING HIM A LIFETIME NONVOTING SENATE SEAT. IT MAY BE THE END TO ONE OF THE MOST DIVISIVE POLITICAL BATTLES IN CALIFORNIA. VOTERS IN THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO REJECT A FIRST OF ITS KIND TAX ON BILLIONAIRES, WITH 46% OF VOTERS BACKING THE MEASURE. PROPOSITION 40 WOULD HAVE BEEN POSED A ONE-TIME TAX ON BILLIONAIRES WHO ARE CALIFORNIA RESIDENTS AT THE START OF 2026. MOST OF THE PROCEEDS WERE TO SHORE UP HEALTH CARE. CORNELL UNIVERSITY PASSED A NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE IN ITS LEADERSHIP AFTER RAPE ALLEGATIONS BY A FORMER STUDENT. ABOUT 56% OF THE BODY VOTED IN FAVOR. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP MAY HAVE TO WAIT JUST A LITTLE BIT LONGER FOR HIS MAURY LARGE. A FEDERAL COURT HAS TEMPORARY -- TEMPORARILY BLOCKED HIM FROM BREAKING GROUND. THE ADMINISTRATION UNVEILED A NEW WEBSITE THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE PLANS FOR THE STRUCTURE BETWEEN THE LINCOLN MEMORIAL AND ARLINGTON NATIONAL CEMETERY. IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AN EVENT SPACE AND AREAS FOR SNIPERS. DAVID: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. LISA HAS THIS. THIS WAS SO SERIOUS WITH THE HEADLINES, YOU DID NOT WANT YOUR MICROPHONE TO FAILURE. YOU HAD A BACKUP MICROPHONE IN CASE WE NEEDED THAT. LISA: YOU ARE HAVING TOO MUCH FUN WITH THAT. CHRISTINA: YOU WAITED YOUR WHOLE LIFE. DAVID: I'VE BEEN TOLD THIS IS A WASTE OF TIME. I APOLOGIZE. PRESIDENT TRUMP GIVING AN EARLY INDICATION ON HOW HE WILL GOVERN IN THE LAST TWO YEARS OF HIS TERM. HE HAS PICKED STEPHEN MILLER AS HIS NEW CHIEF OF STAFF. CHRISTINA: THAT'S RIGHT. PRES. TRUMP: HE HAS BEEN RIGHT WITH ME FROM THE BEGINNING. 2015. BEFORE 2016, 2015, AND HE IS VERY LOYAL, SMART, DOES A GREAT JOB. HE HAS BEEN AN M.V.P. EVERY YEAR. CHRISTINA: MILLER IS LOYAL. HE IS DIVISIVE. HAKEEM JEFFRIES SAYS STEPHEN MILLER IS A DANGEROUS XENOPHOBIC AND RECKLESS EXTREMIST WHO HAS AMERICAN BLOOD ON HIS HANDS. HIS PRESENCE IN GOVERNMENT FIRE HIM TODAY. ON THAT NOTE, JOINING US NOW IS JOE MATHIEU, COHOST OF \"BALANCE OF POWER. I KNOW YOU AND DAVID SPEND A LOT OF TIME TOGETHER DURING THE ELECTION. I'M GRATEFUL FOR YOU HE DID NOT HAVE A STICK MIC DURING THAT PROCESS. TALK TO US ABOUT STEPHEN MILLER. HE'S THE GUY WHO WROTE THE AMERICAN CARNAGE SPEECH -- TRUMP FAMOUSLY GAVE. I HASN'T HE HAD THIS JOB BEFORE IF HE IS SO INFLUENTIAL AND CLOSE TO THE PRESIDENT? JOE: THAT IS A FAIR QUESTION. HE WAS THE DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF AND WE KNOW HE WAS ONE OF THE CLOSEST AND MOST LOYAL ADVISORS TO THE PRESIDENT GOING BACK TO THE FIRST TERM. SUSIE WILES HELPED THE PRESIDENT GET REELECTED AND SHE WAS REWARDED HANDSOMELY WITH THIS ROLE. STEPHEN MILLER WAS PRETTY BUSY ALL THE WHILE. WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THESE ICE ENFORCEMENT CONCERNS THAT REALLY HELPED TO TURN VOTERS AWAY FROM THE ADMINISTRATION TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT SOME OF THE RAIDS WE WERE TALKING ABOUT, THE DEPORTATIONS. THAT WAS ENCOURAGED AND DESIGNED BY STEPHEN MILLER. THAT IS WHY YOU ARE SEEING THIS VISCERAL REACTION. COULD NOT HAVE MADE A WORSE CHOICE, WAS THE STATEMENT FROM CHUCK SCHUMER, KIND OF ECHOING WHAT WE HEARD FROM HAKEEM JEFFRIES. WE TALKED TO DEMOCRATS LAST NIGHT ON \"BALANCE OF POWER.\" THEY SEE THIS AS A DOUBLING DOWN AND A MESSAGE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE THAT THIS ADMINISTRATION HAS NO INTEREST IN WORKING WITH DEMOCRATS AND COULD BE AN EVEN MORE CONTENTIOUS RELATIONSHIP THE NEXT TWO YEARS. DAVID: AS CHRISTINA MENTIONED, JOE AND I HERE IN NEW YORK ON ELECTION NIGHT. YOU WERE TRACKING WHAT THE PRESIDENT HAD TO SAY, BE THAT ABOUT HIS PROJECTS IN WASHINGTON OR THE WAY THE POLITICAL TERRAIN HAS SHIFTED. I WAS STRUCK I THE LINE HE USED YESTERDAY. SOMETIME IN LIFE -- SOMETIMES IN LIFE YOU HAVE TO MAKE A MOVE. WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THOSE MOVES BEYOND DISAPPOINTMENT OF -- THIS APPOINTMENT OF STEPHEN MILLER, THE WAY HE IS THINKING ABOUT HIS CABINET, WHAT CHANGES HE MIGHT MAKE IN LIGHT OF THE BLOWBACK TUESDAY NIGHT? JOE: APPARENTLY THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WAS ON A LOW BOIL FOR SOME TIME IN THE WHITE HOUSE. THE PRESIDENT HAD BEEN MAKING CALLS ABOUT NOT ONLY FIRING SUSIE WILES, BUT WHO HE MIGHT CALL ON TO REPLACE HER. OTHER MEMBERS OF THE CABINET WE WILL SEE. THAT WOULD BE TYPICAL POST-MIDTERM FOR A LAME-DUCK PRESIDENT. THE FIRST PERSON WE KEEP TURNING TO HIS PETE HEGSETH. THERE IS GOING TO BE AN IMPEACHMENT VOTE LIKELY NEXT WEEK IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, BASED ON A RESOLUTION THOMAS MASSIE LEFT ON THE SHELF. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ABOUT TO IMPEACH HIM ON THE HOUSE SIDE. NOT LIKELY TO BE CONVICTED ON THE SENATE SIDE. THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN STANDING BY HIS MAN. HE SAT DOWN WITH AN INTERVIEW FOR 60 MINUTES. HE SAID, NO, HE HAS BEEN GREAT. OF COURSE, IT IS THESE WARS IN PART THAT TURNED THE BOAT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL SEE ABOUT THAT, BUT THERE ARE OTHERS, INCLUDING MARCO RUBIO, WHO BLOOMBERG REPORTED TO DING -- TWO DAYS AGO THAT IS TRYING TO PICK HIS MOMENT AS WELL. PARTICULARLY IF HE IS GOING TO RUN FOR ELECTION IN 2028. DAVID: WE SAW A VIDEO FROM PETE WELL. CHRISTINA: IT IS INTERESTING. I'M ASSUMING YOU KNOW MORE ABOUT THIS THAN I DO, BUT I'M UNCLEAR WHAT STEPHEN MILLER'S RELATIONSHIP IS LIKE WITH THE OTHER CABINET SECRETARIES. HOW OFTEN THEY ARE INTERACTING. WHETHER HE AND HEGSETH GET ALONG. DO WE KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT THE PERSONALITIES AT PLAY? JOE: HE HOLDS A CONFERENCE CALL AT 10:00 A.M. EVERY MORNING AS IF HE IS ALREADY THE CHIEF OF STAFF. HE HAS QUITE A BIT OF INFLUENCE OVER THE STAFF. IN TERMS OF CONTINUITY THAT SUSIE WILES MANAGED TO MAINTAIN, IT WOULD BE THE QUESTION GOING FORWARD ABOUT WHETHER STEPHEN MILLER CAN KEEP THE TRAINS RUNNING ON TIME LIKE THIS. HE'S GOING TO BE THE ACCESS POINT. IF YOU WANT TO TALK POLICY, IF YOU WANT TO START CRAFTING AN AGENDA THAT WILL GO THROUGH THE STEVE -- THE CHIEF OF STAFF. LEGISLATIVE LIAISON. THAT IS GOING TO BE FASCINATING TO SEE UNDER THIS NEW CHIEF OF STAFF WHO DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE A TERRIBLY HIGH REGARD FOR THE ROLE CONGRESS PLACE IN OUR CONCERNED ABOUT THIS. DAVID: WE HAVE THIS TWO-MONTH PERIOD BEFORE CONGRESS IS SWORN IN. CONGRESSMAN BRAD LANDER WAS MAKING HIS WAY DOWN TO D.C.. HOW ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT WHAT THESE TWO MONTHS ARE GOING TO LOOK LIKE? THERE IS ALL OF THE CONVERSATION SURROUNDING THE HEARINGS THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE NEW TERM. WHAT DOES THE AGENDA LOOK LIKE FOR LAWMAKERS IN THE TIME THEY HAVE LEFT? JOE: WE ARE TRYING TO GET A SENSE OF THAT, BECAUSE IT CHANGED TUESDAY. WE THOUGHT THEY WOULD ADDRESS FUNDING, WHICH EXPIRES ON DECEMBER 11. WE HAVE TO FUND THE GOVERNMENT AND THERE WAS TALK ABOUT A TWO-YEAR CR. LET'S GET IT DONE, MAY BE A RECONCILIATION BILL. GET THE DEBT LIMIT, THE BUDGET, TRUMP DOESN'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT ANYTHING. DEMOCRATS ARE NOT GOING TO SIGN OFF ON THAT NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE LAME-DUCK BRINGS. THERE WAS HELP AS WELL -- HOPE AS WELL FOR A PERMITTING DEAL. THAT SEEMS TO HAVE FALLEN DOWN BECAUSE HOW HAKEEM JEFFRIES WANTS TO MAKE CHANGES. IT APPEARED TO BE ON THE LAUNCHPAD, NOW HAS BEEN PULLED BACK. AS FAR AS THE NEXT CONGRESS, YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF HEARINGS. MICK MULVANEY TOLD US ELON MUSK WILL SPEND MORE TIME IN A HEARING ROOM THEN SPACEX HEADQUARTERS. IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW MANY CORPORATE EXECUTIVES ARE DRAGGED TO WASHINGTON. THE BIG QUESTION -- I GO BACK TO YOUR INTERVIEW LAST WEEKEND WITH GREGORY MEEKS. PETE HEGSETH IS ONE THING. ARE WE GOING TO HAVE ACTUAL ARTICLES OF IMPEACHMENT THAT COME FROM A NEW DSA NUMBER OF THE HOUSE? ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. LEADERS DON'T WANT TO DO IT, THOUGH. DAVID: APPRECIATE YOU BRINGING IT UP. CHRISTINA WASN'T HERE LAST WEEK, SO SHE MISSED THAT MASTER CLASS WITH A SENIOR MEMBER OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. CHRISTINA: I'M GOING TO MOVE RIGHT ON FROM THAT. JOE, IS THERE CONCERN AMONG DEMOCRATS THAT THEY ARE GOING TO OVERPLAY THEIR HAND HERE? PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN TO HAVE SAID THIS WAS NOT AN ENDORSEMENT NECESSARILY OF DEMOCRATIC POLICIES. IT WAS A REBUKE OF THE PRESIDENT DURING IF THEY GO BACK TO THEIR USUAL BUSINESS OF IMPEACHMENT, IMPEACHMENT, HEARING, HEARING, AND DON'T GET THINGS DONE THEY ARE GOING TO LOSE AGAIN IN 2028. JOE: THAT IS WHY GREGORY MEEKS STOPPED DAVID AND SAID THE I-WORD IS NOT ONE I'M UTILIZING. THERE IS GREAT CONCERN ABOUT OVERAGE. WE TALKED ABOUT THAT WITH DON BUYER LAST EVENING. IF YOU TALK TO THE ELDERS IN THE PARTY, PARTICULARLY THOSE WHO CONSIDER THEMSELVES LEFT-LEANING MODERATES, THEY HAVE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE, AND MOST OF THEM BELIEVE THAT JANUARY 6 IMPEACHMENT WAS WORTHWHILE. THEY DO NOT ALL BELIEVE THE UKRAINE PERFECT PHONE CALL IMPEACHMENT WAS WORTHWHILE AND I DON'T THINK THEY WANT TO REPLAY THAT FILM. THEY ARE FOCUSED ON 2028. THEY NEED TO PROVE TO VOTERS THEY GOT ELECTED FOR A REASON. I'M NOT SURE A PROTRACTED IMPEACHMENT IS GOING TO HELP. DAVID: APPRECIATE YOU WATCHING THE SHOW, BUT JOINING US ON A SATURDAY MORNING. JOE MATHIEU, COANCHOR OF \"BALANCE OF POWER.\" CHRISTINA: JOE IS THE BEST. DAVID: WATCH JOE AND KAILEY LEINZ AT 1:00 AND 5:00 P.M. EASTERN ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION. CHRISTINA: HE HAS HAD A LONG WEEK. WE HAD THE BREAKING NEWS AND HE WAS THE ONE TO HELP US OUT. EXCELLENT PERSPECTIVE. MOMENTS AGO BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY REPORTED ITS THIRD-QUARTER EARNINGS. DAVID: WANT TO BRING IN MATTHEW PALAZOLA, ANALYST FOR BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE. YOU HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THESE NUMBERS COMING IN. LET ME HIGHLIGHT A FEW OF THEM, DEMARCATED IN RED. CHIEFLY, THE BUYBACK OF 9.6 BILLION DOLLARS IN SHARES. YOU EXPECTED MORE BUYBACKS GOING INTO THIS. WHAT DOES THAT NUMBER TELL YOU ABOUT THE HEALTH OF THIS COMPANY? MATTHEW: I LIKE THAT NUMBER. WE KNEW BECAUSE OF DISCLOSED SHARE COUNTS THEY PROBABLY BROUGHT BACK AT LEAST $4 BILLION AND CHANGE IN THE QUARTER. WE KNEW THAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. WE LOOKED AT THE VALUATION OF THE STOCK THROUGH THE QUARTER AND SAID, IT ACTUALLY GOT CHEAPER THROUGH THE QUARTER, SO IT WOULD MAKE SINCE THEY WOULD HAVE BROUGHT BACK EVEN -- BOUGHT BACK EVEN MORE. LAST QUARTER I WAS DISAPPOINTED. THIS QUARTER I THINK IT IS A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE, ALTHOUGH YOU HAVE SEEN THE STOCK RALLY HARD POST-QUARTER. I WOULD EXPECT THIS TAILS OFF IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. CHRISTINA: LAST TIME YOU WERE HERE WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THEIR CASH PILE. DID THAT HELP THEM AVOID SOME OF THIS BOND MARKET VOLATILITY? MATTHEW: IT IS DOING WELL. [LAUGHTER] CHRISTINA: MY CASH PILE IS DOING LESS WELL. PILES. 50 $7 BILLION OF CASH. THEY DON'T OWN A LOT OF FIXED INCOME, SO THEY HAVE THIS BIG INSURANCE BUSINESS. TYPICALLY YOU WILL SEE AN INSURANCE BUSINESS BACKED BY FIXED INCOME. THEY ARE A LITTLE UNIQUE. THEIRS IS BACKED BY EQUITIES. CHRISTINA: IS THAT A DELIBERATE CHOICE? MATTHEW: THAT IS, BECAUSE FOR YEARS THEY HAD THE GREATEST INVESTOR OF ALL TIME RUNNING THE PORTFOLIO. DAVID: I WANTED TO ASK YOU ABOUT GEICO, THE INSURANCE BUSINESS. WHAT DID WE LEARN ABOUT THE REINSURANCE BUSINESS? MATTHEW: IT LOOKS LIKE THE INSURANCE AS A WHOLE BUSINESS CAME IN WHERE I THOUGHT. THE EARNINGS WERE DOWN 50%. THAT SOUNDS WORSE THAN IT IS. THEY WERE HIGHLY INFLATED GOING INTO IT. IF ANYONE HAS DRIVEN A CAR YOU HAVE PROBABLY SEEN THAT YOUR AUTO INSURANCE RATES WENT UP A LOT. AND THAT WAS ACROSS-THE-BOARD. WHAT GEICO DID WAS SHED A LOT OF CUSTOMERS. THEIR EARNINGS WERE RECORD NUMBERS, UNSUSTAINABLY HIGH. THEY CAME DOWN FROM THAT, SO THE INSURANCE BUSINESS, STILL GOOD, BUT DOWN FROM THESE INSANELY HIGH NUMBERS. CHRISTINA:+ ♪ HOW ARE BERKSHIRE HATHAWA FANS FEELING ABOUT THE GREG ABEL CHOICE? HE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEALS AND TENETS OF THE LEGACY, BUT HE HAS MADE HIS OWN CHOICES AS WELL. MATTHEW: THERE IS NO REPLACING WARREN BUFFETT, RIGHT? BUT I THINK HE HAS DONE A GOOD JOB. PEOPLE I TALK TO, I THINK THEY WANT TO -- PEOPLE WANT TO SEE SOME DRAMATIC THING, RIGHT? BUT THEY CAN'T DO THAT. THEY ARE GOING TO BE MEASURED. IN OUR PREVIEW NOTE WE PUT OUT A TABLE THAT SHOWED CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT FOR GREG ABEL IN 2026 VERSUS CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS, AND HE HAS DONE ALMOST AS MUCH IN NINE MONTHS THAN THEY DID IN THE PREVIOUS FIVE YEARS. HE IS DEPLOYING CAPITAL. TO THE EXTENT IT CAN MOVE THE NEEDLE FOR THE ENTIRE CONGLOMERATE REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT HE IS PUTTING MONEY OUT THERE. DAVID: ALWAYS A FUN EXERCISE TO HAVE THINGS WRITTEN BY YOU READ BACK TO YOU. GREG ABEL HAS PUT ABOUT AS MUCH HALF AS MUCH CAPITAL TO WORK AS WARREN BUFFETT DID THE PRIOR FOUR YEARS. YOU ALSO NOTED HE IS GETTING INTO NEW KINDS OF BUSINESSES. TALK A BIT ABOUT THAT. IN THE PAST WE HAVE SEEN THESE ADVENTURES TAKE THEM INTO TERRITORY THEY ARE FAMILIAR WITH. HOW MUCH IS HE CHARTING NEW TERRAIN HERE? MATTHEW: INTERESTING THING. THEY NOW OWN A SIGNIFICANT SHARE IN ALPHABET, WHICH WE KNOW. THAT WAS STARTED UNDER WARREN BUFFETT. THAT WAS AROUND THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2025 WHEN THEY STARTED IT. THIS YEAR THEY ACCELERATED THOSE PURCHASES. I WENT BACK AND LOOKED BECAUSE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER THESE STOCKS ARE NOT DOING WELL. AND I SAID, MAN, THEY ARE PROBABLY TAKING A BATH ON THIS. THEY ARE PROBABLY DOWN A BILLION AND A HALF OR SOMETHING, SO THE SELLOFF IN GOOGLE SHARES HAS NOT HURT THEM AS MUCH. THEY HAVE NOT REALLY GIVEN A TONE OF INFORMATION WHY THEY DID IT. BUT I DO THINK, AT LEAST THEY VIEWED THE GOOGLE BUSINESS AS NOT ONLY A PLAY ON AI, BUT HAVING, ASIDE FROM AI THEY PARTICIPATED IN AN IPO FOR BENDING SPOONS. DAVID: THE ITALIAN AI COMPANY. MATTHEW: DON'T WE ALL LOVE ITALIAN AI COMPANIES. CHRISTINA: BETWEEN FLUTE KNOWLEDGE AND ITALIAN AI COMPANY KNOWLEDGE I CAN'T COMPETE. MATTHEW: THEY BUY OTHER TECH COMPANIES AND REHABILITATE THEM, SO IT IS NOT NECESSARILY A TECH IPO PLAY, BUT KIND OF A UNIQUE THING FOR THEM. EVERY DISSIPATED IN THE POSITION. BUT, YOU KNOW, NEWER THINGS. THEY MADE SOME ACQUISITIONS IN THE HOMEBUILDERS, WHICH IS A BUSINESS THEY ARE IN AS WELL AND THE CHEMICAL BUSINESS. A LITTLE BIT OF NEW AND BUSINESSES THEY ARE FAMILIAR WITH. CHRISTINA: WHAT ARE YOU EXPECTING NEXT? MATTHEW: I THINK PROBABLY MORE EQUITY PURCHASES. I WOULD HOPE MAYBE THEY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF WEAKNESS. IN THIS QUARTER IT LOOKS LIKE THEY DID NOT BUY -- IT LOOKS LIKE A NET SELLING OFF OF EQUITIES, WHICH IS NOT DRAMATIC. THEY BOUGHT A LOT SO FAR, BUT MAYBE THEY LEAN MORE INTO THE EQUITY MARKET. CHRISTINA: THANK YOU SO MUCH. DAVID: GREAT TO SEE YOU AS THOSE NUMBERS CROSS. CHRISTINA: WE LOVE BREAKING NEWS. SPEAKING OF ROLLER COASTERS, THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN TECH STOCKS THIS WEEK ENDING IN NUMBERS NOT SEEN IN DECADES, BUT THIS IS A SHORT-TERM IMPACT. COULD IMPACT HOW INVESTORS ARE THINKING? WE HAVE TO DIG THROUGH THAT COMING UP NEXT ON BLOOMBERG \"THIS WEEKEND.\" ♪ LISA: THANK YOU FOR JOINING US LIVE ON BLOOMBERG \"THIS WEEKEND.\" A WOMAN WHO HAD BECOME CLOSE TO NVIDIA CEO JEN-HSUN HUANG WAS REPORTEDLY WORKING FOR A CHINESE SPY AGENCY. THE NEW YORK TIMES SAYS INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS HAVE INFORMED THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SHE WAS RECRUITED TO COLLECT INFORMATION ABOUT HIM. ALICE MAUNG IS AN EXECUTIVE WITH MEGA SPEED INTERNATIONAL. OPENAI HAS CLOSED ON A NEW FUNDING OF ROUGHLY $11 BILLION. PART OF THE INITIAL PART OF A ROUND THAT VALUES THE COMPANY AT $1.25 TRILLION. SOURCES TELL BLOOMBERG THE FUNDING WAS RIGHT -- WIRED TO THE COMPANY AND THE REMAINDER COULD INCREASE AS MUCH AS $20 BILLION IN TOTAL. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED IN THE COMING WEEKS. POPE LEO KICKED OFF HIS SOUTH AMERICA TWO ARE JUST THREE WEEKS AFTER HIS CANCER SURGERY. THE 71-YEAR-OLD PONTIFF IS RESIDING OVER MASS RIGHT NOW IN URUGUAY. HE WILL LATER MEET WITH THE PRESIDENT OF THE COUNTRY DURING HIS 13.5-HOUR FLIGHT FROM ROME TO URUGUAY. HE SAID HE KNEW SOME PEOPLE WERE NOT SURE HE SHOULD MAKE THE TRIP. >> I CONFESS THAT FROM THE FIRST DAY I HAD NO DOUBT AND WAS CONVINCED THAT THIS TRIP HAD TO GO FORWARD. AND I'M VERY HAPPY TO SAY, PRAISE THE LORD, AND THANKS TO WONDERFUL MEDICAL ASSISTANCE I AM HERE TODAY. I THINK, IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. LISA: I THINK MORE THAN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE. THE POPE TO 30,000 PEOPLE AS HE PULLED INTO MONTEVIDEO IN HIS POPE MOBILE. OF THAT. RIGHT AFTER URUGUAY HE'S GOING TO HEAD TO ARGENTINA AND PERU. HE HAS A LOT LINED UP. DAVID: SCOTT DETRA, WHO WROTE THAT BOOK ABOUT HIM, SAID IT IS IMPORTANT FOR HIM TO GO BACK TO WHERE HE SPENT SO MUCH OF HIS TIME. CHRISTINA: THAT POPE MOBILE IS VERY COOL. DESPITE THE WILD SWINGS WE SAW IN TECH STOCKS THIS WEEK HISTORICALLY THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS LEAD TO HIGHER RETURNS. THE S&P HAS GAINED IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS FOLLOWING A MIDTERM THAT IS GOING BACK TO BEFORE WORLD WAR II. DAVID: THE SUPER SPENDING ON AI, MICROCHIPS COULD COMPLICATE HOPES AS INVESTORS PULLED BACK. JOINING US NOW, AMANDA AGATI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF PNC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT. WE HAD DAN IVES ON THE SHOW. HE SAID HE WAS WHITE KNUCKLING AT THIS WEEK, BUT DOESN'T SEE THIS AS THE DEATH KNELL OF AI. I DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE ROUTE WE SAW? AMANDA: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME BACK. I WAS NOT REALLY WHITE KNUCKLING IT SO MUCH THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH I LOVE ME SOME DAN IVES. TOTALLY, TOTALLY, YOU KNOW, THE GODFATHER OF TECH, RIGHT? SO, I DEFINITELY FOLLOW HIS PERSPECTIVE VERY CLOSELY, BUT THIS WAS A COUPLE OF DAYS OF WILD SWINGS AS A FUNCTION OF, YOU KNOW, WHAT LOOKS LIKE NOW -- IT DID NOT QUITE LOOK RIGHT IN THE MOMENT, BUT WHAT LOOKS LIKE NOW SOME PRETTY OFF CITED TRADES FOR SOME OF THE BIG HEDGE FUNDS. I THINK INVESTORS AND MAYBE THE HEADLINES SUGGESTED THAT THE RESULTS OF THE ELECTION WAS REALLY THE DEATH KNELL, AS YOU SAID. I DON'T THINK IT HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH THAT. THERE IS GOING TO BE SOME CHANGE AT THE MARGIN. DATA CENTERS IN THE CROSSHAIRS. THIS IS NOT THE END OF THE INNOVATION CYCLE. THIS IS A MARKET CLEARING EVENT, SO WE CAN REFOCUS ON WHAT THE NEXT TWO YEARS IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE. FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A DOWNDRAFT WE SAW IN TECH THIS WEEK I WOULD BE A BUYER. IT DID NOT REALLY FALL FAR ENOUGH TO BACK UP THE TRUCK, PER SE, AS WE HAVE GOOD EXPOSURE. TO THE EXTENT WE SEE MORE WEAKNESS AHEAD I WOULD BE LEANING IN, FOR SURE. CHRISTINA: YOU ALSO WRITE THAT GRIDLOCK CAN BE MARKET-FRIENDLY BECAUSE IT REDUCES THE PROBABILITY OF MAJOR POLICY SURPRISES. PLEASE EXPLAIN THAT. AMANDA: YES. MARKETS LOVE GRIDLOCK. EVEN THOUGH EVERYBODY WAS TALKING ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC SWEEP I KEEP SAYING, WAIT A MINUTE, IT IS ACTUALLY GRIDLOCK. IT IS A CHANGE OF CONTROL. WE LOOKED AT THIS THROUGH MANY ELECTION CYCLES AND MARKETS ALWAYS PREFER GRIDLOCK OR DIVIDED CONTROL, BECAUSE, AS YOU SAID, AND AS WE WROTE, IT DOES LIMIT BOTH PARTIES' ABILITY TO AFFECT THE -- AFFECT CHANGE. IT SLOWS THINGS DOWN. THERE IS THIS NATURAL GOVERNOR ON BOTH SIDES. I THINK THIS ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT NORMAL, SO THERE IS ALWAYS AN EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. I DO THINK OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS WE WILL SEE, CERTAINLY A LITTLE BIT MORE MODERATION, PROBABLY FROM BOTH SIDES. I THINK THE MARKET WILL BE VERY HAPPY AND CONTENT WITH THAT. GOING INTO ELECTION NIGHT, SEEING THE RESULTS START TO ROLL IN, THE MARKET REACTION FELT VERY RATIONAL AGAINST MORE OF A DIVIDED CONTROL ENVIRONMENT IN WASHINGTON. DAVID: I WOULD LOVE TO ASK YOU ABOUT ELECTION NIGHT. HAD DANI BURGER AND SCARLET FU LOOKING AT THE MARKET REACTION REAL-TIME, AND OBVIOUSLY THERE WAS A LOT OF ANXIETY IN THE MARKET SURROUNDING THE NEWS THAT DEMOCRATS WERE GOING TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE HOUSE AND SENATE. ALL OF THIS WAS KIND OF EQUILIBRIA AIDED LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN WHAT YOU HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT, OUR SENSE OF HISTORY, HOW GRIDLOCK WORKS, WHAT YOU THINK WE HAD THAT INITIAL REACTION? WHAT HE THINK THERE WAS SO MUCH SURPRISE AS RESULTS CAME IN TUESDAY NIGHT? AMANDA: I DON'T KNOW THAT THERE WAS THAT BIG OF A SURPRISE IN TERMS OF THE CHANGE IN CONTROL. CONTROL. CERTAINLY PREDICTION MARKETS, BETTING MARKETS. THAT WOULD BE THE CASE. WE CERTAINLY THOUGHT THAT. IT LITERALLY CAME DOWN TO HOW WIDE THE MARGIN WAS. MOST WERE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SUCH A SIGNIFICANT -- WE WILL CALL IT TITLE WAVE. I DO THINK THAT CREATED A LITTLE BIT OF NERVOUSNESS. RIGHT? THE MARKET IS ALWAYS LIKE, HOW DO I PROCESS THIS IN REAL TIME? I THINK THE MARKET WAS NERVOUS, BUT THEN AS WE STARTED TO SEE COLLABORATION AND COOPERATION MESSAGES COMING FROM BOTH SIDES I THINK THE MARKETS SETTLED DOWN A LOT. THE DAY FOLLOWING FELT VERY RATIONAL. A TWO, NOT RATIONAL, BUT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. CHRISTINA: WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE DIFFERENT SECTORS THAT COULD BE MOST INFLUENCED BY THIS POLICY STAGE. WHY IS THAT AND WHAT DO YOU EXPECT TO SEE? AMANDA: WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT EVERY ELECTION CYCLE IS IT SEEMS LIKE HEALTH CARE IS ALWAYS IN THE CROSSHAIRS. IT WAS NOT PUBLIC ENEMY NUMBER ONE THIS ELECTION CYCLE. IT SEEMINGLY WAS ABOUT DATA CENTERS. A.K.A., THE NEW FRACKING. HEALTH CARE WAS IN THE BACKGROUND. I DO THINK WITH THE DEMOCRATS TAKING CONTROL WITH THE EXTENT THEY HAVE IT IS GOING TO BECOME POLICY NUMBER ONE. WE HAVE SEEN A LOT OF CHANGES, RIGHT? ACA SUBSIDIES, BIG PHARMA IN THE CROSSHAIRS AS IT RELATES TO STICKIER INFLATION, THEN I THINK PROBABLY ANYBODY CARES FOR. I DO THINK THAT IS GOING TO BE A VERY IMPORTANT AND EARLY FOCUS FOR THE DEMOCRATS. I THINK THE BIG QUESTION FOR INVESTORS IS WHAT ULTIMATELY IS ASPIRATIONAL VERSUS WHAT THEY CAN GET DONE. FOR US, THERE IS A LOT OF NUANCE AS IT RELATES TO PLAYING IN THE HEALTH CARE SECTOR. ACTIVELY MANAGED IS PROBABLY THE RIGHT APPROACH. DAVID: I KEEP FLAGGING THIS PIECE THAT BLOOMBERG DID. THE ROLE THAT AI PLAYS ACROSS SECTORS NOW AND THE ECONOMY OVERALL. IT MAKES ME WONDER FOR THOSE WHO ARE NERVOUS ABOUT THIS MOMENT AND DON'T WANT TO HAVE EXPOSURE TO AI, IS THAT AN IMPOSSIBILITY, GIVEN HOW MUCH INVESTMENT THERE HAS BEEN? HOW BULLISH PEOPLE HAVE BEEN ON THE PROSPECTS OF THIS TECHNOLOGY? IS IT SOMETHING THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO AVOID? AMANDA: I DON'T KNOW THAT IT IS NECESSARILY IMPOSSIBLE TO AVOID. I THINK IT WOULD BE A HUGE MISTAKE. ON THE PART OF INVESTORS, TO TRY TO AVOID IT OR BE VERY SHORT EXPOSURE TO AI. IT IS THE NAME -- NEXT WAVE OF INNOVATION AFTER A DROUGHT OF INNOVATION, AND FRANKLY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WE HAVE TO FIGURE THIS OUT. GETTING PAST THE ELECTION IS IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF GETTING TO A LITTLE MORE CLARITY. IT IS NOT FULL ON \"MR. BLUE SKY I HAD TO GIVE YOU A SONG REFERENCE. CHRISTINA: WE WERE WAITING. AMANDA: IT IS NOT FULL ON \"MR. BLUE SKY,\" BUT IT IS GOING TO PROVIDE CLARITY IN THE MIDST OF \"PURPLE HAZE\" ALL YEAR. MAYBE IT TAKES ON A DOUBLE MEETING WITH THE BLUE WAVE WE GOT AS WELL, BUT \"MR. BLUE SKY,\" TO ME, FEELS LIKE THE RIGHT APPROACH, BECAUSE WE ARE GOING TO GET MORE CLARITY. THERE IS GOING TO BE WINNERS AND LOSERS. LIKE WITH HEALTH CARE, THERE IS GOING TO BE NUANCE HERE. IT IS NOT A RISING TIDE LIFTS ALL BOATS, BUT I THINK IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE FOR INVESTORS TO BE MATERIALLY SHORT HERE. WE ARE JUST GETTING GOING. IT IS EARLY TO MIDDLE INNINGS OF THIS CYCLE AND WE HAVE NOT FELT MEANS. WE HAVE NOT SEEN A LOT OF THE USE CASES BORNE OUT YET EITHER. THINK THERE IS A LOT OF OPPORTUNITY LEFT IN THE CYCLE. CHRISTINA: TO DAVID'S POINT, IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS I HAVE GOTTEN A LOT OF CALLS AND HAD CONVERSATIONS WITH PEOPLE ASKING MY ADVICE BECAUSE THEY ARE WORRIED ABOUT PUTTING ANY MONEY IN THE MARKET RIGHT NOW. NO ONE SHOULD EVER TAKE FINANCIAL MARKETS ADVICE FOR ME. DAVID: I DID A DOUBLE TAKE ON THAT. CHRISTINA: HOWEVER, IF YOU ARE NOT ME, IF YOU ARE YOU, WHAT IS YOUR ADVICE? ESPECIALLY PEOPLE WHO HAVE A VERY LOW RISK PROFILE AND CANNOT AFFORD TO RECOVER IF THERE ARE BIG FLUCTUATIONS IN THESE INVESTMENTS? PEOPLE ARE TELLING ME THEY JUST WANT TO GET OUT. AMANDA: IT CERTAINLY IS A FEAR OF THE UNKNOWN, RIGHT? IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHAT THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS ARE GOING TO LOOK LIKE, PARTICULARLY AS IT RELATES TO THINGS AI. I COME BACK TO THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS. DOES THAT TELL ME? SENTIMENT MAY FEEL NEGATIVE. THERE MAY BE AN OVERHANG THERE IN THE SHORT RUN, BUT I COME BACK TO THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS. THERE IS THIS UNDERAPPRECIATED RESILIENCE TO BOTH THE ECONOMIC GROWTH BACKDROP, AS WELL AS THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP. ALL YOU NEED TO DO IS LOOK AT Q3 EARNINGS TO SEE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF BREADTH UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE. IT IS NOT ABOUT ONE NAME OR SEVEN NAMES. THE BOTTOM 493 ARE SHOWING LIFE IN THE S&P AND WE HAVE A LOT OF MOMENTUM GOING INTO THE END OF THE YEAR. I THINK THAT SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SOLID -- MAYBE NOT QUITE AS STRONG, BUT ANOTHER SOLID ONE. I'M NOT RUNNING THE OTHER DIRECTION FROM THIS EQUITY MARKET. WHEN WE LOOK AT VALUATIONS WE ARE SITTING AT CHEAPER LEVELS TODAY THEN WHERE WE WERE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A BALANCED APPROACH IF YOUR TIME HORIZON IS SHORTER. DAVID: JUST LIKE MR. BLUE, WE ARE PLEASED TO BE WITH YOU. AMANDA AGATI ON SATURDAY MONEY. CHRISTINA: ONE OF THESE DAYS WE ARE GOING TO KEEP UP WITH HER AND PLAY THE SONGS. EARLY RESULTS FROM NEW ZEALAND'S ELECTIONS SHOW IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL BETWEEN THE CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT AND MORE LEFT-WING OPPOSITION. IT IS THE TIGHTEST ELECTION IN MONTH. DAVID: THE NATION IS DEALING WITH AN EXODUS OF WORKING-AGE CITIZENS, REPLACED BY BILLIONAIRES. WHY SO MANY PEOPLE ARE LEAVING NEW ZEALAND. >> TO MUCH OF THE WORLD NEW ZEALAND LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY PERFECT. A REAL MIDDLE EARTH. BUT WITH A FUNCTIONING DEMOCRACY AND MORE SEALS. >> EVERYONE KNOWS SOMEONE WHO HAS PEOPLE ARE SORT OF SAYING, SHOULD WE GO TOO? >> MEANWHILE, THE SUPER-RICH ARE APPLYING TO MOVE IN, LURED BY ISOLATION, STABILITY, AND ITS VAST COLLECTION OF GOLF COURSES. IN THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF 2026 CITIZEN DEPARTURES TO NEIGHBORING AUSTRALIA HIT A 13-YEAR HIGH. ADVENTURE. ESTABLISHED WORKERS AND FAMILIES ARE GOING TOO. >> IT IS LIKE WE ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO RETAIN YOU AND YOU ARE LEAVING, AND PEOPLE WHO ARE STAYING BEHIND THINK, WHAT IS HAPPENING HERE? >> IT FEELS LIKE IT IS A PLACE THAT HAS TRIED MANY TIMES TO BE RICHER, MORE DYNAMIC. BUT WE HAVE BEEN DOING THIS NOW FOR 20, 30 YEARS. >> SO WHAT IS GOING ON? WHY ARE SO MANY KIWIS EVEN THEIR HOME? AND CAN THE COUNTRY TURN THINGS AROUND FOR THE EXODUS STARTS FEEDING ITSELF? CHRISTINA: I RANDOMLY WAS SPEAKING TO A NEW ZEALANDER ABOUT THIS LAST NIGHT AND THEY WERE EXPLAINING TO ME, WHEN WE TALK ABOUT LEFT AND RIGHT POLITICS IT IS MORE LEFT-CENTER, RIGHT-CENTER, AND IT TENDS TO SWING BACK AND FORTH. THE YOUNG PEOPLE AND COMING OFF OF COVID THE ECONOMY HAS NOT REBOUNDED WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE. DAVID: CHECK OUT THAT DOCUMENTARY AT BLOOMBERG.COM/VIDEOS, AND OF COURSE ON THE TERMINAL. WHILE SOME STATES ARE RATING ON WAITING ON RESULTS, THE POWER SHIFT HAS VOTERS WONDERING WHAT IS NEXT? \"THIS WEEKEND.\" STAY WITH US. ♪ LISA: THANK YOU FOR JOINING US LIVE ON BLOOMBERG \"THIS WEEKEND.\" MICROSOFT IS WINDING DOWN AN ARRANGEMENT TO RENT AI COMPUTING FROM ORACLE. IT IS PART OF A REASSESSMENT IN CLOUD PARTNERSHIPS. THE COMPUTING MICROSOFT WAS RENTING BECAME LESS USEFUL BECAUSE IT NO LONGER FIT THE COMPANY'S SPECIFICATION THE ORACLE HARDWARE USED OLDER GENERATION NVIDIA CHIPS. JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT THEY WERE GONE, YEEZYS ARE BACK. BRAND HAS A NEW PARTNERSHIP. THE SHOES FROM YE ARE NOW AVAILABLE FOR SALE ONLINE AND IN-STORES. IT COMES AFTER BRANDS LIKE GAP AND ADIDAS CUT TIES WITH YE FOLLOWING ANTI-SEMITIC REMARKS HE HAS MADE HE HAS SINCE APOLOGIZED AND IS LOOKING TO REBUILD THE BRAND. HOLIDAY SPIRIT IN THE AIR. THIS YEAR'S ROCKEFELLER CENTER CHRISTMAS TREE WAS CUT DOWN AND WILL BE TRUCKED TO NEW YORK CITY. 70-6 FOOT NORWAY SPRUCE WILL ARRIVE TODAY. IT IS ABOUT 75 YEARS OLD. IT'S GOING TO BE WRAPPED WITH 50,000 LED LIGHTS AND CROWNED WITH A 900 POUND SARAO SKI STAR. REBECCA IS THE OWNER OF THE TREE. >> I HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT THE MILLIONS OF PEOPLE THAT WILL GO AND SEE THE TREE, THAT WILL INTERACT WITH IT. EVERYTHING IT WILL BRING TO THEM, AND I'M HOPEFUL IT BRINGS THE SAME KIND OF PEACE AND JOY IT BRINGS HERE TO US. LISA: THE TREE WILL BE LED IN A CEREMONY DECEMBER 2 AND IS GOING TO BE ON DISPLAY UNTIL JANUARY 9. DAVID: I DON'T MEAN TO BE A GRAND CHAIR. -- A GRINCH. IT IS A MONTH AND A HALF, YOU CAN'T GET THROUGH ANYWHERE. CHRISTINA: YOU CAN'T GET OUT OF THE OFFICE AND THEY ESCORT YOU OUT AND DUMP YOU INTO THIS SEA OF PEOPLE. DAVID: YES, I DO HOPE, LIKE THE OWNER OF THE TREE, IT BRINGS JOY AND PEACE TO A LOT OF PEOPLE. IT BROUGHT ME A LOT OF CONSTERNATION AND OUTRAGE. CHRISTINA: SPEAKING OF JOY, THANK YOU, LISA. DAVID: WE ARE WAY -- WAITING ON THE SENATE CONTEST IN ALASKA AND MISSISSIPPI, STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL. CHRISTINA: EXIT POLLS ARE GIVING US A BETTER SENSE OF WHAT TRIGGERED THAT BLUE WAVE. ASHLEY, I HAVE BEEN WANTING TO TALK TO YOU SINCE TUESDAY, BECAUSE WE WERE SEEING THE VOTE THAT WE WERE NOT SEEING WHAT WAS BEHIND IT. MY FIRST QUESTION IS, WHAT WAS THE BIGGER BENEFIT? OR DOES IT VARY? IS IT THAT REPUBLICANS SWITCHED THEIR VOTE? ASHLEY: WE DON'T KNOW YET. IT COULD BE A COMBINATION OF ALL THREE. LET'S BRING ON CHRISTMAS. I'M GOING TO GO ON THE RECORD. CHRISTINA: YOU GUYS ARE KILLING ME TODAY. ASHLEY: I REALLY THINK IT IS ALL THREE OF THOSE THINGS AND WE WILL NOT KNOW UNTIL WE LOOK AT THE NUMBERS MORE AND MORE. IT COULD HAVE BEEN LATE-DECIDERS. IT COULD HAVE BEEN SWITCHERS. WE KNOW THOSE ARE TYPICALLY IN THE TRUMP CAMP, AT LEAST IN PRESIDENTIAL YEARS. IT WAS A HUGE OVER PERFORMANCE BY DEMOCRATS AND AN UNDERPERFORMANCE BY REPUBLICANS WHO JUST DID NOT TURN OUT. REPORTS OF YOUNGER REPUBLICAN VOTERS, YOUNGER BLACK REPUBLICAN VOTERS IN THE SOUTH NOT TURNING OUT TO THE SAME DEGREE AS YOUNGER DEMOCRATIC VOTERS. SO, ALL OF THOSE THINGS MADE FOR THE PERFECT STORM. DAVID: CHRISTINA ASKED YOU ABOUT EXIT POLLS. WE ARE NOT USING EXIT POLLS ALONE BECAUSE SO MANY PEOPLE ARE VOTING EARLY OR BY MAIL. CAN GET OF WHAT MOTIVATED PEOPLE ON ELECTION DAY? ASHLEY: IT HAS ALWAYS BEEN A COMPLICATED PICTURE, BUT IT RESULTS. WE HAVE A BUNCH OF DIFFERENT THINGS GOING ON NOW. NOW THERE IS THE VOTER POLL ELECTION DAY. SO, NOT THE EXIT POLLS OF, YOU KNOW, THE PAST. BUT IT TELLS US ABOUT THESE DEMOGRAPHICS AND HOW THESE DEMOGRAPHICS VOTED. AND IT TELLS US A LOT ABOUT WHO VOTED, WHY THEY VOTED. TO NO SURPRISE TO ANYONE, TOP CONCERNS BEING THE ECONOMY AND STATE OF DEMOCRACY. IT REALLY TELLS US THE HOW AND WHY OF WHAT VOTERS DID. CHRISTINA: OUR COLLEAGUES AT THE \"NEW YORK TIMES\" SPENT A LOT OF TIME TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY DID THEIR SAMPLING THIS TIME, BECAUSE OF HOW UNDER-SAMPLED THEY HAD BEEN WITH REPUBLICANS IN PREVIOUS RACES. DO YOU THINK POLLSTERS OVERCORRECTED WITH THE SAMPLING OF CONSERVATIVE VOTERS? ASHLEY: THAT IS SUCH A GREAT QUESTION AND BOTH OF YOU WOULD PASS MY CLASS BY FLYING COLORS. THAT IS A GREAT POINT. WHAT THE NEW YORK TIMES DOES AND SETS ITSELF APART AND SHOWS THE SMALLEST ERROR BETWEEN ITS FINAL RESULTS AND WHAT WE SAW HAPPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WHAT SETS THIS APART IS THE VERY COMPLEX WAY IN WHICH IT GOES ABOUT WAITING REPUBLICANS AND ESPECIALLY THOSE TRUMP-SUPPORTING REPUBLICANS. POLLSTERS HAVE TAKEN ON SOMETHING CALLED RECALLED VOTE IN THEIR CALCULATIONS. THERE IS NO SECRET SAUCE THAT EVERY POLLSTER USES TO WAIT THE DATA TO LOOK LIKE THE POPULATION. IT IS EDUCATED GUESSING, BASICALLY. EDUCATED BEST PRACTICES, BUT STILL A LOT OF ASSUMPTION AND SUBJECTS WAS IN THAT SUBJECTIVITY GOES INTO IT. THERE IS A LITTLE SCIENCE AND ART BLENDED TOGETHER. THIS RECALLED THE BOAT IS OBVIOUSLY WAITING TO THE PREVIOUS ELECTION WHEN WE SAW LARGE REPUBLICAN TURNOUT. NOW, WE KNOW THE ELECTORATE WAS NOT THE SAME THIS TIME AROUND. WE KNOW THAT NO ELECTORATE IS THE SAME AS IN THE PAST. THERE IS A QUESTION. SHOULD WE BE DOING THIS? OVER-INFLATING REPUBLICANS AT A TIME WHEN TRUMP IS NOT AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET? DAVID: YOU WERE HERE LAST WEEK. WAS IT LAST WEEK? ASHLEY: IT WAS. DAVID: WE WERE TALKING ABOUT MAINE AND HOW SUSAN COLLINS HAS OUTPERFORMED POLLS IN THE PAST. HOW DID THE POLLS DO BROADLY SPEAKING? I THINK THERE WAS SOME SENSE THAT THERE IS DEMOCRATIC ENTHUSIASM. I HEARD A NOTE OF CAUTION. THEY ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE FACT THAT POLLS MIGHT BE MISLEADING. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE WAY POLLING FORECASTS, ON TUESDAY NIGHT, HOW ACCURATE WERE THEY? ASHLEY: I WOULD SAY IT IS A MIXED BAG. WE GOT THE DIRECTION. THE MAGNITUDE WAS A LITTLE UNDER WE SAW DEMOCRATS. IT UNDERESTIMATED DEMOCRATS, WHICH IS INTERESTING BECAUSE EVERYONE WAS WONDERING, OR REPUBLICANS BEING UNDERESTIMATED? AGAIN, IT REALLY DEPENDS UPON THAT POLLSTER. THE GENERIC BALLOT WAS, I THINK WE ARE GOING TO SEE D +13 NATIONALLY. NEW YORK TIMES WAS A FEW POINTS BELOW THAT. FOR EXAMPLE, OTHER POLLSTERS WERE MORE THAN THAT. SO, THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE POLLSTERS WE TALK ABOUT, THE AVERAGES WE TALK ABOUT, WHO WE INCLUDE IN THOSE, AND SOME HAVE FOUND THAT MORE OF THOSE REPUBLICAN-LEANING FIRMS ROUTE THOSE AVERAGES DOWN SAMPLES. CHRISTINA: I'M WONDERING WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT WHAT GOD VOTERS TO THE POLLS, THE THING THAT REALLY SURPRISED ME IN POLLING GOING INTO THE ELECTION AND VOTERS YOU TALKED TO, IT WAS THE STATE OF THE DEMOCRACY AND CORRUPTION WAS A WORD I HEARD OVER AND OVER AGAIN. SECOND ONLY TO THOSE KITCHEN TABLE ISSUES. YOU HAVE BEEN DOING THIS A LONG TIME. HAVE YOU EVER SEEN THAT RATE THIS HIGHLY ON A LIST OF PEOPLE'S CONCERNS? ASHLEY: NOT REALLY, AND A LOT OF THESE ISSUES WERE TOWARD THE BOTTOM. A LOT OF THE CULTURE WAR STUFF THAT TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS ARE TRYING TO BRING TO THE FOREFRONT -- IMMIGRATION SEEM TO BE A FACTOR, BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS IMPORTANT AS THE STATE OF DEMOCRACY. THE WAR IN IRAN BEING THE CRUCIAL VOTE. -- FACTOR FOR VOTERS. I HEARD CHUCK SCHUMER TALK ABOUT CHAOS, CORRUPTION, AND COST-OF-LIVING AND IT WAS THOSE LATTER TWO, THAT BROUGHT VOTERS OUT. THIS IS WHY THEY VOTED AND THOSE WHO SAID THESE PROBLEMS WERE OVERWHELMINGLY LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRAT. DAVID: LET'S LOOK AT DEMOGRAPHICS. I'M GOING TO PUT UP A SCREEN LOOKING AT THE ELECTION POLL BY RACE AND GENDER. LATINO MEN, 50% WENT FOR DEMOCRATS THIS TIME AROUND. LATINO WOMEN, 60%. TALK ABOUT HOW RADICAL THAT REVERSAL HAS BEEN. WE HAVE REPUBLICANS BANKING ON THE OPPOSITE HAPPENING AFTER WHAT HAPPENED IN 2024. ASHLEY: WE TALKED ABOUT THIS REALIGNMENT, THAT LATINOS ARE NOW WITH REPUBLICANS AND NOW WE HAVE A COMPLETE DE-ALIGNMENT. THAT SHOWS, MORE THAN ANYTHING, THEY ARE A KEY VOTING BLOC NOW. ESPECIALLY MEN WHO HAD GONE FOR TRUMP NOW WENT FOR DEMOCRATS IN THIS CYCLE. WE SEE MEN ARE A FEW POINTS OVERALL MORE LIKELY TO GO FOR DEMOCRATS IN THIS CYCLE. DID WAS ASTOUNDING. WILL THAT HOLD FOR 2028? WE DON'T KNOW. CHRISTINA: HOW LONG OF A RUNWAY DID DEMOCRATS HAVE ON THIS BEFORE PEOPLE START WANTING RESULTS? ASHLEY: I THINK THE HONEYMOON IS SHORT. WE SAW THAT WITH 2025 AS WELL. THEY NEED TO PROVE SOMETHING CONCRETE, ESPECIALLY AS CANDIDATES START ANNOUNCING, AND IT NEEDS TO BE ON AFFORDABILITY. TWO WEEKS IN A ROW. CHRISTINA: I WAS A LITTLE SAD YOU GUYS WERE HANGING OUT WITHOUT ME. DAVID: COMING UP, ONCE SEEN AS A VACATION FOR OLDER TRAVELERS, CRUISES, HAVING A YOUTH MOMENT. WHY MORE MILLENNIALS ARE TAKING TO THE SEAS. THAT IS COMING UP ON BLOOMBERG \"THIS WEEKEND.\" STAY WITH US. ♪ CHRISTINA: WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG \"THIS WEEKEND.\" I'M CHRISTINA RUFFINI, WITH DAVID GURA. MILLENNIALS USED TO MARK CRUISE SHIP PASSENGERS, NOW APPARENTLY THEY ARE GETTING ON BOARD. DAVID: VERSION AND ROYAL CARIBBEAN SAY HALF OF THEIR GUESTS ARE YOUNGER THAN 45. BRITTANY CHANG WROTE ABOUT THIS SHIFT AND JOINS US NOW. GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US. I WAS STRUCK BY A QUOTE IN YOUR PIECE. THIS IS A HANDOUT, YOUNG WOMAN. IF YOU WANT TO SEE DIFFERENT PLACES, YOU ARE ON A BUDGET, AND YOU WANT FUN THINGS TO DO, GO ON A CRUISE. HOW REPRESENTATIVE IS THAT OF YOUNG PEOPLE TODAY AND HOW THEY ARE, -- HOW ARE THEY COMING AROUND ON THIS? BRITTANY: I THINK YOU WOULD BE SURPRISED, DESPITE THE STEREOTYPE. IT IS QUITE COMMON FOR MILLENNIALS. A LOT OF IT IS THE ECONOMIC PRESSURES. YOU HEAR ABOUT RISING GASES, RISING AIRFARE. ULTIMATELY SOMETIMES CRUISES ARE MORE AFFORDABLE. YOU HAVE LODGING, FOOD, ENTERTAINMENT, THE OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THESE PLACES UNDER ONE FARE, AS OPPOSED TO -- TO PAYING FOR AIRFARE AND HOTEL SEPARATELY. IT SEEMS LIKE AN AFFORDABLE OPTION FOR TRAVELERS AND FRANKLY A LOT OF THESE NEW SHIPS HAVE SOME WILD AMENITIES. WE ARE TALKING ZIP LINES, WATER PARKS, THESE, YOU KNOW, GIANT ENTERTAINMENT OPTIONS. IT IS REALLY QUITE POPULAR WITH YOUNGER FOLKS ON TIKTOK COME ON INSTAGRAM. IT HAS REALLY PERMEATED. CHRISTINA: I'M A LONG TIME CRUISE-HATER, AND COMPLETELY UNJUSTIFIED. BRITTANY: UNDERSTAND THE BUDGET ASPECT OF IT, BUT I WONDER HOW MUCH OF IT IS MENTAL FATIGUE. I WILL SAY IT IS APPEALING TO JUST BUY ONE THING AND BE DONE WITH IT AND NO ONE NOT GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH TRANSFERS WITH HOTEL BOOKINGS, WHEN SOMETHING INEVITABILITY GOES LONG. -- GOES WRONG. IT IS LEGENDARY. DAVID: YOU ARE TERRIBLE AT MESSING IT UP? CHRISTINA: I HAVE NEVER MESSED UP A WORK TRIP, BUT WHEN IT IS MY PERSONAL TRAVEL I ALMOST ALWAYS SCREW IT UP. I'M NOT GOING TO DO THAT IF I GET ON A CRUISE SHIP. BRITTANY: YOU PROBABLY WON'T. THESE ARE ALL PLANNED FOR YOU. IT IS THE SHIP THAT IS PLANNING WHAT TIME YOU ARE GETTING INTO PORT, GETTING OUT OF PORT. THE ONLY WAY YOU WOULD MESS UP IS IF YOU DON'T MAKE IT BACK TO THE SHIP ON TIME, BUT FOR THE MOST PART -- DAVID: DON'T RULE IT OUT. BRITTANY: PARENTS TRAVELING WITH THEIR GRANDPARENTS AND CHILDREN, THE MULTIGENERATIONAL CRUISE. THIS MIGHT BE A GOOD OPTION FEAR. CHRISTINA: MENTAL FATIGUE. I DO GET THAT. I HAVE TRIP ANXIETY, SO THIS WOULD BE ONE AND DONE, I UNDERSTAND THAT. DAVID: HOW HAVE THESE CRUISE LINES CHANGED PRACTICES TO WELCOME THESE YOUNG TRAVELERS ON BOARD? ARE THEY DOING SPECIALTY CRUISES FOR MILLENNIALS? WHAT DO -- WHAT ARE THEY DOING TO CAPTURE THIS AUDIENCE? BRITTANY: THE WHOLE SHIP STRUCTURE ITSELF IS CHANGING. YOU SEE THESE SHIPS THAT CAN FIT UPWARDS OF 10,000 PEOPLE, INCLUDING CREW. THEY ARE OUTFITTED LIKE THEY ARE FLOATING AMUSEMENT PARKS. THERE ARE ROLLER COASTERS. NOT EVEN WATER SLIDES, WATER PARKS, THESE MINI GOLF STATIONS, AND AMENITIES FOR YOUNG CHILDREN, TEENAGERS, AND EVEN ADULTS WHO DON'T WANT TO BE AROUND CHILDREN. THE STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED TO ACCOMMODATE MULTI-GENERATIONS WITHIN ONE SHIP ALL OF THESE EXCITING AMENITIES. YOU KNOW, OPPORTUNITIES TO BAR HOP, THESE NICE WINE BARS. IT IS APPEALING TO A LOT OF THESE YOUNGER FOLKS. DAVID: YOU HAD ME UNTIL 10,000 PEOPLE. CHRISTINA: SHE HAD ME AT ESPRESSO MARTINIS. 10,000 PEOPLE IS GENERALLY WHY I HAVE AFFORDED THEM. YOU KNOW, HUMANS CHAPTER ON A BOAT AT SEA. I'M WORKING ON IT. IT HAS BEEN A BIG WEEK FOR WHAT THE INTERNET CALLS MILLENNIAL CRINGE, WITH GEN Z SAYING THEY UNDERSTAND IT AND BEING MORE FORGIVING OF MY GENERATION'S OPTIMISM. BUT YOU ARE SAYING CRUISE SHIPS ARE TAPPING INTO MILLENNIAL NOSTALGIA? HOW ARE THEY DOING THAT? BACKSTREET BOY CONCERTS OR OTHER THINGS? BRITTANY: I THINK WITH DISNEY CRUISE LINES SPECIFICALLY, WHEN YOU THINK OF DISNEY YOU THINK OF PARENTS AND YOUNG CHILDREN BUT I SPOKE TO A SOURCE A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHO SAID SHE WON ON A CRUISE WITH HER HUSBAND, NO CHILDREN, AND DID NOT SEE A SINGLE CRYING CHILD BECAUSE SHE MOSTLY STUCK IN THE ADULT-ONLY SPACES. THESE ARE LOUNGES DEEMED AFTER NOSTALGIC MOVIES MILLENNIALS WOULD ENJOY. THEATER PERFORMANCES ARE BASED OFF OF THE MOVIES OF THE MILLENNIAL GENERATION. THERE IS A LOT OF THAT NOSTALGIA BUILT IN TO DISNEY SPECIFICALLY. DAVID: I'M GOING TO WRAP UP WITH ME QUOTING FROM YOUR PIECE AGAIN. 2026 SAILINGS ARE EVEN CHEAPER THAN A STEAK DINNER. THAT IS WILD TO CONSIDER. HOW ARE THEY ABLE TO MAKE THIS SO INEXPENSIVE RELATIVE TO WHAT WE ARE ACCUSTOMED TO PAYING FOR IF YOU WANT TO TAKE A TRIP TO A BEACH SOMEWHERE ELSE? BRITTANY: A LOT OF THOSE SAILINGS ARE FOR THESE EXTENDED SAILINGS, SO WHEN YOU AVERAGE IT DOWN SOME OF THEM CAN BE AS LOW AS 30-SOMETHING DOLLARS A DAY AND A LOT OF THE TRAVELERS ALSO, IF YOU USE THE CASINO PROGRAM AND YOU STACK THE POINTS YOU ULTIMATELY GET THESE SAILINGS FOR FREE BESIDES PAYING FOR PORT AND FEE TAXES. IT ENDS UP BEING QUITE AFFORDABLE IF YOU KNOW HOW TO GAME IT, IF YOU KNOW HOW TO PLAN IN ADVANCE. IF YOU ARE A CRUISER IT REALLY IS -- $30 A DAY FOR A WEEK'S TRIP COULD BE CHEAPER THAN RENT AND PROBABLY IS FOR MOST PEOPLE. CHRISTINA: IN NEW YORK IT IS DEFINITELY CHEAPER THAN RENT. HAVE YOU BEEN ON A CRUISE? DO YOU LIKE THESE? DO YOU HAVE A FAVORITE? BRITTANY: YES, I DO IT FOR WORK AND I USED TO HATE IT. I WAS MUCH LIKE YOU, PROBABLY ONE OF THE BIGGER CRUISE. THE LONGER I HAVE DONE IT THE MORE I HAVE GROWN FOND OF IT. ESPECIALLY THESE LARGER SHIPS. THEY SAIL OUT FOR A WEEKEND AND THERE IS MORE AMENITIES YOU CAN DO IN A WEEKEND. I WILL SAY I AM NO LONGER A CRUISE HATER, BUT I AM QUITE PARTICULAR. SOME OF THESE MEGA-SHIPS OR MY PREFERENCE. SOME OF THE LUXURY SHIPS WHERE IT IS HARD TO HATE THAT. DAVID: BRITTANY CHANG, THANK YOU VERY MUCH. CHRISTINA: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR COMING ON. I COULD DEAL WITH THAT. A WEEKEND MIGHT BE A GOOD PLACE TO START, RIGHT? WE ARE COMING UP ON 9:00 A.M. ON NEW YORK. DAVID: NOT A REAL WEEKEND, BECAUSE YOU WILL BE HERE. CHRISTINA: PERENNIALLY. THE NEXT HOUR OF BLOOMBERG \"THIS WEEKEND\" STARTS NEXT. ♪ CHRISTINA: COMING UP, PRESIDENT TRUMP MAKES A CHANGE OF THE TOP. PRESIDENT TRUMP: STEPHEN GETS IT. HE WILL DO A GREAT JOB. GREAT MANAGER. STAFF. WHAT DEMOCRATIC LEADERS ARE SAYING. CHRISTINA: THE BLUE WAVE SETS OFF A SELLOFF. WHAT SKEPTICISM OF DATA CENTER EXPANSION MEANS FOR TECH STOCKS AND INFRASTRUCTURE. DAVID: IT IS C-SUITE SATURDAY WITH KEN CHENNAULT. >> YOU CAN'T CHANGE YOUR COMMITMENT BASED ON WHO IS IN OFFICE. DAVID: HE CALLS ON HIS FELLOW EXECUTIVES TO BE MORE COURAGEOUS AND TELLS US WHAT HE LOOKS FOR IN THE NEW HIRE. ♪ CHRISTINA: WELCOME BACK. LIVE FROM OUR WORLD HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK, I'M CHRISTINA RUFFINI. DAVID: I'M DAVID GURA ALONGSIDE LISA MATEO. THE BIG NEWS IS THE SHAKEUP AT THE WHITE HOUSE. THE PRESENT REPLACING HIS CHIEF OF STAFF SUSIE WILES. CHRISTINA: AFTER VIGOROUSLY DEFENDING HER TO THE PRESS. STEPHEN MILLER TAKING OVER. DAVID: INTERESTING TO THINK ABOUT THIS ROLE. WE HAVE CHRIS WHIPPLE WHO WROTE THE BOOK ON CHIEFS OF STAFF IN THE PAST. YOU THINK OF THESE INDIVIDUALS AS PARTISAN PEOPLE NECESSARILY. EFFECTIVE CHIEFS OF STAFF ARE MANAGING THE OPERATIONS, THE POLITICAL AND POLICY AGENDA. INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT SHAPE THIS TAKES HAVING STEPHEN MILLER, WHO ORCHESTRATED SO MUCH OF THE PRESIDENT'S DRACONIAN IMMIGRATION POLICY FOR 70 YEARS, AN ADVISER -- FOR SO MANY YEARS. CHRISTINA: AND IF HE CAN'T AND WILL ENGAGE WITH THE NEW DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS. WE WILL ENGAGE WITH A COLLEAGUE LISA MATEO WHO WILL CATCH UP THE HEADLINES. LISA: IT COMES JUST DAYS AFTER REPUBLICANS LOST CONTROL OF CONGRESS AND THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. STEPHEN MILLER IS A LONGTIME MEMBER OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S INNER CIRCLE AND WAS A KEY PART OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S IMMIGRATION POLICIES. SUSIE WILES WAS THE FIRST WOMAN TO SERVE IN THAT POST AND THE PRESIDENT TOLD REPORTERS HE JUST WANTED TO MAKE A CHANGE. PRES. TRUMP: SUSIE HAS DONE A GOOD JOB, GREAT JOB. I JUST WANTED TO -- STEPHEN HAS BEEN GREAT. WE HAVE TO MAKE MOVES. LISA: THE QUESTION IS WHO'S PART OF THE NECK SHAKEUP AT THE WHITE HOUSE. 60 MINUTES ASKED IF PETE HEGSETH WAS IN JEOPARDY OF LOSING HIS JOB. THE PRESIDENT SAID HE HAS CONFIDENCE IN THE SECRETARY OF WAR. PRES. TRUMP: WE HAVE 12 WARS. VENEZUELA -- TWO WARS. VENEZUELA AND TAKEN UP BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF OIL. WE WILL BE TAKING UP MANY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND WE GET ALONG WELL. YOU CAN CALL IT A TERRITORY OR WHATEVER YOU WANT. WE WON THE WAR IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. LISA: AXIOS REPORTING VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE HAS SPENT THE PAST TWO WEEKS INVOLVED IN DIRECT TALKS WITH IRAN. SOURCES SAY IS TO RESUME NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS. MARCO RUBIO WILL MAKE HIS FIRST INTERNATIONAL TRIP SINCE THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. THE STATE DEPARTMENT SAID HE WOULD LEAVE THIS WEEKEND TO ATTEND A GROUP OF SEVEN FOREIGN MINISTERS MEETINGS IN FRANCE FOLLOWING SPECULATION THAT RUBIO MIGHT CHOOSE TO LEAVE THE ADMINISTRATION EARLY. THAT IS SOMETHING HE AND HIS AIDES HAVE DENIED. AT LEAST ONE PERSON HAS BEEN KILLED AND SEVERAL INJURED AFTER RUSSIAN MISSILES STRUCK KYIV OVERNIGHT. IN A STATEMENT, THE STATE RUN OIL AND GAS COMPANY SAID AN ENERGY FACILITY IN CENTRAL UKRAINE WAS STRUCK THREE TIMES, DAMAGING EQUIPMENT AND CAUSING A FIRE. SOURCES TELL BLOOMBERG UKRAINE STRUCK AN OIL REFINERY IN SOUTHWESTERN RUSSIA. THIS COMES AS UKRAINE PREPARES FOR NEW TALKS NEXT WEEK WITH RUSSIA AND THE U.S. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY'S OPERATING INCOME EARNINGS FELL TO $12.7 BILLION IN THE THIRD QUARTER, A FIVE POINT 8% DECLINE FROM A YEAR EARLIER -- 5.8%. THE COMPANY SAID THEY CONTINUED TO BUY BACK ITS OWN SHARES, SPENDING ABOUT $9.6 BILLION AND THAT PERIOD, THE MOST THIS YEAR. DAVID: IT IS SUCH A WILD THING. NOT A HUGE LOSS OF SEVERAL BILLION DOLLARS FOR THEM BUT -- $377 BILLION. THANKS, LISA. CHRISTINA: PRESIDENT TRUMP'S PICTURE CHIEF OF STAFF MAY BE GIVING US A PREVIEW INTO HOW THE PRESIDENT WILL WORK OR NOT WORK WITH CAPITOL HILL IN THE NEXT TWO YEARS. AFTER HUGE NIGHT FOR DEMOCRATS ON TUESDAY. DAVID: HERE IS HOW CHUCK SCHUMER REACTED. \"DONALD TRUMP LEARNED NOTHING FROM HIS HISTORIC DEFEAT. STEPHEN MILLER IS THE ARCHITECT OF THE MOST BARBARIC, INHUMANE POLICIES OF THIS ADMINISTRATION.\" \"TRUMP COULD NOT HAVE MADE A WORSE CHOICE. DEMOCRATIC MAJORITIES WILL FIGHT HIM EVERY STEP OF THE WAY.\" SCHUMER WILL BE JOINED IN THE CHAMBER BY AT LEAST SEVEN DEMOCRATS FROM FLIP TO SEATS, PUTTING JAMES TALARICO IN TEXAS WHO WON THE STATE BY MORE THAN ONE MILLION VOTES. CHRISTINA: IN GEORGIA, A BIG PICKUP FOR DEMOCRATS AND THE HISTORIC WIN FOR THE GOVERNOR'S SEAT. WE ARE JOINED BY THE TEXAS GLOBAL CORRESPONDENT FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES AND BY TIA MITCHELL. I WANT TO TALK ABOUT SO MANY THINGS. KEISHA LANCE BOTTOMS IS NOW THE FIRST BLACK GOVERNOR IN THE COUNTRY -- BLACK WOMEN GOVERNOR THE COUNTRY. I SAW YOU WROTE AN ARTICLE THAT LAST TIME GEORGIA HAD A POLITICAL SHIFT THIS BIG SOME LAWMAKERS DECIDED TO SWITCH PARTIES RATHER THAN FIGHT THE TREND. HUH? WHAT? TIA: IN THE ARTICLE THAT WAS BACK WHEN WE HAD THESE CONSERVATIVE BLUE DOG DEMOCRATS. AS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY SHIFTED ON ISSUES LIKE CIVIL RIGHTS, BECAME MORE OF A BIG TENT BLACK REPRESENTATION INCREASED, A LOT OF CONSERVATIVE SOUTH OF PARTY NO LONGER REPRESENTED THEM. THEY SWITCHED TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. IT WAS CONVENIENT THAT THE REPUBLICAN WAS COMING INTO POWER. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE SAME DYNAMIC REALLY. REPUBLICANS ARE PRETTY CONSERVATIVE. IT IS ONE THING TO WANT TO BE IN POWER, BUT ANOTHER TO SWITCH TO A PARTY YOU DON'T AGREE WITH AND THAT IS WHAT WE HAVE HERE. NOW THE DEMOCRATS ARE IN CONTROL, FLIPPING THE GEORGIA HOUSE, ARE THERE AT LEAST SOME ISSUES WHERE THERE WILL BE REPUBLICANS NOT NECESSARILY SWITCHING PARTIES BUT WILLING TO VOTE WITH DEMOCRATS? DAVID: LAUREN, FT THIS ELECTION, WHAT IS IT LEAVE REPUBLICANS IN THE STATE AND HAVE THERE BEEN OVERTURES TO WORK WITH REPUBLICANS GOING FORWARD? HOW IS THAT SHAKING ON THE STATE OF TEXAS? PRES. TRUMP: I'M STILL ENCZ -- LAUREN: I'M STILL IN SHOCK. THE OVERTURES ARE DEFINITELY HAPPENING. EVERY DEMOCRAT WHO WON STATEWIDE HAS COME OUT AND SAID THEY WANT TO GOVERN IN A BIPARTISAN FASHION. THEY ARE STAYING AS FAR AWAY FROM ANYTHING THEY CAN BE ACCUSED OF BEING WOKE ON AS THEY CAN. THEY JUST TOOK BACK POWER IN TEXAS AFTER 30 YEARS OF NOT BEING IN THE MAJORITY. THEY DON'T WANT TO DO ANYTHING TO RANCOR THE VOTERS WHO VOTED THEM IN. THEY HAVE THE GOVERNOR, LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR, SPEAKER THE HOUSE A DEMOCRAT FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 1990'S. THE TEXAS SENATE IS STILL REPUBLICAN SO WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF OBSTRUCTIONIST TENDENCIES OVER THERE. THERE WILL BE JOCKEYING. THIS WAS A BIG MANDATE FOR DEMOCRATS BUT THERE IS THIS ONE INSTITUTION THAT REMAINS FIRMLY REPUBLICAN AND THEY WILL DO WHAT THEY CAN TO PROTECT SOME OF THE LAWS THEY PASSED ON THINGS LIKE ABORTION AND LGBTQ RIGHTS. DAVID: THAT ROLL CALL THAT LAUREN LISTED IS EXTRAORDINARY TO HEAR. CHRISTINA: I KNOW YOU HAVE COVERED POLITICS THEY'RE ALMOST AS LONG AS I HAVE KNOWN YOU. I THINK THE POSTMORTEM WAS HAPPENING IN REAL TIME. A LOT OF REPUBLICANS WERE SAYING UP TO THE RESULTS THAT THEY NEEDED TO FOCUS MORE ON HAVING BETTER CANDIDATES. I WILL LEAVE THAT WHERE IT IS. KEN PAXTON SEEMED LIKE THE EMBODIMENT OF THAT ISSUE. YOU HAVE BEEN COVERING KEN PAXTON FOR A LONG TIME. HOW DID HE GO FROM THIS POLITICAL SURVIVOR TO SUCH A LIABILITY FOR THE GOP? LAUREN: IN WRITING HIS POLITICAL OBITUARY I THINK A LOT OF THINGS CAME INTO PLAY. HE HAS SCANDALS GOING BACK 10 YEARS AND HE WAS REELECTED TIME AND AGAIN WITH THINGS LIKE INDICTMENTS AND IMPEACHMENT, AFFAIR ACCUSATIONS. THIS YEAR PAXTON WAS UP AGAINST SOMETHING HE HAS NEVER BEEN UP AGAINST, A VERY TALENTED, VERY CAREFUL DEMOCRAT RUNNING AGAINST HIM. HE ALSO WAS OPERATING IN THIS MIDTERM ELECTION ENVIRONMENT WHERE PEOPLE WERE UNHAPPY WITH THE PRESIDENT'S POLICIES. HE WAS IN LOCKSTEP WITH THE PRESIDENT. HE RAN A VERY PARTISAN CAMPAIGN. HIS DEMOCRAT OPPONENT JAMES TALARICO WROTE -- RAN A BIPARTISAN CAMPAIGN TRYING TO GET REPUBLICAN VOTES. IT FELT SURREAL AFTER COVERING HIM FOR 12 YEARS WHERE HE HAS BEEN SO FIRMLY IN POWER TO SEE THAT EBB AWAY QUICKLY OVER ONE NIGHT. DAVID: LET ME ASK ABOUT THE ROLE STACEY ABRAMS PLAYED IN THIS PARTICULAR ELECTION. SHE RAN FOR GOVERNOR IN 20 AND 2022 UNSUCCESSFULLY. -- 2018. HOW MUCH OF THE VICTORY THAT KEISHA LANCE BOTTOMS GOT ON TUESDAY NIGHT CAN YOU ATTRIBUTE TO THE WORK, THE PATH THAT STACEY ABRAMS PAVED? TIA: I WROTE AN ARTICLE ABOUT STACEY ABRAMS THAT PUBLISHED THE MORNING OF THE ELECTION DAY. IT TALKED ABOUT TWO FOLD. SHE WAS ACTUALLY VERY ACTIVE THIS CAMPAIGN SEASON BUT IN A QUIETER WAY. SHE FOCUSED ON LEGISLATIVE SEATS MOSTLY THAT DEMOCRATS WANTED TO FLIT FROM REPUBLICAN HANDS, NOT JUST IN GEORGIA BUT ACROSS THE COUNTRY. JUST ON THE GROUND HER ACTIVE WORK THIS CAMPAIGN PAID OFF. IN GEORGIA, YOU KNOW, THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT SHE HAS LAID THE FOUNDATION FOR YEARS. SHE TALKED ABOUT THE FACT THAT -- CHRISTINA: I THINK YOU FROZE FOR JUST A SECOND. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET YOU BACK IN A MINUTE. LAUREN, MONEY PLAYED SUCH A HUGE ROLE IN BOTH OF THESE RACES. ELON MUSK SPENT $225 MILLION IN TAXES ALONE. COMPANIES, TESLA AND PARTICULAR IN AUSTIN? HOW ARE THEY REEVALUATING HOW THEY OPERATE IN THE STATE? LAUREN: WE ARE WORKING ON A STORY ABOUT THIS NOW. $200 MILLION MIGHT BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF MONEY FOR SOMEONE LIKE ELON MUSK -- CHRISTINA: WE HAVE BEEN TALKING BILLIONS AND TRILLIONS ALL MORNING. I NEED PEOPLE TO STOP TELLING ME MILLIONS ARE SMALL AMOUNTS. LAUREN: THE MONEY INVESTMENT WAS MAYBE A SMALLER MATTER FOR MR. MUSK. THE BIGGER BET HE HAS PLAYED IS MOVING ALL OF HIS BUSINESSES TO TEXAS IN THE LAST FEW YEARS, NEARLY ALL OF THEM. BUILDING MASSIVE, YOU KNOW, BUILDING HIS EMPIRE, THE PHYSICAL EMPIRE. HE WAS BETTING ON REPUBLICANS BEING IN POWER TO DO THAT. HE HAS PASSED BILLS. HE SAID FRIENDS IN THE CAPITAL SINCE HE HAS DONE ALL OF THAT. NOW THOSE FRIENDS ARE ALL GONE. WE ARE WAITING TO SEE WHETHER HE MAKES A CHANGE IN WHAT HE DOES WITH THIS BUSINESS -- HIS BUSINESSES HERE. HE HAS THIS SPACEX LAUNCH SITE IN SOUTH TEXAS. THE TESLA FACTORY, A LITHIUM FACTORY. HE COULD POTENTIALLY CHOOSE TO RE-MOVE, CALIFORNIA, TEXAS, THEN A THIRD STATE TO REINCORPORATE HIS BUSINESSES IF HE THINKS THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IS ABOUT TO TURN. ABRAMS PLAYED, PEEPING THE WAY FOR KEISHA LANCE BOTTOMS. WE WERE TALKING ABOUT MONEY IN THE TEXAS CAMPAIGN. STACEY ABRAMS PLAYING A CRUCIAL ROLE IN FUNDRAISING AS WELL. TIA: SHE WAS FUNDRAISING AND CAMPAIGNING ACROSS THE NATION, FOCUSING ON REPUBLICANS' SEATS THAT DEMOCRATS HOPED TO FLIP AND STATE LEGISLATIVE BODIES. AGAIN, AS YOU MENTIONED, SHE IS CREDITED WITH LAYING THE GROUNDWORK WITH CONVINCING NOT JUST LOCAL GEORGIA DEMOCRATS BUT NATIONAL DEMOCRATS TO INVEST IN GEORGIA. SHE SAID DEMOGRAPHICS ARE CHANGING IN GEORGIA. IT CAN BE WINNABLE IF WE PUT THE RESOURCES IN THERE. SHE FOCUSED ON YOUNG VOTERS AND VOTERS OF COLOR. THE PLAYBOOK PAID OFF OR GEORGIA DEMOCRATS THIS YEAR. CHRISTINA: CAN SEEMS LIKE PEOPLE ARE SURPRISINGLY AWARE OF THAT. I WAS SHOCKED AT THE NUMBER OF STACEY ABRAMS'S TRIBUTE MEMES ON ELECTION NIGHT AS I WAS TRYING TO SLEEP. OSSOFF AND TALARICO IMPACTS. WHAT DID OSSOFF DO REALLY WELL OR DID NOT WORK THE WAY THEY WANTED TO? TIA: DEMOCRATS WOULD SAY JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING WORKED. HE DID TWO THINGS THAT ARE REALLY NOTABLE. HE ATTACKED TRUMP CONSTANTLY. HE PUT TRUMP ON THE BALLOT BUT HE CONSTANTLY CONNECTED IT BACK TO THE ECONOMIC ISSUES. HE WOULD SAY THE TRUMP WHITE HOUSE IS CORRUPT, HE'S FOCUSED ON THE WRONG THINGS, THEREFORE THE PRICE OF GAS IS NOT COMING DOWN. THEREFORE THE ECONOMY IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT SHOULD BE. I THINK THAT MESSAGE WAS REALLY EFFECTIVE. THE OTHER THING OSSOFF DID HIS REIGN AS A TICKET. EVEN WHEN HE WAS NOT SHARING THE STAGE WITH KEISHA LANCE BOTTOMS, HE WAS TALKING ABOUT HER, SAYING IT WAS IMPORTANT NOT JUST THAT HE GET ELECTED BUT ALL THE DEMOCRATS ON THE BALLOT GET ELECTED. HE RAN REALLY STRONG. HE TALKED ABOUT CANDIDATE QUALITY. HE HAD A WEAK CANDIDATE BUT IT HELPED DEMOCRATS ALL DOWN THE TICKET. DAVID: LAUREN, DAVID GOODMAN WAS ON THE SHOW TALKING ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF TEXAS IN REPUBLICAN POLITICS BROADLY. WE HAVE THE PRESIDENT HAVING HIS MIDTERM CONVENTION IN TEXAS A COUPLE OF MONTHS BACK. IT HAD BEEN ELEVATED IN STATURE IN THESE UNITED STATES. WHAT IS THE TAKE AWAY AS YOU PARSE TOGETHER WHAT HAPPENED HERE ON TUESDAY? I LOVE THAT, BY THE WAY. CHRISTINA: NO APOLOGIES. WE LOVE IT. DAVID: LAUREN'S CAT JOINS US ON THE AIR. WHAT IS IT ME NOT HAVING TEXAS AS THIS BULWARK OF THE PAST? LAUREN: THEY ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THAT OUT. THEY ARE IN SHOCK EVEN NOW. THEY DON'T HAVE A STRATEGY ON WHAT TO DO AT THE STATE LEVEL TO PULL IT BACK. I HAVE SEEN THE PRESIDENT DIG IN. YOU MENTIONED NEEDING -- NAMING STEPHEN MILLER AS CHIEF OF STAFF ANY DIGGING ON HIS POLICIES TO HOLD THE LINE ON WHAT HE HAS LEFT. WE HAVE SEEN SOME REPUBLICANS IN TEXAS SAY LET'S NOT MODERATE, LET'S NOT WORK WITH DEMOCRATS. LET'S STICK WITH THESE EXTREME POSITIONS WE TOOK ON ABORTION, IMMIGRATION, GAY RIGHTS. IN TWO YEARS WE WILL JUST HAVE TO FIGHT TO GET OUR JOBS BACK. WHETHER THAT ENDS UP BEING THE MAJORITY OF REPUBLICANS IS ANOTHER THING. THEY ACTUALLY DO WANT TO DO POLICYMAKING IN THE CAPITOL. BOTH PARTIES HAVE TO WORK WITH EACH OTHER BECAUSE IT IS A SPLIT LEGISLATURE. EVERYONE IS KUMBAYA RIGHT NOW BUT THE CRACKS ARE GOING TO SHOW QUICKLY. CHRISTINA: WE ONLY HAVE 30 SECONDS LEFT BUT WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR THE NUMBERS TO COMMENT AS WE ARE TALKING TO A POSTER. WHO VOTED THIS TIME? DID REPUBLICANS STAY HOME OR WAS THEIR TURN UP FROM A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO HAD NOT GONE TO THE POLLS BEFORE? TIA: A LITTLE BIT ABOUT. CHRISTINA: SORRY, THE QUESTION WAS HURT TIA BUT EVERYONE CAN ANSWER IT. TIA: WE AGREE. CHRISTINA: WE GOT AGREEMENT BETWEEN STATES. WAS THERE ANYBODY THAT SURPRISED YOU CAN WHO TURNED OUT TO THE POLLS? TIA: I WOULD SAY THAT THERE IS INDICATION WITH THE OSSOFF RACE THERE ARE VOTERS THAT VOTED FOR OSSOFF BUT FOR THE GOVERNOR'S RACE VOTED FOR REPUBLICANS. THERE WAS SOME CROSSOVER WHICH IS INTERESTING. CHRISTINA: THANK YOU BOTH SO MUCH. I FLIPPED THOSE BUT YOU GUYS CAN FIGURE IT OUT. DAVID: AND THE CAT THAT JOINED AS WELL. CHRISTINA: I HAVE TO GET THE CAT'S NAME. DAVID: KEN CHENNAULT, FORMER CEO OF AMERICAN EXPRESS, SHARES HIS THOUGHTS ON THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY AND LEADERSHIP, STRAIGHT AHEAD ON \"BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND.\" ♪ CHRISTINA: WELCOME BACK. IT IS TIME FOR C-SUITE SATURDAY. WE ARE SPEAKING WITH KEN CHENNAULT. DAVID: FORMER AMERICAN EXPRESS CEO WHO HAS A NEW BOOK OUT THIS WEEK CALLED \"EQUAL TO THE TASK.\" HE TALKS ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF PURPOSE-DRIVEN LEADERSHIP THAT STARTS AT THE TOP. THAT IS WHERE WE BEGAN OUR CONVERSATION. HOW WOULD YOU CHANGE THE SHAPE OR DIRECTION OF COMPANY THAT'S BEEN AROUND FOR A LONG TIME TO BE INNOVATIVE? KEN: A CEO HAS SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE, BUT WHAT'S IMPORTANT IS THAT YOU HAVE TO GALVANIZE YOUR TEAM. YOU HAVE TO GALVANIZE THE ORGANIZATION. YOU HAVE TO GIVE THEM CONTEXT ON WHY INNOVATION IS SO IMPORTANT. PART OF WHAT I DID AT AMERICAN EXPRESS WAS EMPHASIZE THAT HISTORY OF THE COMPANY. WHAT IS THE CORE BUSINESS WE ARE IN? IT IS NOT THE PAYMENTS BUSINESS. IT IS THE SERVICE BUSINESS. THAT IS THE BUSINESS WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE 1850. WE HAVE TO KEEP THAT CORE, BUT LOOK AT THE HISTORY OF THE COMPANY GOING FROM A FREIGHT FORWARDING COMPANY TO A PAYMENTS COMPANY. THAT WAS NOT A LINEAR MOVE. THE FOCUS ON REINVENTION WAS SOMETHING I EMPHASIZED. DAVID: I WANT TO ASK ABOUT HIRING. THERE ARE MOMENTS WHERE MAYBE YOUR GRADES WERE NOT AS GOOD AS YOUR PEERS BUT SOMEBODY SAW SOMETHING IN YOU. YOU WENT TO BOWDOIN COLLEGE. THE ADMISSIONS OFFICER SPOTTED SOMETHING IN YOU. BANK CONSULTING, SAME THING. YOU ARE HIRED BY THE FOUNDER OF THE FIRM. HOW DO YOU LOOK AT PROSPECTIVE CANDIDATES? KEN: AT THE END OF THE DAY, I THINK YOU NEED TO HAVE A VERY BROAD AND NUANCED DEFINITION OF MERIT. SIMPLY LOOKING AT ONLY TWO FACTORS IS NOT GOING TO BE ENOUGH. HERE IS WHAT I LOOK FOR. ONE IS I WANT TO SEE IF THE PERSON HAS INTELLECTUAL CURIOSITY. THAT TELLS ME THAT THEY CAN REALLY GET ENGAGED AND THEY CAN GET PASSIONATE ABOUT IDEAS. THE SECOND IS, I WANT TO HAVE SOMEONE WHO REALLY DOES UNDERSTAND THEIR CORE VALUES. I ASK PEOPLE, TELL ME WHAT YOUR CORE VALUES ARE. 50% START TELLING ME LET ME TELL YOU WHAT I DID. THAT'S NOT MY QUESTION. I WILL GET TO THAT. WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE IN? TO BE A GOOD AND ENDEARING LEADER YOU HAVE TO HAVE CORE VALUES. YOU HAVE TO HAVE REAL BELIEFS. THE THIRD THING A LOOK FOR IS, IS THAT PERSON A REALLY HARD WORKER? AT THE END OF THE DAY YOU NEED TO HAVE SOMEONE WHO WILL PUT THEIR FULL BEING INTO THE JOB AND IS FOCUSED ON OUTCOMES. THEN I LOOK FOR SOMEONE WHO CAN BE CARING. YOU MIGHT FIND THAT STRANGE FOR A BUSINESS EXECUTIVE TO SAY THAT BUT I THINK THE BEST LEADERS CAPTURE THE MINDS AND THE HEARTS OF PEOPLE. I WANT SOMEONE WHO IN FACT CAN DO THAT. I OBVIOUSLY WANT PEOPLE WHO ARE INTELLIGENT, STRATEGIC, ALL THOSE SKILLS BUT THE LAST QUALITY I REALLY TRY TO EXAMINE FOR TOP LEADERS IN THE ORGANIZATION IS DO THEY HAVE COURAGE. I THINK THAT OPERATING IN BUSINESS YOU NEED TO HAVE COURAGE. DAVID: THIS IS A MEDITATION ON YOUR OWN IDENTITY. YOU SAY YOU ARE A PROUD BLACK MEN BUT MANY OTHER THINGS. WE HAVE SPOKEN ABOUT THIS REGRETTABLY SMALL FRATERNITY OF BLACK EXECUTIVES IN AMERICA. WHEN WE LAST SPOKE A FEW YEARS AGO, YOU WISHED THAT FRATERNITY WOULD GROW IN SIZE. IT REALLY HASN'T. I'M CURIOUS WHY YOU THINK THAT IS THE CASE AND WHAT MORE CAN BE DONE TO FOSTER GROWTH IN THE EXECUTIVE RANKS OF COMPANIES IN THE U.S. AND AROUND THE WORLD OF MINORITY EXECUTIVES. KEN: ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT IS A RECOGNITION THAT RACE IS STILL AN ISSUE IN AMERICA. I HAVE BEEN VERY DISHEARTENED BY THE SLOWDOWN IN PEOPLE'S COMMITMENT TO DIVERSITY, WHICH I TALK ABOUT IN THE BOOK. I THINK THAT IT IS HARD TO DENY WHAT HAS HAPPENED HISTORICALLY BUT ALSO VERY IMPORTANTLY IS I THINK DIVERSITY HAS BEEN MISREPRESENTED. AS I HAVE BEEN VERY CLEAR PUBLICLY, I DON'T AGREE WITH EVERYTHING DONE UNDER THE BANNER OF D.E.I., BUT DIVERSITY IS REALLY WHAT THIS COUNTRY IS ALL ABOUT. NO ONE -- NO ONE RAISES ISSUES WHEN SOMEONE SAYS I THINK WE HAVE TOO MANY INTERNAL PEOPLE IN THE COMPANY. WE NEED TO GET SOME EXTERNAL PEOPLE IN HERE. DOES SOMEONE SAY, WAIT A MINUTE, WE WILL LOWER OUR STANDARDS? NO ONE SAYS THAT. PEOPLE SAY WE SHOULD ACTUALLY HAVE DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES. I THINK WHAT IT TAKES IS IT TAKES COMMITMENT. BUT IF PEOPLE ARE GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY, I THINK PEOPLE WILL EXCEL. THIS IS NOT HARD BUT IT REQUIRES STEADFAST COMMITMENT AND YOU CAN'T CHANGE YOUR COMMITMENT BASED ON WHO IS IN OFFICE. PEOPLE HAVE SAID TO ME I'VE REALLY SUPPORTIVE OF DIVERSITY BUT I HAVE TO BE QUIET NOW. THAT TO ME IS -- YOU DON'T EXERCISE YOUR PRINCIPLES IN SECRET. CAPITAL COMPANY. A NONLINEAR MOVE IN SURPRISED IF YOU FOLKS. IT IS NOW AT AN AMAZING MOMENT. ANTHROPIC IS POISED TO GO PUBLIC, THE LARGEST INVESTMENT GENERAL CATALYST HAS MADE. HOW ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT THIS MOMENT FOR YOU AND FOR THE FIRM? KEN: MY VIEW WAS THAT VENTURE -- THE VENTURE INDUSTRY HAS NOT INNOVATED ON THEIR OWN MODEL. THEY TELL FOUNDERS YOU HAVE TO INNOVATE BUT THE VENTURE MODEL IS BASICALLY THE SAME. WE STARTED TALKING ABOUT WHAT IS BEYOND VENTURE AND HOW COULD WE TACKLE SOME OF THE WORLD'S BIGGEST CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES. WHAT WE SAID WAS WE OBVIOUSLY WANT TO GENERATE REALLY GOOD INVESTMENT RETURNS, BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A CONFLICT BETWEEN PROFIT AND PURPOSE. THAT IS ONE WE HAD FULL ALIGNMENT ON. WE HAD FULL ALIGNMENT ON THE MISSION THAT WE ARE GOING TO INVEST IN POWERFUL POSITIVE CHANGE THAT ENDURES. THAT WAS REALLY IMPORTANT. I THINK GENERAL CATALYST, WHICH WAS A TERRIFIC FIRM AND HAD A REALLY STRONG CULTURE, WHAT IT NEEDED TO DO WAS TO INSTITUTIONALIZE THOSE VALUES AND THE CULTURE AS WE WERE SCALING. I'M VERY PROUD, FOR EXAMPLE, OF OUR POSITION ON RESPONSIBLE AI. WHICH WE CAME UP WITHIN 2023. WE SET UP A FRAMEWORK. THAT FRAMEWORK HAS THREE REPORTS. ONE THAT WAS VERY IMPORTANT IS THAT YOU NEED TO BUILD SAFETY INTO THE ARCHITECTURE. SECOND, YOU NEED TO HAVE AN EXPERIENCED AND KNOWLEDGEABLE HUMAN DEALING WITH KEY ISSUES. YOU CAN'T BELIEVE THAT TO JUST THE MODELS. I THINK WHAT WAS ALSO IMPORTANT IS THAT WE HAVE GOT TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE COMPANIES TAKE A RESPONSIBILITY. YOU CAN'T JUST PUT SOMETHING OUT THERE AND SAY SAFETY HAS TO BE SACRIFICED BECAUSE OF SPEED. WE IN FACT SAID YOU HAVE GOT TO FOCUS ON BOTH SPEED AND SAFETY AND YOU CAN'T TRADE OFF SAFETY. DAVID: HOW MUCH OF AN OUTLIER ARE YOU CALLING FOR THIS SOCIETAL RESPONSE ABILITY AMONG CORPORATE EXECUTIVES WHEN IT SEEMS LIKE FULL STEAM AHEAD, GREAT GUNS TRYING TO MAKE A LOT OF TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS? KEN: I THINK WE ARE A FEW YEARS AGO -- WE I THINK WE ARE -- A FEW YEARS AGO WE ARE MORE OF AN OUTLIER. YOU CAN SEE THE FRAMEWORK I ARTICULATED BEING TALKED ABOUT. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE EXECUTIVES FOCUSED ON THIS, BECAUSE WE NEED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND I THINK IT IS CRITICAL THAT AI WORKS WHEN WE GIVE AGENCY BACK TO PEOPLE. AND AI WORKS WHEN WE MAKE THEIR LIFE BETTER. ONE OF THE OBJECTIVES FOR ME FOR AI FOR HUMANS IS THE COST OF LIVING GOING TO BE REDUCED AS A RESULT OF AI. THAT TO ME SHOULD BE ONE OF THE OBJECTIVES. I THINK ONE OF THE ISSUES FUNDAMENTALLY IS AN ARTICULATION OF THE MISSION OF AI FOR HUMANS. I BELIEVE WHETHER IT IS BUSINESS OR POLITICS, THE ENDURING PROGRESS IS MADE WHEN YOU ARE SETTING A MISSION THAT IS MEANINGFUL TO PEOPLE. I THINK WHAT WE HAVE TO DO, BACK TO BUSINESS EXIST BECAUSE SOCIETY ALLOWS IT TO EXIST, IS WE HAVE TO ALIGN AGAINST THE MISSION OF AI FOR HUMANS. DAVID: I ASKED ABOUT THIS MOMENT FOR GENERAL CATALYST AND FOR AI AND BUSINESS. THERE'S A LINE IN THE BOOK I MADE A NOTE TO ASK YOU ABOUT. \"I CAN'T RECALL A MOMENT THAT IS CALLED FOR GREATER COURAGE THEN TODAY.\" WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT? KEN: WHAT I MEAN IS WE SEE A RISE OF AUTHORITARIANISM ACROSS THE WORLD. THAT IS A CONCERN. WE ARE CONFRONTED -- LET ME BE CLEAR. I AM PRO-TECHNOLOGY. I AM PRO-AI. AT THE SAME TIME I BELIEVE WE HAVE A REALLY DEEP, DEEP RESPONSIBILITY. THIS IS A TIME WHERE I THINK PEOPLE HAVE TO TAKE A STAND. LET ME BE CLEAR. HISTORY MAJOR. YOU DON'T NEED THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE TO STAND UP, BUT YOU NEED A FEW. YOU NEED A FEW PEOPLE WHO HAVE INFLUENCE TO SAY THIS IS NOT RIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WE BELIEVE. THIS IS WHAT WE THINK SHOULD BE DONE. WE NEED THOSE VOICES IN POLITICS. WE NEED THE VOICES IN BUSINESS. WE NEED THOSE VOICES IN THE ARTS, CULTURE AND MEDIA. I'M NOT CALLING FOR THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE TO STAND UP, BECAUSE THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED IN HISTORY. WHAT WE NEED IS WE NEED A FEW PEOPLE ACROSS A RANGE OF FIELDS TO IN FACT STAND UP FOR WHAT THEY BELIEVE. DAVID: AN INCREDIBLE STORY. CHRISTINA: HE IS SUCH AN ICONIC FIGURE. I HAVE KNOWN WHO HE WAS FOREVER. DAVID: INTERESTING TO CHART HIS TRANSITION FROM LAW SCHOOL TO BUSINESS TO MAKE A BIGGER DIFFERENCE DOING THAT. CHRISTINA: I LIKE THAT. COMING UP, THE METROPOLITAN OPERA HAS SEEN THE WORLD FAMOUS COMPOSERS FROM YOUR MUSIC THERE FOR 150 YEARS. WE WILL SPEAK WITH THE LATEST --THE FIRST WOMAN. MISSY MAZZOLI JOINS US NEXT. ♪ ♪THANK YOU FOR JOINING US LIVE ON BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND LISA: I AM LISA MATEO, LET'S UPDATE YOU ON TODAY'S TOP STORIES. LISA: THE NEW YORK TIMES THIS UNTIL IT'S HAVE INFORMED THE TRUMPET ADMINISTRATION THAT SHE WAS RECRUITED TO COLLECT INFORMATION ABOUT HIM. ALICE WONG IS AN EXECUTIVE WITH DIVISIVE POLITICAL BATTLES IN CALIFORNIA. DDHQ PROTECTS VOTERS WILL REJECT THE FIRST OF ITS KIND TAX ON BILLIONAIRES WITH 46% OF VOTERS BACKING THE MEASURE AND 54% OPPOSED. PROPOSITION 40 WHO WOULD HAVE IMPOSED A ONE-TIME 5% TAX ON THE WEALTH OF BILLIONAIRES WHO ARE CALIFORNIA RESIDENTS AT THE START OF 2026. MOST OF THE PROCEEDS WOULD BE FOR SHORING UP HEALTH CARE. POPE LEO KICKED OFF HIS SOUTH AMERICAN TOUR JUST THREE WEEKS AFTER HIS CANCER SURGERY. THE PONTIFF IS PROVIDING OVER MASS AND URUGUAY RIGHT NOW. HE DREW ABOUT 30,000 PEOPLE THERE. HE WILL LATER MEET WITH THE PRESIDENT OF THE COUNTRY AFTER YOUR GREAT -- HAVE PRESIDENT OF THE COUNTRY. ZOO ATLANTA'S NEWEST PANDAS MADE THEIR DEBUT YESTERDAY. VISITORS LINED UP AND WELCOMED THEM. YOU HAVE SIX-YEAR-OLD PING PING AND A FEMALE. THEY ARRIVED IN SEPTEMBER UNDER A 10-YEAR LOAN AGREEMENT AFTER A TWO-YOUR ABSENCE. ZOO ATLANTA IS HOME TO THE POPULAR ERRORS. ARE THEY THE QS THING, CHRISTINA? -- CUTEST THING, CHRISTINA? CHRISTINA: THANK YOU FOR THAT EXCELLENT REPORT. WE APPRECIATE THAT LAST SEGMENT. MOVING ON, WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE MET. PUCCINI HAS SEVERAL WORLD PREMIERES AT THE METROPOLITAN OPERA IN NEW YORK. WAGNER, STRAUSS, MOZART. FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE IT OPENED IN THE LATE 1800S, A WOMAN HAS BROKEN THAT PARTICULAR SOUND BARRIER. TAKE A LISTEN. ♪ [OPERA SINGING] DAVID: NOW PREMIERING AT THE MET, AND JOINING US IS THE TALENTED COMPOSER, MISSY MAZZOLI . CONGRATULATIONS. THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE. WE LOOKED AT TICKETS MOMENTS AGO AND THEY ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO GET. MISSY: PRACTICALLY SOLD OUT, WHICH IS AMAZING. DAVID: EXPLAINED THE PROCESS OF HOW MUCH WORK WENT INTO THIS BASED ON GEORGE SANDERS' BOOK. MISSY: OPERA TAKES FOREVER. I WAS COMMISSIONED IN 2018 FROM THE MET. THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO VENEER AND 2024. COVID HAPPENED AND IT WAS A LITTLE DELAYED BUT I STARTED WRITING THE MUSIC IN 2021. IT'S BEEN FIVE YEARS OF WRITING THE MUSIC. IT TAKES A LONG TIME. A LOT OF MOVING PARTS. CHRISTINA: HOW DID YOU GET INTO THIS? YOU HAVE AN ECLECTIC TASTE IN MUSIC AND YOU LIKE PUNK ANOTHER -- PUNK AND OPERA MAY SEEM DIFFERENT BUT THEY ACTUALLY SHARE SOME COMMONALITIES. TALKED ABOUT HOW YOU GOT INTO THIS. MISSY: I GREW UP IN THE SUBURBS OF PHILADELPHIA IN THE 1980'S AND 1990'S ADDICTED TO MTV. IT WAS MY PORTAL TO MUSIC, CULTURE, REBELLION. I BROUGHT THAT SPIRIT TO THE OPERA. OPERA IS AN ART FORM THAT WEARS HIS HEART ON ITS LEAVE. AIKINS WEARS POLITICS ON HIS SLEEVE. EVERYTHING IS UP THERE TAKEN TO AN EXTREME AND SO IS PUNK. CHRISTINA: KIND OF THE OG EMO MUSIC. DAVID: TALK ABOUT YOUR EXPERIENCE WITH THE MET AND HOW IT SHAPED YOUR ACHIEVEMENT AND SEEING THIS ON STAGE IN NEW YORK. MISSY: THE FIRST TIME I WENT TO THE MET WAS THE FIRST TIME I SAW AN OPERA WHEN I WAS 18. \"VOTSEK\" IN 1999. I SAT IN THE LAST SEAT OF THE LAST ROW. I WENT OUT THERE TO CHECK OUT THAT SEAT AND REMEMBER WHAT THAT FELT LIKE. CHRISTINA: PRETTY COOL. MISSY: I LOVED IT, EVEN FROM THAT FAR AWAY. IT WAS A STUNNING, IMMERSIVE EXTREMES AND I THOUGHT ONE DAY I'M GOING TO DO THIS. I DID NOT THINK HE WAS GOING TO BE FOR THE MET. CHRISTINA: ADAPTATIONS ARE DIFFICULT AND THIS IS A WEIGHTY TOME, A SERIOUS SUBJECT AND WRITING THE OPERA TAKES FOREVER. HOW DID YOU APPROACH THIS? WHAT WAS THE HARDEST PART OF GETTING THIS DONE? MISSY: IF YOU HAVE READ THE BOOK, THERE ARE 166 CHARACTERS. IT IS A BELOVED BOOK. PEOPLE LOVE GEORGE SAUNDERS. CHRISTINA: TELL US WHAT IT'S ABOUT. MISSY: IT TAKES PLACE IN A SINGLE NIGHT IN 1862. THE NOVEL IS BASED ON A KERNEL OF HISTORICAL TRUTH. AFTER ABRAHAM LINCOLN'S 11-YEAR-OLD SON DIED SUDDENLY AFTER A QUICK ILLNESS IN 1862 AT THE HEIGHT OF THE CIVIL WAR, LINCOLN WAS SO DISTRAUGHT THAT HE WOULD GO VISIT HIS SONS BODY IN THE CEMETERY IN D.C. GEORGE SAUNDERS FOUND THIS OUT AND BUILT THIS WHOLE WORLD AROUND IT POPULATED BY THE GHOSTS OF THE CEMETERY. THE ONLY LIVING PERSON IN THE OPERA IS ABRAHAM LINCOLN. EVERYONE ELSE IS DEAD AND EVERYONE ELSE IS A GHOST WHO IS TRYING TO GET THE GHOST OF WILLIE LINCOLN TO MOVE ON TO THE NEXT PLACE. YEAH. CHRISTINA: A LOT OF VOICES TO CAPTURE. MISSY: A LOT OF BIG DECISIONS ABOUT WHAT -- WHOSE ROLE DO WE AMPLIFY, WHOSE ROLE DO WE CUT OUT. GEORGE WAS A PART OF IT FOR THAT PROCESS WHICH WAS AMAZING. DAVID: TALK ABOUT YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH YOUR PARTNER. YOU ARE AMONG THE FINEST PARTNERSHIPS AND OPERA TODAY. TALK ABOUT THE PARTNERSHIP AND WHY IT WORKS SO WELL FOR THE TWO OF YOU. MISSY: WE HAVE BEEN WORKING TOGETHER SINCE 2009. WE MET IN THE LOBBY OF CARNEGIE HALL RANDOMLY. A WEEK LATER I SAID I THINK WE SHOULD WRITE AN OFFER TOGETHER, WHICH LOOKING BACK IS CRAZY. WE ARE ALSO BEST FRIENDS. WE GO ON VACATION TOGETHER. CHRISTINA: EVEN AFTER THIS PROCESS? MISSY: IT'S A MIRACLE. IT'S OUR FLEXIBILITY. YOU CAN'T BE PRECIOUS ABOUT ANYONE ELEMENT. GOT TO GO. IF THERE IS A LINE OF TEXT THAT ROYCE IS ATTACHED TO BUT SLOWING THINGS DOWN, IT IS GOT TO GO. WE ARE WILLING TO DO THAT. WE TRUST EACH OTHER. CHRISTINA: WE WANT TO PLAY SOME SOUND FROM THE MAYOR OF NEW YORK TRYING TO MAKE OPERA A LITTLE MORE ACCESSIBLE. >> THERE ARE WORLD-CLASS SENIORS AT THE METROPOLITAN OPERA. 70,000 NEW YORKERS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE IT FOR FREE. 70,000 TICKETS. YOU WILL SEE SHOWS LIKE MACBETH, LINCOLN AND THE BARDO AND MANY MORE. CHRISTINA: THAT IS RIGHT UP THERE WITH IT. OPERA IS SEEN AS HIGH CULTURE. IT IS SOMETHING PEOPLE ARE AFRAID TO GO TO. I WONDER IF YOU THINK MODERNIZING NEWER NOVELS, HAVING A WOMAN READY OPERA MAKES IT MORE INTERESTING AND MORE ACCESSIBLE AND IF YOU THINK MORE PEOPLE SHOULD GIVE IT A CHANCE. MISSY: I THINK MORE PEOPLE SHOULD GIVE IT A CHANCE. I CAME TO MUSIC AND OPERA THROUGH MTV. I REMEMBER WATCHING MUSIC VIDEOS AND BECOMING OBSESSED AND THINKING THIS IS THE ULTIMATE EXPRESSION OF MUSIC. OPERA IS LIKE AN AMPLIFIED MUSIC VIDEO BEEN AWAY THAT INVOLVES ALL THE ELEMENTS. I THINK OPERA IS INCREDIBLY MODERN AND VERY IMMERSIVE. IT HAS ALL THE ELEMENTS. BEAUTIFUL COSTUMES, AMAZING SETS, AND INCREDIBLE ORCHESTRA AT THE MET. THERE IS A LOT OF WAYS INTO OPERA. WE ARE TELLING THE STORIES ABOUT THE WORLD THAT WE LIVE IN. I MAKE OPERA TO BRING UPON CONVERSATIONS ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON IN OUR WORLD AND POLITICS AND EVERYTHING. DAVID: YOU ARE AT BARD COLLEGE. WHAT DO YOU TELL THEM ABOUT WHAT THE PATH IS LIKE? YOU STARTED IN A GENRE OUTSIDE OF OPERA BUT WHAT IS THE PATH LOOK LIKE FOR A YOUNG PERSON TODAY? MISSY: START SMALL AND MAKE THE MUSIC THAT ONLY YOU CAN MAKE. EVERY ONE OF MY STUDENTS, EVERYONE IN THE WORLD HAS A CERTAIN MUSIC THAT ONLY THEY CAN LIKE SOMEONE ELSE, IT'S ABOUT SOUNDING LIKE YOURSELF. CHRISTINA: WHAT IS IT GOOD -- OTHER THAN YEARS -- IF YOU CAN GET TICKETS FOR GATEWAY OPERA? MINE WAS FOUR HOURS OF WAGNER. MISSY: WAGNER IS LONG. LA BOHEME ALWAYS WORKS AND IT'S ONE OF MY FAVORITE OPERAS. IT'S ONE OF HIS POPULAR FOR A REASON. CHRISTINA: YOU ARE LITERALLY HEADING TO THE SHOW AFTER THIS WHICH IS WHY FOR OUR TV AUDIENC AND SH IS -- SHE HAS OUTDRESSED ALL OF US. DAVID: COMING UP THE POINTED NEWS QUIZ MAKES A RETURN. I HAVE BEEN ON VACATION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE ELECTION. I'M NOT WELL READ IN. CHRISTINA: NOT ELECTIONS OR MARKETS. HOPEFULLY LISA WILL HAVE INTERESTING QUESTIONS I WILL TRY TO BEAT DAVID AT. DAVID: STAY WITH US ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND BLOOMBERG RADIO. ♪ DAVID: IF YOU WATCHED THE SHOW LAST WEEK, IT WAS A DIFFERENT SORT OF GAME. LISA PINCHHITTING FOR CHRISTINA. LISA: IT WAS A TIE. DAVID: THE BONUS ROUND SAVED HER IN THE END. IT SAVED YOU BY PROXY BECAUSE SHE WAS PLAYING FOR YOU. CHRISTINA: DID I GET THIS POINT IN MY COLUMN? DAVID: NATHAN HAGER DOING THE WORK FILLING IN FOR CHRISTINA. GLAD TO HAVE YOU BACK IN THE EVEN PLAYING FIELD ONCE AGAIN. IT USUALLY GOES IN YOUR FAVOR. LISA: YOU HAVE YOUR CHIPS. 30 CHIPS IN FRONT OF YOU. JUST IN CASE YOU FORGOT. SHE WENT RIGHT FOR IT. CHRISTINA: CREATURE OF HABIT. LISA: IF YOU'RE PLAYING ALONG, I WILL SAY THREE CATEGORIES AND YOU PLACE YOUR BETS AFTER I SEE THE CATEGORIES. WE'LL TAKE IT FROM THERE. YOU WRITE ON THE WHITEBOARDS AND WE WILL SEE WHO GETS THE MOST POINTS TODAY. DAVID: YOU SHOULD SAY THE CATEGORIES FIRST. . LISA: U.S.. YOU GUYS SHOULD BE GOOD AT THIS. PHARMACIES AND IPOS. WHERE WOULD YOU LIKE TO PLACE -- YOU ARE DOUBLING UP? WHAT ARE YOU DOING? DAVID: PHARMACIES. CHRISTINA: I WILL GO BACK TO THE SPLIT. DAVID: SO BORING. CHRISTINA: I'M NOT LETTING YOU BULLY ME BECAUSE THE LAST TIME I LOST. LISA: YOU HAVE A STRATEGY. WHAT YEAR -- SORRY. IT'S OK. WHAT YEAR DID GEORGE MCGILL BECOME THE FIRST DEMOCRATIC SENATOR ELECTED IN KANSAS? WHY ARE YOU WRITING LIKE YOU KNOW THIS? CHRISTINA: I WILL GIVE YOU FIVE YEARS. 10. DAVID: 1932. CHRISTINA: I SAID 1930-ISH. LISA: YOU BOTH GET IT. DAVID: BALONEY. I GOT THE RIGHT ANSWER. CHRISTINA: 1930 IS FINE. LISA: 1932, DAVID GURA. I TOLD YOU IF YOU ARE WITHIN 10, I WOULD GIVE IT FOR YOU -- GIVE IT TO YOU. CHRISTINA: IT WAS YOUR IDEA. LISA: ADAM HAMILTON. DAVID: SENATOR ELECT. CHRISTINA: IT WAS AN INTERESTING NIGHT. LISA: DAVID IS DOUBLING UP ON THIS ONE. CHRISTINA: THIS IS WHAT I THINK IT IS. . LISA: WHICH COMPANY IS THE BIGGEST EVER BREAKUPS IN THE HISTORY OF THE HEALTH CARE INDUSTRY BY SPINNING OFF ITS RETAIL PHARMACY BUSINESS? CHRISTINA: THAT STORY WAS HARD TO AVOID THIS WEEK. LISA: VCVS, YOU ARE RIGHT. SPINNING OFF TO CVS PHARMACY. DAVID: THIS WAS A BIG STORY A FEW YEARS BACK AND IT CAME TOGETHER. CHRISTINA: EVERY COMPANY HAS A MESS PRESCRIPTION DRUG PROVIDER. IT SEEMS LIKE IT IS ALWAYS CVS. LISA:LISA: THE CEO SAYS IT WILL HELP THEM GROW FASTER. PUBLICLY TRADED. CHRISTINA: WE ARE DOING GOOD, DAVID. DAVID: I CAN SIT THIS NEXT ONE OUT. LISA: IPO'S. CHRISTINA: NOT A GOOD CATEGORY FOR ME. LISA: THE RESTAURANT TECH PLATFORM ACQUIRED GRUBHUB AND BLUE APRON FILES CONFIDENTIALLY TO GO PUBLIC. WHAT IS ITS NAME? WHAT IS THE NAME OF THIS RESTAURANT TECH PLATFORM? YOU STILL HAVE THE ANSWER. DAVID: I CAN SAY WHATEVER. LISA: RESTAURANT TECH PLATFORM. DAVID: I DON'T KNOW. CHRISTINA: I FEEL LIKE I SAW THIS WEEK. GRUBHUB AND BLUE APRON. DAVID: OPENTABLE. CHRISTINA: TOAST. LISA: WONDER. CHRISTINA: I'M CONFUSED. LISA: THERE IS ONE IN OUR TOWN. CHRISTINA: FOR THE RADIO AUDIENCE, I HAVE NOT FINISHED SAYING THE WRONG ANSWER BEFORE DAVID'S GRUBBY HAND COMES OVER AND REMOVES MY CHIPS. I TAKE THEM. WE HAVE A BONUS. DAVID: SHE HAD VENICE WRITTEN ON THE BACK. WHAT A FUN MOMENT LAST WEEK. IT WAS A BONUS QUESTION ABOUT ITALIAN CITIES. I WROTE IT DOWN AND FLIPPED IT OVER BEFORE SHE FINISHED WRITING SO THAT SHE WROTE VENICE. CHRISTINA: ALL RIGHT THAT TOO. -- I WILL WRITE THAT TOO. DAVID: THE GENTLELADY FROM CONNECTICUT EXCLAIMING VENICE LOUDLY BEFORE WE RECORDED OUR INTERVIEW. CHRISTINA: YOU GUYS HAD A LOT OF FUN WITHOUT ME. SHE'S A GIRL POWER LADY. DAVID: WE HAVE A MINUTE LEFT. LISA: YOU CAN GET THESE BACK, CHRISTINA. THE PRESSURE IS ON. HACKS. WHAT IS THE NAME OF THE HACKER GROUP ACCUSED OF STEALING $6.3 BILLION IN CRYPTO ASSETS FROM BINANCE? WHAT IS THE NAME OF THIS GROUP? IT IS ONE NAME. TWO WORDS THAT SOUND THE SAME. DAVID: I DON'T KNOW BUT IT IS NORTH KOREA. LISA: TRADER TRAITER. DAVID: IT IS GREAT TO PUT ANOTHER POINT ON THE BOARD AND YOU CAN TAKE THE NEWS QUIZ AT BLOOMBERG.COM. IT'S ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE BLOOMBERG BUSINESS APP. I'M DAVID GURA. CHRISTINA: I'M CHRISTINA RUFFINI ALONG WITH LISA MATEO AND WE WILL SEE YOU TOMORROW STARTING AT 7:00 A.M. EASTERN ON BLOOMBERG.COM, RADIO AND TELEVISION. ♪","textShort":"Chain Reaction Tech Selloff, New Chief of Staff\n\n>> COMING UP ON BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND PRESIDENT TRUMP MAKES A CHANGE AT THE TOP. PRES. TRUMP: STEPHEN WAS WITH ME SINCE THE BEGINNING, HE GETS IT POLITICALLY AND IS A VERY GOOD MAN. A GREAT >> MANAGER. >>EMIGRATION HARDLINER…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMOo74j2Lzo"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-07T17:07:28.809Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"0b41a8ef-9d0b-43fc-b236-c88b74db0f78","observations":[{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["Derive BTC options volume surges 124%","BTC options alone: $135M"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The quoted item reports a sharp increase in Derive BTC options trading activity.","topic":"derive btc options activity"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["BTC dumps to $76k"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The quoted item says Bitcoin fell to $76,000.","topic":"bitcoin price"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"para:DRV","confidence":0.75,"dex":"para","earlierSameDirection":1,"entryPx":0.310685,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T17:07:06.943Z","headline":"Expects DRV to have a stronger price floor as revenue-funded buybacks rise in selloffs","id":"sig_2902ef3a02df4e1ebe18db8f","matched":["$DRV $HYPE $AERO $LIT tokens removed from circulation shoots up"],"maxLeverage":5,"rationale":"The post expects DRV to have a stronger price floor because revenue rises when prices fall and buybacks remove tokens from circulation.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"DRV","tags":["buybacks","token supply","price support"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"LIT","confidence":0.75,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":3.18515,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T17:07:06.943Z","headline":"Expects LIT to have a stronger price floor as revenue-funded buybacks rise in selloffs","id":"sig_43c0dfb26e804a4ba4afd036","matched":["$DRV $HYPE $AERO $LIT tokens removed from circulation shoots up"],"maxLeverage":5,"rationale":"The post expects LIT to have a stronger price floor because revenue rises when prices fall and buybacks remove tokens from circulation.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"LIT","tags":["buybacks","token supply","price support"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"HYPE","confidence":0.75,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":77.1635,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T17:07:06.943Z","headline":"Expects HYPE to have a stronger price floor as revenue-funded buybacks rise in selloffs","id":"sig_af23310ba4c943309cbe8508","matched":["$DRV $HYPE $AERO $LIT tokens removed from circulation shoots up"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The post expects HYPE to have a stronger price floor because revenue rises when prices fall and buybacks remove tokens from circulation.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"HYPE","tags":["buybacks","token supply","price support"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"AERO","confidence":0.75,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":0.596545,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T17:07:06.943Z","headline":"Expects AERO to have a stronger price floor as revenue-funded buybacks rise in selloffs","id":"sig_edc29777b9c54b45bca9598d","matched":["$DRV $HYPE $AERO $LIT tokens removed from circulation shoots up"],"maxLeverage":3,"rationale":"The post expects AERO to have a stronger price floor because revenue rises when prices fall and buybacks remove tokens from circulation.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"AERO","tags":["buybacks","token supply","price support"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"ed01e59b-00cc-418d-9502-758334c5d941","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-07T17:05:50.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1613764698775633921/72tL5YzB_normal.jpg","handle":"@DeFi_Dad","id":"x-991745162274467840","name":"DeFi Dad ⟠ defidad.eth","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Reposted @koolkrypto223: Oh your token doesn't capitalize on and monetize volatility shocks and put in strong revenue days, even during market pukes, and then direct that revenue to holders via buybacks? \n\nNgmi...\n\n$DRV $HYPE $AERO $LIT tokens removed from circulation shoots up on days like today because revenue is up when price is down; fundamental floor setting when it's most needed.\n\nQuoting: GM\n\nBTC dumps to $76k → Derive BTC options volume surges 124%.\n\n$231M traded yesterday, $189M of it options, BTC options alone: $135M.\n\nVolatility is traded on Derive 🔥🐴","textShort":"Reposted @koolkrypto223: Oh your token doesn't capitalize on and monetize volatility shocks and put in strong revenue days, even during market pukes, and then direct that revenue to holders via buybacks? \n\nNgmi...\n\n$DRV $HYPE $AERO $LIT tokens removed from circulation shoots…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/DeFi_Dad/status/2119114114127523894"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-07T14:41:16.440Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"0e17dbe1-2c8b-460f-a128-7b6fff731f5e","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["barrier to entry has now become extremely high","it heavily favors some over others","larger moat against newer DC developers"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The source sees established neoclouds gaining an edge from high barriers to entry, while newer developers face financing and permitting risks.","topic":"neocloud competition"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["Rosenblatt's recent note","they see little risk with $NBIS primary buildout"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Rosenblatt reportedly sees little risk to NBIS's primary buildout across several states.","topic":"nbis buildout risk"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:NBIS","confidence":0.69,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":2,"entryPx":129.755,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T14:40:24.923Z","headline":"Expects NBIS to benefit from attractive neocloud economics and barriers to new competitors","id":"sig_e1bca48a7c3240198ca72cb8","matched":["$NBIS","theme looks compelling","increase the competitive advantage of established neoclouds"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source finds neoclouds like NBIS compelling and expects tighter financing and permitting to favor established developers over new entrants.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"NBIS","tags":["neoclouds","ai infrastructure","competition"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"785e505b-5761-49f1-a754-9cf3d57762ea","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-07T14:40:14.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1996176688414367744/LXfA_lIx_normal.jpg","handle":"@aleabitoreddit","id":"x-1940360837547565056","name":"Serenity","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"I'm going to give a contrarian take on Neoclouds like $NBIS and say the theme looks compelling after the valuation crash. \n\nSince there's a reason why Elon's $SPCX is heavily focused on this market full of \"guppies\" that would die: \n\nHe sees how attractive the economics are after selling compute to $GOOGL and Anthropic. \n\nAnd this is reflected by his actions not words, from SpaceX's recent $40B financing for GPUs procurement. \n$AMZN, $MSFT, and even $META also see how profitable the economics are and are accelerating their AI DC buildouts. \n\nI'd argue if a Neocloud has: \n\n- Close relationships with $NVDA + others for allocations\n- Existing contracted capacity + permitting\n- Well funded counterparties, such as Hyperscalers. \n- Attractive economics, such as financing their procurement correctly (not the way $CRWV has with high debt interest unless they refinance). \n\nThen I think they'll do just fine... \n\nHowever, the bigger worry is more toward newer players starting financing or the permitting process, since barrier to entry has now become extremely high. \n\nFor financing, read through on $IREN earnings has shown public Neoclouds can adapt extremely well to tight markets:\n\nAs seen with their 90% prepayments for GPU capex on a 5Y deal. \n\nTheir older H100 GPUs recontracted at double their previous pricing and 12% higher contracted pricing also point against depreciation fears. \n\nAnd in the case DC buildouts slow from permitting delays... it heavily favors some over others. \n\nRosenblatt's recent note for example stated they see little risk with $NBIS primary buildout that was in Missouri, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina. \n\nAnd there's probably less risk with developers in places like Australia. \n\nMarkets have also show this infinite compute arbitrage can't go on forever, hence the reluctance to further finance capex, via things like ATMs. \n\nBut ironically, tighter financing and hypothetical restrictive permitting would increase the competitive advantage of established neoclouds. \n\nAnd create a larger moat against newer DC developers.","textShort":"I'm going to give a contrarian take on Neoclouds like $NBIS and say the theme looks compelling after the valuation crash. \n\nSince there's a reason why Elon's $SPCX is heavily focused on this market full of \"guppies\" that would die: \n\nHe sees how attractive the economics are…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2119077473107472729"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-07T13:49:02.448Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"13b0eac2-3729-4b2f-8ffb-a6832d58408a","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["buy more at a lower price","I feel underexposed"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source says they want to buy more PRL, ideally at a lower price.","topic":"prl accumulation"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"io:PRL","confidence":0.87,"dex":"io","earlierSameDirection":1,"entryPx":1.78405,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T13:48:46.177Z","headline":"Wants to buy more PRL if FUD pushes its price lower","id":"sig_f772fe3a5dc641ee82438144","matched":["$PRL","buy more at a lower price","underexposed"],"maxLeverage":3,"rationale":"The source wants to add to its PRL position and hopes to buy at a lower price.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"PRL","tags":["accumulation","buy the dip"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"3b58ba17-eeb1-4b3d-aa56-0a194570c934","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-07T13:47:18.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2002001196731506688/tPRgpUpu_normal.jpg","handle":"@ZoomerOracle","id":"x-1297920445979807744","name":"Zoomer Oracle","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Can we create some more fud around $PRL so I can buy more at a lower price? I feel underexposed","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/ZoomerOracle/status/2119064151498576056"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-07T12:52:40.081Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[{"kind":"signal","proposal":{"market":"xyz:IGV"},"reason":"market_unlisted"}],"id":"b8dad08b-17e4-43ac-bec2-5cfce8a59f93","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["starting long position on Some AI"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source says it is beginning long positions in some AI stocks.","topic":"ai stocks"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["I remain high on cash position atm"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source says it remains heavily positioned in cash.","topic":"cash position"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["a new ATH Nasdaq push","less of a good RR for massive new entry","some rotation will start hitting the fan"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The source notes the Nasdaq reached a new all-time high but says fresh entries offer less favorable risk and reward as profit-taking and rotation may begin.","topic":"nasdaq rally"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["$SMH was showing a much lower target in view"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The source recalls that SMH had a substantially lower target in view during the earlier market setup.","topic":"smh target"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["They all started to rally massively","the AI trade were starting the consolidation phase"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source says its defensive stocks rallied while the AI trade consolidated.","topic":"defensive stocks"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"para:IGV","confidence":0.66,"dex":"para","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":98.904,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T12:52:01.360Z","headline":"Expects software stocks to weaken as SaaS remains weak","id":"sig_1871533d56f04552b405e86f","matched":["looking for the SaaS weakness still"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source expects SaaS weakness to weigh on software stocks.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"IGV","tags":["software","saas"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"25242dce-97d3-431a-a723-51995dfeff8c","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-07T12:51:00.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2001077543756034053/wIOsae_y_normal.jpg","handle":"@Brownmoose","id":"x-933330884626993152","name":"Moose","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"At the market ATH we warned everyone that rotation will take place.\n\nFrom there our Defensive name such as \n\n$BRK \n$V \n$MCD \n$DE\n$WMT \n\nThey all started to rally massively while the AI trade were starting the consolidation phase.\n\nA lot of our Subscriber went full cash ahead of this prevision knowing that $SMH was showing a much lower target in view.\n\nWe now sold most of our Defensive name and we are starting long position on Some AI and looking for the SaaS weakness still.\n\nMake sure next time to follow up all index and not bid blindly all your cash too high. \n\nI remain high on cash position atm and we will send more position Short/ lonng to our subscriber.\n\nQuoting their own post: $NQ There was 2 key point last week pointing that this rally would have some legs.\n\nFirst you had the intra week range highlighted with the 2 white line in paralleled where we been buying selling intra range and confirming daily if market would dip or right that day.\n\nOnce this broke out it also broke the 109 days trendline that point the retail is coming in force pushing the market higher.\n\nNow 3 trading session later and a new ATH Nasdaq push this is where is become less of a good RR for massive new entry , this is where some will start taking profit and some rotation will start hitting the fan.","textShort":"At the market ATH we warned everyone that rotation will take place.\n\nFrom there our Defensive name such as \n\n$BRK \n$V \n$MCD \n$DE\n$WMT \n\nThey all started to rally massively while the AI trade were starting the consolidation phase.\n\nA lot of our Subscriber went full cash ahead…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/Brownmoose/status/2119049981394894963"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-07T08:47:42.170Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"d03b1d54-68c4-461b-baec-c92ab739d262","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Semiconductor stocks recorded their worst session since March 2020.","Investors are questioning valuations, infrastructure spending"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The post reports a severe selloff in semiconductor stocks and says investors are questioning valuations and AI infrastructure spending.","topic":"semiconductor stocks"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["A cheaper entry can be attractive","A market correction can continue longer than expected.","I'm interested in Anthropic"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The author is interested in participating but says valuation and the possibility of a prolonged market correction warrant caution.","topic":"anthropic public round"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:ANT","confidence":0.6,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":95.5855,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T08:47:26.523Z","headline":"The reposted author would take a measured position in Anthropic’s public round","id":"sig_a9fa81a36b3640648b76a778","matched":["ANT 1:1","participate through IPO Prime's public round","keep my commitment measured rather than go all in"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The reposted author would join Anthropic’s public round with a measured commitment, while warning that a market correction could continue.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"ANT","tags":["ipo","anthropic","public round"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"0da67d09-68cf-4b09-848e-a200b3f8814d","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-07T08:45:42.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2109414096512888832/iJ-vTCaS_normal.jpg","handle":"@AB_geniuss","id":"x-1874854523199754240","name":"AB","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Reposted @Big_Holiest1: Something interesting is happening in the AI market.\n\nThe companies supplying the infrastructure for AI just took a serious hit. Semiconductor stocks recorded their worst session since March 2020.\n\nAnd the pressure isn't limited to chipmakers.\n\nInvestors are questioning valuations, infrastructure spending and how quickly data centres can expand.\n\nNaturally, that makes me look at the Anthropic IPO differently.\n\nA cheaper entry can be attractive, but only if the underlying valuation makes sense. A market correction can continue longer than expected.\n\nMy approach would be to participate through IPO Prime's public round, but keep my commitment measured rather than go all in.\n\nI'd also keep an eye on ANTHROPICUSDT perpetuals for shorter-term opportunities.\n\nOne thing I appreciate about Bitget is that the subscription and trading routes are available within the same ecosystem.\n\nAnd after allocation, $rANT tracks ANT 1:1, is backed by ANT shares held in custody, and has no lock-up once delivered.\n\nI'm interested in Anthropic, but I'm not ignoring the market conditions surrounding it.\n\nYou can be part of it here; https://t.co/WNMjVm7Ztd\n\nNot financial advice. Understand the risks before participating.","textShort":"Reposted @Big_Holiest1: Something interesting is happening in the AI market.\n\nThe companies supplying the infrastructure for AI just took a serious hit. Semiconductor stocks recorded their worst session since March 2020.\n\nAnd the pressure isn't limited to…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/AB_geniuss/status/2118988249465053443"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-07T06:56:27.788Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"c796473d-b395-4b2c-8160-b5f8a704d659","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["making agent payments simpler and more flexible","Pay per call, not per month.","The future of autonomous agents is getting interesting."],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The post presents pay-per-request payments as a simpler, more flexible option for autonomous agents.","topic":"x402 agent payments"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"SOL","confidence":0.9,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":90.2275,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T06:55:45.610Z","headline":"The source’s AI agent buys $10 of SOL every morning","id":"sig_0fc682d6aec748ce8332d937","matched":["My AI agent buys $10 worth of SOL every morning."],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"The source says their agent regularly buys SOL, indicating ongoing long exposure.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"SOL","tags":["recurring purchase","ai agents"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"3f56b2ff-9e4a-47f3-9987-9138af190252","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-07T06:55:28.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2104464114055786496/aFdL-LmD_normal.jpg","handle":"@SolGemLab","id":"x-1433840323730423809","name":"Sol Man","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"My AI agent buys $10 worth of SOL every morning. ☀️\n\nThe interesting part? It pays just $0.001 per price quote.\n\nNo API keys. No monthly subscriptions. Just pay per request using x402.\n\n@swapdotio is making agent payments simpler and more flexible.\n\nPay per call, not per month.\n\nThe future of autonomous agents is getting interesting. 👀\n\n@Superteam @SwapPresale\n\n#Solana #x402 #AIagents #Web3","textShort":"My AI agent buys $10 worth of SOL every morning. ☀️\n\nThe interesting part? It pays just $0.001 per price quote.\n\nNo API keys. No monthly subscriptions. Just pay per request using x402.\n\n@swapdotio is making agent payments simpler and more flexible.\n\nPay per call, not per…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/SolGemLab/status/2118960510553239957"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-07T04:53:28.908Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[{"kind":"signal","proposal":{"market":"[\"hyperliquid\",\"para\",\"para:AVGO\"]"},"reason":"duplicate_asset"}],"id":"53b4dfad-e00e-48c5-872f-0d1fdff2fc4d","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["올해 내년 확실한 수요가 존재하는 반도체","역사상 가장 큰 웨이브를 막긴 어려울 것이라 생각"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source expects solid semiconductor demand this year and next, and thinks the larger industry wave will be hard to stop.","topic":"semiconductor demand"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["여전히 벨류에이션만 보면 저렴하다 볼 수 있지만","유럽 진출과 무엇보다 신장 시장 진출의 성공에 달려있습니다","불확실성과 변동성이 예상되기에"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The source says TransMedics may still look inexpensive, but its prospects depend on uncertain expansion and carry near-term volatility.","topic":"transmedics"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:AVGO","confidence":0.95,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":294.865,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-07T04:52:59.126Z","headline":"The source opened a Broadcom position, seeing it as a more certain opportunity amid near-term semiconductor demand.","id":"sig_3e6512cce8f549cdbce8f2e6","matched":["$AVGO 브로드컴 투자를 시작한 이유","⭐️신규 포지션: 브로드컴 $AVGO","- 구매가: $292.1"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source started a Broadcom position because it expects stronger near-term demand for semiconductors and sees Broadcom as a more certain opportunity.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"AVGO","tags":["broadcom","semiconductors","new position"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"26a65484-fe84-49aa-b1e0-cc1d30a43295","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-07T04:52:19.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2085368697959686145/7pHLPy3a_normal.jpg","handle":"@damnang2","id":"x-1979288764313931779","name":"Damnang","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Reposted @kimsbinvesting: $TMDX 트랜스메딕스를 전량 매도 하고 $AVGO 브로드컴 투자를 시작한 이유는 트랜스메딕스가 더이상 매력적이지 않은 투자처이기 때문이라기 보단,\n\n브로드컴이 현 주가 기준으로 더욱 확실한 기회라고 판단했기 때문입니다.\n\n트랜스메딕스 또한 주가 상승 이후에도 여전히 벨류에이션만 보면 저렴하다 볼 수 있지만 투자의 성공 여부 대부분이 유럽 진출과 무엇보다 신장 시장 진출의 성공에 달려있습니다.\n\n이 두 가지 조건이 달성되기 까지 시간이 꽤 필요하고 그동안 FDA 임상 실험과 계절성에 따른 불확실성과 변동성이 예상되기에 그보다는 당장 올해 내년 확실한 수요가 존재하는 반도체 비중을 다시 늘리기로 결정했습니다. \n\n정치적인 이유가 역사상 가장 큰 웨이브를 막긴 어려울 것이라 생각하고 그리고 무엇보다 이미 주가는 어느 정도 이러한 리스크를 반영한 상태라 생각합니다.\n\n반도체 비중이 없던 터라 이참에 포트폴리오 관리 차원에서도 늘리기 좋은 기회라 판단했습니다.\n\nQuoting their own post: <2026년 11월 6일 매매기록>\n\n❌전량 매도: 트랜스메딕스 $TMDX \n- 평단가: $83.75\n- 판매가: $87\n- 비중 5.3% 포지션 전량 매도.\n- 수익률: +3.9%📈\n\n⭐️신규 포지션: 브로드컴 $AVGO \n- 구매가: $292.1\n- 비중 5.3% 포지션 시작.","textShort":"Reposted @kimsbinvesting: $TMDX 트랜스메딕스를 전량 매도 하고 $AVGO 브로드컴 투자를 시작한 이유는 트랜스메딕스가 더이상 매력적이지 않은 투자처이기 때문이라기 보단,\n\n브로드컴이 현 주가 기준으로 더욱 확실한 기회라고 판단했기 때문입니다.\n\n트랜스메딕스 또한 주가 상승 이후에도 여전히 벨류에이션만 보면 저렴하다 볼 수 있지만 투자의 성공 여부 대부분이 유럽 진출과 무엇보다 신장 시장 진출의 성공에 달려있습니다.\n\n이 두 가지 조건이 달성되기 까지 시간이 꽤…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/damnang2/status/2118929518195068969"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T22:59:02.877Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"a71b177e-0bdc-4458-ac7d-6cf2d7e546d5","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["MORE MEASURED PACE, WE THINK","WE DON'T THINK AI IS GOING AWAY"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"Mimi Duff expects the AI buildout to proceed at a more measured pace but says AI is not going away.","topic":"ai buildout"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["QUALITY INDUSTRIALS IN EUROPE","VERY STABLE FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION","THAT STABILITY ACTUALLY CAN BE WORTH A LOT MORE"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Nelson Yu sees stable cash flow from quality European industrials as potentially valuable as growth slows.","topic":"european industrials"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["AS THE S&P BREAKS","CYCLICALLY SENSITIVE GROUPS COME UNDER SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Jason Hunter warned that if the S&P breaks, cyclical stocks could come under pressure as tech weakness spreads.","topic":"tech and cyclical stocks"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["I THINK DEFENSE IS A REALLY INTERESTING THEME HERE","WE'VE SEEN SOMEWHAT OF A PULLBACK","A 10-YEAR TREND IN TERMS OF THE NEED TO RE-BUILD UP DEFENSES"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Nelson Yu sees a long-term need for defense rebuilding, though he says defense companies have pulled back this year.","topic":"defense spending"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["HEALTH CARE IS A REALLY GOOD THING HERE","HEALTH CARE COULD WIN IF AI WINS","HEALTH CARE HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE HEDGE AGAINST TECHNOLOGY SLOWDOWNS"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Nelson Yu sees healthcare as attractive because it could hold up whether AI succeeds or slows.","topic":"healthcare sector"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["BRENT CRUDE DROPPING","THE BIGGEST DROP IN CRUDE OIL PRICES SINCE APRIL OF 2020"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The broadcast reports that Brent crude had its largest weekly drop since April 2020.","topic":"crude oil prices"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO RAISE RATES","POTENTIAL FOR EASING FROM THEIR"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The broadcast says persistent inflation could force a rate hike, while Mimi Duff sees possible easing if growth slows significantly.","topic":"fed rates"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["THERE IS NO DOUBT LEGISLATION HAS STALLED","WE ARE GETTING CLARITY IN THE CRYPTO SPACE","WE PREFER LEGISLATION"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"A Coinbase executive says crypto legislation has stalled but expects regulators to provide clarity and remains open to pursuing legislation.","topic":"crypto regulation"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"para:2Y","confidence":0.9,"dex":"para","earlierSameDirection":2,"entryPx":4.53885,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T22:59:01.172Z","headline":"Mimi Duff favors short-term Treasuries, implying lower two-year yields","id":"sig_39e8335166bc46d39a185ddc","matched":["OVERWEIGHT THE FRONT-END OF TREASURIES"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"Mimi Duff says she is overweight short-term Treasuries, a position that benefits from bond prices rising and two-year yields falling.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"2Y","tags":["treasuries","interest rates","bonds"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:ASML","confidence":0.75,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":1429.05,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T22:59:01.172Z","headline":"Nelson Yu sees ASML positioned to win over the long term","id":"sig_6251eb15eccd4135a93bbb0d","matched":["ASML IN EUROPE","CAN WIN THE LONG-TERM HERE"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"Nelson Yu expects ASML to benefit over time from its long-term contracts.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"ASML","tags":["semiconductors","ai","contracts"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:EWJ","confidence":0.75,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":88.443,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T22:59:01.172Z","headline":"Nelson Yu sees Japanese shares as an area of opportunity","id":"sig_dac49404ba864e31aebf5521","matched":["JAPAN HAS BEEN UNDER THIS ACTIVISM PROGRAM","THAT IS AN AREA OF OPPORTUNITY THAT WE FIND"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"Nelson Yu expects Japanese shares to offer opportunity, citing pressure on companies to improve profitability and a return to shareholder value.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"EWJ","tags":["japan","equities","shareholder value"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"9595b7b4-558c-40db-88cf-f899e63ae13f","marks":[{"at":45,"t":1},{"at":588,"t":43},{"at":1017,"t":74},{"at":1477,"t":109},{"at":1968,"t":143},{"at":2625,"t":179},{"at":3093,"t":210},{"at":3556,"t":248},{"at":4648,"t":310},{"at":5293,"t":347},{"at":5833,"t":379},{"at":6417,"t":423},{"at":7010,"t":460},{"at":7519,"t":496},{"at":8419,"t":560},{"at":8958,"t":602},{"at":9506,"t":636},{"at":10305,"t":682},{"at":11382,"t":742},{"at":12030,"t":778},{"at":12852,"t":838},{"at":13419,"t":878},{"at":13905,"t":909},{"at":14535,"t":955},{"at":14973,"t":989},{"at":15369,"t":1025},{"at":15796,"t":1056},{"at":16226,"t":1095},{"at":16862,"t":1134},{"at":17234,"t":1164},{"at":17645,"t":1196},{"at":18117,"t":1231},{"at":18560,"t":1264},{"at":19012,"t":1298},{"at":19640,"t":1344},{"at":20222,"t":1383},{"at":20678,"t":1416},{"at":21198,"t":1447},{"at":21690,"t":1479},{"at":22233,"t":1511},{"at":22869,"t":1549},{"at":23597,"t":1597},{"at":24337,"t":1647},{"at":24890,"t":1684},{"at":25647,"t":1729},{"at":26165,"t":1761},{"at":26618,"t":1794},{"at":27035,"t":1828},{"at":27546,"t":1868},{"at":28179,"t":1912},{"at":28818,"t":1954},{"at":29432,"t":1994},{"at":29923,"t":2028},{"at":30628,"t":2083},{"at":31083,"t":2115},{"at":31335,"t":2149},{"at":31696,"t":2182},{"at":32210,"t":2220},{"at":32708,"t":2260},{"at":33114,"t":2291},{"at":33528,"t":2323},{"at":34155,"t":2367},{"at":34828,"t":2421},{"at":35257,"t":2453},{"at":35730,"t":2489},{"at":36211,"t":2520},{"at":36910,"t":2583},{"at":37331,"t":2617},{"at":37760,"t":2648},{"at":38206,"t":2685},{"at":38670,"t":2719},{"at":39431,"t":2765},{"at":39846,"t":2797},{"at":40381,"t":2829},{"at":40936,"t":2868},{"at":41493,"t":2906},{"at":42107,"t":2948},{"at":42642,"t":2980},{"at":43358,"t":3022},{"at":43856,"t":3056},{"at":44300,"t":3087},{"at":45015,"t":3137},{"at":45399,"t":3171},{"at":45972,"t":3203},{"at":46596,"t":3238},{"at":47259,"t":3277},{"at":48042,"t":3324},{"at":48627,"t":3364},{"at":49078,"t":3396},{"at":49478,"t":3429},{"at":50375,"t":3485},{"at":50873,"t":3516},{"at":51834,"t":3577},{"at":52333,"t":3610},{"at":53022,"t":3655},{"at":53617,"t":3694},{"at":54190,"t":3731},{"at":54880,"t":3787},{"at":55570,"t":3833},{"at":56413,"t":3891},{"at":56964,"t":3933},{"at":57466,"t":3965},{"at":57817,"t":3995},{"at":58183,"t":4026},{"at":58647,"t":4057},{"at":59168,"t":4091},{"at":59910,"t":4153},{"at":60659,"t":4206},{"at":61022,"t":4240},{"at":61631,"t":4282},{"at":62248,"t":4323},{"at":62709,"t":4359},{"at":63404,"t":4403},{"at":64077,"t":4447},{"at":64660,"t":4484},{"at":65194,"t":4515},{"at":65854,"t":4553},{"at":66506,"t":4600},{"at":67283,"t":4646},{"at":67787,"t":4678},{"at":68196,"t":4710},{"at":68801,"t":4746},{"at":69690,"t":4808},{"at":70426,"t":4854},{"at":70932,"t":4893},{"at":71509,"t":4929},{"at":72038,"t":4967},{"at":72680,"t":5015},{"at":73163,"t":5048},{"at":73811,"t":5109},{"at":74562,"t":5160},{"at":75131,"t":5196},{"at":75631,"t":5230},{"at":76136,"t":5262},{"at":76780,"t":5306},{"at":77293,"t":5341},{"at":77785,"t":5375},{"at":78270,"t":5406},{"at":78867,"t":5448},{"at":79646,"t":5500},{"at":80032,"t":5530}],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T22:55:10.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://yt3.googleusercontent.com/4-w44catDebzaDSUWgereql0G5_z5o7VpJXuIYL_eZ3H1vXy0lTmrole9V500jTUXCnQPZ5CuKQ=s900-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj","handle":"@markets","id":"yt-UCIALMKvObZNtJ6AmdCLP7Lg","name":"Bloomberg Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Markets Rebound After Historic Tech Selloff\n\n>> THE COUNTDOWN IS ON, EVERYTHING YOU NEED FOR THE EDGE AT THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS THE CLOSE. >> THE REASON TO BUY, FAR FROM BEING BACK ON TRACK. LIVE FROM STUDIO TWO I AM ROMAINE BOSTICK. >> I'M KAILEY LEINZ. YES, WE ARE SEEING A BOUNCE BUT NOWHERE CLOSE TO RECOVERING FROM YESTERDAY'S LOSSES IN THERE NOT THAT MUCH BREADTH. WHILE WE SEE THE STOCK SAID NEXT, THE CHIPMAKERS ARE UP BY MORE THAN 4% COMING OFF OF A 12% DECLINE YESTERDAY. EVEN WITH THE GAME TODAY IT IS STILL ON PACE FOR ITS WORST WEEK GOING BACK TO APRIL OF 20 25. VOLATILITY CALMING DOWN AFTER THE VIX EXPECTED TO A 28 HANDLE YESTERDAY COMING DOWN TO THE 24 LEVEL. OF COURSE WE HAVE A NONFARM PAYROLLS PRINT TO THE TOP EXPECTATIONS TO DEAL WITH. WHILE BUT DID SEND HIGHER, HAS MODERATED A LOT OF THE TWO BASIS POINTS ON THE 10-YEAR RIGHT AROUND 4.85. ROMAINE: ONE HOUR UNTIL THE CONTEXT OF TODAY, LIQUIDATION EVENT DRIVEN MORE BY AN UNWIND IN MOMENTUM RATHER THAN A BREAKDOWN IN FUNDAMENTALS. THAT OPENED THE DOOR FOR SOME BARGAIN-HUNTING BUT TO SAY THE HUNT IS INCREDIBLY SELECTIVE MIGHT BE AN INCREDIBLE UNDERSTATEMENT. IN THE RED DESPITE GREEN AT THE INDEX LEVEL. SPACEX AND META ARE UP. OTHER NAMES LIKE CISCO AND MICROSOFT ARE DOWN. ORACLE STRADDLING THE LINE BETWEEN GAINS AND LOSSES. THE PRICING OF THE AI TRADE UNDERWAY ON AT LEAST TWO FRONTS. ONE, THE COST OF THE BUILDOUT AND THE POLITICAL PERMISSION NEEDED TO EXPAND. TWO, MARKET TECHNICALS. YESTERDAY THEY FORCED A TREND FOLLOWERS AND LEVERAGED FUNDS TO PANIC, HITTING 9.57 ON THE SCALE OF 10 AND AN EXTREME READING THAT HISTORICALLY WOULD SIGNAL A STRONGER RALLY UP AHEAD BUT JP MORGAN TECHNICAL STRATEGIST JASON HUNTER TOLD US YESTERDAY THAT SOME FUNDS MAY BE SITTING ON $50 BILLION IN STOCK POSITIONS THAT THEY STILL NEED TO SELL. >> WHAT YOU'VE SEEN UNFOLD THROUGH THE SUMMER IS GIVE-AND-TAKE THROUGH THE EQUITY MARKET, IF TECH IS WEAK EVERYTHING ELSE IS STRONG AND VICE VERSA. AS THE S&P BREAKS YOU COULD SEE A CATCH DOWN TRADE OF CYCLICAL TO TECH WHERE TECH DOESN'T NECESSARILY START TO BOUNCE BUT STARTS TO DECELERATE AND THE MORE CYCLICALLY SENSITIVE GROUPS COME UNDER SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE AS THE MARKET BREAKS. ROMAINE: A THIRD FACTOR IN PLAY IS THE FACT THAT THERE MIGHT BE LESS ROOM FOR AN EASY FED RESCUE GIVEN THE LATEST ECONOMIC DATA. THE MONTHLY PAYROLLS REPORT SHOWING AN UNEXPECTED SURGE IN HIRING LAST MONTH. DAYS BEFORE AN UPDATE ON CPI THAT IS PROJECTED TO SHOW INFLATION. REMAINS PERSISTENT. WHICH MEANS THE FED REMAINS WITH IT'S BACK TO THE WALL AND THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO RAISE RATES AT ITS MEETING IN DECEMBER. AS WE CLOSE OUT THIS WEEK AND LOOK AROUND THE CORNER TO NEXT, LET'S BRING IN NELSON YU, HEAD OF EQUITIES AT AL ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN. I'M CURIOUS, WHEN WE TALK ABOUT WHAT DROVE YESTERDAY'S SELLOFF AND WHAT DROVE WEDNESDAY'S RALLY, WAS NOT TRULY ABOUT THE ELECTION RESULTS OR WAS THIS MORE ABOUT SOME OF THE BUILT UP ANXIETY AND, I GUESS, UNCERTAINTY WE'VE SEEN IN THE MARKETS IN THE WEEKS LEADING UP TO IT? NELSON: WE'VE BEEN SEEING THIS UNWIND FOR WELL OVER A MONTH NOW. YOU SAW SOME OF THE EARNINGS COME THROUGH A FEW WEEKS AGO AMONG THE HYPERSCALERS, DEFINITELY SAW CAPITAL DISCIPLINE BEING PUT TO QUESTION. ONES THAT CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE DEFINITELY GOT THROUGH THE EARNINGS WAS ACTUALLY JUST A SQUEEZE THAT THE SURGE IN MEMORY PRICES WAS CAUSING. WE WERE STARTING TO SEE THAT IMPACT AUTO SUPPLIERS AND OTHER CONSUMER PRODUCTS IN TERMS OF THE COST OF MEMORY AND HOW IT WAS SQUEEZING OUT OTHER PARTS OF THE CONSUMER SUPPLY CHAIN. ROMAINE: I'M CURIOUS, DO YOU THINK THERE COULD BE SORT OF A SILVER LINING IN ALL OF THIS, THE IDEA THAT THERE IS A BIT OF A MORE RESTRAINT ON SPENDING, THERE ARE NAMES OF THE MARKET THAT MAYBE WOULD POTENTIALLY BENEFIT? I BRING THIS UP BECAUSE THERE WAS REPORT ON BLOOMBERG ABOUT MICROSOFT HAD REALLY STARTED TO RETHINK SOME OF ITS NEO CLOUD CONTRACTS. NOT NECESSARILY GREAT FOR THE NEO-CLOUDS, BUT FOR MICROSOFT IT SEEMS A LITTLE MORE PRUDENT -- A LITTLE MORE PRUDENCE MIGHT BE REWARDED. NELSON: THERE'S A LOT OF GOOD THAT COULD HAPPEN HERE. IF YOU LOOK THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER AS WE COME INTO THE FALL, ONE THING WE NOTICED IS THE MARKET IS BEING DRIVEN BY THIS AI NARRATIVE. IF YOU LOOK AT -- WHETHER YOU LOOK AT YOUR BASKET OF AI STOCKS OR ANY OTHER BROKER'S BASKET OF AI STOCKS COME YOU CAN SEE THE ENTIRE MARKET WAS BEING DRIVEN BY -- PERFECTLY CORRELATED TO THE MOVEMENTS ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS. WE ARE SEEING A LOT OF OTHER THEMES HAPPENING. YOUR POINT, THE ABILITY FOR OTHER COMPANIES TO DO BETTER. IF YOU GET A SLOWDOWN IN SPENDING, MAYBE THE PRESSURE ON DEBT COMES DOWN AND RATES CAN COME DOWN. THAT CAN ACTUALLY BE A RELIEF VALVE FOR THE BROADER CONSUMER ECONOMY.\" THINK THERE ARE A LOT OF OTHER WAYS THAT THIS COULD ACTUALLY HELP BROADEN THE MARKET FURTHER. KAILEY: SO YOU WOULD CHASE THE ROTATION HERE? NELSON: WE HAVE BEEN CHASING THE ROTATION FOR A WHILE. ONE OF THE THINGS WE'VE BEEN SAYING IS IN THE ERA OF HIGHER RATES WE DO NEED QUALITY AS AN ANCHOR, BUT WE NEED TO BE SEEKING DIVERSIFICATION AND WAYS OF ACTIVELY REDUCING VOLATILITY. I DO THINK DIVERSIFICATION -- THERE ARE A LOT OF GREAT THEMES. HEALTH CARE IS A REALLY GOOD THING HERE. WHAT YOU'VE SEEN HIS REVISIONS AND HEALTH CARE COMPANIES HAVE GONE UP VERY FAST. THEY STILL REMAIN VERY UNDERVALUED, DESPITE THE STRONG PERFORMANCE THAT WE SEE YEAR IN HEALTH CARE. THIS IS ONE OF THE CASES ARE HEALTH CARE COULD WIN IF AI WINS BECAUSE IT IS SO LABOR-INTENSIVE, OR IT COULD WIN IF AI LOSES BECAUSE HEALTH CARE HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE HEDGE AGAINST TECHNOLOGY SLOWDOWNS. KAILEY: WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE ROTATION IN THE U.S. AND MAY BE OTHER CYCLICAL OPPORTUNITIES PRESENTED HERE, WHAT ABOUT THINKING IN U.S. MARKETS RELATIVE TO INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, CONSIDERING HOW MUCH LEADERSHIP IN TECH IS EMBEDDED HERE? DOES THE ROTATION WE ARE SEEING ACTUALLY CREATE SOME OPPORTUNITIES INTERNATIONALLY, THAT THIS IS NOT THE ONLY STORY IN THE GAME? NELSON: I HAVE THREE STORIES FOR YOU. FIRST IN JAPAN -- WE'VE KNOWN FOR YEARS, A COUPLE OF YEARS NOW, JAPAN HAS BEEN UNDER THIS ACTIVISM PROGRAM WHERE THE INVESTORS HAVE REALLY BEEN PRESSURING COMPANIES TO RAISE THEIR PROFITABILITY. PRETTY HARD BECAUSE THEY ARE A BIG PART OF THE AI SUPPLY CHAIN, SHARES. THOSE COMPANIES ARE UP ABOUT 10% THIS WEEK. THERE'S A BIG DISPERSION GOING ON. THERE REALLY IS RETURNED TO SHAREHOLDER VALUE THAT'S WORKING IN JAPAN. SO THAT IS AN AREA OF OPPORTUNITY THAT WE FIND. I THINK IN EUROPE THAT'S REALLY INTERESTING. AS GROWTH STARTS TO SLOW DOWN YOU CAN FIND A LOT OF QUALITY INDUSTRIALS IN EUROPE THAT JUST HAVE VERY STABLE FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION, AND THAT STABILITY ACTUALLY CAN BE WORTH A LOT MORE. THIS IS A PLACE WHERE IT MAY BE EUROPE'S LACK OF AI COULD ACTUALLY BE HELP HERE. ROMAINE: ON THE HERBICIDE YOU'RE PRETTY MUCH COMMITTED TO THAT DESPITE SOME OF THE POLITICAL UNREST -- ON THE EUROPE SIDE, YOU'RE PRETTY MUCH COMMITTED TO THAT DESPITE SOME OF THE POLITICAL UNREST THAT COULD TRICKLE INTO MARKETS? NELSON: IN EUROPE YOU HAVE TO LOOK COMPANY BY COMPANY AND UNDERSTAND THE BUSINESS, CASH FLOW GENERATION POWER OF EACH OF THE BUSINESSES, AND WHETHER OR NOT THE PROFITABILITY TO WORK. WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO FIND COMPANIES WITH THEIR LONG-TERM CONTRACTS. IF YOU WANT TO TALK AI, YOU HAVE COMPANIES LIKE ASML IN EUROPE THAT HAVE STRUCTURED IN VERY LONG-TERM CONTRACTS THAT CAN WIN THE LONG-TERM HERE. ROMAINE: WHERE DO YOU STAND NOW WITH REGARDS TO THE BROADER IN EUROPE THAT WAS A BIG PLAY, PARTICULARLY LAST YEAR. NELSON: I THINK DEFENSE IS A REALLY INTERESTING THEME HERE. IF YOU ACTUALLY LOOK AT: WHERE ARE WE SEEING SPENDING AS HIGH AS THE SPENDING FROM HYPERSCALERS? IS ACTUALLY THE DEFENSE BUDGETS. THIS IS A SET OF COMPANIES THAT WHILE THEIR EARNINGS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN REALLY GOOD HAVE NOT BEEN REWARDED THIS YEAR. AS A MATTER OF FACT WE'VE SEEN SOMEWHAT OF A PULLBACK. THIS IS SOMETHING WE SEE A 10-YEAR TREND IN TERMS OF THE NEED TO RE-BUILD UP DEFENSES, RE-BILLED ARTILLERY AND A LOT OF THESE COUNTRIES HAVE TO MAKE UP FOR THE U.S. PULLBACK. ROMAINE: NELSON, GREAT TO HAVE YOU COME HEAD OF EQUITIES AT ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN KICKING US OFF TO \"THE CLOSE.\" A MODEST REBOUND OFF OF YESTERDAY'S HISTORIC LOSS. A CHECK ON THE CONSUMER, THAT INCLUDES A CONVERSATION UP AHEAD WITH THE CEO OF SWEETGREEN, WHETHER WE ARE STILL WILLING TO PAY UP FOR THOSE INCREASINGLY EXPENSIVE BOWLS. KAILEY: FROM WELLNESS TO ANIMAL HEALTH, THE CEO OF A LONG COAT JOINS US ON THE HEELS OF EARNINGS ON WHAT IS DRIVING SPENDING ON PETS. ROMAINE: WE CATCH UP WITH THE MAN BEHIND ONE OF THE BIGGEST HOTSPOT TO NEW YORK CITY NOW EXPANDING THAT EMPIRE INTO LAS VEGAS AND A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST HOW MUCH PRICE THE AFFLUENT CUSTOMER CAN TAKE. WE WILL TALK TO EUGENE REMM. ON BLOOMBERG. ♪ ROMAINE: ADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX TRYING TO GET SOME OF ITS MOJO BACK AFTER A HISTORIC DROP YESTERDAY COME A LOT OF CONCERNS RIGHT NOW ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE DATA CENTER BUILDOUT. TOP OF MIND FOR MANY INVESTORS FOLLOWING THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. WE ALREADY KNEW THERE WAS CREDIT RISK OUT THERE, AND OF COURSE THERE WAS DURATION RISK, POLICY RISK NOW SQUARELY ON THE TABLE. THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF POLICY RESEARCH AT BAIRD STRATEGIES JOINS US NOW AND I WANT TO START WITH THE MARKET THAT ON WEDNESDAY SEEMED TO CHEER THE OUTCOME OF THE U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS. ON THURSDAY TOOK A DECIDEDLY DIFFERENT STANCE. TODAY IT IS A LOT OF FENCE RIDING AS A LOT OF PEOPLE TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHAT ARE THE POLICY RISKS. WHAT IS RISK NUMBER ONE? JEANETTE: THIS ELECTION WAS ALL ABOUT AFFORDABILITY AND DATA CENTERS SO YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND POLITICIANS ARE GOING TO MAKE CHANGES BASED ON THOSE TWO ISSUES WHEN THEY COME INTO OFFICE NEXT YEAR. DATA CENTERS, THE BIGGER CHANGES WILL BE AT STATE AND LOCAL LEVELS. WE HAD SEVERAL DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES TAKE OVER IN KEY STATES. THAT WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DATA CENTER TRADE. TEXAS, GEORGIA, OHIO, EVEN IOWA. THAT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO SEE WHAT KIND OF CHANGES THEY ARE LOOKING FOR. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIALLY CHANGES AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL, TOO, BUT AT THE STATE LEVEL YOU ARE LOOKING AT CHANGES TO TAX EXEMPTIONS AT THE STATE LEVEL FOR DATA CENTERS, CHANGES TO, DO THEY HAVE TO INCREASE ELECTRICITY COSTS? IF THEY HAVE TO PAY FOR THE ELECTRICITY COSTS AND MAKE SURE CONSUMERS ARE NOT PAYING FOR IT. UNION LABOR, THINGS OF THAT NATURE. THE NEW TEXAS GOVERNOR IS NOT THAT SHE IS DOING A MORATORIUM WRIT LARGE, SHE'S DOING A MORATORIUM UNTIL LEGISLATIVE CHANGES CAN BE BETTER PROTECTIONS FOR CONSUMERS. YOU WILL PROBABLY SEE OTHER CHANGES IN OTHER STATES. THAT MEANS THERE WILL PROBABLY BE FEWER DATA CENTERS BEING BUILT. THEY WILL HAVE TO BE BUILT MORE EXPENSIVELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER COSTS. AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL THEY WILL LOOK TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE TAX EXEMPTIONS THAT DATA CENTERS HAD BEEN ABLE TO AVAIL THEMSELVES. ON THIS DEPRECIATION AND OPPORTUNITY ZONES, THAT IS SOMETHING THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WILL LOOK TO DO. ROMAINE: I'M CURIOUS, BASED ON WHAT YOU LAID OUT IN TERMS OF WHAT WE COULD SEE FROM THE GROUND UP AT THE LOCAL LEVEL ALTHOUGH THE WAY UP FROM THE TOP DOWN AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL, IS THERE ROOM TO MANEUVER FOR SOME OF THESE COMPANIES WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THEY LOCATE SOME OF THESE DATA CENTERS? I GUESS MY QUESTION IS, IS THIS GOING TO BE A REAL SLOWDOWN IN THE BUILDOUT OR A CURBING OF THE BUILDOUT, OR ARE WE GOING TO START TO SEE, I GUESS, COMPANY SEEK OUT OTHER JURISDICTIONS THAT MIGHT BE FRIENDLIER, IF THOSE EXIST? JEANETTE: EXACTLY. I THINK THE BIGGEST THING TO NOTE IS TEXAS, OHIO, AND IT GEORGIA ARE SUPPOSED TO ACCOUNT FOR 50% OF THE NEW BUILDOUT IN DATA CENTERS. THAT MEANS EITHER THEY CAN CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THOSE STATES WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS, THAT MIGHT MEAN THAT THE ZONING AREAS THAT THEY ARE ALLOWED TO ACTUALLY BUILD WILL CHANGE. AND MAYBE THAT THEY MOVE TO OTHER STATES, AND MAYBE THAT THEY JUST PAY THOSE TAXES AND DO THE OTHER CONDITIONS THE STATES ARE LOOKING FOR. AGAIN, THERE'S GOING TO BE RESTRICTIONS ON THE DATA CENTERS BUT THIS IS NOT AN END TO THE DATA CENTER TRADE. JUST THEY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO WHERE THEY CAN BUILD, HOW THEY CAN BUILD, AND THEY WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO PAY HOW MUCH DOES GET DONE GOING FORWARD. >> PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCED THAT STEPHEN MILLER WILL BE TAKING OVER THE CHIEF OF STAFF ROLE. I RAISE THIS BECAUSE ONE COULD READ THE MOVE AS A WHITE HOUSE AND A PRESIDENT THAT'S PETITIONING TO BE MORE ADVERSARIAL AGAINST A DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS COME JANUARY. KNOWING COMPROMISE WILL BE REQUIRED ON ISSUES LIKE GOVERNMENT FUNDING, THE DEBT CEILING, HOW DO YOU INTERPRET THAT MOVE AND THE POTENTIAL FISCAL REX -- RISKS ON THE HORIZON? JEANETTE: AFTER EVERY MIDTERM DEPART. TRUMP'S CHOICE IS GOING TO BE IMPORTANT FOR MESSAGING COMING OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE FACT THAT HE'S PICKING SOMEONE WHO'S BEEN ONE OF HIS MORE STRIDENT POLICY ADVISORS. HE WILL HAVE A PART TO PLAY. THERE DOES HAVE TO BE COMPROMISE AT SOME POINT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE BUDGET. DEMOCRATS WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY GET POLICIES IN. THEY WILL BE LOOKING AT AREAS AT WHERE THEY CAN GET THE PRESIDENT TO AGREE WITH THEM. THE PRESIDENT WILL HAVE TO ABIDE BY THAT IF THEY WANT HIGHER DEFENSE SPENDING. THEY WILL HAVE TO GIVE INTO DEMOCRAT DEMANDS. REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS WILL WANT TO GET THINGS DONE. 60 VOTES FOR THE BUDGET AND DEBT CEILING. DOESN'T MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO SEE SOME ACRIMONY BETWEEN THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS STILL GOING TO BE OPPORTUNITY FOR POLICY TO GET DONE AND WE SHOULDN'T DISCOUNT THAT GETTING FORWARD. ROMAINE: ON THE FISCAL SIDE, WE HAVE A LOOSE END IN THE LAME-DUCK SESSION. A LOT OF INVESTORS LOOKING TO THE DECEMBER 11 DEADLINE. DO YOU THINK THE REPUBLICANS WILL BE AMENABLE DURING THE LAME-DUCK SESSION OR WE SHUT DOWN AND THEN FIGURE EVERYTHING OUT ON JANUARY 3? JEANETTE: IT'S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WOULD BE A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AFTER WE SEE HOW PAINFUL THE LAST ONE WAS. GENERALLY, THE NEW CONGRESS, ESPECIALLY IF THERE WAS A DECISIVE CHANGE IN LEADERSHIP IN ONE OR BOTH OF THE PARTIES, THE PARTY AT -- IN POWER WILL SAY THEY WANT MORE CONTROL OF THE BUDGET GOING FORWARD. IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT WE SEE THE CURRENT CONGRESS PUT THE NEW CONGRESS INTO THE NEW YEAR SO THEY WILL HAVE MORE SAY FOR FY 27. THEY WILL BE LOOKING TO PUT THEIR MARK ON THAT GOING INTO EARLY SPRING, LAYING OUT THEIR POLICY PRIORITIES AND FIGURING OUT, WHAT ARE THE THINGS THEY CAN GET COMPROMISE ON THAT THEY CAN ATTACH TO THE BUDGET? WE DO HAVE FISCAL POLICY PUSHING INTO EARLY NEXT YEAR RATHER THAN GETTING IT DONE THIS YEAR. KAILEY: APPRECIATE YOU JOINING US. COMING UP, THE CEO OF FIGS. A COMPANY BRINGING A SENSE OF STYLE TO HEALTH CARE WORKERS AROUND THE WORLD. THIS IS THE CLOSE ON BLOOMBERG. ♪ ROMAINE: MIGHT NOT BE A HOUSEHOLD NAME FOR EVERY CONSUMER BUT DON'T TELL THAT TO HEALTH CARE WORKERS. THE MAKER OF MEDICAL SCRUBS DEVELOPING A HUGE FOLLOWING WITH DOCTORS AND NURSES. THE LATEST EARNINGS REPORT IS OUT IN THIRD-QUARTER EARNINGS ARE BACKING THAT UP. FOURTH STRAIGHT QUARTER OF 25% REVENUE GROWTH. THE CEO JOINING US RIGHT NOW HERE IN STUDIO TWO. GREAT TO SEE YOU HERE. >> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. ROMAINE: WE WERE JUST PLAYING A LITTLE BIT OF THE PITT. LET'S TALK NUMBERS. 26% IN THE MOST RECENT QUARTER. INTERNATIONAL REVENUE IS UP. NON-SCRUB REVENUE UP 35%. WORKERS. BUT WE'VE SEEN A CERTAIN FANDOM FOR THIS BRAND TRICKLE OUT FROM BEYOND THAT. WHAT'S GOING ON? >> EXACTLY RIGHT. IT IS HEALTH CARE PROFESSIONALS THAT LOVE OUR SCRUBS. THEY LOVE FIGS AND THEY ARE ADDING ON ALL THESE OTHER PIECES. IT HAS BECOME A LAYERING SYSTEM. UNDER SCRUBS AND COMPRESSION STOCKS -- SOCKS TO OUTERWEAR. TO WORK, FROM WORK, ON SHIFT, HEAD TO TOE. WE ARE HERE TO SUPPORT THE COMMUNITY AND YOU SEE THAT IN THE NUMBERS. ROMAINE: 25% GROWTH IS GREAT. HISTORICALLY, THAT WON'T BE SUSTAINABLE. BASED ON YOUR GUIDANCE, YOU ARE GUIDING DOWN TO A 15 GROWTH RATE HERE. HAVE YOU TALKED WITH YOUR TEAM LONG-TERM? TRINA: WE FEEL GOOD ABOUT OUR MOMENTUM AND THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THAT. WHAT YOU SEE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER IS THAT OUR DEMAND IS OUTSTRIPPING OUR SUPPLY. AS WE CONTINUE TO GET INTO BETTER INVENTORY POSITION, YOU WILL SEE THAT IN THE RESULTS GOING FORWARD. I THINK IT'S A GREAT PLACE TO BE. TWO-YEAR STACK OF OVER 50%. FEEL REALLY GOOD ABOUT OUR MOMENTUM AND HOW WE WILL STAY IN -- SUSTAIN THAT GOING FORWARD. KAILEY: HOW MUCH OF THAT IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE LABOR DRIVERS ARE IN THE ECONOMY? ONCE AGAIN, HEALTH CARE WAS A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR AS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING CONSISTENTLY. HOW DEPENDENT ARE YOU ON THAT WORKFORCE CONTINUING TO GROW? TRINA: IT'S A GREAT PLACE TO BE. FAT -- HEALTH CARE JOBS ARE THE FASTEST GROWING ECONOMY. 37% OF ALL NEW JOBS WILL BE HEALTH CARE. REALLY FEEL GOOD ABOUT NOT JUST HOW WE EXECUTE AS A COMPANY FROM OUR PRODUCTS TO OUR MARKETING BUT ALSO THE TAILWINDS IN TERMS OF THE INDUSTRY AND WHERE WE SIT IN THE OVERALL ECONOMY. MANY PEOPLE THINK IT'S CONSUMER BUT HEALTH CARE, THE CENTER OF HEALTH CARE AND SERVING THE PEOPLE PROVIDING THE CARE TO WAS PEOPLE IS A GREAT PLACE TO BE. KAILEY: SUPPLY STILL BEING OUTSTRIPPED BY THAT. WHAT ARE THE BIG BOTTLENECKS IN MANAGING THAT INVENTORY? TRINA: YEAH. THAT'S WHAT THE TEAM IS ON. REALLY BRINGING IN ENOUGH GEAR, ENOUGH PRODUCT TO SERVE THE COMMUNITY. OUR GOAL IS HELPING HEALTH CARE PROFESSIONALS PERFORM AT THEIR BEST. WE NEED THE PRODUCT STARTING WITH THE UNIFORM. THEY ARE COMING BACK OVER AND OVER AGAIN TO REPLENISH. WE NEED THE PRODUCT IN STOCK SO THEY CAN DO THAT WELL. WE ARE BRINGING IN MORE GOODS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT YEAR, WE WILL BE IN A HEALTHY POSITION. EVEN WITH THAT, THE HARDEST INVENTORY POSITION IS Q4 AND THAT IS INCORPORATED IN THE GUIDE. ROMAINE: I KNOW THERE WAS CONTROVERSY OVER YOUR PREVIOUS SOURCE OF YOUR MANUFACTURING OUT OF DORTON. IS THAT CORRECT? HAS THAT BEEN A CONSTRAINT ON YOUR ABILITY TO MATCH SUPPLY WITH DEMAND? TRINA: WE ARE A SUPER YOUNG COMPANY. WE'VE BEEN VERY AGILE IN SHIFTING OUR SUPPLIERS. WE JUST OPENED ANOTHER FEW FACILITIES IN INDONESIA. EXCITED ABOUT OUR PARTNERSHIPS OVERSEAS. FEEL GOOD ABOUT OUR POSITION TODAY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET BETTER FROM HERE FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE. KAILEY: HOW MUCH INFLUENCE IS THE PITT FOR BUSINESS? I DO NOT WATCH THE SHOW. I'VE SEEN A LOT ON SOCIAL MEDIA. IT FEELS LIKE A LOT OF PEOPLE LIKE THE SHOW. HOW DOES IT TRANSLATE INTO BUSINESS? TRINA: NOAH WILEY IS OUR BRANDON FASTENER. HE'S INCREDIBLE. KAILEY: JUST NAMED SEXIEST MAN ALIVE. TRINA: SIX OF OUR AMBASSADORS AND PEOPLE MAGAZINE ALONGSIDE THAT SPREAD ON NOAH TO REALLY SAY THAT THESE ARE THE PEOPLE DOING THE WORLD'S HARDEST WORK. HE'S BEEN A PHENOMENAL PARTNER TO US AND THE PITT IS A PHENOMENAL SHOW. ROMAINE: DID YOU GUYS MAKE A TAXI OVER HIM? -- TECH SEDO FOR HIM? [LAUGHTER] IT'S ONE THING TO BE IN THE CULTURAL ZEITGEIST. HOW DO YOU MAKE SURE YOU CAPITALIZE ON THAT SO WE ARE NOT JUST MAKING JOKES ABOUT IT BUT PEOPLE ARE GOING TO YOUR STORES AND BUYING STUFF? TRINA: NOLA CAME TO US AND SAID, CAN YOU MAKE A TALK SEDO AS COMFORTABLE AS MY SCRUBS THAT I WEAR EVERY DAY ON SET? WE DID THAT FOR THAT MOMENT. HE THANKED EVERY HEALTH CARE WORK AROUND THE COUNTRY FOR ALL THAT THEY DID. IT WAS AN INCREDIBLE MOMENT. PUTTING HEALTH CARE PREVENTER SHUTTLES -- PROFESSIONALS. TRANSLATING THAT INTO OUR BUSINESS, THAT IS NOT SOMETHING WE WORRY ABOUT. IT WAS A GREAT MOMENT. ROMAINE: REALLY APPRECIATE YOU BEING HERE TODAY. CEO OF FIGS, FRESH OFF OF THE COMPANY'S EARNINGS REPORT. WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE BROADER MARKET. TRYING TO REGAIN MOJO AFTER THE BIG SELLOFF YESTERDAY OR GET TRYING TO REGAIN ITS MOJO AFTER A LOT OF CONCERNS -- YESTERDAY. TRYING TO REGAIN ITS MOJO IS SWEET GRAIN. THE RESULTS ARE GOOD. WE WILL TALK TO THE CEO AFTER WE COME BACK FROM THE BREAK, RIGHT HERE ON BLOOMBERG. ♪ ROMAINE: SWEETGREEN IT SHARES IN THE GREEN TODAY AFTER REPORTING A REVENUE BEAT. THE COMPANY SAYS SALES ARE STARTING TO RECOVER FOLLOWING THE CYCLOSPORA OUTBREAK THE SUMMER THAT WASN'T DIRECTLY RELATED TO ITS STORES BUT DID CAUSE A DROP IN TRAFFIC. THE COMPANY NOW EXPECTS SAME STORES SALES GROWTH OF 4% NEXT QUARTER, AND NOW SAYS THE FULL YEAR AND THINKS HE CAN ACTUALLY GET BACK UP TO A DROP OF 5.5 PERCENT, WHICH IS A MATERIAL IMPROVEMENT OVER ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A DROP OF AROUND EIGHT. JONATHAN NEMAN JOINS US, THE COFOUNDER AND CEO OF SWEETGREEN. THE OCTOBER NUMBERS, WHICH YOU SAY ACTUALLY ROSE ABOUT 5%, DID WHAT YOU SEE IN OCTOBER, DOES THAT CARRY OVER INTO THE CURRENT MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER? JONATHAN: GOOD TO SEE YOU, A LOT HAS CHANGED SINCE WE SAW YOU IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CYCLOSPORA OUTBREAK. IT'S GOOD TO SEE THE TEAM WORKING HARD TO DELIVER SALES AND WORK ON A GREAT CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE. A LOT OF THE MOMENTUM IS BUILDING. I MENTIONED ON THE CALL THAT SEPTEMBER THINGS REALLY STARTED TO PICK UP. WE GOT COMP TO FLAT. OCTOBER WE HAD ABOUT A 5% COMP. WE DID SEE A PICKUP IN THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER. WE ARE VERY ENCOURAGED BY THE MOMENTUM WE ARE SEEING, BUT STILL RECOGNIZE THERE IS A LOT MORE WORK TO DO. ROMAINE: BE VERY CLEAR, OBVIOUSLY THERE WAS NO LINK TO SWEETGREEN WITH REGARDS TO THE CYCLOSPORA OUTBREAK, BUT IT DIDN'T AFFECT YOU AND A LOT OF YOUR PEERS. YOU QUANTIFIED IT AS A 500 BASIS POINT DROP IN FOOT TRAFFIC AS A RESULT OF THAT. HOW MANY OF THOSE FOLKS DO YOU THINK YOU'VE GOTTEN BACK INTO THE SWEETGREEN ECOSYSTEM, AND HOW MANY MIGHT BE GONE PERMANENTLY? JONATHAN: WE'VE BEEN VERY ENCOURAGED BY THE REACTIVATION OF OUR LAPSED USERS. SO MANY OF OUR CUSTOMERS WE HADN'T SEEN IN ABOUT 90 DAYS HAVE RETURNED, SO WE FEEL REALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT THE RECOVERY. BEYOND THAT I THINK WHAT YOU'RE SEEING IN THE SALES MOMENTUM IS GREATER FREQUENCY FROM OUR EXISTING GUESTS, MORE NEW CUSTOMERS, AND A HUGE UPTICK ON LAPSED CUSTOMERS. WE ARE SEEING MOMENTUM ACROSS ALL CHANNELS, ACROSS ALL MARKETS. OBVIOUSLY THE COMPANY HAD A CHALLENGING YEAR LEADING UP TO IT, BUT I THINK WE REALLY FOCUSED ON THE FUNDAMENTALS OF DELIVERING A GREAT EXPERIENCE, DRIVING THROUGHPUT, GREAT MENU INNOVATION THAT'S REALLY RESONATING, AND ITS LEADING TO SOME REALLY NICE SALES MOMENTUM. KAILEY: ARE YOU SEEING WITH MENU ITEMS MORE MATERIAL COST SENSITIVITY FOR CONSUMERS THAT HAVE BEEN OBVIOUSLY FACING A NUMBER OF PRICE HEADWINDS? I SAW YOU ARE EXPECTING A 3% PRICE INCREASE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. DO EXPECT DEMAND WILL TAKE A HIT OR IS THAT SOMETHING A SWEETGREEN CUSTOMERS WILLING TO PAY UP FOR? JONATHAN: EARLIER THIS YEAR WE INTRODUCED WRAPS AT A LOWER PRICE POINT, STARTING AT $11 OR $12 IN MANY MARKETS. WHILE WE CUT A 3% PRICE INCREASE, WE ARE SEEING ONLY 1% CHECK INCREASE BECAUSE OF A NUMBER OF LOWER-PRICED ITEMS WE BROUGHT ON THE MENU. SO FAR WE'VE SEEN ZERO SENSITIVITY TO THAT. WE HAVE BEEN VERY JUDICIOUS ABOUT PRICE AND HAVE BEEN RUNNING LESS PRICE THAN OUR PEERS OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS. THE OTHER THING THAT WE NOTED IN THE CALL IS WE SAW THE BEST VALUE PERCEPTION SCORES WE'VE SEEN IN OVER THREE YEARS THIS QUARTER. SO I THINK A LOT OF THE WORK WE'VE DONE, WHETHER IT BE INCREASING PROTEIN PORTIONS BY 25%, INCREASING FOOD QUALITY, BETTER EXPERIENCE OVERALL, AND SOME OF THE ANCHOR PRICING AROUND BOTH THE WRAPS AND ALSO TOOK DOWN PRICING ON A FEW CORE ITEMS -- LIKE THE KALE CHICKEN CAESAR. NO YOU HAVE A WAY TO GET INTO SWEETGREEN FOR $11, $12, 13 DOLLARS AND HAVE MORE PREMIUM ITEMS FOR THOSE WHO WANT TO SPEND MORE. KAILEY: YOUR GEOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINT IS 10 STORES, AND YOU EXPECT TO OPEN THIS YEAR AT A SLOWER RATE NEXT YEAR, PLANNING ON FIVE PARAGUAY SLOW THE PACE OF THAT? IS IT ABOUT DOUBLING DOWN ON EXISTING MARKETS? JONATHAN: NEXT YEAR WE ARE PLANNING ON OPENING TO NEW RESTAURANTS, BUT WE DO PLAN ON CLOSING A HANDFUL OF RESTAURANTS. REALLY STORES THAT ARE MAY BE END OF LEASE WHERE WE CAN STRENGTHEN NEARBY RESTAURANTS. YESTERDAY'S GROUP -- NEXT YEAR'S REAL FOCUS IS TO CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE CORE EXPERIENCE, PERFECT THE MENU, REALLY GET THE BRAND TO BE MORE CULTURALLY RELEVANT, AND THAT'S WORKING. MOST IMPORTANTLY, FOCUS ON THAT OPERATION AND BUILD BACK WITH DISCIPLINE. IN 2028, WE DO EXPECT TO STEP UP OUR DEVELOPMENT AND OPEN MORE STORES. BY 2029 THE EXPECTATION IS TO GET TO ABOUT 10% GROWTH PER YEAR. BUT WE WANT TO OPERATE WITH DISCIPLINE, OPEN THE HIGHEST RETURN RESTAURANTS WE CAN FIND. WE'VE OPENED A LOT OF NEW RESTAURANTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS, INCLUDING A FEW NEW MARKETS THIS YEAR. WE WOULD EXPECT THAT DEN -- TO DENSIFY A MARKET FOR MANY REASONS. SUPPLY, BRAND, OPERATIONAL LEADERSHIP REASONS. ROMAINE: AS YOU MOVED DOWN THIS PATH, JONATHAN, AND AS YOU START TO LOOK HARDER AT YOUR MENU END OF THE ITEMS YOU'RE OFFERING, THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TALK AMONGST INVESTORS AS TO HOW MUCH PROGRESS YOU CAN MAKE IN BRINGING CUSTOMERS IN AFTER THE TRADITIONAL LUNCH RUSH THAT A LOT OF US ASSOCIATE WITH SWEETGREEN. WHEN YOU EXPECT TO GET A MUCH BIGGER SHARE OF YOUR REVENUE FROM THE DINNER CUSTOMER? AND DOES NOT REQUIRE MATERIAL CHANGES TO YOUR MENU? -- DOES THAT NOT REQUIRE MATERIAL CHANGES TO YOUR MENU? JONATHAN: INTO DAYS WE HAVE A RELAUNCH OF OUR SWEETGREEN PLATES CATEGORY. WE'RE INTRODUCING A NEW CHICKEN THAT'S 50% BIGGER, A ROTISSERIE-STYLE CHICKEN, KNIFE AND FORK. INSTEAD OF THE CUBED CHICKEN THAT IS MEANT TO GO INTO A BOWL IS MORE OF A PLATE-FORWARD CHICKEN. WITH THAT INTRODUCING NEW DIPS, SAUCES, UPGRADED A NUMBER OF INGREDIENTS, AND HAVE A REALLY EXCITING CAMPAIGN AROUND HOW REALLY LEANING INTO THE CULINARY AND COOKING WE DO IN OUR KITCHENS. IN ORDER TO PREPARE FOR THIS, THERE'S A LOT WE HAD TO DO, BOTH IN TERMS OF KITCHEN INFRASTRUCTURE AND, MOST IMPORTANTLY, LEADERSHIP. CULINARY LEADERSHIP INSIDE THE RESTAURANT. WE HAVE BEEN ON A YEAR-LONG CAMPAIGN TO UP-SKILL THE CHEFS AND OUR KITCHENS, MAKE SURE THEY ARE READY TO COOK MUCH MORE FOOD. THE DINNER OPPORTUNITY IS MASSIVE FOR US. THE PLATES, BOWLS CATEGORY IS ABOUT SEVEN TIMES BIGGER THAN THE SALAD CATEGORY. TODAY, DINNER, IF YOU LOOK AT SALES AFTER 5:00 P.M. FOR SWEETGREEN, IT'S ONLY -- OF OUR SALES PICK THERE'S A HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR US TO CAPTURE MORE SALES THAT THERE WILL BE A BIG PUSH INTO THAT WHICH WE ARE VERY EXCITED FOR. STAY TUNED FOR THAT. ROMAINE: JONATHAN, WE HAVE TO LEAVE IT THERE. OUR CAMERAS BEHIND THE COUNTER, CAN SEE EXACTLY HOW IT'S DONE. ALWAYS APPRECIATE YOU TAKING TIME, MAN. ABSOLUTELY, JONATHAN. A JONATHAN NEMAN, CO-FOUNDER, CEO OF SWEETGREEN. WHEN WE COME BACK, WE WILL TURN OUR ATTENTION TO ANIMAL HEALTH. YOU LIKE PETS? KAILEY: I DO. I HAVE A DOG MYSELF. ROMAINE: OUR PRODUCER DOESN'T LIKE THEM. WE LOVE THEM. SO DOES ONE OF THE BIGGEST ANIMAL HEALTH CARE COMPANIES OUT THERE. THEY HAD A BIG TOP AND BOTTOM LINE MEET. -- TOP AND BOTTOM LINE BEAT. THE CEO JOINS US ON THE CLOTHES ON BLOOMBERG. -- ON THE CLOSE ON BLOOMBERG. ♪ KAILEY: OUR STOCK OF THE HOUR IS ELANCO ANIMAL HEALTH, SHARES JUMPING BY A PERCENT AFTER THE COMPANY REPORTED THIRD-QUARTER EARNINGS THAT BEAT AND RAISED ITS FULL-YEAR OUTLOOK. JOINING US NOW LIVE FOR MORE IS JEFF SIMMONS, ELANCO'S PRESIDENT AND CEO. JEFF, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. YOU ARE SEEING MOMENTUM NOW IF YOU FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS OUTLOOK RAISE. WHAT IS IT BEING DRIVEN BY? PRICING? ACTUAL VOLUMES? BOTH? JEFFREY: STRONG GROWTH, BEAT AND RAISE ACROSS THE BOARD, AND YES, IT WAS A HIGH-QUALITY QUARTER. DEFINITELY OUR BEST SINCE THE IPO. MAYBE OUR BEST YEAR. PAT FARM INTERNATIONAL U.S. AND PRICE AND VOLUME ACROSS THE BOARD. 17% GROWTH IN INTERNATIONAL PET, 13% GROWTH IN THE U.S.. 5% PRICE GROWTH AS WELL. AND IN THE CATTLE BUSINESS, DAIRY, BEEF, THE CYCLE THEY ARE, 17% GROWTH. VERY STRONG TOP LINE, 300 BASIS POINTS ON THE BOTTOM LINE, AND FOR THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE DROPPED BELOW THREE TIMES MET LEVERAGE RATIO. HIGH-QUALITY QUARTER, EXECUTING WELL IN A VERY WE BELIEVE DURABLE MARKET. WE BELIEVE WE ARE A STOCK OF CHOICE RIGHT NOW IN A DYNAMIC TIME. KAILEY: I'M GLAD YOU BRING UP CATTLE BECAUSE I USUALLY SPEND MY TIME COVERING POLITICS AND HAVE SPENT A LOT OF TIME RECENTLY TALKING BOUT BEEF PRICES AND THE RE-INVESTMENT INTO THE AMERICAN HERD. HOW WAS THAT TRANSLATING INTO YOUR BUSINESS AND WOULD BENEFIT DO YOU THINK YOU WILL REAP BY POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE HERD SIZE OVER THE YEARS TO COME? JEFF: ANYONE CAN SAY JUST LIKE THE HUMANIZATION OF PETS WE ARE DRIVEN BY A SECOND TREND, THE IMPORTANCE OF ANIMAL PROTEIN TO WELLNESS AND DIETS. IT IS CAUSING A LOW MID SINGLE DIGIT INCREASE IN ANIMAL NUMBERS. POULTRY, PIGS, DAIRY IS REALLY GROWING, AND THAT THERE IS A BEEF SHORTAGE BUT I START BY LOOKING AT ALL OF PROTEIN. FARMERS AROUND THE WORLD. A HEALTHY ANIMAL IS A MORE PRODUCTIVE ANIMAL, WHICH MAKES MORE AFFORDABLE AND HIGHER QUALITY PROTEIN. THAT'S OUR JOB. FROM FOOD SAFETY, TO PRODUCTIVITY, TO THE PREVENTION OF DISEASE. THAT'S OUR GOAL. THE BEEF SHORTAGE OVERALL IS GOING TO HAVE A GLOBAL EFFECT. MORE BEEF BEING PRODUCED AROUND THE WORLD. THE NEXT GENERATION LIKES BEEF AND IS DEMANDING MORE OF IT. THE CATTLE CYCLE IS GOING TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IT IS IMPROVING. WE SAW 1% IMPROVEMENT IN HERD NUMBERS. IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS WE WILL GET BEEF BACK TO THE LEVEL OF SUPPLY BUT HEALTH IS A KEY DRIVER TO CREATE THE PRODUCTIVITY AND THE QUALITY THAT'S BEING DEMANDED RIGHT NOW. WE ARE SEEING REALLY -- 17%. THE FASTEST GROWING SPECIES FOR US RIGHT NOW IS CATTLE. ROMAINE: WE SAW THAT ON THE REVENUE SIDE AND THE CLIENTS ON THE POULTRY SIDE, BUT THE POINT ABOUT SOME OF THE PR -- THE PRICE PRESSURE ON THE CONSUMER LEVEL, THE FARMER, HIMSELF OR HERSELF, HOW DOES THAT AFFECT YOUR PRICING DECISIONS AND DO YOU THINK YOU STILL HAVE PRICING POWER ON THE CATTLE SIDE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT? JEFF: I THINK ACROSS THE BOARD GLOBALLY THERE'S GOING TO BE CYCLES BETWEEN THE SPECIES, DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHIES ON THE FARM ANIMAL SIDE, BUT IT'S A GROWING BUSINESS SINGLE DIGIT FOR QUITE A FEW DECADES. THESE TRENDS ARE GOING TO RESONATE. WE CREATE PRODUCTIVITY FROM THE HEALTH. OUR VALUE PROPOSITION IS STRONGER TODAY THAN IT WAS TWO YEARS AGO. THINK ABOUT WITH FEED COST, DIESEL COST. TO A FARMER, THE MORE PRODUCTIVE THE ANIMAL CAN BE, THE GREATER THE RETURN. TODAY, WE HAVE PRICING POWER. ULTIMATELY WE TAKE A HOLISTIC VIEW ON VALUE TO GLOBAL FARMERS, AMERICAN FARMERS. 70 YEARS SERVING FARMERS. NEVER HAD A GREATER VALUE POSITION THAN WE DO TODAY. ROMAINE: LET'S SHIFT OVER BACK TO PETS AND THE CONSUMER THERE WHO IS ALSO STRETCHED. WE HAVE SEEN THAT IN THE OFFICIAL DATA. YOU TRY TO STEER INVESTORS AWAY FROM JUST LOOKING AT THE NARRATIVE TRAFFIC AND PRICING AS A READ ON THAT. HOW DO YOU VIEW THE STRENGTH OF THE CUSTOMER AND THEIR ABILITY AND WILLINGNESS TO CONTINUE TO PAY FOR YOUR PRODUCTS? JEFF: WE ARE LISTENING TO THE CONSUMER AND THE PET OWNER MORE THAN EVER, THE VETERINARIANS AROUND THE WORLD. OUR RESULTS ARE DEMONSTRATING WHAT WE SAW IN THE MARKET RESEARCH THAT WE PUT OUT TODAY. IN LATE OCTOBER, WE SURVEYED 2000 PET OWNERS AND WE SAW CLEARLY OVER 92% SAID THEY SPENT THE SAME OR MORE ON PET HEALTH. OTHER ITEMS, PET FOOD, OTHER THINGS HAVE DECLINED THAT WE HAVE SEEN RESILIENCY. THE LANCOME FIVE YEARS AGO, WE ARE THE LARGEST ANIMAL HEALTH COMPANY THAT CAN SERVE MORE PET OWNERS OR PRICE POINTS, FROM A DOLLAR STORE TO A VET CLINIC. WE SEE THE RESILIENCY THERE. THE WILLINGNESS TO SPEND IS THE METRIC. ROMAINE: ALWAYS APPRECIATE IT. JEFF SIMMONS. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> WE'VE BEEN CHASING THE ROTATION FOR A WHILE. ONE OF THE THINGS WE'VE BEEN SAYING IS, IN THE ERA OF HIGHER RATES, WE NEED QUALITY AS AN ANCHOR. WE NEED TO BE SEEKING DIVERSIFICATION AND WAYS OF REDUCING VOLATILITY. ROMAINE: HEAD OF EQUITIES AT ALLIANZ, KICKING US OFF ABOUT 15 MINUTES AGO. AN ATTEMPT TO CLAW BACK SOME OF THE LOSSES FROM YESTERDAY. VALIANT EFFORT WITH TECH STOCKS LEADING THE CHARGE. A LITTLE FADE IN SOME OF THE NAMES. KAILEY: IT'S NOT YET A FULL COME BACK BECAUSE THE LOSSES YESTERDAY WERE BRUISING. FOR TENS OF 1% ON THE S&P 500, ONLY GOING A LITTLE WAYS. SOX INDEX REBOUNDS LESS THAN 4% ON THIS FRIDAY. IT WILL END THE WEEK WITH ITS WORST WEEK GOING BACK TO APRIL 2025, THE LIBERATION DAY TARIFFS CARE. WE SAW A MASSIVE SPIKE IN VOLATILITY YESTERDAY. 25 HANDLE ON THE VIX. AFTER THE JOBS REPORT, YOU SAW AN INITIAL SELLOFF IN BONDS. THAT HAS MODERATED AS WE WENT THROUGH THE DAY. TWO BASIS POINTS. ROMAINE: LOOKING AROUND THE CORNER, THE CALENDAR IS A LITTLE LIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO EARNINGS. CONSEQUENTIAL ECONOMIC DATA WITH THE CPI AND PPI REPORTS LATER -- NEXT WEEK. FOR THE MOST PART, THE MARKET IS LEFT TO ITS OWN DEVICES TO DIGEST EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED. SENIOR CLIENT ADVISOR AT JUST -- JET TRUST JOINS US. >> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. ROMAINE: AI TRADE SEEMS TO BE THE ONE THAT THE MARKET IS FOCUSED IN ON. THE IDEA OF A SLOWDOWN IN THE AI BUILDOUT BECAUSE OF NEW POTENTIAL POLICY RESTRAINTS. IS THAT JUST A KNEE-JERK REACTION OR IS THAT REAL? >> IF YOU ARE SURVEYING FOLKS AT HOME, ABOUT 70% OF THE FOLKS ARE NOT IN FAVOR OF THE DATA CENTERS IN THEIR BACKYARD. ESPECIALLY THE PRESSURE ON ENERGY, BOTH BECAUSE OF THE DATA CENTER ROLLOUT AND ALSO BECAUSE OF GEOPOLITICS, IS COMPLETELY UNFAVORABLE FOR VOTERS. IF WE CAN SEE SOME OF THE ENERGY PRICES COME DOWN, WE'VE SEEN SOME OF THAT, IF WE CAN RESOLVE THE GEO-POLITICAL CONFLICTS, WE CAN FOCUS ON WHAT THE AI BUILDOUT LOOKS LIKE. IT'S MORE LIKELY TO BE A MORE MEASURED PACE, WE THINK. WE DON'T THINK AI IS GOING AWAY. ROMAINE: DOES THAT HABIT -- HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A GOOD THING FOR SOME OF THESE STOCKS? IF THERE IS A MATERIAL POLICY PUSHBACK THAT SLOWS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AT LEAST THEY HAVE SOMETHING THEY CAN DRAW UPON. MIMI: THAT'S RIGHT. WE WILL SEE WINNERS AND LOSERS. OVERALL, WE SHOULD BE THINKING OF A LONGER TIMELINE. HOPEFULLY LESS SCARCITY. RIGHT NOW, FULL ON GRAB. I THINK IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO PLAY OUT. KAILEY: THIS NOTION OF AN EASING IN THE COMPETITION FOR CAPITAL, IF YOU ARE NO LONGER GOING TO SEE THE KIND OF RUSH TO THE EQUITY MARKETS TO BE ABLE TO FACILITATE AS MUCH BUILDOUT AS POSSIBLE. WHO WOULD REAP THE REWARD OF THAT? MIMI: IN TERMS OF WHO THE WINNERS WOULD BE OUT OF THE EQUITY SPACE? KAILEY: YEAH. JUST HAVING ACCESS. MIMI: WE'VE BEEN PLAYING THE FULLY DIVERSIFIED. LOOK. IN TERMS OF IF WE SEE A WEAKER DOLLAR, AS RATES HAVE COME DOWN, THAT HAS GENERATED A WEAKER DOLLAR. THAT'S BEEN BETTER FOR SOME COMMODITIES AND NON-US EQUITIES. WE THINK THAT COULD BE A PLACE TO HIDE IF YOU WILL. WE LIKE THE BROADENING TRADE. RIGHT NOW, THE TOP 10 NAMES IN THE S&P ARE CLOSE TO 40% OF THE INDEX. YOU HAVE A LOT OF CONCENTRATION THERE. I THINK IT REALLY WILL BE FIGURING OUT OVER TIME THE SPEED OF THE AI ROLLOUT. ROMAINE: WHAT SUPPORTS THE BROADENING SIDE OF IT? NORMALLY, THE LAGGARDS WERE MORE ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE. THEY WERE THE ONES THAT WERE GETTING BATTED AROUND BY POLICIES, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, INTEREST RATES. HAS THAT CHANGED? MIMI: YES. WE HAD INTEREST RATES. IN SEPTEMBER, WE SAW THE FED HIKE. WE ARE BACK TO UNDER TWO OVER THE NEXT YEAR. I THINK THE ENERGY COMPLEX, IF WE CAN SETTLE DOWN ON THE RIGHT SIDE, YOU WILL SEE THE -- RATE SIDE, RATE SENSITIVE EQUITIES COULD PERFORM BETTER. I THINK A LOT OF THINGS CHANGE IF WE DON'T SEE ALL THE MICE GOING THROUGH THE LITTLE DOOR AT THE SAME TIME AND WE NEED TO FUND THIS MASSIVE BUILDOUT IN SUCH A SHORT WINDOW. ROMAINE: ECONOMIC DATA TODAY ON THE JOBS FRONT WHICH WAS GOOD. IT'S JUST ONE REPORT. 106 T 5000 JOBS AND MOST PEOPLE WERE EXPECTING HALF OF THAT. INFLATION CERTAINLY NOT CONTAINED BUT IT'S NOT RUNAWAY EITHER. IS THE ECONOMIC BACKDROP SUPPORTIVE LONG-TERM? MIMI: IT IS. IT WASN'T JUST THE NUMBER OF JOBS. WE HAD UPWARD REVISIONS. WE HAD A 4.1% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. WE HAD THE PARTICIPATION RATE ACTUALLY GO UP. THAT HAD BEEN COMING WAY DOWN. TODAY'S REPORT WAS REALLY GOOD IN A LOT OF WAYS. TO YOUR POINT, IT'S ONE DATA POINT. THE SIX MONTHS AVERAGE IS SOMETHING LIKE 103,000 JOBS PER MONTH WHICH IS NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. BUT COMBINED WITH GDP NORTH OF 2%, WE ARE TRACKING NORTH OF 3% BY SOME METRICS FOR FOURTH-QUARTER GDP. THE BASELINE ECONOMY IS AT A PRETTY GOOD PLACE RIGHT NOW. KAILEY: THIS ALL TRACKS WITH WHAT KEVIN WARSH SAID. THE FED DOESN'T NEED TO WORRY ABOUT THE LABOR SIDE OF THE MANDATE AS MUCH. IT IS SINGULARLY FOCUSED ON INFLATION. HAS THIS ECONOMY AND MARKET PROVEN THAT IT'S QUITE RESISTANT TO THE EFFECTS OF HIGHER RATES? THE CONSUMER HAS STILL HUNG IN, THE LABOR MARKET ISN'T FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE RATE HIKE. HOW RESILIENT CAN IT STAY IN THE FACE OF POTENTIALLY HIGHER FED FUNDS? MIMI: WE WERE PRICING IN EVEN HIGHER HIGHER. NOW WE ARE PRICING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER I WOULD SAY. BUT BACK TO THE AI TRADE. AI AND THE BUILDOUT AND THE CAPEX SPEND HAS BEEN A BIG PART OF GDP GROWTH THIS YEAR. SO IF YOU WORK -- WERE TO COMPLETELY TAKE THAT AWAY, HARD STOP, YOU COULD SEE SOME ISSUES ON THE GROWTH SIDE. IT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WHY WE LIKE TO BE OVERWEIGHT THE FRONT-END OF TREASURIES. BECAUSE WE SEE THAT IF THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SLOWDOWN IN THE ECONOMY AND THE FED DOES HAVE TO AWAY FROM THE INFLATION INTO THE GROWTH SIDE, WE SEE POTENTIAL FOR EASING FROM THEIR. WE NEED TO SEE HOW THE GROWTH PICTURE PLAYS OUT FROM HERE. ROMAINE: ALWAYS GREAT TO HAVE YOU. MIMI DUFF, SENIOR CLIENT AFTERNOON. THE MAJOR IMPACTS -- INDEXES REBOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY'S SELLOFF. NOT ENOUGH TO SAVE THEM FROM PRETTY SIGNIFICANT LOSSES. THE MAJORITY OF THE STOCKS IN THE S&P 500 ARE IN THE RED. THE ONES THAT MATTER MOST ARE IN THE GREEN, LIKE NVIDIA AND TESLA. A FULL BREAKDOWN STARTS RIGHT HERE ON BLOOMBERG. >> THE CLOSING BELL. BLOOMBERG'S COMPREHENSIVE CROSS-PLATFORM COVERAGE OF THE U.S. MARKET CLOSE STARTS RIGHT NOW. ROMAINE: AND RIGHT NOW, WE ARE TWO MINUTES AWAY FROM THE END OF THE TRADING DAY. ROMAINE BOSTICK ALONGSIDE KAILEY LEINZ. IT'S A GLOBAL SIMULCAST. WELCOME TO OUR AUDIENCES ACROSS OUR BLOOMBERG PLATFORMS. CAROL: LET THE WOMAN GO HOME ALREADY. KAILEY: ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT ME? CAROL: AS MUCH AS I LOVE HAVING YOU HERE, OH MY GOODNESS. ROMAINE: THIS IS HER HOME. CAROL: I KNOW. DID YOU GET ANY SLEEP? KAILEY: SLEEP IS FOR THE WEEK. YOU KNOW THAT. THE WEEKEND IS ALMOST UPON US. IT'S HARD TO SLEEP. ROMAINE: THANK YOU FOR ASKING ABOUT ME. I'M DOING ALL RIGHT. CAROL: I WAS TALKING TO YOU OFF AIR. ROMAINE: IN ALL SERIOUSNESS, WE TALKED ABOUT THE ATTEMPTED REBOUND. ALL OF THE INDICES OPENED SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. THEY ARE OFF OF THE HIGHS OF THE DAY. THE NASDAQ INDICES UP ABOUT 1%. CAROL: ABSOLUTELY. A LOT OF THINGS, WE ARE SEEING A BOUNCE BACK. THE STOCKS DOWN 12% YESTERDAY. YEAH. GAINING 4% TODAY. ABOUT 4% TODAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF GROUND TO BE MADE UP. I GUESS THE NARRATIVE THAT NVIDIA EARNINGS SO MUCH WHEN IT COMES TO DATA CENTERS, WHAT WE HEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AND MONTHS WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE TRADE GOES NEXT. TIM: THE NASDAQ 100 ON THE WEEK RIGHT NOW, THIS IS AN INDEX THAT YESTERDAY HAD ITS WORST DAY GOING BACK TO THE DEPTHS OF THE COVID PANDEMIC. EVEN WITH TODAY'S BOUNCE HIGHER IT IS STILL DOWN 5% OF THE WEEK. THEREOF, BECAUSE THAT WILL DRIVE A LOT OF THE MARKET ACTION AND OF COURSE THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM THAT ANTHROPIC IPO THAT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. HEADLINES CROSSING THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL RIGHT NOW ON A POTENTIAL VALUATION. NOT FOR ANTHROPIC, BUT ITS MAIN RIVAL. OPENAI. ITS LATEST FUNDING ROUND CLOSING WITH COMMITMENTS AS OF FRIDAY THAT GIVES IT A VALUATION OF ABOUT 1.2 $5 TRILLION. THAT IS THE PRIVATE MARKETS. BACK TO THE PUBLIC MARKETS AS WE CLOSE OUT A RELATIVELY UP DAY THAT A SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN WEEK. WE WILL START WITH THE S&P 500, UP A .3% ON THE DAY DOWN 2.6% ON THE WEEK. THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE AND NASDAQ 100 UP ABOUT 1% ON THE DAY BUT DOWN MORE THAN 3% ON THE WEEK INCLUDING THE NASDAQ 100 DOWN 5% OVER THIS FIVE-DAY STRETCH. THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE DOWN ON THE DAY AND WEEK. SMALL CAPS COME THE RUSSELL 2000 ADDING ABOUT 24 POINTS ON THE DAY. .9% HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY BUT 2% LOWER THAN WHERE IT WAS LAST FRIDAY. CAROL: WE DID SEE SOME SELLING CLOSER TO THE CLOSING BELL. THE S&P 500, YEAH, MAY BE FINISHING SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE DAY, BUT YOU GO INSIDE THE INDEX, 18 NAMES TO THE DOWNSIDE. 180 FOUR GAINING GROUND. ONE UNCHANGED. KAILEY: ON A SECTOR BASIS YOU HAD MOST SECTORS LOWER. THE ONLY REAL MATERIAL SECTOR GAINERS ON THIS FRIDAY WERE COMMUNICATION SERVICES AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY. NO SURPRISES THE REBOUND WAS LARGELY CONCENTRATED IN TECH. PRETTY MUCH EVERYTHING WAS FLAT OR DOWN ON THE DAY AND DELETING THE LOSSES WERE THE WINNER OF THE SELLOFF ON THURSDAY ON A RELATIVE BASIS, CONSUMER STAPLES FALLING ABOUT 1.2% IN THE SESSION. CAROL: SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL GAINERS IN TODAY'S SESSION, ACTUALLY HAD A LOT TO CHOOSE FROM BUT I WILL START WITH AIRBNB. THAT ONE HAVING ITS BIGGEST GAIN, UP THE MOST SINCE AUGUST 7. QUITE A JUMP. UP ALMOST 12%, JUST SHY OF 12%. NUMBER TWO GAINER IN THE S&P AND NASDAQ 100. THE CEO SAYING HIS COMPANY IS BACK IN GROWTH MODE AFTER POSTING THE FASTEST REVENUE GAIN IN THREE YEARS AND EXPECTS THE REVENUE TO GROW IN THE HIGH TEENS. HE LIFTED ITS FULLY OR MARGIN FORECAST FOR ADJUSTED EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST, TAXES, INTEREST, TO ABOUT 36%. THERE'S ALSO A LOT IN HERE THAT IS VERY UPBEAT BUT THEY ANNOUNCED A NEW REPURCHASE AUTHORIZATION OF AS MUCH AS $12 BILLION MORE IN STOCK. WE SAW THE STOCK MOVE UP IN A BIG WAY. THE STOCK IS UP ABOUT 40% YEAR-TO-DATE. MODERNA ALSO JUMPING INTO TODAY'S SESSION UP ABOUT 5.3% PEER THE COMPANY BOOSTED ITS FULL-YEAR GUIDANCE, POSTED ITS FIRST QUARTERLY PROFITS SINCE 2024 AS COVID VACCINE SALES REBOUNDED STRONGLY FROM ONE YEAR AGO. THE COMPANY TRYING TO OPEN UP, WE KNOW, NEW SOURCES OF REVENUE AND GROWTH BY REFOCUSING ON CANCER DRUG DEVELOPMENT. WE ARE CONTINUING TO WATCH THIS YEAR FOR DEVELOPMENTS THERE. THEY DID HAVE A SUCCESSFUL DATE-STAGE A TRIAL OF A MESSENGER RNA BASED SKIN CANCER DRUG. WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THAT. MODERNA DOES ANTICIPATE FILING A U.S. MARKET APPLICATION FOR THAT CANCER DRUG BY THE END OF THE YEAR WHICH COULD LEAD TO APPROVAL NEXT YEAR IN 2020 SEVEN. STOCK IS UP 790 3% YEAR. THAT'S UNBELIEVABLE. STILL DOWN 45% FROM ITS HEIGHT IN AUGUST OF 2021. QUICKLY, LET'S BRING UP SPACEX AND TESLA. WE DID SEE INVESTORS COMING BACK INTO THOSE TWO NAMES. SPACEX UP. TESLA A GAIN OF ABOUT 4%. ELON MUSK SPEAKING AT THE BARON INVESTMENT CONFERENCE. HE SAID PAYMENTS FROM THE GOVERNMENT AGENCIES WILL MAKE UP LESS THAN 10% OF SPACEX'S REVENUE THIS QUARTER COMPARED TO 16.6% IN THE RECENT QUARTER. HE TALKED ABOUT SPACEX'S FOURTH-QUARTER REVENUE JUMPING SOMETHING LIKE 70% FROM THE PRIOR PERIOD. HE PUT OUT A LOT OF STUFF, BUT A LITTLE BIT OF A BOUNCE BACK AFTER WHAT HAS BEEN A TWO DAY ROUTE IN THESE NAMES. TIM: SPEAKING OF A ROUTE, STOCKS THAT FIT THAT DEFINITION, DRAFTKINGS FINISHED THE DAY DOWN MORE THAN 21% BASED ON EARNINGS. THE COMPANY GAVE A FORECAST FOR EARNINGS IN 2027 THAT MIST OF THE AVERAGE ANALYST ESTIMATE AND CUT ITS OUTLOOK FOR FISCAL 20 26. YOU KNOW WHY? PREDICTION MARKETS AND INVESTING IN PREDICTION MARKETS. NOT NECESSARILY COMPETITION FROM PREDICTION MARKETS BUT BUILDING A NEW PREDICTION MARKETS. I SPOKE TO THE CEO OF DRAFTKINGS EARLIER TODAY ON BLOOMBERG TECH AND HE SAID THE MONEY IS BEING USED TO ACQUIRE CUSTOMERS AND IT'S UP FROM 300 MILLION DOLLARS EARLIER IN THE YEAR. SHARES OF LIFT TAKING A HIT TODAY. THE COMPANY ISSUED A QUARTERLY RIDE BOOKINGS AND EARNINGS THAT MET EXPECTATIONS BUT POSTED A SURPRISE LOSS DUE TO AN EARLIER LEGAL SETTLEMENT DUE TO DRIVER CLASSIFICATION. TEARS FELL BY 4.2%. THE COMPANY REPORTED THAT SURPRISED NET LOSS OF $9.7 MILLION AFTER RECORDING ONE POINT -- 17.9 MILLION DOLLARS SETTLEMENT TO RESOLVE LEGAL COMPLAINTS OVER HOW IT CLASSIFIED DRIVERS IN CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 2016 AND 2020. SHARES OF UNDER ARMOUR UNDER PRESSURE IN TODAY'S TRADE. SHARES UNDER 5% AFTER THE COMPANY REDUCED ITS YEAR GROSS MARGIN FORECAST AND SAID HIGHER COSTS IN THE COMPANY'S FORECAST ADDITIONAL LOSS PER ADJUSTED OPERATING INCOME FOR A THIRD QUARTER SHOWS A MEANINGFUL SHORTFALL COMPARED TO STREET ESTIMATES PEER CHAIRS OF UNDER ARMOUR DOWN 5.2%. ROMAINE: YIELDS, WE SELL YIELDS ALSO REBOUND. BASICALLY PRICED DOWN, YIELDS UP ON THE DAY, BUT WE SHOULD POINT OUT ONCE AGAIN THIS IS MORE OF A WEEKLY STORY. YIELDS ACROSS THE CURVE ARE LOWER FOR A SIXTH STRAIGHT WEEK. YOUR TWO YEAR YIELD UP ON THE DAY BUT DOWN ON THE WEEK BY A BASIS POINT. WHO ARE BENCHMARK 10 YEAR YIELD DOWN ABOUT SEVEN BASIS POINT -- YOUR BENCHMARK 10 YEAR YIELD DOWN ABOUT SEVEN BASIS POINTS. CAROL: WE TALKED A LOT ABOUT ELON MUSK AND HIS UNIVERSE. ROMAINE: WE DID? CAROL: WE DID HERE. REST IN PEACE, THE CYBER TRUCK. ROMAINE: I THOUGHT YOU WERE GOING SOMEWHERE ELSE WITH THAT. CAROL: NO, THE CYBER TRUCK. TESLA WILL PHASE OUT. AFTER YEARS OF POOR SALES. TIM: DO YOU REMEMBER WHEN THEY UNVEILED THIS IN 2017 AND HE WAS ON STAGE AND HE TALKED ABOUT THE WINDSHIELD BEING BULLETPROOF AND HAMMER PROVEN SHATTERED? ROMAINE: IT WAS A GUY WHO THREW A SHOTPUT BALL AT IT. TIM: IT WASN'T SUPPOSED TO DO THAT. ROMAINE: A LOT OF THESE THINGS THE CAR WASN'T SUPPOSED TO DO. I KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE MAKE JOKES, WE KNOW IT IS FUGLY BUT IT GETS TO THE QUESTION OF WHAT IS TESLA NOW GOING FORWARD? TIM: THE COMPANY THAT WILL COMBINE WITH SPACEX. ROMAINE: IS IT EVEN A CAR COMPANY ANYMORE? THE IDEA THAT HE IS DISCONTINUING THIS, THEY HAVE NO REAL -- I WAS GOING TO SAY THEY HAVE NO REAL OTHER CARS COMING OUT. THE FLYING ROADSTER. KAILEY: THE CYBER CAB. ROMAINE: IT GETS TO WHAT IS TESLA GOING FORWARD? CAROL: AN AI COMPANY, THAT'S WHAT THEY'VE BEEN INVESTING IN. ROMAINE: THE MOST RECENT EARNINGS REPORT WAS LARGELY AI, THE BULK OF ITS REVENUES COMING FROM AI NOW. CAROL: PROFITABLE? ROMAINE: WELL -- NICE ONE, CAROL MASSAR. NO, BUT IT GETS TO THE IDEA OF WHAT ELON MUSK THINKS GOING FORWARD. YOU KNOW HE LIKES TO TALK ABOUT THIS, ONLY 10% OF REVENUE IS GOING TO COME FOR SPACEX FROM THE GOVERNMENT, BUT THIS IS A GUY OBVIOUSLY HAS BEEN DEPENDENT ON GOVERNMENT FOR A LOT OF THINGS. KAILEY: THAT IS SOMETHING ELON MUSK COULD FIND HIMSELF IN A LOT OF CONGRESSIONAL HEARING ROOMS BASED ON WHAT WE'VE BEEN HEARING ABOUT DEMOCRATS INTEREST IN PURSUING HIM AND HIS TIES TO THE U.S. GOVERNMENT. NOT A GREAT WEEK FOR ELON MUSK. YOU HAVE TO UNWIND THE CYBER TRUCK AND HE LIT HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ON FIRE IN TEXAS TO GET THE OUTCOME HE DIDN'T WANT IN THE MIDTERMS. ROMAINE: POTENTIAL CHANGES IN WASHINGTON AND POLICIES THAT EXISTED OR DIDN'T EXIST THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS SUPERCHARGED AT THIS MARKET IN CLOSING MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS ACTIVITY. IF YOU WANTED TO DEAL YOU PROBABLY WE WOULD GET IT DONE. A DEAL CLOSE TODAY, FOX BUYING ROKU FOR 22 BILLION DOLLARS. THE DOJ SIGNING OFF ON THAT. THAT'S RAISING A LOT OF IMPLICATIONS OF COURSE ABOUT WHAT THE STREAMING LANDSCAPE LOOKS LIKE GOING FORWARD, BUT ALSO THE IDEA OF IS THIS THE LAST OF THE BIG M&A DEALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS? KAILEY: IT COULD BE. THE DOJ FINDING IN THIS INSTANCE IT'S NOT GOING TO BE HARMFUL TO COMPETITION. THERE WAS VERY MUCH A COMPETITION FOR THE OTHER BIG MEDIA MERGER I JUST CLOSE, THE SPARE -- OF THE PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE DEAL. THEY HAD TO BE A SETTLEMENT WITH STATES. WE WILL GET THE FIRST EARNINGS REPORT FROM SKYDANCE, THE COMBINED COMPANY, ON MONDAY. HAVE A LOT TO HAVE AN ANSWER FOR INCLUDING WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO DO ABOUT COSTS AND THE MASSIVE DEBT BURDEN. ROMAINE: THE DEBT BURDEN IS REALLY THE ISSUE. I'M CURIOUS HOW THEY GET OUT FROM UNDER THAT OR FIND A WAY TO AT LEAST APPEAL TO INVESTORS TO GET THEM SOME TIME TO SORT IT ALL OUT. CAROL: DO YOU PLAY ROKU? ROMAINE: PLAY ROKU? CAROL: MY NEPHEW IS SEVEN YEARS OLD AND PLAYS ALL THESE GAMES. DO YOU KNOW IT? TIM: ROKU IS THE STREAMING BOX WE USED TO ACCESS EVERYTHING ON OUR TV'S. I'VE NEVER UNDERSTOOD THIS DEAL, I'LL BE HONEST. I'VE NEVER UNDERSTOOD. THIS COMPANY ALWAYS PRIDED ITSELF ON BEING THE SWITZERLAND OF STREAMING DEVICES. IT WOULD WORK EQUALLY WITH EVERY CONTENT PROVIDER, BUT NOW IT IS OWNED BY A CONTENT PROVIDER. ROMAINE: THE SWITZERLAND THING WAS WORKING AGAINST THEM. IT WAS A GREAT MODEL A FEW YEARS AGO, BUT NOW THERE ARE SO MANY OPTIONS FOR SET TOP BOXES, WHATEVER YOU WANT TO CALL THESE THINGS NOW. IT SEEMS THEY HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION, BUT I AGREE, IT DOES SEEM TO HAVE A CONTENT CREATOR, PROVIDER ACTUALLY OWNING THE PLATFORM ITSELF, AND WHETHER THAT ACTUALLY SCARES SOME OF THE OTHER FOLKS AWAY. CAROL: IT'S ALL ABOUT YOUTUBE, GUYS. HAVE TO SAY. ON. TIM: ♪TUBI ♪ CAROL: YOU ARE ON FIRE, WE WILL HAVE TO SEND YOU ON THE ROAD MORE OFFICE. -- MORE OFTEN. THE NEXT ONE WE GO IS A ROAD TRIP FOR ALL FOUR OF US. KAILEY: HAVE A GOOD, GOOD WEEKEND. THAT IS A WRAP A CROSS PLATFORM. KAILEY AM ROMAINE CONTINUING ON TV, TIM AND I BACK ON BW DAILY. WE WILL SEE YOU AGAIN ON MONDAY. WHAT? ROMAINE: AND WE CONTINUE OUR COVERAGE HERE ON BW, THE CLOSE, ANALYZING PRESSURES THAT ROILED MARKETS. IAN BREMMER WILL JOIN US AFTER THE BREAK HERE ON BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> THE COUNTDOWN IS ON. EVERYTHING YOU KNOW TO GET THE EDGE AT THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS THE CLOSE. ROMAINE: A MODEST REBOUND IN U.S. EQUITY MARKETS ON THIS FRIDAY, BUT NOT NEARLY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DAMAGE FROM YESTERDAY. THE S&P ADDING A GAIN OF ABOUT 0.3 PERCENT, BUT STILL GOING TO FINISH WITH ITS WORST WEEKLY LOSS WE HAVE SEEN SINCE AT LEAST JUNE OF THIS YEAR. THE NASDAQ DID NOT FARE ANY BETTER ON A WEEKLY BASIS. WE DID SEE NAMES LIKE AMD AND NVIDIA PROP UP THE NASDAQ ON THE DAY. BUT THE FOURTH STRAIGHT WEEK OF LOSSES. A LITTLE BIT OF HER SPITE -- OF RESPITE IN THE OIL SPACE. BRENT CRUDE DROPPING, ON A WEEKLY BASIS, THE BIGGEST DROP IN CRUDE OIL PRICES SINCE APRIL OF 2020. THAT IS BAD IF YOU ARE IN OIL AND GAS COMPANY. IF YOU ARE AN AIRLINE, IT IS GREAT. JETBLUE HAVING A GREAT DAY. IN FACT, A GREAT WEEK. UP MORE THAN 30% OVER THE FIVE DAY STRETCH. AIRBNB ALSO PROVIDING A BULLISH FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO TRAVEL. WE SAW ORACLE OSCILLATE BETWEEN GAINS AND LOSSES AS INVESTORS TRY TO SORT OUT WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE AI TRADE AND THE AI BUILDOUT. A REASSESSMENT THAT HAS BEEN GOING ON SINCE THE BIG ELECTION ON TUESDAY HERE IN THE U.S., AND IT IS THAT REASSESSMENT THAT IS GOING ON IN MARKETS THAT HAS BEEN A DIRECT FUNCTION OF THE REASSESSMENT BY THE 120 MILLION PLUS VOTERS WHO WENT TO THE POLLS FOR TUESDAY'S MIDTERM ELECTIONS. THAT HAS BEEN THE TOP STORY OF THE WEEK AND REMAINS OUR TOP STORY OF THE HOUR. THE ELECTION DID SHOW THAT VOTERS CAN STILL IMPOSE A POWERFUL INSTITUTIONAL CHECK. BUT THE POLITICAL QUESTION NOW IS FAR BIGGER THAN JUST WHO CONTROLS CONGRESS AND THE STATEHOUSES. DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS, STARTING JANUARY 3, WILL HAVE BROAD POWER TO BLOCK LEGISLATION, SCUTTLE TRUMP'S POLITICAL NOMINEES, LUNCH COMMITTEE INVESTIGATIONS, AND FOR SUSPENDING NEGOTIATIONS. BUT THOSE ARE DOMESTIC ISSUES. THE PRESIDENT STILL RETAINS ENORMOUS INFLUENCE OVER FOREIGN POLICY INCLUDING TARIFFS, ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, AND MILITARY ACTION. THE CALCULATION FOR INVESTORS AND WORLD LEADERS IS WHETHER THE CONSTRAINTS AND OVERSIGHT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY SEEKS TO IMPOSE WILL ACTUALLY MAKE THE REPUBLICAN-LED WHITE HOUSE MORE PRAGMATIC, OR CAUSE TRUMP TO BE EVEN MORE UNILATERAL THAN BEFORE AS HE TRIES TO DEFINE HIS LEGACY IN THE FINAL TWO YEARS OF HIS TERM. U.S. ALLIES MAY WELCOME A STRONGER CONGRESSIONAL CHECK. BUT LIKE FINANCIAL MARKETS, THOSE WORLD LEADERS CANNOT ASSUME MORE PREDICT ABILITY. CAN EUROPE RELY AGAIN ON WASHINGTON, OR SHOULD IT KEEP BUILDING STRATEGIC INDEPENDENCE? DO ISRAEL AND UKRAINE STILL FEEL A TRUE COMMITMENT FROM THE U.S. OR CHINA, RUSSIA, IRAN? WILL THEY FIND TRUMP EASIER TO BARGAIN WITH OR EASIER TO TEST? THESE ARE NOT ABSTRACT QUESTIONS. EVERYONE OF THESE JUDGMENTS EATS INTO THE MARKET FOR OIL AND GAS COMPANIES, FOR IMPORT-DEPENDENT RETAILERS, NOT TO MENTION THE EFFECTS ON THE DOLLAR, TREASURY YIELDS, AND PRECIOUS METALS. AND THIS AFFECTS THE TECH EVANGELISTS WHO STILL WANT TO SPLASH THE CASH ON THE AI BUILDOUT. WE ARE JOINED BY THE PRESIDENT AND FOUNDER OF EURASIA GROUP. I AM CURIOUS ABOUT HOW MUCH WE CAN READ INTO TUESDAY'S ELECTION, WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL CHANGE IN POLICIES COMING OUT OF WASHINGTON AND STATE HOUSES AROUND THE COUNTRY. >> I THINK THERE IS TWO DIFFERENT WAYS TO LOOK AT IT. THE FIRST IS THAT WE HAVE HAD A VERY DIFFERENT SET OF U.S. POLICY TOWARD THE WORLD FOR A SOLID COUPLE OF DECADES NOW. THE UNITED STATES USE TO DRIVE FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS. AMERICANS ON THE LEFT AND ON THE RIGHT HAVE SAID THEY ARE MUCH LESS INTERESTED IN THAT. YOU NOW HAVE INDUSTRIAL POLICIES, SUBSIDIES, AND TARIFFS. THAT IS STRUCTURALLY TRUE AND IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE TRUE IRRESPECTIVE OF WHETHER THERE IS A DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN IN THE WHITE HOUSE GOING FORWARD. AMERICANS ARE LESS INTERESTED IN BEING THE GLOBAL SHERIFF. THEY WANT TO SEE MORE BURDEN SHARING FROM ALLIES AROUND THE WORLD. THEY WANT TO SEE LESS U.S. PRESENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THEY WANT TO PAY LESS FOR OTHER COUNTRIES DEFENSE. THAT IS GOING TO PERSIST. THE UNITED STATES WILL SPEND LESS TIME AND LESS TREASURE PROMOTING RULE OF LAW AND DEMOCRACY, HOWEVER INEFFECTIVELY, IN OTHER COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD. THOSE ARE SOME BIG STRUCTURAL CHANGES. THAT THEN YOU HAVE THE CHANGES AROUND TRUMP. I DO THINK THAT WE HAVE WELL PAST PEAK TRUMP ON THE GLOBAL STAGE. I THINK THAT WAS TRUE SIX MONTHS AGO. WHEN THE CHINESE HIT TRUMP BACK ON TARIFFS AND ON CRITICAL MINERALS, TRUMP SUDDENLY REALIZED HE NEEDED A MUCH MORE STABLE RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA. AND IN VARIOUS WAYS, WE HAVE SEEN THAT FROM THE CANADIANS. WE HAVE SEEN IT FROM INDIA. WE HAVE SEEN IT FROM THE EUROPEANS ON GREENLAND. WE HAVE EVEN SEEN IT FROM IRANIANS, THE U.S. ADVERSARY, FORCING TRUMP TO ACCEPT CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WHAT HE HAD DEMANDED IN THE EARLY DAYS OF THE WAR. THE END OF PEAK TRUMP IS CLEARLY ACCELERATING DRAMATICALLY AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE WORST DRUBBING THAT ANY AMERICAN PRESIDENT HAS SEEN FOR HIS PARTY SINCE WATERGATE, 1974. AND THERE I THINK WE WILL SEE CONSTRAINTS ON TRUMP ON TRADE. WE WILL SEE CONSTRAINTS ON WHAT HE CAN AND CANNOT DO IN RUSSIA/UKRAINE. AND WE WILL SEE CONSTRAINTS ON IRAN AS WELL. TWO DIFFERENT WAYS OF THINKING ABOUT FOREIGN POLICY ON THE BACK OF THIS ELECTION. ROMAINE: TO SAY WE ARE PAST PEAK TRUMP INTERNATIONALLY CERTAINLY MAKES SENSE. ARE WE TRULY PASS THAT DOMESTICALLY? IT IS EASY TO LOOK AT THE RESULTS OF THE ELECTION AND SAY THIS WAS A REBUKE OF TWO YEARS OF TRUMP-LED REPUBLICAN POLICIES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS PLAY OUT BEFORE, THAT PEOPLE TRY TO DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM THE PRESIDENT, AND EITHER THEY GET KNEE CAPPED BY THE PRESIDENT, OR THEY FIND OUT -- THEY FIND A WAY TO COME BACK INTO THE FOLD. THE SUGAR HIGH FOR A LOT OF THESE POLITICIANS HAS JUST BEEN TOO GOOD TO IGNORE. ASK I AM MUCH MORE CONFIDENT MAKING THAT CALL ON THE GLOBAL STAGE THAN I AM DOMESTICALLY, SO YOU ARE RIGHT TO PUSH THE QUESTION. I DO THINK THAT THE COMBINATION OF REPLACING SUSIE WILES WITH STEPHEN MILLER, WHO IS A DEEPLY POLARIZING FORCE AND IS MUCH MORE ISOLATING FOR TRUMP -- IF YOU COMBINE THAT WITH NATALIE HARP, WHAT YOU HAVE IS TRUMP IN MUCH MORE OF A BUBBLE, WHERE HE IS GOING TO SEE APPLAUSE AND HERE ONLY THINGS THAT BUMP HIM UP IN HIS INTERNAL DESIRES, AS OPPOSED TO A MORE CAPABLE, MORE DIVERSE GROUP OF ADVISERS. AND THEN YOU CAN SAY, WHAT IF HE IS GOING TO BE MORE VOLATILE IN THAT ENVIRONMENT? THEN, YOU HAVE TO START LOOKING AT HIS CAPACITY, HIS AGE, WHAT HE IS REALLY FOCUSED ON. IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT HE HAS BEEN DOING OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS, BUT YOU SEE IS A TRUMP THAT TALKS A LOT ABOUT HIS LEGACY IN TERMS OF PUTTING HIS NAME ON STUFF AND BUILDING A BALLROOM. REMEMBER, SO MANY OF THE PEOPLE THAT ARE NOW TALKING ABOUT TRUMP 'S DESTRUCTIVENESS IN HIS LAST TWO YEARS WERE THE SAME PEOPLE THAT SAID HE WOULD NEVER TOLERATE A MAJOR LOSS IN A MIDTERM ELECTION, AND YET NOT ONLY DID HE ACCEPT THE LOSS, THAT HE DID NOT REALLY TRY TO POLITICALLY INTERFERE. THIS DID NOT SHOW A LOT OF CAPACITY. IT SHOWED TRUMP AS MORE OF A SPENT FORCE THAN HE WAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SECOND TERM. REMEMBER HOW BIDEN WAS TREATED BY THE PUBLIC AND BY HIS OWN INTERNAL ADVISORS TOWARDS THE END WHEN HE NO LONGER HAD THAT COHERENCE AND CAPACITY TO RUN THE COUNTRY? I THINK TRUMP IS RUNNING INTO SOME OF THAT. ROMAINE: IT RAISES A QUESTION ABOUT LEADERSHIP OF THIS NATION HEADED INTO THE 2028 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. NEITHER PARTY HAS ANOINTED ANY PARTICULAR PERSON. IT IS GOING TO BE HARDER FOR THE REPUBLICANS TO DO THAT NOW. IF YOU ARE A WORLD LEADER OUTSIDE THE U.S., LOOKING IN, DO YOU LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR CANDIDATES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE, AND TAKE A LITTLE BIT MORE COMFORT IN WHAT WE MIGHT END UP WITH IN NOVEMBER, 2028? ASK YOU CERTAINLY LOOK AT THE IMPORTANCE OF THE UNITED STATES AND YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U.S. AS MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN YOUR VERY TIME BOUND RELATIONSHIP WITH A LESS CAPABLE AND UNFIT DONALD TRUMP. IF YOU ARE MARK CARNEY COME UP WITH 70% APPROVAL RATINGS, AND KNOWS HE IS GOING TO BE IN POWER FOR MUCH LONGER THAN TRUMP, YOU ARE GOING TO FOCUS A LOT MORE ON RED AND BLUE STATE GOVERNORS WHO HAVE THEIR MOST IMPORTANT TRADE RELATIONSHIP WITH CANADA. YOU ARE GOING TO FOCUS MUCH MORE ON CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATIONS FROM THIS NEW CONGRESS, SENATE AND HOUSE, AND WORKING WITH THEM, THEN YOU WILL ON TRUMP. AND YOU WILL FEEL LIKE YOU CAN PUSH BACK A LOT HARDER AGAINST WHATEVER, LUTNICK, AT ALL -- ET AL, ARE THROWING, IMPINGING ON YOUR TRADE SOVEREIGNTY. I THINK MODI IS FEELING SIMILAR IN INDIA. SIMILAR IN EUROPE. IF YOU ARE SOUTH KOREA OR JAPAN AND LOOKING AT THE 500 BILLION DOLLAR COMMITMENTS YOU HAVE MADE TO TRUMP AND THAT PRIVATELY YOU FEEL ARE EXPLOITATIVE, EXPLORATIVE, I THINK YOU ARE GOING TO BE WILLING TO MAYBE TAKE MUCH MORE TIME IN MAKING THOSE DECISIONS AND DEPLOYING THAT CASH, AND YOU MIGHT DRIVE A HARDER BARGAIN AND HOW YOU DETERMINE WHICH INVESTMENTS YOU MAKE AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE YOU HAVE ON THE EXIT THAT EVENTUALLY COMES FROM IT. I THINK AROUND THE WORLD, A LOT MORE FOLKS FEEL LIKE THEY WILL HAVE MUCH MORE LEVERAGE IN DEALING WITH THE PERSON OF TRUMP. ROMAINE: GREAT INSIGHTS. THE PRESIDENT AND FOUNDER. WE CONTINUE OUR COVERAGE OF THE MARKET REACTION TO THE FALLOUT FROM THE U.S. MIDTERM ELECTION. THE DIP. WE ARE JOINED BY THE DIRECTOR OF QUANT STRATEGY. IT'S GET RIGHT TO IT. WE SAW THE REACTIONS. A BIG RALLY WE SAW ON WEDNESDAY. A BIG SELLOFF WE SAW ON THURSDAY. IS THIS THE MARKET TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO SETTLE ON WHAT I GUESS THE NEW WORLD ORDER, FOR LACK OF A BETTER PHRASE, IT LOOKS LIKE? >> THAT IS CERTAINLY PART OF IT. I THINK THE OUTCOME WAS A SURPRISE TO VIRTUALLY EVERYONE. THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE DEMOCRATS SWEPT THE TABLE. A LARGE PART OF THIS HAS BEEN THE ONGOING READJUSTMENT IN TERMS OF VALUATION AND IN TERMS OF RISK PERCEPTION AROUND THE AI TRADE IN GENERAL. AND FRANKLY, THE WAY WE THINK ABOUT THIS WEEK'S MARKET ACTION, YOU ARE CLOSER TO AN END POINT IN THAT PROCESS RATHER THAN TO A MIDPOINT OR A STARTING POINT. ROMAINE: FOR ALL OF THE HANDWRINGING OVERT DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO COME IN AND DO THIS OR DO THAT, NO ONE SEEMS TO THINK THAT THE AI BUILDOUT IS NOW COMING TO A STOP. YOU MAY GET SOME GUARDRAILS, IF YOU WILL, THAT MAYBE WERE NOT THERE THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. BUT THIS IDEA THAT IF YOU ARE INVESTED IN SOME OF THE BIG NAMES THAT SOLD OFF YESTERDAY -- THAT THAT IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY, WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE OVERALL FUNDAMENTALS OF WHY THOSE STOCKS RALLIED AS THEY DID OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS, THAT THAT IS STILL INTACT, MORE OR LESS. >> THAT IS REALLY THE THESIS. FROM OUR POINT OF VIEW, THE EARNINGS TRAJECTORY, WE STILL SEE DOUBLE DIGIT EARNINGS GROWTH, LED BY TECH, AND 2027. AS I SAID, THE VALUATIONS HAVE COMPRESSED. IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM, SOMETIMES WE WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE. WE SAW TWO THINGS YESTERDAY IN THAT ACTION, THAT REALLY GIVE US PAUSE TO BELIEVE THAT WE HAD A VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO REINVEST IN THESE NAMES RIGHT IN FRONT OF US. NUMBER ONE, THE LARGEST SINGLE VOLUME OF ANY DAY IN HISTORY YESTERDAY. VERY FREQUENTLY A CONTRARY INDICATOR. AND THEN THE VOLATILITY INDEX ON THE NASDAQ SPIKED TO LEVELS THAT ARE CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE SAW AT THE BOTTOM OF THE TARIFF TO AND 2025. AND WHEN YOU SEE FEAR LIKE THAT, AND WE KNOW THAT HAS BEEN PART OF THE NARRATIVE OF THIS MARKET -- EVERY TIME YOU HAVE THAT INTENSIVE FEAR, IT HAS BEEN A BUYING OPPORTUNITY. WE THINK WE ARE THERE AGAIN. ROMAINE: WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE NERVOUSNESS, ANXIETY THAT IS OUT THERE, THAT SEEMED TO EXIST PRIOR TO THE ELECTION, PRIOR TO KNOWING THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION, THE IDEA THAT THERE WAS STILL CONCERN ABOUT DURATION RISK IN AI TRADE, THE IDEA OF THE COST AND THE POTENTIAL RETURNS. HOW MUCH OF THAT DO YOU THINK DROVE THE REACTION THAT WE SAW THIS WEEK, RATHER THAN JUST THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION ITSELF? >> IT IS REALLY A COMBINATION. IF YOU LOOK AT THE LAST TWO MIDTERM ELECTION CYCLES OF THE TRUMP POLITICAL ERA, 2022 AND 2018, THE SURPRISE OF THIS ONE WAS THAT IN ACTUALITY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE S&P 500 INDEX, IT WAS REASONABLY RANGE BOUND FOR THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS LEADING INTO THIS WEEK, AND THEN OF COURSE YOU GOT THE VOLATILITY AFTERWARD. FROM OUR POINT OF VIEW, WHAT IT SAYS IS THAT THE RANGE FOUNDED IN THIS -- RANGE BOUNDEDNESS WAS A RESULT OF THIS EARNINGS STRIKE. EARNINGS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR NEXT YEAR. BUT ALSO, THIS PROCESS WHEREBY THE AI TRADE IS CORRECTING INDIVIDUALLY, AND THAT IS WORTH ANALYZING. ROMAINE: A MODEST REBOUND ON WALL STREET ON THIS FRIDAY, LED LARGELY BY TECHNOLOGY STOCKS. A SHOT IN THE ARM WITH REGARDS TO ECONOMIC DATA WITH THAT JOB SUPPORT AND THOSE CONSUMER SENTIMENT FIGURES. WHEN WE COME BACK, MORE ON THE POLICY IMPLICATIONS IN THE U.S. ELECTIONS. ♪ >> FRANKLY, YOU HAVE A CRYPTO COALITION THAT BLEW IT. THEY HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO LEGISLATE AND THEY WERE HOLDING OUT FOR SOMETHING THAT WAS UNATTAINABLE. A PERFECT PIECE OF LEGISLATION. RATHER THAN TAKE SOMETHING THAT WAS GOOD, MANY OF THEM HELD OUT FOR PERFECTION AND NOW HAVE ENDED UP WITH NOTHING. LEGISLATIVELY ROMAINE: FORMER CONGRESSMAN PATRICK MCHENRY BEING VERY BLUNT ABOUT HIS VIEW OF THE STATE OF THE CRYPTO SPACE. PARTICULARLY SOME OF THE CONCERNS RIGHT NOW AROUND THE CLARITY ACT AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY CLARITY ON THAT MOVING FORWARD IN A NEW DEMOCRATICALLY CONTROLLED CONGRESS. STILL, THE QUESTIONS ABOUT ESTABLISHING A DIGITAL FRAMEWORK FOR DIGITAL ASSETS, WELL, IS IT IN LIMBO OR MAYBE THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL? LET'S BRING INTO THIS CONVERSATION RIGHT NOW RYAN VANGRACK, VICE CHAIR OVER AT COINBASE, TO TALK MORE ABOUT THIS. ABOUT TO START THERE. OBVIOUSLY, PATRICK BEING A LITTLE BLUNT IN HIS ASSESSMENTS BUT I WANT TO START OFF WITH THIS IDEA THAT WE SAW A LITTLE BIT OF A STALL OUT. WAYSIDE. WHAT ARE YOUR EXPECTATIONS OR ANY PROGRESS ON LEGISLATION ON THE DIGITAL FRONT UNDER THE NEW CONGRESS COME JANUARY 3? RYAN: GREAT TO BE HERE AND HAPPY TO TAKE THAT QUESTION. I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO TAKE A STEP BACK AND REMEMBER THERE ALWAYS TWO PATHS TO CLARITY. THERE'S LEGISLATION AND THERE IS REGULATION. THERE IS NO DOUBT LEGISLATION HAS STALLED. WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE CLARITY ACT VOTE IS REGULATION BEING PROMULGATED BY THE SEC AND CFTC. WE ARE GETTING CLARITY IN THE CRYPTO SPACE. IT IS JUST HAPPENING THROUGH A DIFFERENT VEHICLE. ROMAINE: HOW MUCH EFFORT DO YOU THINK THAT THE WHITE HOUSE, THE REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATION WILL BE ABLE TO PUT TOWARDS THAT KNOWING THAT YOU STILL DO HAVE SOME DEGREE OF OVERSIGHT COMING OUT OF CONGRESS OVER WHAT GOES ON? IT IS ONE THING TO PUT UP A RULE, BUT THERE ARE STILL GOING TO BE PUSHED FROM A DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS. RYAN: THERE'S ALWAYS GOING TO BE A HEALTHY GIVE-AND-TAKE BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT CRYPTO IS INHERENTLY A BIPARTISAN ISSUE. CONCERNS LET ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND LOWER COSTS, THOSE ARE NOT REPUBLICAN ISSUES, THOSE ARE NOT DEMOCRATIC ISSUES. THOSE ARE AMERICAN VALUES. WHAT WE SAW IT IN THE CLARITY ACT DEBATE, 78 DEMOCRATS JOINED THE REPUBLICAN COLLEAGUES IN THE HOUSE TO PASS THAT LEGISLATION. YOU HAD OVER A DOZEN DEMOCRATIC SENATORS TRYING TO PROPOSE AND GET THE CLARITY ACT ACROSS THE FINISH LINE. ROMAINE: WHAT DO YOU PREFER, BY YOU, I MEAN COINBASE. I AM CURIOUS ABOUT THIS IDEA. SEC RULES KIND OF MAKE IT CLEAR THAT WE CAN WRITE THIS BUT AS FAR AS ACTUAL ENFORCEMENT, THE IDEA THAT THINGS WOULD BE BINDING, THEY MADE IT CLEAR THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY THE CASE. THAT WAS THE WHOLE POINT OF HAVING THE LEGISLATION. WOULD YOU BE WORKING -- WILLING TO WORK WITH WHOEVER THE DEMOCRATIC LEADERS ARE IN JANUARY'S TO STILL PURSUE LEGISLATION? RYAN: THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS ABSOLUTELY. WE ARE HAPPY TO WORK WITH ANYONE WHO SIMILARLY AGREES AND SUPPORTS SENSIBLE RULES AND REGULATIONS THAT WILL PROTECT CUSTOMERS AND HELP FOSTER INNOVATION. I THINK YOUR SECOND POINT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE. THE DURABILITY THAT COMES FROM LEGISLATION MEETS THE GOLD STANDARD IN TERMS OF ESTABLISHING CLARITY. THE POINT I AM TRYING TO MAKE IS THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO OBTAIN CLARITY BUT ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL, WE PREFER LEGISLATION. IF THERE IS AN APPETITE OR OPENNESS TO EXPLORE THAT, WE ARE MORE THAN HAPPY AND EAGER TO ENGAGE. ROMAINE: SOME OF THE THINGS DEMOCRATS HAVE SAID PRIOR TO THE SELECTION THAT THEY WERE MOST INTERESTED IN ON THIS FRONT WAS THE IDEA OF ADDRESSING THE CONFLICTS OF INTEREST. ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING CONTROLS, DEFI ACCESS POINTS, CONSUMER PROTECTIONS. A PLETHORA OF OTHER THINGS BUT THOSE WERE THE BIG ONES. ARE THOSE THINGS YOU ARE ABLE TO COMPROMISE ON OR WILLING TO COMPROMISE ON? RYAN: WE SHOULD ASSUME IF IT IS IMPORTANT FOR MEMBERS OF CONGRESS AS THEY CONTEMPLATE LEGISLATION THAT WE SHOULD ABSOLUTELY ENGAGE IN THOSE CONVERSATIONS. I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO TAKE A STEP BACK IN LIGHT OF WHAT HAPPENED ON TUESDAY TO REALIZE THIS ELECTION PROVED TO BE ABOUT AFFORDABILITY AND FAIRNESS. AND CRYPTO HAS ALWAYS BEEN PART OF THAT CONVERSATION. PART OF THE SOLUTION. BECAUSE IT GREW OUT OF PUBLIC FRUSTRATION WITH A FINANCIAL SYSTEM THAT WAS NOT WORKING FOR EVERYONE. THAT IS WHY CRYPTO IS INHERENTLY A BIPARTISAN ISSUE. IT IS WHY WE SUPPORT CANDIDATES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE WHO SUPPORTS SENSIBLE RULES. IT IS WHY WE LOOK FORWARD TO THIS NEXT CONGRESS TO WORKING WITH ANYONE WHO WANTS TO TRY TO UPGRADE OUR FINANCIAL SYSTEM. ROMAINE: I DON'T YOU SAY IT IS BIPARTISAN BUT WE TRACKED THE MONEY. MOST OF IT WENT TO REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES. COINBASE WAS A PART OF, SPENT A TON OF MONEY TRY TO DEFEAT SHERROD BROWN IN OHIO WHO IS GOING TO BE BACK IN THE SEAT IN JANUARY. YOU MADE A BET ON ONE SIDE OF THE AISLE. I'M CURIOUS WE DIDN'T SEE MORE DISPERSION AMONGST THE CANDIDATES. RYAN: RESPECTFULLY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBERS, WE SUPPORTED REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS, BOTH AS A COMPANY BUT ALSO WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT FAIR SHAKE. 90 PLUS PERCENT OF THE CANDIDATES WE SUPPORTED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE ULTIMATELY PREVAILED. THIS IS NOT ABOUT ANY ONE INDIVIDUAL MEMBER OR CANDIDATE, BUT COLLECTIVELY, WE WILL SUPPORT PEOPLE AND WILL ALWAYS SUPPORT PEOPLE. REPUBLICANS OR DEMOCRATS WHO SHARE OUR VIEW ON THE IMPORTANCE OF HAVING SENSIBLE RULES. WHAT WE WILL SEE IN THIS NEXT CONGRESS ARE MORE PRONE CRYPTO MEMBERS THAN EVER BEFORE WHICH CREATES MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR NEGOTIATIONS AND COMPROMISE SO THAT WE CAN ULTIMATELY GET MORE CLARITY ACROSS THE FINISH LINE AND UPGRADE OUR SYSTEM. ROMAINE: AND YOU CAN WORK WITH SHERROD BROWN? YOU WILL HAVE A BIG SAY. RYAN: ABSOLUTELY. WE WILL WORK WITH ANYONE WHO IS WILLING TO ENGAGE. I THINK WHEN PEOPLE UNDERSTAND AND APPRECIATE THE TECHNOLOGY AND WHAT IT DOES, PARTICULARLY IN AN ERA WHERE PEOPLE ARE WORRIED ABOUT AFFORDABILITY AND COST, THEY WANT A FINANCIAL SYSTEM THAT WORKS FOR THEM, NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND. THEY WANT SOMETHING THAT ALLOWS YOU TO TRANSACT MORE EASILY AND MORE FAIRLY. THAT IS WHAT CRYPTO DOES. WE ARE MORE THAN HAPPY TO ENGAGE WITH ANYONE IN CONGRESS, REPUBLICAN, DEMOCRAT. BROWN, IF THEY WANT TO HAVE THAT CONVERSATION AND FIGURE OUT HOW WE CAN ADDRESS THESE AFFORDABILITY CRISIS AND LEVERAGE THIS INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY TO FINALLY GET OUR FINANCIAL SYSTEM TO WORK FOR THE PEOPLE. ROMAINE: APPRECIATE YOU TAKING TIME FOR US. WE WILL TALK AGAIN SOON. RYAN VANGRACK, VICE CHAIR OVER AT COINBASE. UNDER PRESSURE ALL WEEK LONG. CRYPTO PRICES DOWN ON THE DAY AND THE WEEK. A SIMILAR STORY ON THE BROADER MARKET. WE GOT A BIT OF A REBOUND ON THE NASDAQ 100 WHICH CLOSED UP ABOUT 1% ON THE DAY. THE PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX ADDING ABOUT 3%. ALL OF THOSE INDICES FINISHING DEEP IN THE RED ON THE WEEK, INCLUDING A 5% DROP FOR THE NASDAQ 100. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ROMAINE: WALL STREET DIGESTING A SLEW OF ECONOMIC DATA INCLUDING THE U.S. JOBS REPORT THAT SHOWED A SURGEON HIRING. CONSUMER SENTIMENT BOUNCING BACK TO A THREE-MONTH HIGH. ALL OF THAT COMES AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF THE HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON ABOUT TO GET STARTED? IT MIGHT HAVE ALREADY STARTED. A RECENT SURVEY NOW PREDICTS U.S. HOLIDAY SALES COULD TOP $1 TRILLION FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER. HERE TO WALK US THROUGH SOME OF THE UNDERLYING FIGURES IS THE GLOBAL HEAD OF RETAIL AT BAIN AND COMPANY. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE ACTUAL GROWTH RATE ITSELF BECAUSE ONE NUMBER JUMPED OUT AT ME AND THAT WAS THE IDEA THAT YOU EXPECT FROM BLACK FRIDAY THROUGH CYBER MONDAY, BASICALLY FOUR DAYS, WE WILL SEE ABOUT 9% GROWTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR. BUT FOR THE HOLIDAY SEASON AS A WHOLE, THAT GROWTH RATE IS SOMETHING LIKE 4.5% BASED ON YOUR NUMBERS. WHAT ACCOUNTS FOR THAT DISCREPANCY? IS THAT A SIGN OF A HEALTHY CONSUMER OR A SIGN WE ARE ALL CLAMORING TO GET OUR HANDS ON ANY DEALS? AARON: IT IS A GREAT POINT. THE SHORT ANSWER IS THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF A MIXED SET OF INDICATORS. THE CUSTOMERS ARE, FRANKLY, MORE RESILIENT THAN A LOT OF PEOPLE THOUGHT THEY WOULD BE. WE SAW A GOOD SPEND THROUGH THE YEAR SO FAR. THEY ARE ALSO CAUTIOUS IN LOOKING FOR A DEAL. LAST YEAR, 75% OF PEOPLE SAID THEY WILL SHOP ONE OF THE BIG SHOPPING DAYS, AND NOW IT IS UP TO 90%. A LOT OF INTEREST INTO GETTING SAVINGS. AND THESE BIG DAYS HAVE BEEN GROWING FASTER. ROMAINE: WHEN WE GET TO THESE NUMBERS LIKE AROUND THE $1 TRILLION NUMBER, THESE ARE NOMINAL NUMBERS. I AM CURIOUS HOW YOU BREAK OUT HOW MUCH IS TRUE ADDITIONAL DEMAND, MEANING WE ARE BUYING MORE GOODS, AND HOW MUCH OF IT IS A LOT OF THESE GOODS ARE PRICED A LOT HIGHER THAN THEY WERE A YEAR AGO? AARON: THAT'S A GREAT POINT. PEOPLE EXPECT THEY WILL SPEND MORE THIS HOLIDAY SEASON BUT IT IS NOT BECAUSE THEY THINK THEY WILL BUY HIGHER QUANTITY OF GOODS. IT IS THAT THEY EXPECT THINGS WILL COST MORE AND THEY ARE RIGHT. THINGS HAVE BEEN COSTING MORE. WHETHER IT IS FUEL OR PRODUCTS, ETC., CUSTOMERS WILL SPEND MORE. WHILE WE WILL BE A POINT HIGHER ON GROWTH THAN LAST YEAR'S HOLIDAY, MOST OF THAT IS REALLY INFLATION AND NOT TRUE REAL GROWTH. ROMAINE: GIVE ME A SENSE OF THE IDEA OF THE PROMOTIONAL ENVIRONMENT AND HOW AGGRESSIVE OR MAYBE NOT AGGRESSIVE SOME OF THE RETAILERS WILL BE THIS HOLIDAY SEASON RELATIVE TO PAST YEARS. AARON: I THINK RETAILERS ARE EAGER TO GET GROWTH AND ONE OF THE WAYS TO GET GROWTH IS TO COMPEL CONSUMERS TO BUY. EXPECTATION IS YOU WILL SEE SOME GOOD DEALS OUT THERE. ALSO, A REMINDER THAT THE RETAILERS ARE FIGHTING FOR THE CONSUMER WHILE THAT THAT HAS MORE TAX REFUNDS FOR ADMITTEDLY, WE ARE FAR AWAY FROM APRIL BUT MORE TAX REFUNDS THIS YEAR, UP 17% FROM THE YEAR BEFORE. THE RETAILERS GOT A LOT OF MONEY BACK FROM TARIFF REBATES SO SOME OF THAT, YOU SEE THEM GETTING BACK IN TERMS OF PRICE AND PROMO. ROMAINE: AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE HOLIDAY SEASON -- I WANT TO TALK ABOUT HOW WE SHOP. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TALK ABOUT THE USE OF AI AGENTS. I KNOW SOME OF THESE PRODUCTS ARE RELATIVELY NEW LIKE MUSE. EVEN WITHOUT THOSE ACTUAL PRODUCTS THEMSELVES, BEING ABLE TO PULL OUT YOUR LLM MODEL, IT IS A LOT EASIER NOW TO FIND WHAT YOU WANT BUT ALSO MAKE SURE YOU ARE FINDING THINGS THAT ARE IN A PRICE POINT YOU ARE LOOKING FOR. HOW HAVE RETAILERS ADAPTED TO THAT IDEA THAT THE CONSUMER HAS A LITTLE MORE POWER IN THEIR POCKET RIGHT NOW TO FIGURE OUT WHERE THE BEST DEALS WILL BE? AARON: I THINK EVERYONE IS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THEY DO WITH AI. THEY WERE IN THE EARLY INNINGS STILL. ON ONE SIDE, DIRECT REFERRALS TRAFFIC. IT IS STILL EARLY IN THE CURVE. BUT THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE DOING RESEARCH BEFORE THEY ARE DOING THE FINAL LINK TO THE SITE AND DOING EXACTLY AS YOU SAY, FINDING WHICH PRODUCTS AND WHERE TO GET THEM AND THE BEST DEALS. SO, IT IS ABSOLUTELY A KEY TO FIGURE OUT, JUST LIKE THEY DID YEARS AGO WITH SEO AND HOW I SHOW UP ON GOOGLE, I NEED TO USE AEO AND FIGURE OUT HOW I SHOW UP ON AI. ROMAINE: ARE RETAILERS PREPARED FOR THIS? I KNOW YOU HAVE SOMETHING LIKE 24% OR SO OF ONLINE SHOPPERS ARE BASICALLY GOING TO START THEIR SEARCH USING SOME SORT OF AI TOOL RATHER THAN THE MORE TRADITIONAL MODELS. HAVE RETAILERS ADJUSTED TO THAT REALITY IN THE HERE AND NOW TO BE ABLE TO MAKE SURE THEY CAPTURE THOSE FOLKS? AARON: YEAH, YOU SEE DIFFERENT APPROACHES. YOU SEE SOME PEOPLE REALLY EMBRACING THE IDEA AND SAYING WE ARE GOING TO PARTNER WITH ALL OF THE DIFFERENT AI FOLKS TO MAKE SITE. YOU SEE OTHERS THAT ARE LITTLE MORE RETICENT MAYBE TO GIVE UP BEING THE FRONT DOOR AND HAVING THE FRONT DOOR TO THEIR EXPERIENCE BEING THROUGH AI. EITHER WAY, I THINK THE ANSWER IS GOING TO BE AI WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WHERE PEOPLE DECIDE TO SHOP. FRANKLY, IT WILL LEAD TO A LOT MORE EFFICIENCY BECAUSE EFFICIENCY, PEOPLE ARE GOING TO DO THAT RESEARCH UP FRONT. IT FEELS MORE UNBIASED. WHERE DO I GET THE BEST DEALS, THE BEST QUALITY? I THINK WE WILL SEE MORE SPIKY OUTCOMES FOR THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE SOMETHING THEY CAN WIN ON. ROMAINE: AND MAYBE IT WILL HELP SOME OF US WHO ARE LOOKING FOR THAT HOT TOY THAT ALWAYS IS SOLD OUT. MAYBE IT WILL GIVE US A LEG UP THAT WE DID NOT HAVE IN THE PAST. THE GLOBAL HEAD OF RETAIL OVER AT BAIN AND COMPANY. GOING UP THE PRICE LETTER JUST A LITTLE BIT. ONE OF THE HARDEST RESERVATIONS TO GET IS THE CORNER STORE. THEY ARE NOW TAKING THE CONCEPT TO LAS VEGAS. WE TALK AFTER THE BREAK. ♪ ROMAINE: ONE OF THE HOTTEST RESTAURANT RESERVATIONS TO GET IN NEW YORK CITY IS THE CORNER STORE. THE TEAM BEHIND IT -- IT HAS BECOME SO POPULAR HERE, THEY ARE TAKING IT ON THE ROAD, OPENING AN OUTPOST ON THE LAS VEGAS STRIP, IN THE COSMOPOLITAN, AS IT AIMS TO DRAW MORE LUXURY CONSUMERS TO ITS PORTFOLIO OF RESTAURANTS. WE ARE JOINED BY EUGENE RAM, WHO IS IN LAS VEGAS, NOT IN SOHO. GOOD TO SEE YOU VIRTUALLY. I HAVE TO ASK YOU ABOUT HOW THIS TRANSLATES. THE CORNER STORE IS NOT A HUGE PLACE. 180 SEATS. I'M TOLD THE LAS VEGAS LOCATION IS AT LEAST TWICE THAT SIZE. HOW DO YOU TAKE SOMETHING THAT IS BUILT AROUND EXCLUSIVITY AND SCARCITY, AND SCALE IT UP IN A PLACE LIKE VEGAS? >> 75 SEATS IN NEW YORK CITY IS THE EQUIVALENT OF 150 IN LAS VEGAS. IT IS STILL SMALL FOR LAS VEGAS. WE CREATED THE INTIMACY YOU EXPECT FROM THE CORNER STORE. IN LAS VEGAS, IT INVOKES THAT SAME EMOTION OF INTIMACY AND NEW YORK CITY FLAVOR IN THE LAS VEGAS STRIP AT THE COSMOPOLITAN. ROMAINE: ARE THE ECONOMICS OF RUNNING A RESTAURANT IN VEGAS MATERIALLY DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY ARE IN NEW YORK CITY? EUGENE: THEY ARE SIMILAR. MGM AND THE COSMOPOLITAN SPEND AN AMAZING AMOUNT OF MONEY TO MAKE SURE THIS LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LUXURIOUS INTERPRETATION OF THE CORNER STORE. BUT WE STARTED WITH IN SOHO WITH A MUCH MORE HUMBLE BEGINNING. THIS IS ON ANOTHER SCALE AND ANOTHER LEVEL TO HELP ELEVATE THE BRAND AND GIVE IT A POSITION WITHIN THE LAS VEGAS MARKET. ROMAINE: IN TERMS OF WHAT PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE DINING ON, DO YOU ANTICIPATE A DIFFERENT MIX? WILL IT BE MORE HEAVY ON THE COCKTAILS AND THE WINE IN VEGAS AS OPPOSED TO NEW YORK? MORE HEAVY ON THE PLATES AND THE FOOD? EUGENE: GREAT QUESTION. WE ARE BRINGING THE CORNER STORE EXPERIENCE TO LAS VEGAS, NOT EDITING FOR LAS VEGAS. WHAT IS GREAT ABOUT THE COSMOPOLITAN AND MGM IS THEY WANT OUR MOST AUTHENTIC INTERPRETATION, NOT A WATERED-DOWN VERSION OF WHAT THE LAS VEGAS CORNER STORE SHOULD BE. IF THIS IS ANYTHING BUT A WATERED-DOWN VERSION -- THIS IS EVERYTHING YOU GET IN SOHO, BROUGHT TO YOU HERE AT THE COSMOPOLITAN. ROMAINE: IT GETS TO THIS IDEA OF UNIQUENESS. WE TALK A LOT IN THIS SHOW ABOUT HOW MUCH MORE CHOOSY CONSUMERS HAVE BECOME. THEY'RE WILLING TO SPEND MONEY AS LONG AS IT IS AN EXPERIENCE THAT IS UNIQUE AND PROVIDES SOMETHING DIFFERENT. I ASSUME THAT WHAT YOU ARE BUILDING IN VEGAS PROVIDES THAT SAME UNIQUENESS THAT YOU HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CAPTURE WITH SOME OF YOUR PROPERTIES HERE IN NEW YORK CITY. EUGENE: GREAT FOOD, GREAT SERVICE, GREAT VIBE. EVERY PROPERTY HAS TO INCLUDE THOSE ELEMENTS. WE ARE EXPERIENCE CURATORS. WE ARE NOT JUST GIVING YOU SOMETHING TO CONSUME BECAUSE YOU ARE HERE TO EAT. WE ARE HERE TO INVOKE AN EMOTION. WE DO IT IN THE NEW YORK CITY, NEW YORK, L.A., ASPEN, DALLAS, SCOTTSDALE. WE ARE SUPER EXCITED TO BRING IT HERE. THERE SHOULD BE NO REDIRECTION FROM WHAT WE DO IN OUR OTHER MARKETS. JUST BE GREAT. ROMAINE: HAVE YOU SEEN ANY PULLBACK BY CONSUMERS BECAUSE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, THE IDEA THAT PEOPLE ARE NOT GOING OUT AS MUCH, OR MAYBE THEY ARE GOING OUT AND SPENDING A LITTLE BIT LESS AT THE RESTAURANT? YOUR DINER IS PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT LESS ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE, BUT I AM CURIOUS WHETHER THAT STARTS TO BECOME A CONCERN YOU HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION TO. ASK THE NUMBER ONE THING -- EUGENE: ARE WE GIVING THE BEST QUALITY OF FOOD AND SERVICE? ARE WE MAKING THIS AN AUTHENTIC EXPERIENCE? AUTHENTICITY IS SOMETHING WE FOCUS ON. WE HAVE NOT FELT ANYTHING LIKE THAT BECAUSE WE SIT AT THE TOP OF THE K ECONOMY. WE ARE SOMETHING THAT PEOPLE HAVE A HARD TIME TO GET INTO. WHEN THEY GET INTO IT, THEY REALLY WANT TO EXPERIENCE IT. THEY ARE USUALLY CELEBRATING SOMETHING OR HAVING SOME SORT OF SPECIAL EXPERIENCE, SO THEY ARE GOING ABOVE AND BEYOND WHAT THEY USUALLY SPEND. ROMAINE: I AM CURIOUS ABOUT THE STRATEGY. YOU DO NOT SEE IT IN A LOT OF OTHER RESTAURANTS. WE TALK ABOUT THE 86, OR YOU JUST OPENED A PLACE IN SEPTEMBER, DOWN IN THE WEST VILLAGE. THESE ARE ALL SINGULAR IDENTITY PLACES. THEY ARE UNDER THE UMBRELLA, BUT THEY HAVE THEIR OWN NAMES, THEIR OWN DISTINCT CUISINES AND FEEL TO THEM. THAT IS A DELIBERATE CHOICE, I WOULD ASSUME? EUGENE: THANK YOU FOR NOTICING. NEW YORK CITY DOES NOT WANT TO FEEL LIKE A CHAIN. EVERY ONE OF THESE RESTAURANTS HAS A NEW POINT OF VIEW WHEN IT COMES TO THE CULINARY, WHICH IS WHY I BRING AMAZING CHEF PARTNERS. EVERY CONCEPT HAS ITS OWN UNIQUE POINT OF VIEW, ITS OWN UNIQUE NAME, ITS OWN UNIQUE DESIGN. THAT IS HOW WE THINK WE WILL BE THE LEADERS IN MARKET WITHIN THE NEW YORK CITY SPACE. FROM THERE, IF ANY OF THESE BRANDS ARE FIT TO TRAVEL TO ANOTHER MARKET, WE WILL LOOK AT THAT. BUT WE WANT TO CREATE AUTHENTIC EXPERIENCES, UNIQUE EXPERIENCES WITHIN THE NEIGHBORHOODS WE LOVE, WORK IN, AND LIVE IN. THEN, WE DECIDE WHETHER TO SCALE IT OR NOT. THE LAST THING I THINK NEW YORK WANTS IS CHAINS. THAT IS A DIRTY WORD. THAT FEELS REDUNDANT. I THINK PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR UNIQUE EXPERIENCES IN EVERY ASPECT OF THEIR LIVES, INCLUDING WHERE THEY DINE. ROMAINE: BEHIND THE SCENES, WITH HOW YOU OPERATE, I THINK ABOUT THE PARTNERSHIP YOU HAVE HAD FOR YEARS WITH TONY FOR TETO -- WITH TONY. I WONDER ABOUT THE WISDOM HE HAS BEEN ABLE TO IMPART ON YOUR MODEL, WHERE YOU CAN SORT OF OPERATE IN A UNIQUE FASHION IN TERMS OF WHAT THE CONSUMER SEES, BUT IN A MORE OPERATIONALLY AND ECONOMICALLY EFFICIENT WAY BEHIND THE SCENES. EUGENE: TONY IS ONE OF THE MOST PROLIFIC BUSINESSPEOPLE OF THIS GENERATION. HE HAS BEEN ABLE TO TEACH ME A LOT ABOUT STRUCTURE, DISCIPLINE, PROCEDURE, PROCESS, AND HOW TO BUILD AN ORGANIZATION, NOT JUST HAVE A RESTAURANT AND HAVE A LOT OF FUN. THIS IS A BUSINESS. WE ARE CREATING A BUSINESS THAT EMPLOYS THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE. HE HAS HELPED CREATE A STRUCTURE AND A FORMAT THAT CAN BLEND WITH THE CREATIVITY THAT WE DO. WHAT YOU SEE IN FRONT, THE FOOD AND THE SERVICE -- THOSE THINGS ARE DIFFERENT. YOU SEE IN THE BACK END, WHETHER IT IS THE TECHNOLOGY, THE CONSTRUCTION TEAM -- EVERYTHING THAT IS NOT FUN, SEXY, OR INTERESTING TO THE CUSTOMER -- THAT IS CONSISTENT. YOU HAVE THE GREAT STRUCTURE AND THE SUPPORT FROM THE ORGANIZATION, AND YOU HAVE THE GREAT CREATIVITY OF WHAT WE DO HERE, CREATING THESE NEW CONCEPTS WITH THESE AMAZING CHEFS AND OPERATORS. IT IS A PERFECT BLEND OF DOING BOTH OF THOSE THINGS. THAT IS HOW YOU CAN CONTINUE TO GROW IN THIS BUSINESS. AT SOME POINT, CREATIVITY NEEDS STRUCTURE. AND STRUCTURE HAS TO HAVE CREATIVITY. OTHERWISE, IT BECOMES BLAND. ROMAINE: GOT TO LEAVE IT THERE. EUGENE RAMM EXPANDING INTO LAS VEGAS. MGM, OF COURSE, THE RESORT PLATFORM. CORNER STORE OPENING ITS OUTPOST IN LAS VEGAS ON NOVEMBER 9. WE PUSH AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK. THE CONGRESS DOES RETURN TO WORK AFTER THE MIDTERMS. WE GET EARNINGS OUT OF SKYDANCE. WE GET AN UPDATE ON U.S. CPI AND PPI NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE THE MARKETS. WE WILL HAVE BLANKET COVERAGE OF THAT, AS WE DO EVERY DAY, RIGHT HERE ON BLOOMBERG. ♪","textShort":"Markets Rebound After Historic Tech Selloff\n\n>> THE COUNTDOWN IS ON, EVERYTHING YOU NEED FOR THE EDGE AT THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS THE CLOSE. >> THE REASON TO BUY, FAR FROM BEING BACK ON TRACK. LIVE FROM STUDIO TWO I AM ROMAINE BOSTICK. >> I'M KAILEY LEINZ. YES, WE…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTuMh12kgUA"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T21:50:11.068Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"266200ba-51a7-4c9f-9b74-d6dfb95aedb8","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["DEFICITS ARE GOING UP UNDER REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRATIC ADMINISTRATIONS"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Kate Moore expects US deficits to increase regardless of which party governs.","topic":"us budget deficits"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["OUR EXPECTATION IS THAT YIELDS ARE GOING TO RISE","HIGHER REAL YIELDS"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Kate Moore expects yields to rise, supported by fiscal pressures and strong economic growth.","topic":"treasury yields"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["GOLD AS A BALLAST TO MY GROWTH TILTED EQUITY PORTFOLIO","GOLD IS A PARTIAL DURATION REPLACEMENT"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Kate Moore says gold can help balance a growth-focused portfolio and replace some bond exposure.","topic":"gold as a portfolio ballast"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["MICROSOFT IS WINDING DOWN ITS DEAL WITH ORACLE TO RENT A ICLOUD CAPACITY","AI TRADE SLOWING DOWN"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The program reports that Microsoft is winding down an Oracle cloud-capacity deal amid concerns about a slowing AI trade.","topic":"ai cloud spending"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:GOLD","confidence":0.85,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":2,"entryPx":4068.05,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T21:49:31.393Z","headline":"Kate Moore says to stay long gold","id":"sig_d9516ebf53b349d09904e00a","matched":["STAY LONG GOLD","I DO OWN GOLD AS A BALLAST TO MY GROWTH TILTED EQUITY PORTFOLIO"],"maxLeverage":25,"rationale":"Kate Moore expects gold to remain worth holding as a ballast for a growth-focused portfolio.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"GOLD","tags":["gold","portfolio hedge"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"14d65c9b-9c9a-469a-af2d-3e519d62bc88","marks":[{"at":55,"t":31},{"at":457,"t":64},{"at":817,"t":100},{"at":1282,"t":132},{"at":1730,"t":165},{"at":2371,"t":215},{"at":3250,"t":266},{"at":3847,"t":308},{"at":4564,"t":349},{"at":5125,"t":387},{"at":5774,"t":433},{"at":6485,"t":478},{"at":7118,"t":516},{"at":7928,"t":572},{"at":8573,"t":606},{"at":9254,"t":659},{"at":9700,"t":705},{"at":10185,"t":737},{"at":10577,"t":768},{"at":11161,"t":801},{"at":11683,"t":834},{"at":12173,"t":872},{"at":12575,"t":906},{"at":13017,"t":937},{"at":13579,"t":979},{"at":14056,"t":1010},{"at":14549,"t":1043},{"at":15409,"t":1097},{"at":15875,"t":1129},{"at":16244,"t":1169},{"at":16705,"t":1202},{"at":17138,"t":1234},{"at":17753,"t":1275},{"at":18122,"t":1309},{"at":18773,"t":1357},{"at":19372,"t":1395},{"at":20183,"t":1450},{"at":20697,"t":1486},{"at":21543,"t":1543},{"at":22242,"t":1593},{"at":22857,"t":1631},{"at":23307,"t":1667},{"at":23785,"t":1701},{"at":24463,"t":1746},{"at":24943,"t":1781},{"at":25486,"t":1820},{"at":25949,"t":1854},{"at":26523,"t":1893},{"at":27084,"t":1929},{"at":27599,"t":1965},{"at":28147,"t":2009},{"at":28674,"t":2049},{"at":29153,"t":2085},{"at":29740,"t":2127},{"at":30160,"t":2158},{"at":30622,"t":2191},{"at":31016,"t":2224},{"at":31551,"t":2263},{"at":31950,"t":2294},{"at":32312,"t":2328},{"at":32769,"t":2365},{"at":33209,"t":2402},{"at":33631,"t":2434},{"at":34161,"t":2466},{"at":34549,"t":2500},{"at":35072,"t":2541},{"at":35401,"t":2573},{"at":36005,"t":2621}],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T21:44:48.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://yt3.googleusercontent.com/4-w44catDebzaDSUWgereql0G5_z5o7VpJXuIYL_eZ3H1vXy0lTmrole9V500jTUXCnQPZ5CuKQ=s900-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj","handle":"@markets","id":"yt-UCIALMKvObZNtJ6AmdCLP7Lg","name":"Bloomberg Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"'Blue Wave' & Your Wallet, Managing Market Volatility\n\nTOM: GOOD NOON EVERYONE, BLOOMBERG MONEY, PERSONAL FINANCE, RETIREMENT, WEALTH MANAGEMENT AND A WELLNESS SHOW AFTER SURVIVING THIS WEEK. WE ALL SURVIVED IT. WE WILL BE TALKING WELLNESS TODAY. SCARLET: I AM WHIPLASH FROM THE MARKET ACTION. HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE. TOM: PRO TIP. I CAME IN THIS MORNING AND FORGOT IT WAS JOBS TODAY. YOU GET THINGS GOING HERE. WE WELCOME ALL OF YOU. A LOT GOING ON. THE CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF CITY WELL, KATE MOORE, AND A PARAGRAPH ON GOLD, SNOW FOR PERSONAL FINANCE. SCARLET: HOW IT FITS IN WITH YOUR BOND EXPOSURE. WE ALSO HAVE ONE OF THE MOST CITED AUTHORS IN FINANCIAL REPORT. TOM: SHE INVENTED MODERN FINANCIAL LITERACY. INTO IT. I AM GOING TO LOOK AT THE STOCK MARKET. I THINK IT'S UP TODAY. IT WAS DOWN, UP, DOWN. THE VIX GOT OUT TO 28. A BETTER FIX HALFWAY BACK 23.9. IMPORTANTLY NASDAQ IMPROVES THIS FRIDAY AS WELL. I HAVE NO CLUE WHERE IT WILL BE AT 4:00 P.M.. SCARLET: IT'S NOT JUST THE NASDAQ, CHIPMAKERS IN PARTICULAR, THE PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX UP 4% AFTER FALLING 12% YESTERDAY. FOR THE WEEK ALL THREE STOCK INDEXES DOWN EVEN AS THE S&P EKES OUT AGAIN FOR TODAY. THE 10 YEAR YIELDS MOVING HIGHER BY ONE .5 BASIS POINTS AFTER STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED JOBS REPORT. WE WILL GET TO THAT SHORTLY. THE DOLLAR MOVES HIGHER, UP .6%. OIL PRICES DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT IT $90 A BARREL, TOO HIGH FOR MOST MOTORISTS. TOM: A BLOOMBERG CONVERSATION, THRILLED AND HONORED TO HAVE WITH US KAILEY LEINZ. 240 TWO HOURS, NONSTOP TV COVERAGE THIS WEEK. WITH US. MATTHEW HAS THE MONTH OFF. KAILEY LEINZ IS DRIVING THE SHIP. A GREAT ESSAY OUT OF THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE LAST 24 HOURS, WHERE WE ARE WITH OUR PERSONAL FINANCE SELECTION. GETS JOBS DAY. YOU SPOKE TO THE WHITE HOUSE. MICHAEL MCKEE IS WITH US. I HAVE NEVER SEEN HIM NOT HAPPY, IT WAS A HAPPY REPORT. MICHAEL: NEVER SEEN HIM NOT HAPPY? IS ALWAYS SMILING EVEN WHEN THE NEWS IS BAD. TODAY THEY HAD GOOD NEWS BECAUSE JOB CREATION WAS FAIRLY STRONG AND WE DID SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN COMPENSATION. SO THE ADMINISTRATION COULD BE HAPPY ABOUT THAT AND MAYBE DOWN THE ROAD IT WILL PAY OFF FOR THEM. TOM: WHY ARE WE SO MISERABLE ABOUT OUR PERSONAL FINANCE? MICHAEL: BECAUSE WE ARE STILL AT A POINT WHERE WE ARE FALLING BEHIND INFLATION ON OUR EARNINGS. DEPENDING ON HOW YOU MEASURE IT, AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ARE UP BY 3.1%. AND ON A ROLLING THREE-MONTH BASIS, SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 3.1% AND THREE .9%. YOU LOOK AT INFLATION, CPI IS 3.7%. PEOPLE ARE FEELING LIKE THEY CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND. SCARLET: IT'S THAT FEELING THAT DROVE DEMOCRATS TO SWEEP CONGRESS. YOU ARE COVERING THIS ALL NIGHT TUESDAY. THE DEMOCRATS WON BIG BUT NOT BIG ENOUGH TO OVERRIDE ANY VETOES FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP, AND THAT'S PRETTY MUCH WHAT HE SAID HE'S GOING TO DO. KAILEY: HE SUGGESTED HE COULD BE MR. VITO, WHICH WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR DEMOCRATS WHO WON VICTORIES BY CAMPAIGNING ON AFFORDABILITY AND TRYING TO ADDRESS COST AND PRICE CHALLENGES MIKE WAS SPEAKING TO YOU AS WE CONTINUALLY SEE WAGES NOT KEEPING PRICE WITH INFLATION. KEVIN HASSETT TOLD MIKE EARLIER LAWYER THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN'T SEE THE NEED TO MAKE MATERIAL ECONOMIC CHANGES EVEN AFTER MATURE RESULTS BUT DEMOCRATS WILL TRY TO ENFORCE THAT TO THE EXTENT THEY CAN. EVERY DEMOCRAT I'VE SPOKEN WITH LEADING UP TO THE ELECTION AND AFTERWARDS AT THE THREE THINGS THEY WANT TO TARGET ARE: HEALTH CARE SUBSIDIES -- RESTORING OBAMA CARE SUBSIDIES, RAINING BACK THE TARIFFS, RAINING BACK TO WORK WITH IRAN -- POTENTIALLY HOLDING DEFENSE APPROPRIATIONS HOSTAGE TO DO THAT. KANSAS AS WELL. THE DISTANCE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO ANOTHER WORLD, JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI, THE LONGEST 100 MILES IN AMERICA, AND THEY WERE RIVETED TO IT THIS WEEKEND. KAILEY: A RACE THAT IS STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL. DEMOCRAT SCOTT COLOM IS AHEAD OF SENATOR CINDY HYDE-SMITH BY ABOUT 100 VOTES. IT DOESN'T HAVE AN AUTOMATIC RECOUNT LAW SO THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE LEGAL RECOURSE FOR SENATOR HYDE-SMITH THAT SHE WANTS TO PURSUE A RECOUNT IF HE COMES OUT THE VICTOR. IF HE WINS IN MISSISSIPPI AND MARY COMES OUT VICTORIOUS IN ALASKA WHERE SHE IS CURRENTLY WINNING WE ARE LOOKING AT A SENATE MAJORITY OF 56 SEATS. IMPORTANT NOT JUST FOR THE TWO YEARS BUT FOR CYCLES TO COME, ESPECIALLY FOR LOOKING AT A NEW SOUTH THAT ACTUALLY HAS SOME DEMOCRATIC VIABILITY IS PROVEN BY WHAT'S HAPPENING IN MISSISSIPPI BUT ALSO WHAT WE SAW HAPPEN IN SOUTH CAROLINA, GEORGIA -- TOM: I DON'T GET IT. SCARLET: THAT'S WHY SHE'S KAILEY LEINZ. NIKKI WALLER, AS DEMOCRATS SWEEP THE POWER THEY FEEL THEY HAVE A MANDATE THEY NEED TO FULFILL. WHAT DO THE MIDTERMS MEAN FOR YOUR MONEY? HOW MUCH CHANGE CAN THEY AFFECT? >> NOT AS THEY WANT TO AFFECT IS THE QUICK ANSWER. WE ARE TRACKING A LOT OF TAX PROVISIONS AND SEEING WHAT TEMPORARY MEASURES FROM THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE EXTENDED, LIKE THE OVERTIME AND TAX ON TIPS MEASURES THAT HAVE PROVEN PRETTY POPULAR. A LOT OF OTHER PIECES OF THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ARE GOING TO BE HARDER TO SHAKE. WE ARE GOING TO BE LOOKING TO THEM TO DEAL WITH SOCIAL SECURITY BECAUSE A SOCIAL SECURITY CLIP IS COMING TO US IN ABOUT 3.5 YEARS, GIVE OR TAKE. SCARLET: THE GUYS JUST ELECTED ARE GOING TO BE THE ONES THAT NEED TO CONFRONT THEM? KATE: THE DEBATE WILL BE CUTTING AMERICANS BENEFITS OR RAISING REVENUE IN OTHER WAYS. TOM: HE WRITES MONEY DISTILLED AND IT IS AN INCREDIBLY ABRUPT PERSONAL FINANCE. THIS IS THE WAY IT IS. SAVE MONEY. WHAT DOES JOHN SAY ABOUT THIS MOMENT FOR AMERICA? KATE: JOHN IS WRITING A LOT -- NIKKI: JOHN IS WRITING ABOUT WHAT THE MIDTERMS MEAN FOR GLOBAL INVESTORS AND IF YOU SAW WHAT HE PUT OUT THIS MORNING LOOKING AT THE AI SWERVE IN MARKETS TODAY, FIRST OF ALL THIS COMES BACK TO SOME OF THE BASIC WISDOM THAT WE HAVE IN MONEY, WHICH IS TO KNOW WHAT'S IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. WE TALKED A COUPLE OF WEEKS ABOUT CONCENTRATION RISK AND THE FACT THAT EVEN IF WE THINK WE HAVE DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIOS WE ARE HEAVY INTO A LOT OF TECH STOCKS. IF YOU LOOK AT YOUR 401(K) THAT WILL BE -- TOM: IF YOU ABOUT THE S&P SINCE WORLD WAR II, 20 MIDTERM ELECTIONS YOU MADE MONEY EVERY TIME. SCARLET: SO YOU HAVE TO STAY IN IT. YOU DON'T MOVE OUT. YOU DON'T PANIC. YOU STAY COMMITTED. TOM: I WAS IN CASH ALREADY AND I'M STAYING IN CASH. SCARLET: YOU ARE COMMITTED TO CASH. PEOPLE'S FEELING ON THE PERSONAL FINANCE AND OUTLOOK DEPEND A LOT ON WHETHER THEY ARE EMPLOYED, MIKE. I WANT TO GO BACK TO THE JOBS REPORT. EVEN THOUGH IT WAS 160 5000 JOBS ADDED IN OCTOBER GROWTH HAS BEEN VERY UNEVEN MONTH TO MONTH. IT WASN'T THAT LONG AGO, JULY, THAT THE ECONOMY LOST 10,000 JOBS. MICHAEL: WE ARE SEEING THOSE NUMBERS GET REVISED UP. AT THIS POINT IT IS LOOKING LIKE A STRENGTHENING ECONOMY. TODAY'S NUMBER WAS SURPRISINGLY STRONG BECAUSE THE LABOR FORCE HAS BEEN SHRINKING AND OF THE ADMINISTRATIONS'S IMMIGRATION POLICIES HAVE BEEN A BIG REASON FOR THAT. WITH THE LABOR FORCE SHRINKING YOU NEED FEWER PEOPLE GETTING JOBS, WHICH IS WHY WE'VE SEEN THE MOBILE A 100,000. TO HAVE SOMETHING THAT IS THREE TIMES WHAT IS EXPECTED, IT DOES SUGGEST THE ECONOMY IS PICKING UP STEAM. DOES THAT END UP BEING SOMETHING THE FED OR CONGRESS HAS TO WORRY ABOUT? IT WILL BE INTERESTING BECAUSE YOU WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT WHAT CONGRESS CAN DO. THEY CAN'T DO A LOT TO BRING DOWN GASOLINE PRICES. THEY COULD DO A TEMPORARY SUSPENSION OF THE TEXT, BUT THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE A SHOT WITH THE -- WITH THE ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL PROVISIONS ON MEDICAID AND SNAP, THE CHILD FOOD BENEFITS. THEY'RE REALLY DETERMINED TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT THAT. I COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE STIMULUS TO THE ECONOMY NEXT YEAR. TOM: QUICKLY, I SPENT THE WHOLE WEEK TRYING TO PULL JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ, SO I HAVE TO ASK THE KAILEY LEINZ QUESTION. I LEARN NOT ONLY THE SHIFTING POPULATION STATE TO STATE, BUT FOR EXAMPLE, IN YORK VIRGINIA, THE SHIFTING POPULATIONS WITHIN A STATE, WHAT DO YOU -- IN YORK VIRGINIA, THE SHIFTING POPULATIONS WITHIN A STATE, WHAT DO YOU ENVISION 2030 AFTER THE CENSUS? KAILEY: THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR DEMOCRATS AFTER THE SENSES IN THAT SO MUCH OF THE POPULATION CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTH TO STATES THAT HISTORICALLY IN RECENT HISTORY HAVE BEEN RED. THE ABILITY TO SEE DEMOCRATIC VICTORY STATE WIDE IN STATES LIKE TEXAS AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND IS CRUCIAL TO DEMOCRATS AS THEY LOOK THE PRESIDENTIAL CYCLES AHEAD WHEN THEY ARE GOING TO NEED TO BE ABLE TO COMPETE IN THE CENTERS WHERE THERE ARE NOW HIGHER POPULATIONS AND WHERE STATES COULD BE GETTING MORE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES AS THEY TRY TO GET TWO TO 70. IF LESS OF AN ISSUE FOR 2028, BUT AFTER THAT CENSUS IS GOING TO BE A MUCH BIGGER DEAL. SCARLET: YOU THINK OF THE NORTHEAST KIDS THAT NOW GO TO COLLEGE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. IF THEY GO AND STAYED THERE THE POLITICS CHANGES AS WELL. TOM: ANNAPOLIS IS GOING TO WAKE FOREST. THERE ARE LIKE EIGHT GENERATIONS BACK TO WHEN THE YOUNGER REALLY GOT OFF THE MAYFLOWER, OR WHATEVER, AND SHE IS GOING TO WAIT FOR THE SOUTHERN KNOW GRATIAN IS AN OUTRAGE, GIVING UP ON THE NORTHERN SCHOOLS. --SOUTHERN MIGRATION IS AN OUTRAGE, GIVING UP ON THE NORTHERN SCHOOLS. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THE SHORT NOTICE, AND THANK YOU. MICHAEL MCKEE, SEVEN DAYS A WEEK. CAN YOU GET ON THE GULFSTREAM AND GO HOME? KAILEY: I HOPE SO, I HAVE A TODDLER WAITING FOR ME, BUT IT'S GREAT TO SEE YOU IN NEW YORK. TOM: WHAT A JOY AND PERFECTLY TIMED. KATE MOORE OF CITIGROUP WILL JOIN US. I CAN'T IMAGINE WHAT SHE'S GOING TO PUBLISH FROM MONDAY. SCARLET: LOOKING FORWARD TO WHAT SHE HAS TO STAY ABOUT -- HAS TO SAY ABOUT STOCKS AND GOLD IN PARTICULAR. THIS IS BLOOMBERG MONEY. >> YOU CAN CERTAINLY ASK HER TOM: PERSONAL FINANCE. WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO NEXT WEEK? SCARLET: I THINK INFLATION RUMORS. TOM: ARE THEY COMING OUT NEXT WEEK? I WILL HAVE TO SEE THAT. A GOOD CONVERSATION WITH KATE MOORE OF CITI WEALTH TO SYNTHESIZE EVERYTHING TOGETHER IS PERFECT ON A FRIDAY AFTER THE CACOPHONY OF THE WEEK. I WANT TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT THE SHORT TERMISM WHICH YOU FIGHT EVERY DAY AT CITIGROUP. YOU FIGHT IT EVERY SINGLE DAY. AND YET WE ARE ALL CAUGHT UP IN THE NARRATIVE. BRING UP THE CHART, THE OUIJA. THE CONTROL ROOM IS A LITTLE SHORT STAFFED TODAY. WE HAD A PARTY LAST NIGHT. WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN GET THE RIGHT CHART. IT IS THE CHART OF THE WEEK. THERE IT IS. IT IS FROM YALE. IT IS THE DOW WITH THE DEPRESSION DOWN AND UP, UP AWAY. WE CARE ABOUT POLITICS WHEN YOU LOOK AT A CHART LIKE THAT? KATE: WE HAVE TO CARE ABOUT POLITICS FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS. SOMETHING FRUSTRATING THIS WEEK IS HOW MUCH PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO PROJECT FUTURE POLICY INTO 2027. WE DON'T KNOW. I KNOW YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT POLITICS AND DEMOGRAPHICS AND EVERYTHING. THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND REPUBLICAN PARTY ARE NOT MONOLITHS. THERE ARE MAJOR FACTIONS WITHIN EACH. EVERYONE IS GOING TO HAVE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO WORK TOGETHER. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT POLICY IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS. PEOPLE ARE PROJECTING THEIR BIGGEST FEARS AROUND CHANGE INTO THE MARKET. WHAT I SAW OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS INCREDIBLY TECHNICAL AND NOT FUNDAMENTALLY DRIVEN. SCARLET: THE POLITICAL WISDOM IS THAT GRIDLOCK IS GOOD FOR MARKETS. I FEEL WE ARE MORE DIVISIVE THAN WE HAVE EVER BEEN IN MODERN TIMES. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWNS, DEBT CEILING SHOWDOWNS. THEY ARE KIND OF A NORMAL THING NOW, AND MARKETS TEND TO RECOVER. DO WE ASSUME THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER BECAUSE OVER THE LAST FIVE TO 10 YEARS, THEY HAVE? KATE: WE ARE REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. ONE OF THE THINGS WE ARE FOCUSED ON IS WHAT HAPPENS TO DEFICITS IN THE NEXT FOUR TO SIX YEARS. IT IS MY STRONGLY HELD CONVICTION THAT DEFICITS ARE GOING UP UNDER REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRATIC ADMINISTRATIONS. EVERYONE IS SPENDING OR CUTTING TAXES. THERE IS VERY LITTLE STOMACH AND DESIRE TO DO SOMETHING TO BE DEFICIT POSITIVE. THAT, WE HAVE TO BAKE INTO THE BACKGROUND. THAT IS AN ASSUMPTION WE CAN ALL HAVE. IN TERMS OF CHANGES -- TECHNOLOGY OR DATA CENTER DEVELOPMENT -- I THINK WE ARE GUESSING AT THAT POINT. IN A GRIDLOCKED CONGRESS THAT HAS TO FIND SOME WAYS TO AGREE IN ORDER TO POSITION ITSELF, EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUALS, FOR 2028, COULD BE GROWTH POSITIVE. TOM: THIS IS A PARAGRAPH SENTENCE FROM KATE MOORE. THIS JUMPED RIGHT OUT OF THE SCREEN. BEFORE THE ELECTION, DURING THE ELECTION. HERE IT IS RIGHT NOW. IT IS SIMPLY ON GOLD. WE REMAIN UNDERWEIGHT DURATION. THAT IS BOUND TO FOR TIME. GOLD IS A PARTIAL DURATION REPLACEMENT. YOU BRING UP THE CHART OF GOLD. THIS GOES BACK BEFORE NIXON, $35 AN OUNCE. THIS IS JUST GOLD. ALL THE PEOPLE SINGLE DOES NOT MATTER. YOU KNOW WHAT? YOU HAVE BEEN WRONG FOR 40 YEARS. YOU GO LONG GOLD. KATE: STAY LONG GOLD. AND WE GOT A LOT OF PUSHBACK AS GOLD WAS SWISHY LAST YEAR. TOM: EXCUSE ME, THAT IS JARGON. THAT IS CFA LEVEL FOUR. KATE: CFA JARGON AFTER A LONG WEEK. PEOPLE WOULD SAY IT IS AN ENVIRONMENT OF RISING YIELDS. WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO? I AM LOOKING AT THE OPPORTUNITY SIDE, EVERY ASSET YOU COULD PUT IN THE MULTI-ASSET PORTFOLIO, AND I CANNOT GET COMFORTABLE WITH ADDING DURATION TO PORTFOLIOS. WE HAVE BEEN UNDERWEIGHT FOR A LONG TIME, THE DURATION OF MY TIME AT CITI. HOW DO WE BALANCE OUR EQUITY RISK? WHAT MIGHT BE LESS CORRELATED? GOLD, AS WE TESTED IT, WAS PERFORMING A LOT OF THOSE QUALITIES. SCARLET: DOES GOLD REPLACE BONDS COMPLETELY, OR JUST PART OF YOUR BOND EXPOSURE? KATE: WE STILL HAVE PORTFOLIOS. OUR EXPECTATION IS THAT YIELDS ARE GOING TO RISE. WE SAW THAT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FISCAL SIDE COMBINED, AND SOME OF THE DATA ON THE LABOR MARKETS BEFORE THIS -- INCREDIBLY STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH GOING INTO 2027. THAT SHOULD ALL BE A GOOD BACKDROP FOR HIGHER REAL YIELDS. AND AT THE VERY LEAST, SUPPORT AT THESE LEVELS. TOM: CAN I DO AN AUDIBLE? DREW IS WATCHING. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING. ONE OF OUR VIEWERS. DREW SENDS IN A BLISTERING NOTE SAYING THEY ARE GOING TO UVA BECAUSE THEY WANT TO GO TO UVA. HE WENT SOUTH FOR SCHOOL, RIGHT? KATE: FOR MY UNDERGRAD. I DID. TOM: WHY IS THE SOUTH DIFFERENT? THREE BUT HE WANTS TO GO. PHOEBE IS GOING TO WAKE FOREST. WHY IS THIS? KATE: MY NIECE AND NEPHEW, WHO ARE SENIORS IN HIGH SCHOOL RIGHT NOW, ARE BOTH VERY FOCUSED ON A LOT OF THE SOUTHERN SCHOOLS, AS ARE A LOT OF THEIR PEERS. I THINK THE WEATHER HELPS, TO BE HONEST WITH YOU. I WOULD ALSO SUGGEST SOME BIG UNIVERSITIES ARE MORE APPEALING TO A LOT OF STUDENTS. YOU ARE GETTING LOTS OF DIFFERENT ACADEMIC CHALLENGES. AND THEY WANT THAT BREADTH INSTEAD OF THE MORE NARROW. TOM: ALL OF THEM EXCEPT CORNELL. SCARLET: DOES IT CHANGE WHAT WE THINK THE ECONOMY OF THE SOUTH IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE IN 15 YEARS? KATE: IT IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER PEOPLE STAY AFTER THEIR UNDERGRAD OR WHETHER THEY GO BACK TO MAJOR NORTHERN CITIES. SCARLET: IT IS MORE AFFORDABLE IN THE SOUTH, COMPARED TO THE NORTHEAST. KATE: I WAS FORCED TO WEAR A DRESS TO MY FIRST FOOTBALL GAME IN VIRGINIA, WHICH WAS REALLY UNSETTLING FOR ME. TOM HOLLAND THAT HE IS A FIRST FOR BLOOMBERG MONEY. WHAT DO CITIGROUP C WITH POPULATION CHANGE, THE REBUILDING OF THE NEW SOUTH? WE ARE GOING IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION. KATE: I WANT TO STEP BACK TO A BIGGER DEMOGRAPHIC THING I AM FOCUSED ON, WHICH IS THAT WITH CHANGES IN IMMIGRATION, WHICH WE DON'T EXPECT TO BE REVERSED ANYTIME SOON, WITH DECLINING POPULATIONS ACROSS THE DEVELOPING WORLD, GOVERNMENTS AND COMPANIES HAVE TO THINK ABOUT HOW WE GET THE WORKERS WE NEED IN ORDER TO PRODUCE OR TO SERVE, WHETHER WE ARE TALKING ABOUT GOODS OR SERVICES. THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY, IN ADDITION TO THE TECHNOLOGY THAT HAS COME OUT, WE HAVE BEEN POUNDING THE TABLE ON PHYSICAL AI. SOMETHING I HAVE BEEN FIXATED ON IS THE IDEA THAT AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR, WE HAD JUST OVER 400,000 UNFILLED MANUFACTURING JOBS. IT IS 25% HIGHER HERE IN 2026. THIS IS WITHOUT A MASSIVE EXPANSION IN THE U.S., SOMETHING PEOPLE EXPECT TO BE LARGER GOING FORWARD. PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO DO THESE MANUFACTURING JOBS. THE YOUNGER GENERATIONS WANT TO BE INFLUENCERS OR WHATEVER IT IS. SO DEMOGRAPHICS AND WORKER PREFERENCE ARE GOING TO DRIVE A DIFFERENT LAYER OF INVESTMENT. SCARLET: IT HAS A HUGE IMPLICATION, HOW YOU THINK ABOUT HOW THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO GO. KATE, YOUR GOING TO STICK WITH US. KATE MOORE OF CITIGROUP. WHAT WILL THE NEXT TWO YEARS OF THIS TRUMP ADMINISTRATION MEAN FOR YOUR WALLET? WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE POLITICAL WEIGHT ON THE U.S. ECONOMY WITH OUR BLOOMBERG OPINION SENIOR EXECUTIVE EDITOR. MORE COMING UP. KEEP IT HERE. TOM: BLOOMBERG MONEY, AND WE SAY GOOD NOON TO YOU. SCARLET FU AND TOM KEENE SURVIVING TO THE WEEK. SCARLET: WE ARE GETTING THROUGH IT. KATE MOORE IS HERE TO HELP US. YOU WERE TELLING US HE WOULD RECOMMEND GOLD NOT IN PLACE OF BONDS, BUT MAYBE REPLACING SOME BONDS. KATE: SUBBING. SCARLET: IS THAT WHAT YOU DO FOR YOUR PERSONAL PORTFOLIO? KATE: I DON'T OWN ANY BONDS IN MY PERSONAL PORTFOLIO, BUT I DO OWN GOLD AS A BALLAST TO MY GROWTH TILTED EQUITY PORTFOLIO. I AM IN A PLACE AT THIS POINT IN MY LIFE WHERE I CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR CAPITAL APPRECIATION, BUT I AM ALSO A PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR. I AM COMFORTABLE WITH VOLATILITY. DRAWDOWNS DO NOT KEEP ME UP AT NIGHT BECAUSE I BELIEVE IN THE COMPOUNDING POSSIBILITIES AND THE FUTURE OF GROWTH EQUITIES. SCARLET: GROWTH STOCKS AND GOLD. HOW DO YOU EXPRESS THAT? KATE: GOLD I OWN IN ETF FORM. SCARLET: NO PHYSICAL GOLD FOR YOU? K: EXCEPT IN JEWELRY. I OWN A GLOBAL, DIVERSIFIED SET OF STOCKS AND A COUPLE OF SPECIFIC STRATEGIES. AS YOU CAN IMAGINE IN MY JOB AND PREVIOUS JOB, IT IS RESTRICTIVE. SO IN SOME CASES I HAVE TO USE SOMEONE ELSE'S STRATEGY TO EXPRESS MY VIEW. FORTUNATELY, THESE ARE PEOPLE I HAVE KNOWN IN THE BUSINESS FOR A LONG TIME. TOM: I AM GOING TO HAVE YOU BACK IN JANUARY TO TALK ABOUT A SINGLE STATEMENT. I DON'T KNOW BALANCE. THAT IS A PROFOUND STATEMENT ON BLOOMBERG MONEY. SCARLET: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US TODAY. DON'T FORGET TO CHECK OUT THE BLOOMBERG MONEY NEWSLETTER FOR THE LATEST STORIES ABOUT YOUR MONEY. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK. THAT WAS GREAT. TOM: WELCOME BACK. BLOOMBERG MONEY HERE. PERSONAL FINANCE AND RETIREMENT, WEALTH MANAGEMENT AS WELL. MARKETS LIFTING THE DAY. I GUESS THAT MEANS MONDAY WE WILL GO DOWN. SCARLET: THIS IS BLOOMBERG MONEY, YOUR DESTINATION FOR PERSONAL FINANCE, A CROSS-PLATFORM EFFORT THAT EXTENDS BEYOND YOUR TELEVISION, INCLUDING OUR DIGITAL HUB AT BLOOMBERG.COM/MONEY. ONE STORY THAT CAUGHT OUR EYE AND IS SUPER RELEVANT IS ABOUT CYCLE. WE SAW THAT ON ELECTION NIGHT WITH THE BLUE WAVE. >> PEOPLE ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM ARE HUNGRY FOR A DIFFERENT KIND OF POLITICS. >> TONIGHT'S RESULTS ARE A WAKE-UP CALL FOR CORPORATE SPECIAL INTERESTS AND BILLIONAIRES WHO HAVE BEEN RAKING THE ECONOMY. FOR THE COWARDS IN CONGRESS WHO HAVE ENABLED HEALTH CARE CUTS, TARIFFS, AND WAR. >> I WILL WORK WITH ANYONE TO PROVIDE RELIEF TO THE PEOPLE OF MICHIGAN, INCLUDING PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. >> MY NAME IS ABDUL MOHAMMED EL-SAYED. WE ALL KNOW MY NAME AND MY FAITH ARE NOT THE REASON YOU CAN'T AFFORD YOUR GAS. >> THIS IS ALL ABOUT THE ECONOMY, MAKING SURE THAT PEOPLE WHO WORK A FULL-TIME JOB CAN FEED THERE CAN -- FEED THEIR CARE. THEY ARE PUTTING PEOPLE FIRST SO YOU CAN MAKE A LIVING, AFFORD YOUR HEALTH CARE. IT'S A VOTE FOR AFFORDABILITY. A VOTE TO MAKE SURE IF I'M A FARMER IN IOWA OR KANSAS, I CAN MAKE A LIVING. TARIFFS HAVE BEEN A KILLER. >> WE ARE GOING TO DRIVE DOWN COSTS FOR THE PEOPLE OF THIS STATE, LOWER INSURANCE PREMIUMS, MAKE HOUSING MORE AFFORDABLE. >> WE ARE GOING TO FIGHT HARD TO MAKE SURE THAT WE CAN ENSURE THAT EVERY SINGLE AMERICAN CAN AFFORD TO GO SEE A DOCTOR WHEN THEY NEED ONE. SCARLET: BLOOMBERG NEWS BOSTON BUREAU CHIEF BROOKE SUTHERLAND WAS OUT IN THE FIELD ON ELECTION NIGHT IN MAINE, AND SHE IS HERE WITH US. I COUNTED ONE REPUBLICAN IN THOSE SOUND, FROM FLORIDA. YOU WERE COVERING THAT RACE OUT IN MAINE. DID SHE TALK ABOUT AFFORDABILITY ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL? BROOKE: SHE DID. IT WAS AN INTERESTING MICROCOSM OF THIS DEBATE IN TERMS OF WHO IS TO BLAME FOR AFFORDABILITY CHALLENGES, BECAUSE SUSAN COLLINS' OPPONENT WAS TROY JACKSON, WHO SPENT A LONG TIME IN THE MAINE STATE LEGISLATURE. COLLINS UNSUCCESSFULLY TRIED TO MAKE THE CASE THAT THE COST OF LIVING WAS A STATE ISSUE, NOT A MESSAGE THAT RESONATED WITH MAINE VOTERS, AS WE SAW JACKSON PROVING VICTORIOUS. HEATING OIL COSTS WERE VERY TOP OF MIND. IT IS STARTING TO GET COLD IN MAINE AND HEATING OIL COSTS ARE HITTING A RECORD. JACKSON SUCCESSFULLY TIED THAT TO THE WAR IN IRAN. SCARLET: YOU ARE FROM KANSAS ORIGINALLY. TOM WAS JAZZED TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING IN KANSAS BECAUSE WE DIDN'T THINK THE DEMOCRATS WOULD GET SOMETHING OTHER THAN THE REPUBLICAN. BROOKE: THAT WAS A SURPRISE HOW CLOSE THAT RACE WAS. WHAT'S INTERESTING IS ADAM HAMILTON IS NOT YOUR TRADITIONAL DEMOCRAT. HE WAS A REPUBLICAN UNTIL FEBRUARY, SO HE WAS VERY MUCH RUNNING AS A MODERATE, AND HE TAPPED INTO THAT ANGST OVER IMPORTS. TOM: WE LOST THE PUNCHLINE. YOUR GREAT-GRANDPARENTS LIVED NEXT TO AUNTIE EM IN THE WIZARD OF OZ. I GET IT, KANSAS IS DIFFERENT. WHEN THE PRESIDENT IS GONE, WHAT WILL ALL THOSE DISAFFECTED KANSANS DO? BROOKE: IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. I DON'T THINK YOU CAN COME IN THERE WITH A FAR LEFT DEMOCRAT, BUT KANSAS HAS HAD A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR FOR TWO TERMS, SO THIS IS MORE OF A PURPLE STAY THAN PEOPLE GIVE CREDIT FOR. THERE IS A LOT OF ANGST ABOUT THIS PARTICULAR MOMENT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE FARMING COMMUNITY. IMMIGRATION IS A TOPIC THAT DID NOT PLAY WELL WITH FARMERS, BECAUSE THEY WERE HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING WORKERS. IMMIGRATION RAIDS WERE KEEPING PEOPLE AT HOME. THIS WAS A UNIQUE MOMENT FOR KANSAS, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF THEMES THAT MIGHT CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE ADAM HAMILTON FOLLOWING THROUGH ON SOME TOPICS THAT HE TALKED ABOUT. KANSAS. HE HAS TALKED A LOT ABOUT BRINGING DOWN THE. NATIONAL DEBT. THESE ARE MESSAGES THAT CAN CONTINUE TO WORK IN KANSAS. SCARLET: THANK YOU, BROOKE SUTHERLAND, OUR BLOOMBERG BOSTON BUREAU CHIEF. SHE WAS REPORTING IN PORTLAND, MAINE. SHE'S GOING TO HEAD BACK TO BOSTON, WHERE IT'S COLD AND SHE HAS GOT TO PAY FOR HEATING OIL. TOM: ON MONDAY, WE WILL STOP TALKING ABOUT POLITICS. TIM O'BRIEN WON'T. HE IS SENIOR EXECUTIVE EDITOR, BLOOMBERG OPINION, WHICH BARELY DESCRIBES HIS HOLISTIC VIEW OF OUR POLITICAL ECONOMY. HIS WORK ON PRESIDENT TRUMP IS FLAT-OUT DEFINITIVE. I WANT TO TALK TO YOU THE CAUCUSES. THEY ARE -- THERE ARE CENTRIST DEMOCRATS, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS, THEY HAVE TWO SEPARATE CAUCUSES. WHAT'S THE BODY LANGUAGE GOING TO BE LIKE IN THOSE FIRST 100 AND 200 PEOPLE CAUCUSES? TIM: I HOPE THE BODY LANGUAGE IS THEY WANT TO WORK TOGETHER TO FIND COMMON SOLUTIONS TO THE PROBLEMS AMERICANS ARE EXPERIENCING, AND THEY DON'T -- AND THAT THEY DON'T MISTAKE THE PHENOMENAL WIND IN THEIR SALES, WHICH THEY GOT FROM THIS ELECTION. IT'S A HISTORIC ELECTION, A MANDATE FOR CHANGE, BUT VOTERS HAVE MOVED BETWEEN THE PARTIES WITH GREAT RAPIDITY AND IN HUGE NUMBERS FOR A NUMBER OF CYCLES. I DON'T THINK DEMOCRATS SHOULD TAKE LATINO VOTERS AS A PERMANENT MEMBER OF THEIR COALITION, YOUNGER VOTERS. WE GO DOWN THE LINE. THE WAY YOU KEEP VOTERS IN YOUR TENT IS YOU SOLVE PROBLEMS FOR THEM. AFFORDABILITY IS THE MAJOR PIECE OF FURNITURE. TOM: WRAPPING YOUR WORLD AND PERSONAL-FINANCE. WE ARE DOING A FANCY SHOW HERE, TALKING DURATION ON GOLD WITH KATE MOORE. A HUGE BODY OF AMERICANS DON'T HAVE THAT PERSONAL-FINANCE DREAM ANYMORE. TIM: NOT ENOUGH OF THEM HAVE EXPOSURE TO MARKETS AND THE EXPOSURE TO THE UPSIDE THAT COMES WITH EQUITY INVESTING, THE WAY TO CREATE WEALTH. MOST PEOPLE'S PERSONAL WEALTH IS STILL TIED UP IN HOMES. TO EXPAND THAT, I THINK THEY NEED TO HAVE FAITH IN THE IDEA THAT THINGS ARE CONSTANTLY VOLATILE, WHETHER IT'S THE MACROECONOMY OR THE MARKETS THEMSELVES. THEY NEED TO HAVE THE KIND OF WAGES THAT GENERATE EXCESS MONEY TO SAVE FOR GOALS, INCLUDING RETIREMENT. AND THEY NEED TO BELIEVE THE POLITICAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THEM. SCARLET: YOU MENTIONED IT'S HARD FOR THE DEMOCRATS TO DO MUCH ON AFFORDABILITY WITHIN TWO YEARS. IF PRESIDENT TRUMP WORKS WITH THEM, IT MIGHT BE MORE POSSIBLE. HE DID GIVE INITIAL INDICATION HE IS PREPARED TO WORK WITH DEMOCRATS. DO YOU BELIEVE THAT? TIM: WE WILL SEE. HE IS NOT SOMEBODY WHO WHEN CORNERED WANTS TO HOLD HANDS WITH PEOPLE. HE TENDS TO LASH BACK. I DO THINK THERE'S THINGS I THINK THERE WOULD BE BIPARTISAN SUPPORT ON, REGARDLESS OF TRUMP, TO ADDRESS TARIFFS AND THE WAR IN IRAN. IF THE WAR AND THE IRRATIONAL PARTS OF THE TARIFF POLICIES GOT WOUND DOWN, YOU WOULD GET A QUICK AND EARLY MACROECONOMIC BOMB FROM THAT. THE LARGER THINGS TO PURSUE OUR HOW TO DELIVER HEALTH CARE TO AVERAGE VOTERS, AFFORDABLE, RELIABLE HEALTH CARE BETTER WAGES AND OPPORTUNITIES. TOM: YOU MORE THAN ANYONE I KNOW IS DEFINITIVE ON THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES. IT WAS A BOOK A NUMBER OF YEARS AGO WHERE TIM O'BRIEN LOOKED INTO A YOUNGER DONALD TRUMP. THIS VIGNETTE IS GREAT, FROM A RECENT O'BRIEN ESSAY. HE WANTS DISMISSED THE IDEA OF SEEING A THERAPIST, WHEN I INQUIRED AS WE DROVE TO HIS NEW JERSEY GOLF COURSE. I HAVE FOUND I AM NOT A DISBELIEVER IN IT. THEN HE SWITCHES, AS TRUMP CAN DO, AND SAYS HE HAS GOT SOME PROBLEM WITH THE STABILITY OF IT ALL. YOU MORE THAN ANYONE IS GOING TO HELP US GET TO DONALD TRUMP 81, 82, AND BEYOND. HOW SIGNIFICANTLY DO YOU SEE HIM CHANGING FROM THE TIME YOU DID YOUR ICONIC BOOK? TIM: HE IS CLEARLY OLDER. HE BECAME PRESIDENT. I THINK HE FORGOT THE LESSONS OF THE 2024 CAMPAIGN. YOU CAN ARGUE THAT JOE BIDEN LOST REELECTION WHEN INFLATION STARTED SOARING IN 2022 OR SO. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT KEPT PRESIDENT TRUMP ALOFT WAS HE WAS A LOT OF AVERAGE PEOPLE'S IDEA OF WHAT YOU WOULD DO IF YOU WON THE LOTTERY, HOW YOU WOULD LIVE YOUR LIFE. SCARLET: ASPIRATIONAL. TIM: PART OF PERSONAL-FINANCE IS ABOUT THAT. AND I THINK HE WAS DOING ALL THESE THINGS THAT LOST SIGHT OF THAT. HE SAID HE WASN'T GOING TO GO TO WAR. HE WENT TO WAR. HE SAID HE WOULD MAKE THE ECONOMY STRONGER. HE PURSUED INFLATIONARY POLICIES. NO ONE FELT THERE WHILE IT WAS STRONGER RIGHT BEFORE THIS ELECTION, AND HE PAID THE PRICE. SCARLET: WE KNOW FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS, HE'S GOING TO BE IN LEGACY BUILDING MODE, WANTS TO LEAVE SOMETHING THAT WILL END DEAR. IS THERE ANY COMMON GROUND BETWEEN HIM AND THE DEMOCRATS THAT HE IS CAPABLE OF COLLABORATING ON THAT FITS WITH HIS WORLDVIEW? TIM: THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION, BECAUSE WHAT I THINK HE SEES AS HIS LEGACY IS THE TRIUMPHAL ARCH AND A BIG BALLROOM ON THE WHITE HOUSE. REAL ESTATE WITH HIS NAME ON IT. AND THE LEGACY THAT HIS VOTERS WANT IS A BETTER AND MORE AFFORDABLE AMERICA. TOM: YOU ARE A PROFESSIONAL AT HERDING CATS. THIS MORNING YOU HEARD DAVID DRUCKER WITH A BRILLIANT BLOOMBERG OPINION ESSAY, TALKING ABOUT THE SENATOR FROM NEW YORK CALLING DEMOCRATS INTO THE 21ST CENTURY. TALK ABOUT THE SCHUMER-JEFFRIES SHIFT THAT HAS TO HAPPEN. TIM: BOTH MEN GOT A LOT OF HEAT. THE DEMOCRATS WERE NOT POPULAR, THEY WERE NOT PUTTING CANDIDATES IN WHO COULD GET ELECTED. AND NOW WE LEARN THAT THEY ACTUALLY HELPED ENGINEER AND HISTORIC WIN. THEY WERE SMART ABOUT FINDING MODERATES IN STATES WHERE THE VOTERS WANTED A MODERATE, PROGRESSIVES IN STATES LIKE MICHIGAN, WHERE THEY WERE HAPPY TO HAVE A PROGRESSIVE. THE CHALLENGE, AS DAVID POINTS OUT, IS THEY LET A THOUSAND FLOWERS BLOOM BUT NOW THEY HAVE TO MAKE SURE THEY CAN KEEP GROWING THAT MANDATE. THAT'S GOING TO COME DOWN TO SOME HARD-NOSED POLITICKING TO GET POLICY OUT THE DOOR. SCARLET: HERDING CATS IN A BIG WAY. THANK YOU SO MUCH. TOM: WE HAVE TO DISMISS TIM O'BRIEN BECAUSE WE HAVE BREAKING NEWS. SCARLET: HE IS OUR SENIOR EXECUTIVE EDITOR AT BLOOMBERG OPINION. BREAKING NEWS IS THAT MICROSOFT IS WINDING DOWN ITS DEAL WITH ORACLE TO RENT A ICLOUD CAPACITY. ORACLE SHARES NOW DOWN MORE THAN 3%. THIS GOES BACK TO THE IDEA THAT WHAT WE ARE SEEING WITH THE AI TRADE SLOWING DOWN, SOME MIGHT SAY COLLAPSING. IT'S COMING TO FRUITION AS WE SEE HIGHER COSTS EMBEDDED IN THE AI BUILDOUT, AND THERE'S QUESTIONS OVER WHETHER THAT WILL PROCEED AS PLANNED. TOM: I CAN'T EMPHASIZE ENOUGH HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT WITHIN THE BOND MARKET. ORACLE BONDS, COREWEAVE BONDS. SCARLET: AND THE CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS THAT PEOPLE BUY TO ENSURE AGAINST POTENTIAL DEFAULTS. COMING UP, THE STATE OF FINANCIAL LITERACY IN AMERICA. WE DIG INTO THAT AND HOW IT COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING YEARS WITH ANNAMARIA LUSARDI, STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY AND RESEARCH SENIOR FELLOW. TOM: BLOOMBERG MONEY, GOOD AFTERNOON TO YOU. ON RETIREMENT, PERSONAL-FINANCE, WEALTH MANAGEMENT. WE ARE PROMISING NEXT WEEK WE WILL TRY TO GET BACK ON TRACK. SCARLET: WE ARE STILL DIGESTING ALL OF IT. THE STOCK MARKET IS AS WELL, BECAUSE WE HAVE COME BACK FROM YESTERDAY'S BIG LOSSES BUT FADED SOME GAINS. THE S&P 500 UP .5%, THE NASDAQ GAINING MORE THAN 1%, ALTHOUGH WE DID JUST GET NEWS ABOUT MICROSOFT WINDING DOWN AN ORACLE DEAL TO RENT AI CLOUD CAPACITY. SO ORACLE HAS TURNED NEGATIVE AND THE VIX HAS EASED FROM 28 TO 25. TOM: 28 TO 25 HELPS US OUT. THERE IS A CROSS ASSET RIGHT NOW THAT WE WANT TO DO. YIELDS FLAT AFTER SOME REAL DYNAMICS OFF THAT KILLER JOBS REPORT. THANK YOU FOR PUTTING THIS UP, LUIGI. STRONGER DOLLAR, AND I'M WATCHING JAPANESE YEN, WHICH IS NOT COOPERATING. THAT'S INSIDE BASEBALL, BUT THAT'S OK. I WANT TO DO A PREFACE, BECAUSE JOHN CHAUVIN IS ONE OF MY HEROES. OUT OF STANFORD YEARS AGO, THE STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY, JOHN TAYLOR SAID, TOM, YOU GOT TO COME OUT. AND THERE WAS JOHN CHAUVIN AND MICHAEL BOSC AND AND OTHER BRILLIANCES LEADING THE WAY. THEY BEGAN A COTTAGE INDUSTRY OUT OF ONE COURSE, ECONOMICS 43, ON FINANCIAL LITERACY. THEY FOUND A YOUNG PROFESSOR ON THE EAST COAST AND SAID, YOU ARE THE CHOSEN TO DRIVE IT FORWARD. SCARLET: WE ARE PLEASED TO WELCOME HER, ANNAMARIA LUSARDI, SENIOR FELLOW AT THE STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY. TOM TALKS ABOUT A CLASS ON FINANCIAL LITERACY IN COLLEGE. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE HIGH SCHOOLS OFFER THAT AS WELL. THE COLLEGE BOARD IS OFFERING AP BUSINESS WITH A PERSONAL-FINANCE COURSE AND EXAM. DO YOU THINK THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HELP AMERICANS GET MORE FINANCIALLY LITERATE, MAYBE EVEN INVESTMENT LITERATE? ANNAMARIA: ABSOLUTELY. IT IS NECESSARY, WE NEED TO START AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, AND WE NEEDED IN EVERY STATE, NOT SCHOOL. YOUNG PEOPLE FACE A DIFFERENT WORLD AND NEED TO START INVESTING AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT MOVEMENT AND I HOPE THE ACTION GOES FORWARD TO HAVE MANY MORE COURSES. SCARLET: YOU WERE TELLING ME THERE'S A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FINANCIAL AND INVESTMENT LITERACY. A STUDY FOUND PEOPLE WHO HAVE SOME INVESTMENT LITERACY CAN BE MORE DANGEROUS THAN NONE, BECAUSE THAT ENCOURAGES RISK-TAKING. TELL ME MORE ABOUT THAT. ANNAMARIA: A STUDY WE DID RECENTLY WITH THE FINRA INVESTOR SURVEY. WE FOUND FINANCIAL LITERACY IS THE KNOWLEDGE OF THE BASIC CONCEPTS, NOT JUST INVESTMENT. SO KNOWING INTEREST COMPOUNDING, KNOWING INFLATION, AND SO ON. INVESTING. WHAT WE FIND IS THAT THE PEOPLE WHO ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THAT INVESTMENT AND FINANCIAL LITERACY OFTEN CANNOT DETECT A SCAM. SCARLET: THEY FALL VICTIM TO IT. TOM: YEAH, I SEND A NASTY LETTER TO A MAJOR PROVIDER OF THE OTHER DAY. I COULDN'T TELL IF IT WAS THEM OR A SCAM. THAT'S HOW PERVASIVE IT IS. THERE IS AN OPTIMISM TO THE STANFORD EXPERIMENT, THE ACADEMICS THAT GO BACK DECADES. AT BLOOMBERG, WE FOUGHT THE GLOOM AS WELL. MATT WINKLER, THE FOUNDER OF BLOOMBERG NEWS, JOHN MICKLETHWAIT, OUR EDITOR-IN-CHIEF NOW. EVERY DAY WE TRIED TO FIGHT THE GLOOM. HOW DOES THE MEDIA GLOOM COLOR OUR FINANCIAL LITERACY? ANNAMARIA: I THINK WE NEED TO BE OPTIMISTIC THAT WE ARE GOING TO FIGHT THIS LOW LEVEL OF FINANCIAL LITERACY. THE INITIATIVE YOU ARE DOING HERE, PROVIDING NEWS, THAT'S IMPORTANT FOR ALSO HELPING THE POPULATION BECOME MORE FINANCIALLY LITERATE. THIS IS HOW WE ARE FIGHTING THE GLOOM. THE STATISTICS ARE GLOOMY. TOM: BUT THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT. BASICALLY PEOPLE ARE UNDER INVESTED IN EQUITIES BECAUSE THEY ARE WORRIED. AND I WOULD SUGGEST IT'S FED BY SO MUCH OF THE FINANCIAL MEDIA. THE TENSION IS WHAT THE MEDIA IS ADDICTED TO. SCARLET: THAT'S WHAT PEOPLE ARE TAUGHT IN JOURNALISM SCHOOL TO FOCUS ON. ANNAMARIA: ONE THING WE FIND IS THAT RISK AND RISK DIVERSIFICATION IS THE TOPIC THAT PEOPLE KNOW THE LEAST. IN ORDER TO GET LESS GLOOMY AND HAVE MORE PEOPLE INVESTED, WE REALLY NEED TO INVEST IN FINANCIAL LITERACY. SCARLET: DO THEY INCLUDE REDDIT AND TIKTOK? THEY FEATURE INFLUENCERS OFFERING ADVICE ON THINGS FROM BUDGETING TO CREDIT SCORE HACKS TO OPTIONS TRADING, AND THIS HAS MADE FINANCIAL LITERACY AREA ACCESSIBLE, PARTICULARLY TO GEN Z. HOW WOULD YOU GRADE THEM? ANNAMARIA: I AM SKEPTICAL BECAUSE THERE IS SUCH A VARIETY OF QUALITY. SOME OF THESE TOPICS ARE VERY COMPLEX. THAT'S WHY WE TJ IN STANFORD AND WE HAVE PHD ECONOMISTS WHICH TEACH THESE TOPICS. THE FACT YOU WANT TO SIMPLIFY A CONCEPT DOESN'T MEAN THE CONCEPT IS SIMPLE. WE NEED QUALITY, AND I THINK SCHOOLS ARE BETTER SUITED TO TEACH THIS THAN SOCIAL MEDIA. TOM: ONE OF THE GREAT THINGS YOU HAVE ALLUDED TO IS THAT WE FAILED COMING OUT OF 74. WE ARE ALL LATE. 42, I THINK I WILL START. KIDS TODAY HAVE LOOKED AT THE FOSSILS AND SAID, WE HAVE TO DO BETTER. OUR GRANDCHILDREN, WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO WITH THIS DISASTROUS AMERICAN RETIREMENT SYSTEM? ANNAMARIA: I HOPE WE ARE GOING TO BETTER PREPARE THEM FOR THIS. STARTING SCHOOL AS SOON AS POSSIBLE IS GOING TO BE HELPFUL. I ALSO THINK THIS MOVEMENT OF INVESTING VERY EARLY ON WHEN PEOPLE ARE BORN, OR STARTING INVESTING -- EVEN THE TRUMP ACCOUNTS. WE NEED PEOPLE TO BE EXPOSED TO THAT KNOWLEDGE. ALSO THIS IDEA THAT THE MONEY IS GOING TO BE INVESTED IN STOCK INDEX FUND WITH VERY LOW COST IS A GOOD EXPERIMENT. ALSO WE NEED TO USE TIME. YOUNG PEOPLE HAVE A GREAT RESOURCE. THEY ARE ALL RICH IN TIME AND NEED TO USE THEM IN THEIR FAVOR. SCARLET: WHAT DO THEY UNDERSTAND ABOUT PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR THEIR OWN RETIREMENT THAT THEIR PARENTS DON'T NEED TO WORRY ABOUT? AS A GEN X, I AM CONVINCED THAT SOCIAL SECURITY WILL BE INSOLVENT EITHER TIME I RETIRE AND I'M GOING TO HAVE TO RELY ON MY 401(K) AND WHATEVER ELSE I OWN. ANNAMARIA: I ACTUALLY DON'T THINK SOCIAL SECURITY IS GOING TO WEIGH, BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE -- GOING TO GO AWAY, BUT IT WILL BE SCALED BACK. WE NEED TO MAKE SURE YOUNG PEOPLE ARE BETTER PREPARED FOR THE FUTURE AND START AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. I THINK WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THEY ARE AWARE THAT MANY MORE DECISIONS AND MUCH MORE OF THEIR FINANCIAL SECURITY DEPENDS ON THEMSELVES. TOM: I'M DEPRESSED. SCARLET IS A GEN X AND I'M NOT? SCARLET: IN SPIRIT. TOM: PROFESSOR, THIS IS SO IMPORTANT. WHAT IS THE INTERNATIONAL MODEL THAT YOU WOULD SAY IS THE BEST BLOOMBERG MONEY MODEL? AUSTRALIA, THE NETHERLANDS? WHAT'S THE NATION THAT GETS THIS RIGHT? ANNAMARIA: I HAVE A FAVORITE NATION TO SUGGEST, FINLAND. THE REASON I LIKE FINLAND'S THEY ARE VERY BOLD IN THEIR OBJECTIVE. THEY CAME TO FINANCIAL LITERACY RELATIVELY LATER THAN OTHER COUNTRIES, SO I'M GLAD YOU MENTIONED NEW ZEALAND AND AUSTRALIA, WHICH HAVE STARTED LOOKING AT FINANCIAL LITERACY EARLIER ON. BUT FINLAND SAID, BY 2030 WE WANT TO BE THE MOST FINANCIALLY LITERATE COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. I LOVE THAT CHALLENGE AND AMBITION AND I THINK WE SHOULD ALL STRIVE TO DO BETTER IN FINANCIAL LITERACY. NEED. SCARLET: THEY ARE PUTTING RESOURCES BEHIND THAT INTENTION. REALLY INTERESTING, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. ANNAMARIA LUSARDI OF STANFORD. COMING UP ON BLOOMBERG MONEY, SOMEHOW IT IS ONLY EARLY NOVEMBER. HOLIDAY SHOPPING IS UPON US. IT'S BEEN THE CASE SINCE SEPTEMBER, ACCORDING TO COSTCO, AND WE KNOW WHO GOES TO COSTCO. TOM: WE DO. NEXT, BLOOMBERG MONEY'S COSTCO CORRESPONDENT. SCARLET: LISA MATEO WILL BE JOINING US NEXT. BLOOMBERG MONEY, GOOD AFTERNOON EVERYBODY. I’M TOO UPSET, I WAS WALKING DOWN LEXINGTON AVENUE TODAY, BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND LISA MATEO SHE WAS PRAYING FOR JULY DECORATIONS. WHY DO WE HAVE THIS IDIOTIC CHRISTMAS CREEP? SCARLET: IN COSTCO THE DECORATIONS WERE OUT IN AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, CRAZY. THE CHRISTMAS MUSIC WAS PLAYING THIS WEEKEND. IS IT THE SMART MONEY MOVE TO START BUYING NOW? >> I KIND OF TRUST COSTCO IN ALL THINGS. IF YOU START NOW, YOU ARE SAVING MONEY BECAUSE YOU HAVE TIME TO DO THESE THINGS, ENOUGH TIME WITH RETURNS. BUT THE BAD SIDE IS YOU CAN OVERSPEND, TOO. SCARLET: YOU HAVE TO FIND SOMEPLACE THAT TAKES RETURNS, THE KEY PART. BUT THAT TAKES TIME AND MONEY AS WELL. LISA MATEO, THANK YOU SO MUCH. WATCH BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND WITH LISA EVERY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY STARTING AT 7:00 EASTERN TIME. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.","textShort":"'Blue Wave' & Your Wallet, Managing Market Volatility\n\nTOM: GOOD NOON EVERYONE, BLOOMBERG MONEY, PERSONAL FINANCE, RETIREMENT, WEALTH MANAGEMENT AND A WELLNESS SHOW AFTER SURVIVING THIS WEEK. WE ALL SURVIVED IT. WE WILL BE TALKING WELLNESS TODAY. SCARLET: I AM WHIPLASH FROM…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAJWKG1MBMU"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T21:10:33.632Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"be13bc60-bc06-40e4-a983-43bce0241e9b","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Even if 20% of datacentres don't happen, it's 4 to 1 for the next two years","800 to 1000 data centers that are going to get built"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Ives expects substantial data-center construction to continue, arguing that demand will remain ahead of supply even if some projects do not happen.","topic":"ai data center buildout"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["it's a negative for the eye builder","this party's not ending because of the blue tidal wave"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"Ives says political uncertainty and the blue wave have weighed on AI-related names, but he does not expect them to end the AI boom.","topic":"blue wave impact on ai"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["the regulatory path there definitely increased","I still think that deal does get done"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"Ives expects the SpaceX merger deal to happen but says its regulatory path has become more difficult.","topic":"spacex merger outlook"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"para:SMH","confidence":0.67,"dex":"para","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":463.81,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T21:10:18.105Z","headline":"Ives says the bearish outlook for semiconductors is wrong","id":"sig_537e32e937c34a3aacfb4bf4","matched":["in semis","factually wrong"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"Ives rejects the view that data-center capacity limits will lead to cuts across semiconductors, supporting the semiconductor sector.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"SMH","tags":["semiconductors","ai","data centers"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:AMD","confidence":0.72,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":2,"entryPx":448.645,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T21:10:18.105Z","headline":"Ives says AMD's estimates should not be cut over data-center worries","id":"sig_6ed40147b7d44c87a3a7a767","matched":["AMD","cut numbers","factually wrong"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"Ives says the view that data-center constraints will force cuts to AMD's numbers is wrong.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":true,"sym":"AMD","tags":["ai","data centers","semiconductors"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:NVDA","confidence":0.7,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":3,"entryPx":187.355,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T21:10:18.105Z","headline":"Ives says Nvidia's AI outlook is not derailed by data-center concerns","id":"sig_ae7a8cff7e214d1f9c7197c8","matched":["Nvidia","factually wrong"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"Ives expects Nvidia's outlook to hold up because he says fears of insufficient data-center capacity and resulting estimate cuts are wrong.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":true,"sym":"NVDA","tags":["ai","data centers","semiconductors"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"f9eb8794-c845-40d8-b72c-e589fa0f3d00","marks":[{"at":52,"t":0},{"at":1015,"t":61},{"at":1692,"t":112},{"at":2234,"t":148},{"at":2863,"t":192},{"at":3824,"t":254}],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T21:06:09.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://yt3.googleusercontent.com/4-w44catDebzaDSUWgereql0G5_z5o7VpJXuIYL_eZ3H1vXy0lTmrole9V500jTUXCnQPZ5CuKQ=s900-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj","handle":"@markets","id":"yt-UCIALMKvObZNtJ6AmdCLP7Lg","name":"Bloomberg Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"AI Party isn't Ending Over The Blue Wave Says Ives\n\nThere was no way to sugarcoat that. The blue tidal wave. It's it's a negative for the eye builder. And we talked about that is that the cap backs peak from a growth rate perspective. That probably was in the current going to come to 2020 2029. Now comes in 2027. And that starts to get priced in. And I think you've seen that, especially on the neo clouds and on some of the energy players given over and others, I think where the market is way over, sort of, you know, overhead these names and I think is sort of, you know, extrapolating that this blue wave in a sense, you're going to blockade. And then I read what was reflected yesterday with the sell off. That's just the wrong move, because the reality is demand is supply. Even if 20% of datacentres don't happen, it's 4 to 1 for the next two years. So then, well, first of all, I noticed that, uh, you're working from home. You're not in Seattle with your Penn State Nittany Lions. I make a note of that. Not okay. Um, so then, I mean, what does if, in fact, the data center build out is slower than maybe we initially thought. How does that ripple through kind of the AI ecosystem? Yeah, I think now in semis, which has gone to dramatically the view that you're not going to have the data center capacity that ultimately Nvidia, AMD and you saw in the stocks that you're going to have to see cut numbers that that is that's factually wrong. Because the reality is, is that when you this is just going along the cycle. So our view is like next year you have p cap ax peak spending, free cash flow, a rebound probably starting in the second half of next year and especially in 2028. But you have 800 to 1000 data centers that are going to get built where I think where I think the market's gotten wrong, especially like in Texas, the data centers that are already permanent and are already under construction, they're happening. And the governor talked about that last night, but 75% of data centers are basically what they're going to get built. So I just think what's happening here is with the political situation and all of the confusion, investors are, you know, extrapolating that the I revolution is going to be over. It's not it's actually just along gated. So your previous metaphor about it being 10 p.m. for a party that lasts until 4 a.m., what time is it now, given the change in political control here or with the tidal wave essentially at the party, the cops came to the party for a noise violation. Okay? And there were some issues in the beer, but the cops eventually will leave. And it's still, I'll say, about 1130 to midnight in the party. That's my like, this party's not ending because of the blue tidal wave. The cops are not shutting down the party. No, because the cops would give a warning for noise violation. They're leaving. And that's where we are. One more den. Uh, tough couple of days for Elon Musk. Um, how does this change, if at all. Kind of the outlook for Tesla Space X standalone. Maybe bringing them together looks like they're going to cease making their Cybertruck, at least for a while in Texas. What does this mean for Elon? We haven't heard from him yet. He's going to have to come to the table and meet with the governor, and they're going to have to figure out some compromise, because the reality is, is that Musk has doubled down, heavily invested in taxes when it comes to space, when it comes to Tesla. Then, even when you think about the view of SpaceX has some merger, the regulatory path there definitely increased. I still think that deal does get done, but no one is more impacted and more of a gut punch to this blue tidal wave than Musk because of SpaceX, because 30% of the data center capacity is going to happen in Texas. With that said, I think this is something where the market is way extrapolated that SpaceX can't build itself into a hyperscale. They can. They now just going to have to do it under, you know, under this blue wave. And Musk is going to have to come to the table.","textShort":"AI Party isn't Ending Over The Blue Wave Says Ives\n\nThere was no way to sugarcoat that. The blue tidal wave. It's it's a negative for the eye builder. And we talked about that is that the cap backs peak from a growth rate perspective. That probably was in the current going to…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjadIgZHXI4"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T20:56:54.926Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"53bc06cc-36c5-41f7-947c-217081fab9b0","observations":[],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"ZEN","confidence":0.6,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":5.219,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T20:56:52.358Z","headline":"Expects ZEN to move higher despite red candles","id":"sig_b0f8f040f7c4400f82212990","matched":["ZEN","Red candles could never break a plumbers mood","Higher"],"maxLeverage":5,"rationale":"The post expects ZEN to move higher, saying red candles cannot dampen the mood.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"ZEN","tags":["crypto","bullish"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"2d7d7611-251b-4841-9c86-1b14e6b2441f","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T20:55:56.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2087798043949027328/g9lLcIcr_normal.jpg","handle":"@Cyprenai","id":"x-2053014089434038274","name":"L♟️EGE 👑🐉","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Reposted @plumbers_wtf: Have a ZEN autumn morning Plumbers\nRed candles could never break a plumbers mood\nHigher 🪠 https://t.co/WOqFNjRs7l","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/Cyprenai/status/2118809630126346378"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T20:33:10.653Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"6cce56ce-43b6-4dce-9ac6-1315272a58da","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Stephen Miller has been appointed because it's Greater Israel o'clock"],"sentiment":"unclear","summary":"The post attributes Stephen Miller's appointment to what it calls “Greater Israel o'clock.”","topic":"stephen miller appointment"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:SPCX","confidence":0.9,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":134.145,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T20:33:07.077Z","headline":"Expects SpaceX to fall","id":"sig_af8f4a9ecb5e418d944a9d5b","matched":["SpaceX"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"The source is short SpaceX, so it expects SpaceX shares to decline.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"SPCX","tags":["spacex","equities"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:AAPL","confidence":0.9,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":343.95,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T20:33:07.077Z","headline":"Expects Apple to fall","id":"sig_c0c07ad9415344b7a25d8694","matched":["Apple"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"The source is short Apple, so it expects Apple shares to decline.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"AAPL","tags":["apple","equities"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:TSLA","confidence":0.9,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":360.58,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T20:33:07.077Z","headline":"Expects Tesla to fall","id":"sig_d9b2afcbcab84844b58c4fe7","matched":["short Tesla"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"The source is short Tesla, so it expects Tesla shares to decline.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"TSLA","tags":["tesla","equities"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:CL","confidence":0.9,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":90.323,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T20:33:07.077Z","headline":"Expects oil to rise","id":"sig_e6917db40b89431ca45e0c9d","matched":["long Oil"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"The source is long oil, which points to higher crude oil prices.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"CL","tags":["oil","crude"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"caef28ec-eb80-4da1-8055-b3de6d9d5696","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T20:31:59.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1725923340337004544/EHdUi9DY_normal.jpg","handle":"@goodalexander","id":"x-22110973","name":"goodalexander","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"long Oil short Tesla, SpaceX, Apple \n\nStephen Miller has been appointed because it's Greater Israel o'clock","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/goodalexander/status/2118803602911498503"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T20:32:44.343Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"c75fe1b3-9e2b-4ea9-8618-e455911e3364","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["what a stable thing the second half of 2026","Pure strength on this."],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source describes BlackBerry as stable and showing strength in the second half of 2026.","topic":"blackberry performance"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["Right back on the March 2025 ATH resistance.","any bullish news could push this 20-30% up.","only good for quick In/Out"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The quoted post says SIVE is back at prior resistance, sees possible sharp upside on bullish news, and treats it as a quick in-and-out trade.","topic":"sive price action"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:BB","confidence":0.6,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":8.86205,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T20:32:05.259Z","headline":"Expects BlackBerry could surge if the AI sector picks up again","id":"sig_7315eaf29bd345b89cfd2a01","matched":["$BB","If the AI sector pickup again his will be a monster."],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source expects BlackBerry could make a large move higher if the AI sector picks up again.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"BB","tags":["blackberry","ai sector","conditional upside"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"5c8fc46e-27ab-40e6-90dc-492ee72b7df3","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T20:30:55.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2001077543756034053/wIOsae_y_normal.jpg","handle":"@Brownmoose","id":"x-933330884626993152","name":"Moose","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"$BB Do you realize how easy it would have been to just hold BlackBerry instead of all those high beta AI Bottleneck ticker in 2026 \n\nYes it had a correction from the ATM but damn what a stable thing the second half of 2026.\n\nPure strength on this. If the AI sector pickup again his will be a monster.\n\nQuoting their own post: $SIVE Right back on the March 2025 ATH resistance.\n\nWe usually say a previous resistance flip as a support after a breakout.\n\nThis ticker is so beat up with tens of thousand investor stuck at a much higher price that any bullish news could push this 20-30% up.\n\nMake sure to monitor the Ema and Smma right above in case you take the swing trade , so far this ticker is only good for quick In/Out \n\nIl post the resistance and support in the subs discord if needed","textShort":"$BB Do you realize how easy it would have been to just hold BlackBerry instead of all those high beta AI Bottleneck ticker in 2026 \n\nYes it had a correction from the ATM but damn what a stable thing the second half of 2026.\n\nPure strength on this. If the AI sector pickup…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/Brownmoose/status/2118803335780114809"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T20:06:58.938Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"dc918b59-3d94-4dd9-81a7-938b97b95e64","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["50 weekly SMA as a strong level to buy good companies at","First time testing it since reclaiming it in Jun 2025"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source views the 50-week average as a buying level and notes this is Micron's first test of it since reclaiming it in June 2025.","topic":"micron at 50 week sma"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:MU","confidence":0.9,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":690.58,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T20:06:14.766Z","headline":"Expects Micron to hold the 50-week average as a buying level","id":"sig_c3187cac284e40fa8e30f543","matched":["$MU","strong level to buy good companies at","Stop loss would be a weekly close below 650"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source sees Micron at the 50-week average as a place to buy, with a weekly close below 650 as the stop.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"MU","tags":["micron","technical support","weekly sma"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"d6f22f6e-0fbe-4016-9790-56a4979c03c3","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T20:04:35.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1715373309297123328/R4_-JO-U_normal.jpg","handle":"@TheProfInvestor","id":"x-1547432399440695296","name":"Prof","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"$MU I always view 50 weekly SMA as a strong level to buy good companies at.\n\nThat is where Micron is at this week.\n\nFirst time testing it since reclaiming it in Jun 2025\n\nSimply put: Stop loss would be a weekly close below 650. https://t.co/Hv1Wp8zPSI","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/TheProfInvestor/status/2118796708494954865"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T20:05:07.181Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"d40e2f07-958d-4d34-872c-1d0a221c0022","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["I do own gold as a balance to my very strong growth tilted equity portfolio"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Kate Moore sees gold as a useful partial substitute for duration and holds it alongside growth-focused equities.","topic":"gold"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["our expectation is that yields are going to rise","a support at these levels"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Kate Moore expects yields to rise, supported by fiscal conditions and strong economic growth.","topic":"treasury yields"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["incredibly technical and not fundamentally driven"],"sentiment":"neutral","summary":"The speaker describes recent market moves as technical rather than driven by fundamentals.","topic":"market volatility"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["incredibly strong economic growth going into 2027"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Kate Moore sees strong economic growth continuing into 2027 as a favorable backdrop for higher real yields.","topic":"economic growth"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["deficits are going up under Republican or Democratic administration"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Kate Moore expects deficits to rise under either party's administration over the next several years.","topic":"federal deficits"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:TLT","confidence":0.76,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":82.0595,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T20:04:11.054Z","headline":"Kate Moore expects long-duration Treasury prices to weaken as yields rise","id":"sig_8ca5656a89fd4cd69271b7ef","matched":["we're shorter duration","our expectation is that yields are going to rise"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"Kate Moore says she is keeping portfolios shorter in duration and expects rising yields, which would weigh on long-duration Treasury prices.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"TLT","tags":["treasuries","duration","yields"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:GOLD","confidence":0.95,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":4063.75,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T20:04:11.054Z","headline":"Kate Moore and the host say they are long gold","id":"sig_68a9e58f27bd4f84a420adab","matched":["we stay long gold","I do own gold"],"maxLeverage":25,"rationale":"Kate Moore says she owns gold to balance her growth-heavy equity portfolio, and the host says he is long gold too.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":true,"sym":"GOLD","tags":["gold","portfolio allocation","diversification"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"f9a9b6fb-461a-4559-b5eb-66dc154a7222","marks":[{"at":53,"t":0},{"at":841,"t":44},{"at":1577,"t":80},{"at":2217,"t":110},{"at":2753,"t":142},{"at":3271,"t":173},{"at":3929,"t":208},{"at":4971,"t":258},{"at":5815,"t":303},{"at":6492,"t":337},{"at":7186,"t":372},{"at":7808,"t":405},{"at":8428,"t":437},{"at":9112,"t":473}],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T20:03:09.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://yt3.googleusercontent.com/4-w44catDebzaDSUWgereql0G5_z5o7VpJXuIYL_eZ3H1vXy0lTmrole9V500jTUXCnQPZ5CuKQ=s900-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj","handle":"@markets","id":"yt-UCIALMKvObZNtJ6AmdCLP7Lg","name":"Bloomberg Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Market Volatility Technical, Not Fundamental: Moore\n\nI want to talk to you about the short termism which you fight every day at Citigroup. You fight it every single day. And yet we're all caught up in the narrative. Bring up the chart, if you would. Louis, the control room is a little short staffed today, folks. They had a party last night, so we'll see if we can get the right chart up here. It's a chart of the week. And there it is. It's the Ibbotson from Yale except not SPX. It's the Dow with the depression. It's locked down and up. Up. Why do we care about politics when we look at a chart like that? I mean, I think we have to care about politics for a number of reasons. But, you know, one of the things that's been frustrating for me over the course of this week is how much people are trying to project future policy into 2027. First of all, we don't know. And by the way, I know you guys were just talking about politics and demographics and everything, but, you know, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are not monoliths. There are major factions within each. And everyone is gonna have to figure out how to work together. We honestly don't know what policy's going to look like over the next two years, and people are just projecting their biggest fears around change into the market. So what I saw over the last couple of days was incredibly technical and not fundamentally driven. So the conventional wisdom is political gridlock is good for markets, but I feel like we are more politically divisive than we've ever been, at least in modern times. So government shutdowns, uh, debt ceiling showdowns, they're kind of a normal thing now, and the markets tend to recover from that. Do we just assume that they'll continue to recover because over the last 5 to 10 years they have. Well, I think we're reaching some critical levels. I mean, this is one of the things we're really focused on, um, is what happens to deficits, you know, in not just the next two years, let's call it in the next 4 to 6 years. You know, it's my strongly held conviction that deficits are going up under Republican or Democratic administration because everyone's spending it spending or, you know, cutting taxes. There's very little stomach and desire, frankly, to do something to be kind of deficit positive, um, so that we have to break into the background. I think that's an assumption we can all have. But in terms of anything that changes in terms of, you know, technology or data center, um, development, uh, I think we're guessing at that point and a gridlocked Congress, um, and a gridlocked Congress that has to find some ways to agree in order to position itself. Each of these individuals for 2028, um, could actually be growth positive. Okay. I want to do this quickly here. This is a paragraph sentence from Kate Moore and all of Citigroup for this jumped right out of the screen, uh, before the election, during the election. And here it is right now. And it's just simply on gold. We remain underweight duration that's been talked for time. And we hold gold is a partial duration replacement. And then you bring up the chart of gold. This goes back before Nixon and $35 an ounce Kate Moore nailed this in her academics years ago. And it's just a gold. And other people saying gold doesn't matter. You know what? You've been wrong for 40 years. Again, you go long gold, I go long gold, we stay long gold. And frankly, we got a lot of pushback on it as yes, as gold was squishy at points of last year. Squishy? Excuse me, that's jargon. That's CFA level four squishy. That's Friday CFA level for jargon. You know, this is after a really long week. Um, and people said to us, you know, it's not a yielding asset, an environment of rising yields. Like, what are you going to do with that? And I say, look, I'm looking at the entire opportunity set, every asset we could potentially put in a multi-asset portfolio. And I can't get comfortable with adding duration to portfolios. We've been underweight for a long time and the duration of my time at Citi, and we really wanted to think about how do we balance out some of our equity risk, what might be a less correlated asset. And we found that gold was a you know, as we tested, it was performing a lot of those qualities. So does gold replace bonds completely or does it just replace some of your bonds? Some of it. Yeah, we have we of course we still own fixed income in multi-asset portfolios, but we're shorter duration and we're continuing to stick to that. And our expectation is that yields are going to rise like we saw a lot of that bond volatility in the last couple of days. But the fiscal side I was just mentioning, combined with what we think is going to be and of course, some of the data this morning on the labor market supported this incredibly strong economic growth going into 2027 should all be as good backdrop for higher real yields and at the very least, a support at these levels. Can you. Can I just do an audible guess? Watching. We're up to 42 viewers. It's really good. Drew. Thank you for watching. Drew sends in a blistering note that says they're going to UVA because they want to go to UVA. You went south for school, right? Went south for my undergrad, I did okay. Why is the South Tiffany now? Everybody wants to go. Um, uh, Phoebe is going to Wake Forest and on and on. On. Why is this? Hey, look, my niece and nephew, who are seniors in high school right now, are both, like, very, very, very focused. And a bunch of the southern schools, as are a lot of their peers. Um, I think the weather helps, to be honest with you, but I would also suggest some of these big universities are more appealing to a lot of students. Like you're getting lots of different schools, lots of different kind of academic challenges. And, you know, they want that breadth instead of sometimes the sort of more narrow certitude of the northern schools, all of them except Cornell. Does it change what we think the economies in the South are going to look like in 5 to 10, 15 years? Well, it's a question of whether or not people stay in, you know, after their undergrad or whether or not they go back to like major northern cities. I mean, that will be a it's more affordable in the South, certainly compared to the northeast. Yeah, it's a little bit different. I was like kind of forced to wear a dress to my first football game in Virginia, which was extremely unsettling for me. That's a first for Bloomberg. Money was all I can say. I'm fascinated. Then what Citigroup sees about population change within our personal finance, the rebuilding of the New South. I mean, we're going in a different direction here. Yeah, we're going in a different direction. But I'm going to step back to a bigger demographic thing that I'm very focused on, which is that, you know, with changes in immigration, which we don't expect to be reversed anytime soon with declining populations across a lot of the developing world. You know, governments and companies are going to need to think about how do we get the workers that we need in order to produce or to serve, whether or not we're talking about goods or services? This is one of the reasons why, you know, in addition to the technology that's come out, we've been pounding the table on physical eye. To be fair, something I've been fixated on was this idea that, you know, at this time last year, we had just just over 400,000 unfilled manufacturing jobs, and it's 25% higher, uh, here in 2026. This is without a massive expansion in manufacturing capacity, um, in the U.S., but something that people expect to be larger going forward. People don't want to do these manufacturing jobs. The younger generations want to be, you know, influencers or be outside or whatever the heck it is. And so demographics and worker preference are going to drive a different layer of investment. Kate, you were just telling us how you would recommend gold and not in place of bonds, but in addition to bonds, maybe replacing some of the bonds, subbing some of the duration, subbing. Okay. Yeah. So is that what you do for your personal portfolio? So I would be honest with you. I don't own any bonds in my personal portfolio. Yeah. Um, but I do own gold as a balance to my very strong growth tilted equity portfolio. Um, look, I'm in a place at this point in my life where I'm continuing to look for capital appreciation. And I'm also a professional investor. I'm comfortable with volatility. If we have drawdowns, it doesn't keep me up at night, because I really believe in the compounding possibilities and the kind of the future for growth and the growth equities I own okay. Growth stocks and some gold. How is the gold. How do you express that. Well gold I own in an ETF form okay. So no physical gold for you. Well except for jewelry. No. Um but I own the ETF form. And then across the growth stocks, you know, I own a global diversified set of stocks and a couple of very specific strategies. As you can imagine, in my job and in my previous job, I was quite restricted on trading and stuff myself. So in some cases, I have to use someone else's strategy in order to express my view. But fortunately enough, these are people I've known in the business for a long time and I haven't even.","textShort":"Market Volatility Technical, Not Fundamental: Moore\n\nI want to talk to you about the short termism which you fight every day at Citigroup. You fight it every single day. And yet we're all caught up in the narrative. Bring up the chart, if you would. Louis, the control room is…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nW0qgu-OD4"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T20:45:39.519Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"ae638422-93e4-44ef-8e5a-908369df9d44","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["the equities markets are kind of wobbling","I don't think they tumble necessarily","I don't think they really rip that hard"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The speakers see equities as wobbling or possibly stalling, but do not expect a major tumble.","topic":"equities"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["the bottom's in","I think the next leg's on","bull market's on"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The speakers describe crypto as having bottomed and expect the next leg of the bull market to begin.","topic":"crypto market"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["an incredible amount of tokenized assets coming on chain","They're going to end up flowing into the DeFi protocols"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The speakers expect tokenized assets to expand and bring more activity and value to onchain finance.","topic":"tokenized assets"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["a major detriment to the AI buildout","I think AI has some headwinds to deal with"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The speakers expect political headwinds for AI investment, while also suggesting a pullback could redirect investors toward digital assets.","topic":"ai buildout"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["stable coins being absolutely exploding","trillions of dollars of stable coins in the total supply"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The speaker expects stablecoin supply to grow substantially as large banks issue more onchain dollars.","topic":"stablecoins"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"BTC","confidence":0.9,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":75882.5,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T20:45:30.700Z","headline":"Expects Bitcoin to make new all-time highs in Q1 or Q2 next year","id":"sig_572965a9938b496e89588a54","matched":["Bitcoin bottomed here at 60K, 58K. It bottomed.","new all-time highs are very likely in Q1 or Q2 next year"],"maxLeverage":40,"rationale":"The speaker says Bitcoin has bottomed and expects it to reach new all-time highs next year.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"BTC","tags":["bitcoin","bull market","price outlook"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"ZEC","confidence":0.85,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":1336.25,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T20:45:30.700Z","headline":"Expects Zcash to rally strongly as negative rhetoric draws attention to privacy","id":"sig_f313a6a1b6fb485eaf82229c","matched":["Zcash, I think, is going to have an even bigger hate rally.","focusing on some of the privacy and the store value assets are going to do well"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The speaker expects Zcash to rise as people seek privacy and buy despite negative headlines.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"ZEC","tags":["zcash","privacy","store of 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Dad","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Could A \"Hated Rally\" Fuel Crypto’s Next Leg? What The Midterms and The Binance Hack Mean for Crypto\n\nThe whole time I've been in crypto, like people have said, \"Oh man, if Binance ever gets hacked, it's game over. Like, we're screwed. Like, pack it up. Go home. Absolutely screwed. We get we get the biggest heist in financial history.\" It was the absolute opposite result of what I thought would happen when Binance got hacked. I think the bottom's in. I think the next leg's on. I think this I think we're ending the disbelief rally right now. And I think stocks will stay relevant to answer your question, but I think we just shook off a $6 billion hack. I mean, that's insane. So, I Yeah, I mean, that's just kind of high level bull propaganda, but that's how I'm thinking about it. Nothing said on the Edge podcast is a recommendation to buy or sell tokens or securities. This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared here is financial advice. Welcome to the Edge podcast. I'm DeFi Dad here with Nomadic. Today's show features the co-founders and co-hosts of The Rollup, Andy and Robbie. Guys, thank you for joining us. How are you doing? >> Let's go, man. Good. It's exciting times. Thanks for having us. It's been It feels like it's been a long time coming. >> Yeah, dudes. Love the energy. I feel like we get we don't get enough time to just hang. Uh we we don't go to as many conferences as you guys, so we don't bump into each other as much and and get a beer, but uh today this will be great. This will be like getting our beer and just, you know, shooting the having a little investor chat, key in on some of these crazy moments that have been occurring over the last, I don't know, 72 hours. But why don't we just get right into it? I want to start literally like last night. So, we're the day after the midterm blue tsunami uh sweep. I want to just get your guys' opinions on what you think this means for crypto. Um, we've seen like the 12-hour reaction is nuts. prices are up incredibly. But yeah, maybe more specifically kind of like the short, medium, long term. Either one of you, whoever's the most fired up, go. I I mean I I'm excited because I think each of these are negative catalysts that were just climbing. And this is really really similar to what we saw in Q2 over the summer where Sailor was selling Bitcoin. People thought it would never happen. stretches at.7 cents on the dollar and it's just like pure like we're going to zero vibes and then we just kind of just held the line. We didn't go up in the face of that but we held the line and we did that for long enough to kind of absorb that into the market and then lo and behold you get this bessant buyback bullish catalyst and we rerate so much higher. I think that is very very similar to what's happening right now. I think it's happening in both the traditional markets and it's happening in the crypto markets. And so you had Apple earnings, the most valuable company. We climbed that. We absorbed that. Apple dropped a little bit on the news, but not a huge deal. You had the midterms. We got over that. Next things I'm watching, anthropic IPO, uh, is going to come out sometime in the next two weeks. People are saying that's going to steal a ton of liquidity from the market. I kind of think it's going to be very similar to Q2. We're going to hold the line. We're going to get Nvidia earnings the day after. Now that we've got over Apple, we've got over midterms. We're going to get over anthropic. We're get going to get over Nvidia earnings. And I think as long as we hold the line, we're going to do just fine. And I actually think crypto is going to react before the equities markets. So I think the equities markets are kind of wobbling. And that is sort of creating this conversation that we're going to rotate out of equities into crypto. And I'm watching exactly that. And I think crypto is going to tell us first whether or not that's going to happen. But you see some signs that returns aren't as easy or as concentrated in the equities market. And so I'm very very excited about investors starting to look for alternatives on the periphery of the equities market and going into alternative asset classes like digital assets. And I think you know if you look at the onchain businesses, the revenue businesses in crypto versus the store value assets. I think the store value assets are going to outperform. You're gonna have a couple like that are really money printers, hyperlid, lighter, pub fund that are going to do well near in that boat as well. But I tend to think that the store value assets, Zcash, Bitcoin, and maybe even, you know, are going to do partic particularly well. I like it. Um I Yeah, I mean I echo that. I mean most of our our audience is from the States. I think yours too, guys. For Texas to flip blue is nuts. Like every office, right? Like, am I has that ever happened before, guys? Like, were were any of you guys expecting Texas to flip blue? I'm not sure when's the last time that's ever happened? I was actually trying to look it up on Claude as you said at the >> Yeah, because I mean, look, Elon obviously moved SpaceX there, right? And doing all this all this uh AI kind of uh you know, private sector build out there and then boom, it flips blue. I see, you know, some some analysts are kind of saying that maybe this is going to lead to maybe a 10 or 20% uh reduction in pace of buildout. But either way, I think one thing that Rob didn't mention, I think he mentioned kind of holistically that's um a weird kind of uh knock on effect is that AI stole the show from digital assets for the last 18 months. It stole the show big time. This blue wave is a major detriment to the AI buildout versus a detriment to the digital asset regulatory body. Uh the the digital asset regulatory body is moving in the right direction. I think this is going to put a bit of a pause or a bit of a kind of scare jolt into the AI market which I think is is going to lead some investors to come into digital assets. I think just broadly the year after I mean it's all just lining up like Rob gives so many great examples fouryear cycle we're there it's it's happening right uh the Q4 of a midterm year the S&P is always green after a midterm year so is Bitcoin it's just like all lining up the bottoms in I have no reason to be bearish fully allocated into the market um and honestly just the reaction from yesterday was it was like certainty is now being priced in I feel like and So, I think we're seeing the market kind of react positively to certainty. Um, but at the high level, guys, I kind of missed the era of like, who gives a damn about who won the midterms? Like, we're in crypto, you know what I mean? Like, we're supposed to be libertarian. Like, who cares? And so, yeah, that's kind of my high level is very bullish. I think AI has some headwinds to deal with. I think, you know, uh, crypto is going to have less headwinds. And, uh, I also don't really care. And I I think, you know, there's a couple of ways to look at this. Sailor actually put out something that said, look, you know, Florida elected a Republican governor uh who backs a US Bitcoin reserve, but at the same time, Texas elected a Democratic senator who voted to create a Bitcoin reserve in his state. And so crypto no longer is a partisan issue. At least Bitcoin is. And crypto has become like this catch-all term for Bitcoin and DeFi and stable coins and blockchain and all these things. So, at the same time, you've got like, you know, pretty bipartisan support for a Bitcoin reserve at the highest levels of government. You also have news hitting that says the Democrats plan to investigate crypto industries financial ties to President Trump and his family. Elizabeth Warren is still in office. She's going to be heading the banking, you know, committee for the Democrats. And you already know that she's going to put her namesake on going after Trump and, you know, his family. And so you could look at this and you could say, \"Oh, you know, Democrats are in power. They're going to go after Trump and his family and ethics and all that.\" Super bearish. No, I'm I think this is going to lead to a hate rally. A hate rally in which Trump goes on an absolute brigade of pumping the market for a variety of reasons. All of the financial deep state goes along with it. The regulatory agencies are in power for the next two years anyway. Doesn't even matter, you know, what happens in 2028. And I think there will be an rerating higher at the same time that the public sentiment is super against crypto. This I think is going to catch retail by surprise. They're going to see all of the mainstream media going super negative against crypto and attacking Trump and at the same time they're going to see prices going higher and it's going to be this weird psychological juxtaposition for them which ultimately once they see it's high enough right maybe it's once Bitcoin is above 100K or 125K that's when they buy back higher and that's what extends the gains once they realize that the mainstream media is just spinning the narrative their way because now they've got control of the Senate and the House. So, I I'm I'm predicting hate hate rally. >> Um, we we've been asking people this on the podcast like, \"Hey, what do you think uh a new administration would mean for crypto?\" And the answer that resonated most with me was like, \"Got to build something useful, got to make people want to use it.\" And we have this like 2-year gap, as you mentioned, uh, where I think, yeah, the CFTC is probably going to go into overdrive, the SEC is probably going to go into overdrive, and getting some of these regulations through so this stuff can happen uh, quickly. And I think everybody on this podcast knows that once this stuff is unleashed more broadly, especially things like per um and and you know, tokenization, I I I think we've seen enough product market fit internally um to know what's going to happen when that that you know, sort of escapes the lab more broadly into everybody's hands. So I'm pretty bullish as well. And but it just comes down to you have to make this stuff useful. One one other thing I want to ask you guys too is like okay we we sort of talked about that justosition between equities and crypto and do you do you see a world where uh equities could be completely in the dumps and crypto could be like it it sounds like you do like where crypto could flourish essentially when everything else is very pessimistic in in regular sort of blue chick blue chip equity names. >> No, I don't think that's going to happen though and I don't think it's possible unfortunately. I mean, I think I think Bitcoin is still going to trade as a risk asset. Um, but I but I think that's fine. I think, you know, zooming out, Bitcoin bottomed here at 60K, 58K. It bottomed. We had that big rally off the lows. Uh, we just had the biggest hack in history of the entire world, the whole financial world, right? And that brought us down 3 to 4%. Uh, the whole timeline's been bearish here at 76 77K. I think the bottom's in now for sure. We're trading 80K at this at the time of this recording. I think new all-time highs are very likely in Q1 or Q2 next year. I think we're in a very very bullish market. I think equities could just kind of stall out a little bit. I I don't think they tumble necessarily. I don't think they really rip that hard. They might. Uh but I don't think there's this big tumble. Here's why. Um because I do think that if if equities tumble hard, what we're going to get is the activist Fed is going to step in and do some sort of AI back stop. We've seen this happen before uh during COVID. We've seen this during kind of stock market dumps uh in you know in the good old days they had bare markets in the stock market. Seems like right now we are just not allowing dumps to happen of any sort of size. I think it's going to end poorly but I don't think you know I think that can's getting kicked down the road. Look, I think the like the core message here is and I I'm curious if you guys agree like bull market's on. We just went through the first multi-week complex sort of bull market exuberance wash out. So the early stage exuberance. I mean you saw uh wormhole ripface and starknet and celestia and people were levered up on all sorts of tokens and you know pumping memes and uh you know people were using leverage that shouldn't have been wash out four weeks 87 to 75 on Bitcoin. People are a bit worried. I think the bottom's in. I think the next leg's on. I think this I think we're ending the disbelief rally right now and I think stocks will stay relevant to answer your question, but I think we just shook off a $6 billion hack. I mean, that's insane. So, I Yeah, I mean, that's just kind of high level bull propaganda, but that's how I'm thinking about it. Yeah. So, the Binance exploit uh as it was happening, Nomadic and I were just having like a catchup and we're looking at the at some notification and we're going is Binance really hacked or is this, you know, just one of those uh onchain uh analysts that's, you know, misinterpreting what's going on? You know, it's just money being moved from one hot wallet to another. I think what was most shocking to us is just how the market shook it off pretty quickly. I I think you know Bitcoin dropped to your point like I want to say the the drop below 80,000 at least it was like confirmed now. Okay. Now, we're we're definitely below 80,000, but we're still well above that 50week moving average, which seems to be um uh it's it seems to be viewed now as the bull market support ban something, credit to Ben Powen, sort of like pushing that idea and it seems everyone's adopted it, but this always happens at the bottom of bare markets or right after we've bottomed. >> There are folks who are calling for much lower, you know, price levels. And what happens is we we eventually get some sort of major news event and then, you know, everyone's trying to connect the two of them. You know, in truth, it looks like folks sold off into the midterms and it looks like, you know, that was the end of the sell the news type event and folks then started to buy back in. This is why I'm wearing a Hawaiian shirt today. So, crypto winter's over. So, I've put my Hawaiian shirt back on. So anyways, I think that uh you know there was some incredible uh uh riskreward setup to selling last October when the when the Binance 1010 event happened. Um I I'm not going to pretend like I sold and you know was able to short the market until uh it bottomed there. But now to me it's it's like the polar opposite. We're uh a year into what was a a pretty sustained downtrend. It looks like we've bottomed. And I mean, at this point, you just got to start to pay attention to which of these tokens that have a monetary premium um are mispriced and can, you know, hopefully go up a lot in the next 12 to 24 months. And then beyond the store of value type tokens like you know like a Bitcoin ETH and Zcash maybe after that I'm looking at the onchain businesses and and the difference between now and what we've all lived through over the last few years is the market seems to have finally come around to valuing uh good teams building valuable products that genals generate revenues and fees. Yeah. Fundamentals >> return fundamentals. All right. >> Yeah. real real quick. I don't I don't want to take us off this track because I want to go there, but I I just got to say too, the whole time I've been in crypto, like people have said, \"Oh man, if Binance ever gets hacked, it's game over.\" Like, we're screwed. Like, pack it up, go home. Absolutely screwed. We get we get the biggest heist in financial history and it's Binance. And I got to say, you know, to DeFi Dad's story, while we were talking through it, I actually felt oddly calm through the Binance hack, through the whole thing from start to finish. And I don't know why exactly. I can't pinpoint it, but it I don't want to I don't want to say it's a nothing burger because like that's being you know, you know, I'm sure some people Well, maybe nobody did lose money other than Binance, but I got to say that was the commonest hack. And then it was the absolute opposite result of what I thought would happen when Binance got hacked. And isn't that just so crypto? It's like we we we think something's going to happen one way for sure and it just does the exact opposite. Like this is like me trading the market, too. It's like, you know, uh, but yeah, just just wild. >> Andy, you interviewed CZ like on Monday, >> 48 hours before the New York. He rang the NASDAQ bell. It's just such a weird coincidence. >> What did you plant? Did you plant a little tracker or did Were you at the center of that? >> I think I think I cursed him a little bit huh? >> Did he though? Did he give Did he give you that same calming like everything's going to be okay feeling? >> Dude, you talk to the guy, your heart's like beating out of your chest. You just get out of the the train on a overnight flight. You're literally like sweating bullets in a suit running into this brunch. Like I mean I wasn't a whole lot going on in my mind other than like I got to get this done, man. So um DeFi to your point on the fundamentals and the and the businesses and to your point nomadic about this broad like kind of market shaking it off. I feel like I feel like we believe like I believe in the market's bullishness and I believe in my in my holdings but I think nomadic there's still a belief issue. Like I think there's too many per traders, there's too many meme traders, there's there's just a collective lack of of belief into like what we're doing here. You know, I'm well aware you've uh uh invested in lots of teams over the years. I also recognize uh you you're betting on, you know, liquid tokens as well, not just like venture bets. So, what are your updated thoughts there? like uh what what do you think of the state of um uh venture markets in in our space and and what do you think of the opportunity now to bet on liquid tokens in DeFi? Yield shouldn't come from chasing dashboards or timing markets. 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Stay tuned for the next phase and learn more at access.to. to Apex is the first dividend backed stable coin protocol bringing enhanced public market yield onchain backed by strategy's perpetual preferred stock stretch with APYUSD anyone can earn dividend driven real yield live on Ethereum to learn more go to apyxfi well I think building on you know that and and also what you were kind of explaining around these contradictory forces where there is a return to fundamentals at the same time there is this collective disbelief in the system I tend to think that there's a counterweight to to these forces and the the simplistic way that I think there is to explain this is basically like the tech is starting to matter again and you mentioned you know prediction markets and how they have an uh a real product market fit in elections and and also wars and some of these other you know uh sociological dynamics that you know exist in the world we can take positions on that we can use that to hedge our portfolios or we can take that to gamble and you know bet on these things. I'm really excited just to say on the predictions market element. Uh we had uh the senior vice president of the CBOE uh on the show on the rollup last week who is you know CBOE is this Chicago board options exchange and does a lot of derivatives uh like trillions of dollars of volume in the derivatives markets. He's explaining prediction markets as a fundamental new primitive to financial markets. How you can take uh very narrow positions on uh within a company. So Amazon is a great example of this. You can bet particular you don't have to just buy Amazon stock. You can bet on AWS and what are the numbers going to be? How much revenue are they going to generate? And the oracle comes from the earnings statement of Amazon. And then you can unbundle these companies, right? Google's another great example. Their search revenue is abysmal. They shattered their business model that was working for the last 10 years. And their ad strategy is totally out of whack. And this is bolstering up their earnings, but is very shortsighted. And so Google stock crashed 20% after their earnings call. And so their AI business, it's thriving. It's just now getting off the ground. very early, but their search revenue business is it's bringing the entire company down. You can take very narrow predictions, betting against Google's search and betting for Google's AI. So, I'm very very excited about the technology as it is implemented and injected into traditional financial markets. That's maybe on the Chicago board. Options exchange is a great example. This is bidirectional. We're also getting equities tokenized and injected into our DeFi primitives that we know and love. So this is birectional and and this direction we call the tokenization super cycle. Something that Andy and I talk about on the show very often which is that there's a duge of tokenized assets. Literally, we had someone again last week come on. He was like, I saw the hockey stick growth in tokenized assets. And then I looked closer and it was in a log scale graph. So you guys know like hockey stick growth is one thing, but hockey stick growth in a log graph is like exponential on exponential. So there is an incredible amount of tokenized assets coming on chain and we're not on a tokenization path to nowhere. These tokenized assets, people want to do something with them. They want to make them productive. They want to unlock idle capital. They want greater utility from these tokenized assets. How do you get greater utility on assets? You guys know this. You put them into TFI. You put them to work. You make them programmable, right? You load them out. You collateralize them. You exchange them. You put them up, stake them, do all these crazy, you know, vault them, do all these fun things with them. Those tokenized assets, the trillions of dollars of tokenized assets are high quality assets, right? There's equities, there's commodities, there's fixed income, there's all these income products. They're coming on chain. They're going to end up flowing into the DeFi protocols that we know and love. That's going to unlock greater utility and ultimately unlock tons more value. How how are we investing? This was your your question. I'm investing in the protocols that have proven product market fit, proven utility and activity that are going to benefit from this deluge of tokenized assets. If RWAS, tokenized equities, all these things are going to flow into you, I want to invest in you. Especially if you have a value acrruel mechanism that is going to flow that value that you're going to get from tokenized assets into a token and not an equity holder that's going to benefit, you know, some other VC that got in four or five years ago. So, if they can check all those boxes, right, they're going to benefit from this deluge. They're going to they're going to acrue that value. They're going to pass that value to to my to me as a token holder. I want to own those assets. Yeah, I think uh predation market is one par tokenized or tok to tokenization, stable coins, per big three. Uh thinking about those as as as the big three on the onchain business side. Then you got the store value side. Bitcoin, Zcash doing very well. Bought those at the lows. Bitcoin uh got my freaking parents in at like 65. Uh I I've been holding for a long long time. Zcash anywhere between 300 400 up to five. uh spot positions in a a s significant amount of the portfolio as well as pers in low leverage holding that for $10,000 or higher. I think it's going to do a 2015esque run similar to Bitcoin. Uh kind of it's in its earliest kind of adoption era. I'm looking for a 20 to 40x on size. That's the make it play. That's the that's the you know uh we're doing all right to the you know we're doing really well play onchain businesses side hyperlid lighter uh going to dominate per CFTC is bringing equity per as of yesterday in into the US hyperl's deal with the ice perfect uh expression of uh per tokenization in one both of those plays HRP3 volumes flying lighter volumes are flying on RWAS preo for anthropist is doing well uh openai is going to do well. Uh that's just a that's like the best bet in my opinion on tokenization and per those two names. Uh variation also interested in and want to be a part of that. Uh been trading on there have have points and then you just look at this broad swath and I can just name names that is going to be kind of like in in the way of this train or I guess on the train you know Athena, Aerodrome, Uniswap, a morpho. It's so funny to think all the original DeFi names that DJ and Spartan put us through a uh you know, however long, you know, what was it like a three-year bare market? Well, that bare market is coming to an end. Uh and it's going to be the biggest kind of TAM increase. And just to put Robbie's like succinct kind of phrasing of what's happening, the TAM of A and Aerodrome and Uniswap was $160 billion of DeFi TVL. The TAM that's going to be is going to be the entirety of onchain finance that is swallowing global capital markets and all the assets offchain. 200 300 400 trillion dollars of assets in in financial markets that I think are tradable and like investable that's a rough number. If we just get 1% half a percent over the next couple years we're talking about an exponential step function increase in volumes TVLs and revenues that at the end of the day as Rob says come back to token holders. Well, to me, it's that simple. I think that the world of investable assets has shrunken dramatically, which actually makes our jobs a lot easier. Uh, it makes our jobs easier to pick and hold assets. And so, um, not as interested in the L1's or the L2s or the infra stuff. Uh, interested in ETH, Bitcoin, and Salana. Um, a little bit on Salana, pretty much no other, uh, new, uh, tokens or L1's or L2s or Infra. Um, and looking at this thing called Pearl, uh, AI token. Um, kind of interesting. So anyway, I just wanted to kind of give you guys a bit more tangible there. Um, you've got kind of these revenue generating companies, you got the uh uh store value companies. That's how we're thinking about it. Um, and yeah, I mean, we're just broadly bullish. I also just think like and I'm curious how you guys are managing your portfolio. Like I have far less assets than I ever have and far more concentration and um I think that this is kind of like how I'm trying to approach it going forward. Andy, hard hard like not to have a lot of overlap with tokens these days. Just, you know, a lot of a lot has turned out to be garbage and uh crypto has concentrated on winners. It it's pretty obvious. But before like maybe even before we get into like our our what we're doing, I I want to throw one more thing back at you guys cuz this is something I've been thinking through as an investor and and the question is like say I didn't have a really good entry on something today. What are the tokens I'd be most into buying today? So, like a lot of this stuff I'm sure we've all been holding from good entries like hype. I I know a bit of your hype story. I know your Zcash story, but clean slate. Say everything got wiped off the map and you had to build back your portfolio. What are the first like let's say two to three tokens you'd be eyeing up? >> That's such a good question, man. Because you want to on the one hand, you want to say as you were saying, these these good tokens are overly consensus, right? They've got a lot of people that are in them. It seems overly consensus, but at the same time, it's kind of just the survivors left and the smart people who have money left that are left in this market. So, is it really consensus or are we early? I don't know. And then you also have the whole, well, if they're outperforming, are they just going to continue to outperform? And like, do you want to bet on a lagard versus do you want to bet on something that's outperformed already? And so, these are the questions that I would kind of like run through my mind. And I would probably allocate to both. So, I would probably look at the winners so far. Uh, I would go, you know, on the year to date and look at what's performed the best. What you're going to find is Zack, Pipe, Lighter, um, Pump. Um, what other names are going to be on there? I mean, there's be a couple others, right? And I would probably get a good amount into those just under the thesis that the trend is your friend until the end. I, you know, I'm saying that that that the bull market is just starting. These names have a lot of upside left. Then with the rest of my capital, call that. I mean, if you want to be very, you know, split half. So, half there. Then I would go to the pers, tokenization, stable coin and and AI and potential like privacy kind of thesises and I would look at the kind of things that I think are going to do well but haven't quite done well. You could put Near and Venice into that other category as well. They've outperformed a ton. Um, and so, you know, you start looking at names like Athena that got beat up hard and is, you know, just kind of making it first its first move off the lows. You look at names like Ether on the kind of uh stable coin and tokenization side. I mean, you look at names like Zamo or even like a chain link um or or you know, even a a Pearl's tough, but that's kind of how I how I would think about it is I would go into the winners with some of the portfolio. Then I would address my big my big three categories, stable coins, tokenization, perun on the per side, they're mostly kind of winners. So I would look at stable coins and tokenization. And I would look at the winning kind of basket there. Who I think is going to make a roaring comeback, who's been beaten up, who's got a chance to be a a gentic tokenized Binance player who has that kind of narrative. And I would allocate there that it is such a good question, right? because we tend to get, you know, somewhat absorbed in like the things that, you know, we're already in, but every day that we're in them, we should, you know, make the case that they're the best things to own. Um, and it's tough cuz I think all of us here, we got good entries on these things, so we just want to continue holding them. You know, the question cuz broadly we put these things into two categories. We have the store value category, we have the onchain business category. And I do agree that the store value category I think especially in light of the election results last night is going to do particularly well and Zcash tells a fantastic story. >> What's your best idea right now? What's your best idea? Like what's your number one guaranteed best idea right now? >> Probably Zcash. I mean it's so much it has so much strength. >> But you could say it's up so much that like how much more return are you looking to get? So, like I feel very cozy in Zcash, but the tendency if you missed out on the early entry is to go down the risk curve. So, you know, I I want to have a thesis behind the things that I own. I don't want to just own them just for a short-term trade. So, if you're looking at the rest of that category, I think the Democrats are going to go after Trump and they're going to go after his, you know, broad business interests and that is going to take onch onchain businesses and potentially slow down the regulation, right? and slow down this tokenization super cycle. Although I still broadly expect it's going to do incredibly well. But in the short term, especially as this rhetoric is sort of front and center, I I'd expect the privacy category because we know the Democrats also are like very tax focused and you know like surveillance state even if that's not really the case. It's kind of the narrative. And so Zcash is an alternative to all of this, right? Protect your money, protect your assets, right? you know have privacy and I think broadly the privacy cate category is going to do well to and and so far the digital assets in digital assets the privacy story and the AI story has be very intertwined like near is a great example right high high high pri high high privacy high AI and I think near is going to continue to do well because it has privacy but if you look at like a Venice I'm a little bit more skeptical of a Venice and I tend to think like focusing on some of the privacy and the store value assets are going to do well. I mean, look, there's only like five or so, maybe 10, you know, but it's pretty much single digits if you're really looking at the revenue plays and you're looking at PTE that are justifiable. So, that's why I'm pretty bullish on store value assets, Zcash, Bitcoin. And I do think that the narrative is just going to be attacking these things might slow down the ones that are a little bit more like doing things, you know, the the quote unquote right way doing the regulated business front. That's why I I think, you know, Bitcoin is going to have a hate rally. Zcash, I think, is going to have an even bigger hate rally. People are going to see these things going up in light of the negative rhetoric they see coming from mainstream media, and they're just going to they're just going to like realize that they're caught off sides. these things go up even with all the bad news. Again, this is just going to be climbing the wall of worry that is, you know, front and center in their mind and and they end up buying that much higher. The only thing I'd add to this and and this guiding principle has served me well over the long term, but it it absolutely has, you know, um prevented me from getting into some great opportunities in the short term. I really love to bet on category winners. I like to bet on uh teams, protocols, uh tokens that are uh again like the clear winner takes all in in what they do. And so that's why I truthfully have almost never sold any Bitcoin. I I think I've you know just continued to DCA into it. This is another reason that I've continued to stay long ETH. Uh I just I feel like ETH has just absolutely dominated the stable coin RWA DeFi markets. Now that being said, uh the entry that I got in 2021 is still there for folks that want to get into ETH in 2026. So that that's been a little bit painful >> and that's why it's difficult to endorse going down the risk curve, right? Because the category leaders are the ones that tend to compound their success and own most of the market. I think that uh taking that risk and identifying those um you know going to identify uh opportunities that aren't consensus trades. I mean there there's huge edge in that and um you know this is so probably the the newest uh most popular sort of like trade that I got into uh was we did uh multiple interviews with derive and we had been paying attention to Lyra prior to this >> and uh I I I didn't get into derive until like this summer and if you look at why I ultimately decided to, you know, make a bet on derive. It's because I saw them as such a clear category winner in options and I'm looking at that onchain options total addressable market thinking how much bigger it can get. There's also a little bit of overlap with um uh I think that they can eat into some market share with height and lighter but not even have to compete ultimately. I I think you know what they do with with options is very unique and and um the um the binary options that are going to be offered through a hyperlquid and lighter are very different. So anyways, all I mean to call out here is uh over the long term, I think that part of the reason I've survived so many years in the space and maybe haven't been burned as epically on certain trades is because I've probably played it safe from that standpoint. But I have I have watched now multiple cycles where I've said, \"Man, I missed the fastest horse in this race.\" And uh a good example of this was last cycle I I bought some soul because I I realized I was spending so much time trying to come up with reasons why I shouldn't and I was literally using different DeFi apps. That was one of the best things I could have done. The mistake this cycle was um I had enough information to get long Zcash, but to your point, by the time it had reached around $600, I was like, \"Wow, there's been an incredible return there already.\" I just I've been burned in in prior cycles, you know, buying these local tops. Funny enough, around the time I almost bought into Zcash, there was the uh there was the the bug, you know, in the orchard pool. and um and you know I felt smart for you know a few days there and uh anyways that was that would have been a great entry. So yeah, completely missed arrive on our side. Saw it at 12 cents. Was talking about on the stream, showing the chart, being like, \"This is so obvious. Boom, four to 5x in a matter of days.\" It felt like, and if I may just offer one thing on the category leader thing, there is immense alpha in getting the being right on on betting on the company that's going to usurp the category leader, but categorically, probabilistically, very difficult to do. What I may offer though for Zcash and why I kind of didn't have a problem buying more here at uh about 1100, 1200 or less two weeks after buying, you know, good bit into at in the $400 to $500 range is my view on the store value market is that Bitcoin is going to be number one. Right now, Zcash has 1.5% of Bitcoin's market cap. uh like the precious metal market, you've got uh gold, silver, palladium, and then maybe into copper a little bit. And I believe that the digital store value market will play out quite similarly. And so I don't think that Zcash will ever flip Bitcoin. But I think that the bet is not necessarily on eclipsing, but all on their on the market going from a monopoly to eventually like a duopoly and then eventually potentially uh a couple of these assets. And so the reason why Zcash wasn't that interesting to us over the last 10 years is that Bitcoin's market cap oscillated anywhere between a couple hundred billion to, you know, two trillion or so. But if we think that Bitcoin is going to go to a $10 trillion market cap itself, right, just Bitcoin, then what is 5 or 10% of that worth? Then you're looking at, you know, a 500 billion to a trillion dollar market cap for the second leader, right? And so then you start to run those numbers and you're like, well, maybe we are still early. And so that would be my only take on the store value market. But I think on everything else, you're right. On every sort of market that there's like a business and revenue and kind of like a business market involved, number one is going to take the cake nine times out like nine and a half times out of 10. Right. So right now, Bitcoin relative to Zcash is almost exactly the same ratio as gold to silver. And so I I think >> interesting. This is pretty much at equilibrium right now if we expect the power law to play out pretty similarly. But I do think with the momentum that Zcash has, it can go and have a higher relative market share in the store store value. >> The Bitcoin run though, right? Bitcoin's going to go to but then it's like just buy Bitcoin, right? But if you think it's going to outperform, then you know there's certainly an argument there and I think it could uh to a certain extent with the momentum that it has. I wanted to ask you guys, Jeremy is on CNBC right now. They've got earnings coming out today. Are you guys paying attention to like crypto equities? And what, you know, we're talking about onchain businesses. Circle is a business that, you know, their entire business is pretty much onchain dollars, right? But they have a traditional, they don't have a token. They have a, you know, a public equity. Circle, Coinbase, you know, Galaxy Digital, Bullish, right? Are on public markets. can get them on, you know, your brokerage account. Equities are moving like crypto tokens. I mean, how are you thinking about exposure to digital assets, but through crypto equities? Want a better way to earn yield from your unis swap LP? With Saffron, you get your yield on your terms. Deposit your LP into Saffron and get paid an upfront premium. That's fixed yield paid in full now. Then put that premium to work. Hedge with it on lighter or go long with leverage before the price moves. Whether it's memes or tokenized stocks, if it's available on unis swap v3, you can now earn yield on it. Want to earn higher yield from unis swap without lpeen? Buy someone else's future yield on saffron. Learn more at saffron.inance. Fixed yield paid upfront. Puffer is building the ultimate vertical in crypto. Your crypto deserves better yields. Better yields require better infrastructure. And Puffer is building it. Puffer liquid staking delivers above market ETH yields secured with up to $5 billion in slashing penalty protection and buffer. Puffer institutional offers compliant secure above market ETH yields for DATs institutions and large players. Puffer Unifi is the first synchronously composable rollup enabling the next generation of app chains on Ethereum with sub 10 millisecond transactions. UniFi AVS enables preconfirmations, making Ethereum validators more profitable and roll-ups more scalable. Puffer is premier infrastructure and yield for digital assets. Stake your ETH at app.puffer.fi. Yeah, I'll take that one. It's it's a good question. Um and and I'll kind of weave in some of my like managing my port uh stuff, too, because I think that flows into this as well. But um just real quick, I want to go back to I I do think it's funny or not funny but interesting that you guys both the names we've drilled down to for both of you is is Zcash. I think fair to say and it is like one of the few tokens where you can't apply fundamental analysis to which is also like you know you know and like I I find this stuff a bug. >> Yeah, I know. But I find this stuff so hard to like quantify upside but I I I like the way you guys walk through it with like relating it to Bitcoin. That's one thing that we can grab on to um and and sort of and sort of point to and I think it's built such a strong narrative with like, oh, this is private Bitcoin, dude. Come on. It's like the next iteration of Bitcoin. It's Bitcoin 2.0. How are how do you not own this? But a couple more things I just want to walk through like how how I invest and how I manage my port that I think I've come back to are quite important to me. And I'm always betting on people now. Uh, and that's like that's like almost first and foremost like anything like with ethics that is ary or you know I I'm out like if if I don't and there's there's some tokens where I think that matters less like fully decentralized stuff and you know what I mean but uh with with businesses like yeah how do they do business? Are they good people? Like this stuff really matters to me after you know investing at our fund and then investing as an angel. I've probably done sat through six 60 investments and from like start to finish and dude it always comes back to uh did I bet on the right person rather than idea because they're going to pivot six to 10 times throughout and it's like ultimately that just matters so much and then if anybody out there can talk to a founder first before they buy even a liquid token or listen to a few podcasts I think that's so important. I personally I would never buy a token again that I haven't spoken to the founder or like even try to talk to more of the team and I I get that that's maybe some special access that we may have that we we have these opportunities but if you're going to conferences and you can get some access or listen to podcasts I think personally that's huge. Um, and then the last thing is just the the sector that I think I've become really bullish on is just the sector that I think has a ton of growth and upside, which is these NEO banks and like ETHFI and and Athena, which you guys you guys mentioned both of these. Um, I think the upside is hard to quantify. So, that's why I'm actually pretty bullish because I think there's asymmetric upside there. And I think to your to your other points, like yeah, regulations could hinder that upside, but I think their business models are so smart and the way they're using yield uh for cash back and things like that, the amount of incentives you can glob on to these things is is really impressive and I think they're actually delivering a product that's like a 10x improvement over like your standard Visa or Mastercard. So, super bullish there. Um, but getting back to Robbie's question just about equities, I own some crypto equities. Uh, like I have Galaxy, not a huge position. Um, I got really into the DAT wave and I dude, I can't quit DATs. I still I still love DATs. Like, yeah, I I I do good DATs. Like, I shouldn't even maybe pluralize it. There's the the list is like maybe three that I think are interesting. It's it's BMR, it's um uh what's perr, and then honestly, it's uh Cipher. What was it? Cipher or Yeah. So I that I was like I need an entry into Zcash and my mind went to that and I'm like no don't do that just buy Zcash. But but I that business is really I like it a lot. >> Yeah it's interesting cuz they're like I think the biggest mining fleet. They've actually got some really interesting revenue lines like outside of just having Zcash on their balance sheet. But >> Nomatic you had a really good win with USDE as well. The Athena DAT >> there there is another example. Yeah. So, I'm I'm actually continuing uh continuing to buy that because like that is still sitting well below NAV and I do think that's going to correct and that's that's another dad that I called out at the time too. Like it it it you know it it it was pretty crappy for a long period of time there. But um still very interested in that dad as well. And then that's another you know sort of extension of a bet on Guy and going back to betting on people like how how can you not want to bet on like Guy Young, right? So >> Yep. And I think they did a great example of like where we're at in the industry, which was they just let their their unlocks hit. They were like all at once, get out. We'll buy you out. Get out of here. Um that's done. Here's our revenue line. Here's how we're getting value back to tokens. Like let let's play ball. You know what I mean? Like like they took the reality check a lot better than a lot of these other teams have. If you would have told me in 2025 that there would be DATs doing well in 2026, I would have never believed you. I am a master at buying uh local tops on DATs. I I won't even tell you what I've what I had bought into, but I I bought into like very obvious names and uh uh I have been very good at losing money on them. Uh whereas Nomadic has bought them at the local bottoms and then I've waited months or weeks, you know, before I bought into it. You know, people ask us the same questions, right? Like what what should I buy, right? No financial advice. Have you guys considered like your own index like you know is buying local bottoms on dads like I want to buy local bottoms on dads too you know like have you guys thought about whether it's a FOMO or like a >> you know some some way to like copy trade inverse Stefi dad would be mine that's what I would humble man you're too humble >> you're too hard on yourself too way way too trust me guys he's he's doing okay he's doing all right >> I I Okay so I saw you guys do that a while back What was like an N7 or what you call it? >> We just did like a Dune dashboard. >> Yeah, >> it was I love that idea. >> It was reading like Yeah, we kind of put it together, >> you know. >> People still would have had to go and buy it themselves on their own. >> Yeah, it wasn't tokenized bare market, >> right? I haven't I haven't thought of like tokenizing it or anything or like Yeah, doing it in that regard. But I I think um I think be just being more public about like what I'm bullish on and what I hold is is is wise. Like, but again, that that's why I asked you guys the entry question because I'm always cognizant of like, okay, was this something I invested in and I got special access to and now I'm like parading around and being bullish about it and like what did I actually do something impressive like do some analysis and find a token and bought bought it in the open market or was it just virtue of I knew the founder and he got me in the round and like now I'm like acting like I'm God's gift to investing, you know? So, it's like >> Yeah, I totally feel you. It feels so clean shilling Z uh Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Zcash, sorry. Feels so clean shilling Zcash and Hyperliquid. >> Yeah, >> because it's like those are liquid. >> Everyone knows that it was a fair game. >> Yeah. >> You know what I mean? Another uh like simple principle that I I try to follow is you know would I buy a token that I'm holding at this price point or or am I just simply holding it and I've been holding it because I got a good entry and um I someone posted or tweeted about this uh like sometime in the last year and and I was like that that is like such a great way to frame up like what are you doing if you're holding a token that you would never buy at this price point. And so to your point, Andy, I have been I have grown much more vocal about the liquid bets that I've made because I I am less uh I'm less interested even even though I most of the bets I've been making are like liquid bets now. I I you know, we've written angel checks here and there, but um we've given up frequent >> Yeah, we've we've uh just given up on that. That's been a disaster. we need to go write the taxes off. >> The the fact that uh regulation has gotten more friendly and uh it's now more possible for anyone to hopefully get access to these early rounds through, you know, a platform like Echo, even though Echo doesn't exist anymore. Uh, I love that idea because that was the whole point of crypto was to give everyone equal access and there's been these like really perverse incentives at times where the insiders get the best bets and then I think that last cycle everyone revolted against that with meme coins. So, we're we're we're just we've learned a lot of lessons and we've lived through a lot. We're in the best place in the history of the digital asset space for um for continued growth. The numbers are still like very small in comparison to where they're headed. Stable coins to tens of trillions and I think DeFi TVL grows to tens of trillions and I think we all believe that I I think you mentioned like Bitcoin at 10 trillion. You know, I I am also still looking at ETH saying, how does this token if it's even just a fraction of Bitcoin and it maintains pace with it or even like eventually accelerates here? I'm like just just a fraction of that means, you know, we're we're talking 10, 20, 30x return in the next few years. So anyways, I I'm I'm very very confident that we're in the we're in the most drisks uh era of crypto we've ever been in. The only thing that is still hanging over our heads is we have to get to postquantum blockchains. Seems like all of the FUD from that, which was very well warranted. It's died down a bit, but um I've paid close attention to Ethereum was very ahead of this. Zcash has been pushing on this. Bitcoin is in a bit of a a >> crazy place. Yeah. But >> and I think uh the quantum stuff is going to be like herpes. You're just going to get these blareups and then they it's going to go away for a long time. Then it's going to blare up again and then it's going to go away for a long time. Two two points to kind of end here. First, I think to your point about equal access ICOs, opening the access and the regulatory kind of headwind string and tailwinds, it's made it easier for us as investors. Why? There's just a cohort of companies now post Hyperlquid that came out and say, \"Hey, we're making money. We're going to allocate that capital to our token holders. It may look like a dividend. It may look like a buyback. It may it may look like a distribution. Doesn't matter. We're going to do it. You can't stop me. And if you can't stop me, then try to compete with me. And wait, you can't compete with me.\" And there's a a a basket of 10 20 assets right now that are making a significant amount of money or have a really good revenue growth story. The absolute wipeout and downfall of our angel portfolios, to be humble, has been a a result of the regulatory arbitrage opportunity being eradicated in favor for really high quality founders with really good PMF and real businesses on chain. Those are going to keep rising to the top uh and the bottom is going to be left out. It's going to be an extreme power law over the next one to two years. Very tough to be a bad founder in in in the past. It wasn't that hard in crypto to be a bad founder and do very well for yourself. Very, very tough to be a bad founder. On the contrary, great time to be a great founder. Great time to have a unique value prop, to have a great business. The regulatory is behind you. The institutions are coming to literally deposit trillions of dollars into the blockchain ecosystem. If you have Lindy, if you have a good product, if you have a good team, if you know your skill set and you have some sort of core unfair advantage, it is the golden heyday of digital assets. That's that. Second is we are in the beginning stages, the exit of the disbelief phase in the market. I believe that this next leg is going to be the most aggressive leg of this bull market. Meaning that this is when we really really see uh kind of the world wake up to what's happening. You know, once Bitcoin breaks out to all-time highs, you do get this crazy aggressive rally uh across the board, but the gains are made from positioning right now and over the last couple months before that breakout happens. and then thinking about kind of changing your psychology post Bitcoin alltime high, third cycle. I'm not trying to do the first two cycles all over again here, guys. Uh this is how I'm thinking about it. I think that the next leg is going to be very aggressive. I think there's no reason to be bearish. We talked a lot about outperformance and picking the right names. I honestly think um outside if you look at the store value assets and the set of 10 or 20 kind of onchain businesses, if you just do a diversified strategy, you're going to do well. I think that's just like where we're at. I don't think spray and prey works. Thank you guys for having us. I think we are in at the cusp of the world rewaking up to just to digital assets, an institutional bull run with capital coming in like we've never seen. Tokenized assets flooding the entire blockchain ecosystem. The AI world waking up to the realities of privacy that a lot of the technology has been built on chain. uh stable coins being absolutely exploding to the tune of billions of stable coins being minted in a matter of days next year by large banks post genius being fully implemented. I'm talking I'm talking trillions of dollars of stable coins in the total supply by the end of the year or early 2028. Pers are going to continue to eat the global derivatives markets. We're less than 1%. If we get to 1 2 3% we're talking about multiples in terms of volume fees for hyperlquid, lighter and variational. Um, and the world of store of value assets is only going to continue in this postb blue tsunami. The fiat debasement trade is going to be back. It's going to really really benefit Bitcoin, Ethereum, uh, and probably Zcash, gold, uh, and maybe a couple other kind of hard assets. I think these forces are coming together. We are on the precipice of the biggest bull run we've ever seen since 2017. I firmly believe that 2024 was really not a real bull run. I believe 2021 was just a COVID induced stimulus with no real fundamentals backing it. We have real fundamentals and we have real kind of catalyst outside with regulatory backing to really make this the kind of the one uh over the next kind of 5 years really I think even shorter 2 3 years that we'll get this really big explosion. So the time is now guys. Thank you for having us. Uh, and that's my bullish, over-the-top rant to end us out. >> Well said. Um, ju just a few quick notes here for our listeners before we go. Uh, folks should uh go watch all of the awesome content you guys do at the rollup. Uh, go check out the rollup.co. Make sure you follow the rollup co on Twitter. Follow Andy's personal handle at a N dy y. That's three Y's. And then Robbie's is Robbie Clagages. That's Cla's with a K uh first and last name and we'll put that into the show notes as well. Um and then guys, thank you for being so generous with your time. What a great day to uh get to talk with both of you. >> So, you guys rock. We're >> recording this just the day after the the election. So, um we're hopeful to have this out in the next like 24 hours, but um yeah, anyways, hopefully this is like timely uh analysis for folks to consider all that's ahead. But guys, we'd love to have you back in the future. And yeah, thank you again. >> Thank you. Look forward to having you guys on the rollup soon. >> Thanks everyone for tuning in. To stay uptodate with future episodes, plus get expert tips, strategies, and exclusive content, subscribe to our free newsletter at the edge.xyz.","textShort":"Could A \"Hated Rally\" Fuel Crypto’s Next Leg? What The Midterms and The Binance Hack Mean for Crypto\n\nThe whole time I've been in crypto, like people have said, \"Oh man, if Binance ever gets hacked, it's game over. Like, we're screwed. Like, pack it up. Go home. Absolutely…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAYnjUSxWdI"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T19:40:36.719Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"b8157bfd-1289-40c8-a6df-deb1070f036a","observations":[{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["Oracle stock, $ORCL, falls -5%","Microsoft ends its deal to rent AI cloud capacity"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"A quoted news item says Oracle shares fell 5% after Microsoft ended its deal to rent AI cloud capacity.","topic":"oracle stock drop"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Oracle is now down -68% from its record high"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The post says Oracle is down 68% from its record high.","topic":"oracle stock from record high"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:ORCL","confidence":0.76,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":114.765,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T19:40:26.491Z","headline":"Expects Oracle to benefit from selling AI capacity short term or on the spot market","id":"sig_db297565eb3b4f829df723b0","matched":["$ORCL will do better selling this capacity short term or spot","This is good for Oracle"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source expects Oracle to do better selling capacity short term or on the spot market than under its old long-term agreement with Microsoft.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"ORCL","tags":["oracle","ai cloud","capacity sales"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"877661c3-8d99-441e-9e5d-0e3c2653d82d","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T19:39:43.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1997725054403026944/FLW0GWcO_normal.jpg","handle":"@danielnewmanUV","id":"x-228918333","name":"Daniel Newman","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"$ORCL will do better selling this capacity short term or spot than it was in an old long term agreement with $MSFT. \nThis is good for Oracle and a silly reason to be dumping. 😐 https://t.co/67pQ1d6Iud\n\nQuoting: BREAKING: Oracle stock, $ORCL, falls -5% after Microsoft ends its deal to rent AI cloud capacity from the company.\n\nOracle is now down -68% from its record high. https://t.co/SshVPMuGH5","textShort":"$ORCL will do better selling this capacity short term or spot than it was in an old long term agreement with $MSFT. \nThis is good for Oracle and a silly reason to be dumping. 😐 https://t.co/67pQ1d6Iud\n\nQuoting: BREAKING: Oracle stock, $ORCL, falls -5% after Microsoft ends…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/danielnewmanUV/status/2118790449741582740"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T19:31:32.550Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"894647b7-710e-4963-a28a-9022c11e1d56","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["60% drawdown in 6 weeks"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The post says INTC fell 60% over six weeks.","topic":"intc recent price performance"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:INTC","confidence":0.95,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":1,"entryPx":56.7865,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T19:31:09.782Z","headline":"The source is long INTC on a retest and expects a bounce","id":"sig_07c4b399c3a945088b96ef3d","matched":["im long on this retest","pls give local low for nice bounce on $INTC"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source is long INTC on this retest and expects a bounce after its sharp six-week drop.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"INTC","tags":["retest","bounce","long position"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"a5329116-73a5-439b-be4a-3bd5b3bed832","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T19:29:47.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1756954782911307776/70H90-Gh_normal.jpg","handle":"@that1618guy","id":"x-990148009085169665","name":"that1618guy","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"pls give local low for nice bounce on $INTC \n\nim long on this retest after a 60% drawdown in 6 weeks, is that too much to ask tradfi gods? https://t.co/L5MTL2d08V https://t.co/PBgc8sHujJ\n\nQuoting their own post: eh so when is $INTC a buy, perhaps rn for a decent bounce at the 1W 200ema? https://t.co/i6JsyZ95AE","textShort":"pls give local low for nice bounce on $INTC \n\nim long on this retest after a 60% drawdown in 6 weeks, is that too much to ask tradfi gods? https://t.co/L5MTL2d08V https://t.co/PBgc8sHujJ\n\nQuoting their own post: eh so when is $INTC a buy, perhaps rn for a decent bounce at the…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/that1618guy/status/2118787953585717359"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T18:37:51.072Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"73f1bcf0-e7d4-4ec9-8cb1-6211bc165508","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["I REMAIN AN OPTIMIST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS","DATA CENTER SLOWDOWN MEANS LESS DEMAND FOR CHIPS"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The speakers see ongoing AI demand and potential long-term growth, while warning that data center delays could reduce chip demand and unsettle markets.","topic":"ai and data center buildout"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["IT COULD BECOME CLOSER TO TRILLION"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The broadcast says several potential investors think Anthropic’s proposed IPO valuation should be lower.","topic":"anthropic ipo valuation"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["155,000 JOBS CREATED","DROPPING TO 4.1%"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The October jobs report showed stronger-than-expected job growth and a lower unemployment rate.","topic":"u.s. labor market"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["SAMANTHA DART EXPECTING CRUDE TO FINISH THE YEAR ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS","RAISING THE PRICE FORECAST"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The broadcast reports Goldman Sachs’s expectation that crude will finish the year above $100 per barrel.","topic":"crude oil outlook"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["WORST SELLOFF IN U.S. STOCK SINCE MARCH OF 2020","NASDAQ FUTURES UP 1.3%"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"U.S. stocks suffered a major selloff and then saw a tech-led rebound.","topic":"u.s. equities"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:TLT","confidence":0.9,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":5,"entryPx":82.2895,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T18:37:29.918Z","headline":"Priya Misra says Treasuries remain a useful hedge","id":"sig_6114647478ab4a1dacf327e1","matched":["TREASURIES ARE WORKING AS A HEDGE AGAINST RISK ASSETS","WE CONTINUE TO OWN SOME DURATION"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"Misra says Treasuries are hedging risk assets and that she continues to own duration, favoring Treasury bonds.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"TLT","tags":["treasuries","bonds","duration"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"para:2Y","confidence":0.68,"dex":"para","earlierSameDirection":2,"entryPx":4.52715,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T18:37:29.918Z","headline":"Aditya Bhave expects the Fed to keep hiking, putting upward pressure on short-term yields","id":"sig_610ae679d001472b860785cc","matched":["WE THINK THEY SHOULD KEEP HIKING"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"Bhave says the Fed should keep raising rates, which can push short-term Treasury yields higher.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"2Y","tags":["fed","interest rates","treasury yields"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:AMD","confidence":0.9,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":1,"entryPx":440.805,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T18:37:29.918Z","headline":"Jay Goldberg sees AMD’s selloff as overdone and likes its growth prospects","id":"sig_b9b5414536a94e248048be5e","matched":["AMD IS FIRING ON ALL CYLINDERS","I UPGRADED","GROWING INCREDIBLY FAST"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"Jay Goldberg says AMD is firing on all cylinders, has upgraded it, and sees it growing quickly.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":true,"sym":"AMD","tags":["semiconductors","earnings","growth"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:NVDA","confidence":0.85,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":2,"entryPx":187.035,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T18:37:29.918Z","headline":"Jay Goldberg sees NVIDIA as attractive after the selloff","id":"sig_a67ae1bd41a34cc7a154d5b9","matched":["NVIDIA HIT MY PRICE TARGET YESTERDAY","STARTING TO LOOK VERY ATTRACTIVE"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"Jay Goldberg says the broad selloff was overdone and NVIDIA looks attractive after reaching his price target.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":true,"sym":"NVDA","tags":["semiconductors","valuation","selloff"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:SMH","confidence":0.78,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":1,"entryPx":462.05,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T18:37:29.918Z","headline":"Sébastien Page favors investing in semiconductor stocks","id":"sig_be1309d7c4aa4de1a48f92f4","matched":["OVERWEIGHTS IN SOME OF THE SEMI CONDUCTORS","I THINK BOTH. 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Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Bloomberg Surveillance 11/6/2026\n\n>> THERE IS A PAINFUL TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THIS MARKET UNDERNEATH. >> IF YOU LOOK AT THE CYCLE, I'VE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING QUITE LIKE IT. >> THE CONCERN OVER THE AI BUILDOUT IS SOMEWHAT OVERBLOWN. I LOOK AT IT MORE AS A SPEED OUT -- SPEEDBUMP. >> IT IS MORE A REASSESSMENT OF THE AI TRAIT. >> A LITTLE BIT OF THESE LOW DOWN TO REACH THE LEVEL OF ADOPTION WE NEED TO REACH THIS AI BUILDOUT IS A GOOD THING. FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ, AND ANNMARIE HORDERN. LISA: GOOD MORNING. LIVE FROM YOUR, WELCOME TO \"BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE.\" PICKING UP THE PIECES AFTER THE WORST SELLOFF IN U.S. STOCK SINCE MARCH OF 2020, ERASING TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF MARKET VALUATION, PAIN BROADENING OUT WELL BEYOND TECH, LEAVING TRADERS SEARCHING FOR ANSWERS AND HAVENS. EVEN MORE QUESTIONS FOR ANTHROPIC AND ITS IMPENDING IPO. WILL YOU BE ABLE TO COME TO MARKET THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS? ANNMARIE: ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHEN WHY WOULD YOU WANT TO COME TO MARKET NOW WHEN YOU SEE THE PHILLY SEMI CONDUCTOR INDEX DOWN 12%, THE S&P DOWN MORE THAN 4%, THE BIGGEST SLUM SINCE TRUMP'S LIBERATION DAY AND ALL THAT VOLATILITY. THEN THIS ARTICLE IN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ABOUT ANTHROPIC AND HOW INVESTORS ARE SKEPTICAL OF ACTUALLY HOW MUCH THEY WILL BE WORTH, IN TERMS OF THE VALUATION. IS IT .5 TRILLION, IS A POTENTIALLY LESS? AND ANOTHER INVESTOR WHO PLANS TO PARTICIPATE IN ANTHROPIC SAYS IT MIGHT WAIT FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. LISA: HOW MUCH OF THIS IS TIED TO THE ELECTION AND HOW MUCH IS THE SYSTEMATIC TRADING? ULTIMATELY THERE HAS TO BE PART TIED TO THE ELECTION. WE SAW GLIMMERS OF THAT WITH THE BEATING UP OF SEMIS WE SAW OVER THE PAST NUMBER OF WEEKS. THAT SAID, WHAT HAPPENED AFTER THE MARKETS OPENED YESTERDAY AT 9:30 A.M.? ANNMARIE: WHAT WAS STRIKING WAS THERE WAS NOT A PARTICULAR CATALYST DRIVING THEM. OF COURSE, THE MIDTERM RESULTS WERE IN FOCUS, BUT THEY ALREADY KNEW THE PREVIOUS DAY AFTER EQUITIES HAD A HUGE RALLY. IS IT AN EXCUSE OR IS THE MARKET GET DONE? THERE IS A COMPANY THAT GOES THROUGH ALL THE DATA CENTERS AND THE STICKS AND SHOVELS ALREADY BEING DONE, SOME STILL WAITING FOR LEGISLATIVE APPROVAL. ABOUT 40% OF PENDING DATA CENTER CAPACITY IN THE U.S. IS PLANNING TO BE BUILT IN STATES WHERE NEWLY ELECTED GOVERNORS SAY COME HOLD UP, AT MINIMUM, WE NEED TO SLOW DOWN. LISA: WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE FED, THE POTENTIAL THEY COULD HIKE RATES QUICKLY? MARKETS ARE MOVING IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION, TAKING BACK THE CHANCES OF A FED RATE HIKE. YOU NOW HAVE A 68% CHANCE OF A FED RATE HIKE COMING IN DECEMBER. A QUESTION WHETHER THIS SELLOFF IS DOING THE WORK FOR THEM. ANNMARIE: EXACTLY. THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN WE WERE SITTING AROUND THIS TABLE, IT WAS A NORTH OF 80% CHANCE THE FED WOULD BE HIKING WHEN THEY KICK OFF THAT MEETING DECEMBER 9. REMEMBER, IN THE PRESS CONFERENCE, WHAT HAPPENED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF ISSUES WITH COREWEAVE AND THE NEOCLOUDS, THE FED CHAIR WAS ALMOST CLOSE TO SAYING THE MARKET IS DOING SOME OF THE WORK FOR US. LISA: TODAY IS MARKET LABOR DAY. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON, TRYING TO RATCHET BACK A SENSE OF CALM IN MARKETS. FUTURES INFLECTING UPWARD, LED BY BIG TECH. NASDAQ FUTURES UP BY 1.3%, AT A TIME WHEN PEOPLE ARE STRUGGLING TO UNDERSTAND WHETHER THIS IS FUNDAMENTALLY DRIVEN OR THIS IS JUST SYSTEMIC TRADING. 2'S, TIMES, 30'S, THE BID AT THE FRONT END OF THE YIELD CURVE WAS VERY STRONG YESTERDAY. TODAY, YOU ARE SEEING A BIT OF A GIVE BACK. PEOPLE TRY TO UNDERSTAND IS THIS LABOR MARKET STRONG? IF IT IS, WHAT DO YOU DO WITH A MARKET SELLOFF THAT COULD BE A BLIP? TAKE A LOOK AT THESE SPECIFIC NAMES UNDERPINNING THIS. WE HAVE SEEN HYPERSCALERS GAINING STEAM AFTER THE ELECTION, SEMIS FALLING OUT OF BED. WE REVERSED THAT. MICROSOFT LOWER BY ABOUT 1.5%, AMAZON LOWER BY 0.9%, META JUST EKING OUT GAINS. SEMIS RIPPING, SO BUY THE DIP STRONG. NVIDIA SHARES UP 4%. THEY HAD BEEN UP 4.5% JUST A MOMENT AGO. 6.8% UP IN AMD. COMING UP, SEBASTIEN PAGE AS AI FEARS TRIGGER A MARKET MELTDOWN, CLAYTON ALLEN AS DEMOCRATS CALL FOR RESEARCH AND ON THE DATA CENTER BOOM. AND ADITYA BHAVE NOT EXPECTING ANY JUMP SCARES FROM THE OCTOBER PAYROLLS, WHICH TODAY SEEMS LIKE A BIT OF AN AFTER STOP -- AFTERTHOUGHT. THE SELLOFF SLAMMING THE GLOBAL MARKETS WITH THE KOSPI PLUNGING. MATT BLOXHAM OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE JOINS US NOW FOR MORE. WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS? MATT: OBVIOUSLY IT HAS BEEN A TOPSY-TURVY COUPLE OF DAYS. PERHAPS WE DID SEE THE SEMI NAMES DIP TOO MUCH, IF YOU ARE LOOKING TO BALANCE THINGS OUT. ULTIMATELY, CLEARLY WITH THE DEMOCRAT IN, THERE IS A CONSENSUS VIEW THAT THE PACE OF DATA CENTER CAPACITY BUILDOUT IS GOING TO BE SLOWER, AND THAT IS INEVITABLY GOING TO HAVE SOME IMPACT, PARTICULARLY ON THINGS LIKE THE NEOCLOUDS, BUT ALSO THE LIKES OF NVIDIA. FOUR FROM MY PERSPECTIVE, THE OVERALL AI TRAIT IS NOT BROKEN. THERE IS STILL A HUGE AMOUNT OF ENTERPRISE DEMAND FOR AR SOLUTIONS. THAT WILL PLAY OUT OVER TIME. THAT MAY BE A SLIGHTLY NARROWER SLOPE WE SEE, BUT IT WILL PLAY OUT. LISA: MATT BLOXHAM, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING WITH US. THE VIEW FROM WALL STREET. SEBASTIEN PAGE OF T. ROWE PRICE WRITING THE AI TRAIT IS VULNERABLE IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL, I BELIEVE IT REMAINS A DRIVER OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POSITIVE STOCK RETURNS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS. HE JOINS US NOW FOR MORE TO HELP US UNDERSTAND EXACTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING. ARE YOU GOING IN AND BUYING AGGRESSIVELY RIGHT NOW, IF YOU BELIEVE, IN 12 TO 18 MONTHS, YOU WILL BE THANKFUL? SÉBASTIEN: NOT AGGRESSIVELY, BUT THERE ARE CERTAINLY OPPORTUNITIES TO SURVIVE. I THINK MATT GOT IT RIGHT. HE TALKED ABOUT THE END DEMAND BY ENTERPRISES. IT'S ACCELERATING, NOT SLOWING. I WILL SAY THE END DEMAND FOR USERS IS ALSO ACCELERATING, NOT SLOWING. A LOT OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH DEPLOYING AI AGENTS. JPMORGAN ESTIMATES THAT, IF YOU DEPLOY AND AI AGENT, YOU NEED 10X TO 100X MORE COMMUTE. SO THE DEMAND FOR COMMUTE -- COMPUTE IS THERE. IT COMES DOWN TO LOOKING AT THE TOKENS. TOKEN PRICES ARE CRASHING, DOWN 30% OVER FOUR WEEKS. BUT TOKEN DEMAND IS UP 37%. THEN YOU LOOK AT THE TOKEN SPEND, WHICH IS WHAT REALLY MATTERS. THESE WORRIES. IT'S ACTUALLY UP 9% OVER THE LAST FOUR WEEKS. BY THE WAY, ALL THIS DATA ON TOKEN DEMAND AND SUPPLY AND COMPUTE DEMAND AND SUPPLY, IT IS NOT PERFECT. WE ARE TRYING TO ESTIMATE DIFFERENT SOURCES FOR IT. BUT MY BIG TAKEAWAY IS THE DEMAND IS ACCELERATING FOR THE END PRODUCT. IT IS CLEAR THE DATA CENTER SLOWDOWN MEANS LESS DEMAND FOR CHIPS. THAT WAS PART OF THE SELLOFF YESTERDAY. BUT I REMAIN AN OPTIMIST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS. LISA: YOU'RE TALKING FUNDAMENTALS. FUNDAMENTALS SEEMED TO HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY. IT DID NOT SEEM THERE WERE EXACT RATIONALES BETWEEN PARTICULAR SELLING. IT WAS A PUKE, A DUMP, A LIQUIDATION. PEOPLE ARE LOOKING TO UNWIND SOME OF THE POSITIONS THEY HAD CLEAR FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE, IS THIS A SAFE MARKET TO GET INVOLVED WITH, IF YOU DO NOT FULLY UNDERSTAND THE TECHNICALS AND HOW MUCH MORE THAT IS LEFT AFTER THAT? SÉBASTIEN: I THINK \"PUKE\" IS A TECHNICAL MARKET TERM, OF COURSE. IT WAS SENTIMENT AND POSITIONING IT, A LOT OF THIS. WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THIS AT THE OPENING OF THE SHOW. THERE WAS NOT ANY BIG NEWS BETWEEN THE ELECTION OUTCOME THE FIRST DAY AND THE BIG SELLOFF YESTERDAY. I WAS LOOKING FOR IT THIS MORNING. WHAT WAS THE ACTUAL TRIGGER? A LOT OF IT SMELLS OF SENTIMENT AND CROWDED POSITIONING. BUT I WILL COUNTER THIS BY SAYING, LOOK, NVIDIA THIS MORNING TRADING AT 12.6 TIMES EARNINGS. IT WAS TRADING AT 30 TIMES EARNINGS 12 MONTHS AGO. YOU ACTUALLY HAVE VALUATIONS, FROM A MORE FUNDAMENTAL PERSPECTIVE, THAT ARE \"SAFER.\" I DO NOT WANT TO DIMINISH THE FACT THE VIX JUMPED ALMOST 30. BUT IF YOU ARE A VALUATION INVESTOR AND ZOOM OUT AND FOCUS ON ACTUAL AR DEMAND, AND YOU LOOK AT THE MARKET, THE MARKET IS PRICING IN DECELERATION IN EARNINGS. I DO THINK THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY HERE. WE ARE SLIGHTLY OVERWEIGHT LARGE-CAP GROWTH STOCKS, AND SOME OF OUR STRATEGIES IN OUR GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY STRATEGIES, FOR EXAMPLE, WE HAVE OVERWEIGHTS IN SOME OF THE SEMI CONDUCTORS, AS WELL AS THE HYPERSCALERS. IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO BUY WITH HIGHER VOLATILITY IN PRICES, BUT -- ANNMARIE: ARE THERE PARTS OF THE MARKETS ACTUALLY DIGESTING WHAT THESE VERY BIG WINS FOR THE DEMOCRATS MEANS, ESPECIALLY FOR TEXAS, WHICH IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST PARTS IN THE COUNTRY FOR DATA CENTERS. NOT JUST A GOVERNOR SENATOR, THE ATTORNEY GENERAL WILL BE A DEMOCRAT. SÉBASTIEN: IT IS A GOOD QUESTION. SOMETIMES, I TEND, IN MY MIND AND PROCESS, I TEND TO THINK LESS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF POLITICS ON MARKETS. I DO NOT EVEN LIKE TO TALK ABOUT POLITICS ANYWAYS AREA BUT THERE IS SOMETHING REAL WITH THE DATA CENTER SLOWDOWNS. THERE ARE, HOWEVER, 500 PROJECTS ALREADY IN MOTION. SO IT IS HARDER TO STOP THESE. YOU CAN SLOW THEM DOWN, YOU CAN PULL THE PERMIT FOR THE ENERGY SUPPLY. IMAGINE YOU BUILD A DATA CENTER AND YOU CANNOT POWER IT PEER THAT IS A PROBLEM. THIS IS ONE CASE WHERE I THINK POLITICS ACTUALLY DO MATTER FOR THE BUILDOUT. YOU HAVE HAD PEOPLE ON \"SURVEILLANCE\" -- I STILL LISTEN EVERY DAY -- YOU HAVE A LOT OF GUESTS ON \"SURVEILLANCE\" TALK ABOUT THE COUNTERINTUITIVE FACT THAT SLOWING DOWN AD BUILDOUT WILL SLOW DOWN DEMAND FOR CHIPS, BUT WE ARE GOING SO FAST, AND IT IS NOT EASY TO SPEND .5 TRILLION, THAT TO JUST THROTTLE IT, SLOW IT DOWN, WILL ACTUALLY REDUCE THE HUGE DEMAND FOR FINANCING. TO LISA'S TECHNICAL TERM, THERE COULD BE A PUKE ON THE BOND SIDE AS WELL. IF YOU SLOW IT ALL DOWN A LITTLE BIT, AND DEMAND REMAINS STRONG, IT MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A HEALTHY THING, IF YOU ZOOM OUT ON WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW. LISA: YOU THINK THIS IS A TIME TO GET INTO SEMIS OR HYPERSCALERS? SÉBASTIEN: I THINK BOTH. DIVERSIFY BOTH. IF I LOOK AT THE GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY, HE IS HOLDING BOTH. SELECTIVELY, SEMI CONDUCTORS, SEDUCTIVELY HYPERSCALERS. IT WAS INTERESTING. IF YOU REDUCE CAPACITY MY THEN YOU HAVE A HYPERSCALER WITH COMPUTE CAPACITY, NOW THE PRICE, THE VALUE OF THAT EXIST IN CAPACITY, GOES UP. THIS IS ONE THING ABOUT THE AI TRAIT. AS MUCH AS I AM AN OPTIMIST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS, ACTIVE SELECTION -- I KNOW IT IS A CLICHÉ, BUT WINNERS AND LOSERS IS REALLY GOING TO MATTER MORE AND MORE AS WE SEE WHAT UNFOLDS THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. LISA: SÉBASTIEN PAGE OF T. ROWE PRICE, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING WITH US. DEFINITELY THIS MORNING, I UNDERSTAND THE FUNDAMENTAL STORY, BUT INCREASINGLY I'M LOOKING AT THE TECHNICALS. THIS FROM MORGAN STANLEY, THAT OCTOBER MARKED THE LARGEST UNWINDING OF POSITIONING IN A DECADE. MORE THAN 40% OF STOCKPICKING HEDGE FUNDS ARE EITHER FLAT OR NEGATIVE FOR THE YEAR THROUGH OCTOBER. IT DOES RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE. IT DOES FEEL IT WAS NOT EXACTLY BEING DRIVEN BY LOGICAL, WELL THOUGHT OUT DISCUSSION YESTERDAY. ANNMARIE: NO, IT JUST FELT LIKE PEOPLE ARE BEING PUSHED OUT AND THEY HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO DUMP. DAN IVES, MAY BE CLOSER THAN EVER TO COMING ON WITH A NEW SUIT, GETTING TAILORED WITH JONATHAN, SAYING WE BELIEVE BIG TECH PEAKS IN 2027 HEAD OF OUR PREVIOUS VIEW WHERE IT WOULD NOT HAPPEN UNTIL 2028. SO IT IS NOT JUST POLITICS, AND MAYBE PART OF IT IS AN EXCUSE. LISA: LET'S GET AN UPDATE ON STORES ELSEWHERE. HERE IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF WITH VONNIE QUINN. VONNIE: PRESIDENT TRUMP HOLDING TALKS WITH QATAR OVER WAYS TO DE-ESCALATE WITH IRAN. ACCORDING TO THE OFFICE OF THE QATARI EMIR, THE TWO HELD TALKS ABOUT MARITIME NAVIGATION AND SECURITY SUPPLIES. QATAR IS ACTING AS A CHIEF MEDIATOR BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN AS THE WAR ENTERS ITS NINTH MONTH. FEDERAL RESERVE PRESIDENT JOHN WILLIAMS SAYING WAIT FOR THE DATA. >> INFLATION IS ABSOLUTELY TOO HIGH, TOO HIGH FOR TOO LONG, AND IT REFLECTS THESE VARIOUS SHOCKS, SUPPLY SHOCKS AND NOW ALSO THE AI DEVELOPMENTS, WHICH ARE ADDING TO INFLATION, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT RUN. VONNIE: FED OFFICIALS LOOKING TO TODAY'S JOBS TO HELP DETERMINE THE FED'S POLICY PATH FROM HERE. NVIDIA STEPPING UP MONITORING OF AI CHIPS SOLD IN SOUTHEAST ASIA. PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER TELLING US THAT BLOOMBERG THE CHIPMAKER IS REQUIRING CUSTOMERS TO ENROLL IN A SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS HARDWARE MOVEMENT AND OTHER METRICS. NVIDIA IS FACING PRESSURE TO CRACK ON ALLEGED SMUGGLING OF ADVANCED CHIPS INTO CHINA. LISA: UP NEXT, THE DATA CENTER BOOM FACING BACKLASH. >> WE WILL CASH -- PASS LEGISLATION AND GUARD RAILS AI, SPECIFICALLY IT IS ENTERS. >> IT IS NOT THAT I HATE DATA CENTERS, I HATE THE WAY THEY ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TEXAS. >> A MORATORIUM ON DATA CENTERS AS IS -- IS EXACTLY WHAT. . THE MAKE AND PEOPLE WANT LISA: THIS IS \"BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE.\" ♪ LISA: TRYING TO ACT LIKE NOTHING HAPPENED YESTERDAY. TODAY, WE SEE GREEN ON THE SCREEN, PARTICULARLY BIG TECH. LOOKS LIKE WE ARE TRYING TO ADD TO YESTERDAY'S CARNAGE. NASDAQ FUTURES UP 1.3%. A LOT, YESTERDAY AFTER THE WORST ONE-DAY LOSS AND A RECORD ONE-DAY LOSS IN MARKET VALUATION, THE WORST IN TERMS OF SCOPE GOING BACK TO MARCH OF 2020. A BID INTO BONDS AS PEOPLE LOOK FOR HAVENS YESTERDAY, TODAY TAKING THAT A LITTLE BACK TO THE FRONT END REALLY TOOK THE RALLY YESTERDAY AS PEOPLE RATCHETED BACK EXPECTATIONS FOR ANY KIND OF FED RATE HIKE. WHAT WAS THE ACTUAL RHETORIC WE HEARD FROM DEMOCRATS AFTER THEIR WIN ABOUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH THEY COULD POTENTIALLY RATCHET BACK DATA CENTERS? ANNMARIE: THE TEXAS GOVERNOR LEG WITH WE HAVE ALWAYS BEEN A PRO-BUSINESS STATE. SHE SAID THE DIFFERENCE IS WE NEED LAWS TO PROTECT TEXANS, WE NEED TO STOP WHAT THEY'RE DOING WITH DATA CENTERS UNTIL WE HAVE THESE PROTECTIONS. BASICALLY SAYING SHE WANTS TO GET RID OF MORE NONDISCLOSURE AGREEMENTS AND SEE PROTECTIONS OF DATA CENTERS MOVING INTO THE RURAL COMMUNITY. IT WAS NOT LIKE SHE WAS SAYING I AM ENDING DATA CENTERS ASAP, THERE IS A SLOW DOWN AND A PAUSE UNTIL WE GET LEGISLATIVE WORK THROUGH. IT IS NOT THAT I HATE DATA CENTERS, IT IS I HATE HOW THEY ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TEXANS, THAT WAS HER MESSAGE. LISA: VERSUS WHAT BERNIE SANDERS SAID. >> WE WILL PASS LEGISLATION AND MAKE ROSE ON AI, PARTICULARLY DATA CENTERS. >> IT IS NOT THAT I HATE DATA CENTERS, I HATE THE WAY THEY ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TEXAS. >> A MORATORIUM ON DATA CENTERS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WANT. LISA: DEMOCRATS TAKING AIM AT AI INFRASTRUCTURE FOLLOWING THEIR MIDTERM SWEEP AS PRESIDENT TRUMP BLAMES THE LEFT FOR THE MARKET ROUT. BLOOMBERG'S TYLER KENDALL JOINS US NOW. TYLER: GOOD MORNING. THE ELECTORAL RESULTS ARE ADDING TO THE PRESSURE THAT DATA CENTER DEVELOPERS AND THEIR CUSTOMERS WERE ALREADY FACING. BUT NOW YOU HAVE NEWLY ELECTED GOVERNORS IN STATES LIKE OHIO, GEORGIA, MICHIGAN, AND TEXAS WHO ALL CAME -- CAMPAIGNED ON REININ G IN DEVELOPMENT. AND THESE ARE STATES WHERE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN BOOMING. 40% OF PLANNED DATA CENTER CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO BE BUILT IN STATES WHERE THE GOVERNOR-ELECT HAS PLEDGED TO EITHER STOP OR PAUSE CONSTRUCTION COMPLETELY, ACCORDING TO MARKET INTELLIGENCE COMPANY CLEANVIEW. THE POLLING SHOWED US THIS WAS A POLITICALLY POPULAR ISSUE FOR BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE. A SEPTEMBER SURVEY FROM QUINNIPIAC FOUND 3 OF 4 AMERICANS NOW OPPOSE A DATA CENTER IN THEIR COMMUNITY. A LOT OF THE INITIATIVE WILL BE TAKEN AT THE LOCAL AND STATE LEVEL, BUT YOU HEARD SOME LAWMAKERS ON CAPITOL HILL THERE, AS WE HAVE SEEN A FLURRY OF LEGISLATION, THROUGH IN RECENT MONTHS, SOME THAT COULD IMPOSE A NEW EXCISE TAX ON DATA CENTER DEVELOPMENT, OTHERS THAT COULD EXEMPT DATA CENTERS FROM SOME BUSINESS TAX BREAKS. NOTHING IS REALLY EXPECTED TO GET DONE IN THE LAME-DUCK PERIOD RELATED TO AI, BUT IT IS SETTING UP THE DEBATE WHEN THE NEW CONGRESS IS SWORN IN IN JANUARY. LISA: THANK YOU SO MUCH. CLAYTON ALLEN OF THE EURASIA GROUP WRITING THE DEMOCRATIC SWEEP WILL ONLY HAVE A MODERATE IMPACT ON DATA CENTER POLICY. TELL THAT TO MARKETS. IT SEEMS LIKE PEOPLE ARE EXPECTING A BIG RATCHETING BACK IN TERMS OF DATA CENTER APPROVAL. WHERE ARE YOU GETTING YOUR CONFIDENCE AND WILL NOT BE EXACTLY WHAT THE MARKET IS PRICING IN? CLAYTON: SO THE CONFIDENCE COMES IN TWO PLACES. ONE, AS TYLER MENTIONED, THIS IS HAPPENING AT THE STATE AND LOCAL LEVEL. LOOK AT THE TEXAS AND GEORGIA GOVERNOR. BOTH OF THEM RAN AND WON ON A MESSAGE OF DATA CENTER SKEPTICISM BUT NOT A COMPLETE BAN ON DATA CENTERS. THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT CORRECTING SOME OF THE THINGS THEY DISLIKE ABOUT DATA CENTER DEVELOPMENTS. BUT THESE ARE ULTIMATELY TEMPORARY PAUSES. THESE ARE COMPANIES THAT WON IN STATES THAT, UNTIL RECENTLY, WERE PRETTY REPUBLICAN, AND THEY ARE STILL FOCUSED ON ECONOMIC EXPANSION. THESE ARE MORE MODERATE DEMOCRATS, AS A RESULT. THERE IS NO POLITICIAN WHO DOES NOT SEE THE ECONOMIC UPSIDE ON DATA CENTER DEVELOPMENT, THEY JUST WANT TO MAKE SURE IT HAPPENS IN A WAY THAT IT IS POLITICALLY HELPFUL TO THEM. WE THINK THAT LEADS TO A SLOW DOWN THE BEGINNING, BUT ULTIMATELY IT WILL NOT HALT DATA CENTER DEVELOPMENT. ANNMARIE: WHAT HAPPENS THEN ON THE FEDERAL LEVEL? WE HAVE HEARD FROM SOME CONGRESS INDIVIDUALS LIKE AOC AND BERNIE SANDERS WHO WANT TO SHUT IT DOWN. CLAYTON: BERNIE SANDERS IS ABSOLUTELY SOMEONE WHO WAS ALWAYS GOING TO PROPOSE THE MOST EXTREME VERSION OF WHATEVER HIS POLICY AGENDA IS. IT IS PART OF THE REASON HE HAS HAD SUCH A PROMINENT NATIONAL PROFILE FOR SO LONG. HE IS THE GUY WILLING TO SAY I AM WILLING TO DO THESE EXTREME THINGS THAT MAY NOT BE ACCOMPLISHEDABLE. THIS WAS ANOTHER ONE. ANOTHER ONE HE TALKED ABOUT IS EXTENDING MEDICARE COVERAGE TO EVERYONE UP -- FROM THE AGE OF 19 ON, LOWERING THE RETIREMENT AGE TO 55. CAN HE ACCOMPLISH ANY OF THESE THINGS WHILE PRESIDENT TRUMP IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE? NO. CAN HE ACCOMPLISH ANY OF THESE THINGS IN A DEMOCRATIC PARTY TODAY THAT IS MORE GEOGRAPHICALLY DIVERSE AND WILL LARGELY SHIFT MORE TOWARDS A CENTER POLICYMAKING? I DOUBT IT. BUT I THINK SANDERS IS MAKING A GOOD CASE FOR HIMSELF ON TELEVISION, BUT I DO NOT THINK THAT WILL RESULT IN A FUNCTIONAL RESTRICTION. ANNMARIE: WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THESE NEW FRESH DEMOCRATS COMING IN? A LOT OF REPORTERS WERE ASKING, WERE YOU GOING TO TRY TO IMPEACH THE PRESIDENT? A LOT OF THEM KEPT GOING BACK TO I'M GOING TO WASHINGTON WITH A MANDATE ON AFFORDABILITY. WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO PASS? CLAYTON: THAT IS A THING. THEY ARE RIGHT TO SAY THE VERTICAL UPSIDE IN IMMEDIATELY TRYING TO TARGET TRUMP HIMSELF OR IMPEACHMENT IS PRETTY SMALL. TRUMP HAS BEEN IMPEACHED TWICE, INDICTED ONES, SURVIVED ALL THREE OF THEM. DEMOCRATS NEED TO USE THEIR MAJORITY -- LAYING OUT ONE PARTY PLATFORM THAT VOTERS CAN EDIT AND SAVE THESE ARE WHAT THESE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO DO FOR ME. IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO TELL PEOPLE WHAT YOU ARE AGAINST. TO BE A POLITICAL POLITICAL PARTY, YOU HAVE TO TELL THEM WHAT YOU ARE FOR. DEMOCRATS NEED TO CAPITALIZE THEY MADE A LOT MORE PARTS OF THE COUNTRY COMPETITIVE THAT WERE NOT BEFORE, BUT TO DO THAT, YOU NEED A MASSIVE -- MESSAGE OF WHAT YOU WILL ACTUALLY DO. ANNMARIE: WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH? WILL YOU SEE HIM START FIRING PEOPLE, DOES HE LEAN ON LEGACY BUILDING? CLAYTON: THIS IS ONE OF THE INTERESTING TRAITS OF TRUMP'S SECOND TERM. TRADITIONALLY, MIDTERMS ARE WHEN PEOPLE START TO LEAVE. I AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL YOU GET A FULL REVAMP OF THE CABINET. I DO THINK IT IS LIKELY YOU SEE SOME DEPARTURES. WE HAVE SEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF CABINET MEMBERS LOOKING AT THEIR FUTURE POLITICAL CHANCES, SPECIFICALLY PETE HEGSETH AND OTHERS. POTENTIALLY THERE COULD BE DEPARTURES. WHAT HAPPENS TO THE LEVEL JUST BELOW, THE DEPUTIES, THE PEOPLE CENTER CONFIRM BUTTON ON TV EVERY DAY? I THINK YOU WILL SEE A LOT OF THEM START TO LEAVE. LISA: CLAYTON ALLEN OF EURASIA GROUP. ANNMARIE, YOU WERE AMONG THOSE BREAKING THE NEWS THAT SEC. OF STATE MARCO RUBIO IS CONSIDERING DEPARTING THE WAREHOUSE BEFORE THE END OF HIS TERM. RAISING QUESTIONS OF WHO WAS NEXT AND HOW MUCH TURMOIL THERE IS IN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH. ANNMARIE: THIS IS A HUGE QUESTION. NO DECISIONS HAVE BEEN MADE. THERE IS A LOT OF PRESSURE ON EITHER THE PRESIDENT TO ACT OR, WHEN CONGRESS COMES BACK IN, THEY WILL ACT WHEN IT COMES TO DEFENSE SECRETARY PETE HEGSETH. THE PRESIDENT REALLY ONLY HAS SIX WEEKS. HE HAS A MOTOR YOU RIGHT NOW IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE. HE DOES NOT HAVE THAT IN JANUARY. IF HE WANTS A NEW SECRETARY INCOME OF THESE ARE THE MOVES THAT NEED TO BE MADE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NOW? HOW MUCH OF A WHOLESALE REBELLION IS THIS? WE HAVE SEEN THIS FROM A FEW MEMBERS, EVEN JD VANCE. BUT HOW MUCH OF THE RANK-AND-FILE IN CONGRESS? ANNMARIE: I THINK POTENTIALLY THROUGH, ON THE RIGHT MAGA WING OF THE PARTY. LISA: RIGHT NOW, THE MARKETS, THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE MIDTERMS STILL PERCOLATING. WHETHER OR NOT THAT WILL REALLY JUSTIFY THE ROUT WE HAVE SEEN, THE WORST GOING BACK TO MARCH OF 2020. COMING UP, WE SPEAK WITH MATT BRYSON OF WEDBUSH AS CHIP STOCKS FIND SOME STABILITY FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S CARNAGE. THE STOCKS INDEX, SEMI CONDUCTORS IN THE U.S. DOWN ALMOST 40% FROM THEIR JUNE HIGHS. THIS IS \"BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE >> A BIT OF A BOUNCE BACK AFTER YESTERDAYS CARTAGE, PARTICULARLY IN THE TECH STOCKS, IN NVIDIA. THE NASDAQ UP 1.5%. S&P FUTURES EKING OUT A GAIN OF .3%. MOSTLY FLAT WITH A SET OFF COMING ON THE BOND SPACE TAKING BACK A LITTLE BIT OF THE GAINS FROM YESTERDAY'S. THE FRONT END IS TAKING BACK SOME OF THE CONFIDENCE PEOPLE HAD YESTERDAY THAT THE FED MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HIKE AS MUCH AS THEY THOUGHT. TODAY, ADDING TWO YIELDS OF THREE BASIS POINTS. 4.49 PERCENT. IT IS NON-FOREIGN PAYROLL STATE TODAY. IT DID YOU KNOW THAT? >> WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MARKET, IT IS THE LAST THING PEOPLE ARE THINKING OF. OF THE LABOR MARKET HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE. GREAT. MORE DATA. IT'S NOT THE CATALYST WE WERE EXPECTING BECAUSE OF HOW THE LAST 24 HOURS WERE. BRUTAL ACROSS THE FINANCIAL MARKET. >> IT DOES NOT SEEM CONNECTED TO FUNDAMENTALS. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BOND SPACE, YOU HAVE SEEN A FLIGHT TO HAVENS, AT LEAST AT THE MARGINS, MAYBE NOT AS MUCH IS IN THE PAST. TEWS, TENS, 30'S ILLUSTRATING HOW MUCH WE TOOK EACH OF THE MARKET. OF THE DOLLAR IS GAINING STEAM. IT'S UNUSUAL GIVEN THERE WAS A THEORY THE U.S. MARKET WAS THAT MUCH MORE TRIED -- TIED TO THE AI TRADE. YESTERDAY YOU SO WEAKENING. TODAY THERE'S A LOT OF STRENGTH. OF THE EURO IS WEAKER VERSUS THE DOLLAR, 11177. HERE ARE YOUR MORNING MOVERS WITH ISABELLE LEE. ISABELLE: NVIDIA LEADING GAINS IN THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN PRINT WEDNESDAY INVESTORS WERE WELCOME TO THE PROSPECT OF HIGHER REGULATION. ON THURSDAY, THE PROCESS SPOOKED THEM GIVEN HOW MUCH MARKET GROWTH IS TIED TO THE AI TRADE. SOME AI INFRASTRUCTURE NAMES ARE IN THE GREEN. ONE IS BLUE ENERGY. HIGHER IN PREMARKET TRADE, BOOSTING 11%. SPACE. THIS DATA CENTER COMPANY COUNTS MICROSOFT AS ONE OF ITS BACKERS. NEARLY 16% PRINT THE COMPANY REPORTED CLOUD REVENUE THAT NEARLY TRIPLED YEAR OVER YEAR. THAT BEAT ESTIMATES. THEY REPORTED 20% SEQUENTIAL GROWTH IN BACKLOG. INVESTORS CHOSE TO FOCUS ON THOSE TWO. LISA: THANK YOU. DUTCH BANK ING OFFER -- AUCTIONING OFF $5 MILLION ARE DATA CENTER LOANS. PEOPLE TELL US THE DEBT INCLUDES A SLICE OF THE STARGATE AI PROJECT. A REPRESENTATIVE DECLINED TO COMMENT. THERE WAS A HUNT TO FIGURE OUT WHO IS SELLING AND WHAT YESTERDAY. DRAWING THE LINE ON THE FUTURE OF TEXAS DATA CENTERS. >> IT IS NOT THAT I HATE DATA CENTERS. I HATE THE WAY THEY ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TEXAS. TO SAID IN OUR BEACH TO ELON MUSK IS UNIMAGINABLE. -- SELLING OUR BEACH TO ELON MUSK IS UNIMAGINABLE. WE CAN HAVE A STRONG WORKING RELATIONSHIP WITH ELON MUSK AND HIS COMPANIES, BUT IT HAS TO BE ON OUR TERMS. LISA: TEXAS GOVERNOR GINA HINOJOSA PUSHING BACK ON DATA CENTERS. HOW MUCH IS ELON MUSK IN THE CROSSHAIRS WITH ADDITIONAL MARKET VALUE TAKEN AWAY FROM HIS COMPANIES AS PEOPLE EXPECT A TIE BETWEEN TEXAS AND SPACEX WILL BE CALLED INTO QUESTION AS WELL AS ANY REGULATORY OVERSIGHT? >> ABSOLUTELY. YOU WILL GET A SUBPOENA. -- HE WILL GET A SUBPOENA. WE HEARD FROM THE GOVERNOR ABOUT EXACTLY WHAT HER POSITION WASN'T WHAT SHE HAS SAID AND NOT SET ABOUT DATA CENTERS AND ELON MUSK QUOTE TWEETED THAT AND SAID \"INTERESTING.\" >> IF YOU CAN MAKE HIS ARGUMENT FOR DATA CENTERS IN SPACE WITH MAYBE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. THE ANTHROPIC IPO IS INCREASINGLY IN DOUBT ACCORDING TO THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. MAJOR INVESTORS BORN VALUATION IS TOO RICH FOLLOWING THIS WEEK'S SELLOFF WITH SOME SAYING IT COULD BE CLOSE TO TRILLION. OTHER PEOPLE ARE SAYING MAYBE YOU WANT TO MARK THIS FOR A LITTLE BIT AND PUT IT ON THE SIDELINES. LISA: ONE INVESTOR SAID MAYBE WE DELAY THE OFFERING AND WAIT FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. IT IS A ROUGH TIME TO TRY TO IPO AFTER WE HAVE SEEN A HUGE WIPEOUT AND A HUGE SEISMIC SHIFT POLITICALLY. OPENAI BEAT YOU TO THE PUNCH WITH WHAT THEY ARE GOING TO DO WHAT THEY GO INTO THE DATA CENTERS ARE TO WORK WITH COMMUNITY SPREAD WASHINGTON POST THIS MORNING SAYING IT IS LAYING THE GROUNDWORK AT THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES TO INVESTIGATE A NUMBER OF THESE COMPANIES. IN THE STORY ADVENTURE CAPITALISTS -- VENTURE CAPITALISTS HAVE ADVISED SILICON VALLEY STARTUPS ARE CLOSED BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR IN CASE EXECUTIVES ARE CALLED TO HEARING FOR PENTAGON SPENDING PLANS ARE CURTAILED. MAYBE THAT IS A RECENT DEVOTED OFF A LITTLE BIT BUT MAYBE NOT UNTIL THE END OF THE YEAR. LISA: TODAY, THE U.S. STOCK ROUTE USING THE AFTER FEARS OF AR SLOWDOWN TRIGGERED YESTERDAY'S MASSIVE WIPEOUT. CHIPMAKERS BEARING THE BRUNT OF THE SELLOFF. MATT BRYSON OF WEDBUSH WRITING \" EVENTUALLY INVESTMENT WILL STILL HAPPEN DESPITE ANY DELAYS OR BUMPS IN THE ROAD BECAUSE OF THE SIZE OF THE OPPORTUNITY AND THE POTENTIAL PROFIT TO BE MADE.\" DO YOU FEEL LIKE YOU ARE SCREAMING INTO THE WIND BECAUSE NOBODY WANTS TO HEAR ABOUT FUNDAMENTALS NOW? MATT: I FEEL LIKE I HAVE BEEN SCREAMING INTO THE WIND THE LAST FOUR WEEKS. IT IS DIFFICULT TIMES. YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT FUTURE LEGISLATION. YOU ARE CONCERNED AROUND FUTURE FUNDRAISING. IT IS JUST HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT. LISA: DO YOU HAVE A SENSE OF WHAT IS DRIVING THE SKEPTICISM? HOW MUCH IS JUSTIFIED? HOW MUCH I LIKED THE MOMENTUM RALLY WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THAT LEFT IT SO VULNERABLE. -- HOWMATT: THERE IS NO DATA FROM THE HARDWARE SPACE THAT TELLS YOU THINGS HAVE GOTTEN WORSE. WE JUST TALKED TO AMD WHO TALKED TO AMD WHO TALK ABOUT REVENUES FOR COMPUTE DOUBLING DRIVEN BY OPENAI. TALKING ABOUT NOW DOING 20 BILLION PER QUARTER. A COUPLE MONTHS AGO THEY WERE DOING HALF OF THAT. WHAT YOU ARE SEEING FROM COMPANIES NOW IS THEIR RESULTS ARE REALLY, REALLY STRONG. THEIR VISIBILITY IS BETTER THAN IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST IN THE NEXT YEAR. THEY ARE GIVING A REALLY ROSY FORECAST. THERE ARE CONCERNS AROUND WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN. WE DO NOT KNOW UNTIL WE KNOW. ANNMARIE: COULD YOU SLEEP AT ALL LAST NIGHT? WHAT'S WAITING ON YOU? IS IT POLITICS OR CAPEX SPENDING? MATT: IT'S BOTH THOSE THINGS. IT'S REALLY HARD TO KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN. COMPANIES WITH DATA CENTERS ARE MAKING A TON OF MONEY. WHEN I TALK TO NEO-CLOUDS, THEIR PAYBACK TERMS KEEP COMING DOWN. THEY ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE PROFITABLE. MY VIEW IS IF THERE IS MONEY TO BE MADE, PEOPLE WILL FIND A WAY TO INVEST. YES, YOU MIGHT HAVE MORE REGULATION AND WE HAVE TO DO THINGS DIFFERENTLY, BUT PEOPLE WILL FIND A WAY TO PUT BRICK-AND-MORTAR IN THE GROUND. >> DO YOU THINK THE POLITICS BLAME GAME, WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY IN WASHINGTON IS A LITTLE OVERDONE IN THE SENSE THAT THESE GOVERNORS, THE NEW ELECTED OFFICIALS WANT JOBS IN THEIR STATES AS WELL? MATT: EXACTLY. AND WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE U.S., IT'S 50 STATES. IT IS CERTAINLY A PROBLEM IF YOU CAN'T BEAR IT. OF THE NUMBER GETTING TO RUNAROUND EARLIER THIS WEEK WAS SOMETHING LIKE 14 GIGAWATTS AT RISK. IF YOU CAN'T BUILD IN TEXAS CAN YOU BUILD IN NEBRASKA? CAN YOU BUILD IN ARGENTINA? COULD WE SEE DELAYS? YES. THESE MARKET OPPORTUNITIES ARE SO LARGE THAT PEOPLE WILL FIND A WAY TO INVEST. THERE IS LISA: THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER HYPER SKATERS WILL PAY FOR IT AND WHETHER CREDIT MARKETS WILL FACILITATE THAT. THIS HAS BEEN PAIRED WITH QUESTIONS AND PUSHBACK FROM CREDIT INVESTORS IT WILL ONLY COST THEM MORE, NOT LESS. IS THAT A REALISTIC FEAR RIGHT NOW? MATT: IT IS FAIR TO TALK ABOUT CAPITAL AND WHERE CAPITAL CAN COME FROM. ON THE OTHER, YOU HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THE MARKETS WHICH ARE BEING PUT UP FOR GRABS BY AI. SEARCH HAS COMPLETELY CHANGED AND THAT'S A HUGE MARKET. THINK ABOUT WHAT META IS DOING WITH MUSE. IT'S NOT JUST TO BE AT AI AGENT FOR PEOPLE. THEY ARE LOOKING AT IT AS A WAY TO POTENTIALLY OWN THE CONSUMER RELATIONSHIP WITH TECH. YOU TAKE OVER SOMETHING LIKE ANDROID OR IOS AND THOSE ARE HUGE MARKETS. THAT'S NOT EVEN TALKING ABOUT THINGS LIKE PHYSICAL AI OR AUTONOMOUS DRIVING WHERE, AGAIN, YOU ARE DISPLACING HUMAN CAPITAL AND IN THE RETURNS ARE AMAZING. YES, YOU CAN SEE A PAUSE. BUT IF THESE THINGS COME TO FRUITION, YOU JUST NEED MORE COMPUTE. PEOPLE WILL FIND A WAY TO BUILD THAT COMPUTER. LISA: OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE CALLED YOU TO ASK YOU FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS ABOUT THE INVESTMENT PROCESS? MATT: ZERO. IT'S NOT WHAT PEOPLE ARE WORRIED ABOUT NOW. THEY ARE WORRIED ABOUT THEIR PORTFOLIOS COLLAPSING. I HAD A CONVERSATION WITH SOMEBODY YESTERDAY AND THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT THE FACT THAT THEY STILL CANNOT GET SERVER AT DRAM. IT'S NOT AVAILABLE BECAUSE DEMAND IS NOT STRONG. NOBODY IS FOCUSED ON WHAT IS GOING ON TODAY OR WHAT IS GOING ON NEXT QUARTER. WHEN YOU GET TO THE END OF 2027, 2028, IS THERE A PAUSE AND WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? LISA: MATT BRYSON, HAPPY FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A GOOD WEEKEND FOR US ALL TO CATCH UP ON SOME SLEEP. WEDBUSH, A DIVE -- DIFFICULT MOMENT FOR PEOPLE TO EXPLAIN. YOU CAN UNDERSTAND WHY SOMEBODY MIGHT SEE VALUE. LOOK AT MULTIPLES ON THE PROFITABILITY PROSPECT. THIS IS NOT A MARKET LOOKING FOR THAT BRAIDED GOES TO THE QUESTION OF SOMETHING ELSE DRIVING THIS. WHAT IS BEHIND IT? CAN YOU GET IN FRONT OF IT? IS IT CATCHING A FALLING KNIFE? ANNMARIE: IT SEEMS LIKE EVERYBODY WAS LIKE, DUMP AND ASK QUESTIONS LATER. PEOPLE WERE PROBABLY GOING TO SPECULATE, WHAT IS THE POINT OF ALL THIS? AT THE ACCUMULATION OF THINGS. FOR SOME IT IS DIGESTING THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND SEEING THIS WILL BE A LOT SLOWER AND THEY WANT TO UNWIND. THE WHOLE NARRATIVE MAKE IT -- MANIC TO HAVE TAKEN ON A STORY OF ITS OWN. LISA: I AM CURIOUS TO SEE HOW DEMOCRATIC ELECTED OFFICIALS RESPOND TO THIS, WHETHER THEY WELCOME IT OR PUSH BACK AND SAY WE ARE NOT LOOKING TO SLOW THE ECONOMY. IS IT TO GINA HINOJOSA OR BERNIE SANDERS? THE TWO POLES NOW IF POTENTIAL DEMOCRATS. ANNMARIE: LOCALLY, YOU WILL GET MORE INDIVIDUALS TALKING LIKE THE TEXAS GOVERNOR. THEY WILL WORK WITH COMPANIES ON A LOCAL LEVEL TO FIGURE IT OUT BECAUSE THEY REALIZE IT IS GROWTH AND CAPITAL COMING DIRECTLY TO THEIR ECONOMY. ON THE FEDERAL LEVEL I IMAGINE YOU WILL SEE A LOT OF POSTURING. DOES IT ACTUALLY GET DONE? I'M NOT SURE. LISA: HERE IS THE BLOOMBERG BRIEF WITH OVONIC ONE. -- WITH VONNIRE QUINN. VONNIE: DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST THIS YEAR RAHMAN OUSTING BASS IN THE ELECTORAL RACE. WRITING IN A STATEMENT \"THE PEOPLE OF LOS ANGELES HAVE SPOKEN.\" NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG LOSING IN THURSDAY'S SELLOFF, PUSHING THE TECH BOSS OUT OF THE TOP 10 WORLD'S RICHEST LIST DROPPING TO 15 ON THE BLOOMBERG BILLIONAIRES INDEX. HE HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN NINE SPIRIT -- NINTH. LISA: MAYBE HE CANNOT BE AS MUCH OF THE BANK OF AI. OR WILL HE? WE ARE FOCUSED ON THE NON-FOREIGN PAYROLLS REPORT COMING UP. NEXT, BALANCING THE LABOR MARKET. >> I STILL DO NOT THINK I WOULD HAVE HIKED RATES IN SEPTEMBER. CORE CPI IS IN A STRONG PLACE. IT'S NOT A SUPERSTRONG LABOR MARKET THAT MIRRORS RATE HIKES IT IS A VERY PRECARIOUS BALANCE THAT NEEDS SUPPORT. >> COMING UP, WE SPEAK WITH SOMEBODY THAT DOES NOT SHARE THAT VIEW, ADITYA BIHAVE OF BANK OF AMERICA. THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE. GOOD MORNING. LISA: YESTERDAY WAS THE PAIN. MAYBE TODAY IS A BIT OF GAIN. SEEING SIGNS OF LIFE IN THE TECH TRADE AFTER YESTERDAY'S ABSOLUTE BATTERING ACROSS THE BOARD. NASDAQ FUTURES UP ABOUT 1.7%. YOU WOULD NEVER KNOW YESTERDAY WE LOST $2.3 TRILLION IN VALUATION, THE MOST EVER IN THE NASDAQ. NOT SEEING ANYTHING ON THE RUSSELL 2000. I WANT TO TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THESE SEMI NAMES TODAY. YESTERDAY, MASSIVE DECLINES. NVIDIA WAS DOWN SOME 9% BY THE END OF THE TRADING SESSION. THIS MORNING, REBOUNDING NICELY COME UP ABOUT 5% IN FUTURES IN PREMARKET TRADING. AMD UP 8.3%. BROADCOM UP ABOUT 5%. SEEMS THERE IS A BIT OF A REASSESSMENT OF THE BABY THROWN OUT WITH THE BATHWATER, OR MAYBE PEOPLE JUST REASSESSING WHETHER FUNDAMENTALS CAN COME BACK AND PLAY. ANNMARIE: ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THESE SEMI CONDUCTORS AND YOU HEAR PEOPLE TALK ABOUT HOW THEY ARE SO LOW ON CHIPS IN 2027, 2028, A HUGE ISSUE UNTIL 2030. MAYBE FOR THEM THE ISSUE WASTOO OVERBLOWN. AND THE COMPANIES POLITICALLY ARE GOING -- THE MICROSOFTS AND METAS, YOU SEE IT IN THE WASHINGTON POST, HOW CONGRESS IS PREPARING FOR THESE SUBPOENAS. LISA: N/A QUESTION OF WHAT THESE SELLOFFS HAVE MET FOR THE FED. WE HAVE -- AND A QUESTION OF WHAT THE SELLOFFS HAVE MEANT FOR THE FED. AT THE SAME TIME COME ALL THE LABOR MARKET DATA HAS BEEN HOTTER THAN EXPECTED. TODAY IS NONFARM PAYROLLS. I CANNOT BELIEVE WE HAVE TO KEEP REMINDING PEOPLE. I AM REMINDING MYSELF BECAUSE I KEEP FORGETTING THAT IS WHAT IT IS. UNDER SURVEILLANCE, BALANCING THE MARKET. >> CORE CPI IS IN A NORMAL PLACE. THEIR PRIMARY CHARACTERISTIC STILL REMAINS THE RELATIVELY LOW HIRING RATE. IT IS STILL NOT A SUPERSTRONG LABOR MARKET THAT MERETZ RATE HIKES. THIS IS A LABOR MARKET IN A PRECARIOUS BALANCE AND NEEDS SUPPORT. LISA: INVESTORS ARE WAITING PAYROLLS FOR MORE. CLARITY ON THE FED OUTLOOK. ADITYA BHAVE EXPECTING 75,000 JOBS ADDED, WRITING OCTOBER JOBS SHOULD KEEP MARKETS AND THE FED FOCUSED ON INFLATION. WE STILL EXPECT THE FED TO HIKE TWICE MORE, BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE AT A QUARTERLY BASIS. I LAUGH BECAUSE \"SHOULD\" IS ONE THING, WE ARE NOT FOCUSED ON THAT AT ALL. DESCRIBE IS LABOR MARKET IS PRECARIOUS ADITYA: NO, I WOULD DESCRIBE IT THE WAY CHAIR WARSH DOES, WHICH IS IT IS BASICALLY IN BALANCE. UNTIL WAGES INFLECT MEANINGFULLY UPWARDS, I WOULD NOT SAY IT IS HEATING UP. BUT JOB GROWTH IS PROCEEDING AT A PLACE THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST FOLKS THINK IS CONSISTENT. LISA: DO YOU THINK IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A SOURCE OF INFLATION, GIVING JOLTS DATA SHOWING QUITS PICKED UP, ADP DATA SHOWING AN UPSIDE SURPRISE? ADITYA: THAT'S AN INTERESTING CONUNDRUM FOR THE FED. IF A WAGE INFLATION PICKS UP , IT IS ALREADYTOO LATE, YOU ARE ALREADY BEHIND THE CURVE. BUT AT THE MOMENT, ARE YOU SEEING SIGNS OF WAGES PICKING UP? YOU REALLY ARE NOT. ECI HAS BEEN MORE OR LESS FLAT. RIGHT NOW, YOU WOULD VIEW THE LABOR MARKET AS NOT NECESSARILY A SOURCE OF DISINFLATION BUT NOT A SOURCE OF INFLATION EITHER. WHERE ARE THE RISKS SKEWED GOING FURTHER? MAY BE SLIGHTLY IN THE DIRECTION OF INFLATION, BUT AGAIN, YOU WOULD NEED TO SEE SOMETHING MORE TO PUSH YOU OVER THE EDGE. LISA: YOU THINK THE FED IS FOCUS MORE ON NONFARM PAYROLLS OF THE KOSPI THIS MORNING? [LAUGHTER] ADITYA: GREAT QUESTION. I THINK PROBABLY THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN NONFARM PAYROLLS. ANNMARIE: THE FED CHAIR TALKED ABOUT INFORMATION RICH TIME AHEAD OF US. DO YOU THINK THE MIDTERMS WILL IMPACT HOW THIS FED GOVERNS? ADITYA: I DON'T THINK SO, UNLESS THERE IS IN DIRECT EFFECT VIA THE STOCK MARKET, WHICH WOULD HAVE TO BE MORE THAN A DAY. HOPEFULLY THE FED IS NOT SO SCARED OF ITS OWN SHADOW IT IS RESPONDING TO A DAY'S WORTH OF MARKET ACTION. BUT IF YOU HAD SOMETHING MORE MEANINGFUL, IF FINANCIAL CONDITIONS HAVE TIGHTENED IN A SUSTAINED MANNER HEADING INTO DECEMBER, THEY MIGHT RESPOND. SHOULD THEY? NO, IN OUR VIEW, WE THINK THEY SHOULD KEEP HIKING. ANNMARIE: BUT WITH THE SELLOFF AND ALL THESE MARKETS TIED TO AMERICA'S GROWTH, IT SCARES THEM. ADITYA: THERE IS A MONTH LEFT UNTIL THE MEETING. LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE 20 ODD DAYS OF MARKET ACTION, AND THEN THEY CAN MAKE UP THEIR MINDS AS TO WHETHER THIS IS MEANINGFUL TIGHTENING OR A ONE-OFF. LISA: OUR SITE NUMBER OF NODES COMING FROM A NUMBER OF WALL STREET FIRMS, TALKING ABOUT HOW MUCH THE DATA CENTER BUILDOUT HAS ADDED TO GDP, HAS ADDED TO PRICE PRESSURE, ETC., AND WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DELAY TO A NUMBER OF DATA CENTERS. HOW MUCH IS THAT A HUGE PART OF THE FUNDAMENTALS STORY, AND POTENTIALLY PUTTING THIS U.S. ECONOMY MORE AT RISK? ADITYA: OUR EXPECTATION IS, BY THE TIME RELATION GOES THROUGH AND THEY START TO AFFECT BUSINESS INVESTMENT, IT WILL PROBABLY BE LATE2027, EARLY 2028 , SO I DO NOT THINK OUR OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTH IS IMPACTED. THAT IS REALLY WHAT THE FED'S GOT TO BASE POLICY ON. IF THEY ARE BASING POLICY ON WISHFUL THINKING INFLATION WILL COME DOWN, THEY WILL PROBABLY STAY BEHIND THE CURVE. LISA: THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF MARKET BASED ACTIVITIES THAT HAVE LEAD THE FED, OR PEOPLE TO PROJECT THE FED WOULD CUT RATES. I AM CURIOUS, FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE, HOW MUCH OIL PRICES WILL DICTATE THAT, GIVEN THE FACT THAT SEEMS TO BE FUELING A LOT OF? -- A LOT OF THE MARKET MOVE? ADITYA: OIL PRICES PLAY A ROLE BUT THAT IS NOT THE ONLY THING. -- OF THE REST OF CORE PCE IS THE PASTOR OF TARIFFS. THE PROBLEM IS COME ON THE ONE HAND, YOU HAVE BIG OVERSHOOT IN UNDERLYING INFLATION. BUT ON TOP OF THAT, IRAN IS GOING TO GET WORSE IN TERMS OF THE PASS-THROUGH. IN TERMS OF THE DIESEL PASS-THROUGH. THAT COULD GET WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER. IT COULD BE A FEW MORE MONTHS OF THAT PLAYING OUT. I DON'T THINK WE ARE GETTING BACK TO TARGET ANY TIME SOON. THE OTHER PROBLEM IS WE HAVE BEEN ABOVE TARGET FOR SO LONG. THREE MONTHS? ONE WITH THE LAST TIME WE HAVE THREE MONTHS OF 2% ANNUALIZED CORE PCE? DECEMBER 2020. THAT WAS SO LONG AGO, I HAD A FULL HEAD OF HAIR BACK THAT. [LAUGHTER] NOT REALLY. BUT THE POINT IS THAT WAS VERY LONG AGO, AND CAN WE KEEP KIDDING OURSELVES THERE IS SOME REASON OR OTHER WE WILL GET BACK TO TARGET, OR IS IT TIME FOR THE FED TO TAKE ACTION? I THINK IT IS TIME FOR THE FED TO TAKE ACTION. ANNMARIE: JOHN WILLIAMS SPOKE AT THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND SAYING THAT ABSOLUTELY INFLATION IS WAY TOO HIGH. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS WAS AN INDIVIDUAL FORECASTING WE WOULD ONLY NEED ONE HIKE. DO YOU THINK THEY ARE PLANNING TO GO THAT EXTRA MILE AND MAKE IT POTENTIALLY A BIT PAINFUL? ADITYA: THE RISK AS THEY WON'T AND THEY WILL IMPLICITLY ACCEPT ELEVATED INFLATION. WILLIAMS IS INTERESTING BECAUSE HE LED THE WAY IN GETTING THAT OCTOBER HIKE PRICED OUT. HE HAS BEEN VERY DOVISH FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE. IT SEEMS HIS FRAMEWORK IS VERY MUCH DICTATED BY THE IDEA THAT OUR -- R-STAR IS STILL VERY LOW CARE THE REST OF THE COMMITTEE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THAT. THERE ARE TWO REASONS TO BE HIKING. ONE IS THE INFLATION WE TALKED ABOUT EARLIER. THE SECOND IS THAT, IF R-STAR IS CLIMBING AND YOU'RE NOT HIKING TO ME THAT INCREASE IN THE NEUTRAL RATE, THEN YOU ARE IMPLICITLY USING RATES WHICH DOES NOT. FEEL APPROPRIATE NOW LISA: ADITYA BHAVE,. . THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US ADITYA BHAVE OF BANK OF AMERICA. WE ARE REALLY TRYING TO UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY. THAT IS A KEY QUESTION TO UNDERSTAND HOW MUCH IT COULD HAVE LEGS. THIS MORNING, IT SEEMS LIKE PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO REVERSE IT A BIT ON THE MARGINS. ANNMARIE: ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE SEMI CONDUCTOR NAMES. MAYBE THIS IS THE BY THE DIP MOMENT. MAYBE THIS -- BUY THE DIP MOMENT. MAYBE THIS IS A DIGESTION OF THE POLITICS. FOR SOME PEOPLE, POLITICS MIGHT BE AN EASY EXCUSE. BUT BANK OF AMERICA'S MICHAEL HARTMAN SAID THIS. HE SAID THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF IT PERIOD OF DISRUPTION, AND THEY'RE HOLDING OFF ON RISK UNTIL MID-NOVEMBER. LISA: WHEN THEY THOUGHT THE FED MIGHT INDICATE IT WAS SPEAKING IN TERMS OF RATES. A LOT OF THIS DOES DEPEND ON NONFARM PAYROLLS AND THE FACTORY ARE COMING UP NEXT, PRIYA MISRA OF J.P. MORGAN DEFENDING WHY WE SHOULD BE PAYING ATTENTION TO NONFARM PAYROLLS TODAY. ADAM HODGE A BULLY PULPIT INTERNATIONAL, SAMANTHA DART OF GOLDMAN SACHS ON OIL PRICES, AND FORMER KANSAS CITY FED PRESIDENT ESTHER GEORGE. THIS IS \"BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE.\" ♪ IT'S STILL NOT A SUPERSTRONG LABOR MARKET. >> THIS BOILS DOWN TO HOW THE FED ULTIMATELY INTERPRETS THE DATA. >> BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE WITH JONATHAN P. LISA: STOCK SEEKING OUT GAINS SINCE THE WORST DAY OF THE 2020 PANDEMIC. YESTERDAY'S CARNAGE LEFT THE U.S. SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX 20% LOWER THAN ITS JUNE HEART RENDERING TODAY'S JOBS REPORT ALMOST AN AFTERTHOUGHT IN A RAPIDLY CHANGING MARKET AS PEOPLE ASSESS THE FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP. ANNMARIE: THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CATALYST FOR THE MARKET. IN THIS INFORMATION RICH MOMENT FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE, THIS IS IMPORTANT, THE FIRST OUT OF THE TWO THEY WILL GET BEFORE THE DECEMBER MEETING. YESTERDAY WE SAW INDIVIDUALS START TO PRICE OUT. WE START TO LESSON A LITTLE BIT. THAT POTENTIALLY DECEMBER WILL BE A HIKE. HOW MUCH IS GOING ON WITH FINANCIAL MARKETS DOING THE JOB FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE? LISA: AND IF YOU GET A RALLY INTO BOND HOW MUCH I THOUGHT TAKEN BACK? TO YOUR YIELDS CLOSE TO 4.5%. THE EXPECTATION IS A 69% CHANCE OF A FED RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER. IT WAS 86% A FEW DAYS AGO. HOW MUCH DOES THIS TAKE THE HEAT FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE AS IT TALKS ABOUT INFLATIONARY PRESSURES? JOHN WILLIAMS OVERNIGHT SOUNDED A BIT MORE HAWKISH. ANNMARIE: THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK SAYING ABSOLUTELY TOO HIGH IN TERMS OF INFLATION. THIS INDIVIDUAL SAID IT WILL BE ONE MORE AND DONE BEFORE 2027. HE SAID THIS IS AN IMPORTANT MOMENT TO GATHER MORE INFORMATION. THAT IS WHY THE PAYROLL NUMBER TODAY AS IMPORTANT AS WELL AS THE FUTURE CPI AND JOBS REPORT. LISA: IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT THE TECHNICAL UNDERPINNINGS OF WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY, THE BIGGEST SELLOFF GOING BACK TO 2020 OPENING QUESTIONS ABOUT BALANCE SHEETS AND HEDGE FUNDS UNWINDING. WE SAW WHAT ARE THE BIGGEST UNWINDS OF STOCKPICKING GOING BACK MORE THAN A DECADE. THERE WAS A REAL QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH IS LEFT BEHIND. HOW MUCH CONVICTION CAN YOU HAVE IN A TIME WHERE THERE IS POTENTIALLY MORE KNIFE TO FALL, YOU JUST DON'T KNOW WHAT IS BEHIND IT? ANNMARIE: WHILE ELECTION ROUTES -- RESULTS WERE COMING IN, MARKET FUTURES WERE HIGHER. THIS HAPPENED AFTER THE ELECTIONS. MAYBE INDIVIDUALS ARE DIGESTING LOOKING AT ALL OF THE BALLOT MEASURES AND JURISDICTIONS. SEEING OHIO, GEORGIA, AND TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOT OF PEOPLE DO NOT THINK THE AI CYCLE IS OVER. WHAT GIVES IN TERMS OF YESTERDAY'S MASSIVE SELLOFF? IT WAS NOT A HICCUP. IT WAS A MASSIVE SELLOFF. LISA: RIGHT NOW YOU ARE SEEING GREEN, A BID INTO TECH NAMES. SEMIS FLYING HIGH. S&P FUTURES UP .2%. NASDAQ FUTURES UP 1.5%. IN TWO BASIS POINT DECREASE ON THE FRONT END, 48%, SIMILAR AT THE BACKEND, ALMOST 5.3%. THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THE DOLLAR CONTINUES TO BE A HAVEN GIVEN THE FACT IT IS INTIMATELY TIED TO THE AI STORY THIS MORNING. THE HAVEN STATUS STICKS ON THE MARGINS, GIVING BACK A LITTLE BIT OF THE LOSSES YESTERDAY. ONE 1175 VERSUS THE EURO, THE EURO LOSING TO THE DOLLAR. COMING UP, PRIYA MISRA OF J.P. MORGAN, ADAM HARDAGE OF BULLY PULPIT AND FORMER KANSAS CITY FED PRESIDENT ESTHER GEORGE. STOCKS ARE REBOUNDING FOLLOWING THE WORST DAY ON PERCENT LEVEL SINCE 2000 SIX. AT THE SUN OFFICE CAUSING A FLIGHT TO SAFETY, SENDING INVESTORS TO U.S. BONDS. PRIYA WRITING \"TREASURIES ARE WORKING AS A HEDGE AGAINST RISK ASSETS. WE CONTINUE TO OWN SOME DURATION .\" LET'S MAKE NON-FOREIGN PAYROLLS GREAT AGAIN. WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO PAY ATTENTION AT A TIME WHEN IT SEEMS LIKE PEOPLE ARE SELLING FIRST AND ASKING QUESTIONS LATER? PRITAYA: IS THE LABOR MARKET A SOURCE OF INFLATION? THAT IS THE KEY QUESTION. HOW DEPENDENT IS THE ENTIRE ECONOMY ON AI? THAT'S WHAT WE WILL WATCH IN THE LABOR REPORT. THE HEADLINE NUMBER IS WHAT IT IS. IS IT ALL DATA CENTER CONSTRUCTION? IF THE AIR IS COMING OUT OF THE AI TRADE IT CAN MEAN GROWTH IS MUCH WEAKER. THAT IS WHAT THE MARKET WILL BE WATCHING. WHAT HAPPENS WITH INFLATION? WAGES HAVE BEEN DECELERATING NOW FOR MANY MONTHS. IN OUR VIEW, THE LABOR MARKET IS NOT A SOURCE OF INFLATION. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY A MIDCYCLE ADJUSTMENT, A COUPLE HIKES, THAT IS IT. IF WAGES ARE PICKING UP WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A LOT MORE HIKES AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE AI TRADE IS GETTING BUMPY. FUNDAMENTALLY, IS THE LABOR MARKET STRONG? IS IT OVERHEATING? THAT IS THE QUESTION WE WILL BE WATCHING. >> HAS THE BALANCE OF RISK FOR TODAY'S MOVE CHANGED BECAUSE OF THE RALLY AT THE FRONT OF THE YIELD CURVE? PEOPLE HAVE TAKEN OUT SO MANY EXPECTATIONS FOR A FED RATE HIKE. COULD ANYTHING HARDER THAN EXPECTED LEAD TO A DISPROPORTIONATE SET IN BONDS? PRIYA: IT COULD BE A LITTLE ASYMMETRIC. THE FRONT END COULD SET OFF MORE AND WE CAN PRICE IN ANOTHER HIKE. LONG AND WE ARE STILL AT 45. THE MARKETS RALLIED FROM THE 436 LEVEL. THE TREND IS TO BE SHORT DURATION. PEOPLE LOOK AT THE DEFICIT AND AI SUPPLY. OVER THE LAST WEEK WE HAD 70 BILLION OF ISSUANCE COMING. PEOPLE LOOK AT THE ISSUE WHEN SENSEI -- ISSUANCE AND SAY RATES SHOULD BE A LOT HIGHER. I THINK THE LONG END IS STILL BALANCED. THAT IS STILL WHERE WE LIKE GOING. LISA: WHEN IT COMES TO THE POLITICS IT IS BASICALLY GRIDLOCK IN WASHINGTON AND THAT MEANS MORE SPENDING. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR SHIELDS? PRIYA: A SHUT IS POTENTIALLY ONE MONTH AWAY. WE SAW HOW LONG THE LAST SHUTDOWN LASTED. THERE IS THE RECONCILIATION BILL, THE DEBT CEILING. HOW MUCH MORE ARE WE GETTING PAID TO EXTENDED DURATION? IN OUR VIEW, INCREASED SPENDING IS IN THE PRICE. GRIDLOCK, MR. VITO, THAT WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET SOME BIG SPENDING PLAN. ANNMARIE: STEVE MIRON WOULD TALK -- WAS TALKING ABOUT THAT YESTERDAY. WHAT WOULD THAT MEAN? PRIYA: LOWER INFLATION TRADE GOODS INFLATION IS HIGHER BECAUSE OF TARIFFS. IT REDUCES THE URGENCY FOR THE FED TO HIKE. THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PARTS HERE. DO WE TAX AI IN SOME FORM? POLITICAL RISK IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PRICE. IT'S OFTEN BINARY. WE HAVE TO WATCH WHAT WILL COME OUT ON THE AI REGULATION AND TAXATION FRONT. IF LOCAL COMMUNITIES ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT MORE MONEY COMING IN MAY THAT MAKES AI DATA CENTERS MORE PALATABLE. ON THE DEFICIT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR POLICY RISK. I AM NOT SURE THAT THE DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS MEANS A LOT MORE SPENDING AND HIGHER RATES. LISA: DETECT TRAIT HAD ALREADY TAKEN A LEAD LOWER AFTER YESTERDAY'S ABSOLUTE DRUBBING. THAT WAS AN INDICATION LABOR MARKETS HAD PUSHED BACK AT CONSTRAINT IS THE ABILITY OF SOME TYPES OF COMPANIES TO BORROW. WE HAVE SEEN 70 BILLION DARK -- DOLLARS OF DEBT ISSUANCE. YESTERDAY, AMID ALL THE SELLING. HOW REAL ARE THE CONSTRAINTS COMING FROM CREDIT MARKETS AND HOW MUCH HAS BEEN OVERBLOWN? PRIYA: THE CREDIT MARKETS HAVE BEEN VERY DISCERNING. LOOK AT THE $70 BILLION OF ISSUANCE. THESE ARE ALL HIGH-QUALITY HYPER SKATERS. THEY HAVE FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY. SOME OF THEM HAVE ISSUED EQUITY. THEIR LEVERAGED RATIOS ARE NOT HIGH. THE MARKET IS WIDE OPEN FOR THOSE COMPANIES. NEW ISSUANCE CONCESSION IS 15 BASIS POINTS. OF THE BOND MARKET IS CHARGING. OF THE MARKET IS OPEN. OTHERWISE, IF YOU ARE CAPITAL CONSTRAINED AND YOU ARE TRYING TO ACCESS THE BOND MARKET, IT'S NOT THERE FOR YOU. IN SOME CASES I WILL SAY IT'S NOT THERE AT ANY PRICE. THERE ARE CAPITAL CONSTRAINED SPIRIT OF THE FACT RATES ARE WHERE THEY ARE, THERE IS SOME AI PRICED INTO THE TREASURY MARKET. IT IS TAKING COST OF CAPITAL'S FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AI ECOSYSTEM AT NONPROFITABLE LEVELS. THAT IS WHAT THE BOND MARKET IS DOING. IT IS TIGHTENING CONDITIONS FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AI ECOSYSTEM AND IT IS WIDE OPEN FOR OTHERS. LISA: I AM CURIOUS ABOUT COMPANIES THAT CANNOT GET ACCESS TO FUNDING FOR ANY REASON. SOME NEO-CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR MIGHT BE STRUGGLING RIGHT NOW. CAN THE REST OF THE CREDIT UNIVERSE WITH STAND OF THE BANKRUPTCY OR TRUE INSOLVENCY, A TRUE WASHOUT, OF SOME OF THESE NAMES THAT HAVE ALREADY BORROWED MILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN DEBT? PRIYA: WE STRUGGLE WITH THAT. SOMETIMES, YOU SELL WHAT YOU CAN, NOT WHAT YOU MAY WANT TO. THERE WAS A LITTLE BIT OF THAT, I WONDER, YESTERDAY. IN THE CREDIT MARKET, IF THERE IS BANKRUPTCY IN ONE PART, MAYBE YOU CAN SELL OTHER STUFF. THERE IS THE KNEE-JERK UNWIND THAT CAN ABSOLUTELY IMPACT TO THE REST OF THE CREDIT SPECTRUM. WHEN I TAKE A STEP BACK, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MONEY COMING INTO CREDIT. THE CREDIT INDEX YESTERDAY IS WHY THE STOCKS WERE DOWN 4%, 5% FOR THE CREDIT INDEX WAS WIDER BY FIVE BASIS POINTS. THAT SHOWS RESILIENCE IN THE CORPORATE SECTOR. BALANCE SHEETS LOOK HEALTHY EVEN IN HYPER SKATERS NAMES. THE DATA CENTERS THAT EXIST, MORE VALUE WAS THERE A THEY HAVE PERMITTING. THEY HAVE POWER. -- THE VALUE WAS THERE. THEY HAVE PERMITTING. THEY HAVE POWER. IF YOU DO GET BANKRUPTCIES IN CERTAIN PARTS OF THE CREDIT MARKET. MOST OF THE CREDIT MARKET, THE STUFF YOU WANT YOUR BOND PORTFOLIO MANAGER ON WILL BE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR US. COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS AND EARNINGS LOOK STRONG. WE LIKE CREDIT RISK. YOU SHOULD HEDGE SOME OF THAT BECAUSE IN A GROWTH SLOWDOWN EQUITIES WILL BE DOWN AND CREDIT WILL WIDEN. ANNMARIE: DO YOU THINK THE GROWTH SLOWDOWN IS ON THE TABLE MORE THAN A MONTH AGO? PRIYA: I DO, BECAUSE SO MUCH OF THE ECONOMY IS LEVERAGED TO THE AI TRADE. WE HAVE SEEN IT BROUGHT IT OUT. CAPEX IS DRIVING GDP. I THINK THIS IS THE TRILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. IS THIS THE START OF THE AI TRADE UNRAVELING OR HEALTHY CONSOLIDATION? I DON'T THINK ANYBODY KNOWS. BUT THE SLOWING DOWN WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON INFLATION, ON GROWTH. THE MARKET STAYS WHERE IT IS BECAUSE AI IS NOT A BIG PART OF JOB GROWTH. BUT INFLATION CAN DECELERATE. GROWTH CAN DECELERATE. TO THE RIGHT MARKET IS ABSOLUTELY NOT PRICED FOR IT. THAT IS WHY I THINK OWNING DURATION MAKES SENSE HERE. OVER THE LAST MONTH, YOU HAVE HAD DAYS WHEN EQUITIES HAVE STRUGGLED, PARTICULARLY, THE AI SECTOR, THE ROTATION TRADE. TREASURIES HAVE WORKED ALL THOSE DAYS AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. TREASURIES AS A SAFE HAVEN IS BACK. WE HAVE TALKED A LOT ABOUT HOW THAT IS GONE. THERE IS ONE PLACE TO HIDE, THAT IS TREASURIES. LISA: LET'S GET YOU MORE THIS MORNING. VONNIE: ING LOOKING TO SELL ROUGHLY $500 MILLION OF DATA CENTER LOANS. SOURCES TELL US THE RARE AUCTION INCLUDES A LOAN BACKING OPENAI, SOFTBANK, AND ORACLE. THE DEMOCRATS ARE COMING FOR SILICON VALLEY. HOUSE LAWMAKERS ARE TARGETING APPLE, META, AND ELON MUSK FOR CONGRESSIONAL INVESTIGATIONS FOCUSING ON ISSUES LIKE APPLE'S HOSTING OF TRACKING APPS USED BY ICE AND META DEMANDS FOR NDA'S RELATED TO DATA CENTER DEVELOPMENTS. AN 1 MILLION SHIPMENT OF NVIDIA HARDWARE DISAPPEARING. A SIX PILOT SHIPMENT BOUND FOR FORT WORTH, TEXAS HAS BEEN STOLEN. NO ARRESTS HAVE YET BEEN MADE. THE FBI WARNING CARGO THEFT SCHEMES ARE GOING -- GROWING INCREASINGLY SOPHISTICATED. LISA: I'D WATCH THAT MOVIE. INTERESTING. I WANT TO KNOW WHERE THEY ARE. ANNMARIE: THAT'S A DIFFERENT KIND OF HEIST. THEY ARE EXPENSIVE, AND THERE ARE A LOT OF NATIONAL SECURITY THINGS IN PLAY AS WELL. LISA: NEXT, A SPEED BUMP FOR BIG TECH. >> WE WILL PASS REASONABLE GUARD RAILS ON AI, SPECIFICALLY, DATA CENTERS. >> IT'S NOT THAT I HATE DATA CENTERS. I HATE THE WAY THEY ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TEXAS. >> A MORATORIUM ON DATA CENTERS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WANT. LISA: ADAM HODGE OF BULLY PULPIT INTERNATIONAL JOINS US NEXT. THIS IS \"BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE.” LISA: IT IS A BIT OF A REBOUND RIGHT NOW IN TECH STOCKS THAT ARE LIFTING THE NASDAQ AFTER THE BIGGEST ONE-DAY DROP IN MARKET VALUE IN HISTORY. $2.3 TRILLION ERASED. TODAY, TRYING TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF THAT BACK. NASDAQ FUTURES UP ABOUT 1.4 PERCENT. FEWER GAINS IN THE EQUAL WEIGHT S&P, MORE BROADLY, ABOUT 0.2%. THE REAL BOUND IN SEMI NAMES, ALL OF THEM FLYING, TRYING TO TAKE BACK MASSIVE LOSSES YESTERDAY. NVIDIA DOWN YESTERDAY SOME 9% BY THE END OF THE TRADING DAY. NOW A REBOUND OF ABOUT 4%. AMD UP ABOUT 7.6 PERCENT IN PREMARKET TRADING. BROADCOM INFLECTING A HIGHER 4.5%. HOW MUCH IS IT FUNDAMENTALS OR ENTIRELY TECHNICAL? ANNMARIE: AND THE PRESIDENT WEIGHING IN AND SAYING IT MAY BE THE POLITICS OF DATA CENTERS. HE SAYS HE WANTS TO WORK WITH MANY OF THE STATES WHO WOULD BE RICH WITH DATA CENTERS. MAYBE AN OLIVE BRANCH. LISA: AND WILL THEY TAKE IT. UNDER SURVEILLANCE THIS MORNING, A SPEED BUMP FOR BIG TECH. >> WE WILL PASS LEGISLATION THAT LEADS TO MORE GUARDRAILS ON AI, SPECIFICALLY DATA CENTERS. >> IT IS NOT THAT I HATE DATA CENTERS, I HATE THE WAY THEY ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TEXAS. >> A MORATORIUM ON DATA CENTERS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WANT. LISA: DEMOCRATS WASTING NO TIME AFTER THE MIDTERM SWEEP TO TARGET BIG TECH AS AMERICANS OVERWHELMINGLY VOTED AGAINST DATA CENTER DEVELOPMENT. BLOOMBERG'S TYLER KENDALL JOINS US NOW. TYLER: NEW THIS MORNING, PRESIDENT TRUMP DEFENDING AGAINST WHAT HE IS BEING IS ADDED PRESSURE AGAINST THE AI BUILDOUT. YOU SAW THIS POST ON TRUTH SOCIAL SAYING THAT ONLY FOOLISH LEADERSHIP WILL SAY NO TO THE RICHES THEY BRING TO THE WHITE HOUSE IS OFTEN TOUTED JOB GROWTH AND ADDED TAX REVENUE AS REASONS WHY COMMUNITIES SHOULD EMBRACE THEM, THOUGH THAT SHOULD -- HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH FOR VOTERS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE. NEWLY ELECTED GOVERNORS IN PLACES LIKE OHIO, MICHIGAN, GEORGIA, AND TEXAS, WHO CAMPAIGNED ON REINING IN DEVELOPMENT, THESE ARE PLACES WHERE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN BOOMING. 40% DATA CENTER CAPACITY IS CURRENTLY IN STATES THAT HAVE A NEW GOVERNOR-ELECT SEEKING TO EITHER STOP OR PAUSE CONSTRUCTION ALTOGETHER, ACCORDING TO MARKET INTELLIGENCE FIRM CLEANVIEW. DIFFERENT GOVERNORS ARE TAKING DIFFERENT APPROACHES. NEWLY ELECTED GOVERNORS IN IOWA AND NEVADA SEEKING TO EXEMPT DATA CENTERS FROM SOME BUSINESS TAX BREAKS, SOMETHING THAT MIRRORS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ON CAPITOL HILL. THEN THE GOVERNOR-ELECT IN FLORIDA SAYING HE WILL HOLD BIG TECH ACCOUNTABLE TO GENERATE THEIR OWN ELECTRICITY. ONE MORE STATISTIC, BUT THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT. ON ELECTION DAY, WE SAW 47 BALLOT INITIATIVES RELATED TO DATA CENTERS. ONE HAS NOT BEEN DECIDED YET. ONE WOULD ALLOW CONSTRUCTION TO GO THROUGH. BUT 45 PASSED THAT WE SEEK TO RESTRICT IT. LISA: BLOOMBERG'S TYLER KENDALL. WHICH WAS THE TOWN? ANNMARIE: NORTH DAKOTA CARE 1400 -- 400 SOMETHING PEOPLE VOTED FOR IT. LISA: SOME PLACES THAT WILL WELCOME IT. JOINING US NOW IS ADAM HODGE OF BULLY PULPIT INTERNATIONAL. DO YOU THINK DEMOCRATS ARE HAPPY WITH THE MESSAGING NOW, AT LEAST HOW IT IS BEING TAKEN BY MARKETS? ADAM: I THINK WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE REALIZING IS THEY HAVE AN OVERWHELMING MANDATE TO ADDRESS THE AFFORDABILITY CONCERNS THEY HEARD FROM VOTERS LOUDLY IN THE LAST ELECTION. THE KEY THING TO REMEMBER IN POLITICS, IF YOU HAVE A BIT OF HUBRIS, THAT IS OFTEN A WAY TO MISREAD YOUR MANDATE. SOME OF THAT IS WHY YOU SAW THE PRESIDENT TAKE SOME ACTIONS IN WASHINGTON THAT BETRAYED THE PROMISES HE MADE IT TO THE VOTERS. WHEN YOU LOOK AHEAD TO JANUARY, WHEN DEMOCRATS TAKE CONTROL OF THE HOUSE AND SENATE COME I THINK THEY WILL TRY TO STAY LASER FOCUSED ON AFFORDABILITY. I HOPE THEY DO, BECAUSE THAT IS THEIR CLEAREST PATH TO MAINTAIN THE TRUST. VOTERS ARE CLEAR. THEY WANT ACTION GET AT A TIME WHEN YOU CAN GET ANYTHING DELIVERED IN FIVE MINUTES, QUICKLY. THAT WILL BE THE REAL TEST. CAN YOU ACTUALLY PUT THE POLICIES AND GET THEM ON THE TABLE, THAT PEOPLE SEE THE RESULTS OF THE ELECTION THEY JUST VOTED FOR? ANNMARIE: WHEN IT COMES TO AFFORDABILITY, GROWTH IS A BIG PART OF THAT. OUR GROWTH COMES DOWN TO THIS AR TRADE. YOU SEE STATES LIKE OHIO, GEORGIA, TEXAS -- TYLER WAS TALKING ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON IN FLORIDA WITH THE NEW GOVERNOR-ELECT IN TERMS OF MAKING SURE THESETECH COMPANIES PAY FOR ELECTRICITY -- YOU SEE THERE WILL BE A MORE PRAGMATIC APPROACH WHEN IT COMES TO DATA CENTERS? OR ARE SOME OF THESE STATES WILL TAKE THE BERNIE SANDERS APPROACH OF JUST SHUTTING IT DOWN? ADAM: I THINK WHAT YOU HEARD FROM JIM ENO YESTERDAY -- GINA HINOJOSA, SHE SAID TEXAS WILL STILL BE A PRO-BUSINESS STATE, BUT TEXAS WILL HAVE A SAY IN HOW THINGS UNFOLD. THAT IS PROBABLY THE RIGHT POLITICAL ANTENNA TO HAVE THREE OF THE VOTERS HAVE NOT BEEN CLEAR. 45 OUT OF 47 REFERENDUMS. THAT IS NOT JUST A DEMOCRATIC THING HERE THAT IS A NATIONAL MOVEMENT OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE VOTING NUMBER MAKING CLEAR TO THEIR MEMBERS, THE REPRESENTATIVES, WE WANT YOU TO TAKE ACTION ON THIS ISSUE. WE ARE GOING TO BE TELLING OUR CLIENTS AND TELLING PEOPLE ENGAGED ON THE ISSUE YOU HAVE TO CONVEY THE BENEFITS TO THE PUBLIC. YOU HAVE TO CONVEY WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS, HOW THEY ARE GOING TO BENEFIT. THIS IS SOMETHING WE TALKED ABOUT IN SEPTEMBER, WHEN THE BACKLASH TO THIS ISSUE IS NOWHERE NEAR THE GAIL IT IS TODAY. THE PEOPLE WHO CAN FIND A WAY TO BRIDGE THAT DIVIDE WILL BE THE ONES WHO ACTUALLY SUCCEED IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO YEARS. ANNMARIE: DO YOU THINK THESE STATES WILL BE WILLING TO WORK ON THE WAREHOUSE WITH IT? THE PRESIDENT JUST TRUTHING HOW HE IS 100% IN FAVOR OF AI AND WILL BE WORKING WITH THE STATES THAT WANT TO BE \"RICH\" WITH IT. ADAM: IT IS ONE THING FOR THE PRESIDENT TO SAY THAT TODAY. WE COULD HAVE A TOTALLY DIFFERENT TRUTH IN 15 MINUTES, AS YOU KNOW BETTER THAN ANYBODY. I THINK, WHEN DEMOCRATS ARE SMART, THEY WILL LOOK TO FIND WAYS TO WORK WITH THE PRESIDENT. WE CAN'T MISREAD THE MANDATE. WE CAN'T MISREAD THE SENSOR IS A HUGE GROUNDSWELL OF ENTHUSIASM FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. THERE IS A PENT UP FRUSTRATION IN THE COUNTRY, AND YOU HAVE SEEN THIS CHANGE BACK AND FORTH, WHERE PEOPLE WANT THE LEADERS TO ADDRESS THEIR CONCERNS. AI AND DATA CENTERS IS JUST ONE MANIFESTATION OF A LARGER FRUSTRATION ABOUT AFFORDABILITY, RISING PRICES, HIGHER ENERGY COSTS. THAT SORT OF BACKLASH IN THE COUNTRY IS WHAT THEY WANT PEOPLE TO ADDRESS. THE LEADERS WHO GET THAT ARE THE ONES WHO WILL BUILD MORE DURABLE SUPPORT. AND I THINK THE COMPANIES THAT ARE PART OF THAT WILL BE THE ONES WHO THRIVE IN THIS NEW AREA -- ERA. LISA: ADAM HODGE OF BULLY PULPIT INTERNATIONAL, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US. ULTIMATELY, THAT IS THE REAL QUESTION. GETTING TO AFFORDABILITY AND ALL THESE OTHER ISSUES IS NOT AN EASY TASK, AND THERE ARE A LOT OF WAYS TO SLICE OF THE CAKE, AND ULTIMATELY HOW MUCH COMES DOWN TO PROHIBITIONS AND THE DRIVERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH SO FAR THIS YEAR? ANNMARIE: AND WHAT ADAM WAS TALKING ABOUT WITH YOU HINOJOSA, SHE LED WITH, \"WE ARE STILL A PRO-BUSINESS STATE.\" THEY DO NOT WANT TO DRIVE COMPANIES AWAY. BUT THEY WANT TO DO IT IN A WAY THAT THEY HEARD FROM THEIR COMMUNITIES, BECAUSE THERE WAS A HUGE BACKLASH ON AI IN BLUE AND RED STATES. IF YOU WANT TO STAY IN POWER -- LISA: AND THEY ARE IN DIFFERENT WINGS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY -- ANNMARIE: PROGRESSIVES, AOC, BERNIE SANDERS, SHUT IT DOWN. LISA: AND YOU HAVE PEOPLE SAYING WE RECOGNIZE -- ANNMARIE: WELCOME BUT MAKE THEM PAY FOR THINGS. LISA: EITHER WAY, IT WILL COST MORE, EITHER WAY, THERE WILL BE MORE ROADBLOCKS. WHICH GOES TO THE QUESTION OF WHAT PEOPLE WERE SAYING ABOUT THE HYPERSCALER RALLY AND THE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH OF THE ELECTION, WHICH WAS KIND OF A HEAD SCRATCHER, THAT ULTIMATELY MORE RESTRICTIONS WITH SAVE THEM FROM THEMSELVES IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH THEY HAVE TO SPEND. ANNMARIE: ALSO PEOPLE DOING VERBAL AND MENTAL GYMNASTICS ON HOW CAN WE MAKE SURE THIS TRADE CONTINUES? IF IT WAS A BLUE SUITE, IT WAS GOING TO BE OK BECAUSE IT WAS GOING TO SLOW IT DOWN AND BE UNHEALTHY. IF IT WAS NOT A BLUE SUITE, IT WAS GOING TO BE GREAT, BECAUSE WE SEE THE PRESIDENT SUPER BULLISH ON AI. SO NOW THERE IS RECKONING WITH IT, WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS. LISA: DAN LOEB OF THIRD POINT PUT OUT ON X, \"HUG.\" [LAUGHTER] COMING UP, SAMANTHA DART EXPECTING CRUDE TO FINISH THE YEAR ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> YESTERDAY WAS NOT A GREAT DAY. TODAY WE ARE TRYING TO TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF THAT BACK WITH SOME GAINS, PARTICULARLY, SEMICONDUCTORS LEADING THE TECH HEAVY NASDAQ HIGHER THIS MORNING IN PREMARKET TRADING UP ABOUT 1.6 PERCENT IN FUTURES. S&P FUTURES UP .3%. A BID INTO BONDS YESTERDAY AGGRESSIVE AT THE FRONT END. TODAY A REVERSAL AT THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF NON-FOREIGN PAYROLLS. TODAY IS JOB STAY. 4.5%. A THREE BASIS POINT INCREASE AT THE FRONT END. ABOUT A 70% CHANCE OF A DECEMBER RATE HIKE. 30 YEAR YIELD SAT 5.3% GOOD THREE BASIS POINT AGAIN. WHAT DO YOU SEE IN OIL IS IMPORTANT. WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE SAME MASS DECLINES OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. ESSENTIALLY MIXED. THIS LOOKS BORING. BORING SHOULD BE GOOD. YESTERDAY, A NOTE TALKED ABOUT FUNDAMENTALLY, WHAT CHANGED? >> SUPPLY AND DEMAND WAS NOTHING HAS CHANGED. I WAKE UP EVERY DAY AND SEE SAUDI ARABIA MISSILES INTERCEPTED FROM THEIR WHO SEES, IRG TANKERS GO INTO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. EVERYTHING THAT HAS CHANGED IS THE RHETORIC. BASICALLY SAYING THE WAR IN IRAN IS WHY WE GOT THIS ABSOLUTE SHELLACKING AT THE POLLS. MORE PRESSURE ON THE PRESIDENT TO DO SOMETHING WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEFENSE SECTOR. THE PRESIDENT IS SEEING ALL THIS. MAYBE PEOPLE THINK HE WILL BE MORE RESTRAINED WHEN IT COMES TO CONFLICT. I SEE PEOPLE SAYING THIS IS NOT ALTERING OUR VIEW. THE PRESIDENT WILL ESCALATE WHEN IT COMES TO THE CONFLICT. LISA: WHAT DOES THAT LOOK LIKE AT A TIME WHEN YOU HAVE TWO INTRACTABLE PARTIES? LET'S HEAD TO ISABEL LEE. ISABELLE: AMD HIGHER BY 8%. THURSDAY'S SELLOFF HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH AMD FUNDAMENTALS. IT WAS ABOUT INVESTORS RECALIBRATING WHAT A DEMOCRATIC LED CONGRESS WOULD MEAN FOR THE AI TRADE POWER AND MUCH OF THE MARKET GROWTH. WEDNESDAY WE SAW A RALLY AND THURSDAY WE SAW SELLOFF. WE WILL SEE WHAT FRIDAY HALTS. INVESTOR SHARES IN THE RED, HIGHER BY 6%. THE COMPANY REPORTED RESULTS THAT BEAT ESTIMATES. THE POLITICAL OVERHANG IS WEIGHING ON THE STOCK THIS WEDNESDAY. INVESTORS ARE FOCUSING ON THE BEACH THEY SAW THIS MORNING. MODERNA REPORTING EARNINGS WITH SHARES HIGHER BY NEARLY 4%. OF THE COMPANY BOOSTED REVENUE GROWTH GUIDANCE FOR THE YEAR. WE KNOW THAT MODERNA IS A COVID VACCINE MAKER. THEY ARE TRYING TO MAKE A IN ROADS IN OTHER PARTS. THEY HAVE NEW SOURCES OF GROWTH AND ONE IS CANCER DRUG DEVELOPMENT. LISA: I APPRECIATE THAT. MORE INVESTORS ARE PUSHING BACK AGAINST ANTHROPIC'S LOFTY .5 TRILLION VALUATION TARGET. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL IS REPORTING THREE TOP STAKEHOLDERS SAY THE ESTIMATES NEED TO COME DOWN INCLUDING ONE ADDING IT COULD BE CLOSER TO TRILLION. THE OFFICIALS FROM THE COMPANY ARE MEETING IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO DISCUSS THIS, REPORTEDLY. CROWDED HEDGE FUND TRADES FACING A SWIFT UNWIND. WHILE I CAPITAL RETURNING CASH FOLLOWING ITS WORST MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SINCE MARCH 2020. SNAPPING A 16 MONTH WINNING STREAK AS A POPULAR TRADE -- AS POPULAR TRADES LOSE STEAM. THERE HAVE BEEN MANY STORIES ABOUT HOW MUCH FUNDS ARE LIQUIDATING. I WAS STRUCK BY THE MORGAN STANLEY REPORT THAT SHOWS OCTOBER MARKS THE LARGEST UNWINDING OF HEDGE FUNDS IN A DECADE. A LOT OF IT HAPPENED BEFORE THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. THIS WAS THE CATALYST FOR IT TO ACTUALLY, COMPLETELY UNWIND. NOW YOU ARE SEEING A BID BACK INTO A LOT OF THESE. MAYBE IT DOES NOT SPELL THE END OF THE AI TRADE, BUT AS WE HAVE HEARD FROM A LOT OF PEOPLE, IT IS SLOWING DOWN. LISA: HUG YOUR SEMI'S CEO. KEY HOUSE REPUBLICANS ASKING NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG TO ATTEND A CLOSED-DOOR BRIEFING OVER HIS TIES TO ANALOGY A CHINESE SPY, QUESTIONING HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE MEGA SPEED ANNMARIE: INTERNATIONAL CEO. I THINK THE LAWMAKERS WANT HIM TO COME IN SO THEY CAN ASK HIM ABOUT PEOPLE WHO HAVE HUGGED HIM WHEN IT COMES TO NATIONAL SECURITY IN CHINA. HE IS ONE OF MANY WHO WILL GET A SUBPOENA. IN THE WASHINGTON POST THIS MORNING WROTE ABOUT HOW THE HOUSE IS PREPARING TO HAVE THESE INVESTIGATIONS AND HAVE A HEARING, A DISCUSSION, WITH THE LIKES OF META, TESLA, AND APPLE. IF YOU WERE ANYWHERE CLOSE IN THE ADMINISTRATION, DOING DEALS, PREPARE. LISA: HOW MUCH WILL THAT CONSTRAIN VALUATION? HOW MUCH POTENTIAL CONSTRAINT COULD BE ON PRODUCTION THAT COULD SPEAK TO SOMETHING WE SAW YESTERDAY? LISA: --ANNMARIE: I WOULD LOVE THIS WILL BE EXPENSIVE. LISA: INVESTORS REASSESS -- CRUDE NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS. THE TEAM AT GOLDMAN SACHS PROJECTING BRENT AT 05 PER BARREL BY THE END OF THE YEAR. SAYING WE ARE RAISING THE PRICE FORECAST BECAUSE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSIDE SUPPLY RISKS ARE LIKELY TO SUSTAIN A LARGE NEAR-TERM RISK PREMIUM. SAMANTHA, HOW MUCH DOES THIS FEEL LIKE THROWING A DART AT THE WALL BECAUSE SENTIMENT SEEMS TO BE MOVING ON HEADLINES MORE THAN WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT ON THE GROUND? SAMANTHA: YOU ARE HITTING ON THE KEY POINT. IF YOU LOOK AT THE RALLY WE HAD SEEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE PAST MONTH AND THE REMARKABLE SELLOFF SO FAR THIS WEEK, IT'S ALL RISK PREMIUM. WHEN WE LOOK AT OUR ESTIMATED FAIR VALUE FOR BRENT, IT IS AROUND $90 PER BARREL. THIS IS WHAT WE CAN SEE IN INVENTORY. GLOBAL, VISIBLE INVENTORIES OF CRUDE HAVE BEEN RATHER FLAT OVER THE COURSE OF SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER. THINGS ARE CHANGING THAT MONTH. FLOWS FROM THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ARE PRETTY DECENT. THE NUMBER OF ATTACKS, VERY HIGH IN EARLY OCTOBER, OVER THE PAST WEEK, HAS PICKED UP AGAIN. IT IS MORE ABOUT HOW THE SENTIMENT HAS CHANGED. IT CAN CHANGE IT AGAIN IF YOU HAVE THE NUMBER OF ATTACKS AND THE THREAT, NOT JUST TO THE FLOW. OF THE RISK IS WHEN ESCALATION LEADS TO THE RISK OF INFRASTRUCTURE BEING HIT. THIS CAN REFLECTED IN HIGHER PRICES. LISA: IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT CRUDE. IT IS DISTILLATE, THE PRICE OF DIESEL. PART OF IT IS THE INSURANCE COST, TO HAVE THIS TRANSPORTED ON A SHIP ANYWHERE. FREEDOM OF THE SEAS HAS BEEN FUNDAMENTALLY CHALLENGED. HOW DIFFICULT WOULD IT BE TO RIGHT SIZE AT PARTICULAR MARKET? SAMANTHA: VERY DIFFICULT. IT WILL TAKE TIME. BALANCE. YOU HAVE THE REFINERIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND RUSSIA. REFINED PRODUCTS, STOCKS AND INVENTORIES, ARE MUCH LOWER THAN CRUDE INVENTORIES NOW. AND A LOT OF TAKERS FROM -- TANKERS FROM PRODUCTS ARE BEING USED TO MOVE CRUDE. YOUR SHIPPING IS MORE AND MORE EXPENSIVE AS WELL. WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE INSURANCE PREMIUM, HOW THE FREIGHT MARKET IS TIGHT, PART OF THAT IS BECAUSE THE SITUATION IN THE GULF IS STILL A LITTLE TENSE BUT YOU HAVE TO SHUTTLE CRUDE BACK AND FORTH, BACK AND FORTH. THAT IS TYING UP A LOT OF SHIPS, JUST MOVING STUFF AROUND. YOU THINK, HOW LONG DO I NEED TO KEEP DOING THAT? AS LONG AS YOU KEEP DOING THAT, YOUR FREIGHT WILL BE TIGHT. IT WILL BE EXPENSIVE. ANNMARIE: THE MARKET IS TRADING OFF WASHINGTON. DOES THAT MATCH SUPPLY AND DEMAND? SAMANTHA: THE MARKET IS TRYING TO EXTRAPOLATE FROM THOSE HEADLINES INTO THE PROBABILITY OF FLOW BEING IMPACTED AND INFRASTRUCTURE BEING IMPACTED. WHETHER THAT IS EXACERBATED OR NOT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. ANNMARIE: HOW DIFFICULT WILL THIS WINTER MONTHS BEFORE THE LIKES OF EUROPE AND ASIA? SAMANTHA: THEN THE QUESTION SHIFTS MORE TO NATURAL GAS THAN CRUDE. WE LOOK AT THE IMPACT OF A COLD WINTER ON DIESEL. IT IS MUCH SMALLER THAN FOR NATURAL GAS. YOU THINK ABOUT EUROPEAN HEATING, EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY PRICES. THEY ARE QUITE VULNERABLE. THE PICTURE ON LNG SUPPLY OUT OF THE GULF IS NOT AS NICE AS THE PICTURE FROM OIL. YOU ARE BETWEEN 30 FOR TENT -- 30% AND 40% OF NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO 90% NORMAL. THE FORCE MEASURE HAS BEEN EXTENDED. BUT WE ARE NOTICING SUPPLY CONTINUES TO ADAPT GREATER THE VOLUMES CROSSING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS SLOWLY CREEPING UP. IT IS A QUESTION. DO THEY CONTINUE TO CREEP UP DURING THE WINTER? BY THE WAY, AT THIS MOMENT, WE DON'T KNOW IF IT WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE, A COLD WINTER, OR A WARMER THAN AVERAGE WINTER. LISA: WHY IS INTO THE TARGET HIGHER? YOUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT YEAR IS $88. WE ARE AROUND $80 PRICED INTO THE FUTURES CURVE. YOU ARE TALKING BOUT 03. WE ARE AT $98. IT'S NOT THAT BIG OF A STRETCH. DO YOU THINK THE CHANCE OF ESCALATION IS NOT THERE THE SAME WAY NOW THAT IT WAS TWO WEEKS AGO? SAMANTHA: THERE IS A CASE TO BE MADE THAT GOES ALONG THOSE LINES. THE MAIN REASON OUR TARGET IS NOT HIGHER IS BECAUSE SUPPLY ADAPTATION HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY SUCCESSFUL. EVEN IN LNG, WE AREN'T SENDING AS MUCH LNG ACROSS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AS WE ARE CRUDE OIL, FAIR. BUT THE INCREASING FLOWS WE SAW IT DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, A MONTH WHERE WE HAD THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF TANKER ATTACKS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WAR, THAT IS IMPRESSIVE. IT SHOWS THE SUPPLIERS ARE FINDING A WAY OF GETTING SUPPLY ACROSS. BECAUSE SUPPLY ADAPTATION, SUPPLY IMPROVEMENT, HAS BEEN PRESENT AND GETTING BETTER AND BETTER OVER RECENT MONTHS, WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT YEAR. WE HAVE AN UNDERLYING ASSUMPTION YOUR OVERALL GULF PRODUCTION WILL NORMALIZE, AND AVERAGE, NEXT YEAR, ABOVE PREWAR LEVELS. LISA: HAS THE LEVEL OF PRICES IN OIL AT WHICH YOU START TO SEE DEMAND DESTRUCTION CHANGED AS OF THE CONFLICT GOES ON? FOR EXAMPLE, EARLY IN THE CONFLICT, PEOPLE SAID PRICES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE PEOPLE TO PULL BACK FROM SOME TRAVEL, SOME OTHER OPERATIONS. THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN. PEOPLE WERE SURPRISED. WILL THAT BE THE SAME THIS TIME? DO YOU EXPECT DEMAND DESTRUCTION AT THESE LEVELS? SAMANTHA: U.S. GASOLINE DEMAND DROPPED A LITTLE BIT. WHEN YOU LOOK AT CHINA, DEMAND DROPPED MORE. IT WAS HELPED BY FUEL SUBSTITUTION. A LOT OF FOLKS WERE SAYING, MAYBE THIS IS THE TIME TO BUY AN 8 -- AND EV. THEY DID. THEY SHARE INCREASED FROM THE MID-50'S TO THE MID 60'S. THAT SUBSTITUTION HELPED INCREASE DEMAND RESPONSE. IT DID NOT HAPPEN HERE. IT HAPPENED IN CHINA MORE THAN ANYWHERE ELSE. LISA: LET'S HEAD OVER TO VONNIE QUINN. VONNIE: THE NEW YORK TIMES REPORTING SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO IS DISMISSING REPORTS HE WAS PLANNING TO LEAVE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FOLLOWING BLOOMBERG REPORTING RUBIO MIGHT LEAVE FOLLOWING THE GOP'S CRUSHING MIDTERM LOSS. GOLDMAN SACHS PROMOTED 109 EMPLOYEES TO THE RANK OF PARTNER, THE BIGGEST ADDITION TO THE WALL STREET FIRM'S RANKS SINCE 2010. THE GROUP HAS AN AVERAGE TENURE OF 17 YEARS AND THAT MEMBERS BEING PROMOTED WORK ACROSS 21 OFFICES, THE MOST EVER REPRESENTED. NVIDIA APPROACHING APOLLO TO CREATE A NETWORK OF SMALL AI DATA CENTERS. THE SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY SPAN 20 U.S. STATES AND USE EXISTING BUILDINGS THAT BELONG TO STRUGGLE -- STRUGGLING TELECOM FIRM BRIGHT SPEED. LISA: NEXT, A COMMITMENT TO BUYING TIME. >> IT IS ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL WE BRING INFECTION -- INFLATION BACK TO THE 2% TARGET. THIS IS AN APPROPRIATE TIME TO ACCUMULATE MORE INFORMATION TO HELP US DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE STANCE IN POLICY TO MAKE SURE WE ACHIEVE TIMELY RETURN TO THE 2% TIME PLATE -- TARGET. LISA: TIMELY PRETTY THINKING ABOUT THAT WORD. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? ANNMARIE: DOES THAT MEAN THEY FEEL LIKE THEY CAN WASTE A LOT OF TIME? I'M NOT SURE. IT'S TRUE. THEY HAVE BEEN BEHIND THE CURVE MORE THAN FIVE YEARS. LISA: FORMER KANSAS CITY FED THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE. LISA: WE ARE WONDERING WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY. SOME PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO BUY AROUND THE MARGINS IN THE TECH TRADE. THE SEMI TRADE GETTING LOVE THIS MORNING. A BID. THE S&P DOWN JUST ABOUT CATCH UP -- UP 1/10 OF 1%. A BIT OF DOLLAR STRENGTH. THE EURO FALLING HALF A PERCENT VERSUS THE DOLLAR. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS UP ALMOST FOUR BASIS POINTS. 4.87%. PEOPLE TAKING BACK SOME OF THE MOVES YESTERDAY. NONFARM PAYROLLS. NARRATIVE. THE MARKET MOVES YESTERDAY ARE STILL LEAVING US WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT MARKET POSITIONING. THEY COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR FED EXPECTATIONS. ANNMARIE: A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SAYING THAT MIGHT MEAN THE FED HAS TO HOLD BACK FROM HIKING INTEREST RATES IN DECEMBER. WE SAW THAT IMMEDIATELY PRICED IN YESTERDAY MORNING. MORE THAN 80% CHANCE THE FED WAS GOING TO MOVE TO THE UPSIDE AND HIKE IN DECEMBER. IT IS STILL THERE BUT THAT HAS CALMED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND THE PRESSURE HAS EASED. LISA: WE NOW HAVE A 70% CHANCE OF A FED RATE HIKE PRICED IN THE MARKETS AFTER THE INCREDIBLE BIT IND INTO THE FRONT END OF THE CURVE. A COMMITMENT TO BUYING TIME. >> IT'S ESSENTIAL WE BRING INFLATION BACK TO OUR 2% TARGET IN A TIMELY MANNER. IT'S BEEN TOO HIGH FOR TOO LONG. THIS IS THE APPROPRIATE TIME TO ACCUMULATE MORE INFORMATION TO HELP US DETERMINE WHAT THE APPROPRIATE POLICY IS TO MAKE SURE WE ACHIEVE A TIMELY RETURN TO OUR 2% TARGET. LISA: JOHN WILLIAMS ECHOING FED CHAIR'S WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. INVESTORS TURNING TO THE OCTOBER PAYROLLS PRINT. FORMER KANSAS CITY FED PRESIDENT ESTHER GEORGE WRITING, \"IT'S A COMPONENT OF THE ACCUMULATION OF MORE INFORMATION THE FOMC IS LOOKING FOR IN ORDER TO DETERMINE THE POLICY STANCE APPROPRIATE FOR A TIMELY RETURN OF INFLATION TO 2%. \" SOMEONE SENT ME A DEFINITION OF THE WORD TIMELY. IT DID NOT HELP BECAUSE I DON'T TERMS OF HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE INFLATION TO GET DOWN TO TARGET? ESTHER: IT IS THE KEY QUESTION, ISN'T IT? EVEN THE COMMITTEE MEMBERS ARE WRESTLING WITH THIS AS A DEBATE AND DELIBERATE ON THE PATH AHEAD. IT SOUNDS LIKE THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE PATH AHEAD WILL CALL FOR HIGHER RATES. THE QUESTION IS, HOW MUCH OF THAT DOSE OF MEDICINE FULLY HAVE TO PUT OUT TO ACHIEVE THE RESULT WE WANT. TIMELY IS CRITICAL HERE IN TERMS OF JUDGING THAT. THE OTHER THING IS THE COMMITTEE EXPECTATIONS. I THINK WE ALSO INCREASINGLY HEAR THAT HOUSEHOLD EXPECTATIONS ARE SHIFTING IN A WAY THAT SUGGESTS THERE'S MORE URGENCY IN MY VIEW THAT THEY ADDRESS THIS ISSUE QUICKLY. LISA: DO YOU THINK THE SELLOFF WE SAW IN THE TECH SECTOR AND SOME OF THE BELIEF THEY WILL BE A SLOWER PACE OF DATA CENTER BUILDOUT WHICH COULD SLOW THE ECONOMY, IS THAT ENOUGH TO GIVE THE FED MORE TIME TO ACCUMULATE DATA IN A DATA-RICH PERIOD? ESTHER: IT'S POSSIBLE WHEN YOU SEE A REPRICING OF RISK LIKE YESTERDAY THAT IT COULD FEED THROUGH TO GROWTH. IT COULD BE A MESSAGE ABOUT GROWTH. THAT IS HARD FOR ME TO SEE RIGHT NOW. WE SEE SO MANY OF THE FACTORS THAT SUGGEST GROWTH IS ACTUALLY QUITE STRONG. WE HEARD THAT FROM THE FOMC COMING OUT OF THEIR MOST RECENT MEETING. WE HAVE A LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. THE ISSUE IN FRONT OF US WITH EXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY IN THE BACKGROUND, WITH MONETARY POLICY BY THE FOMC'S OWN ADMISSION NOT RESTRICTIVE SUGGEST THE INFLATION ISSUE IS THE REAL ISSUE TO BE TACKLED RIGHT NOW. ANNMARIE: DO YOU SEE ANY SOURCE OF INFLATION COMING FROM THE LABOR MARKET RIGHT NOW? ESTHER: THAT HAS BEEN ANOTHER SOURCE OF SOME COMFORT FOR THE FOMC. THEY HAVE NOT SEEN WAGES BE THE IMPETUS FOR THIS INFLATION. I THINK IT TODAY -- I THINK TODAY WATCHING HOW THE WAGE GROWTH LOOKS AND THESE NUMBERS, HOW BROAD THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS, WHAT SECTORS ARE THOSE COMING INTO, I THINK AS WE WATCH CLAIMS, AND AT LOW LEVELS WE SAW THE JOLTS REPORT THAT SUGGESTED QUITS HAD POPPED UP. LOOKING AT THAT WAGE GROWTH WILL BE AN IMPORTANT ASPECT OF THIS PARTICULAR REPORT AS INFORMATION FOR THE FOMC. ANNMARIE: DO YOU THINK THE FOMC IS LOOKING AT THE POLITICAL TIDES GIVEN MAYBE IT MEANS THE PRESIDENT MIGHT REVERSE SOME POLICY COURSES THAT HAVE BEEN INFLATIONARY? I'M THINKING OIL AND TARIFFS. ESTHER: I THINK YOU SEE SIGNALS OF THAT AND THERE ARE QUESTIONS OF THAT. WE WILL HAVE DIVIDED GOVERNMENT IN THAT SENSE. HOW POLICIES MOVE, THEY TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY. SEEING THE IMPACT SO THAT MAY REFLECT SOME ASSUMPTIONS PEOPLE ARE MAKING ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE WAR AND OTHER POLICIES THAT HAVE BEEN DEPLOYED SO FAR. I WOULD NOT EXPECT THERE WILL BE DRAMATIC SHIFTS IN GIVING DATA THAT LOOKS DEFINITIVE AS IT RELATES TO WHAT IS THE IMPACT THE GROWTH AND OUR LABOR MARKETS IN THE NEAR TERM. LISA: DO YOU THINK THIS FEDERAL RESERVE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE IDEA OF SEQUENTIAL SUPPLY-SIDE SHOCKS THAT KEEP COMING DOWN THE PIKE AND UNDERSTANDING WHETHER THIS IS THE NEW REALITY AND SOMETHING YOU NEED TO ADDRESS OR THEY CAN LOOK PAST? ESTHER: I THINK YOU HEAR A LOT ABOUT THAT AND I'M QUITE SYMPATHETIC TO THINKING ABOUT THE FACT THAT INFLATION WAS RUNNING ABOVE THEIR TARGET AHEAD OF THE MORE RECENT SUPPLY SHOCKS AROUND THE WAR IN IRAN. THAT HAS ADDED FUEL TO THIS INFLATION FIRE. THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS COMMITTEE I THINK IS CERTAINLY THEY HAVE TO DISSECT WHAT IS COMING FROM A TEMPORARY SHOCK. THE LAYERING ON IS THE REAL RISK IN ONE THEY WILL HAVE TO RESPOND TO BY USING THEIR INTEREST RATE POLICY. -- BY USING THEIR INTEREST RATE POLICY. LISA: TRADERS ARE PRICING IN JUST TWO MORE ADDITIONAL HIKES FROM THE FED AFTER PRICING IN THREE EARLIER THIS YEAR. DO YOU THINK THE MARKET HAS IT RIGHT OR THEY MIGHT BE LOWBALLING WHAT IS NECESSARY? ESTHER: I THINK THE MARKET IS TRYING TO LOOK FOR THE SAME CLUES THAT EVEN THE FOMC IS NOT UNDERSTANDING. AND ALSO UNDERSTANDING AND CHANGING FED. NEW LEADERSHIP AT THE FED, I FED THAT IS LOOKING AT DOING THINGS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM COMMUNICATION TO LOOKING AT THE DATA THAT IT RELIES ON. I THINK THE DIRECTION OF TRAVEL HERE FOR ME IS IMPORTANT TO SAY MARKETS AGREE THAT THE PATH AHEAD MAY CALL FOR HIGHER RATES. HOW MANY OF THOSE I THINK REMAINS UP FOR GRABS. I DO THINK YOU BE JUST LOOK AT THE REAL FUNDS RATE RIGHT NOW YOU WILL SEE THIS IS NOT TIED POLICY BY ANY MEANS. THERE IS -- TIGHT POLICY BY ANY MEANS. THERE IS ROOM FOR INCREASES. WE WILL ALL BE WATCHING HOW THE DATA UNFOLDS. LISA: ESTHER GEORGE, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US THIS MORNING. A QUESTION ABOUT THE FED RIGHT NOW AND A LOT OF THE DIFFERENT NOTES. MICHAEL HARTNETT IS TALKING ABOUT THE FEDERAL RESERVE. WE HEARD THIS YESTERDAY THAT A LOT OF WHETHER WE SEE A RALLY REGAIN STEAM IN EQUITIES WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE CAN SEE THE END OF THE RATE HIKING CYCLE. ANNMARIE: THAT IS POTENTIALLY WHY WE ARE SEEING THE BIDS THIS MORNING. MAYBE AFTER THIS FLAREUP THE MARKET IS DOING THE SOME OF THE WORK THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND THEY DON'T HAVE TO HIKE IN DECEMBER. THEN WILLIAMS SAYS NO, INFLATION IS TOO HIGH. BUT HE AGREED WITH THE FED CHAIRMAN THAT THIS IS A DATA RICH ENVIRONMENT. INFORMATION-RICH AND THEY WANT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE YEAR. SO MUCH HAS ALREADY HAPPENED WHEN IT COMES TO WITH THE FEDERAL RESERVE NEEDS TO BE LOOKING OUT FOR. NOT THE SELLOFF IN THE STOCK MARKET BUT ALSO THE POLITICAL WINDS AND POLICY GOING FORWARD AND FISCAL POLICY GOING FORWARD. LISA: HOW MUCH HAS BEEN BAKED INTO THE MARKET IN TERMS OF THE FED NOT HAVING TO GO TOO MUCH FURTHER. IT IS DEFINITELY CHANGING THE BALANCE OF RISKS HEADING INTO THIS PAYROLLS REPORT WHICH IS THE EXPECTATION FOR 70,000 JOBS EXPECTED TO BE CREATED IN THE MONTH FROM 29,000 IN THE PRIOR MONTH. THE QUESTION AS TO WHERE THAT LEAVES WAGES. HOURS ARE SUPPOSED TO STAY AROUND 34 HOURS. ZERO POINT 3% GAIN IN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS. IS THAT ENOUGH TO GIVE A SENSE THAT MAYBE THERE IS SOME HEAT IN THIS LABOR MARKET THAT COULD GIVE FUEL TO WAGE INFLATION. ANNMARIE: THIS IS WHAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS LOOKING AT. IS THERE ANY INFLATION COMING FROM THE LABOR MARKET? SO FAR THAT HAS BEEN TAMED AND BEHAVED. POTENTIALLY THOUGH IF YOU ARE SEEING A RE-ACCELERATION, THAT WILL CHANGE. LISA: COMING UP, WE HAVE THAT MARKET REPORTS WITH NADIA LOVELL , JAY GOLDBERG, STEPHANIE ROTH, AND JEFFREY ROSENBERG OF BLACK ROCK. THIS IS \"BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE .\" GOOD MORNING. ♪ THERE’S A PAINFUL TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THIS MARKET UNDERNEATH. >> I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT. >> THE CONCERN ABOUT THE AI BUILD OUT OVERBLOWN. I LOOK AT IT AS A SPEED BUMP. >> THIS IS A REASSESSMENT OF THE AI TRADE. >> A LITTLE BIT OF THE SLOWDOWN TO REACH THE LEVEL OF ADOPTION WE NEED TO ACTUALLY USE ALL THE AI BUILDOUT IS A GOOD THING. >> THIS IS \"BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE.\" ANNMARIE: WELCOME BACK FOR THE THIRD HOUR ON THIS FRIDAY. ITS JOB STAY IN AMERICA. 30 MINUTES AWAY FROM THE NON-FOREIGN PAYROLLS REPORTS. THE WORST STOCK MARKET SELLOFF SINCE MARCH 2020 THIS MORNING TRADE STOCK SPEAKING OUT AGAINST ON THE BASIC AVERAGES AS INVESTORS ARE BUYING BONDS AND LOWERING EXPECTATIONS FOR A DECEMBER FED HIKE EVEN AS WE EXPECT SOLID EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS. ANNMARIE: THE SURVEY LOOKING FOR 70,000. AS FAR AS 135,000 FROM ANOTHER. 100,000 POTENTIALLY IN TERMS OF THE GAP. THAT WILL BE THE NEXT CATALYST, POTENTIALLY, IF WE WERE GOING TO SEE THIS UNWINDING OF THE MASSIVE SELLOFF YESTERDAY. LISA: $2.3 TRILLION OF MARKET CAP RAISED FROM THE NASDAQ. NAMES LIKE NVIDIA ARE DOWN 9%. THE QUESTION IS WHY. IS THIS BECAUSE OF THE BLUE TSUNAMI OR ELECTION? WAS IT DISCUSSIONS FROM NEWLY ELECTED OFFICIALS? OR IS IT TECHNICAL VOLATILITY UNDERPINNING MARKETS? >> PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT OF BOTH. WITH THE NEW DEMOCRATIC SWEEP WHAT IT MEANS FOR PLACES LIKE TEXAS, GEORGIA, OHIO, A LOT OF DATA CENTERS WILL NEED REGULATORY APPROVAL. THAT THEY WILL BE HITTING PAUSE. MAYBE YOU HAVE TO RECALIBRATE TO PRICE IN THE AI TRADE. START OF THIS -- SOME OF THIS FEEDS ON ITSELF. THEN YOU SEE A HOST OF SELLING. LISA: NEXT WEEK WILL BE IMPORTANT. WE WILL GET MORE RHETORIC FROM WASHINGTON, D.C. ABOUT WHAT THE PLANS ARE. AND WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMPS PLANS ARE. YOU TALKED ABOUT CABINET MEMBERS THAT COULD BE POTENTIALLY LEAVING AND WILL IT INJECT A DOSE OF VOLATILITY INTO A MARKET THAT IS POTENTIALLY JUMPY. ANNMARIE: THE RHETORIC AND WHAT HAPPENS. POTENTIALLY YOU COULD SEE PERSONNEL AND POLICY CHANGES. FOR THE AI TRADE, TWO THINGS THIS MORNING PRINT OF THE PRESIDENT HAD AN OLIVE BRANCH TO WORK WITH SOME OF THESE STATES. HE NEEDS THE TRADE TO WORK BECAUSE IT'S AMERICA'S GROWTH WHEN IT COMES TO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND GDP NUMBERS. LOOKING AT THE WASHINGTON POST THIS MORNING HOUSE MEMBERS ARE PREPARING TO BRING IN META, MICROSOFT, APPLE, ELON MUSK, AND A LOT OF QUESTIONS FOR THESE COMPANIES. LISA: THIS MORNING, IF YOU LOOK AT WHERE FUTURES ARE, IT SEEMS CALM HEADING INTO THE 1.3% GAIN ON NASDAQ. SIMILAR WITH THE RUSSELL 2000. SEEMS LIKE A NORMAL DAY. YESTERDAY WAS SIMILAR. THE REAL PAIN DID NOT START UNTIL 9:30 A.M. EASTERN WHEN THE U.S. MARKET OPENED. LOOK AT BONDS. YOU ARE SEEING A BIT OF A BID INTO BONDS FROM YESTERDAY REVERSE. NOW A THREE BASIS POINT INCREASE ACROSS THE CURVE WITH THE EXPECTATION WE COULD GET A HOT PAYROLLS REPORT. LET'S LOOK AT INDIVIDUAL MOVERS ON THE EQUITY MARKET TODAY. LET'S LOOK AT THE BIG SEMI NAMES. NVIDIA, AMD, BROAD CALM. ABSOLUTELY SOARING AFTER YESTERDAY'S CARNAGE. LET'S LOOK AT OTHER NAMES. CLOUD FLARE. -- EXCUSE ME. OF COREWEAVE, IREN. COREWEAVE UP TO 9.8 PERCENT THIS MORNING SPEAKING TO YESTERDAY'S BROAD-BASED SELLING LEADING TO BROAD-BASED BUYING. IS THIS A HEALTHY MARKET? COMING UP, TECHNOLOGIES WORST DAY SINCE MARCH, 2020. JAY GOLDBERG OF SEAPORT AND STEPHANIE ROTH OF WOLF RESEARCH BREAK DOWN THE PAYROLLS REPORT. STOCKS REBOUND AND AFTER WIPING OUT NEARLY $4 TRILLION IN MARKET VALUE. EQUITIES MAY STAY UNDER PRESSURE NEAR TERM, BUT WE EXPECT A GRIND HIGHER OVER THE COMING MONTHS. POLITICS AND PHYSICAL BOTTLENECKS MIGHT MAKE AI HARDER TO BUILD, BUT NOT LESS NEEDED. NADIA JOINS US TODAY. IS IT HEALTHY, WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN MARKETS? NADIA: I DO NOT THINK IT'S UNHEALTHY. YOU ARE SEEING A REPRICE OF FINANCE AND EXECUTION RISK NOW GIVEN POLICY CHANGES. THAT SAID, WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY CALLING A BOTTOM HERE. WE THINK THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES BUT IT IS NOT A WHOLE CELL BY THE DIP. WE SEEK CONTINUOUS SELLING PRESSURE BECAUSE OF KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS. THIS COULD FUEL ADDITIONAL SYSTEMATIC SELLING. WE DO NOT THINK THIS IS DONE YET. I THINK THAT THERE IS THIS CONCERNED ABOUT FINANCING AND EXECUTION IS WAR -- HAS WARRANTED A BIT OF REPRICING. WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND WHAT THE OUTLOOK IS FROM A POLITICAL STANDPOINT IN TERMS OF THE BUILDOUT OF DATA CENTERS. YOU CAN SEE SOME PROJECT DELAYS. THAT IS VERY DIFFERENT THAN CANCELLATION, LISA. LISA: WHAT TRADE DO WE SEE THAT IS FUNDAMENTALLY JUSTIFIABLE, EVEN AT IT -- IF IT WAS OVERDONE, THROWING OUT THE BABY WITH THE BATHWATER. NADIA: IT'S FAIR TO SAY THERE'S A LOT OF SPENDING HAPPENING IN THE DATA CENTER SPACE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH FREE CASH FLOW. THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE REVENUE AND RECOGNIZING REVENUE IF PROJECTS ARE DELAYED AND WHAT THAT COULD MEAN FOR THE SEMICONDUCTOR SPACE SPECIFICALLY. IF YOU DO HAVE PROJECTS, WE KNOW THIS IS NOT ABOUT 2027. WE EXPECT TO HAVE PERMITTING FOR THESE DUTCH ACROSS THESE FIVE STATES THAT ARE NOW DEMOCRATICALLY LETTER THAT ACCOUNTS FOR 40% OF DATA CENTER PLANNED BUILDOUT. 30 GIGAWATTS IS ALREADY PERMITTED. OVER THE NEXT 18-24 MONTHS. THIS IS MORE ABOUT 2028 INTO 2029. YOU COULD HAVE SLIPPAGE INTO 2029. YOU COULD HAVE A GAP WITHIN THE SEMICONDUCTOR'S, PARTICULARLY AROUND MEMORY, CHIPS, AND SO FORTH. THE INVENTORY CAN PUT PRICING PRESSURE AND PAUSE MARGINS INTO QUESTION AS WELL AS ULTIMATELY PROFIT. THAT IS WHAT ARE THE MARKET IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE. WE THINK IT IS ENCOURAGING. MY UTILITIES ANALYST POINTED OUT TO ME YESTERDAY THAT YOU HEARD A COMPANY THAT REPORTED YESTERDAY SAY ON THEIR EARNINGS CALL THEY ARE ALREADY IN TALKS WITH THE GOVERNOR-ELECT OF GEORGIA. OF COURSE, THAT IS NOT A DEAL, BUT ENGAGEMENT. IT FEELS LIKE THERE IS A PASS TO RESOLVE SOME OF THESE CONSTRAINTS. WE HAVE HEARD OVERNIGHT FROM THE GOVERNOR OF TEXAS. SHE IS ANTI-DATA CENTER. IT IS MORE ABOUT THE TERMS OF CONSTRUCTION. RATHER THAN A PERMANENT BAN ON CONSTRUCTION. ANNMARIE: THIS IS WHAT I DON'T UNDERSTAND. IF THE GOVERNORS SOUND MORE PRAGMATIC THAN ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL AND YOU SAY DELAYED, NOT DUMPS, WHEN IT COMES TO DATA CENTERS, WHY IS THE SELLOFF SO DEEP? NADIA: IT IS THE TRIGGER. SOME OF THIS IS MACHINES. IT'S REALITY. SOME OF IT IS SORT OF THAT SELLING BEGETS SELLING AND BEGETS SELLING. YOU NEED MORE OF THAT TO COME OUT. THESE ARE THE BEGINNINGS OF DISCUSSIONS, RIGHT? YOU NEED TO SEE MORE OF THAT HAPPENING IN COMING WEEKS. MORE CONCRETE. THE NEXT SIX MONTHS WILL MATTER. IT IS PLANNING FOR 2028 AND 2029 . DEALING WITH THE MARKET, WE HAVE BEEN SELECTIVE. WE HAVE ACCELERATED THE SELECTION PRINT LISA, YOU POINTED OUT SEMIS UP TODAY. WE ARE LOOKING FOR QUALITY. WE ARE LOOKING FOR COMPANIES WHERE MARGINS HAVE NOT BEEN INFLATED OVER THE LAST COUPLE YEARS. THERE HAS NOT BEEN AS MUCH MARGIN PICK. WE WILL FOCUS ON THE COMPUTER AND LESS SO ON THE MEMORY. HISTORICALLY, MEMORY STOCKS BOTTOM OUT AT 1.2 TIMES. THERE COULD BE MORE DOWNSIDE FOR THAT CRITTER THAT IS WHEN WE LOOK TO STEP INTO MEMORY. -- STEP DOWNSIDE FOR THAT. THAT IS WHEN WE STEP INTO MEMORY. THE VALUE OF THOSE PERMITTED US NOW,. THAT IS WHERE WE ARE AT. THE ONES THAT ALREADY HAVE CAPACITY AND POWER AND OF THE POLITICAL HAD 1 -- THESE COULD HAVE POLITICAL HEADWINDS. IT GOES BACK TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COMPANY BALANCE SHEETS AND PROFITABILITY AND ABILITY TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE COMMUNITY. THEY ARE NOT AGAINST PAYING THEIR OWN SHARE. IN TERMS OF UPGRADING THE GRIDS, BEING MINDFUL OF WATER AND THE COST TO THE CONSUMER AND HIGHER ELECTRICITY PRICES, YOU WILL SEE MORE AND MORE DEALS AROUND THAT NOW. YES, COSTS GO UP. GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY ON THE CAPEX WE DON'T THINK IT WILL BE A MAJOR HIT TO EARNINGS. IT IS ABOUT GOING UP. STAYING UP IN QUALITY IS IMPORTANT HERE. LISA: DO YOU CARE ABOUT NON-FOREIGN PAYROLLS TODAY? NADIA: ONE DATA POINT WANT TO CHANGE A NARRATIVE. -- WON'T CHANGE A NARRATIVE. IF WE SEE A REALLY WEAK NUMBER, IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, THAT'S NOT VERY HELPFUL. FROM A FAX STANDPOINT, IT IS MORE ABOUT INFLATION. IF WE SEE RELIEF IN OIL PRICES, MORE SUSTAINED RELIEF IN OIL PRICES AND NEGOTIATION AROUND THE PUMP IN THE MIDDLE EAST, IT COULD HELP THE INFLATION OUTLOOK. WE ARE STICKING TO OUR VIEW OF ONE AT RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER, AND ANOTHER IN MARCH. WE THINK THE FED IS A VERY FOCUSED ON BRINGING DOWN INFLATION. LISA: ALWAYS GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON ON PAYROLLS FRIDAY. IT GETS TO THE HEART OF THE QUESTION, HOW DOES -- HOW DO PEOPLE FEEL? IT INDICATES THE INFLATION PROBLEM. ANNMARIE: ON A DAY LIKE TODAY, IT WOULD NOT BE HELPFUL FOR ANYONE IF THIS WAS AN ELITE PAYROLLS REPORT. HERE IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF WITH VONNIE QUINN. VONNNIE: THE TWO HELD TALKS OVER MARITIME NAVIGATION ON THE SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLIES. QATAR IS ACTING AS CHIEF MEDIATOR BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN AS THE WAR ENTERS ITS NINTH MONTH. PUSHBACK. THREE MAJOR INVESTORS PLAN TO PARTICIPATE IN THE IPO AND BELIEVE THE EVALUATION NEEDS TO COME DOWN. ONE INVESTOR REPORTEDLY SAYING IT COULD BECOME CLOSER TO TRILLION. DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR-ELECT OF TEXAS GINA HINOJOSA TAKING AIM AT SPACEX CEO ELON MUSK. >> IT'S NOT THAT I HATE DATA CENTERS. I HATED THE WAY THEY ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TEXAS. SELLING OUR BEACH TO ELON MUSK IS ALMOST UNIMAGINABLE. WE CAN HAVE A STRONG RELATIONSHIP WITH ELON MUSK AND HIS COMPANIES. BUT IT HAS TO BE ON OUR TERMS. VONNIE: REITERATING THE NEED TO BALANCE A STRONG INDUSTRY WITH PROTECTIONS FOR TEXAS. LISA: NEXT, THE MORNING CALLS, PLUS, JAY GOLDBERG OF SEAPORT AS NVIDIA ENTERS A BEAR MARKET. THAT'S NEXT. >> IT'S MORE DIFFICULT TO BUY WHEN VOLATILITY IS HIGH AND PRICES GO DOWN BUT IT'S OFTEN RIGHT. ACTIVE MANAGEMENT, ACTIVE SELECTION, I KNOW IT IS A CLICHE BUT WINNERS AND LOSERS IS REALLY GOING TO MATTER MORE AND MORE AS WE SEE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. LISA: THAT WAS SEBASTIAN PAGE A OF T. ROWE PRICE AFTER AN ABSOLUTE DRUBBING YESTERDAY. TODAY, YOU'RE SEEING A BIT OF A REPRIEVE AT LEAST IN THE TECH NAMES, UP ABOUT ONE -- 1.3% FOR NASDAQ. SOME SPECIFIC NAMES, PICKING WINNERS AND LOSERS, YESTERDAY'S LOSERS RJ'S BIGGEST WINNERS. NVIDIA, SHARES WERE DOWN 9% YESTERDAY. THEY ARE TRYING TO GET SOME OF THAT BACK, UP 4.3 PERCENT TODAY. AMD, UP 7.4 PERCENT AFTER REPORTING EARNINGS THAT WERE NOT SO BAD BUT THEY GOT DRAGGED INTO YESTERDAY'S CARNAGE. COREWEAVE SHARES ARE ALSO FLYING. THEY ARE UP 9.5 PERCENT IN PREMARKET TRADING. A REAL QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THIS IS HEALTHY OR WHETHER THIS IS STILL SYSTEMATIC TRADING THAT NEEDS TO WORK THROUGH UNDER PENDING -- UNDERPINNING SOME OF THE ACTION FROM YESTERDAY. ANNMARIE: SHE DOESN'T THINK THIS IS THE END OF THIS. IT'S NOT HELPFUL WHEN YOU SEE ALL THESE HEADLINES COMING OUT AND EVEN WITH THE PRODUCTION MARKETS, ANTHROPIC, WHEN WILL THEY ANNOUNCE IPO? ABSOLUTELY SINKING LIKE A FALLING KNIFE IN TERMS OF PEOPLE THINKING POTENTIALLY THIS IS GOING TO BE PUT OFF. IF IT COMES TO MARKET, THE VALUATION WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS MANY HAD THOUGHT. LISA: PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT ANTHROPIC QUITE CONSIDERABLY. WALL STREET JOURNAL TALKING ABOUT PUSHBACK FROM INVESTORS. BLOOMBERG NEWS REPORTING INVESTORS I SET TO DISCUSS AND ANTHROPIC IPO VALUE OF 1.2 TRILLION DOLLARS TO 1.3 TRILLION DOLLARS. WE SAW NUMBERS AS LOW AS TRILLION. EXECUTIVES FROM ANTHROPIC ARE MEETING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ORDER TO DECIDE WHAT TO DO NEXT AND HOW TO PROCEED AND WHETHER THEY ARE GOING TO IPO AT ALL IN 2026. FIRST OF, CITI DOWNGRADING BJ'S WHOLESALE TRADE TO NEUTRAL. SHARES ARE DOWN 8/10 OF A PERCENT. WELLS FARGO, RAISING ITS PRICE TARGET FOR AIRBNB, SAYING ITS GROWTH GAP IS WIDENING COMPARED TO ITS PEERS. THOSE SHARES ARE UP ALMOST 14% AFTER REPORTING BETTER THAN EXPECTED EARNINGS. PIPER SANDLER IS RAISING ITS PRICE TARGET ON CLOUDFLARE. UP 19% PREMARKET TRADING PRAYED LET'S STICK WITH TECH. NVIDIA WIPING OUT NEARLY A HALF TRILLION DOLLARS IN MARKET VALUE IN THURSDAY'S TRADE, PUSHING THE STOCK INTO A BEAR MARKET. A 80 PRICE TARGET. HE'S THE ONE PERSON WHO DOES NOT SEEM DEPRESSED THIS MORNING. JAY, ARE WE SEEING A WASHOUT THAT MAKES YOU LIKE NVIDIA MORE? >> I THINK THIS SELLOFF IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS, ESPECIALLY YESTERDAY, IS OVERDONE. I THINK WHAT REALLY CAUGHT MY EYE RECENTLY IS HOW INDISCRIMINATE THE SELLING IS. GOOD COMPANIES, BAD COMPANIES, EVERYTHING WAS DOWN DOUBLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. ON WHAT I THINK IS NO REAL TANGIBLE NEWS. IT'S BEEN A LONG WEEK. I'M GOING TO TAKE THE WEEKEND STAND. AS BEARISH AS I AM AND THE FACT THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. NVIDIA HIT MY PRICE TARGET YESTERDAY, WHICH I DON'T THINK ANYONE SAW COMING. EXCEPT ME. I THINK THERE IS A LOT HERE. THAT IS STARTING TO LOOK VERY ATTRACTIVE. LISA: WHO DO YOU THINK HAS GOTTEN THROWN OUT WITH THE BATHWATER AND BEATEN UP DISPROPORTIONATELY? YOU MENTIONED NVIDIA. ARE THERE OTHERS THAT YOU THINK GOT TAKEN FOR A RIDE THAT START TO LOOK ATTRACTIVE? JAY: I THINK AMD IS FIRING ON ALL CYLINDERS. THEY HAD A REALLY GOOD QUARTER. I UPGRADED SIDE TIME. AN INTERESTING COMPANY THAT IS DOING ALL KINDS OF CREDIBLE THINGS AND GROWING INCREDIBLY FAST. I THINK THE LIST GOES ON. I AM NOT SURE ABOUT NVIDIA YET. I HAVE TO LOOK REAL HARD AT THAT. WE HAVE NOT HAD ANY NEWS. NOTHING HAS CHANGED FOR A LOT OF THESE COMPANIES. I WANT TO WORK THROUGH ALL OF THESE. I THINK THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE ANTHROPIC. THAT'S THE ONE THAT WE HAVE TO THINK HARD ABOUT. ANNMARIE: DO YOU THINK ANTHROPIC POTENTIALLY WILL BE ANOTHER SOURCE OF VOLATILITY IN THE SENSE THAT WE HAVE REPORTING FOLLOWING WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTING THAT VALUATION WAS ONCE AGAIN SLASHED? HOW DO WE GO FROM $2 TRILLION TO .2 TRILLION, .3 TRILLION, MAYBE 1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS? THIS IS A LOT OF MONEY THAT IS BEING WIPED OFF. JAY: I COVERED ANTHROPIC LAST WEEK. I HAVE A PRETTY GOOD VIEW ON VALUATION THERE. THEY MERIT THE HIGHER VALUATION. THE REAL QUESTION AND WHAT I SUSPECT IS LEADING THE CHARGE IS TWO DAYS AGO, THEY RELEASED THEIR -- WHICH SHOWED THEIR Q3 NUMBERS AND GROWTH REALLY SLOWED. PEOPLE WERE WORRIED THAT ANTHROPIC IS SEEING SLOWING GROWTH. DOES THAT MEAN IT IS ALL OVER? IT LOOKS LIKE THE REASON THERE GROWTH SLOWED WAS BECAUSE THEY COULD NOT GET ENOUGH COMPUTE. AND SO, I THINK THAT SPEAKS TO THEIR IS A LOT OF UNDERLYING DEMAND. CLOUDFLARE WAS INCREDIBLE, THAT IS DRIVEN BY A I DEMAND IN THE ENTERPRISE. I THINK ANTHROPIC, ANTHROPIC IS IN THIS WEIRD SPOT WHERE IPO VALUATIONS ARE MORE ART THAN SCIENCE. SO, THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE TO NEGOTIATE BETWEEN THE BIG HOLDERS AND THEIR INVESTMENT BANK SYNDICATE. I HOPE THEY DO GO PUBLIC. I THINK THAT THEY, MAYBE THEY LOWER THEIR EXPECTATIONS. THEY RAISE LESS NOW AND THEY DO A SECONDARY IN NINE MONTHS WHEN THEY PROVE THEMSELVES A LITTLE BIT. I ALWAYS SAY THAT AN IPO IS LIKE A WEDDING. IT'S THE WEDDING THAT DOES NOT MATTER AND THE MARRIAGE THAT DOES MATTER. YOU HAVE TO THINK FOR THE LONG-TERM. I THINK THEY SHOULD TAKE THE PLUNGE, GO PUBLIC AND TAKE WHATEVER EVALUATION THE MARKET ACCEPTS AND LET US SEE THEIR GROWTH AND THAT WILL SOLVE THE PROBLEM. ANNMARIE: IF THEY ARE THE BRIDE, IS THE GROOM GOING TO BE THERE? IF THEY GO PUBLIC, IS IT GOING TO BE SUCCESSFUL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT? WE ARE TALKING ABOUT TWO WEEKS TIME. JAY: YEAH, I FEEL FOR THEM. I'M SURE THEIR MANAGEMENT TEAM IS GOING THROUGH ALL KINDS OF -- IT WILL BE A TOUGH DECISION MAKING WEEK -- WEEKEND FOR THEM. I WOULD SAY A LOT OF IT WILL COME DOWN TOO WHAT THEY SAY ON THE ROADSHOW. THERE WAS SOME INITIAL REPORTING THIS MORNING THAT IT LOOKED LIKE THEIR OCTOBER SALES HAD PICKED UP AGAIN. THEY CAN'T GET ENOUGH JEEP USE. THAT TELLS ME THERE IS A LOT MORE DEMAND. I GO BACK TO CLOUDFLARE. THAT IS A DECENT PROPHECY FOR WHAT PEOPLE ARE DOING WITH AI. I THINK THERE IS A LOT OF DEMAND OUT THERE. AS LONG AS ANTHROPIC CAN COMMUNICATE CLEARLY WHAT THEY CAN DO AND HOW THEY CAN RETURN TO THIS TRIPLE DIGIT SEQUENTIAL GROWTH AGENCY, THEN I THINK THEY SHOULD DO IT. LISA: YOU HAD A LINE IN YOUR NOTES THAT MADE ME LAUGH WHERE YOU SAID A LOT WAS GOING TO DEPEND ON WHETHER ANTHROPIC GOES AHEAD WITH THIS IPO. THE WHOLE STOCK MARKET DEPENDS ON DARI ON MONDAY'S -- DARIO AMODEI'S COMMUNICATION SKILLS, WHAT COULD GO WRONG? IF THEY DON'T GO PUBLIC IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS, WHAT DO YOU THINK THE CONSEQUENT THIS COULD BE? JAY: FOR THEM, IT IS CHALLENGING. THEY HAVE DELAYED THEIR IPO TWICE. DELAYING IT A THIRD TIME IS A BAD LOOK AND PROBABLY MEANS THEY HAVE TO TAKE A LONGER PAUSE BEFORE THEY GO -- THEY WON'T GO PUBLIC UNTIL NEXT YEAR AT THIS POINT. THEY WILL HAVE TO WAIT SIX TO NINE MONTHS TO GO AT IT AGAIN. THAT IS ALWAYS RISKY. THIS IS A COMPANY THAT HAS ALMOST 900 BILLION DOLLARS IN COMPUTE COMMITMENTS. THEY HAVE TO START PAYING THOSE SOON. THEY HAVE 100 BILLION DOLLARS-ISH ON THE BALANCE SHEET. THEY CAN AFFORD IT TO SOME POINT. BUT I THINK IT WOULD BE BETTER FOR THEM IF THEY COULD GO PUBLIC SOONER AND JUST BUILD ALL THE COMPUTE THEY NEED TO MEET THAT DEMAND. IF THEY DON'T GO PUBLIC, I THINK THE MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO SORT OF REMAIN VERY CAUTIOUS. PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE WORRIED, IS THE OTHER SHOE GOING TO DROP? THAT WOULD BE THE FEAR. LISA: I LOOK FORWARD TO CATCHING UP WITH YOU NEXT WEEK WHEN YOU HAVE SUSSED THROUGH THE CARNAGE. LEAVING US WITH A SLEW OF WEDDING CLICHES IN OUR HEADS ABOUT IF ANTHROPIC IS THE BRIDE AND DOES THE GROOM, WHICH IS THE MARKET, WANT A PRENUP? DO YOU WANT THIS MARRIAGE TO BE OK, ARE YOU THINKING OF MARRIAGE COUNSELING? ANNMARIE: JAY IS GETTING ON AN IMPORTANT POINT. A LOT OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE ART OF GOING PUBLIC AND BECOME INDICATION STYLE. THE REASON WHY HE IS SAYING WHAT COULD GO WRONG TONGUE-IN-CHEEK IS BECAUSE THIS IS A COMPANY THAT DID TELL US THAT THERE IS A ONE IN 10 CHANCE THAT POTENTIALLY THEIR TECHNOLOGY COULD WIPE OUT HUMANITY. THEY HAVE NOT HAD THE GREATEST COMMUNICATION WHEN IT COMES TO HOW THEY HAVE DEALT WITH POLITICS. THEY ARE STILL A SUPPLY CHAIN RISK WHEN IT COMES TO THE DOD. YOU HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THAT. WHAT KIND OF POTENTIAL OWN GOALS COULD WE SEE BECAUSE OF THEIR COMMUNICATION ERRORS? LISA: WE ARE FOUR MINUTES AWAY FROM PAYROLLS AND WHETHER THAT SHAKES THE NEEDLE. THE PAYROLLS REPORT IS AROUND THE CORNER. STEPHANIE ROTH JOINS US TO REACT. THE GOLDILOCKS REPORT EVERYBODY WANTS, NOT TOO HOT OR NOT TOO -- AND NOT TOO COLD. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISRUPTION SO FAR THIS WEEK. GOOD MORNING. THIS IS \"BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE.\" LIS: A BIT OF THIS RISK ON FEELING THIS MORNING HEADING INTO PAYROLLS. YOU SEE THE LIFT LED BY BIG TECH, UP BY 1.6%. IN THE BOND SPACE, 2S, 10S, 30S, YOU SEE YESTERDAY'S RALLY FADING A BIT, PARTICULARLY AT THE FRONT END OF THE YIELD CURVE. HOW MUCH DOES A HOT LABOR MARKET REPORT END UP CHALLENGING THIS IDEA THAT THE FED DOESN'T NEED TO HIKE RATES? LET'S GO TO MICHAEL MCKEE WITH YOUR JOBS REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. MIKE: HERE'S AN INTERESTING SURPRISE, A HOT JOBS REPORT, 165,000 JOBS COME IN IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER COME UP FROM A REVISED 60,000 LAST MONTH. SEPTEMBER, THE INITIAL REPORT WAS 29,000. UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS TO 4.1% FROM 4.2%. MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS 19,000. THE FORECAST WAS FOR 7000 PAYMENT LAST MONTH WAS 13,000. ACROSS THE BOARD WE ARE SEEING STRONGER SEPTEMBER AND STRONGER OCTOBER NUMBERS. HOURLY EARNINGS UP STRONG, 0.4%, UP JUST 0.1% IN SEPTEMBER. ON A YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS, 3.1%. THAT IS STILL BELOW THE RATE OF INFLATION, SO THAT WILL NOT BOTHER THE FED, BUT IT MAY RAISE SOME EYEBROWS ABOUT WHAT WE ARE SEEING HERE IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS EMPLOYMENT REPORT. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE RISES TO 61.9% FROM 61.8%. ONE IT LOOKS LIKE HERE IN TERMS OF JOB CREATION, PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES WAS THE BIG WINNER, AS USUAL, UP BY 70,000. THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES HAS NOW ADDED 269,000, UP BY 33,000 SINCE OCTOBER 25. HEALTH, 42,000. WE ARE SEEING STRENGTH AND A LOT OF THE AREAS THAT WE NORMALLY SEE STRENGTH IN, WE SAW THE SEPTEMBER JOLT REPORT SUGGESTING THERE ARE MORE JOB OPENINGS. HIRED. LISA: STAY CLOSE AS YOU LOOK THROUGH THE NUMBERS AND LET US KNOW WHEN YOU GET MORE. RIGHT NOW IN MARKETS, A KNEE-JERK REACTION ON THE FRONT END OF THE YIELD CURVE, UP SEVEN BASIS POINTS, POSSIBLY MORE AS PEOPLE LOOK AT A HOT HEADLINE NUMBER, MUCH HARDER THAN EXPECTED. REVISION UP TO THE PRIOR WEEK AS WELL AS HOTTER THAN EXPECTED AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, 0.4%. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLING, NOT STAYING AT 4.2%, BUT FALLING TO 4.1%. ANNMARIE: ACROSS THE BOARD, FRONT. AS MIKE SAID, THIS MEANS THAT THE FED WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THIS AND POTENTIALLY RAISE AN EYEBROW WHEN YOU SEE THE WAY TO GROW UP WE ARE SEEING FROM THIS UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT. ALSO, THIS NUMBER CAUGHT MY EYE, CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS. THE SURVEY WAS FOR 7000, THEY CAME IN AT 19,000. A LOT OF THE JOBS GOING TO WHERE WE ARE SEEING THE BIG GROWTH IN THIS COUNTRY, THE BUILDOUT OF DATA CENTERS AND AI. AI TRADE. LISA: YOU ALSO SEE THE THREE-MONTH AVERAGE CHANGE, 130 7000, UP FROM 79,000. AS YOU LOOK THROUGH THE NUMBERS, ANYTHING ELSE JUMP OUT? MIKE: THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE JOINING THE LABOR FORCE HAS BEEN LARGER. 421,000 PEOPLE INTO THE LABOR FORCE. WE SAW MORE PEOPLE GETTING JOBS ON THE HOUSEHOLD SIDE OF THE QUESTIONNAIRE, 453,000 DURING THE MONTH, WHILE THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE UNEMPLOYED FELL BY 41,000. THIS IS THE GOOD NEWS WAY OF LOOKING AT THE UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT. NUMBER OF PEOPLE NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE FALLING BY 293,000. SO PEOPLE ARE SEEING A BETTER LABOR FORCE, AND THEY ARE GETTING JOBS. NOTHING TO ARGUMENT ABOUT THAT. MORE ON THE BREAKDOWN OF WHERE THE JOBS WERE CREATED, BUT WE CAN NOTE, TRADERS ARE ALREADY INCREASING BETS ON A DECEMBER RATE HIKE IF THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO BE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. LISA: MORE THAN A 70% CHANCE OF A RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER. STAY CLOSE, WE WILL TALK WITH YOU IN JUST A BIT. STEPHANIE ROTH OF WOLFE RESEARCH JOINS US NOW FOLLOWING THE PLOT REPORT, BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED WHAT STANDS OUT TO YOU? STEPHANIE: THE COMBINATION OF EVENTS HERE. YOU HAD A VERY STRONG NUMBER, STRONGER VISIONS COME DROP IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, AND THAT COMES AT A TIME WHEN INVESTORS ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE ECONOMY FOR 2027, TAKING DOWN THE ODDS OF A DECEMBER HIKE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE ECONOMY IS RUNNING FIRM. LIKELY TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CAPEX THAT LOOK LOOKING AHEAD TO 2027. REALISTICALLY, THE FED IS STILL DETERIORATE. BREADTH CONTINUES TO BE STRONG, IN A STABLE LABEL MARKET, BUT ONE THAT IS GETTING INCREMENTALLY BETTER. LISA: I WANT TO FOCUS ON AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, NOT ONLY DID IT COME IN HOTTER VERSUS THE EXPECTED 0.3%, BUT IT WAS UPGRADED FOR THE PRIOR MONTH FOR SEPTEMBER, 0.3% FROM 0.1%. HOW MUCH DO YOU MAKE OF THOSE NUMBERS? STEPHANIE: YEAR OVER YEAR AVERAGE ARM OF THE EARNINGS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW OF THE REALITY. WE ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3% ON A YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS. THE FED LOOKS TO 3.5, 4% AS BEING CONSISTENT WITH A 2% INFLATION TARGET. THE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN LARGELY UNDERSTATED UP TO THIS POINT. I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE WAGES CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE FACT THAT THE LABOR MARKET IS PRETTY GOOD AND WILL LIKELY PICK UP TO WARNED THAT 3.5 PERCENT TO 4% PACE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. TODAY WAS JUST FURTHER INDICATION OF THAT. JOEL'S EARLY IN THE WEEK SUGGEST THE LABOR MARKET IS IMPROVING. ANNMARIE: DOES THIS MAKE THE FEDERAL RESERVE MORE NERVOUS NOW? STEPHANIE: WE HAVE HAD SO MANY MONTHS WHERE WAGE GROWTH HAS BEEN RUNNING STILL BELOW WHERE THEY THINK INFLATIONARY PRESSURES START TO RISE. AT THIS POINT, PROBABLY NOT. IF WE SEE FURTHER SIGNS OF TIGHTENING, WHETHER IT IS CONTINUED RISES IN WAGES, JOLTS CONTINUED TO BE STRONG, THEY MAY HAVE SOME CONCERN INFLATION IS NOT JUST COMING FROM TARIFF-RELATED RELATED SECTORS, THOUGH MORE, COME IN FOR THE LABOR MARKET, AND THAT IS THE KIND OF INFLATION THAT IS SUSTAINABLE AND SELF-FULFILLING. IT'S A RISK OF MAKING THE FED MORE NERVOUS, CERTAINLY INCREASES THE AUNTS OF HIKES IN THE NEXT COUPLE MEETINGS WHICH THE MARKET IS STARTING TO DISCOUNT. ANNMARIE: WHEN IT COMES TO THE OTHER NUMBERS WE ARE SEEING, I'M STRUCK BY THE MANUFACTURING NUMBERS, MUCH BETTER THAN EXPECTED. EXPECTED WAS 7000, THEY CAME IN AT 19,000. ARE THESE JOBS ALL RELATED TO THE AI BUILDOUT? STEPHANIE: THAT IS PROBABLY RIGHT. TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING. IT'S THE COMBINATION OF THE GENERAL GOODS SECTOR, PARTS OF THE ECONOMY BENEFITING FROM THE AI, WHICH IS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PART OF THE CAPEX DROP UP BACKDROP. IT MAKES SENSE THAT YOU WOULD SEE MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY PICK UP. THAT IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SLOWING EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT 2020 BEYOND. LISA: THERE IS THE STORY THAT THE OVERALL POPULATION OF THE EMPLOYABLE WORKFORCE HAS NOT BEEN GROWING THAT MUCH BECAUSE OF A CLAMPDOWN ON IMMIGRATION. YOU ARE SEEING THE PARTICIPATION RATE START TO CREEP HIGHER. HOW MUCH OF THAT IS SOMETHING YOU WANT TO TAKE NOTE OF, HOW MUCH OF THAT IS AN IMPORTANT INDICATOR FOR THIS MARKET? STEPHANIE: IT'S A POSITIVE SIGN. EARLIER IN THE YEAR, THERE WAS A BIG DROP IN THE PARTICIPATION RATE WHICH PROVED TO BE LARGELY NOISE, RELATED TO VOLATILITY OVER THE SUMMER. IT WOULD BE GREAT TO SEE THE PARTICIPATION RATE RISE, BRINGING IN MORE PEOPLE, AND THAT COULD HELP OFFSET THE TIGHTNESS YOU GET TO SOME EXTENT BECAUSE LABOR SUPPLY IS MODEST. AS YOU MENTIONED, THERE ARE FURTHER RISKS BECAUSE WE ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE JOB GROWTH IS RUNNING FAIRLY FIRM CERTAINLY AHEAD OF SUPPLY. JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE SEEN SO MUCH VOLATILITY IN THE DATA, WE ARE PROBABLY NOT RUNNING QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY'S PRINT WOULD SUGGEST. YOU ARE PROBABLY IN THIS 4.1, 4.2% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, AND IT IS MORE STEADY THAN IT SEEMS, BUT THE RISK IS TO THE UPSIDE WHERE THE DEMAND FOR LABOR IS HIGHER THAN SUPPLY. LISA: MIKE MCKEE HAS BEEN LOOKING AT ALL OF THE DATA, HAS MORE INFORMATION. MIKE: LET'S GO THROUGH SOME OF THE AREAS YOU WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT A SECOND AGO. WHEN YOU LOOK AT CONSTRUCTION, THE DATA CENTER IMPACT. THE NUMBER OF NONRESIDENTIAL TRAIN CONTRACTORS ROSE BY 7900 WHILE RESIDENTIAL SPECIALTY CONTRACTORS FELL BY 15.2 THOUSAND. SEMICONDUCTOR MENU AND OTHER ELECTRONIC DEVICES UP 3300. COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT CATEGORY UP BY 1400. THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS THAT WILL GET SOME ATTENTION, THIS IS THE SEASON WHERE WE START TO SEE HOLIDAY HIRING. IT SEEMS TO SHOW UP IN THESE NUMBERS, PARTICULARLY FOR CAREERS AND MESSENGERS, BASICALLY THE FOLKS AT UPS, FEDEX HIRING PEOPLE. THEY WERE UP BY QUITE A BIT, 15,000, I THINK. THAT SUGGESTS WE ARE GETTING AN EARLY START. GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES UP BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT AS COMPANIES START TO HIRE FOR THE HOLIDAY SEASON. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT HAS TO BE WORKED OUT WITH THE SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROCESS AS WE GO THROUGH ALL OF THIS. COURIERS AND MESSENGERS OF 17,400. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF EDUCATION IN THERE. FOR THE MOST PART COME IS THE USUAL SUSPECTS, 55,000 IN HEALTH AND SOCIAL SERVICES. WE DID SEE A DECLINE IN THE LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY SECTOR, AS THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE EMPLOYED AT BARS AND RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS FELL DURING THE MONTH. LISA: MICHAEL MCKEE, THANK YOU AS ALWAYS FOR BRINGING TAT. PEOPLE ARE BUILDING DATA SUCH AS NOT NECESSARILY HOMES. ANNMARIE: YOU CAN SEE THAT IN JUST THE HYPERSCALERS, CAPEX, WHAT IS HAPPENING, AND THESE MANUFACTURING JOBS, WHERE THOSE NUMBERS ARE GOING TO. THE MARKET EXPECTED 7000, CAME IN MORE THAN DOUBLE THAN WHAT THE MARKET WAS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE BOARD, 155,000, THE ESTIMATES WERE FROM 65,000 TO 131,000. ADD IN THE REVISIONS, YOU CAN SEE HOW STRONG THIS REPORT WAS. LISA: STEPHANIE, HOW MUCH STRENGTH ARE YOU SEEING IN THE LABOR MARKET STEMMING FROM THE AI TRADE VERSUS TRULY HOMEGROWN STRENGTH TIED TO A BROAD, DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY? STEPHANIE: I THINK IT'S A COMBINATION OF BOTH. YOU HAVE PARTS OF THE CONSTRUCTION SPACE, THE BUILDOUT DRIVING TO SOME EXTENT THE STRENGTH, BUT YOU ARE GETTING STRENGTH KIND OF ACROSS THE BOARD. I WOULDN'T SAY IT IS ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY AI, ALTHOUGH THAT'S THE STORY, BUT THAT IS THE CASE FOR THE ECONOMY MORE BROADLY. THE CONSUMER IS DOING QUITE WELL EVEN THOUGH IT'S AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE GASOLINE PRICES COMMEMORATES HAVE BEEN ELEVATED. IT IS A TALE OF TWO ECONOMIES. AI IS DRIVING A DECENT PORTION OF GROWTH, BUT YOU HAVE DOMESTIC STRENGTH HAPPENING OUTSIDE OF THAT THAT DOES NOT GET AS MUCH ATTENTION, GIVEN MARKETS ARE FOCUSED ON AI. EVEN IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE AI SLOWS FROM WHERE THE DOMESTIC CAPEX GROWTH IS CURRENTLY, THAT IS ABOUT 40 BASIS POINTS, BUT THAT IS NOT THE END OF THE U.S. ECONOMY AS WE KNOW IT. THERE ARE STILL SOLID ENGINES OF GROWTH THAT ARE NOT LINKED TO THIS AI SPACE. LISA: STEPHANIE ROTH, THANK YOU SO MUCH. A BULLET REPORT FROM THE LABOR MARKET COMING FROM THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. 155,000 JOBS CREATED VERSUS THE EXPECTATION OF 70,000. YOU SAW WAGES GO UP. THE MOVE IN MARKETS WAS INCREDIBLY MUTED. ANNMARIE: IMPORTANT WILL BE TUESDAY BECAUSE WE WILL GET WHAT HAPPENS WITH CPI. SAY WE GET A HOTTER CPI COME YOU ARE THE FEDERAL RESERVE, DO YOU THINK THAT WE ARE BEHIND THE CURVE AND SHOULD HAVE GONE IN OCTOBER? DECEMBER IS NOW GOING BACK UP ONCE AGAIN, THE MARKET IS NOW ANTICIPATING THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO HIKE. LISA: LET'S GET SOME STORIES ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. VONNIE QUINN HAS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. VONNIE: LET'S RECAP THE PAYROLLS PRINT. JOB GROWTH MUCH HOTTER THAN EXPECTED, ADDING 155,000 JOBS. ESTIMATES WERE FOR 70,000. THE ON EMPLOYMENT RATE COMING IN BELOW ESTIMATES, DROPPING TO 4.1%. THURSDAY'S TEXEL OF HAS INVESTORS SECOND-GUESSING THE VALUATION FOR ANTHROPIC'S UPCOMING IPO. POTENTIAL BACKERS NOW DISCUSSING ONE POINT $3 TRILLION DOWN FROM .5 TRILLION. DELIBERATIONS ARE ONGOING. NO FINAL DECISION HAS BEEN MADE. TESLA PLAN TO SCALE DOWN PRODUCTION OF ITS CYBER TRUCK IN TEXAS. ELON MUSK MAKING THE ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY, SAYING THE MOVE WILL COME IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT YEAR AND WILL FREE UP CAPACITY FOR THE COMPANY'S CYBERCAB. LISA: SETTING YOU UP FOR THE DAY AHEAD, PLUS JEFFREY ROSENBERG OF BLACKROCK, AS TRADERS ADD TO THAT'S FOLLOWING THE MARKET BLOWOUT. WE WILL GET HIM TO RESPOND. THIS IS \"BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE .\" ♪ >> YOU HAD A STRONG NUMBER, STRONG REVISIONS, A DROP IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT A TIME WHEN INVESTORS ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE ECONOMY FOR 2027 AND TAKING DOWN THE ODDS OF A DECEMBER HIKE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE ECONOMY IS RUNNING FIRM. THE FED IS LIKELY TO GO IN DECEMBER UNLESS FINANCIAL MARKETS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. LISA: THAT WAS STEPHANIE ROTH FOLLOWING THE BLOW UP JOBS REPORT, 160 5000 CREATED, THE EXPECTATION WAS 70,000. UNEMPLOYMENT FALLING TO 4.2%. WE HAD HOURLY WAGES RISE TO ZERO POINT 4%. IS THIS A GOLDILOCKS REPORT ON THE SURFACE? IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE IT. IT SEEMS LIKE HOT ROD REPORT. MARKETS REMAIN UNMOVED. ONE POINT 4% GAIN ON THE NASDAQ FUTURES. .20% GAIN ON THE S&P 500. TO MOST, TENS, 30'S, THE FRONT END OF THE YIELD CURVE -- TWO'S, TENS, 30'S, AND, YES, YOU SEE 10 YEAR YIELDS UP FOUR BASIS POINTS. NOT NECESSARILY SOME SORT OF BIG MOVE THAT YOU MIGHT THINK IF YOU SAW THE HEADLINE NUMBERS. ANNMARIE: NORMALLY YOU WOULD THINK YOU WOULD HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT ON WHERE MARKETS ARE TRADING BECAUSE IT WAS HOT, HOT, HOT ACROSS EVERY MEASURE, INCLUDING THE REVISIONS. LISA: TRADERS ARE ADDING TO DECEMBER RATE HIKE BETS. JEFF ROSENBERG JOINS US FOR MORE. ARE YOU SURPRISED THE MARKET ISN'T RESPONDING MORE TO THE REPORT? JEFFREY: NOT REALLY, TO BE HONEST. I THINK THE MARKET IS FOCUSED ON WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND OVERSEAS AND WHAT IS HAPPENING IN FUTURES MARKETS. WE HAVE SEEN A RETURN TO NEGATIVE STOCK CORRELATION, AND THE AI TRADE, WHICH HAS BEEN BENEFICIAL AND IMPACTFUL TO THE MACRO VIEW, AS WE WERE DISCUSSING, AND AS WE'VE SEEN IN THE GDP IMPACT, A LOT OF THAT IMPACT IS IMPACTING THE MACRO EXPECTATIONS ON GROWTH AND INFLATION. WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WAS A LITTLE BIT OF A ISSUE, IF YOU COULD SEE IT THAT WAY TO THAT OUTLOOK. IT IS A PLACE TO FIND DIVERSIFICATION AND OFFSET IN YOUR PORTFOLIOS AND IT HAS BEEN FIXED INCOME. IF AI IS REALLY POWERING THE GROWTH ENGINE, IF THERE'S A WOBBLE IN AI, MAY BE GROWTH AND INFLATION COMES DOWN AND THEN MAYBE RATES CAN COME DOWN. WHEN IT COMES TO FED EXPECTATIONS, THE FED WILL BE VERY FOCUSED ON FINANCIAL CONDITIONS AND CONDITIONS TIGHTENING. WE HEARD WARSH TALK ABOUT THAT THE LAST PRESS CONFERENCE, THE IMPACT OF RISING RATES AND TIGHTENING FINANCIAL CONDITIONS. THERE'S A LOT OF PRICING HERE GOING ON BEYOND THE MINUTIA AND UNPACKING THE DETAILS OF THE REPORT, WHICH WE CERTAINLY COULD DO, THAT IS RELATED TO THE BROADER AI IMPLICATIONS. LISA: WHAT DID HAPPEN YESTERDAY? IT DID NOT SEEM THERE WAS ANY NEWS. TODAY YOU ARE SEEING SOME OF THE BIGGEST LOSERS AS POTENTIAL BIGGEST WINNERS IN TRADING, DOES THIS FEEL LIKE A HEALTHY REASON TO SELLOFF IN REBOUND? JEFFREY: ONE THING I CAN SAY ABOUT WHETHER IT IS HEALTHY OR FOREST FIRES. IF YESTERDAY WAS ABOUT A SPARK, WHAT WAS IT? THE CHANGE IN ELECTIONS, THE CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS OF THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT AROUND AI AND DATA CENTERS, BUT IT WAS A SPARK THAT FOLLOWED A COUPLE OTHER SPARKS. WE HAD SOME WEAKENING EARNINGS REPORT FROM LARGE TECH. WE SAW A BIG RESPONSE AND WE SAW A RISE IN THE CREDIT MARKETS AROUND AI FINANCING AND CDF SPREADS, RISING HYPERSCALER DEBT SPREADS. THIS IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE AMOUNT OF EXPOSURES, PARTICULARLY LEVERED EXPOSURES, BOTH IN CREDIT AND EQUITY BY SOME MEASUREMENTS, TO GET THESE MEASUREMENTS FROM BROKERAGE DESKS, GROSS TERMS, WAS POINTING TO AN ELEVATED LEVEL. YOU CAN HAVE AN UNWIND AND THOSE EXPOSURES THAT MIGHT REFLECT A REACTION THAT IS MAY BE GREATER THAN WHAT HE WOULD OTHERWISE THINK IS DEEMED BY THE TRIGGER EVENT ON ITS OWN. ANNMARIE: THE POLITICS PORTION I DON'T QUITE UNDERSTAND BECAUSE WE KNEW THESE RESULTS WEDNESDAY, AND THE MARKET ACTUALLY RALLIED. WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF POLITICS THAT THE MARKET START TO LOOK AT THIS AND SAY, SOME OF THIS ARE POLITICAL ISSUES ON THE HORIZON FOR THIS MASSIVE BUILDOUT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE? JEFFREY: IT IS HARD TO KNOW. SOMETIMES -- WHERE IS JONATHAN FERRO WHEN YOU NEED HIM? IT'S NOT THE FIRST RESPONSE. WE TALKED A LOT ABOUT THIS THIS MORNING. IT'S NOT THE FIRST RESPONSE TO THE PAYROLL REPORT OR THE FIRST RESPONSE TO THE ELECTION. AND THEN IT IS THE CASCADING EFFECT OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN IN LEVERED POSITIONS AROUND CHANGES IN DIRECTION, SO THAT FIRST DIRECTION MAY BE RELATIVELY SMALL, BUT THE CASCADING EFFECT AND THE MULTIPLYING EFFECT OF LEVERAGE MIGHT BE SOMEWHAT RELATED TO THAT DELAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANNMARIE: WHEN IT COMES TO A MASSIVE IPO COMING TO MARKET BUT VALUATIONS ARE REPORTING IT WOULD BE LOWER, TALKING ABOUT ANTHROPIC, HOW IS THAT GOING TO IMPACT POTENTIALLY OR MAY BE MAKE THIS SELLOFF WORSE? JEFFREY: WELL, I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO PUT THE IPO AND EQUITY RAISE AND THE BROADER CONTEXT OF WHAT WE ARE DEBATING -- IPO IN EQUITY RAISE AND THE BROADER, CONTEXT OF WHAT WE ARE DEBATING. THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF AI IS THAT IT HAS BROUGHT ABOUT THIS INCREDIBLE INVESTMENT EXPANSION, AND THAT INVESTMENT EXPANSION WE ARE SEEING IN PAYROLL REPORTS, IMPACT ON CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DOWNSTREAM GROWTH, THE BROADENING OF THE AI BENEFIT, BUT THAT INVESTMENT BOOM REQUIRES FINANCING, AND THAT IS THE SHIFT, AND IT IS A REALLY IMPORTANT OBSERVATION. WE HAVE BEEN IN THIS AI THEME SINCE CHATGPT LAUNCHED IN NOVEMBER 20 22. WHAT IS DIFFERENT IN 2026 IS THAT THE FINANCING REQUIREMENTS TO FINANCE THE ACCELERATING EXPECTATIONS OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES NO LONGER CAN BE MET THROUGH INTERNAL REGENERATED CASH FLOWS. SO NOW IT IS A CAPITAL MARKETS ISSUE. AND THAT IS WHAT IS THE BROADER CONTEXT OF THAT EQUITY IPOS IS, WELL, HOW MUCH OF THAT FINANCING WILL BE MET BY EQUITY MARKETS? IF THAT SIZE IS REDUCED, THEN WE'LL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES GO DOWN OR WILL THE SIZE OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES KEEP PACE WITH THE ANTICIPATED DEMAND FROM AGENTIC AND OTHER NEW USES THAT CONTINUE TO LEAD TO THESE EXPECTATIONS AND EXPONENTIAL GROWTH AND DEMAND THAT IS FUELING THE REQUIRED BUILDOUT? THEN YOU HAVE TO FUNDING AND OTHER WAY IF THE EQUITY RAISE WILL BE LOWER. THAT IS WHERE THE ANGST HAS BEEN COMING INTO THIS. THE CREDIT MARKETS ARE NOT UNLIMITED IN THEIR ABILITY TO PRICE THAT CAPITAL. THAT ALSO BECOMES, AT WHAT PRICE? IF THE QUANTITY ISN'T UNLIMITED, WHERE WILL MARKETS CLEAR? THEY WILL CLEAR AT A HIGHER, OR IN THIS CASE, A LOWER SPREAD. WHAT THAT MEANS IS ALL THE COSTS OF THE BUILDOUT GO UP. IF THE COST OF BUILD OUTS GO UP, IN THAT INTERSECTION POINT, SOME WERE DOWN IN THE FUTURE THAT NOBODY KNOWS, WHAT IS THE INTERSECTION OF THE ENDPOINT OF THE PRICE OF DEMAND, PRICE TIMES QUANTITY IN THE FUTURE, HOW MUCH REVENUES DO WE DELIVER FROM THIS INCREDIBLE TECHNOLOGY? RELATIVE TO THE COST OF SUPPLY? THAT INTERSECTION BECOMES HARDER WHEN THE PRICE FOR FUNDING THAT GOES OUT. LISA: JEFF ROSENBERG OF BLACKROCK, THANK YOU. COMING UP ON MONDAY, JP MORGAN, SOPHIA, AND MORGAN STANLEY, A HUGE WEEK. ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND. WELL DESERVED. THIS WAS \"BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE.\" ♪","textShort":"Bloomberg Surveillance 11/6/2026\n\n>> THERE IS A PAINFUL TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THIS MARKET UNDERNEATH. >> IF YOU LOOK AT THE CYCLE, I'VE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING QUITE LIKE IT. >> THE CONCERN OVER THE AI BUILDOUT IS SOMEWHAT OVERBLOWN. I LOOK AT IT MORE AS A SPEED OUT --…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frFLFkWvixQ"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T16:33:20.274Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"1c47379d-fe16-4608-9bbe-9280b567eba3","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Tachyon makes Zcash quantum proof","scale Zcash to 50k TPS"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source says Project Tachyon could make Zcash quantum-resistant and enable much higher base-layer throughput.","topic":"zcash scaling plans"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["becoming peer-to-peer electronic digital cash","with built-in privacy"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source presents private peer-to-peer digital cash as Zcash's ambitious long-term vision.","topic":"zcash as digital cash"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"ZEC","confidence":0.9,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":1360.25,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T16:32:32.542Z","headline":"Expects ZEC to rise substantially, with a path to $20,000 as its scaling plans gain recognition","id":"sig_22d533e4944a46bb8bd305c8","matched":["$ZEC is an extremely misunderstood asset","I expect this knowledge gap to close when Tachyon hits mainnet in Q1 2027","$20,000 ZEC"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source expects ZEC to gain as Project Tachyon advances Zcash's scaling plans and more people recognize its potential as private digital cash.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"ZEC","tags":["zcash","project tachyon","price target"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"BTC","confidence":0.8,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":75872.5,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T16:32:32.542Z","headline":"Expects Bitcoin to face a confidence crisis and underperform, sending more flows toward ZEC","id":"sig_5787eeca5f2e4c70b3dbdd61","matched":["I expect Bitcoin to undergo a crisis of confidence","continued underperformance will drive more flows into ZEC"],"maxLeverage":40,"rationale":"The source expects concerns about quantum risks and continued underperformance to weaken confidence in Bitcoin and push capital toward ZEC.","routing":"direct","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"BTC","tags":["bitcoin","quantum risk","underperformance"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"37fd7732-605a-470e-8619-bc0046920a52","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T16:31:12.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2062216238223265793/WY21HCO0_normal.jpg","handle":"@tulipking","id":"x-2918936647","name":"Tulip King 🌷","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Reposted @TaikiMaeda2: $ZEC is an extremely misunderstood asset, which is why there's still so much upside left.\n\nZEC started to bottom around April 2025, when @ebfull shared a blog post about Project Tachyon. Tachyon makes Zcash quantum proof and paves the way to scale Zcash to 50k TPS. And you cannot address quantum without addressing scalability since post-quantum cryptographic signatures are going to be an order of magnitude larger.\n\nAt the risk of sounding hyperbolic, the real bull case for Zcash is to fulfill Satoshi's vision: becoming peer-to-peer electronic digital cash. What many Bitcoiners gave up on. Zcash has the same properties as BTC, except it has a credible roadmap to scale to 50k TPS at the base layer, with built-in privacy. It's extremely ambitious, but that is the vision.\n\nAt the same time, I expect Bitcoin to undergo a crisis of confidence. Crypto participants have been conditioned to blindly believe BTC will hit new highs every couple of years. I believe these assumptions will be challenged as the quantum overhang looms large, and continued underperformance will drive more flows into ZEC. I would not be surprised if BTC trades like ETH last cycle.\n\nPeter Thiel talks about the \"Last Mover Advantage.\" That is, it's far better to make the last great development in a market and then dominate. Facebook vs Myspace. Google vs Yahoo. Zcash has dominated a small niche (privacy), and then it plans to scale to the ambitious goal, which is peer-to-peer electronic cash.\n\nThe ZEC trade closely resembles the SOL trade last cycle. ZEC's ability to move fast challenges a slow-moving incumbent (BTC), similar to how SOL challenged the ivory tower of ETH. History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.\n\nThere’s a fundamental mismatch between why Zcash is going up (Tachyon + last mover advantage) and the broader market’s understanding (\"just a privacy coin\"). Understanding this is a form of alpha/edge. I expect this knowledge gap to close when Tachyon hits mainnet in Q1 2027.\n\nAs a result, I expect the following over the next 1-2yrs:\n1) Bitcoiners will start \"silent quitting\" and begin hedging their holdings with ZEC\n2) Capital allocators that may have full ported BTC 5 years ago, will buy both ZEC and BTC as a bet on a sovereign SoV\n3) Smart crypto developers to move on from other ecosystems to start contributing to Zcash\n4) As ZEC continues to outperform BTC, people will start to seriously entertain the possibility of a flippening\n5) $20,000 ZEC\n\nZigher.\n\nQuoting their own post: How Zcash Flips Bitcoin This Cycle\n\n0:00 $ZEC flipping BTC?\n1:20 Second Mover Advantage\n3:41 Project Tachyon: Path to 50k TPS\n5:39 How To Think About Zcash\n13:05 How Zcash gets to $20k\n15:13 Their Bias is Your Opportunity https://t.co/osxE0UNUlb https://t.co/90W3zL5mIH","textShort":"Reposted @TaikiMaeda2: $ZEC is an extremely misunderstood asset, which is why there's still so much upside left.\n\nZEC started to bottom around April 2025, when @ebfull shared a blog post about Project Tachyon. Tachyon makes Zcash quantum proof and paves the way to scale Zcash…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/tulipking/status/2118743008686522470"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T15:47:39.899Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[{"kind":"signal","proposal":{"market":"[\"hyperliquid\",\"para\",\"para:ANTH\"]"},"reason":"duplicate_asset"}],"id":"2dacb1b0-0308-4a44-8b9b-d783886ed19e","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["the momentum is still pretty good in terms of monthly ARR","That's pretty healthy","they are very well funded"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Mandeep Singh says Anthropic's revenue growth is healthy and that the company is well funded.","topic":"anthropic revenue and funding"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["That would definitely be a dooms like scenario","if they decide to shelve the IPO and they don't go public","I don't think it'll be a good outcome"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Mandeep Singh says shelving or delaying Anthropic's IPO would be a very bad outcome for the AI trade and broader markets.","topic":"ai trade and ipo delay"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["all the high growth names, on the tech side have had a, you know, reset in valuation"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Mandeep Singh says high-growth tech companies have seen their valuations reset.","topic":"tech company valuations"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["you are questioning their balance sheet","They don't have a problem like that"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Mandeep Singh says Neo-cloud companies face balance-sheet concerns that Anthropic does not have.","topic":"neo cloud balance sheets"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:ANT","confidence":0.75,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":103.69,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T15:47:05.833Z","headline":"Mandeep Singh expects Anthropic to IPO below its earlier valuation expectations","id":"sig_4b3ce89012ac429c8cbc2faa","matched":["I think it'll be very hard for them to get that 2,000,000,000,000 number or even 1,500,000,000,000","25% reset here"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"Mandeep Singh thinks Anthropic is unlikely to reach a $2 trillion or even $1.5 trillion valuation as tech valuations reset.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"ANT","tags":["anthropic","ipo valuation","tech reset"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"io:ANTH","confidence":0.75,"dex":"io","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":1668.95,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T15:47:05.833Z","headline":"Mandeep Singh expects Anthropic to IPO below its earlier valuation expectations","id":"sig_790a93d1f8694a7f96e27cd6","matched":["I think it'll be very hard for them to get that 2,000,000,000,000 number or even 1,500,000,000,000","25% reset here"],"maxLeverage":15,"rationale":"Mandeep Singh thinks Anthropic is unlikely to reach a $2 trillion or even $1.5 trillion valuation as tech valuations reset.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"ANTH","tags":["anthropic","ipo valuation","tech reset"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"865798bb-62cb-4e33-abdb-fc91c039dacd","marks":[{"at":56,"t":0},{"at":701,"t":34},{"at":1457,"t":79},{"at":2064,"t":114}],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T15:41:44.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://yt3.googleusercontent.com/4-w44catDebzaDSUWgereql0G5_z5o7VpJXuIYL_eZ3H1vXy0lTmrole9V500jTUXCnQPZ5CuKQ=s900-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj","handle":"@markets","id":"yt-UCIALMKvObZNtJ6AmdCLP7Lg","name":"Bloomberg Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Anthropic IPO Valuation Under Pressure After Tech Rout\n\nNow the tech route is placing pressure on Anthropic. Ahead of its IPO due before Thanksgiving, investors are discussing a valuation range of now 1,200,000,000,000 to 1,300,000,000,000 for the company. Let's discuss with Mandeep Singh of Bloomberg Intelligence. Mandeep, before all this started, the numbers were this was gonna be the biggest ever. Maybe it would be $2,000,000,000,000. To to what degree are are we seeing a rethink of Anthropic and its ability to not just IPO into the current market, but to IPO at the valuation that it wants? I think it'll be very hard for them to get that 2,000,000,000,000 number or even 1,500,000,000,000. And, you know, it should not surprise anyone that we are talking about a 25% reset here compared to where expectations were because all the high growth names, on the tech side have had a, you know, reset in valuation. So the good thing for Anthropic is the momentum is still pretty good in terms of monthly ARR. So the latest number was 80,000,000,000 ARR end of October. That equates to about 5,000,000,000 new ARR for the month of October. That's pretty healthy, and they could get to that 100,000,000,000 in ARR by the end of the year. And they are very well funded. So on both accounts, I would say they are in much better spot than someone like Neo Clouds where, you know, you are questioning their balance sheet. They don't have a problem like that. Let's do some scenario analysis as Dani likes to say, and I'm copying her. What if Anthropic doesn't go public this year? What would that mean for the AI trade and the broader markets? Because a lot of the optimism is hinged upon that record breaking Anthropic IPO that we may see. Yeah. That would definitely be a dooms like scenario, you know, if they decide to shelve the IPO and they don't go public. I mean, I expect them to even at a lower valuation like we were discussing, 1.2 to 1,300,000,000,000. But for them to kind of delay the IPO and not give a date, I I don't think it'll be a good outcome. Mandeep, thank you so much for joining us after... What a day yesterday.","textShort":"Anthropic IPO Valuation Under Pressure After Tech Rout\n\nNow the tech route is placing pressure on Anthropic. Ahead of its IPO due before Thanksgiving, investors are discussing a valuation range of now 1,200,000,000,000 to 1,300,000,000,000 for the company. Let's discuss with…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozd5ySBPLO8"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T13:46:52.590Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"6415b6a9-7988-4e38-b089-da1ec37966db","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["some of the AI position did dump without reaching my target and remain underwater"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Moose says some of their AI positions fell without reaching the target and remain underwater.","topic":"ai positions"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:NOW","confidence":0.6,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":101.52,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T13:46:20.607Z","headline":"Moose may re-enter NOW if AI keeps bouncing","id":"sig_567fcb0d214340788ee2f824","matched":["$NOW","might get this new entry in the folio","back on the menu"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"Moose may buy NOW again if AI keeps bouncing for a few more days, after selling it at $157 and seeing it below $100.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"NOW","tags":["re entry","ai stocks"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"aedd8f37-2190-4c21-a728-545e918e3094","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T13:45:41.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2001077543756034053/wIOsae_y_normal.jpg","handle":"@Brownmoose","id":"x-933330884626993152","name":"Moose","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"$NOW Alright few more days of AI bouncing and we might get this new entry in the folio.\n\nWe sold it at $157 and I wont lie I never thought we would be able to scoop back under 100 ever. \n\nShow you how the market is full of surprise and it give the advantage to those taking profit.\n\nSadly some of the AI position did dump without reaching my target and remain underwater but that's part of the game. \n\nThis one back on the menu is actually very exciting !\n\nQuoting their own post: Is that a green pre-market we are witnessing? https://t.co/e14L1MRZ4y","textShort":"$NOW Alright few more days of AI bouncing and we might get this new entry in the folio.\n\nWe sold it at $157 and I wont lie I never thought we would be able to scoop back under 100 ever. \n\nShow you how the market is full of surprise and it give the advantage to those taking…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/Brownmoose/status/2118701356613525504"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T13:04:43.623Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"3a66d853-257e-426c-9488-e7ac3c25b48a","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["worries me still","volume was really good yesterday","Now just need one on a green day"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The source is concerned about further downside but notes that yesterday's strong volume could help if it appears on a green day.","topic":"broad market outlook"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Apple and Microsoft hitting ATH’s"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source says Apple and Microsoft reaching all-time highs have helped support the index.","topic":"apple and microsoft"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:SP500","confidence":0.66,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":7363.35,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T13:04:00.957Z","headline":"Expects the S&P 500 to test its 200-day moving average","id":"sig_e7a472431d214914844ff052","matched":["$SPY bounce","too close to the 200dma to not touch it now"],"maxLeverage":50,"rationale":"The source expects the index to reach its 200-day average because it is too close to it, despite strong volume yesterday.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"SP500","tags":["equities","technical analysis","moving average"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"3f93d0fb-946f-4c15-b82b-991c9edc6d16","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T13:03:35.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1648535580870078465/OtGyTOWY_normal.jpg","handle":"@Mr_Derivatives","id":"x-958217615545049090","name":"Heisenberg","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"The $SPY bounce so far in premarket is just aiiiight.\n\nHere’s the thing that worries me still, just a tiny bit…\n\n1) RSI hasn’t hit oversold yet.\n\n2) We are too close to the 200dma to not touch it now. You know, self fulfilling prophecy. \n\n3) If it wasn’t for Apple and Microsoft hitting ATH’s, the index would be down at least 3-4% more from current levels. \n\nHowever with that said, volume was really good yesterday. We like high volume days. Now just need one on a green day.","textShort":"The $SPY bounce so far in premarket is just aiiiight.\n\nHere’s the thing that worries me still, just a tiny bit…\n\n1) RSI hasn’t hit oversold yet.\n\n2) We are too close to the 200dma to not touch it now. You know, self fulfilling prophecy. \n\n3) If it wasn’t for Apple and…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/Mr_Derivatives/status/2118690761575473656"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T12:49:51.570Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"cd555c58-f7f2-4859-91f1-f4ae816bc501","observations":[{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["HIGH-QUALITY AI NAMES LIKE NVIDIA, ETC., THIS IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY","THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR SOME OF THESE STOCKS REMAIN VERY STRONG."],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Investors described the pullback as a buying opportunity for high-quality AI names because they believe the fundamentals remain strong.","topic":"ai stocks"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["THE SELLOFF IN EQUITY SHOWING SIGNS OF EASING","ASIA DEFINITELY HAD A TOUGH NIGHT.","EUROPE IS STILL DOWN."],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The selloff showed tentative signs of easing in U.S. futures even as Asian and European markets remained weak.","topic":"global equity markets"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["CONCERNS AROUND THE POTENTIAL SLOWDOWN IN THE AI DATA CENTER BUILDOUT"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Concern that the AI data-center buildout may slow was cited as a factor weighing on markets.","topic":"ai data center investment"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["EXPECTATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INTEREST RATE HIKES CONTINUING TO FADE."],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Expectations for additional interest-rate hikes were continuing to fade.","topic":"rate hike expectations"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["DRAFTKINGS DOWN AROUND 20%.","THEY HAVE HAD SOME CUTS TO THEIR FORWARD GUIDANCE."],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"DraftKings shares fell after the company missed earnings expectations and cut forward guidance.","topic":"draftkings"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["MSCI ASIA DOWN ABOUT 4%.","THE NIKKEI 225 AND TAIEX INDEX SLUMPING INTO BEAR MARKET TERRITORY","THE KOSPI INDEX DOWN ABOUT 6%"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Asian shares fell sharply, with major regional indexes entering bear-market territory or posting steep losses.","topic":"asian equities"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["UP AROUND 11%, 12% THIS MORNING.","AIRBNB IS BACK IN GROWTH MODE."],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Airbnb shares rose sharply in premarket trading, with the report describing the company as returning to growth mode.","topic":"airbnb"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["BOND YIELDS GENERALLY FALLING","THE GERMAN TWO YEAR BOND YIELD IS DOWN ABOUT TWO BASIS POINTS.","ITALIAN 10 YEAR BOND YIELD DOWN EVEN MORE."],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Bond yields were generally falling in Europe, including German two-year and Italian ten-year yields.","topic":"european bond yields"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:XYZ100","confidence":0.72,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":3,"entryPx":27010.5,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T12:49:33.049Z","headline":"A guest expects the Nasdaq to rebound toward its 200-day average","id":"sig_8bfb8eeebccb4cd58d388286","matched":["YOU WILL SEE A SNAP BACK TOWARDS THAT 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE"],"maxLeverage":30,"rationale":"The guest expects dip-buying to lift the Nasdaq back toward its 200-day average after the selloff.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"XYZ100","tags":["nasdaq","dip buying","technical rebound"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"eaf3a29d-9da3-48db-9ccd-af728e8e9501","marks":[{"at":66,"t":0},{"at":327,"t":30},{"at":733,"t":65},{"at":1587,"t":126},{"at":2086,"t":160},{"at":2590,"t":198},{"at":3129,"t":239},{"at":3673,"t":279},{"at":4132,"t":314},{"at":4547,"t":348},{"at":5013,"t":387},{"at":5524,"t":424},{"at":6146,"t":463},{"at":6721,"t":508},{"at":7244,"t":543},{"at":7762,"t":577},{"at":8373,"t":617},{"at":8984,"t":654},{"at":9364,"t":687},{"at":9960,"t":732},{"at":10395,"t":768},{"at":10969,"t":807},{"at":11521,"t":846},{"at":12054,"t":886},{"at":12632,"t":942},{"at":12896,"t":975},{"at":13280,"t":1009},{"at":13724,"t":1039},{"at":14500,"t":1102},{"at":15122,"t":1148},{"at":15512,"t":1179},{"at":15977,"t":1214},{"at":16284,"t":1246},{"at":16696,"t":1284},{"at":17192,"t":1325},{"at":17749,"t":1368},{"at":18131,"t":1406},{"at":18484,"t":1437},{"at":18914,"t":1468},{"at":19422,"t":1499},{"at":19873,"t":1533},{"at":20423,"t":1572},{"at":20845,"t":1604},{"at":21172,"t":1637},{"at":21655,"t":1686},{"at":22269,"t":1726},{"at":22681,"t":1762},{"at":23239,"t":1799},{"at":23900,"t":1843},{"at":24462,"t":1877},{"at":25236,"t":1925},{"at":25880,"t":1965},{"at":26520,"t":2009},{"at":26976,"t":2044},{"at":27532,"t":2084},{"at":28037,"t":2119},{"at":28340,"t":2154},{"at":28818,"t":2191},{"at":29123,"t":2224},{"at":29704,"t":2269},{"at":30175,"t":2302},{"at":31161,"t":2361},{"at":31954,"t":2414},{"at":32566,"t":2459},{"at":33066,"t":2494},{"at":33295,"t":2525},{"at":33672,"t":2555},{"at":34187,"t":2586}],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T12:45:31.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://yt3.googleusercontent.com/4-w44catDebzaDSUWgereql0G5_z5o7VpJXuIYL_eZ3H1vXy0lTmrole9V500jTUXCnQPZ5CuKQ=s900-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj","handle":"@markets","id":"yt-UCIALMKvObZNtJ6AmdCLP7Lg","name":"Bloomberg Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Stocks Selloff Pauses Rebound After Tech Rout; Jobs Report Ahead\n\n♪ >> GOOD MORNING. I AM GUY JOHNSON YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. WHAT DO YOU NEED TO KNOW? THE SELLOFF IN EQUITY SHOWING SIGNS OF EASING PARTICULARLY IN THE U.S. AFTER THE S&P STEEPEST DROP IN A YEAR YESTERDAY. ASIA DEFINITELY HAD A TOUGH NIGHT. EUROPE IS STILL DOWN. PRESIDENT TRUMP BLAMING DEMOCRATS FOR THE MARKET LOSSES AFTER THE PARTY'S VICTORY IN THIS WEEK'S MIDTERM ELECTIONS. IT'S JOBS THAT IN THE USA. EXPECTATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INTEREST RATE HIKES CONTINUING TO FADE. IT HAS BEEN A MASSIVE FEW DAYS FOR MARKETS. LET'S TRACK THE LATEST ACTION AND FIGURE OUT WHAT'S GOING ON. THERE. WINNIE: IT HAS BEEN SUCH A BRUTAL SELLOFF IN ASIA TODAY. MSCI ASIA DOWN ABOUT 4%. HAVING HIS WORST DAY SINCE APRIL LAST YEAR. IT IS ABOUT THE CONCERNS AROUND THE POTENTIAL SLOWDOWN IN THE AI DATA CENTER BUILDOUT BUT ALSO A POSITIONING UNWINDING, DELEVERAGING REALLY HAPPENING VERY FAST. IT IS REALLY AMPLIFYING THE VOLATILITY WE ARE SEEING IN THE REGION. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE NIKKEI 225 AND TAIEX INDEX SLUMPING INTO BEAR MARKET TERRITORY, AS WELL AS THE KOSPI INDEX DOWN ABOUT 6%. THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES HAVE BEEN STEPPING UP THEIR MEASURES TO STABILIZE THE MARKET. THAT IS NOT JUST IN KOREA BUT ALSO IN TAIWAN. JUST IN THE FATE -- PAST FEW MINUTES, THE NATIONAL FRONT IS POTENTIALLY CONSIDERING STEPPING IN WITH THESE MARKET STABILIZATION METHODS TO HELP SUPPORT THE MARKET. BEFORE WE LOOK AT SOME OF THE BRIGHTER SPOTS IN THE MARKET, WE ARE SEEING MONEY ROTATING INTO THE LIKES OF INDIAN STOCKS GIVEN THAT THEY LACK THE AI EXPOSURE. PLUS, THEY HAVE VALUATION COMING DOWN QUITE SHARPLY. INVESTORS ARE ALSO LOOKING AT JAPAN AS WELL AS CHINA. LOOKING AT THE 10 YEAR CHINESE BOND YIELD ACTUALLY HITTING FRESH INTRADAY RECORD LOWS AS WELL. GUY: OK, THANK YOU. LET'S FIGURE OUT WHAT THE EUROPEAN PICTURE LOOKS LIKE. JUSTINA LEE, WHAT DO YOU GOT? JUSTINA: HAPPY FRIDAY, EVEN THOUGH WE ALL WISH THAT WEEKEND ALREADY STARTED. WE HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF DECLINES FOR EUROPE. SOME OF THIS IS CATCHING UP WITH THE LOSSES OVERNIGHT IN U.S. MARKETS. WHAT I FIND INTERESTING ABOUT THE MOVES IN EUROPE TODAY IS STABILIZATION. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SWISS MARKET INDEX WHICH IS ACTUALLY FILLED WITH MORE DEFENSIVE SECTORS SUCH AS HEALTH CARE AND CONSUMER STAPLES IS ACTUALLY DOWN A LITTLE BIT MORE. MAYBE THAT SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF ROTATION INTERESTINGLY AWAY FROM DEFENSIVES AND BACK INTO CYCLICALS. IF WE FLIP THE BOARD AND LOOK AT WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH CURRENCY AND BOND MARKETS, IT IS A BIT OF A CLASSIC RISK OFF DAY WITH BOND YIELDS GENERALLY FALLING. THE GERMAN TWO YEAR BOND YIELD IS DOWN ABOUT TWO BASIS POINTS. ITALIAN 10 YEAR BOND YIELD DOWN EVEN MORE. A LITTLE BIT OF PERIPHERAL SPREAD TIGHTENING. OF COURSE, INITIALLY, THE DOLLAR WAS WEAKENING AFTER THE U.S. ELECTION BUT TODAY IT IS UP AMID A GENERALLY RISK OFF MOOD. SO, WE ARE SEEING DECLINES ACROSS POUND STERLING AND THE EURO. GUY: QUITE A DIFFERENT PICTURE EMERGING IN THE U.S. IN EUROPE, TECH IS DOING OK, EVERYTHING ELSE BEING SOLD. IN SOME WAYS, THAT IS BEING AMPLIFIED IN THE UNITED STATES. TECH IS COMING BACK FAIRLY HARD. YOU CAN SEE WHAT WE ARE BASICALLY GETTING IS A REAL PICKUP IN THE NASDAQ IN PARTICULAR. I HAVE BEEN TRACKING IT ALL MORNING. S&P FUTURES HAVE ALSO TURNED POSITIVE. WHEN I GOT UP THIS MORNING, THEY WERE NEGATIVE. WTI IS DOWN. THERE IS MORE POSITIVE NEWS COMING OUT OF THE GULF. WE WILL COME BACK TO THAT LATER. UP TO .3% ON THE S&P. EUROPE BASICALLY GETTING EVERYTHING OTHER THAN TECH. THE UNITED STATES WISHES AT THE EDGE MARKET THIS MORNING. WE ARE SEEING THAT TECH TRADE COMING BACK. LET'S TALK ABOUT SOME SINGLE NAMES. ALEX MORGAN HAS MORE. ALEX: A BRIEF REVIEW. WE COULD FILL THE SHOW TALK ABOUT THIS. WHAT SEEMS TO BE THAT ROUT EASING. THE BIG QUESTION, WAS THIS A SETBACK OR A PULLBACK? THAT IS THE QUESTION PEOPLE WILL BE LEFT WITH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WE ARE SEEING THAT ROUT PAUSING, PERHAPS A BUYING THE DIFFERENT NAMES LIKE NVIDIA, SPACEX, MICRON. AMD IN THE GREEN PREMARKET TODAY. INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SESSION. LET'S LOOK AT OTHER STOCK STORIES THIS MORNING. DRAFTKINGS DOWN AROUND 20%. THEY HAVE HAD SOME CUTS TO THEIR FORWARD GUIDANCE. DOWN ABOUT 20%. AIRBNB FLIPPING IT OVER. THINKING ABOUT HOLIDAYS AND LETTING THE ONLINE TRAVEL BOOKING PORTAL. UP AROUND 11%, 12% THIS MORNING. THAT IS SOME GROWTH MODE ENERGY. THE CEO SAYING THE COMPANY IS VERY MUCH ON THE TRAJECTORY. GIVING THEM A BOOST IN THE GREEN BEFORE THE MARKETS OPEN. GUY: GREAT STUFF. WE CAN TALK ABOUT TECH. WE WILL GET A LOT OF ANALYSIS ON THAT THROUGHOUT THE SHOW AND IT IS PAYROLLS DAY IN THE UNITED STATES. ABIGAIL WATT FROM UBS WILL BE JOINING US LATER ON. THE AI STORY IS THIS MORNING FRONT AND CENTER. AND THE CORE GROUP, THE HEART OF THE AI BOOM HAS CERTAINLY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BEEN HIT THE HARDEST. $3 TRILLION HAS BEEN WIPED FROM THE S&P 500. JOINING US TO FIGURE OUT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IS BLOOMBERG'S -- AND GP BARNETT TO GIVE US A SENSE OF WHAT'S HAPPENING. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE PRICE ACTION THIS MORNING? TECH SEEMS TO BE COMING BACK A LITTLE BIT. IN EUROPE, WE SEE THE SAFETY TRADE BEING SOLD. IT SEEMS LIKE WE ARE IN A SITUATION WHERE THE SELLING IN EUROPE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE INDISCRIMINATE. IS THIS A LIQUIDATION EVENT? >> THAT'S INTERESTING. I AM NOT SURE IF I WOULD GO AS FAR TO SAY IT IS A LIQUIDATION EVENT. THE NOTION IS YOU DON'T WANT TO OWN EQUITY AS RISK THIS MOMENT. THE MOVE YESTERDAY WAS BRUTAL ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE U.S. OPEN. THAT IS SOMETHING WE DON'T SEE VERY OFTEN WITH ALL THAT VOLUME SQUEEZED INTO A TIME FRAME. OVER THE PAST MONTH OR SO, EUROPE WAS ALWAYS THE BENEFICIARY OF THAT ROTATION AND THE FIRM BID IN THE MARKET. BY THE CLOSE OF YESTERDAY, 11 OF THE 20 EUROPEAN SECTORS HAVE BEEN OVERBOUGHT. THAT IS KIND OF A NOTION OF IF YOU WANT TO GO DEFENSIVE, THEN YOU ARE BUYING VERY EXPENSIVE DEFENSIVES. IT IS NOT REALLY MAKES SENSE. IF YOU REALLY WANT TO GO DEFENSIVE NOW, THE ONLY OPTION YOU HAVE IS SELL EVERYTHING AND GO INTO SOMETHING ELSE YOU LIKE, LIKE TREASURIES OR GOLD, BUT GOLD HAS NOT BEEN A GOOD HEDGE THE LAST TWO YEARS ANYWAY. GUY: DIPPING AROUND ALL OVER THE PLACE. A COUPLE OF HEADLINES THAT STANDS OUT. ONE, THE TAIWAN NATIONAL FUND TO ACTIVATE MARKET STABILIZATION MEASURES. WE ARE SEEING EFFECTIVELY A GOVERNMENT BACKING TRYING TO STABILIZE THE MARKET IN ASIA. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TALK OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ABOUT WORLD. IT WAS EVEN SUGGESTED IN THE UNITED STATES. WHAT DO I MAKE OF THE BOUNCE BACK THIS MORNING? ARE PEOPLE BUYING TECH BECAUSE IT IS NOW CHEAP? WHAT HAVE YOU HEARD IN TERMS OF WHY YOU WOULD STEP IN? THE PARTICULAR NAMES THAT HAVE BEEN BOUGHT ARE DOING RELATIVELY WELL TODAY. >> YESTERDAY, WE SAW MOST OF THE MAJOR AVERAGES BREAK KEY TECHNICAL SUPPORT LEVELS. THE NASDAQ DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. I THINK THERE IS ELEMENT OF DIP BUYING, AND YOU WILL SEE A SNAP BACK TOWARDS THAT 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE. THE COMMENTARY HAVE HEARD FROM INVESTORS IS A LOT OF HIGH-QUALITY AI NAMES LIKE NVIDIA, ETC., THIS IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY. THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR SOME OF THESE STOCKS REMAIN VERY STRONG. THIS IS A PULLBACK WHERE YOU CAN FUNDAMENTALS. GUY: NVIDIA NUMBERS, WE STILL HAVE NOT HAD THE QUARTERLY REPORT YET. WHAT ARE THE NEXT OBVIOUS CATALYSTS THAT COULD REJUVENATE THAT SIDE OF THE MARKET? RUHELL: WE ARE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF EARNINGS SEASON. A LOT OF SINGLE STOCK CATALYST HAVE COME UP. WITH NVIDIA, A LOT OF THE NEWS BEING PRICED IN GIVEN THE READER CROSS FROM SOME OF THEIR PEERS. WE'VE GOT THE MACRO CATALYST TODAY IN TERMS OF THE JOBS NUMBERS. INCREASINGLY, THE MARKET WILL LOOK FORWARD IN TERMS OF THE REGULATORY RISK AROUND AI AND WITH THE DEMOCRATS MIGHT DO. THAT IS WHAT WILL BE THE FOCUS GOING FORWARD. GUY: OK. J.P., WHAT ARE YOU HEARING IN TERMS OF WHAT'S GOING ON WITH SOME OF THE TRADING DESKS? ALL KINDS OF RUMORS SWIRLING AROUND WITH THE HEDGE FUNDS ARE GOING THROUGH. HOW MUCH OF THAT IS PLAYING INTO THIS MARKET THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF A NERVOUSNESS GOING INTO A WEEKEND AND HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL PLAY INTO HOW TRADING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF THE DAY? >> I LOOK AT THE DIFFERENT HEDGE AT THIS POINT. THERE IS THE NOTION THAT THEY ALSO NEED TO DO RISK AND KEEP THE RISK MANAGEMENT IN CHECK, BUT WE HAVE ALSO SEEN IN OCTOBER, THEY HAVE ALREADY REDUCED A LOT OF EXPOSURE, A LOT OF LEVERAGE IN THEIR PORTFOLIOS. ESPECIALLY IN THE TECH CORNER AND SOME OF THE TRADES THEY HAVE LOVE THE LAST TWO YEARS. THEY HAVE BUILT SOME OF THE SHORT POSITIONS THAT EVEN ONE TRADING DESK WAS PUTTING A NOTION OF A RISK OF A SHORT SQUEEZE OF THE MARKET GOES UP. I AM NOT SURE IF THE HEDGE FUND HAS A BROADER METRIC. MIGHT BE INDIVIDUAL FUNDS UNDER MORE STRESS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE NUMBERS I HAVE SEEN HIM OF THEY ARE NOT FALLING AS MUCH AS THE MARKET IS FALLING BECAUSE OF THE DELEVERAGING THAT HAS HAPPENED OVER THE PAST TWO TO THREE YEARS. DOESN'T MEAN THEY HAVE ENOUGH ROOM AND THE WILLINGNESS TO GO BACK IN RIGHT NOW? I AM NOT SO SURE. IT SEEMS LIKE THE MANAGEMENT IS SHORT CAREFULLY. I WOULD SAY THE NOTION AMONG HEDGE FUNDS IS ALSO THAT THEY HAD A GOOD FUN THE LAST TWO YEARS WITH THE AI TRADE AND BE A MORE CAUTIOUS ABOUT HOW ALL THE POLITICS, ETC. GUY: SO, CONSIDERING YEAR END IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY NOW, WILL THEY REPRICE IT TO YEAR-END? IS THERE MORE LEVERAGE INTO WHAT STILL FEELS LIKE A VERY WOULD BE MARKET? >> THE THING IS STUFF LOOKS NOW CHEAPER ON PAPER BUT THE QUESTION IS FROM A FUNDAMENTAL PERSPECTIVE, FROM A STORYTELLING PERSPECTIVE, NOBODY REALLY KNOWS IF IT IS REALLY CHEAP. THE QUESTION IS THE SEASONALITY IS ALWAYS IN FAVOR. I BET THE MOMENT THE MARKET STARTS MOVING TO THE UPSIDE, EVERYONE FEELS LIKE I DON'T HAVE ENOUGH AND YOU WANT TO JUMP IN. I AM NOT SURE IF IT IS LIKE THIS BROUGHT OPTIMISM INTO YEAR-END. SOME MIGHT HAVE STILL SEEN LAST WEEK. I THINK THAT NEEDS A NEW TAKE ANY NEW CONSIDERATION BECAUSE IT SEASONALITY. GUY: THERE'S A LOT OF UNKNOWNS OUT THERE. ONE BEING TALKED ABOUT. THE WASHINGTON POST SAYING THE DEMOCRATS WILL TARGET APPLE, META AND MUSK COMPANIES. IS THERE ANY SENSE, OBVIOUS SENSE OF WHAT COMES NEXT? RUHELL: AS I MENTIONED EARLIER ON IN THE OPENING TRADE, TEXAS IS THE FLASHPOINT. THE LARGEST PROPORTION OF DATA CENTERS ARE IN TEXAS. THERE'S A BIG PIPELINE, VERY EARLY STAGE. THEY CAN'T BE STOPPED. IT IS REALLY AROUND THE GROWTH RATE THAT IS PRICED INTO SOME OF THE COMPANY AND THEIR FORECASTS. THEY WERE REALLY PRICE TO PERFECTION GOING INTO THE MIDTERMS. WASHER START TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A SLOW DOWN THE GROWTH RATE, THAT IMPACTS THE MULTIPLES, THE VALUATION MULTIPLES AND INVESTORS START TO REASSESS HOW MUCH ARE THESE COMPANIES REALLY WORTH? GUY: SOMEBODY DESCRIBED IT TO ME AS THE AI TRADE IS A SHARP. IF YOU KEEP SWIMMING, IT IS FINE BUT ANY KIND OF STALL CAN BE REALLY TERMINAL. IS THAT THE RIGHT WAY OF THINKING ABOUT THIS? BECAUSE EVERYBODY KEEPS -- THE EXPECTATION JUST GETS BIGGER AND BETTER, EVERYBODY WANTS TO BE IN BUT AS SOON AS -- IT STARTS TO SLOW. MAYBE IT IS THE SECOND DERIVATIVE AND THE TRADE GETS REASSESSED IN A DIFFERENT WAY. RUHELL: THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF MOMENTUM AROUND AI THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. NEW DEVELOPMENTS. BUT WE KNOW THERE ARE BOTTLENECKS IN PLACE. DATA CENTERS COULD BE THE NEXT BOTTLENECK. FINANCING HAS EMERGED AS A BOTTLENECK. AGAIN, WITH THESE COMPETING DYNAMICS, I THINK THERE'S A REASSESSMENT GOING ON IN TERMS OF HOW FAST THESE COMPANIES CAN GROW BUT ALSO WITHIN THE AI TRADE, THERE IS A SPLIT AS WELL IN TERMS OF THE HYPERSCALERS AND SOME OF THE DATA CENTER COMPANIES. THERE'S A REAL MIX OF FACTORS GOING ON. BENEFICIARIES. GUYS, THANK YOU VERY MUCH INDEED. GIVING US THE TAKE ON WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THESE MARKETS. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE OTHER TOP STORIES THAT ARE TRENDING THIS MORNING. ING IS LOOKING TO SELL ROUGHLY $500 MILLION OF DATA CENTER LOANS AS DEMOCRATIC IN WASHINGTON RAISES FEARS THAT MANY SUCH PROJECTS COULD BE STALLED. PEOPLE FAMILIAR TELLING BLOOMBERG ING IS TAKING OFFERS FOR A DOZEN LOANS INCLUDING A 25 MILLION NOTE BACKING A DATA CENTER THAT IS PART OF THE OPENAI STARGATE PROJECT. ING DECLINED TO COMMENT. ECB PRESIDENT CHRISTINE LAGARDE IS ENTERING A NEW PHASE WITH THE NOMINATIONS DUE AT 11:00 A.M. SPAIN AND THE NETHERLANDS ARE SIGNALING PLANS TO PROPOSE A STILL EMERGE. LAGARDE IS A LATE ENTRY INTO THE RACE. SHE IS SET TO LEAVE THE ECB ON FEBRUARY 7. THE HIJACKERS THAT STOLE SIX POINT $3 BILLION OF MINE IS LAST WEEK PAY JUST $15 TO TAKE -- THE HACKERS PAID THE FEE -- THIS ACCORDING TO THE SECURITY FIRM BLOCKADE. WHAT WE HAVE COMING UP FOR YOU, 15 MINUTES PAST THE HOUR, PRESIDENT TRUMP BLAMING THE DEMOCRATS FOR THE SELLOFF. MORE ON THAT STORY NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> 5:17 A.M., THIS IS BOOMER GRIEF. I AM GUY JOHNSON. FUTURES HAVE COME BACK NICELY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. TECH IS TRADING WELL IN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES. EVERYTHING ELSE IN EUROPE IS GETTING SOLD. S&P FUTURES ARE UP 3/10 OF 1%. BOY WAS YESTERDAY BRUTAL. CRUDE IS DOWN. DOWN BY 7/10 OF 1%. ONE MORE BOARD TO SHOW YOU, THIS WAS THE CLOSED YESTERDAY IN THE UNITED STATES. FOR CONTEXT, JUST SHOWING YOU THIS FOR CONTEXT BECAUSE IT OBVIOUSLY WAS BRUTAL YESTERDAY. THE MARKET, THE S&P DOWN BY FOUR POINT 3%. THE NASDAQ DOWN BY 6.3%. CHIPS HAD A BAD DAY. THEY ARE COMING BACK A LITTLE BIT TODAY. BUT ONLY A LITTLE BIT. TO BE HONEST, IT WAS NO SURPRISE WE SAW PRESIDENT TRUMP POINTING THE FINGER AT DEMOCRATS FOR THE LOSSES. HE TOOK TO TRUTH SOCIAL TO CALL BE SELLOFF A SAD THING TO WATCH. JOINING US NOW, BLOOMBERG'S SENIOR WRITER, STEPHANIE BAKER TO GET HER TAKE ON ALL OF THIS. I'M CURIOUS ABOUT THIS SELLOFF AND HOW IT IS RESONATING IN WASHINGTON AND AROUND THE COUNTRY. PRESIDENT TRUMP USES THE S&P AS A KEY METRIC FOR HIS SUCCESS. IT GOT SOLD OFF YESTERDAY. HE'S BLAMING THE DEMOCRATS FOR THAT. DO THE DEMOCRATS CARE? I APPRECIATE A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE 401(K)S BUT IT ISN'T THEIR METRIC. IS HE TALKING TO THE WRONG CONSTITUENCY ONCE AGAIN? STEPHANIE: WELL, YOU KNOW, THERE IS A CERTAIN ELEMENT OF TRUTH TO THAT ARGUMENT. SO MANY PEOPLE HAVE MONEY INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET, THROUGH THEIR 401(K)S AND THEIR RETIREMENT PLANS THAT HE'S TRYING TO REMIND PEOPLE HEY, I'M GOOD FOR THE MARKETS, WHATEVER YOU MIGHT THINK OF ME ON OTHER ISSUES. SO, I'M NOT SO SURE IT'S NOT A CONCERN FOR DEMOCRATS BECAUSE IT IS A CONCERN FOR SO MANY BROADER VOTERS. BUT THE BIGGER ISSUES ARE INFLATION AND POCKETBOOK ISSUES LIKE THE COST OF PETROL AND DIESEL. I THINK THOSE ARE PROBABLY MORE IMPORTANT FOR A BIGGER NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAN A DROP IN THE STOCK MARKET THAT MIGHT GET THEIR 401(K)S IN THE NEAR TERM. WE DON'T KNOW WHERE THIS IS GOING. GUY: I HEAR WHAT YOU ARE SAYING ABOUT THE 401(K). BUT FOR THE BROADER POPULATION ECONOMICALLY, THE 401(K) ARGUMENT DOES NOT RESONATE IN THE SAME WAY. THIS IS THE ISSUE, ISN'T IT? THAT THE LAST FEW YEARS HAS BEEN DRIBBLED -- DRIVEN BY PEOPLE WHO HAVE STOCKS AND OUR ASSET OWNERS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF PEOPLE IN AMERICA THAT DON'T. THAT'S WHERE I AM SAYING IS HE TALKING TO THE WRONG PEOPLE? IF REPUBLICANS WANT TO GET BACK ON TRACK, DON'T THEY NEED TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO MESSAGE BETTER TO THOSE AT THE BOTTOM END OF THE ECONOMIC SCALE? STEPHANIE: ABSOLUTELY. THIS IS NOT AN ARGUMENT BY TRUMP THAT WILL HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE KEY PART OF HIS BASE, WHICH IS WHITE WORKING-CLASS VOTERS, WHO PROBABLY DON'T HAVE MONEY INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET AND OUR FARM MARKS EXPOSED TO INFLATION AND THE RISING COST OF GASOLINE AND DIESEL. HE'S SPEAKING TO A CONSTITUENCY THAT VOTED FOR THE DEMOCRATS RATHER THAN THAT IS PART OF HIS BASE. AND, YOU KNOW, THE REPUBLICANS NEED TO COME UP WITH A STRATEGY THAT IS ADDRESSING THOSE REAL CONCERNS ON HEALTH CARE, INFLATION, COST OF ENERGY. THAT IS THE MESSAGE THAT HE NEEDS TO BE HAMMERING OUT. AND IN MANY RESPECTS, IT'S A SIGN OF DESPERATION. HE'S TRYING TO FIND SOME GLIMMER OF HOPE HERE. GUY: APPRECIATE THE UPDATE AND YOUR THOUGHTS. THANK YOU VERY MUCH INDEED. STEPHANIE BLOOMBERG, -- STEPHANIE BAKER, BLOOMBERG'S STEPHANIE BAKER. IT IS 5:22 IN NEW YORK. THIS IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF. I AM GUY JOHNSON. ♪ GUY: STOCKS GOT BATTERED YESTERDAY. GOOD MORNING, FOLKS. 5:25 AM TODAY, THEY COME BACK A LITTLE BIT. THE S&P AND NASDAQ FUTURES, NASDAQ FUTURES LOOKING QUITE POSITIVE. YOU NEED TO SEE THIS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SCALE OF THE LOSSES WE HAD YESTERDAY. WTI IS DOWN. WHAT'S HAPPENING IN TERMS OF THE NEWSPAPER HEADLINES, LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT WHAT THE FRONT PAGES LOOK LIKE. NEW YORK TIMES REPORTING AROUND IS REVIEWING A SET OF PROPOSALS FROM MEDIATORS. UP NEXT, THE WASHINGTON POST, A FEDERAL JUDGE HALTED THE CONSTRUCTION OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S PLANNED ARCH. IN THE JOURNAL IS LEAVING ON THIS STORY. ANTHROPIC'S IPO, WHILE TWO MAJOR INVESTORS ARE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE VALUATION. TODAY IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER. IT'S 5:30 A.M. IN NEW YORK AND 10:30 IN LONDON. THIS IS THE BRIEF. WHAT DO YOU NEED TO KNOW? THE SELLOFF IS TENTATIVELY SHOWING SIGNS OF EASING. S&P FUTURES ARE UP. WE GOT BATTERED YESTERDAY. ASIA HAD A TOUGH NIGHT. EUROPE IS MIXED. WE ARE BUYING TECH AND SELLING EVERYTHING ELSE. WE ARE DOWN. PRESIDENT TRUMP BLAMED DEMOCRATS FOR THE LOSSES AFTER THE PARTY'S VICTORY IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. EXPECTATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INTEREST RATE HIKES CONTINUING TO FADE. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE MARKETS. THAT'S THE IMPORTANT THING THIS MORNING. S&P FUTURES CRAWLING BACK. WE ARE UP 3/10 OF 1%. THE NASDAQ HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY UP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE U.S. SESSION. AND WHAT WE ARE SEEING THERE IS A BIT OF TENTATIVE BUYING. WE HAVE TECH DOING WELL. WHAT YOU ARE ACTUALLY SEEING IS A SELLOFF EVERYWHERE ELSE. CRUDE IS DOWN. IT'S BEGINNING TO COME BACK UP A LITTLE BIT. POSITIVE NEWS COMING OUT OF THE GULF A LITTLE EARLY. LET'S FIGURE OUT WHERE WE ARE PAYING ATTENTION. ALEX MORGAN WITH THE DETAILS. >> TENTATIVE RELIEF FROM THE ROUTE WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE BIG NAMES. NVIDIA, SPACEX, MICRON AND AMD ARE UP. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THEM THROUGH THE DAY AFTER A BRUTAL TIME FOLLOWING THE MIDTERMS. LET'S FLIP THE BOARD IN TERMS OF SPORTS BETTING. DRAFTKINGS IS DOWN OVER 20%. GUIDANCE MISSED ESTIMATES. THEY HAVE CLAWED BACK ON SOME GUIDANCE FOR THIS YEAR AS WELL IN FISCAL 2026. THAT IS PUTTING THE SPORTS SITE DOWN AND IN THE RED. AIRBNB IS BACK IN GROWTH MODE. THAT HAS GIVEN THEM -- THAT HAS GOTTEN THEM UP AROUND 12% PREMARKET. GUY: AIR BED AND BREAKFAST. MAYBE THAT'S HOW THE MARKET IS FEELING THIS MORNING. OK. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING. TENTATIVE DIP BUYING THIS MORNING. NASDAQ IS UP BUT IT GOT HAMMERED YESTERDAY. THE SEMI CONDUCTOR INDEX GOT HAMMERED YESTERDAY. LET'S GET SOME ANALYSIS ON WHERE THINGS STAND THIS MORNING. MATT BLOXHAM OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE IS NEXT TO ME. JB ALSO JOINING ME. MATT, LET'S START WITH YOU. THERE ARE EARLY SIGNS PEOPLE WANT TO GET BACK INTO TECH THIS MORNING. WHAT'S THE DEGREE OF CERTAINTY? I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THIS NEW CONGRESS IS GOING TO DO. IS IT -- CAN WE PLACE SOME OF THESE TECH TRADES AT THE MOMENT? IS IT EASY TO GET YOUR ARMS AROUND THE NARRATIVE? MATT: I DON'T THINK SO. IF YOU LOOK BACK OVER THE LAST YEAR OR SO, IT'S NOT BEEN EASY TO PRICE. SO I THINK THAT'S WHY WE ARE SEEING SUCH VOLATILITY IN THE MARKETS. WE SAW THEM AHEAD OF THE MIDTERMS. WE ARE SEEING IT NOW. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. MY SENSE WOULD BE AS MUCH AS THE DEMOCRATS WANT TO TAKE A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO CAPACITY BUILDOUT, WE WILL SEE CAPACITY BUILDOUT BECAUSE THEY WANT TO SUPPORT ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SEE THE U.S. REMAIN STRONG. I THINK IT WOULD BE A BIT MORE BALANCED. THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR OTHER STATES TO STEP IN. THERE ARE LOTS OF PADS WE COULD FOLLOW. GUY: BUT A SLOWER RATE. >> I THINK THAT IS FAIR. WE ALSO HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS A DISCONNECT BETWEEN HOW THE MARKET REACTS TO THINGS AND WHAT HAPPENS IN REAL LIFE IN TERMS OF THE PACE CAPACITY DELIVERS. WE HAVE HEARD FROM PROVIDERS THAT THEY ARE SOLD OUT THROUGH THE END OF 2027, PERHAPS INTO 2020 EIGHT. A LOT OF THE DATA CENTER CAPACITY IS ALREADY BOUGHT AND EVERYBODY KNOWS WHERE IT IS GOING. IT MIGHT BE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE YOU SEE SOME OF THE IMPACTS OF THE SLOWER CAPACITY BUILDOUT FLOW THROUGH. GUY: IT IS STILL ON FOR NOW BUT THIS IS A MARKET THAT NEEDS MOMENTUM. DOES THAT SOUND LIKE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO GET THE TECH TRADE BACK ON TRACK? OBVIOUSLY, THERE HAS BEEN A HUGE MOMENTUM TRADE OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS. HAVE WE REACHED THE POINT WHERE IT IS GOING TO BE A STRUGGLE TO KIND OF SEE THAT KIND OF ACCELERATION, THAT MOMENTUM IN THIS MARKET? >> WELL, I WOULD SAY YES FOR TWO REASONS. OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS, THERE WAS ALWAYS THIS NOTION OF NOT OWNING ENOUGH AI AND I THINK THAT HAS DEFINITELY CHANGED, DESPITE THE OPEN QUESTION MARKS AND THE CRITICS ON HOW SUSTAINABLE THIS IS GOING TO BE. THAT'S ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND. THE OTHER ONE IS WHEN YOU HAVE SUCH A BRUTAL ROUTE LIKE YESTERDAY, IT -- ROUND LIKE YESTERDAY, THAT TRIGGERS A LOT OF MANAGEMENT EXERCISE. IT'S NOT EASY TO SHRUG THIS OFF AND GO BACK IN. THEY NEED A MORE MODERATE APPROACH. THIS NOTION OF LIKE LET'S BUY THE DIP AGAIN, IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN THIS TIME. GUY: TECH HAS DONE OK AND IT'S EVERYTHING ELSE THAT'S BEING SOLD TODAY. ARE. I CAN GET MY HEAD AROUND SELLING TECH BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SELLING THINGS LIKE NESTLE. WHAT DOES THAT TELL US ABOUT WHERE POSITIONING IS RIGHT NOW? >> ABSOLUTELY. IT IS COUNTERINTUITIVE. EUROPE HAS BEEN A MASSIVE BID IN THIS GLOBAL ROTATION. 11 OF THE 20 EUROPEAN SECTORS -- THE NO -- NOTION IS I WANT TO STAY IN THE MARKET BUT PICK THE DEFENSIVE STUFF, IT'S RATHER EXPENSIVE. THERE IS A NOTION JUST GOING OUT OF THE EQUITY MARKET TO GO TO TREASURIES, WHATEVER YOUR SAFE HAVEN OF CHOICE IS. GUY: MATT, ANTHROPIC, TALKING ABOUT VALUATION COMING DOWN QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY. HOW BIG OF A TEST IS THAT NOW GOING TO BE? PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT THAT BEING A CLEARING EVEN. IT FEELS A BIT MORE TO WEIGH IN TERMS OF THE ACTION YOU COULD SEE AROUND IT NOW. MATT: YEAH. CLEARLY, THEY WILL RUN THIS PROCESS UNTIL THE LAST MOMENT TO SEE WHERE THEY CAN GET IT TO. AT THE END OF THE DAY, IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH PRESSURE THERE IS ON INVESTORS WHO WANT TO MONETIZE SOME OF THE AND WHERE THAT VALUATION IS GOING TO BE. WE HAVE COME DOWN FROM $2 TRILLION TO $1.5 TRILLION. WE SAW OPENAI RAISING LESS MONEY AT A LOWER VALUATION. IT'S AT ABOUT 1.1 TRILLION DOLLARS. THAT'S THE DIRECTION OF TRAVEL. WE ARE JUST GOING TO HAVE TO SEE WHETHER THE EXISTING INVESTORS BLINK ON THAT. GUY: I'M INTERESTED TO SEE IF WE START GETTING MORE DOWN ROUNDS IN SOME OF THESE BIG COMPANIES. MATT BLOXHAM AND JP JOINING US ON THE MARKET STORY. LET'S GET ANOTHER ANGLE ON WHAT'S HAPPENING. JOBS IN THE STATES, THE SURVEY NUMBER IS 70,000. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EXPECTED TO BE A 4.2%. ABIGAIL JOINS US NOW. SHE IS FORECASTING 70 5000. HOW IMPORTANT IS TODAY'S NUMBER IN THE CONTEXT OF EVERYTHING ELSE THAT IS GOING ON AROUND? HOW IMPORTANT WILL THIS NUMBER BE FOR THE FED? HOW IMPORTANT WILL IT BE FOR THE MARKET CONSIDERING WE HAVE A MAJOR TECH -- ON OUR HANDS AND A SHIFT IN TERMS OF WHAT'S HAPPENING IN WASHINGTON? GUY: GOOD MORNING -- >> GOOD MORNING, GUY. I THINK YOU'RE RIGHT TO PUT IT IN THAT CONTEXT. THE JOBS MARKET NUMBERS WE WILL GET TODAY ARE IMPORTANT AND A KEY INPUT INTO HOW THE FOMC WILL BE VIEWING POLICY WHEN THEY GET TO THEIR DECEMBER TEAM MEETING. I THINK THESE DO MATTER. BUT I THINK THEY HAVE TO BE PUT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE BROADER PICTURE AND THE BROADER OUTLOOK FOR THE ECONOMY. OUR EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT WE SHOULD SEE, AS YOU NOTED, A SLIGHTLY BETTER PACE OF JOBS GROWTH IN OCTOBER WITH A 70 5K GAME. AND I THINK THAT THE ELEMENT THAT'S GOING TO MATTER HERE IS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TO 4.1%. I THINK THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PROJECTION THIS MONTH. THAT'S REALLY BECAUSE ONE OF THE THINGS WE HAVE SEEN POST-PANDEMIC IS IN OCTOBER, THERE IS MORE PRESSURE ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. AND WE DIDN'T GET AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NUMBER AT LAST OCTOBER. WE DON'T HAVE A SENSE OF HOW THAT IS POTENTIALLY INVOLVED SINCE THAT OPEN PRESSURE WE HAVE SEEN POST-PANDEMIC. THERE IS MORE RISK ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. I THINK THIS MATTERS AND I THINK IT MATTERS FOR THE FOMC ALONGSIDE THE INFLATION NUMBERS WE ARE GOING TO GET NEXT WEEK. GUY: I ONLY ASK THE QUESTION BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKE THIS IS A MARKET THAT IS OK -- A LABOR MARKET THAT IS OK AND A LABOR MARKET THE FED COULD PUT TO ONE SIDE AND IT HAS BIGGER FISH TO FRY IN TERMS OF WHAT'S HAPPENING ON THE INFLATION SIDE OF THE LEDGER. >> I THINK YOU'RE TOTALLY RIGHT. YOU HAVE HEARD CONSISTENTLY FROM CHAIRMAN WARSH, THIS FOCUS ON A NEED TO RETURN INFLATION TO TARGET. RESTORE PRICE STABILITY. I THINK THAT WAS THE OVERARCHING SIGNAL WE GOT FROM HIM AT THE OCTOBER FOMC MEETING, THAT THERE IS MORE WORK TO BE DONE ON THE INFLATION SIDE. I THINK THE NATURE OF THE FOMC'S INFLATION PROBLEM IS IMPORTANT TO PUT INTO SOME CONTEXT. FOR THE FOMC RIGHT NOW, THAT INFLATION PROBLEM IS NOT REALLY INFLATION NECESSARILY RUNNING AWAY FROM THEM AGAIN. THE INFLATION HEADLINE IS BEING PUSHED AROUND BY ENERGY PRICES. WHEN WE LOOK AT CORE INFLATION, THE PROBLEM IS IS INFLATION NOT COMING DOWN ENOUGH FOR THE COMMITTEE? OUR SENSE IS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THAT PRESSURE ON THE CORE INFLATION AND YOU SHOULD SEE FURTHER ACTION FROM THE FOMC ON THAT BASIS. GUY: I'M GLAD YOU HAVE TAKEN ME THERE. THE ELECTION WE JUST HAD IN THE UNITED STATES WAS ABOUT INFLATION. IT WAS ABOUT A COST OF LIVING. THAT WAS THE CENTRAL STORY THAT CAME OUT OF IT. AMERICANS ARE UNHAPPY WITH THE INFLATION THEY ARE FACING, NOT MONTH OF HER MORE -- MONTH OVER MONTH OR YEAR-OVER-YEAR BUT JUST CUMULATIVELY. PRICES HAVE GONE UP AND UP AND UP. KEVIN WARSH HAS REFERENCED THIS. HE TALKED ABOUT THE FIVE YOUR PICTURE AND THE AGGREGATE NUMBER. DO YOU THINK THAT WILL RESONATE ON THE FOMC, THE MESSAGE THAT HAS BEEN DELIVERED BY THE AMERICAN PEOPLE? >> I THINK THIS IS A MESSAGE WE HAVE HEARD FROM FOMC PARTICIPANTS FOR SOME TIME. YOU START TO HEAR THIS KIND OF CONCERN AROUND INFLATION PERSISTENCE AND THE FACT THE FOMC HAS MISSED ITS TARGET NOW FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS. THAT CONCERN HAS BEEN THERE IN THE COMMUNITY FOR SOME TIME. I THINK THE QUESTION THAT THE COMMITTEE IS GRAPPLING WITH IS AROUND THE DRIVERS OF THE INFLATION PRESSURE AT THIS JUNCTURE. PART OF IT IS AN ENERGY PRICE OIL SUPPLY STORY. IT IS A SUPPLY-SIDE SHOCK. PART OF IT IS RESIDUAL TARIFF IMPACT ON CORE GOODS PRICES. PART OF IT IS THIS GUY BUILD OUTCOME, THIS AI STORY, WHEN WE LOOK AT THE CONSUMER PRICE BASKET. FOR THEM, IT'S A CHALLENGE OF HOW MUCH SHOULD WE BE PUSHING BACK AGAINST THIS DYNAMIC. I THINK THAT IS A LITTLE BIT CHALLENGING AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE FOMC. I THINK YOU HAVE SEEN MORE WILLINGNESS FROM THE FOMC TO DELIVER MORE POLICY TIGHTENING. THE EXPECTATION IS THEY DELIVER TIGHTENING POTENTIALLY IN THE DECEMBER AND JANUARY FOMC MEETINGS. GUY: OK. IN TERMS OF THE AI STORY, I WANT TO GET YOUR QUICK TAKE ON THAT. IF THE AI BUILDOUT SLOWS DOWN, WILL THEY SEE IT AS A GROWTH CONCERN OR A HELP IN TERMS OF BRINGING INFLATION UNDER CONTROL? HOW WILL THEY VIEW IT IF THE DEMOCRATS COME IN AND SAY ENOUGH, LET'S SLOW THIS THING DOWN? >> I THINK YOU ARE RIGHT TO NOTE BOTH RISKS. ONE OF THE THINGS WE HAVE SEEN IS IF YOU LOOK AT WHERE THE RESILIENCY IS IN THE U.S. ECONOMY AND WHERE THE STRENGTH IS ON THE GROWTH SIDE, IT IS CERTAINLY AN AI STORY AND AI DRIVEN. I THINK THIS IS AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE RESILIENT GROWTH PICTURE WE HAVE IN THE U.S. RIGHT NOW. I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO FRAME CHAIRMAN WARSH AT THE OCTOBER FOMC MEETING DID NOT SOUND LIKE THE ECONOMY WAS OVERHEATING AT THIS JUNCTURE. I'M NOT SURE THAT IS NECESSARILY THE CONCERN. WHEN YOU LOOK AT AI AND HOW IT RELATES TO INFLATION, IT IS CONCENTRATED IN CERTAIN NUMBERS OF COMPONENTS OF THE KIND OF CORE INFLATION BASKET. FOR THEM TO BE WEIGHING THOSE TWO THINGS, THEY WOULD HAVE TO BE SEEING A BROADER OVERHEATING ECONOMY FOR THEM TO FEEL LIKE THAT IS SOMETHING THAT THEY WOULD BE FACTORING IN. MY SENSE IS THAT IF YOU WERE TO SEE SOMETHING THAT SLOWED THE AI BUILDOUT, THAT IS A REAL RISK TO THE GROWTH SIDE OF THE LEDGER FOR THE FOMC. GUY: GREAT TO CATCH UP, NICE TO SEE YOU. ABIGAIL. KEVIN HASSETT OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL WILL JOIN OPEN INTEREST AT 9:30 A.M. NEW YORK TIME AND 2:30 P.M. LONDON TIME. SHARES ARE DOWN THIS MORNING AT DAIMLER. THEY SAY THE'S LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED GROWTH REFLECTS UNCERTAINTY OVER NEW U.S. EMISSION. SHARES IN DRAFTKINGS ARE PLUNGING AFTER DELIVERING EARNINGS FORECASTS THAT MISSED ESTIMATES. DRAFTKINGS HAS STRUGGLED WITH SPORTS BETTING OUTCOMES THAT HAVE BEEN MORE FAVORABLE TO ITS CUSTOMERS AND COMPETITION FROM OTHER SITES, PARTICULARLY THE BETTING SITES. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING IN TEXAS. GINA HINOJOSA SAID SHE REQUESTED A PAUSE ON TALKS ABOUT THE SALE TO SPACEX. SHE SAID SHE IS WILLING TO WORK WITH ELON MUSK AND HIS COMPANIES BUT IT HAS TO BE ON THEIR TERMS. SHARES OF ELON MUSK'S COMPANIES HAVE FALLEN STEEPLY SINCE ELECTION NIGHT. COMING UP, PRESIDENT TRUMP PLAYED THE BLAME GAME YESTERDAY. BASICALLY SAYING IT WAS THE DEMOCRATS FAULT THE MARKET'S DOWN. THE LATEST FROM WASHINGTON, NEXT. 5:44 A.M. IN NEW YORK. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ GUY: THIS IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF. ♪ GUY: GOOD MORNING. HOW ARE YOU DOING, FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS THE BRIEF. I AM GUY JOHNSON. FUTURES HAVE BEEN GOING UP THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE MORNING, SEEM TO BE STABILIZING OUT THESE CURRENT LEVELS. SEEING THIS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE BATTERING OF STOCKS YESTERDAY. CRUDE IS BEGINNING TO TURN AROUND. IT'S INTERESTING. WE HAVE SEEN TAIWAN IMPOSING A SHORTSELLING LIMIT TO SUPPORT STOCK -- THE STOCK MARKET. THE ASIAN GOVERNMENT IS STARTING TO TAKE ACTION. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS -- HAS BEEN TALKING ABOUT, TAKING TO TRUTH SOCIAL AFTER YESTERDAY'S MARKET SELLOFF. HE SAID THE STOCK MARKET CRASHED BECAUSE THE DEMOCRATS WON THE MIDTERMS. JOINING US IS JONATHAN OF BLOOMBERG GOVERNMENT. THE COMMENTS ARE INTERESTING IN TERMS OF WHICH PART OF THE ELECTORATE TRUMP IS STILL TRYING TO TALK TO. LET ME TALK TO YOU ABOUT BROADLY WHAT IS HAPPENING HERE. THERE IS A LOT OF TURBULENCE IN WASHINGTON. ONE OF THOSE IS WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THE TRUMP CABINET. THERE IS ALL KINDS OF STORIES AROUND THE FUTURE OF PETE HEGSETH, THE DEFENSE SECRETARY. WHAT ARE YOU HEARING AND WHAT ARE WE HEARING IN TERMS OF HOW THAT CABINET IS GOING TO BE RESHAPED? JONATHAN: YOU ARE STARTING TO SEE PEOPLE WHO ARE CONSIDERING THEIR POLITICAL FUTURES, TRYING TO CREATE SOME DISTANCE WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP. MOST PROMINENTLY, VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE IMMEDIATELY CAME OUT AND BLAMED THE IRAN WAR, MOST PEOPLE THINK VANCE IS TRYING TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2028 AND HE MAY HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED BY THIS ELECTION RESULT BECAUSE IT SHOWS HE'S PART OF AN ADMINISTRATION THAT THE PUBLIC HAS RESOUNDINGLY REJECTED. BUT, AS YOU NOTE, IT KIND OF CONTINUES. PETE HEGSETH IS REMAINING LOYAL TO THE PRESIDENT. THE PRESIDENT STILL SUPPORTS THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE BUT HE WILL BE THE FIRST MAJOR TARGET FOR DEMOCRATS. AND EVEN BEFORE DEMOCRATS TAKE POWER, THERE WILL BE A VOTE NEXT WEEK, AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK ON IMPEACHING HIM. AND THERE IS A CHANCE YOU MIGHT SEE A NUMBER OF REPUBLICANS SUPPORT THIS TOO, BECAUSE THEY ARE PRETTY ANGRY ABOUT THE WAR AS WELL. NOW THERE'S A LOT OF REPUBLICANS WHOSE POLITICAL CAREERS ARE EFFECTIVELY OVER. THEY HAVE NOTHING TO LOSE. LASTLY, OUR COLLEAGUES HAVE REPORTED THAT MARCO RUBIO IS CONSIDERING LEAVING THE ADMINISTRATION. HE HAS FIRMLY DENIED THIS. BUT, IT WOULD BE A HUGE LOSS. HE'S PROBABLY ONE OF THE BEST PUBLIC SPEAKERS IN THE ADMINISTRATION, SOMEONE WHO HAS GOOD RELATIONSHIPS WITH CONGRESS , BEING A FORMER SENATOR AND A FACE OF THE ADMINISTRATION GLOBALLY. IF HE IS CONSIDERING HIS POLITICAL FUTURE, IT MIGHT MAKE A CERTAIN SENSE FOR HIM TO CREATE SOME DISTANCE FROM AN ADMINISTRATION THAT HAS BECOME VERY UNPOPULAR. GUY: IN TERMS OF WHAT WE ARE SETTING UP HERE, HAVE WE STARTED THE GUN ON WHO IS GOING TO REPLACE DONALD TRUMP? NORMALLY YOU WOULD SEE THE PARTY EFFECTIVELY DUMPING A LAME DUCK PRESIDENT. THAT DOES NOT FEEL LIKE IT WILL BE THE CASE HERE. HOW IS THAT GOING TO WORK? JONATHAN: IT IS A CHALLENGE. THE STARTING GUN HAS GONE OFF. FLORIDA GOVERNOR RON DESANTIS HAS BEEN, AS A GUY WHO WAS A STRONG TRUMP LOYALIST WHEN HE RAN FOR GOVERNOR, HAS BEEN OUT IN PUBLIC, JUST REPEATEDLY CRITICIZING THE WAR AND CRITICIZING WHAT HE DESCRIBES AS SELF-DEALING, WHICH IS A NOT VERY VEILED CRITICISM OF THE PRESIDENT AND SOME OF THE SELF ENRICHMENT HE HAS GONE THROUGH IN THIS SECOND TERM. TED CRUZ HAS HAD A LENGTHY POST CRITICIZING THE WAR, CRITICIZING TARIFFS, SAYING REPUBLICANS MISSED THE MOMENT ON COST-OF-LIVING. MANY REPUBLICANS ARE ALREADY TRYING TO CREATE SOME DISTANCE FROM THE PRESIDENT. THE CHALLENGE IS GOING TO BE SO MANY OF THEM WERE VERY LOYAL TO HIM FOR SO LONG. IT MIGHT BE EASIER FOR SOMEBODY LIKE DESANTIS, WHO IS OUTSIDE OF WASHINGTON AND CAN SAY HE HAS HIS OWN RECORD IN FLORIDA, THAN IT MIGHT BE FOR OTHERS. GUY: THANK YOU, JONATHAN. COMING UP, SOME KEY ECONOMIC DATA. WE WILL GET THAT TODAY. OBVIOUSLY, THE MAJOR ONE IS THE PAYROLL. THERE ARE OTHERS WE NEED TO FOCUS ON. IT IS 5:51 IN NEW YORK. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ GUY: 5:55 A.M.. THIS IS BLOOMBERG BRIEF. I AM GUY JOHNSON. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE DAY AHEAD. IT IS JOBS DAY IN AMERICA. THE OCTOBER JOBS REPORT AND AT 8:30 A.M. NEW YORK TIME, 801I THINK IS THE WHISPER NUMBER. THE FED PRESIDENT WILL SPEAK AT 9:00 A.M. U.S. DATA IS OUT AT 10:00. PAY ATTENTION TO THAT FOR SENTIMENT. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE MICRON MOVERS. ALL OF THESE STOCKS GOT HAMMERED. NVIDIA IS STILL TO REPORT. THEY ARE STARTING UP A LITTLE BIT TODAY. THAT IS GOOD NEWS. THE MEMORY STOCKS. AMD IS HAVING A BETTER SESSION. ALL GOOD NEWS. YOU HAVE TO SEE IT IN THE CONTEXT OF YESTERDAY. IN TERMS OF THE MACRO PICTURE, S&P FUTURES ARE UP. NASDAQ FUTURES ARE UP MORE BUT THEY GOT HIT A LOT HARDER. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF STABILIZATION. CRUDE IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. A LOT OF MOVING PARTS. WE WILL PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THE OIL PRICES. THAT WRAPS UP THIS WEEK. WHAT A WEEK IT HAS BEEN, IF I CAN SPEAK, FOR THE MARKETS, FOR POLITICS. WASHINGTON OBVIOUSLY THE EPICENTER OF ALL OF THE ACTION. THE SURVEILLANCE TEAM WILL I THINK BE BREATHING A SIGH OF RELIEF THAT IT IS THE WEEKEND. THE DAY AHEAD IS FASCINATING. THEY'VE GOT YOU COVERED FOR THE NEXT THREE HOURS. ENJOY THE WEEKEND, FOLKS. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪","textShort":"Stocks Selloff Pauses Rebound After Tech Rout; Jobs Report Ahead\n\n♪ >> GOOD MORNING. I AM GUY JOHNSON YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. WHAT DO YOU NEED TO KNOW? THE SELLOFF IN EQUITY SHOWING SIGNS OF EASING PARTICULARLY IN THE U.S. AFTER THE S&P STEEPEST DROP IN A YEAR YESTERDAY. ASIA…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lre_r1SIMwA"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T12:38:11.497Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"3292df02-c583-4f80-8bad-6b4161eb0fdc","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["GPUがここまで進化したことも見失ってそう"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source says critics of the memory outlook may be overlooking how much GPUs have advanced.","topic":"gpu evolution"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["余らないし","以前のサイクルとは明らかに違うよ","HBMとeSSDがあるんだから"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source argues memory will not be in surplus next year and says the current cycle differs from earlier ones.","topic":"memory supply"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:DRAM","confidence":0.75,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":40.3815,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T12:37:22.411Z","headline":"Expects memory to avoid a surplus next year, supporting DRAM","id":"sig_25e2e6cd59fe41a283001751","matched":["余らないし","以前のサイクルとは明らかに違うよ","HBMとeSSDがあるんだから"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"The source expects memory not to be oversupplied next year, citing HBM and eSSD as reasons the cycle differs from the past, which supports DRAM.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"DRAM","tags":["memory","supply","semiconductors"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"763b6be0-ace0-4568-893e-8fdb546d022f","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T12:36:18.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2068175694518181888/oUF61DpA_normal.jpg","handle":"@paurooteri","id":"x-960804070117187584","name":"パウロ","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"メモリが来年余るとか極端なこと言い出している人がいるなぁ。\n余らないし、以前のサイクルとは明らかに違うよ。\nHBMとeSSDがあるんだから。そしてHBFやXL-Flashが出ても、以前のサイクルと同じとでも言うんですかね。\n\nそういう人たちはGPUがここまで進化したことも見失ってそう。","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/paurooteri/status/2118683893289332984"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T12:06:18.010Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"fc45e4fa-e323-44d2-a241-ae71a519e1fb","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["the alternative SoV pie will grow tremendously","insure against it’s weaknesses"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source expects alternative stores of value to gain a much larger share as a hedge against Bitcoin’s weaknesses.","topic":"alternative store of value assets"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["cryptocurrencies” are fucking back","entering a new phase"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source thinks cryptocurrencies are entering a strong new phase.","topic":"cryptocurrencies"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"BTC","confidence":0.75,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":1,"entryPx":76148.5,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T12:06:07.595Z","headline":"Expects Bitcoin to be worth buying as cryptocurrencies return","id":"sig_14d1fa67aa854f23a492d505","matched":["worth taking a shot at Bitcoin","cryptocurrencies” are fucking back"],"maxLeverage":40,"rationale":"The source thinks cryptocurrencies are coming back and says Bitcoin is worth taking a shot on.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"BTC","tags":["bitcoin","crypto resurgence"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"ZEC","confidence":0.75,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":1290.35,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T12:06:07.595Z","headline":"Expects Zcash to overtake XRP in relative standing","id":"sig_e309e4b8ef284c6ab31ac444","matched":["$ZEC flips $XRP"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source expects Zcash to move ahead of XRP.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"ZEC","tags":["zcash","relative performance"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"XMR","confidence":0.75,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":618.735,"entryPxAt":"2026-11-06T12:06:07.595Z","headline":"Expects Monero to overtake Hyperliquid in relative standing","id":"sig_efb590121fa54fb289ae3bf4","matched":["$XMR flips $HYPE"],"maxLeverage":5,"rationale":"The source expects Monero to move ahead of Hyperliquid.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"XMR","tags":["monero","relative performance"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"d8b3106e-5d4b-4ee6-ab5a-173c88dbcb6c","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T12:04:56.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2009079698765303808/Pch25ugN_normal.jpg","handle":"@zeroxkyle","id":"x-4110654312","name":"Kyle","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Reposted @5morewhooppers: I don’t have a ton of predictions for 2027 aside from one main thesis which is that “cryptocurrencies” are fucking back. And i’m not the only one feeling that \n\nNot crypto. Not blockchain. Not “crypto enabled” or whatever bs. Cold ass cryptocurrencies

It means that we’re prob entering a new phase where it’s worth taking a shot at Bitcoin. The king isn’t untouchable anymore, not in the sense that it will fade away but the alternative SoV pie will grow tremendously to insure against it’s weaknesses  

Tbh nothing else matters to me in 2027. Shorten your watchlist. Back to the roots. 

If you want me to be more specific i believe that $XMR flips $HYPE and $ZEC flips $XRP

LGW","textShort":"Reposted @5morewhooppers: I don’t have a ton of predictions for 2027 aside from one main thesis which is that “cryptocurrencies” are fucking back. And i’m not the only one feeling that \n\nNot crypto. Not blockchain. Not “crypto enabled” or whatever bs. Cold ass…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/zeroxkyle/status/2118676002369155365"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T11:38:40.600Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"f49c4c78-6145-47b2-ae0b-3a294651d312","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["if it becomes cold","the LNG prices would hit $3,400 a barrel equivalent"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"He says LNG prices could rise sharply if the coming winter is cold.","topic":"lng prices"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["The crude is going about 80%","The products are now 35 to 40%","The LNG side is the worst"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"He says crude flows are below prewar levels, refined products are more constrained, and LNG flows are worsening.","topic":"hormuz energy flows"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["we are not close to resolution","they will do it in the next week or two"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Fereidun says a resolution is not close and expects action against Iran in the next week or two.","topic":"iran conflict resolution"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:CL","confidence":0.75,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":90.754,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Fereidun Fesharaki expects oil to fall to $65–$70 next year as oversupply builds","id":"sig_7a342492b7ab4ab1b8e87851","matched":["prices would be $65.70 dollars","substantial overproduction and oversupply in the market","we are looking downwards"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"Fereidun expects oil prices to drop as substantial overproduction and oversupply weigh on the crude market.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"CL","tags":["oil","oversupply","price outlook"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"bce37013-e456-493c-9e44-d8802d2ad6aa","marks":[{"at":45,"t":0},{"at":730,"t":47},{"at":1203,"t":81},{"at":1710,"t":118},{"at":2587,"t":173},{"at":3359,"t":226}],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T11:36:25.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://yt3.googleusercontent.com/4-w44catDebzaDSUWgereql0G5_z5o7VpJXuIYL_eZ3H1vXy0lTmrole9V500jTUXCnQPZ5CuKQ=s900-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj","handle":"@markets","id":"yt-UCIALMKvObZNtJ6AmdCLP7Lg","name":"Bloomberg Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Fesharaki Says Oil’s Right Price Is $80-$90\n\nIt's been quite surprising that oil really eased by that much in speculation, and it's purely speculation that we'll see an end to the war. Well, I think what we have to do first to see what would be the price of oil if there was no threat of war at all. The fundamentals, supply demand, the flows, interest rate of hormones, lower inventory levels, they tell us that the price is between 80 to $90. That's the right price. Anything above that is a war risk premium. And now suddenly the war risk premium has disappeared because people think that because of the recent situation and possibilities of a deal that the risk premium is gone. So we are back to the non risk premium prices. Is the market assessing it the wrong way, and where should prices be from from your own perspective? Supply demand analysis indicate 80 to $90 a barrel. That's the right level. Given the low inventory levels... And I think some... Next year, this time, the prices would be $65.70 dollars, substantial overproduction and oversupply in the market. So we are looking downwards, and we have to remember that just before the war started, we were looking at $60 a barrel of oil. So everything has been pushed up because of the war situation. Fereidun, you're tracking the developments in Iran really closely. What's your own reading? Are we close to a resolution? Is president Trump likely to ease off on the pressure? Absolutely not. Not only we are not close to resolution, we are even worse than we were before during MOU. The Iranian side, the IRGC sees that Trump has become weakened, so increases the demand and making very unreasonable requests which The US can never live with. So you're expecting perhaps a resumption, acceleration of attacks on Iran? Well, there are there are two things happening. One is that the blockade is very effective. Iran almost exporting no oil. A little bit of Iranian oil is... Goes out as Iraqi oil out, two, 300,000 barrels per day. But the... By the end of November, they'll be starving because there'll be no money coming in. No money for proxies. No money to pay the soldiers. No money to do anything. So that continues by itself, and that's unlikely to be stopped. And then, you know, Trump has a short window between now and January 3 where the new congressional people come to office. Nathan Hager also has a two, three months window. He's still prime minister until they can find a resolution to the leadership. So if they wanna do something, it's now or never. And I think they will do it in the next week or two. In the next week or two, in terms of the flows through Hormuz, what are you seeing? We know that crude is still flowing, but it is the refined products which are perhaps seeing some, I guess, challenges. Yes. The crude is going about 80%, including the pipelines. The total volume getting out is about 80, 85% of the prewar level. The products are now 35 to 40%, so they're doing better. And there's a lot of funny deals going on between different groups which allow the ships to go forward. Some countries, they don't have anybody attacking their ships because they have made arrangements. So I think the product side is not as good. The LNG side is the worst. Less and less of it is going out, and the the spot price of LNG today is, equivalent to $200 a barrel of oil. Let me just pick up on that because we're headed towards the winter months. How bad might it be? Well, it depends how cold it's gonna be. Based on the last year's performance, it's not gonna be so cold, it may not be disastrous. But if it becomes cold, the LNG prices would hit $3,400 a barrel equivalent, $35.45 dollars a million BTU. So that's a really much, much bigger deal than what happens in the oil market.","textShort":"Fesharaki Says Oil’s Right Price Is $80-$90\n\nIt's been quite surprising that oil really eased by that much in speculation, and it's purely speculation that we'll see an end to the war. Well, I think what we have to do first to see what would be the price of oil if there was…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhGLl3haQg0"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T08:49:36.522Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"b7233105-7f84-4dd9-9b86-b955b45a7183","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Fiyatın $4110'dan güncel olarak reddedilmesinin sebebi, ara bir arz bölgesine gelmiş olmasındandır.","Yeşil kutunun diplerine ($3975) kadar geri çekilme görülebilir."],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"Gold was rejected around $4,110, and he allows for a pullback toward $3,975 while expecting the trade to remain intact if the swing low holds.","topic":"gold price outlook"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:GOLD","confidence":0.9,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":4074.55,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects gold to possibly pull back toward $3,975 before his trade targets about $4,250","id":"sig_bec571c9f23841f08fedb1dc","matched":["Yeşil kutunun diplerine ($3975) kadar geri çekilme görülebilir.","$4250 civarı ise, işler rast giderse işlemimin finalize noktası olacaktır.","güncel swing low kaybedilmediği müddetçe işlem akışında bir problem görmeyeceğim."],"maxLeverage":25,"rationale":"He expects gold could pull back toward $3,975, then reach about $4,250 if its current swing low holds.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"GOLD","tags":["gold","trade target","pullback"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"be21ee29-02b3-4f62-abef-70ab96a175b4","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T08:48:34.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2036249821804371969/QbSPb7JG_normal.jpg","handle":"@Efloud","id":"x-1063939505827323904","name":"Efloud","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"$GOLD | Güncelleme\n\nMerhabalar,\n\nVaktiniz olursa alıntıladığım post'taki video'yu izlemenizi öneriyorum. Hatta direkt link'ini de bırakayım buraya: https://t.co/Nj1F7pRdo8\n\nSadece işlem kurgusu (grafikte gördüğünüz ok ile yapılan çizim) vb. kısımlar için 19. dakikadan sonrası yeterli olacaktır; ancak o işlem kurgusunun mantığının oluşma bölümü, yani asıl öğretici kısım, videonun tamamıdır. Tavsiyedir, izleyiniz.\n\nGüncel analizime gelecek olursam;\nFiyatın $4110'dan güncel olarak reddedilmesinin sebebi, ara bir arz bölgesine gelmiş olmasındandır.\n\nYeşil kutunun diplerine ($3975) kadar geri çekilme görülebilir. Görüldüğü takdirde güncel swing low kaybedilmediği müddetçe işlem akışında bir problem görmeyeceğim.\n\n$4250 civarı ise, işler rast giderse işlemimin finalize noktası olacaktır.\n\nBen kısmi kâr realizasyonu yaptım. Kâr realizasyonunu düşünmek, stop->entry yapmak gibi hadiseler genelde trader'ların insiyatifine bağlı olduğu için kararı sizin risk iştahınıza bırakıyorum. Kendinizi güvenceye almanız ve R:R prensiplerine uygun hareket etmeniz, bu işi sürdürülebilir yapmanız için elzemdir.\n\nVaktim oldukça SPX, NQ, DXY analizlerimi de sizlerle paylaşmaya çalışacağım.\n\nHerkese güzel bir hafta sonu dilerim. Hayırlı cumalar. Trade'lerinizde bol kazançlar.\n\nQuoting their own post: MPA #12 — GOLD'da Sideways Bölgedeki Arz & Talep Bölgelerinin Kullanımı | Mixed Price Action Arts\n\nMPA’nın on ikinci videosu huzurlarınızda.\n\nBu seride, X üzerinde aldığım veya kendi gerçekleştirdiğim işlemlerin sebep-sonuç ilişkilerini net bir şekilde açıklayarak pozisyonların giriş, gelişme ve sonuç aşamalarına dair bilgilendirmeler yapmaktayım.\n\nDetaylar ve link bir aşağıdaki post'ta 👇","textShort":"$GOLD | Güncelleme\n\nMerhabalar,\n\nVaktiniz olursa alıntıladığım post'taki video'yu izlemenizi öneriyorum. Hatta direkt link'ini de bırakayım buraya: https://t.co/Nj1F7pRdo8\n\nSadece işlem kurgusu (grafikte gördüğünüz ok ile yapılan çizim) vb. kısımlar için 19. dakikadan sonrası…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/Efloud/status/2118626585607614803"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T08:22:46.912Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"ec2eb831-cb1e-47f2-81c8-25859d389de0","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["INDIA IS STARTING TO COME BACK","EARNINGS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING A LOT","WE HAVE STABILIZED AMIDST THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WORLD"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The Edelweiss executive says improving earnings and economic stability could bring foreign investor interest back to India.","topic":"indian equities"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["THIS IS GOING TO SHAKE OUT SOME MARGINAL PLAYERS","WE ARE AT THE VERY EARLY STAGES","YOU NEED TO REPRICE ALL OF THESE SECURITIES"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"Dan Niles sees AI as an early-stage opportunity but expects market repricing and tougher conditions for some companies.","topic":"ai investment outlook"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["$80 TO $90 IS THE RIGHT LEVEL","I THINK NEXT YEAR THIS TIME, THE PRICE WOULD BE $65, $70","WE ARE LOOKING DOWNWARD"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The oil analyst sees prices falling next year as oversupply grows, despite saying current fundamentals support prices around $80 to $90.","topic":"oil prices"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:GOOGL","confidence":0.82,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":284.205,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Dan Niles names Google among his long-term stock picks","id":"sig_42369eb3481f4591b28972e2","matched":["I LIKE GOOGLE","I LIKE GOOGLE, I LIKE APPLE ON THE CONSUMER SIDE, AND I LIKE MICROSOFT.","THOSE ARE MY LONG-TERM PICKS."],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"Dan Niles expects Google to benefit as the main AI winner on Android phones and names it as a long-term 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picks","id":"sig_d767982e838b4556bdf81010","matched":["I LIKE MICROSOFT","ON CONSUMER, I SEE THOSE TWO WINNING AN ENTERPRISE WILL BE MICROSOFT","THOSE ARE MY LONG-TERM PICKS."],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"Dan Niles expects Microsoft to win in enterprise AI and names it as a long-term pick.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"MSFT","tags":["ai","enterprise software","long term picks"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:JPY","confidence":0.75,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":1,"entryPx":157.775,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Claudio Piron expects the yen to strengthen against the dollar toward 147","id":"sig_14e3b7586e1c4f2d8ba1ed70","matched":["LOOKING FOR DOLLAR-YEN AT 147","YEN IS BENEFITING"],"maxLeverage":50,"rationale":"Claudio Piron expects the yen to strengthen, which would push the dollar-yen rate lower toward 147.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"JPY","tags":["yen","forex","safe haven"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:KR200","confidence":0.75,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":786.46,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Peter Kim sees Korea's stock-market correction as a buying opportunity","id":"sig_d95126e246474173b1f1bcb3","matched":["THIS CURRENT CORRECTION IS AN OPPORTUNITY IF YOU GIVE YOURSELF TIME","RISK/REWARD IS FAVORING THE BUYERS"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"Peter Kim thinks Korean stocks offer favorable risk and reward after the correction, so the Korea 200 market could rise.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"KR200","tags":["korea equities","buy the dip","market correction"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:XYZ100","confidence":0.75,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":2,"entryPx":26932.5,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"The guest favors the Nasdaq 100 as a way to play AI","id":"sig_6619da91465341a48c54910e","matched":["HOW ABOUT THE NASDAQ 100?","I THINK THE ONLY WAY TO PLAY AI IS BY DIVERSIFYING YOUR TECHNOLOGY PORTFOLIO","QQQ'S DO THAT AND YOU JUST PUT IT AWAY."],"maxLeverage":30,"rationale":"The guest expects the Nasdaq 100 to be a strong way to invest in AI and says to put the investment away.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":true,"sym":"XYZ100","tags":["nasdaq 100","ai","technology 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Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"As Stocks Reel From AI Rout, Investors Seek Safety Beyond Tech\n\nHASLINDA: A HISTORIC TECH ROUT RIPPING THROUGH MOST OF ASIA AS THIRD WORST WORSE DAY FOR U.S. STOCKS SINCE 2020. JAPAN HAS ENTERED A BEAR MARKET. TAIWAN GETTING HAMMERED AS WELL. BUT CHINA AND HONG KONG SEEM TO BE PUTTING UP A FIGHT AND SO IS THE SELLOFF OF -- SO IT IS THE SALAFI CONTAGION, OR A BUYING OPPORTUNITY? THIS IS INSIGHT WITH HASLINDA ALMOND WHERE WE DIVE DEEPER INTO THE STORIES THAT MATTER WITH CRUCIAL INSIGHT. WE HAVE A HEAVYWEIGHT LINE-UP. THE INVESTOR ONCE DUBBED THE MICHAEL JORDAN OF TECH ANALYSTS TELLS US WHETHER THE AI ROUT HAS FURTHER TO RUN. A VETERAN ANALYST JOINS US ON OIL AND THE LINGERING RISKS ON IRAN. WE DISCUSSED WHERE INVESTORS CAN FIND SAFETY. PETER KIM OF KB FINANCIAL ON WHETHER KOREA CAN BOUNCE BACK FROM THIS MASSIVE CRASH. AND ONE OF INDIA'S BIGGEST FINANCIAL NAMES EXPLAINS WHETHER INDIA CAN PROVIDE AN ESCAPE FROM THE AI UNLINED. ALL OF THAT AND MORE ON \"INSIG HT.\" ♪ ASIAN MARKETS HAVE BEEN ROCKED BY A BRUTAL TECH SELLOFF BUT THE FIRST SIGNS OF A FIGHT BACK ARE NOW EMERGING. THE KOSPI'S EARLY PLUNGE TRIGGERING A SECOND BREAKER,, WHILE THE NIKKEI ENTERS A TECHNICAL BEAR MARKET. NASDAQ 100 FUTURE SEEM TO BE REBOUNDING, AND CHINA AND HONG KONG ARE RECOVERING. YET, SENTIMENT REMAINS FRAGILE WITH VOLATILITY SPIKING. LET'S BRING IN ANTHONY STEPHENS FOR MORE. WHAT ARE WE SEEING RIGHT NOW? ANTHONY: IT HAS BEEN A WILD FRIDAY. WE STARTED AT THE LOWS. THE MARKET WAS ACTUALLY SHUT. KOREA WAS SHUT FOR 20 MINUTES RIGHT ON THE OPEN AND NOW THE GOVERNMENT STEPPING IN AND TALK ABOUT REDUCING THE MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. YOU ARE STARTING TO SEE THE MARKET PULLBACK. AA REMARKABLE SHOW OF FORCE FROM THE KOREAN RETAIL THAT DID GET DINGED AND RIDEN THE DROP ALL THE WAY DOWN -- RIDDEN THE DROP ALL THE WAY DOWN. FLIP THE BOARD AND YOU CAN SEE ON A SINGLE NAME LEVEL, THERE'S A LOT OF DAMAGE OUT THERE IN CORE POSITIONING. WE ARE WELL OFF THE LOWS BUT STILL IN POPULAR TAIWAN POSITIONS. SOFTBANK, WHICH IS VERY EXPOSED TO THE U.S. AI INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM, YOU HAVE A HUGE MOVE HERE AT 9%. THAT IS NOT BAD COMPARED TO HOW IT OPENED. ALL OF THE CHINA EXPORTERS TO THE U.S. AROUND THE OPTICAL SPACE IN THE FINTECH CIRCUIT BOARD SPACE GETTING HAMMERED AS WELL. THE ONLY PLACE THAT IS BENEFITING IS HONG KONG CONSUMER INTERNET SPACE. YOU CAN SEE CONSISTENT STRENGTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE SINGLES' DAY ONLINE SHOPPING HOLIDAY. MATE -- YOU MIGHT WANT TO HAVE A STRONG -- AND THAT IS HELPING SENTIMENT ACROSS THE BOARD EVEN IN AUSTRALIA. YOU CONTINUE TO SEE THE CONSUMER STABILIZE AROUND HERE AS THE SAFE HAVEN. THIS ROTATION IS WHAT IS DRIVING MARKETS. THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS GOING TO BE THE VOLATILITY UNWIND AND THAT SHOWS NO SIGN OF SHOPPING -- STOPPING. HASLINDA: STICK AROUND. OUR NEXT GUEST HAS A TRACK RECORD OF ONE OF WALL STREET'S MOST ACCURATE, HIGHLY DECORATED TECH STOCK ANALYST AND HEDGE FUND MANAGERS. LET'S BRING IN DAN NILES. A SHELLACKING BASICALLY FOR TECH STOCKS. IS THIS AN INFLECTION POINT, HEALTHY CORRECTION OR MAYBE WE DON'T KNOW YET? DAN: I THINK YOU DON'T KNOW YET. I THINK WITH WHERE WE ARE ON THE TRADE FOR AI, THE START AT THE END OF 2022, IT IS OBVIOUSLY YEARS. THERE WERE SOME SIGNS THERE WERE GOING TO BE A PROBLEM BECAUSE LET'S NOT FORGET, TEXAS ALL THE WAY BACK IN AUGUST STOPPED PERMITTING CONNECTIONS TO THEIR GRID. AND TEXAS WAS ARGUABLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ADDING DATA CENTERS. THIS HAS BEEN BREWING FOR A WHILE. THIS IS A GOOD THING THAT IT HAPPENED BECAUSE QUITE HONESTLY, YOU HAD TOO MUCH RAMPANT SPECULATION IN THE MARKETS. THIS IS GOING TO SHAKE OUT SOME MARGINAL PLAYERS. I AM SURE YOU TALKED ABOUT THERE ARE SOME BIG HEDGE FUNDS IN THE U.S. THAT LOOKED LIKE THEY ARE GOING TO BE FOLDING WHICH IS A GOOD THING. IT WILL CREATE A HEALTHIER MARKET GOING FORWARD BECAUSE AT THE END OF THE DAY, AGENTIC AI, WHETHER IT IS OPENCLAW IN JANUARY OR META WHICH CAME OUT IN SEPTEMBER, WE ARE AT THE VERY EARLY STAGES OF THAT. I THINK THIS WILL TURN OUT TO BE MUCH LIKE WHAT YOU SAW IN 1997 OR 1998, WHERE YOU HAVE AN ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS AND THE RUSSIAN BOND DEFAULT. THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX WENT DOWN BOTH TIMES IN THE MIDDLE OF 1997 AND 1998 AND IT FINISHED BOTH OF THOSE YEARS UP, AND THEN RIPPED IN 1999 HIGHER. THAT IS HOW I AM THINKING ABOUT THINGS RIGHT NOW. HASLINDA: THAT IS GREAT PERSPECTIVE. I AM JUST WONDERING HAS ANYTHING FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED IN THE LAST 48 HOURS? DAN: ABSOLUTELY. THIS IS WHY I WAS WARNING GOING INTO THE MIDTERMS THAT THIS COULD BE --AND THERE WAS A PODCAST I DID ON TUESDAY AND I SAID I WAS TERRIFIED OF THE MIDTERMS. THIS IS EXACTLY WHY BECAUSE TEXAS, GEORGIA, OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA ALL FLIPPED DEMOCRAT. THAT IS WHERE YOU HAVE 50% OF THE INCREMENTAL DATA CENTER CAPACITY COMING ONLINE AND WHEN YOU HAVE THE NEWLY ELECTED TEXAS GOVERNOR SAYING HEY, I WANT A MORATORIUM ON DATA CENTERS, YOU'VE GOT A PROBLEM. SO, YES, THINGS HAVE FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED FROM 48 HOURS AGO AND THAT IS WHY YOU NEED TO REPRICE ALL OF THESE SECURITIES. THE GOOD THING IS FOR ASIA, THIS IS ACTUALLY A VERY GOOD THING BECAUSE THESE BIG HYPERSCALERS IN THE U.S. ARE GOING TO -- YOU PROBABLY SAW PUTTING $15 BILLION INTO MALAYSIA. THEY WILL PUT THESE PLANTS THAN ASIA AND SAY, YOU KNOW WHAT, THESE RETURN QUERIES MIGHT TAKE AN EXTRA SECOND LONGER THAN BEFORE BUT WHEN PEOPLE ARE WAITING 15 SECONDS FOR A QUERY RESULT OR DOING IT OVERNIGHT QUERY, WHO CARES ABOUT AN EXTRA SECOND? UNFORTUNATELY WHAT THE U.S. STATES ARE GOING TO LOSE, ASIA WILL PROBABLY PICK UP UNLESS WE GET A LOT SMARTER OVER HERE THIS. HELLO? HASLINDA: DAN, LET ME PICK UP ON THAT. HE PICKED UP ON HOW ASIA WILL BENEFIT. WE ARE SEEING THE SELLOFF IN ASIA AS WELL. TAKE A LOOK AT KOREA, THE LIKES OF SAMSUNG, SK HYNIX -- THEY ARE MASSIVELY DOWN. SURELY, THAT HAS TO DO WITH THE CONCENTRATION RISK AS WELL, NO? DAN: ABSOLUTELY BUT YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER THE U.S., THE BIGGEST STOCKS IN THE WORLD GET CRUSHED IN THE UNITED STATES, OF COURSE ASIA WILL GET CRUSHED BEHIND IT. YESTERDAY, YOU HAD A MOVE THAT MADE ZERO CENTS WHICH YOU HAD MIDTERMS. NAMES LIKE CATERPILLAR ON THE CONSTRUCTION SIDE, GE VERNOVA, BLOOM ENERGY -- ALL THESE DIFFERENT COMPANIES IN THE AI INFRASTRUCTURE TRADE GOING DOWN AND INVESTORS THOUGHT MICROSOFT, AMAZON, GOOGLE, THEY WILL BE WORTH MORE. THAT DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE. TODAY, YOU SAW PEOPLE ADJUSTED THE FACT THAT THIS IS A FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS HAPPENING 48 HOURS AGO AND THEY STARTED REPRICING EVERYTHING. YEAH, ASIA SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN HIT. THIS IS NOT A ONE-DAY THING. THIS IS GOING TO TAKE A PERIOD OF SIX MONTHS, A YEAR FOR ALL OF THIS TO PLAY OUT BECAUSE HE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE IN THE U.S. WITH THE STATES LIKE TEXAS, GEORGIA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA. THEY SPLIT THESE DATA CENTERS COMPLETELY ON HOLD WITH THE MORATORIUM OR DOES IT TAKE LONGER? DEPENDING ON HOW THAT PLAYS OUT, THAT IS WHEN THE BENEFITS ARE GOING TO SHOW UP BECAUSE THE HYPERSCALERS ARE GOING TO SAY ALL RIGHT, WE ARE GOING TO PUT THESE PLANTS IN ASIA BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR THAT TO HAPPEN BECAUSE THIS SUITE -- SWEEP IN PARTICULARLY RED STATES WITH BIG DATA CENTER CONCENTRATIONS, THAT WAS A SURPRISE. 50% OF ALL INCREMENTED DATA CENTERS ARE GOING INTO TEXAS, GEORGIA, OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA -- THEY ALL FLIPPED. ANTHONY: IF I CAN PICK UP FROM YOUR THOUGHT. IF THIS IS AN END OF STOCK MARKET EQUITY EXCEPTIONALISM AND HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR THE PLACE ON CAPEX LIKE KOREA AND TAIWAN TO RECOVER IF AMERICAN HYPERSCALERS BUILD ELSEWHERE? DAN: I DON'T THINK IT IS THE END BECAUSE AT THE END OF THE DAY, THESE COMPANIES ARE U.S. COMPANIES. THEY ARE GOING TO DECIDE WE WILL PUT MORE PLANTS OVERSEAS. SO, BENEFITS WILL OBVIOUSLY ACCRUE TO THE SUPPLY CHAIN OR DATA CENTERS THAT THEY PUT ANOTHER COUNTRIES. BUT THE BIGGEST PLAYERS, MICROSOFT, GOOGLE, AMAZON -- THEY WILL OBVIOUSLY BE THE ULTIMATE BENEFICIARIES OF THIS GOING FORWARD. THE NEO-CLOUDS WILL BE IN A TIGHTLY TOUGHER SPOT BECAUSE THE OTHER THING YOU HAVE TO WATCH -- I TALKED ABOUT THIS AT THE SAME TIME WE HAD THE DATA CENTER ISSUE IS YOU'VE GOT A BIG AMOUNT OF PRESSURE ON TOKEN PRICES BECAUSE YOU DO HAVE AMAZING OPEN-SOURCE MODELS COMING FROM ASIA. ALSO NOW IN THE UNITED STATES WITH NVIDIA OR THE OPEN-WEIGHT MODELS COMING FROM META, YOU'VE GOT SOME REALLY GOOD ALTERNATIVES. WE WERE PUTTING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF PRESSURE ON TOKEN ASP'S. TOKEN UNITS ARE STILL GOING UP A LOT BUT YOU CAN SEE THIS WITH THE SLOWDOWN IN REVENUES, FOR EXAMPLE, WITH ANTHROPIC WHERE Q2 REVENUES WERE UP 145 PERCENT OR SO SEQUENTIALLY,, BUT Q3 REVENUES WERE UP ONLY ABOUT 43% SEQUENTIALLY AND Q4 REVENUES LOOKED LIKE THEY MAY BE UP SOMEWHERE AROUND 20%, GIVE OR TAKE. YOU ARE SEEING REVENUE GROWTH WHICH ULTIMATELY HAS TO FUND THIS STARTING TO SLOW DOWN DRAMATICALLY AT THE TWO BIG NATIVE AI PLAYERS WHICH ARE ANTHROPIC AND OPENAI. THAT BRINGS UP THE SECOND ISSUE, WHICH IS YOU HAVE TO PUT UP LOWER MULTIPLE ON A LOWER GROWTH RATE, AND FUNDING COSTS HAVE GONE UP A LOT WHERE DEBT IS MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE IF YOU ARE A MARGINAL PLAYER. EVEN IF YOU WERE DOING AND EQUITY OFFERING, THE DISCOUNT YOU WILL HAVE TO GIVE IT WILL HAVE TO BE MUCH GREATER IF YOU CAN GET THE DEAL DONE AT ALL, MUCH LIKE WITH OTHERS THAT HAVE PUSHED OUT IPO'S. IT IS GETTING A LOT MORE CHALLENGING. WERE GOING TO HAVE TO PICK STOCKS, WHICH IS GREAT IF YOU ARE A PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR BECAUSE BEFORE, YOU COULD BUY ANYTHING THAT SAID AI 30 TIMES AND IT WOULD GO UP. THAT IS NOT A HEALTHY MARKET. THE S&P 500 IS DOWN 6%. WHO CARES, RIGHT? THAT IS NOT THAT BIG OF A CORRECTION. IT IS A PROBLEM IF YOU DIDN'T MANAGE YOUR RISK WELL AND RUN 3X LEVERED SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS AND THEN GOT CRUSHED. AS I SAID EARLIER, THIS HAPPENED DURING THE INTERNET BUILD UP AS WELL, SO RISK MANAGEMENT IS SOMETHING THAT INVESTORS HAVE IGNORED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS. IT'S GOOD THIS IS HAPPENING BECAUSE IT WILL MAKE A HEALTHIER MARKET LONG-TERM VERSUS THESE VIOLENT SWINGS YOU SAW OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS OR SO. ANTHONY: HOW IMPORTANT TO YOU IS OPENAI, ANTHROPIC, THESE IPO'S ON THE LLM SITE AS A CLEARING EVENT GIVEN THE HEDGE FUND RISK HAS COME OFF SO SIGNIFICANTLY? ARE PEOPLE STILL POSITIONED TO LOAD UP ON THIS STUFF, AND HOW IS IT LOOKING WITH INCREASING COMPETITION WITH CHINA? WE SAW TENCENT WATCH A MODEL THAT IS COMPARABLE. LOOKING PRICES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN TANDEM. WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH DATA CENTERS ARE SLOW, ARE PEOPLE GOING TO PUT RISK INTO THESE LLM'S GOING FORWARD AND HOW DO YOU VIEW THAT ROTATION WITHIN THE AI TRADE? DAN: LET ME APPROACH IT DIFFERENTLY. I LOOK AT IN TERMS OF WHO ARE THE ULTIMATE WINNERS GOING TO BE? I THINK THE ULTIMATE WINNERS WILL BE, YOU BOTH WILL SAY AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT YEAR, HEY, SIRI, OR WHATEVER SAMSUNG PHONE YOU HAVE, GO DO THIS, THIS AND THIS. YOU ARE NOT GOING TO TELL IT TO USE CHATGPT, ANTHROPIC OR GEMINI. YOUR SMARTPHONE WILL GO AHEAD AND DO THAT. IF YOU ARE 25% OF THE WORLD THAT USES APPLE, APPLE WILL ULTIMATELY BE THE WINNER BECAUSE YOU WANT TO GET WHATEVER YOU WANT TO GET DONE DONE. YOU DON'T CARE WHAT AGENT DOES THAT FOR YOU. THE OTHER 75% OF THE WORLD IS SITTING ON AN ANDROID OPERATING SYSTEM ON THOSE SMARTPHONES SO I THINK GOOGLE WILL WIN. ON CONSUMER, I SEE THOSE TWO WINNING AN ENTERPRISE WILL BE MICROSOFT BECAUSE WITH ALL THESE CARES ABOUT AI WILL KILL 10% OF US AND IT'S GOING TO CAUSE MASS UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE SECURITY RISK, PEOPLE ARE VERY COMFORTABLE SAYING 250 MILLION MICROSOFT LICENSES FOR MICROSOFT 365, I WOULD JUST RUN COPILOT INSIDE THAT AND I THINK MICROSOFT WILL WIN AN ENTERPRISE FITTED THE LLM PLAYERS, I THINK YOU WILL SEE THOSE GET COMMODITIZED OVER TIME UNDERNEATH THIS BECAUSE ANDROID AND IOS, YOU ARE NOT GOING TO CARE WHAT MODELS THEY END UP USING. I LIKE TO MAKE THIS ANALOGY OF YOU DON'T NEED TO GO TO THE CORNER STORE IN A FERRARI. YOU CAN GO IN A FORD. WE DON'T NEED ANTHROPIC OR APE -- OPENAI TO SUMMARIZE YOUR EMAILS. YOU CAN USE A CHEAP OPEN-SOURCE MODEL TO DO MOST THINGS. IT IS THE TOP 5% OR 10% OF THINGS YOU NEED THOSE MODELS. HASLINDA: I JUST WANT TO JUMP IN. THE PEOPLE QUESTION -- THE QUESTION PEOPLE ARE ASKING NOW IS WHERE TO PUT YOUR MONEY. IF YOU ARE TO HAZARD A BIT FOR THE NEXT 24 MONTHS, WHAT IS THE ONE ASSET WHICH WILL OUTPERFORM THE REST? >> THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. HOW ABOUT THE NASDAQ 100? I THINK THE ONLY WAY TO PLAY AI IS BY DIVERSIFYING YOUR TECHNOLOGY PORTFOLIO, AND AFTER THAT, QQQ'S DO THAT AND YOU JUST PUT IT AWAY. HASLINDA: DO YOU AGREE? DAN: I FIND IT AMUSING THAT HE SAYS THAT IS A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO. IF YOU LOOK AT THE WAITING INSIDE THE NASDAQ 100, IT IS MASSIVELY TOP-HEAVY, WHICH IS THE SAME PROBLEM YOU HAVE WITH THE S&P 500. IT HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH FALLS WE HAVE SEEN, BUT AT ONE POINT, THE TOP 10 COMPANIES IN THE S&P 500 ARE ALL AI-RELATED NAMES, AND THEY WERE ALMOST 40% OF THE S&P 500. THEN YOU HAVE ALL THE NAMES UNDERNEATH IT LIKE CATERPILLAR -- YOU KNOW, YOU PICK YOUR FAVORITE, THE ENERGY COMPANIES THAT ARE ALL AROUND THE AI TRADE. THAT DOES NOT GET YOU DIVERSIFICATION. YOU WILL HAVE TO PICK STOCKS VERSUS BUYER AND THE NASDAQ 100. BECAUSE THE PLAYERS WITHIN THAT, YOU WILL HAVE SOME REALLY BIG WINNERS, I THINK. GOOGLE, APPLE, MICROSOFT -- HASLINDA: SO WHAT IS YOUR TOP PICK? DAN: WELL, I TOLD YOU THE THREE I LIKE. I LIKE GOOGLE, I LIKE APPLE ON THE CONSUMER SIDE, AND I LIKE MICROSOFT. THOSE ARE MY LONG-TERM PICKS. HASLINDA: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR ASSESSMENT TODAY. AND OUR VERY OWN ANTHONY STEPHENS. STILL TO COME, OIL HEADED FOR ITS BIGGEST WEEKLY LOSS SINCE APRIL ON HOPES THE IRAN WAR IS WINDING DOWN, BUT OUR NEXT GUEST THINKS FRESH U.S.-ISRAELI STRIKES ARE COMING. KEEP IT HERE WITH US. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ HASLINDA: WELCOME BACK. OIL IS ON TRACK FOR THE BIGGEST WEEKLY LOSS SINCE APRIL EVEN AS PRICES REBOUNDED SLIGHTLY FROM THE SHARP SELLOFF THAT FOLLOWED THE U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS. TRADING HAS BEEN VOLATILE AS INVESTORS WEIGH THE ASPECTS FOR AN END TO THE MONTHS-LONG WAR WITH IRAN. OUR NEXT GUEST HAS BEEN PIONEERING OIL MARKET ANALYSIS SINCE THE 1990'S. IT HAS BEEN QUITE SURPRISING THAT OIL REALLY EASED BY THAT MUCH, ON SPECULATION -- AND IT IS PURELY SPECULATION -- THAT WE WILL SEE AN END TO THE WAR. >> THE FIRST THING YOU HAVE TO DO IS SEE WHAT WOULD BE THE PRICE OF OIL IF THERE WAS NO THREAT OF WAR AT ALL. THE FUNDAMENTALS OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, THE FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THE LOWER INVENTORY LEVELS TELL US THE PRICE IS BETWEEN $80 AND $90. THAT IS THE RIGHT PRICE. ANYTHING ABOVE THAT IS A WAR RISK PREMIUM. SOME OF THAT HAS DISAPPEARED NOW BECAUSE PEOPLE THINK THAT BECAUSE OF THE NEW SITUATION, POSSIBILITIES OF A DEAL, THAT THE PREMIUM IS GONE, SO WE ARE BACK TO NON-RISK PREMIUM PRICES. HASLINDA: IS THE MARKET ASSESSING AT THE WRONG WAY, AND WHERE SHOULD PRICES BE FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE? >> SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS INDICATES $80 TO $90 IS THE RIGHT LEVEL GIVEN THE LOW INVENTORY LEVELS. I THINK NEXT YEAR THIS TIME, THE PRICE WOULD BE $65, $70, SUBSTANTIAL OVERPRODUCTION AND OVERSUPPLY IN THE MARKET. WE ARE LOOKING DOWNWARD, AND WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT JUST BEFORE THE WAR STARTED, WE COULD GET TO $60 A BARREL OIL, SO EVERYTHING HAS BEEN PUSHED UP BECAUSE OF THE WAR SITUATION. HASLINDA: YOU ARE TRACKING THE DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN CLOSELY. WHAT IS YOUR READING? ARE WE CLOSE TO A RESOLUTION? IS PRESIDENT TRUMP LIKELY TO EASE OFF? >> ABSOLUTELY NOT. NOT ONLY ARE WE NOT CLOSE TO A RESOLUTION, WE ARE WORSE OFF THAN WE WERE BEFORE DURING THE MOU. THEY SEE THAT TRUMP HAS BECOME WEEKEND, SO THEY'VE INCREASED DEMAND AND MADE REQUESTS THAT THE U.S. CAN NEVER GRANT. HASLINDA: ARE YOU EXPECTING A RESUMPTION OF ATTACKS ON IRAN? >> TWO THINGS ARE HAPPENING. ONE IS THAT THE BLOCKADE IS VERY EFFECTIVE. IRAN IS EXPORTING ALMOST NO OIL. BY THE END OF NOVEMBER, THEY WILL BE STARVING BECAUSE THERE WILL BE NO MONEY COMING IN. NO MONEY FOR PROXIES, NO MONEY TO PAY SOLDIERS, NO MONEY TO DO ANYTHING, SO THAT CONTINUES BY ITSELF, AND THAT IS UNLIKELY TO STOP. AND FROM HAS A SHORT WINDOW BETWEEN NOW AND JANUARY 3 WHEN THE NEW CONGRESSIONAL PEOPLE COME TO OFFICE. NET IN THE ALSO ALSO HAS A TWO TO THREE-MONTH WINDOW WHEN HE IS STILL PRIME MINISTER UNTIL THEY CAN FIND A RESOLUTION TO THE LEADERSHIP. IF THEY WANT TO DO SOMETHING, IT IS NOW OR NEVER, AND I THINK THEY WILL IN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. HASLINDA: IN TERMS OF FLOWS THROUGH HORMUZ, WHAT ARE YOU SEEING? WE KNOW CRUDE IS STILL FLOWING, BUT THE REFINED PRODUCTS HAVE SEEN SOME CHALLENGES. >> IF CRUDE IS GOING ABOUT 80%, INCLUDING THE PIPELINES, ABOUT 80%, 85% OF THEIR PREWAR LEVEL, THE PRODUCTS ARE NOW 30% TO 40%. SO THEY ARE DOING BETTER, AND THERE IS A LOT OF FUNNY DEALS GOING FORWARD BETWEEN GROUPS WHICH ALLOW THEIR SHIPS TO GO FORWARD. SOME COUNTRIES DID NOT HAVE ANYBODY ATTACKING THEIR SHIPS BECAUSE THEY HAVE MADE ARRANGEMENTS. I THINK THE PRODUCT SIDE NOT AS GOOD. THE LNG SIDE IS THE WORST. LESS AND LESS OF IT IS GOING OUT. THE SPOT PRICE OF LNG TODAY IS EQUIVALENT TO $200 A BARREL. HASLINDA: LET ME PICK UP ON THAT BECAUSE WE ARE HEADED TOWARDS THE WINTER MONTHS. HOW BAD MIGHT IT BE? >> IT DEPENDS HOW COLD IT WILL BE. BASED ON LAST YEAR'S PERFORMANCE, IT WILL NOT BE SO COLD, SO IT WILL NOT BE DISASTROUS, BUT IF IT BECOMES COLD, ENERGY PRICES WILL HIT $300, $400 A BARREL EQUIVALENT. THAT IS A MUCH, MUCH BIGGER DEAL THAN WHAT HAPPENS IN THE OIL MARKET. HASLINDA: THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME TODAY. STILL TO COME, FRONTERA'S CEO JOINS US FROM SHANGHAI. THE COMPANY BEHIND A QUARTER OF NEW ZEALAND'S EXPORTS HAS PLENTY RIDING ON THIS WEEK AND'S ELECTION. WE WILL ASK HOW IT PLANS TO ADDRESS CONCERNS OVER EMISSIONS COSTS. KEEP IT WITH US. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> UNEXPECTED FOR US. PEOPLE ARE REALLY STARTING TO QUESTION IF WE WILL GET THAT PRODUCTIVITY DATA, PROFITABILITY DIVIDEND, AND WHAT HAPPENED IN THE MIDTERMS PROVIDED A CATALYST FOR A BIG DOWNWARD DRAFT. >> IF THE DEMOCRATS WERE TO FOLLOW-UP WITH CLEAR GUIDELINES AND A ROAD AS TO HOW THEY WILL CONSTRAIN THE ROLLOUT OF AI AND DATA CENTERS, THEN CLEARLY WE ARE IN FOR A PERIOD OF EXTRAORDINARY VOLATILITY AND A DERATING OF AI EQUITIES. >> AI IS NOT GOING AWAY. THE INVESTMENT CYCLE IS CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO WAIT EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE HAD THESE WOBBLES. THE WOBBLES IS A FUNCTION OF MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF A REALITY CHECK. HASLINDA: SOME OF OUR GUESTS ON THE OUTLOOK FOR THE AI TRADE AMID A GLOBAL SELLOFF IN TECHNOLOGY SHARES. LET'S GO TO NEW ZEALAND WHERE I CONFERENCE IS UNDERWAY AT A PIVOTAL MOMENT FOR INVESTORS WITH MARKET SELLOFF THAT HAS HIT HEDGE FUNDS HARD. HAIDI STROUD-WATTS JOINS US LIVE FOR MORE. WHAT IS THE MOOD IN THE CONFERENCE AS THE MARKET SELLOFF HAS HIT HEDGE FUNDS REALLY, REALLY HARD? HAIDI: IT IS PRETTY CONSTRUCTIVE, ACTUALLY, BUT YOU CAN IMAGINE, WHAT A TIME FOR AROUND 500 ATTENDEES TO COME TOGETHER TO TALK ABOUT THEIR INVESTMENT THESES, TO MAKE THEIR STOCK PAGES. THERE HAS BEEN A HANDFUL OF AI-RELATED PIX. NVIDIA HAS BEEN ONE OF THE LATEST STOCK PICKS WE HAVE SEEN, INCLUDING CHIPMAKERS, BUT THERE HAS BEEN WHAT HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED AS AI-AGNOSTIC PIX AS WELL LIKE DISNEY OR ONES WHERE THEY ARE RELYING ON THE HUMAN ASPECT, FOR EXAMPLE, TO BE ABLE TO BRING RETURNS. IT IS ABOUT SAVING TIME BECAUSE CLEARLY, THE MARKET TURMOIL GOING ON IN THE BACK TRUCK CANNOT BE IGNORED, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, THERE'S A LOT OF SOUL-SEARCHING FROM INVESTMENT FUNDAMENTAL UNRAVELING OF THE SUPERSTAR TRADES WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, MONTHS, AND OVER THE PAST YEAR. IF YOU LOOK AT THE STOCK PICKS FROM LAST YEAR'S CONFERENCE, ABOUT HALF OF THOSE HAVE NOT DONE VERY WELL. THAT IS REALLY SOME CAUSE FOR REFLECTION, BUT WE WILL TALK MORE ABOUT THAT THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE REST OF OUR COVERAGE HERE, BUT ALSO, AS WE ARE ABOUT TO DISCUSS, THERE'S A LOT OF POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS, GLOBAL AND LOCAL, THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH, TOO. HASLINDA: THAT'S RIGHT. THAT ELECTION NEW ZEALAND HAS TO DEAL WITH. WHAT IS EXPECTED FROM THAT? HAIDI: IT HAS BEEN INTERESTING BECAUSE WE WERE HERE COVERING THE LAST ELECTION IN 2023, AND I REMEMBER AT THE TIME SORT OF LAUGHING BECAUSE IT WAS CHARACTERIZED AS THIS ELECTION RACE BETWEEN TWO MEN NAMED CHRIS. IT IS STILL THOSE TWO SAME-NAMED MEN IN THIS ELECTION. THIS IS TRULY AN ECONOMY-FOCUSED ELECTION. SPECIFICALLY, IT IS A COST-OF-LIVING-FOCUSED ELECTION. THIS SOUNDS VERY FAMILIAR. WE HAVE JUST SEEN THAT PLAY OUT IN THE U.S. MIDTERMS. WE SEE SOME OF THESE PRESSURES PLAY OUT IN AUSTRALIA. WHAT MAKES IT DIFFERENT WHEN IT COMES TO NEW ZEALAND IS THE CULTURAL POLITICS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS DIVISIVE OR AS POLARIZED AS WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME OF THESE OTHER POLITICAL SYSTEMS. NEITHER OF THE MAJOR PARTIES ARE PULLING PARTICULARLY WELL. THEY ARE BOTH SITTING UNDER THAT 30% LEVEL, WHICH MIGHT BE DUE TO THE SPECIFIC NATURE OF HOW THE POLITICAL SYSTEM AND ELECTORAL SYSTEM WORKS, IT WILL BE DOWN TO THE MINOR PARTIES TO BE ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY FORM A GOVERNMENT. WE ARE WATCHING THAT CLOSELY, BUT THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE PEOPLE ARE REALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE COST OF LIVING, ABOUT THE ENERGY PRICES, YOUNG PEOPLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE COST OF EDUCATION, SO VERY MUCH DOMESTICALLY FOCUSED ISSUES, EVEN IF SOME OF THEM ARE INTERNATIONALLY DRIVEN, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN IT COMES TO ENERGY COSTS. BUT THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF PERIPHERAL EVENTS OR TOPICS AT PLAY HERE FOR THIS ELECTION. HASLINDA: AT LEAST WE KNOW THAT THE WINNER IS CALLED CHRIS. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THAT. SPEAKING OF THE NEW ZEALAND ECONOMY, FRONTERA IS ONE OF THE LARGEST COMPANIES IN THE WORLD THAT ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT 25% OF NEW ZEALAND'S TOTAL MERCHANDISE EXPORTS. LET'S CROSS TO SHANGHAI WHERE MINMIN LOW IS STANDING BY WITH THE COMPANY'S CEO. MINMIN: IT IS GREAT TO BE JOINED BY THE CEO, RICHARD ALLEN, OF FRONTERA. WE JUST TALKED ABOUT THE NEW ZEALAND ELECTION AND HOW IT HAS BEEN A MAJOR FOCUS AMONG INVESTORS. HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU ABOUT A POTENTIAL CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT, AND WHAT SORT OF POLICY IMPLICATIONS IT COULD MEAN FOR FARMERS? RICHARD: ANY ELECTION IS A BIG TOPIC. IT IS A BIG DECISION FOR NEW ZEALAND. WE KNOW WE HAVE A PROUD HISTORY OF WORKING ACROSS ALL GOVERNMENTS. WE HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR 155 YEARS. WE CONTINUE TO WORK WITH WHATEVER GOVERNMENT IS IN POWER TO SHOWCASE THE ROLE OF NEW ZEALAND TO GENERATE REVENUE FOR FARMERS, BRING THAT BACK, AND CONTRIBUTE TO NEW ZEALAND. IT WILL BE A BIG DAY, BUT WHOEVER IS THEY ARE, WE ARE COMFORTABLE WE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK WITH THEM TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE GROWTH. MINMIN: FRONTERA HAS BEEN DOING PRETTY WELL. CAN YOU GIVE US A BREAKDOWN OF HOW YOUR GREATER CHINA SALES HAVE BEEN DOING YEAR ON YEAR? RICHARD: GREATER CHINA HAS LONG BEEN A STRATEGIC MARKET FOR US, REPRESENTS ABOUT 1/3 OF OUR BUSINESS, AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE EVOLUTION OF OUR BUSINESS. OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS, WE HAVE BEEN A OUR VALUE-ADDED PORTION OF OUR BUSINESS. PRODUCTS INTO BAKERIES, RESTAURANTS, AND WE HAVE SEEN DAIRY GROWTH IN THAT CHANNEL, BUT IN OUR INGREDIENTS BUSINESS, GROWTH OF THINGS LIKE PROTEINS TO SUPPORT HEALTHY AGING. FOR US, IT IS ABOUT EVOLVING THE PRODUCTS WE SELL IN THIS MARKET, BUT IT IS A REALLY IMPORTANT MARKET AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SAVED. MINMIN: HOW BIG IS THE SALES GROWTH YOU EXPECT IN THE NEXT FEW QUARTERS, AND PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE NEW PRODUCTS, THE BAKERIES, SUPPLY, AND ALL THAT? ARE YOU FACING A LOT OF COMPETITION GIVEN HOW THE MACRO OUTLOOK HAS BEEN VERY DEPRESSED SO FAR? RICHARD: IN GARY, THERE IS ALWAYS A LOT OF COMPETITION. THAT IS GREAT. KEEPS US ON OUR TOES, KEEPS US INNOVATING. WE SEE GROWTH ACROSS CHINA, BUT FOR US, IT IS A LOT LESS ABOUT VOLUME GROWTH BUT ABOUT VALUE GROWTH, AND WORKING WITH THE RIGHT CUSTOMERS THROUGH CHINA WHERE WE CAN SUPPORT THEM IN CREATING PRODUCTS THAT DELIGHT CONSUMERS, BE IT RESTAURANTS OR A LARGE MULTINATIONAL BRAND, WE SUPPORT THEM ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. BUT VALUE IS OUR KEY STRATEGY. MINMIN: GIVEN THE DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES AND PRICE COMPETITION, ARE CLIENTS PRESSURING YOU TO LOWER YOUR COSTS? RICHARD: THERE IS ALWAYS PRESSURE, RIGHT? THERE'S ALWAYS PRESSURE TO ENSURE THE PRODUCTS WE DELIVER TO CUSTOMERS MEAN THAT THEY CAN PRODUCE PRODUCTS THAT ARE PROFITABLE FOR THEM THAT DELIGHT THEIR CONSUMERS. THE CUSTOMER WILL NOT BE A CUSTOMER FOR LONG IF THEY ARE NOT MAKING MONEY, RIGHT? OUR JOB IS HOW TO WE TAKE DAIRY AND HELP THEM CREATE PRODUCTS? THAT IS WHERE WE RELY ON INNOVATION, DOING SMART THINGS WITH DAIRY TO ADD IT TO CUSTOMERS' PRODUCTS TO DELIGHT CUSTOMERS. MINMIN: PRICING POWER-WISE, YOU ARE STILL COMMANDING A PREMIUM IN THIS MARKET? RICHARD: PRICES MOVE DAILY. IT IS A VERY DYNAMIC MARKET. WE ARE VERY MUCH FOCUSED ON THE QUALITY AND FUNCTIONALITY OF OUR PRODUCTS. WE ARE CERTAINLY NOT THE CHEAPEST IN THE MARKET, BUT WE ARE COMPETITIVE WITH RESPECT TO WHAT YOU GET WHEN YOU USE OUR PRODUCTS. THINGS LIKE GRASS FED, THE FACT THAT OUR COWS SPEND 350 DAYS A YEAR ON THE GRASS OUTSIDE. THOSE THINGS MATTERS TO CONSUMERS, AND THAT IS WHERE WE ARE ADDING VALUE. MINMIN: WE ARE SEEING MORE CHINESE CUSTOMERS GOING INTO THE PROCESSING BUSINESS, MANUFACTURING CHEESE PRODUCTS. HOW DO YOU FEND OFF DOMESTIC COMPETITION? RICHARD: IT IS A NATURAL EVOLUTION OF AN INDUSTRY. THE INDUSTRY HERE HAS GROWN TREMENDOUSLY. THEY ARE REALLY INNOVATIVE, THEY WORK HARD, THEY ADOPT FAST, AND THE QUALITY OF THE PRODUCT BEING PRODUCED IS ALWAYS IMPROVING. FOR US, THOUGH, WE FOCUS ON OUR STRENGTHS. WE FOCUS ON THOSE THAT REALLY VALUE DAIRY THE WAY WE MAKE IT. PRODUCING NATURAL, NUTRITIOUS, FUNCTIONAL DAIRY PRODUCTS, THAT IS WHAT WE FOCUS ON, BUT THERE HAS BEEN AWESOME EVOLUTION IN THE CHINESE DAIRY INDUSTRY. MINMIN: YOU HAVE SIX APPLICATION CENTERS THAT ARE COMMERCIAL KITCHENS AND TEST LABS FOR YOU IN CHINA. WHAT NEW INNOVATIONS ARE YOU SEEING, AND ARE YOU ABLE TO USE CHINA AS A TESTBED AND SCALE IDEAS THAT ORIGINATE IN CHINA TO THE REST OF THE WORLD? RICHARD: COMMERCIAL KITCHENS HAVE A BAKERY KITCHEN, A PIZZA KITCHEN, A HOT KITCHEN, THEY PRIMARILY SUPPORT OUR FOOD SERVICE BUSINESS. CHINA HAS BEEN THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF OUR FOOD SERVICE BUSINESS FOR SOME TIME, RIGHT? WE LOOK AT -- WE LOCATE THEM STRATEGICALLY IN DIFFERENT REGIONS TO ALLOW US TO TAKE OUR DAIRY PRODUCTS AND LOCALIZED THEM FOR THE LOCAL FLAVORS, THE LOCAL FOODS THAT ARE NEEDED IN THE REGION. CHINA IS VERY DIVERSE. WE JUST OPENED A NEW APPLICATION CENTER, SO IT'S LIKE, HOW DO YOU TAKE THE BEST OF WHAT WE KNOW WITHIN DAIRY AND BAKERY PRODUCTS, AND THEN LOCALIZE IT FOR MORE TRADITIONAL DISHES IN THEIR REGION? BUT CHINA CONTINUES TO PLAY A ROLE IN INNOVATION REGIONALLY ACROSS SOUTH EAST ASIA AND EVEN WIDER. THINGS LIKE THE BIRTH OF THE SEA WITH THE CREAM AND CHEESE TOPPING, THAT WAS BORN IN CHINA, AND YOU CAN FIND THAT NOW RIGHT AROUND THE WORLD. WE PICK UP THINGS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD AND ARE ABLE TO BRING THEM TO CHINA. MINMIN: WHAT IS YOUR FUTURE STRATEGY IN CHINA? ARE YOU PLANNING TO EXPAND MORE WITH NEW APPLICATION CENTERS? RICHARD: WE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GROWTH AND CONTINUE TO WORK WITH CUSTOMERS WHERE WE CAN FIND MUTUAL WAYS TO WIN AND ENSURE THAT WHEN WE USE OUR DAIRY PRODUCTS, IT ALLOWS OUR CUSTOMERS TO GET AHEAD AND TO DELIGHT THEIR CONSUMERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT WAYS IN WHICH WE SUPPORT THEM. ALONGSIDE OUR APPLICATION CENTERS, WE WORK WITH A NUMBER OF DISTRIBUTORS ACROSS CHINA TO SUPPORT THEM IN A SETTING UP THEIR APPLICATION CENTERS SO THEY CAN GO OUT THERE AND WORK WITH THEIR CUSTOMERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK BEHIND THIS MARKET. WE NEED TO EVOLVE HOW WE DO THAT. CHINA IS CHANGING FAST. FOR US, IT IS ALWAYS LOOKING FOR THE RIGHT WAY TO ENSURE OUR CUSTOMERS STAY HERE. MINMIN: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. DEFINITELY A FAST-MOVING MARKET THAT IS KEEPING YOU ON YOUR TOES. HASLINDA: DID SOMEONE SAY MOLOCH -- DID SOMEONE SAY MALA? I AM ALL IN. UP NEXT, WE ARE LIVE FROM THE CONFERENCE IN NEW ZEALAND UNPACKING THE AI SELLOFF AND IF IT IS A BLIP OR A BUBBLE BURSTING. KEEP IT HERE WITH US. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ HASLINDA: WELCOME BACK. YOU ARE WATCHING \"INSIGHT.\" ONE-STOP WE ARE WATCHING HIS ADANI PORTS. THE COMPANY ANNOUNCED IT WILL ACQUIRE A KEY LIQUID STORAGE PROVIDER IN EUROPE IN A DEAL THAT GIVES THE COMPANY A FOOTHOLD IN A MAJOR ENERGY HUB. LET'S GO TO THE CONFERENCE IN QUEENSTOWN, NEW ZEALAND, WHERE OUR OWN HAIDI STROUD-WATTS IS STANDING BY. HAIDI: THANK YOU. WE ARE SORT OF COMING TO THE SECOND HALF OF THE COVERAGE. WE HAVE HEARD SOME REALLY INTERESTING STOCK PICKS, AND AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF ALL THIS HAS BEEN THE MARKET MELTDOWN AGAINST AI AND TECH. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE BIGGER PICTURE NOW. IT IS A LITTLE BIT WINDY. IT IS A LITTLE BIT LOUD WITH PLANES TAKING OFF AND LANDING JUST BEHIND US, BUT A LOT TO TALK ABOUT. LET'S START WITH HOW INCREDIBLY EXHAUSTED YOU MUST BE IN TERMS OF HAVING THE REMIT OF COVERING GEO STRATEGY AND GEOPOLITICS. >> IT IS A PRETTY FULL-TIME JOB. WHEN YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT HOW EVERYTHING HAPPENING EVERYWHERE FITS INTO THE PICTURE AND SUPPORTS THE BIG PICTURE VIEW OR FORCES YOU TO CHANGE IT, IT IS A VERY TIRING JOB. HAIDI: IS THERE A JUMPING OFF POINT? YOU HAVE SAID IN THE PAST EVERYTHING IS TO DO WITH U.S.-CHINA. IS THAT HOW YOU VIEW EACH INDIVIDUAL CONSTRUCT? MICHAEL: IN THE SIMPLEST TERMS, ABSOLUTELY. YOU HAVE TO START WITH FUNDAMENTALS AND THE FOUNDATION FROM WHICH EVERYTHING BUILDS. THE REGIONS THAT CAN BE SO DEEP DOWN IN THE SUBSTRATA THAT YOU ARE NOT LOOKING DIRECTLY STILL INTERRUPT AT TIMES. AT OTHERS, IT IS VERY DIRECTLY ABOUT THAT. OTHERS ARE THE SPECIAL SAUCE THAT GOES ON TOP, BUT THAT THE COMBINATION YOU NEED. HAIDI: WHAT IS THE SPECIAL SAUCE? MICHAEL: VAST AMOUNTS OF READING ACROSS AN AWFUL LOT OF DIFFERENT TOPICS. NOT JUST FINANCIAL MARKET METRICS. YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT NOT JUST GEOPOLITICAL MOVES AND OBSCURE GEOPOLITICAL NEWS THAT CAN HAVE A DOMINO EFFECT AND NOT JUST OBSCURE POLITICAL NEWS TO TRY TO SEE WHAT THE TRENDS MAY BE GOING FORWARD, BUT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN SOCIETY, WHAT IS HAPPENING IN CULTURE. ALL KINDS OF THINGS COULD BE INDICATORS OF TRENDS. HAIDI: NONE MORE FASCINATING PERHAPS AT THE MOMENT THAN THE SHIFT WE SEE IN THE U.S. WITH THE MARKETS CLEARLY STILL PERCOLATING THROUGH THE IMPACT OF THE MIDTERM RESULTS. IS IT MEANINGFUL IN TERMS OF THE NEXT TWO YEARS BUT ALSO BEYOND? MICHAEL: POTENTIALLY, IT IS EXTREMELY MEANINGFUL. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A VERY VIOLENT MARKET REACTION IN TWO DIFFERENT WAYS. FIRST, OIL MARKETS COLLAPSED BECAUSE EVERYONE THOUGHT IT WOULD MEAN PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. I DON'T THINK IT DOES -- SPOILER -- THAT IS WHAT MARKETS THOUGHT. THEN HAVE THE SELLOFF IN EQUITIES WHEN EVERYONE THOUGHT MAYBE DEMOCRATS DO NOT HAVE THE SAME POLICY TOWARDS AI AS A DID, AND YOU SAW THE SELLOFF IN THE TECH SECTOR. BUT WE DON'T KNOW WHAT TRUMP AND THE DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO DO OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS. WILL THEY COOPERATE? WILL THEY HAVE SOME KIND OF CONSENSUS? WILL THE DEMOCRATS PUT FORTH SPENDING DEALS AND TRUMBULL SAY I'M NOT A TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN AND I WILL SIGN THEM? YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THESE THINGS, AND THAT IS JUST DOMESTICALLY. GEOPOLITICALLY, WHAT DOES IT MEAN AROUND THE WORLD TO HAVE A TRUMP WHO CAN STILL ACT ON FOREIGN POLICY, BUT EVERYONE KNOWS HE IS MUCH WEAKER AND MAY NOT HAVE THE PLATFORM TO CONTINUE FROM 2028 FORWARDS? HAIDI: IT SOUNDS LIKE THE RISKS ARE HEIGHTENING, ESPECIALLY IF YOU TALK ABOUT A WHITE HOUSE WHERE IT SOUNDS LIKE A BIG PARTS, KEY PARTS OF THE ADMINISTRATION -- MICHAEL: JUST TRYING TO TALK TO YOU AS A HELICOPTER GOES OVERHEAD. HAIDI: IF HE WILL BE LOSING KEY PARTS OF HIS ADMINISTRATION. IF THE PRESIDENT FEELS LIKE HE IS WEAKENED, CORNERED, UNSUPPORTED, DOES THAT GIVE RISE TO MORE RISK? MICHAEL: ABSOLUTELY. RUNNING ANY COUNTRY IS DIFFICULT, BUT RUNNING THE U.S. IS PHENOMENALLY DIFFICULT, AND IT IS BECAUSE OF THE VERY GEOPOLITICAL NATURE OF IT, WHICH I DON'T THINK I HAVE TO SPELL OUT TO YOU. WE ALL RECOGNIZE AND ON ONE LEVEL OR ANOTHER. IT'S LIKE PLAYING 3D CHESS OR 4D CHESS AS THE POPULAR MEME GOES. IT IS EXPONENTIALLY MORE DIFFICULT NOW, AND EVERYONE WHO IS PLAYING THE GAME OF CHESS AGAINST HIM IN DIFFERENT WAYS REALIZES THAT HIS ATTENTION IS TAKEN UP WITH THAT AND MAYBE HIS HAND IS NOT AS FREE AS IT WAS BEFORE. DOES THAT MEAN DEALS COULD BE STRUCK IN SOME AREAS? THAT IS ONE OUTCOME. DOESN'T MEAN THEY CAN AND PHYSICAL THINGS WILL BE STRUCK -- DOES IT MEAN THEY CANNOT AND PHYSICAL THINGS WILL BE STRUCK, MEANING VIOLENCE? HAIDI: LET'S GO BACK TO WHEN YOU SAID YOU DO NOT THINK THIS IS AN END TO THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST. ADMINISTRATION. DO YOU FEEL THAT WAY ABOUT WAR AS WELL? MICHAEL: STICKY TOFFEE PUDDING. TRUMP INTRODUCED THE TARIFFS. BIDEN DID NOT GET RID OF THEM. TRUMP EXPENDED THEM. ONE CHANGE I COULD SEE, AND THIS IS PURELY HYPOTHETICAL, YOU COULD SEE SOME ATTEMPT FROM TRUMP TO SAY LET'S TAKE TARIFFS DOWN ON CANADA, FOR EXAMPLE, OR VERSUS WESTERN ALLIES, BUT THE QUID PRO QUO VERY CLEARLY WOULD BE WE ALL HAVE TO HAVE A COMMON EXTERNAL TARIFF AGAINST CHINA, WHICH WAS A LOGICAL ENDPOINT THAT WAS CLEAR TO ME AS A LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR QUITE SOME TIME. MAYBE IT WILL FALL APART IF ANYTHING HAPPENS. IN TERMS OF THE WAR, THE DYNAMIC THERE HAS NOT CHANGED EITHER. OUR BASE CASE HAS BEEN FOR MONTHS THAT AFTER THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS WE WILL GET AN ESCALATION BECAUSE TRUMP NEEDS THIS TO HAVE A WIN AND THE LEAST WORST CASE IS TO CONTINUE WITH THE BLOCKADE, WHICH IS STILL VERY BAD FOR THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM, BUT IT SEEMS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY THAT YOU TALK ABOUT THOSE DEEP LAYERS THAT CONTINUE TO BE STICKY THAT ARE GOING TO TURN AROUND AND SAY, YEAH, OK, WE CAN TAKE THAT IN THE MIDDLE EAST. WE CAN HAVE A CONSTELLATION OF POWERS NOT FRIENDLY TO THE U.S. CONTROLLING THE MIDDLE EAST. THAT SEEMS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY THAT IN ONE SHAPE OR FORM WE WILL GET AN ESCALATION POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THIS WEEKEND. HAIDI: WHO IS WINNING THE GREAT STRATEGIC RIVALRY? MICHAEL: IT IS LIKE AN INCREDIBLY INTENSE POKER GAME, TO USE AN ANALOGY. BOTH SIDES HAVE REALLY STRONG CARDS AND SOME WEEK CARDS, AND DEPART ON THE TABLE JUST CONTINUES TO GET BIGGER, BUT WE ARE NOT AT THE END OF THE GAME YET. IT TENDS TO FINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND YOU START AGAIN WITH A NEW HAND IN POKER, BUT THIS IS THE SAME HAND GOING ON AND ON. THE STRATEGIES BOTH SIDES ARE EMPLOYEE AND ARE VERY EFFECTIVE IN DIFFERENT AREAS. IF YOU WERE DRAWING A VISUAL ANALOGY, TRUMP WOULD BE AT THE TABLE WITH THE CARDS IN HIS HANDS AND POTENTIALLY DEMOCRATS ARE PULLING THE CHAIR AWAY FROM THE TABLE. HAIDI: WE KNOW XI JINPING HAS A VERY STEADY SEAT. WHEN IT COMES TO AI, IS EITHER SIDE WINNING? THIS IS REALLY THE ARMS RACE, ISN'T IT? MICHAEL: YOU CAN SLICE AND DICE THE AI TOPIC LOTS OF DIFFERENT WAYS. THAT'S NOT MY AGREEMENT -- THAT'S NOT MY AGREEMENT. -- THAT'S NOT MY REMIN\\T. BOTH SIDES HAVE SAID THIS IS NATIONAL SECURITY. THEY SEEM TO THINK OF IT AS A MANHATTAN PROJECT IN TERMS OF DEAL WITH PROBLEMS. WHOEVER WINS, WHOEVER GETS THERE FIRST, AS WITH THE MANHATTAN PROJECT, NATURALLY HAS A GEOPOLITICAL OR GEO-ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE. REGARDLESS OF THE VOLATILITY, WE SAY IF THAT HYPOTHESIS IS CORRECT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INVESTMENT, BUT MAYBE NOT EVERYONE WHO HAS GOT INTO IT RECENTLY WILL BE A WINNER. POLICYMAKERS. DO YOU HAVE ENOUGH TO CONTEND WITH DOMESTIC INFLATION OR SHOULD THERE BE PLACES LIKE AUSTRALIA, BUT YOU BASICALLY HAVE TO BE A MILITARY EXPERT AS WELL, AND EVEN MILITARY EXPERTS CANNOT PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT. MICHAEL: PREDICTING THINGS LIKE BOARS IS NOTORIOUSLY HARD, BUT THANK YOU FOR RAISING THE POINT BECAUSE IT'S ONE I MADE AT THE CONFERENCE TODAY. TRADITIONALLY, CENTRAL BANKS WOULD SAY, OK, HERE IS OUR CPI REMIT, AND YOU COULD HAVE SHOCKS OCCASIONALLY. AND BE VERY TECHNOCRATIC ABOUT IT. BUT WE VERY TRANSPARENTLY NOW LIVE IN A WORLD IN WHICH THINGS ARE KNOCKED OFF COURSE BY EXTERNAL FACTORS THAT WE CAN SEE LIKE WAR, AND IT WILL NOT STOP KNOCKING OUR ECONOMIES OFF COURSE UNTIL THOSE WARS ARE FINISHED. CENTRAL BANKS HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THESE TARGETS CANNOT BE HIT UNTIL THE ENVIRONMENT CHANGES, AND THAT'S WHY CONTROVERSIALLY IN THE CONFERENCE, THE BANK WAS SET UP TO HELP FINANCE THE WAR AGAINST FRANCE. CENTRAL BANKS BACK THEN WERE SEEN AS A STATE TOOL THAT CAN BRING INFLATION DOWN, SUCH AS IT WAS MEASURED IN THOSE DAYS, BY MAKING SURE YOU HAD THE PHYSICAL MILITARY POWER TO BEAT OPPONENTS , TO PHYSICALLY CONTROL SUPPLY CHAINS, TO GET STUFF CHEAP, AND I THINK EVERYTHING OLD IS NEW AGAIN. HAIDI: GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US. HASLINDA: GREAT TO GET MICHAEL EVERY BACK ON TV. HAIDI STROUD-WATTS, WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR COVERAGE. MUCH MORE STILL TO COME. NEXT, WE DISCUSSED IF A TEXT SELLOFF REVIVES THE YEN AS A SAFE HAVEN. WE TALK ABOUT THE EXPOSURE OF SAMSUNG AND SK HYNIX. INSIGHTS ON HOW MARKETS ARE DIGESTING THE TECH ROUT WITH THE CHAIRMAN OF EDELWEISS, PLUS THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIAN PROPERTY. PLENTY MORE AHEAD IN THE NEXT HOUR OF \"INSIGHT.\" KEEP IT HERE WITH US. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ ♪ >> THINGS HAVE FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED FROM 48 HOURS AGO. THAT IS WHY YOU NEED TO REPRICE ALL OF THESE SECURITIES. UNFORTUNATELY, WHAT THE U.S. STATES ARE GOING TO LOSE, ASIA IS PROBABLY GOING TO PICK UP UNLESS WE GET ALLETE SMARTER OVER HERE ABOUT DATA CENTERS BUT AT THINK ASIA WILL REALLY BENEFIT. >> ANALYSIS INDICATES $80 TO $90 A BARREL. GIVEN THE LOW INVENTORY LEVELS. I THINK NEXT YEAR THIS TIME, THE PRICES WILL BE $65, $70. SUBSTANTIAL OVERPRODUCTION AND OVERSUPPLY IN THE MARKET. HASLINDA: WELCOME BACK. THAT WAS DAN NILES SPEAKING WITH US EARLIER. ASIAN MARKETS ARE SHARPLY DIVIDED AFTER AN AI LEAD SELLOFF HITS JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA. INDIA IS BUCKING THE REGIONAL ROUTE, WHILE TAIWAN, CHINA AND TAIWAN RECOVER. THE DOLLAR HAS SHAKEN OFF A DROP OF THE U.S. MIDTERMS TO LEAD A BIT INTO SAFE HAVENS. LET'S BRING IN ANTHONY STEPHENS TO RUN US THROUGH THESE MARKET MOVES. LOTS OF DIGESTING GOING ON RIGHT NOW. ANTHONY: THE FIREWORKS CONTINUE IN ASIAN TECH. WE CONTINUE TO SEE HEADLINES HIT THE TERMINAL AROUND HEDGE FUNDS REDUCING EXPOSURE, SHUTTING DOWN, CHANGING RISKS TO FINANCIALS. THE NET EFFECT IS A LOT OF SELLING IN BIG CAP TECH WHERE THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT TSMC, SAMSUNG, OR SOFTBANK -- OF THESE KEY POSITIONS ARE BEING CUT VERY HARD. VOLUME IS PICKING UP FOR A FRIDAY. INTO LATE YEAR, WE SEE SELLING IN TAIWAN AND KOREA, CONTINUING A TREND THAT IS IN THE $200 BILLION RANGE AT THIS MOMENT. FLIP THE BOARD AND WE CAN SEE WHO WAS THE BENEFICIARY AND THAT IS INDIA. THE ONLY FIREWORKS AS THIS CONTINUES TO OUTPERFORM ON STRONG CONSUMER RESULTS. BHARTI BENEFITING FROM A NEW PUSH INTO HIGH-SPEED INTERNET. HOSPITALS HAVE DECENT RESULTS. INDIAN TECH WILL BENEFIT FROM A ROTATION OUT OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR TRADE AT THE BROADER MACRO LEVEL. THE BACK OF ALL THIS CONSUMER DEBT THAT IS BEING TAKEN ONTO FUND CONSUMPTION. IT WILL BE IN INTERESTING TEST OF THAT DYNAMIC, HOW MUCH CONSUMPTION COMES THROUGH FROM A NEWLY RICH INDIA. WE CAN TALK ABOUT FX, BECAUSE THE DOLLAR DID GET A RIGHT AFTER THE MIDTERMS. IT GOT HIT QUITE HARD ON PERCEPTIONS THAT U.S. GROWTH WOULD BE SLOWING BUT NOW INTO THE TECH COLLAPSE, THE DOLLAR IS ROARING BACK AS PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR OLD SCHOOL SAFE HAVENS. GOLD ISN'T PERFORMING, BITCOIN IS NONPERFORMING. EUROPE IS STRUGGLING. SO, TO THE DOLLAR IS BACK AS PEOPLE TAKE DOWN RISK AND COVER THEIR INCREMENTAL SHOTS AND WE'LL BRING IT TO THE SIMPLEST POSSIBLE TRADES. HASLINDA: THANK YOU, ANTHONY. LET'S GET MORE ON THE MARKET OUTLOOK WITH CLAUDIO PIRON AT BOFA GLOBAL RESEARCH. WE TALKED ABOUT THE DOLLAR GETTING HIT AND THAT IS A REASON THE LIKES OF THE KOREAN WON AND DOLLAR ARE PRETTY RESILIENT RIGHT NOW EVEN THOUGH WE SEE THE SELLOFF IN THE EQUITY MARKETS. CLAUDIO: I AGREE WITH ANTHONY, THIS TAKING MORE OF A CONSERVATIVE POSITION SO THE DOLLAR IS BEING RE-SUPPORTED AGAIN. ON DOLLAR TAIWAN AND DOLLAR KOREA, THEY HAVE DEPRECIATED A LITTLE BIT, MORE SO TAIWAN. WHAT WE WERE LOOKING AT WAS THE CORRELATION OF ASIAN AND EMERGING-MARKET CURRENCIES WITH AIQ, TO GIVE YOU A PROXY. TAIWAN WAS THE MOST CORRELATED. IT IS KIND OF CONSISTENT WITH THAT AND I WOULD SUGGEST IT IS LARGELY POSITIONING SQUEEZE GOING ON IN THE MARKET. WHAT PROVIDES SUBSTANTIAL COVER FOR BOTH TAIWAN AND KOREA IS THE SIZE OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES. I THINK THAT WILL COME INTO PLAY. I WOULD SAY THE MARGIN THAT THESE LEVELS PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PEOPLE TO ENTER INTO LONG KOREAN WON POSITIONS BUT I WOULD SUGGEST THAT IS THE WAY. HASLINDA: FOR TAIWAN AND KOREA, THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE IN TECH THAT BUFFERS ARE THERE TO TO PROVIDE THE SUPPORT? CLAUDIO: I THINK SO BECAUSE THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS GOING ON. THERE IS A PORTFOLIO FLOW SIDE. ON THE OTHERS, THESE CONTRACTS HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED FOR AI AND A LOT OF THE INVESTMENT IN PLAY. VERY DIFFICULT TO CANCEL. FOR THE COMING SIX MONTHS, 12 MONTHS WE STILL SEE WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF CORPORATE SELLING OF DOLLARS RESULTING FROM THOSE EXPORTS COMING THROUGH. WE HAVE DONE A RANGE OF SCENARIOS FOR DOLLAR KOREA. UNDER EXTREME AI SELLOFF, WE WOULD GET SOME DEPRECIATION OF THE KOREAN WON. BUT IF WE WERE TO HAVE A STABILIZATION IN THE AI MARKET, TECH MARKET COMES BACK IN, THEN THE KOREAN WON APPRECIATION SHOULD BE INTACT. I THINK IT IS STILL EARLY DAYS. IT IS CLEARLY VERY VOLATILE OUT THERE BUT ONCE WE FIND OUR FEET -- ONCE -- ONE THING I WILL SAY ABOUT AI AS TECHNOLOGY, TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ONLY GOES ONE WAY. IT NEVER GOES BACKWARD. THE INVESTMENT CYCLE WILL FIND ITS WAY BUT AT THE MOMENT, IT IS THE POSITIONING AN ABRUPT PORTFOLIO FLOW DISRUPTING EVERYTHING. HASLINDA: IT IS ALSO THE DOLLAR STORY. DOLLAR STRENGTH HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY U.S. EXCEPTIONALISM AND THAT IS LINKED TO AI AND THAT IS GONE FOR THE MOMENT. CLAUDIO: FOR THE MOMENT. YOU ARE RIGHT TO THE EXTENT THAT INITIALLY COME OF THE WEAKNESS IN THE DOLLAR THAT DOLLAR EXCEPTIONALISM. IT GOES TO THE POINT OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE PORTFOLIO MARKET. STORY. YOU SAW IT PARTICULARLY WHAT HAS BEEN TRANSFORMATIVE OVER THE PAST 5, 10 YEARS. 10, 15 YEARS AGO, IT WAS ASIA FLOW BY U.S. TREASURIES. FOR THE PAST FIVE YEARS, IT HAS BEEN ASIAN FLOWS BY U.S. EQUITIES, SPECIFICALLY U.S. TECH EQUITIES. WE HAVE GOT A FLUSHING OUT OF THESE POSITIONS, A SQUEEZE THAT IS GOING ON AND THAT HAS HAD THE REPERCUSSION FOR THE DOLLAR. IT CUTS BOTH WAY FOR THE DOLLAR. THAT POINT IS QUITE TRUE. RALLY. HASLINDA: WOULD IT BE FAIR TO SAY FOR THE MOMENT, THERE IS NO WAY THE DOLLAR CAN BE A HAVEN PLAY, HENCE THE ROTATION TOWARDS THE YEN? CLAUDIO: WE HAVE TO BE VERY OPEN-MINDED BECAUSE THINGS ARE MOVING AROUND A LOT. IF WE WERE TO HAVE A MORE SEVERE SHORT-TERM BASIS. BECAUSE THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE, EXACTLY. FOR ONE MONTH, TWO MONTH WINDOW, YOU FIND THE DOLLAR WILL BENEFIT AS A CONSEQUENCE. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE THE DECEMBER PRICING OF THE FED HIKE AND THAT HAS BEEN TAKEN DOWN ABOUT FIVE TO SIX BASIS POINTS. LET'S SEE WHAT NONFARM PAYROLLS DOES TONIGHT AS WELL. UNLESS YOU GET THE PRICING OUT OF THE DECEMBER RATE HIKE, AND A SENSE IN THE MARKET THAT THE HIKING CYCLE IS DONE AND THAT WOULD JEOPARDIZE, IN A CERTAIN SENSE, ONCE THE MARKET SINCE HIS STINT IN EXTREME -- I AM PLAYING OUT SCENARIOS HERE. BUT UNDER AN EXTREME SCENARIO THIS IS GETTING A LOT WORSE AND THERE NEEDS TO BE SOME EASING, THEN THE DOLLAR STRENGTH STARTS TO FADE. FOR THE TIME BEING, IT IS FAIR TO SAY THERE'S A LOT OF MOMENTUM BEHIND THE U.S. ECONOMY THAT REMAINS THE BASELINE THAT WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR HIKING FROM THE FED. THAT ESTABLISHES A FLOOR FOR THE DOLLAR. HASLINDA: THE BASE CASE FOR THE DOLLAR RIGHT NOW IS A HIGHER TRAJECTORY? CLAUDIO: FOR THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS, YES, AND MONTHS. I THINK IT HAS REALLY STABILIZED AND WE GO FURTHER. WE STILL LOOK FOR AN APPRECIATION OF THE CURRENCY. WHERE WE STAND ON DOLLAR KOREA FOR YEAR END, WE ARE AT 13.30. HASLINDA: HOW ABOUT DOLLAR-YEN? WE ARE SEEING YEN STRENGTH IN ON THE BACK OF ALL OF THIS. CLAUDIO: WHEN YOU ARE GOING INTO THAT REALM OF WHO IS SAFE, TO A CERTAIN DEGREE, OUR YEN STRATEGIST HAS BASICALLY BEEN QUITE BULLISH FOR SOME TIME NOW. WE HAVE BEEN DOING -- LOOKING FOR DOLLAR-YEN AT 147. WE THINK THE PAYMENT DYNAMICS HAVE CHANGED. WE HAVE MORE INFLOW GOING INTO JAPAN. THE YIELDS PUSHING HIGHER HAS QUELLED A LITTLE BIT OF THAT OUTFLOW AS WELL. YEN IS BENEFITING AND GOING BACK TO WHAT I'M SAYING ABOUT THE CORRELATION FOR CURRENCIES WITH AI ETF'S A PROXY FOR AI, YOU FOUND TAIWAN WAS ON ONE EXTREME IN TERMS OF SELLING OFF AI, AND THE OTHER EXTREME WERE VERY LOW CORRELATION WAS YEN. I THINK THAT PIVOT POINT BETWEEN AGAIN IS PROVIDING A PULL UP AS WELL. THE THREE CURRENCIES THAT HAVE STOOD OUT FOR STABILITY OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS HAVE BEEN DOLLAR, ALTHOUGH THE MORE WOBBLY ONE AND THEN YEN AND SWISS FRANC. HASLINDA: FOR A VERY LONG TIME, WE TALKED ABOUT THE POSSIBLE REPATRIATION OF JAPANESE FUNDS COMING BACK HOME. ARE WE SEEING THAT? IS THE MOMENT COMING? CLAUDIO: WE ARE ALWAYS WATCHING VERY CLOSELY. JAPAN. I THINK THIS WILL BE A CALIBRATED APPROACH. THEY DON'T ACT LIKE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE MARKET OVERNIGHT. THEY ARE MATCHING LIABILITIES AND SO FORTH. THAT FLOW TENDS TO HAPPEN ON A GLACIAL SIDE OF THINGS. HASLINDA: DO WE SEE AND UNRAVELING OF THE AI TRADE AND MAY A SOFTENING OF CAPEX SPENDING IN THE U.S.? CLAUDIO: I THINK IT WILL BE A TRIGGER TOWARD SEEING HOW THINGS DEVELOP. DON'T GET CARRIED AWAY WITH 24 HOURS OR 48 HOURS BUT MAYBE WE WILL START TO SEE MARKETS TILT BACK TOWARDS FIXED INCOME AGAIN. IT HAS BEEN ALL THE RAGE FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS OF ALLOCATIONS INTO THE EQUITY MARKETS. THAT HAS ALSO BEEN A FUNCTION OF THE SUPERIOR TERMS WE HAD IN EQUITIES AND A DROUGHT OF THE YIELDS SO LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF VERY NOTABLE GLOBAL FIXED INCOME INVESTORS SAYING I HAVE BEEN WAITING ALL MY LIFE FOR YIELDS BACK TO WHERE I CAN GET 7%. IF THAT WERE TO REMAIN -- I THINK IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT LONG TERM, I THINK IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE YIELDS GOING BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE AT THAT VERY LOW -- PARTLY BECAUSE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE DEMOGRAPHICS, THE PHYSICAL POSITIONS, IT WILL TAKE MANY YEARS TO REPAIR SOME OF THE FISCAL POSITIONS WE HAVE GLOBALLY, PARTICULARLY IN THE G10. IN ADDITION TO THAT, IF WE HAVE THIS REAL SECULAR WITH COMPETITION FOR CAPITAL. THAT COMPETITION IS NOT SOLELY ON TECH, BUT THERE ARE NUMBER OF RISING OTHER ECONOMIES IN THE WORLD THAT REQUIRE A LOT OF INVESTMENT AS WELL. I THINK WE ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT A DECADE OR VIEW WHERE WE WILL HAVE HIGHER RATES WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE COMPETITIVE AND EQUITIES. HASLINDA: WE HAVE BEEN TALK ABOUT THE AI PLAYS, BUT THERE ARE ALSO THE NON-AI PLAYS. THERE HAS BEEN A ROTATION INTO INDIA. I'M JUST WONDERING -- HAVE NOT SEEN THIS MASSIVE SELLOFF, WOULD PEOPLE BE MORE DIVERSIFIED? CLAUDIO: YEAH, I THINK SO. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THE ASIAN PERSPECTIVE ARE TWO DOMINANT FACTORS. ONE IS THE AI TECH FACTOR THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING NORTH EAST ASIA AND THE OTHER ONE HAS BEEN THE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCK FROM HIGHER ENERGY OIL PRICES. WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN THE BACKGROUND IS OIL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING LOWER, DISCUSSING THE PREVIOUS PIECE. THAT IS HELPING A LOT PARTICULARLY FOR INDIA, POTENTIALLY FOR THE PHILIPPINES AS WELL. HASLINDA: INDONESIA. CLAUDIO: HOPEFULLY AS WELL. THE TRANSMISSION IS MORE ABOUT THE COST ON THE FISCAL SIDE BUT THOSE THREE COULD BE BENEFICIARIES OF THE LOW OIL PRICES AND TREASURY YIELDS COMING LOWER A BIT AND A LESS AGGRESSIVE POTENTIAL FED CYCLE. THOSE STAND TO BENEFIT. THAT WOULD ALLOW YOU SOME ROTATION BACK TO A MORE DEFENSIVE IDIOSYNCRATIC PLAY. THAT IS WHAT MAY BE PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR, IDIOSYNCRATIC OPPORTUNITIES THAT DIVERSIFY AWAY FROM THE VERY LARGE AI FACTOR THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING A LOT OF THE MARKET. HASLINDA: THANK YOU FOR BEING ON THE SHOW, CLAUDIO PIRON AT BOFA GLOBAL RESEARCH. KOREA'S MEMORY CHIPMAKERS ARE AT THE CENTER OF THIS TECH ROUT IN ASIA. KB FINANCIAL'S PETER KIM WILL BE UNPACKING SOLAR INVESTOR SENTIMENT OVER SK HYNIX AND SAMSUNG. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ HASLINDA: WELCOME BACK. WE ARE STILL WATCHING KOREAN CHIP STOCKS, AMONG THE HARDEST HIT IN TODAY'S TECH ROUT. THE COST BE EXPERIENCED A TRADING HALT AND BRIEFLY DIPPED BELOW THE KEY 5000 LEVEL. REGULATORS HAVE SINCE WAIVED COLLATERAL RULES, AND THE INDEX HAS REPAIRED AND STRUCK. LET'S GET MORE WITH PETER KIM, GLOBAL STRATEGIST AT KB FINANCIAL GROUP. WHAT IS THIS -- A CORRECTION OR AN UNWINDING OF A CROWDED TRADE? PETER: UM, BOTH? A LOT HAS HAPPENED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. MOST OF THIS AI RALLY THIS YEAR, IT WAS DRIVEN BY EARNINGS, AND EQUITY INVESTORS, INCLUDING MYSELF, HAVE HUNG ONTO THAT STRONG FUNDAMENTAL, BUT OBVIOUSLY, OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS, WE HAVE HAD RISING CONCERNS ON A MACRO FRONT INDICATED BY THE BOND MARKET. WE HAD INFLATION PRESSURE COMING FROM IRAN, AND NOW WE HAVE THE POLITICAL RISK COMING FROM THE U.S., SO A LOT HAS BEEN BUILDING UP THAT HAS NOW UNDERMINED WHAT WE THOUGHT WOULD BE A FAIRLY VISIBLE AND SUSTAINABLE EARNINGS GROWTH THAT WE SAW FROM AI PLAYERS. HASLINDA: YOU ARE SAYING THE FUNDAMENTALS HAVE DETERIORATED? HOW BAD? PETER: OBVIOUSLY, AT ALL MATTERS ON NOT JUST THE AI EARNINGS FRONT, BUT ALSO THE MACRO FRONT. THE BOND MARKET HAS SIGNALED ITS CONCERNS ABOUT HOW SUSTAINABLE THIS AI SPENDING IS. OBVIOUSLY MELTED INTO THAT CONCERN IS THE GEOPOLITICAL RISK PAIR NEXT SIX MONTHS WILL BE VERY CRITICAL. IF THAT SENTIMENT HAS NOW RECONFIGURED ITSELF TO NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT A NEW WORLD OF NOT JUST INTEREST RATES BUT ALSO THE AI SPENDING, AND THE REACTION THAT WE WILL SEE FROM THE BOND MARKETS, SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INDICATORS FOR US TO LOOK FOR. THAT MAKES ME FEEL THAT UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS CORRECTIONS OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS, WE MAY NOT SEE THAT SHARP, V-SHAPED RECOVERY THAT EQUITY INVESTORS HAVE BEEN SO USED TO SEEING. HASLINDA: WE SEE THE KOSPI DOWN CURRENTLY 5.6%. IT WAS DOWN MORE THAN 8% EARLIER TODAY. IT IS PAIRING THOSE LOSSES. PEOPLE SEEM TO BE CONFIDENT AGAIN. PETER: IN A SELLOFF LIKE THIS, I THINK IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THAT CONFIDENCE TO COME BACK. WE HAVE TO REMEMBER, ONLY LAST WEEK, WE HAD A VERY GOOD FLOW OF EARNINGS. THAT WAS VERY MUCH A RETROSPECTIVE. I THINK WE PROBABLY NEED TO SEE THE NEXT ROUND OF QUARTERLY EARNINGS TO CONFIRM SOME OF THE OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK, BUT PROBABLY EVEN FURTHER OUT. WHAT IS AI OUTLOOK FOR ALL THE PLAYERS INVOLVED? I THINK OBVIOUSLY, THESE CONCERNS ABOUT DATA CENTER PLANNING THAT WE MAY SEE UNDER THE DEMOCRATIC RULE IN THE U.S., THAT WILL TAKE A WHILE. CERTAINLY FROM AN EARNINGS PERSPECTIVE, I THINK THE MARKET IS VERY CONCERNED ABOUT NOT THIS YEAR'S EARNINGS, MAYBE NOT EVEN NEXT YEAR'S EARNINGS, THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT 2, 3 YEARS OUT, AND THAT IS THE PART THAT FOR US WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR INVESTORS SEGMENT TO COME BACK. HASLINDA: IT IS ESSENTIALLY ABOUT SK HYNIX AND SAMSUNG AND THEIR LOSSES ARE BEING AMPLIFIED, RIGHT? HOW ARE YOU ASSESSING THAT? PETER: WE SEE THAT A K-SHAPED STRUCTURE IN ECONOMY, MARKET, WAGE GROWTH -- IT IS EVERYWHERE. KOREA AS USUAL HAS PROVEN ITSELF TO BE ANOTHER OF THOSE CONCENTRATED MOMENTUM-DRIVEN HERD-MENTALITY MARKETS. FOR MOST OF LAST YEAR, WE TALKED ABOUT HOW MARKET REFORM WAS GOING TO RELIEVE A LOT OF THE CONCENTRATION RISK, BUT HERE WE ARE. I THINK SK HYNIX AND SAMSUNG FOR THE ECONOMY IS DOING A LOT OF THE HEAVY LIFTING, AND THAT IS GOOD, AND I THINK AGAIN, NEXT YEAR'S EARNINGS SEEMS PRETTY RELIABLE. THAT'S BECAUSE WE HAVE A STRUCTURALLY POSITIVE TREND OF SEMICONDUCTOR PLAYERS NOW BEING ABLE TO LOCK IN LONG-TERM CONTRACTS, AND SOME OF THESE CONTRACTS UP TO FIVE YEARS. WE UNDERSTAND THE LATEST EARNINGS SEASON THAT BOTH SK HYNIX AND SAMSUNG HAVE GUIDED FOR 50% OF THEIR ORDER BOOK IS NOW LONG-TERM. I FEEL LIKE THIS CORRECTION IS ON BOTH THE MACRO-RISK AND THE SENTIMENT DRIVEN, WHICH WAS ON THE WAY UPWARDS WONDERFULLY POWERFUL THROUGH THESE LEVERAGED PRODUCTS. ON THE WAY DOWN, IT HAS BEEN EQUALLY POWERFUL AND PAINFUL, SO I THINK WE NEED TO REMIND OURSELVES FUNDAMENTALLY, ALL THOSE OPTIMISTS THAT WERE BUYING ON THE WAY UP, MAYBE JUST STEP BACK A BIT AND SAY THIS IS THE TIME TO LEAN INTO FUNDAMENTALS, WHEREAS THREE MONTHS AGO, EVERYONE WAS LEANING INTO THE SHARE PRICE. HASLINDA: YOU HAVE TO QUESTION IF RETAIL INVESTORS WILL BEAR THAT IN MIND AS THEY DECIDE ON BUYING THE DIP. WHEN IT COMES TO RETAIL INVESTORS, THEY ARE SUPPORTING THE KOREAN MARKET. WE KNOW THAT LEVERAGED ETF'S HAVE BEEN REALLY POPULAR FOR THEM. HOW ARE YOU ASSESSING IF THIS IS IMPACTING PRICE DISCOVERY? PETER: RETAIL INVESTORS IN KOREA ARE NEVER REALLY RELIABLE FOR HOW THE FUNDAMENTALS CONVERGE AND DIVERGE WITH WHAT HE CONSIDERED TO BE SUSTAINABLE VALUATION OR EARNINGS VISIBILITY. MY DATA INDICATES THAT MUCH OF THE LEVERAGE MOMENTUM HAS NOW SUBSIDED. REGULATORS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB OF UNWINDING A LOT OF THAT. AGAIN, I WROTE IN A NOTE A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO THAT IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE RETAIL FOREVER TO COME BACK. TO BE HONEST, THIS TIME, WE PROBABLY DON'T NEED RETAIL FERVOR. WE ACTUALLY NEED GRADUAL FUND FLOW SEEKING PRICE DISCOVERY THAT IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SUSTAINABLE WITHOUT IT BEING SPECTACULAR. I THINK THAT'S WHAT WE WERE THINKING WE WOULD HAVE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY, WE OVERDID IT FROM MANY FRONTS, AND I FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS THAT THIS IS ONE OF THOSE MOMENTS THAT I LOOK BACK ON IN MY CAREER THAT RISK/REWARD IS FAVORING THE BUYERS RATHER THAN THE SELLERS. HASLINDA: IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THAT KOREA AND ARE ACTUALLY CHEAPER THAN INDONESIAN STOCKS. WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THE P/E RATIO, IT IS TRADING AT HALF OF INDONESIA'S P/E RATIO, AND THAT IS NOT CHEAP ENOUGH FOR PEOPLE TO BE BUYING. PETER: AND AGAIN, THE CURRENT EARNINGS AND VALUATIONS ARE NOT THE KEY CONCERNS FROM INVESTORS. CLEARLY, THEY ARE LOOKING FOR NEXT YEAR OR THE YEAR AFTER, IF THAT WILL BE THE KEY RISK. MY ANALYSTS ARE LOOKING AT THE SECOND -- MY ANALYSTS LOOKING AT THE SECTOR FEEL THAT NEXT YEAR, EARNINGS ARE ALMOST LOCKED IN. OF COURSE, THE POTENTIAL ENTRY COMING FROM CHINA DID NOT HELP MATTERS. IT HAS GONE FROM VERY MUCH GLASS HALF-FULL A FEW MONTHS AGO TO GLASS HALF-EMPTY. VALUATIONS NEXT YEAR ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT EVEN FURTHER MULTIPLE CONTRACTION, WHICH IS WHY I FEEL VERY CONFIDENT THAT THE -- THIS CURRENT CORRECTION IS AN OPPORTUNITY IF YOU GIVE YOURSELF TIME. HASLINDA: THANK YOU. STILL TO COME, SUBSCRIBERS CAN CONNECT TO THE TERMINAL FOR MORE ON THE MARKET SELLOFF. TLIV <GO> IS YOUR FUNCTION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES, PLUS COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS FROM OUR EXPERT EDITORS. STILL TO COME, ONE OF INDIA'S BIGGEST FINANCIAL NAMES JOINS US WITH HER BUSINESS OUTLOOK AND INSIGHTS ON IF INDIA CAN PROVIDE AN ESCAPE FROM THE AI SELLOFF. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ HASLINDA: WELCOME BACK. YOU ARE WATCHING \"INSIGHT.\" WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON INDIAN STOCKS AMID THE SELLOFF ACROSS ASIA. THE NIFTY 50 INDEX HAS STOOD AS THE SOLE DINNER. A COMBINATION OF IMPROVING EARNINGS, FALLING OIL PRICES, TAX CUT HOPES, AND A SELLOFF IN OTHER TECH DOMINATED MARKETS IS LOWERING FOREIGN INVESTORS -- LURING FOREIGN INVESTORS BACK. EVEN AS WE TALK ABOUT THE SELLOFF IN ASIA, IF YOU ARE IN INDIA, YOU ARE GOING LIKE, WHAT SELLOFF? >> THAT'S RIGHT. WE OPENED ON A SLIGHTLY WEAK NOTE BUT THIS WEEK WE HAVE SEEN IN OVER 6% GAIN IN THE FIRST FOUR TRADING SESSIONS. WE HAVE SEEN OVER $2 BILLION IN FOREIGN INVESTOR INFLOWS INTO INDIA'S EQUITY MARKET. AND WE ARE ON COURSE FOR WHAT COULD BE THE BEST WEEK SINCE EARLY 2021 FOR THE NIFTY 50, SO IT IS TURNING OUT TO BE A CELEBRATION IN MANY WAYS. AS YOU KNOW, THE FESTIVAL IS AROUND THE CORNER, JUST ON THE WEEKEND, AND THE STARS HAVE ALIGNED. LOWER OIL PRICES, 2% APPRECIATION IN THE RUPEE SINCE EARLY OCTOBER AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS SOME APPETITE COMING BACK, NOT JUST FOR EQUITIES, BUT INDIAN BONDS AS WELL. BUT I DON'T WANT TO DWELL ON THIS MORE BECAUSE WE HAVE AN EXPERT IN THE STUDIO WHO CAN TALK MORE ABOUT CAPITAL MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY. CHAIRMAN AND MANAGING DIRECTOR OF EDELWEISS FINANCIAL SERVICES, THE INVESTMENT HOLDING COMPANY OF A LEADING FINANCIAL CONGLOMERATE IN THE COUNTRY. GOOD MORNING. WELCOME TO BLOOMBERG. >> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. >> THE STARS ARE ALIGNING FOR A RETURN OF FOREIGN INVESTOR INTEREST IN INDIA AND MAY A PICKUP IN INDIA'S EQUITY MARKETS? >> YEAH. I THINK AFTER ALMOST MORE THAN TWO YEARS WHERE INDIA HAS BEEN OUT OF FUEL, I THINK INDIA IS STARTING TO COME BACK. EARNINGS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING A LOT. CORPORATE EARNINGS ARE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE. ECONOMY IS DOING WELL. AND WE HAVE STABILIZED AMIDST THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WORLD. ONE OF THE GOOD THINGS ABOUT INDIA IS THAT INDIA IS VERY ADAPTIVE COUNTRY. WE ADAPT. WE ADAPT IN A VERY CHAOTIC WAY, WE ADAPT IN A NOT VERY CLEAR CUT WAY BUT INDIA ADAPTS. I'VE SEEN IT AFTER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS. I THINK LAST 18 MONTHS FOR INDIA HAS BEEN A PERIOD OF ADAPTATION. I THINK INDIA HAS ADOPTED. THE GOVERNMENT HAS NOT GONE CRAZY ON SPENDING AND STIMULUS, SO CURRENTLY I THINK BANKS ARE HEALTHY, ECONOMY IS HEALTHY. THERE IS STILL STRESS POINTS IN INDIA. THERE ARE ALWAYS STRESS POINTS IN SOME PLACE OR ANOTHER BUT I THINK WE ARE DOING WELL. AND IF THE GLOBAL INVESTOR INTEREST STARTS COMING BACK WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE ALLOCATION TO INDIA AS A HEDGE AGAINST THE AI TRADE I THINK WE SHOULD BE IN A GOOD PLACE. >> WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO AS A COUNTRY TO SUSTAIN THAT FOREIGN INVESTOR INTEREST? THERE'S BEEN SO MUCH DEBATE AROUND A CAPITAL GAINS TAX EXEMPTION FOR FOREIGN INVESTORS. WHAT DO YOU THINK? >> I THINK WE NEED TO, FIRST OF ALL, SHOWCASE TO THE FOREIGNERS WE WANT THEM. I THINK THERE IS A LOT OF COMPLEXITY WITH THE TAX REGULATION. THIS LONG-TERM CAPITAL GAINS HAS BEEN A STICKING POINT FOR FOREIGNERS AND THERE ARE A LOT OF NUANCES THAT -- NUANCES ON THAT, A LOT OF TECHNICALITY ON FILING, TAX ON UNREALIZED GAINS. DON'T PAY CAPITAL GAINS IN MOST PARTS OF THE WORLD, I THINK IT IS AN EASY ONE TO ARRIVE AT AN ANSWER. I THINK OVERALL, IF INDIA WANTS FOREIGN INVESTORS TO COME BACK, WE WANT INDIA TO BE A GOOD ALLOCATION FOR FOREIGNERS, WE SHOULD DO SOMETHING. I AM IN THE CAMP WHICH SAYS REMOVING CAPITAL GAINS TAX FOR FOREIGNERS MIGHT BE AN EASIER ANSWER. >> YOU SPOKE OF STRENGTH IN THE ECONOMY. ACROSS YOUR VARIOUS BUSINESSES MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES ARE GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE KIND OF FLOWS YOU SEE IN YOUR ASSET MANAGEMENT BUSINESS. ARE YOU SEEING ANY POINTS OF CONCERN RIGHT NOW? FOR INSTANCE, HIGHER INPUT PRICES HAVE LED MANY TO FEAR THAT THE MIDSIZED INDUSTRY SECTOR WILL STRUGGLE OVER A PERIOD UP TIME WITH WORKING CAPITAL AND OTHER REQUIREMENTS? ARE USING CREDIT CONCERNS IN THAT SPACE AT ALL -- ARE YOU SEEING CREDIT CONCERNS IN THAT SPACE AT ALL? COUPLE OF MONTHS THINGS HAVE STEADIED DOWN. I THINK OVERALL, THERE WERE SOME POCKETS BECAUSE OF THE DROUGHT SITUATION. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF STRESS. I THINK OVERALL, IT IS NOT SYSTEMIC, IT IS NOT PERVASIVE, IT IS NOT ACROSS ALL PARTS OF THOSE CATEGORIES. ON THE OTHER SIDE, EXPORTS ARE DOING WELL, AND DEFENSE EXPORTS ARE BOOMING, MANUFACTURING EXPORTS ARE PICKING UP BECAUSE I THINK INCREASING RUPIAH. I THINK ON THE ECONOMIC SIDE, THERE ARE MORE GREENS THAN RED OVERALL. BUT THERE ARE SOME POCKETS, AS YOU SAID, IN PUT PRICES AND MARGIN COMPRESSION BUT THE GROWTH HAS MORE THAN MADE UP FOR THE MARGIN COMPRESSION FOR MOST OF THE PLAYERS. HASLINDA: YOU TALKED ABOUT INPUT COSTS. FOR A LOT OF COMPANIES, IT IS ALSO ABOUT OIL PRICES. AND AS WE SPEAK, WE SEE BRENT TRADING HIGHER AT ABOUT $100 A BARREL, A PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL. HOW MIGHT THIS PLAY OUT FOR THE STOCK MARKET? THAT'S BEEN A KEY REASON FOR THE UNDERPERFORMANCE ON THE INDIAN MARKET. >> ABSOLUTELY. AND I THINK AS YOU SAID, OIL PRICE AFFECTS INDIA IN MANY, MANY WAYS. I THINK THE FIRST WAY IS THROUGH IN PUT PRICES, BUT INDIA AS YOU KNOW, WHEN OIL PRICES GO UP, THE IT AND ON THE PART OF IT COMES INTO THE REAL ECONOMY, AND TO THE CONSUMERS AND MANUFACTURERS. I THINK THERE ARE SPEED BREAKERS ALONG THE WAY. WHEN OIL PRICES COME DOWN, NOT ALL THE BENEFIT ACCRUES TO THE MANUFACTURERS AND CONSUMERS BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT HAS BUILT IN THOSE SPEED BREAKERS OTHER THAN THAT I THINK OIL PRICE OF EFFECTS RUPIAH AND ALL BECAUSE OF OUR CURRENT ACCOUNT. I THINK ON THAT, I THINK THERE IS A COUNTERBALANCING. GOLD INPUTS HAVE COME DOWN. LAST YEAR, WE WERE IMPORTING ALMOST 18, $20 BILLION OF GOLD EVERY QUARTER. GOLD IMPORTS HAVE COME DOWN TO PARTLY COMPENSATE FOR THE HIGHER PRICE FOR THE OIL IMPORTS. I THINK NOW, AROUND $100, THE COMPANY HAS ADAPTED. IF 100 FALLS DOWN, CERTAINLY THERE WILL NOT BE A BIG GAME. THERE ARE A LOT OF ADJUSTING MECHANISMS OTHER. UNLESS OIL PRICE GOES UP VERY SHARPLY, I THINK THE ECONOMY IS NOW ON AN EVEN KEEL ON THAT ISSUE. HASLINDA: WHEN IT COMES TO INDIAN EQUITIES, YOU TALK ABOUT HOW YOUR PRETTY UPBEAT ABOUT PROSPECTS THAT THEY REMAIN RESILIENT FROM NOW ON. THE THING ABOUT THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET IS THAT, YOU KNOW, IT HAS BEEN WEIGHED DOWN BY THE FACT THAT IT IS A NON--AI PLAY. IF THERE IS A RESURGENCE, OF INCREASING APPETITE FOR AI AGAIN, MIGHT INDIA LOSE ITS LUSTER? >> AND MAKE. I THINK THE MORE -- IT MAY. I THINK THE MORE PEOPLE WANT TO ALLOCATE MONEY TO AI, THAT MONEY WILL NOT FIND ITS WAY TO INDIA BECAUSE THERE ARE NO AI INDIA PLAYS AVAILABLE. WE DON'T MANUFACTURE CHIPS OR THE LLM'S. INDIA IS NOT A CORE AI PLATE. THERE IS A LOT OF WORKING GOING ON IN INDIA AT THE START OF STAGE, ENTERPRISE STAGE. THERE IS A LOT OF USE OF AI THAT IS IN PLAY OUT THERE BEFORE A GLOBAL INVESTOR, IF AN INVESTOR WANTS TO ALLOCATE MONEY TO AN AI PLAY, INDIA WILL NOT BE THE AUTOMATIC ALLOCATION FOR THAT SO I THINK WE SHOULD ACCEPT THAT. WE DO HOPE THAT AT LEAST IN THE WHICH HAS BEEN REBALANCING ITSELF. ON THAT COUNT, I THINK FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS WE SAW THE EXTREME AI ALLOCATION PLAY PLAY OUT. INDIA RELATIVELY DID NOT DO WELL BUT ABSOLUTELY I THINK INDIAN MARKET HELD UP. I'VE BEEN IN THE MARKET FOR 30 YEARS AND I HAVE SEEN MARKETS FOLLOWED BY 18, 20, 30% IN THE CORRECTION FACES. I THINK INDIAN MARKET FELL DOWN 8%, 10% IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. IN THAT SENSE, WE ARE OK, EVEN WHEN THE WORST OF AI WAS AT PLAY. I AM OPTIMISTIC THAT IF THERE IS A RESURGENCE OF AI TRADE, INDIA MIGHT NOT BOOM, BUT INDIA WILL HOLD ON. HASLINDA: WHAT IS THE BIGGEST RISK FOR THE INDIAN MARKET THEN? >> I THINK AS YOU VERY CORRECTLY SAID, OIL REMAINS A BIG RISK. IF FOR ANY REASON OIL GOES TO $140, $150, IT DOES REMAIN A CONCERN. IF THERE IS A BIG GLOBAL RISK OFF PLAY THAT PEOPLE JUST WANT TO GET OUT OF ANY RISKY ASSETS, INCLUDING EMERGING MARKETS AND INDIA, THEN ALSO THERE WILL BE ORUR EQUITY MARKETS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THAT. INDIA HAS A LOT OF LOCAL SAVINGS COMING INTO EQUITY MARKET AND THAT HAS CREATED A FLOW INTO THE MARKET OVER THE YEARS. I DON'T THINK THERE IS ANY BIG RISK BUT INDIA HAS ALWAYS BEEN A LOT OF SMALL RISK. INDIA IS NEVER AN OUTLIER, ON THE GOOD SIDE OR THE BEDSIDE. IN THE LONG-TERM, AND IT IS A BORN, STABLE MARKET. IN THE SHORT -- BORING, STABLE MARKET. . IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS ALSO A LOT OF DRAMA THAT GOES ON IN INDIA ALSO. >> YOU SPOKE ABOUT DOMESTIC CLOSE. I WAS LOOKING AT A NOMURA REPORT WHICH SUGGESTS ESTIMATES THERE COULD BE A SHARP DECLINE IN LAST MONTH'S NET MUTUAL FUND INFLOWS. YOU RUN AN EMC BUSINESS SO I AM ASKING YOU THIS. HAVE YOU SEEN DOMESTIC INVESTORS SORT OF A BIT TURNED OFF WITH WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE INDIAN MARKETS? WE ARE BACKWARD LOOKING DID, WHICH IS OCTOBER -- A BACKWARD LOOKING DATA, WHICH IS OCTOBER. >> I THINK OCTOBER WAS SLIGHTLY SUBDUED BUT IT WAS A SMALL DECLINE. I DON'T THINK INDIA HAS GONE DOWN BELOW THAT 35 A MONTH. BETWEEN AROUND 40,000 PLUS OR -5000 A MONTH IS THE FLOWS COMING INTO MUTUAL FUND, NEW MONEY INTO EQUITIES FOR MUTUAL FUND IS COMING. AS YOU KNOW, THE CURRENT TOTAL ASSETS OF EQUITIES IS ABOUT $500 BILLION. AND I THINK WE ARE GETTING AROUND BETWEEN 40 BILLION TO $50 BILLION NEW MONEY IN EQUITIES COMING INTO MUTUAL FUNDS. WE DO EXPECT THAT ABOUT 40-50,000,000,000 WILL COME INTO EQUITIES VIA MUTUAL FUND AND ANOTHER 20, 25 WILL COME VIA INSURANCE COMPANIES, PENSION FUNDS AT ALL. 60 ON THE LOWER SIDE, 80 ON THE UPPER SIDE OF NEW EQUITY FLOWS COMING INTO THE MARKET EVERY YEAR. IN FACT, THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS NOT SOME THE IPO'S. EVEN THIS YEAR, WHICH SAW NSC AND RELIANCE, BIG IPO'S, THE TOTAL MONEY RAISED WILL BE NOT MORE THAN $25 BILLION NEW IPO MONEY. BECAUSE EQUITY FLOWS ARE WITHIN 60 BILLION TO 80 BILLION, WE SHOULD HAVE ABOUT 40 TO $45 BILLION OF NEW PAPER COMING IN. I THINK INDIA STILL NEEDS A LOT MORE COMPANIES COME TO THE MARKET. THE PRIMARY MARKET CAN ABSORB A LOT MORE CAPITAL, BECAUSE THE FLOWS INTO EQUITY REMAIN STEADY. ON THE UPPER END, WILL BE $80 BILLION. ON THE LOWER END, SHOULD BE $60 BILLION. BUT EVEN ON THE LOWER END, THERE IS A FLOW TO THE MARKET. HASLINDA: SPEAKING OF IPO'S, OF COURSE, WHEN IS THE IPO HAPPENING DO YOU THINK? >> AS YOU KNOW, AMC IS GROWING PRETTY WELL AS PART OF THE INTER-ASSET MARKET OUT THERE. I THINK WE ARE CURRENTLY A LITTLE BIT SMALLER FOR A BIG IPO'D SO OUR PLAN IS IN THE NEXT 18 MONTHS. WE ARE STARTING TO GET READY. ALL THE BUSINESSES WE HAVE, THE MANDATE TO THEM IS BE READY TO IPO IN THE NEXT, YOU KNOW, TWO TO FOUR YEARS. AND I THINK THAT IN INDIA, BEING AN IPO LISTED COMPANY HAS A LOT OF ADVANTAGES. THE OVERSIGHT, THE GOVERNANCE STRENGTHENING, ALL OF THAT MAKES THE BUSINESSES STRONGER, THE PLATFORM BECOMES MORE INSTITUTIONALIZED, SO THOSE ADVANTAGES WE HAVE, SO WE WANT ALL OUR UNDERLYING BUSINESSES, INSURANCE COMPANIES, AS SET MANAGEMENT TO EVENTUALLY IPO AND GET LISTED IN THE MARKET. I WOULD HOPE AMC SHOULD BE GETTING READY FOR IPO IN THE NEXT 18-24 MONTHS. HASLINDA: BEFORE WE LET YOU GO, WE KNOW THAT THERE HAVE BEEN QUITE A FEW EXITS AT THE TOP LEVEL. CAN YOU SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE REASONS BEHIND THAT? >> I THINK IT'LL WISE, YOU KNOW -- AT ALWAYS, YOU KNOW, NOW WE ARE 30 YEARS OLD. WE GROOM A BOUT OF LEADERS. THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF GOOD LEADERS WHO ARE EX-EDLEWEISS WHO HAVE GONE OUT AND GO VERY BIG BUSINESSES IN CAPITAL MARKETS, AS A AND OTHER INDUSTRIES. WE FOCUS A LOT ON PEOPLE DEVELOPMENT, SUCCESSION TIME. BECAUSE WE DO THINK AS AN INSTITUTION, I THINK BUSINESSES WILL GET BUILT WHEN THE ORGANIZATION CAN BUILD ITS OWN LEADERS. THERE IS A LUNG LEADERSHIP PIPELINE. AS YOU KNOW, RECENTLY WE IPO'D OUR ALTERNATIVES BUSINESS, EAAA IT WAS OF BUSINESS WE BUILT OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS. IT HAS ALSO HAD ITS OWN LEADERSHIP CHANGES. EVEN THE EDELWEISS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, IT IS ABOUT A 20-YEAR-OLD BUSINESS. THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR LEADERSHIP CHANGES THAT HAVE HAPPENED. . WE DO THINK REGULAR LEADERSHIP CHANGES AND SCALING UP IS ACTUALLY BUILT FOR A HEALTHY ORGANIZATION, BECAUSE PEOPLE BUILD BUSINESSES AND GO OUT AND BUILD THEIR OWN STUFF, WHERE THEY MOVE ON. AN ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD ITS OWN LEADERS OVER THE YEARS OVER AND OVER AGAIN. HASLINDA: THANK YOU. EDELWEISS FINANCIAL SERVICES MD, RASHESH SHAH IN WILL BUY. THANK YOU. ♪ HASLINDA: LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT MARKETS. THE TECH ROUTE STANDING HERE IN ASIA, THE MSCI ASIA PACIFIC INDEX DOWN 4%. TRACKING HEAVY BENCHMARKS IN ASIA. IN KOREA, THE COSBY WAS HALTED AFTER IT SANK MORE THAN 8% AS INVESTORS RUSHED TO THE EXIT. THE KOSPI TRADING DOWN BY 5%. THE TOPICS ALSO LOWER BY SIX AND THE NIKKEI TO 25 AMONG THE LAGGARDS. IT IS A MASSIVE GLOBAL SELLOFF AND IS WORSENING HERE IN ASIA. LET'S GET BACK TO MINMIN LOW WHO IS OUR NEXT GUEST AT THE CHINA INTERNATIONAL IMPORT EXPO IN SHANGHAI. MINMIN: JOINING ME HERE IS THE COO OF PERENNIAL HOLDINGS. THIS IS A COMPANY, A REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT COMPANY, THAT HAS BEEN IN CHINA FOR 15 YEARS AND DEVELOPED A MIX OF COMMERCIAL RETAIL, AND NOW INCREASINGLY HEALTH CARE IN CHINA. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. EVERYONE KNOWS THE PROPERTY SECTOR IN CHINA HAS NOT BEEN OF YOUR COMMERCIAL AND RETAIL BUSINESS. INCOME SO FAR? >> FOR PERENNIAL, IN RECENT YEARS, WE HAVE GONE FROM WHAT WE CALL TYPICAL COMMERCIAL AND RETAIL DEVELOPMENT. I THINK MOSTLY WE ARE FOCUSING ON -- H-SHARES OUR HIGH-SPEED RAIL, TRANSIT AND RENTAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE SEVEN PROJECTS. WE ARE PIVOTING AWAY FROM COMMERCIAL PLAY. OF COURSE WE HAVE COMMERCIAL PLAY WITH OCCUPANCY ABOVE 95%. THE FOCUS HAS BEEN SKEWED TOWARD THE HEALTH CARE PORTION. MINMIN: WHEN IT COMES TO PROPERTY IN CHINA, PERHAPS YOU MIGHT NEED ANOTHER FIVE YEARS FOR RECOVERY. DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT TIMELINE? >> I THINK THEY ARE RIGHT IN A SENSE FOR THE PURE COMMERCIAL PLAY. CARE. MINMIN: TALK ABOUT THE HEALTH CARE BUSINESS. YOU'RE THE FIRST FOREIGN COMPANY TO FULLY OWN A TERTIARY HEALTH CARE BUSINESS IN CHINA. WHAT ARE YOU SEEING IN TERMS OF DEMAND? I'M ASSUMING YOU ARE PRICING YOURSELF AT A HIGH PREMIUM. DO YOU SEE YOURSELF IN MIND FOR THAT SERVICE? >> WHEN WE FIRST LAUNCHED OUR FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED HOSPITAL, WE ALIGNED WITH THE COUNTRY'S POLICIES. THE HEALTHY CHINA 2030 POLICY. WITH THE INCREASING POPULATION OF PEOPLE ABOVE 65 YEARS OLD, AS OF 2024 ABOUT 16% OF THE POPULATION IS 65 AND ABOVE. WITH THAT ALIGNMENT, WITH MORE CARE SECTOR -- CENTRIC ELDERCARE, IN TERMS OF A PRICE POINT, I THINK WE ARE NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS OTHER PREMIUM HOSPITALS. WE DEVIATE FROM THE GENERAL MASS-MARKET GOVERNMENT HOSPITAL. I THINK THAT PUTS US IN A VERY GOOD POSITION THAT WE ARE TARGETING IN THE MID TO HIGH END WHERE WE HAVE DIFFICULTIES. GOOD QUALITY HOSPITALS AND GOOD-QUALITY DOCTORS. THE GOVERNMENT HOSPITALS WERE ABLE TO HAVE A LOT OF GOOD DOCTORS JOINING US. WE CAN SEE ON THE TRACK RECORD WE HAVE, WE HAVE ATTRACTED QUITE A LOT OF TENSION IN TERMS OF GOOD PARTNERS AS WELL AS PATIENTS FROM OVERSEAS, NOT ONLY IN CHINA PER SE. MINMIN: WHAT IS THE OCCUPANCY RATE LOOKING LIKE AND IS IT CONTINUALLY RISING? >> IN SHANGHAI, WE ARE DOING VERY WELL. IN SHANGHAI WE ARE AVERAGING MORE THAN 90% OCCUPIED. IN OTHER CITIES WE JUST STARTED IN 2024 AND WE ARE RAMPING UP NICELY. WE ARE ONE OF THE TOP PERFORMERS IN TERMS OF RAMPING UP THE BUSINESS. THERE'S A BIG MARKET IN CHINA FOR HEALTH CARE, WITH ELDERCARE COMBINED TOGETHER SERVICES. MINMIN: IN THE FUTURE ARE YOU LOOKING AT EXTENDING FURTHER INVESTMENTS? >> I THINK WE WILL EXPAND FURTHER. WE ARE LOOKING MORE DOWNFIELD PROJECTS TO FIT HEALTH CARE OR ELDERCARE. OWN LEAD? >> STATE-OWNED HELP -- ENTERPRISE OR THIRD-PARTY. TO DEVELOP THIS ASSET TAKES ABOUT FIVE YEARS. WHEN WE GET A NEW BUILDING, FROM THE XO EASE OR OTHER COMPANIES WHERE WE ARE RETROFITTED, AND PUT INTO USE. WE DID 18 TO 24 MONTHS SO THAT IS ONE STRATEGY. WE ARE FOCUSING ON FIRST AND SECOND TIER PROVINCIAL CAPITALS SO THESE ARE THE ONES WITH THE PATIENT'S WE CAN ATTRACT. MINMIN: ARE YOU UNDER PRESSURE BUSINESS? >> AS AN ACTING COMPANY, WE ARE ALWAYS LOOKING AT HOW TO MONETIZE ASSETS. I THINK IN JUNE, WE HAD AN APPROVAL TO DO A PROPER SERIES IN CHINA. WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF TRYING TO LIST IN CHINA. MINMIN: WHEN YOU ARE TRYING TO BROADEN OUT TO A GLOBAL BUSINESS, PARTICULARLY WITH HEADQUARTERS IN SINGAPORE, YOU HAVE THIS PARTNERSHIP WITH ALIBABA. I THINK THERE HAS BEEN SOME DIFFICULTY IN GETTING THE RESIDENTIAL UNITS TAKEN UP. WHAT IS THE CHALLENGE YOU ARE FACING AND ARE YOU SEEING ANY PROGRESS ON THAT FRONT? >> FOR US IT'S NOT THE OURSELVES THERE AS PREMIUM. WE ARE LOOKING AT A DIFFERENT SET OF BUYERS, ON TOP OF WHAT WE USUALLY HAVE IN SINGAPORE. THE APARTMENTS ARE GOING SLOWER BECAUSE IT'S ONLY BY IF AND WE LOOK CLOSELY AT HOW WE CAN BRING THE OWNERS OUTSIDE OF SINGAPORE TO OWN THE ASSETS HERE. SECONDLY AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, I THINK WE VIEW THAT IN THE MARKET LIKE OURS, EVERYBODY IS SELLING APARTMENTS. WE AREN'T SELLING THIS AS A PREMIUM LIVER. WE ARE SELLING MORE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT TWO YEARS. MINMIN: JUST VERY QUICKLY. YOU ALSO HAVE THIS ELDER CARE PROJECT AND THERE'S A LOT OF SKEPTICISM. ARE YOU SEEING ANY PROGRESS? >> FOR PERENNIAL, WHAT WE HAVE DONE IS REVIEW THE COST OF LIVING, THE COST OF GETTING A HELPER, PROFESSIONAL HELP. ACTUALLY IT IS NOT THAT MUCH EXPENSIVE. WE PROVIDE YOU A PLACE TO LIVE, WHERE YOU CAN EAT, LIVE, AND ALSO YOU GET HEALTH CARE SERVICES, QUALIFIED CAREGIVERS, AND OF COURSE COMPLEMENTED WITH HEALTH CARE MONETARY SYSTEM AND EVERYTHING. SO AT THIS MOMENT I THINK IT IS SLOWLY RAMPING UP. MINMIN: WE HAVE TO LEAVE IT PERENNIAL HOLDINGS. HASLINDA: OF COURSE THAT IS IT FOR INSIGHT. KEEP IT HERE WITH US. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪","textShort":"As Stocks Reel From AI Rout, Investors Seek Safety Beyond Tech\n\nHASLINDA: A HISTORIC TECH ROUT RIPPING THROUGH MOST OF ASIA AS THIRD WORST WORSE DAY FOR U.S. STOCKS SINCE 2020. JAPAN HAS ENTERED A BEAR MARKET. TAIWAN GETTING HAMMERED AS WELL. BUT CHINA AND HONG KONG SEEM TO…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HSUAr0LNZI"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T08:05:59.531Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"6b853f83-30d0-4088-93e7-6c6d4dafaf64","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["THE SECOND RAISE IS PROBABLY MORE LIKELY THAN NOT"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Governor Andrew Bailey says another rate increase is more likely than not if energy prices remain high.","topic":"bank of england rates"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["BRENT CRUDE HAS A SHARP SELLOFF","RISK PREMIUM FROM THE POTENTIAL ESCALATION OF THE WAR","RELATIVE UHLY WELL-SUPPLIED"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The report says oil has fallen sharply as concerns about a U.S.-Iran escalation cooled and supply remained ample.","topic":"oil prices"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["LOTS OF CHALLENGES","THE FUNDAMENTAL STORY OF AI IS INTACT","I DO NOT THINK THE MIDTERMS DERAILED THE AI CYCLE"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The Jefferies economist sees near-term challenges but remains optimistic that AI's fundamental story is intact and the midterms have not derailed its cycle.","topic":"ai trade outlook"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["EMERGING MARKETS SHOULD BENEFIT","EUROPE SHOULD BENEFIT"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The Jefferies economist expects emerging markets and Europe to benefit as portfolios rotate away from the AI trade.","topic":"emerging markets and europe"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:XYZ100","confidence":0.68,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":2,"entryPx":26880.5,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"The Jefferies economist expects Nasdaq to underperform as investors rotate away from AI","id":"sig_adf5cd8531604cd2bf02d155","matched":["PIVOT SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE AI TRADE","OUTPERFORM NASDAQ"],"maxLeverage":30,"rationale":"The Jefferies economist expects investors to shift away from the AI trade and sees other regions outperforming Nasdaq, implying weaker relative performance for Nasdaq.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"XYZ100","tags":["nasdaq","rotation","ai"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:TLT","confidence":0.72,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":5,"entryPx":82.2135,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"The Jefferies economist favors fixed income as central banks may deliver fewer hikes than markets expect","id":"sig_634120583bee44fbb54a5781","matched":["LONG FIXED INCOME","WE DO NOT THINK CENTRAL BANKS WOULD DELIVER ON THE FORWARDS"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"The Jefferies economist expects bonds to benefit because he thinks central banks will deliver fewer rate hikes than markets have priced in.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":true,"sym":"TLT","tags":["bonds","interest rates"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"6810648a-99c6-4c75-b744-ffe724db41da","marks":[{"at":89,"t":13},{"at":760,"t":57},{"at":1406,"t":99},{"at":2002,"t":140},{"at":2669,"t":192},{"at":3149,"t":232},{"at":3979,"t":284},{"at":4647,"t":327},{"at":5118,"t":360},{"at":5638,"t":395},{"at":6341,"t":444},{"at":7118,"t":507},{"at":7589,"t":545},{"at":8122,"t":581},{"at":8722,"t":624},{"at":9192,"t":657},{"at":9691,"t":691},{"at":10157,"t":745},{"at":10487,"t":778},{"at":11468,"t":842},{"at":12173,"t":889},{"at":12865,"t":937},{"at":13364,"t":975},{"at":14018,"t":1021},{"at":14341,"t":1051},{"at":14657,"t":1083},{"at":15214,"t":1122},{"at":15814,"t":1159},{"at":16299,"t":1190},{"at":16523,"t":1228},{"at":17038,"t":1265},{"at":17863,"t":1318},{"at":18411,"t":1352},{"at":18626,"t":1388},{"at":19294,"t":1435},{"at":19812,"t":1473},{"at":20461,"t":1513},{"at":20993,"t":1560},{"at":21521,"t":1620},{"at":22176,"t":1672},{"at":22634,"t":1711},{"at":23447,"t":1770},{"at":23830,"t":1801},{"at":24611,"t":1861},{"at":25228,"t":1913},{"at":25706,"t":1944},{"at":26124,"t":1977},{"at":26648,"t":2015},{"at":27109,"t":2048},{"at":27534,"t":2081},{"at":28214,"t":2128},{"at":28920,"t":2175},{"at":29452,"t":2220},{"at":29584,"t":2256},{"at":30240,"t":2306},{"at":30796,"t":2370},{"at":31433,"t":2434},{"at":31802,"t":2467},{"at":32207,"t":2502},{"at":32966,"t":2559},{"at":33705,"t":2621},{"at":34526,"t":2683},{"at":35050,"t":2720}],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T07:56:15.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://yt3.googleusercontent.com/4-w44catDebzaDSUWgereql0G5_z5o7VpJXuIYL_eZ3H1vXy0lTmrole9V500jTUXCnQPZ5CuKQ=s900-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj","handle":"@markets","id":"yt-UCIALMKvObZNtJ6AmdCLP7Lg","name":"Bloomberg Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Eisenkot Wins 67 Backers as Israel Awaits Government Decision, Oil Slides on Iran Talks\n\nOUR TOP STORIES THIS MORNING, AI ROUT D BEEN SPARED THE GLOBAL TECH SELLOFF INTENSIFIES AS CONCERNS OUR REREGULATION AND STRETCH VALUATIONS HIT CHIP STOCKS. ASIAN MARKETS LEAD LOSSES AS INVESTORS WORRY ABOUT A DEEPER RESET FOR THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TRADE. OIL GAINS BUT IS HEADING FOR A STEEP WEEKLY LOSS AS HOPES TO BUILD FOR AN END TO THE IRAN WAR. DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS ARE THOUGHT TO BE GAINING TRACTION, THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN REMAIN. AT TREASURIES JUMP AS INVESTORS SEEK SAFETY FROM THE DEEPENING SELLOFF WITH THE MARKETS ALSO TRIMMING BETS ON FUTURE FED HIKES. IT'S JUST GONE PAST 9:00 ACROSS THE EMIRATES. I AM JENNIFER ZABASAJJA. THE MARKET ROUT PROTECT CONTINUES. THE REVERBERATIONS FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE MIDTERMS IN THE U.S. CONTINUES, SPECIFICALLY IN ASIA, WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE GOING TO GO NOW TO CHECK AND HOW THE IN ASIA HAVE BEEN FARING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE FRIDAY SESSION. WINNIE HSU IS IN HONG KONG TO GIVE US A BIT OF DETAIL. QUITE A BIT OF RED ON THE SCREEN BEHIND YOU. WALK US THROUGH WHAT YOU ARE WATCHING. >> GOOD MORNING. IT HAS BEEN SUCH A BRUTAL SELLOFF IN ASIA MARKETS TODAY. WE HAVE THE MSCI ASIA DOWN ALMOST 4%, EARLIER WAS DOWN ALMOST 5%, BUT STILL WE ARE LOSING FOR A FIFTH SESSION, THE LONGEST SUCH STREAK WE HAVE SEEN SINCE 2023. . WHEN IT COMES TO THE BENCHMARKS, YOU CAN SEE THAT LEADING LOSSES. YOU HAVE TECH HAVE BE GAUGES AND TAIWAN. THIS IS COMING AFTER NASDAQ HAVING ITS WORST DAY SINCE THE COVID TIMES, PLUS THE CONCERNS AROUND THE SLOWDOWN IN THE DATA CENTER BUILDOUT BECAUSE OF THE DEMOCRATIC SWEEPING WIN IN THE U.S. MIDTERMS. BUT WE ARE ALSO SEEING A DELEVERAGING HAPPENING AS WELL AS POSITIONING UNWINDING, SO THAT IS REALLY ADDING TO THE VOLATILITY. WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE KEY BENCHMARKS ALSO PRESSING THROUGH SOME OF THE KEY MILESTONES WITH JAPAN'S NIKKEI 225 AND TAIEX HEADING INTO BEAR MARKET TERRITORY. WE DID SEE A BIT OF A REBOUND IN ASIA MARKETS ALONG WITH U.S. FUTURES. THIS IS COMING AFTER SOME REPORT HINTING THAT AUTHORITIES ARE STEPPING IN WITH SOME OF THESE MEASURES TO STABILIZE THE MARKET. GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE SESSION IN ASIA. BACK TO YOU. >> THANKS SO MUCH. THE GLOBAL TECH SELLOFF IS DEEPENING ACROSS ASIA, AS CONCERNS OVER TIGHTER U.S. REGULATION ADDED TO THE PRESSURE ON THE AI TRADE. JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, AND TAIWAN ARE SEEING SHARP LOSSES, WITH CHIP MAKERS ALONG THE HARDEST HIT -- AMONG THE HARDEST HIT AS INVESTORS REASSESSING AI SPENDING AND DATA CENTER. WE JUST HEARD FROM WINNIE HSU ABOUT WHAT WE ARE SEEING WITH SOME OF THE MARKET ACTIVITY. WHAT ARE YOU SEEING? >> IT IS INTERESTING THAT SO MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN SHUTTING THE BOOK DOWN. THESE ARE NOT SPECULATIVE SHORT TRADES, THESE ARE NOT NEW BETS, THESE ARE BASICALLY AN UNWIND OF AN ENTIRE YEAR'S WORTH OF THESIS AROUND THE AI TRADE. WE DID SEE THOSE SOCIAL MEDIA COMMENTS WITH THE NEW DEMOCRATIC SENATORS, WERE U.S. AFTER TAKING STEEP LOSSES IN OCTOBER, A RANGE OF HEAD FUNDS EITHER SHUTTING DOWN OR PARING BOOKS OR CHANGING STRATEGY AFTER A HORRIBLE OCTOBER. THEY COMING INTO NOVEMBER, TWO WEEKS INTO NOVEMBER AND THERE IS TRADE. WE ARE SEEING HUGE VOLUMES PICK UP YOUR, CONSENSUS POSITIONS ACROSS ASIA BEING THROWN OUT OF THE WINDOW, AND AFTER A U.S. SESSION THAT SOUGHT DOUBLE-DIGIT LOSSES ACROSS THE ENTIRE SEMICONDUCTOR SPACE. THE PROFESSIONAL HEDGE FUND COMMUNITY WAS VERY ACTIVE RIGHT ON OPEN. WE HAVE SEEN ASIAN RETAIL BUYING A LITTLE BIT MORE. THE DIFFERENCE IN FIREPOWER OBVIOUSLY POINTS TO THE FACT THAT MARKETS ARE TRENDING LOWER IN ASIA. THERE IS ONLY SO MUCH RETAIL CAN BUY OF HEDGE FUNDS ARE GETTING OUT OF THE WAY ON THIS TRADE ACROSS THE BOARD. >> THE QUESTION THEN IS, WHERE DOES THE AI TRADE GO FROM? ESPECIALLY AS WE GO INTO THE END OF THE YEAR? >> MARKETS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSELY WATCHING THE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR AND THE NEW DEMOCRAT SENATORS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EARLY INDICATIONS THAT A COMPROMISE CAN BE FOUND IN PLACES LIKE TEXAS. THE COMPLETION OF EXISTING DATA CENTERS PROBABLY FINISHES UP AND MARKETS WILL BE KEEN TO SEE HOW THAT PROGRESS IS OVER TIME -- HOW THAT PROGRESSES OVER TIME. WHAT IS THE NEW REGULATION? IS THERE A COMPLETE HALT TO CONSTRUCTION UNTIL NEW REGULATION IS PUT IN PLACE? WILL OF THE HYPERSCALERS DO IN TERMS OF THE REST OF THE WORLD -- WHAT WILL THE HYPERSCALERS DO IN TERMS OF THE REST OF THE? WE HAD SOME GUESTS ON THAT SUGGESTED DATA CENTERS WILL BE BUILT ELSEWHERE, SO THAT MODIFICATION OF THE TRADE TOWARDS A WIDER GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF DATA CENTERS TO BE ANOTHER THEME. THERE IS ALSO ROTATION WITH AN EQUITIES. FROM THE HIGHS. THE MARKET IS ROTATING INTO THE THE DEMOCRATS COMING IN BECAUSE COST OF LIVING AND INCOME INEQUALITY WAS A REALLY BIG PART OF THEIR PLATFORMS, SO THERE WILL BE SOME NEW DYNAMICS. ONE MONTH LEFT TO PLAY IN THE YEAR, MOST PEOPLE ARE JUST SHUTTING BOOKS AND THEY WILL REASSESS NEXT YEAR. >> I THINK THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT MORE TO DO THROUGHOUT THE YEAR SO WE WILL SEE HOW THAT PROGRESSES OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. ANTHONY STEPHENS IN HONG KONG, THANKS SO MUCH FOR WALKING US THROUGH THAT. LET'S CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION WITH THE CHIEF ECONOMIST JEFFRIES. LET'S PICK UP WHERE ANTHONY LEFT OFF. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY SINCE THE MIDTERMS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE. WHERE DO YOU ASSESS WHERE THE AI TRADE GOES FROM HERE? >> I THINK SHORT-TERM, I FULLY AGREE THERE ARE LOTS OF CHALLENGES, BUT CHALLENGES ARE VERY TECHNICAL IN NATURE. AND WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WAS VERY INTERESTING BECAUSE IT WAS RETAIL THAT WAS SELLING. IT WAS THE SINGLE LARGEST SELLING OF RETAIL SINCE COVID. THEN WE HAD SOME ETF AND CTF SELLING AND THERE WAS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME HEDGE FUNDS WERE CLOSING BOOKS, LIKE ANTHONY SAID, AND ALSO BECAUSE WE ARE APPROACHING CLOSE TO YEAR END. THE SELLING IS VERY TECHNICAL IN NATURE. DOES THE AI TRADE UNWIND BEYOND THE TECHNICAL SELLING? AND OF THAT, I AM OPTIMISTIC. I AM OPTIMISTIC IN THE SENSE THAT, I THINK YES, WE CAN GET SOME SPEED BUMPS BECAUSE OF DEMOCRATS, BUT THE FUNDAMENTAL STORY OF AI IS INTACT. DATA CENTERS ALSO CREATE JOBS SO THAT IS NOT OBVIOUS THAT THE DEMOCRAT SENATORS WILL WANT THESE DATA CENTERS TO GO AWAY. WE HAVE ALREADY HEARD FROM TEXAS THAT THE EXISTING PROJECTS WILL CONTINUE. NEW PROJECTS, THERE IS A QUESTION OF PERMITS, SO DELAYS, SPEED BUMPS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE. BUT I DO NOT THINK THE MIDTERMS DERAILED THE AI CYCLE. FOR US, -- >> I WAS JUST GOING TO ASK, DO YOU SEE THIS ROUT THAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE MARKETS BROADENING OUT OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT AI TRADE AT THIS POINT? HOW FAR DOES THIS CURRENT VOLATILITY SPREAD? >> THERE IS ALWAYS A THREAT, SIMPLY BECAUSE TECH IS S UCH A BIG PORTION OF S&P, BUT EVEN YESTERDAY WE SAW SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF S&P ACTUALLY DOING WELL. HEALTH CARE, CONSUMERS, THEY WERE ACTUALLY DOING WELL. MY BASE CASE IS IT IS TECHNICAL IN NATURE, IT IS LIMITED TO THE AI TRADE, AND WE DON'T SEE A BROAD-BASED START OF A DOWNTURN. >> LET'S PIVOT TO WHAT ELSE WE ARE SEEING, SPECIFICALLY YOU ARE IN LONDON, AND WE DID OF COURSE HAVE THE BOE DECISION COMING OUT A BIT MORE HAWKISH THAN A NUMBER OF ECONOMISTS ACTUALLY ANTICIPATED. HOW DO YOU ASSESS WHERE THE BOE GOES FROM HERE? >> I THINK THE QUESTION IS ALSO VERSUS EXPECTATIONS. BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT THE MARKET, MARKET IS PRICING IN THREE AND A BIT MORE HIKES COMING FROM BANK OF ENGLAND. ENGLAND. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE VOTE SPLIT WAS HAWKISH AND THE STATEMENT WAS A BIT HAWKISH, WE DON'T THINK THE BANK OF ENGLAND DELIVERS ON THE FORWARDS. THE ARGUMENT IS VERY SIMPLE. GOOD SCENARIO, WE HAVE SOME RESOLUTION, OIL PRICE COMES LOWER, THERE IS NO NEED TO HIKE. THAT SCENARIO, OIL PRICE STAYS HIGH BUT THEN WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT GROWTH. BANK OF ENGLAND CANNOT HIKE AGGRESSIVELY AND A POOR GROWTH SCENARIO -- IN A POOR GROWTH SCENARIO. >> HOW DOES THAT COMPARE TO POTENTIALLY WHAT WE SEE FROM THE FED AND ECB? DO WE SEE A BIT MORE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS CENTRAL BANKS OR DO WE CONSIDER TO SEE A BIT MORE VARIATION BASED ON WHERE THESE VARIOUS ECONOMIES ARE SITTING AT? >> I THINK MORE CONVERGENCE. BASE CASE IS FOR ALL THREE CENTRAL BANKS, FED, ECB, AND THE BANK OF ENGLAND, JUST ONE MARK. WE THINK FED AND ECB HIKES IN DECEMBER AND BANK OF ENGLAND WILL DO ANOTHER HIKE IN FEBRUARY BUT WE ARE LOOKING AT JUST ONE MORE HIKE FROM EACH OF THE CENTRAL BANKS. >> WHAT DOES THAT MEAN WHEN WE LOOK INTO YEAR END? WE WERE SPEAKING TO ANTHONY ABOUT POTENTIALLY WHAT THIS LOOKS LIKE AS WE GET INTO DECEMBER. WHERE DO YOU SEE POTENTIALLY THE CLEANEST ENTRANCE FOR INVESTORS CONSIDERING THE VARIOUS QUESTION MARKS THAT STILL LOOM IN A NUMBER OF REGIONS AND ASSET CLASSES GLOBALLY? >> SO, AFTER THE MIDTERMS, FOR US, THE BARBELL STRATEGY STILL WORKS. WE WANT TO BE LONG RATES, BECAUSE WE DO NOT THINK CENTRAL BANKS WOULD DELIVER ON THE FORWARDS. FOR US TO BE LONG FIXED INCOME IS A PRETTY CLEAN TRADE BECAUSE LEVELS ARE VERY ATTRACTIVE. WHEN WE THINK ABOUT EQUITY MARKETS, WE WOULD SEE WE NEED TO PIVOT SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE AI TRADE BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT EMERGING MARKETS SHOULD BENEFIT. EUROPE SHOULD BENEFIT BECAUSE OF THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. OUTPERFORM NASDAQ. FOR US, IT IS A ROTATION, IT IS A PORTFOLIO SHIFT. IT IS NOT THAT WE WANT TO SELL EVERYTHING WE HAVE. >> IS THAT REGIONALLY SPECIFIC, OR DO YOU THINK THAT IS REALLY GOING TO BE ACROSS THE BOARD WHAT WE SEE INTO YEAR END? >> I THINK ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE YEAR END, IN THE SENSE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME INVESTORS, BECAUSE EVERYONE HAS BEEN LONG THE AI TRADE, AND I DON'T THINK SOME INVESTORS WILL REASSESS THEIR PORTFOLIO AND MOVE A BIT FROM THE AI TRADE INTO THE BROADER SECTOR. AND WHEN WE ARE THINKING ABOUT U.S. FINANCIALS, HEALTH CARE, CONSUMERS, THOUGH SHOULD BE THE BENEFICIARIES, THE DEFENSIVE STOCKS. I WOULD SAY GLOBALLY, REST OF THE WORLD SHOULD BENEFIT RELATIVE TO U.S.. >> WE WILL LEAVE IT THERE WITH YOU. CHIEF ECONOMIST A JEFFERIES JOINING US THIS MORNING. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR INSIGHTS. COMING UP, OIL REBOUNDING BUT STILL HEADING FOR ITS WORST WEEK IN YEARS. WE WILL BRING YOU THE DETAILS ON THAT, NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. WELCOME BACK TO \"HORIZONS -- JENNIFER: WELCOME BACK TO \"HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA.\" BRENT CRUDE HAS A SHARP SELLOFF FOLLOWING A DEMOCRATIC SWEEP OF U.S. MID TERM LEKS. THE GLOBAL BENCHMARK IS DOWN ABOUT 16%, ITS BIGGEST WEEKLY LOSS SINCE APRIL, 2020. LET'S BRING IN ANTHONY DE PAULA, OUR MIDDLE EAST CORRESPONDENT IN DUBAI. WHY ARE WE SEAING ISLE WITH DECLINES? WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IN >> WE'RE SEEING A LITTLE BOUNCEBACK FROM THAT STEEP DECLINE WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. REALLY, IT'S BEEN KIND OF OVER THE LAST TWO WEEK, 10 DAYS WE HAVE SEEN OIL COMING DOWN QUITE HELY, SOMETHING LIKE 15% THIS WEEK ALREADY. AND THAT'S CRUST BASICALLY BECAUSE THAT RISK PREMIUM FROM THE POTENTIAL ESCALATION OF THE WAR OR RESUMPTION OF THE WAR BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN WAS ADDING TO PRICES GOING INTO THOSE MID TERMS, GOING INTO THE DISCUSSIONS AROUND TRUMP POTENTIALLY WANTING TO GET BACK IN AND DO SOMETHING IN IRAN. THERE WAS A LOT OF CONCERN ABOUT THAT. AS THOSE CONCERNS COOLED WE SAW OIL COMING OFF. PLUS FUNDAMENTALLY WHEN TRADERS AND PRODUCERS ARE LOOKING AT THE MARK WE ARE SEEING A MARK THAT IS RELATIVE UHLY WELL-SUPPLIED, EXPORTS OUTSIDE OF THE PERSIAN GULF GETTING THROUGH. THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INCREASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MOBS AS PRODUCERS, PARTICULARLY SAUDI ARABIA, HAVE REALLY PICKED UP EXPORTS THROUGH THERE. SAUDI ARABIA HAD BEEN EXPORTING VIA THE RED SEA, PRETTY MUCH EXCLUSIVELY THROUGHOUT THE CONFLICT. THEN THROUGH MID SEPTEMBER THEY RAMPED UP SHIPMENTS OUT OF THE GULF. THAT'S BROUGHT OVERALL MIDDLE EAST EXPORTS CLOSE TO PREWAR LEVELS. WE'RE BACK TO HIGH LEVELS THERE. THAT'S ADDING TO THE SUPPLY IN THE MARK. GIVING BUYERS THAT COMFORT THAT THEY'LL BE ABLE TO GET THOSE BARRELS. THAT'S WHAT WE'RE SEEING MINUS THE RISK PREMIUM, THAT'S WHAT WE'RE SEEING BRINGING THE PRICE BACK DOWN. A LITTLE BOUNCE UP TAZ TODAY AS WE SEE BUYERS NEEDING THAT OIL. JENNIFER: YOU HAVE BEEN REPORTING ALSO ON ARAMCO'S CUT IN PRICES TO BUYS FOR THE ASIA. WHAT DOES THAT SIGNAL ABOUT THE ACTIVITY WE'RE SEEING IN THE MARKET? ANTHONY: STILL OSOME OF THAT WEAKNESS IN THE PRICES, THE IMMEDIATE DELIVERY PRICES. WE HAVE SEEN SOME DISTORTION BETWEEN PHYSICAL PRICES AND THE -- AND THE PAPER PRICES BECAUSE SOME OF THOSE PHYSICAL CRUDES HAVE BE IN -- HAVE BEEN IN GREAT COMPETITION WITH ONE ANOTHER. WE HAVE SEEN, FOR EXAMPLE, THE IRAQI BARRELS PRICING MORE CHEAPLY THAN UAE OR SAUDI BARRELS. SWITCHING THE SAUDIS' COMEBACK WITH THIS CUT, AS THEY TRY TO GET BACK INTO THE MARKET PARTICULARLY IN CHINA. CHINA IS A PRODUCER, EXCUSE ME, A CONSUME WHICH ARE CUT ITS IMPORTS DURING THE CONFLICT BY SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT FIVE MILLION BARRELS A DAY. IT WAS A HUGE REDUCTION. THEY WERE BUYING CHEAPER BARRELS FROM IRAQ. THEY WERE BUYING BARRELS FROM RUSSIA. AS THEY DO COME BACK INTO THE MARKET, SOME OF THE CHINESE REFINERS HAVE BEGUN EXPORTING AGAIN. GOTTEN EXPORT QUOTAS. WE HAVE SEEN THE SAUDIS OFFER CRUDE ON SPOT CONTRACTS. PARTICULAR THOSE ANGLED AT CHINESE REFINERS, TRYING TO GET BACK INTO THAT MARKET. AS WE SEE THE PRICES COME DOWN, WE ARE AT A LOW, SOME OF THE LOWEST LEVELS FOR SAUDI CRUDE SINCE 2020, THE DEPTHS OF THE PAN DEMOCRAT EX. THESE ARE QUITE LOW LEVELS FOR THE SAUDI PRICES. PLUS AS I SAID THERE'S A LOT OF SPOT CONTRACTS. SO THOSE WILL BE DIRECTLY NEGOTIATED POTENTIALLY EVEN LOWER PRICES. THERE'S REALLY COMP IN ADDITION MARKET SHARE OUT THERE AS PRODUCERS TRY TO GET BACK INTO THE MARKET, JENNIFER. JENNIFER: ANTHONY, WE ALWAYS APPRECIATE YOUR REPORTING. THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. LET'S STAY IN THE MIDDLE EAST. ISRAEL'S PRESIDENT, ISAAC HERZOG, SAID HE'LL DECIDE SUNDAY WHO HE'LL TAKE WITH TRYING TO FORM A NEW GOVERNING COALITION. AFTER CONSULLING WITH PARTIES VOTED INTO PARLIAMENT, HE'S EXPECTED TO SELECT EITHER PRIME MINTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU OR CHALLENGER ISENKOT. DAN, WHO ARE WE LIKELY TO SEE GETTING THE FIRST SHOT AT FORMING A COALITION NOW? DAN: TO JUDGE BY THE SHEER NUMBER OF RECOMMENDATIONS YOU ALLUDED TO THE FACT THAT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, ISRAEL'S PRESIDENT HAS BEEN CONSULTING WITH PARTIES NOW IN PARLIAMENT A MAJORITY OF THEM RECOMMENDED IZENKOT BE TAPPED ON SUNDAY. THAT WOULD SUGGEST THAT WOULD BE THE CASE. NETANYAHU ALSO HAS A SHOT AT BEING TAP. EISENKOT IS THE FRONT RUNNER IN THIS PART OF THE PROCESS THOUGH NETANYAHU WAS THE FRONTRUNNER IN THE ACTUAL VOTE ON THE 27TH. JENNIFER: WHAT ARE THE PATHS TO A GOVERNING MAJORITY? HOW DOES THIS WORK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEEKS? DAN: IT'S A VERY BIG CONUNDRUM. THE FIRST PERSON TAPPED WILL HAVE SIX WEEKS TO TRY TO PUT TOGETHER A COALITION IN THE 120-SEAT KNESSET. SHOULD HE FAIL IT WOULD FALL TO HIS RIVAL TO TRY TO DO SO IN A SIMILAR TIMELINE. THE REASON IT'S A CONUNDRUM, THE SHEER DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERENT PARTIES ON CONCERNS OF POLICY OR POLITICS OR PERSONALITY, THEY'VE BEEN DECLARING ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL AND INDEED WITHIN THIS PROCESS ITSELF SINCE THE ELECTION, FOR EXAMPLE, ONE PARTY WON'T SIT WITH ANOTHER THAT DOESN'T RECOGNIZE THE NEED FOR MANDATORY NATIONAL SERVICE. ANOTHER PARTY WON'T SIT WITH A PARTY THAT DOESN'T EXPLICITLY CALL HAMAS A TERRORIST GROUP. THERE'S ALSO A NOW PARTY WHO WAS LONG SHUNNED OR SAID THEY'D SHUN THIS PRIME MINISTER, ISRAEL'S LONGEST SERVING LEADER, BECAUSE HE'S UNDER A CORRUPTION TRIAL OR MORE RECENTLY BECAUSE THE OCTOBER 7 ATTACK BY HAMAS ON ISRAEL TOOK PLACE UNDER HIS WATCH. MANY, MANY EXCLUSIONS THERE. MANY STATEMENTS OF EXCLUSION. AND INDEED HERZOG, THE PRESIDENT, SAID HE HIMSELF IS EXPERIENCING AS A HEAD SCRATCHER, HE NEEDS A COUPLE MORE DAYS TO SPEAK TO A FEW MORE PARTY LEADERS TO TRY TO UNDERSTAND HOW THIS CAN BE RESOLVED. IF IT'S NOT RESOLVED, THEN A FEW MONTHS HENCE, ISRAEL WILL REVERT TO ANOTHER ELECTION, POSSIBLY IN THE SPRING, WE SAW THIS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PREVIOUS DECADE. IT HAPPENED REPEAT THINK UNTIL ONE PARTY THEN MANAGED TO TAKE ITSELF OVER THAT MAJORITY LINE. BUT IT'S VERY DISRUPTIVE FOR PLANNING, FOR REGIONAL PLAN, CERTAINLY FOR FISCAL PLANNING. I DON'T THINK ISRAEL WANTS TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF REPEAT ELECTIONS. JENNIFER: COMPLICATED WHEN ORR FACTORING IN POLITICS AND PERSONAL. DAN, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US TODAY. COMING UP, GOVERNOR ANDREW BAILEY SAID A SECOND HIKE IF THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT IF OIL PRICES STAY HIGH. WE'LL HAVE MORE FROM THAT INTERVIEW LATER. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ JENNIFER: WELCOME BACK TO \"HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA.\" BLOOMBERG HAS LEARNED THAT SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO IS WEIGHING WHETHER TO LEAVE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AFTER THE WIPEOUT LEKS. RUBIO AND HIS ADVISERS ARE CONSIDERING OPTIONS THOUGH NO DECISION HAS BEEN MADE. RUBIO DISMISSED THE REPORT, SAYING HIS PLAN HAS ALWAYS BEEN TO WORK FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP THROUGH THE END OF HIS TERM. U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY PETE HEGSETH COWL FACE AN IMPEACHMENT VOTE AS SOON AS NEXT WEEK OVER HIS ROLE IN THE IRAN WAR. REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMAN THOMAS MAS SY SAID HE'LL REINTRODUCE ARTICLES OF IMPEACHMENT ACCUSING HEGSETH OF WAGING THE CONFLICT WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL. THE EFFORT COULD ATTRACT DEMOCRAT EXAND SOME REPUBLICAN SUPPORT WHILE PRESIDENT TRUMP CONTINUES TO PUBLICLY BACK HIS DEFENSE SECRETARY. AND PROTESTS OVER THE COST OF LIVING IN FRANCE DREW MORE THAN 500,000 PEOPLE, THE BIGGEST TURNOUT SINCE THE UNREST BEGAN IN DECEMBER. THE DEMONSTRATIONS COME AS PRESIDENT EMANUEL MACRON'S GOVERNMENT STRUGGLES TO PUSH ITS BUDGET THROUGH A DIVIDED PARLIAMENT OVER CONCERNS OF WAGES AND PURCHASING POWER. THE PRIME MINISTER IS DEBT SETH TO MEET LABOR AND EMPLOYMENT GROUPS ON MONDAY TO DISCUSS THEIR DEMANDS. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT WHERE MARKS ARE POSITIONED. WE HAVE MENTIONED WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF AN UNWIND OF THIS YEAR'S A.I. TRADE. THAT'S BEEN FACTORING INTO WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE ASIA SESSION. RIGHT NOW AS YOU CAN SEE, FOR U.S. EQUITY FUTURE A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNSIDE FOR S&P FUTURES. NASDAQ FUTURES LOOKING LIKE THEY'RE POPPING A BIT UP JUST OVER .8%. THOUGH OF COURSE WE MENTIONED ON THURSDAY IT WAS QUITE A BRUISING DAY FOR TECH MORE BROADLY. SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS ESPECIALLY TAKING QUITE A HIT. INJURE STOCK 50 FUTURES POINT DO YOU THINK AS WELL. ALMOST DOWN 1% THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR AND HOW WIDE DOES THIS UNWIND GO, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE YEAR? ALL RIGHT. COMING UP, ALPHA DABI DELIVERS NINE-MONTH EARNINGS FOR 2026. WE DISCUSS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE LANDSCAPE IN THE U.A.E. WITH CHIEF STRATEGIST AND INVESTMENT OFFICER DERRICK NICHOLSON NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ JENNIFER: THIS IS \"HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA.\" OUR TOP STORIES THIS MORNING. A.I. ROUT DEEPENS. CONCERNS OVER REGULATION AND STRETCH VALUATIONS HIT CHIP STOCKS. ASIAN MARKETS LEAD LOSSES AS INVESTORS WORRY ABOUT A DEEPER RESET FOR THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TRADE. OIL GAINS, BUT IS HEADING FOR A STEEP WEEKLY LOSS AS HOPES BUILD FOR AN END TO THE IRAN WAR. DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS ARE THOUGHT TO BE GAINING TRACTION, THOUGH MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN REMAIN. AND TREASURIES JUMP AS INVESTORS SEEK SAFETY FROM THE DEEPENING SELLOFF WITH MARKETS TRIMMING BETS ON FUTURE FED HIKES. IT'S JUST GONE PAST 9:30 A.M. IN THE EMIRATES. 7:30 A.M. HERE. HAPPY FRIDAY TO YOU. IT'S BEEN QUITE A WEEK FOR MARKETS GLOBALLY AND ALSO POLITICS. WE ARE SEEING THAT REFLECTED ACROSS THE BOARD. ESPECIALLY AS IT PERTAINS TO THE TECH TRADE AND WE WANT TO GO SPECIFICALLY TO WHAT THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN ASIA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OF THE FRIDAY SESSION TO DIG INTO THAT A BIT MORE. WINNIE ZHU IS STANDING BY WITH A BIT MORE OF WHAT SHE'S LOOKING AT. WINNIE? WINNIE: WE WERE NOT SEEING MUCH RELIEF IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. ASIAN STOCKS REALLY UNDER PRESSURE WITH LOSSES AT ABOUT 4%. HAVING ITS WORST DAY SINCE APRIL APRIL OF LAST YEAR. IT'S A CONCERN AROUND A POTENTIAL SLOWDOWN IN THE A.I. DATA CENTER BUILDOUT. PLUS THIS WHOLE POSITIONING, AMPLIFYING THE VOLATILITY WE ARE SEEING IN MARKETS TODAY. WE ARE SEEING THE NIKKEI DOWN OVER 6 HEALTH CAREFUL LEADING LOSSES IN ASIA. FOLLOWED BY SOUTH KOREA AS WELL AS TAIWAN WE DID SEIZE SY THESE TWO MARKS REVERSING SOME OF ITS EARLIER LOSSES AFTER SOME NEWS AROUND THE MARK STABILIZATION EFFORT. KOREA EASING SOME OF THESE MARGIN LONG RULES TO CURB THE FORCE SELLING WHILE WE'RE ALSO POTENTIALLY EXPECTING TAIWAN TO ANNOUNCE SOME OF THESE STABILIZATION MEASURES LATE THEY ARE AFTERNOON. BUT MORE THOUGH, WE LOOK AT THE CROSS-ASSET PICTURE. AS WE SEE THE STOCK SELLOFF CONTINUES. INVESTORS ARE ROTATING INTO SOME HAVEN ASSETS. YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE E.O. HERE DOWN ABOUT 18 BASIS POINTS IN JAPAN. SIMILAR MOVES IN THE 10-YEAR YIELD WE ALSO SAW 0-YEAR YIELD IN CHINA REACHED AN INTRA-DAY RECORD LOW AS WELL. WHEN IT COMES TO CURRENCY, YOUR LOOKING AT A TAIWANESE DOLLAR ALSO URN PRESSURE AS THE INVESTORS CONTINUE TO ROTATE OUT OF TAIWANESE STOCKS, ADDING FURTHER PRESSURE TO THE CURRENCY THERE AS WELL. BACK TO YOU, JEN. JENNIFER: THANKS WINNIE. GROUP REVENUE REACHING $15.9 BILLION, TO DISCUSS THESE EARNINGS AND THE OUTLOOK FORS INNING IN THE REGION AND TECH NOR BROADLY, I'M JOINED BY DEREK NICHOLSON, CHIEF OFFICER AT ALPHA DABI HOLDINGS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME ESPECIALLY ON A DAY WHEN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE EARNINGS. LET'S START WITH WHAT WE'VE SEEN FROM ALPHA D A, BI. WHAT CAN YOU SAY ABOUT THE COMMITMENT TO TECH INVESTMENT? KERIK: OUR -- DEREK: ALPHA WAVE THREE GAVE US AN OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE DISCIPLINED ALLOCATION TO THE SECTOR. IMPORTANTLY ON A DAY LIKE TODAY, THAT IS MULTIYEAR INVESTMENT. WE'RE NOT DEPLOYING THAT BILLION DOLLARS TODAY. THIS IS GOING TO BE DRAWN DOWN, BASED ON CAPITAL COMMITMENTS TO THE FUND PROBABLY OVER A FOUR-YEAR TIME HORIZON AND THIS IS ABOUT BACKING A MANAGER KEY ACCESS TO PRIVATE BEST IN CLASS WINNERS, ALREADY IDENTIFIED IN ALPHA WAVE TWO, SPACEX, ANTHROPIC. WE ARE LOOKING TO FIND THOSE WINNERS. IT WILL GIVE US UPSIDE IN THE FUTURE. JENNIFER: I KNOW YOU SAID IT'S A MULTIYEAR A. INCH STRATEGY BUT HOW DO YOU ASSESS WHERE THE AMPLE I. TRADE IS GOING TO BE IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS? DEREK: WE HAVE A LONG-TERM VIEW ON THIS. THIS IS $1 TRILLION INVESTMENT. IT'S GOING TO GROW. CREATE NEW GLOBAL WINNERS, DEFINING THE NEXT GLOBAL CHAMPIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE. AND WE'RE LOOKING TO DEPLOY CAPITAL IN PRIVATE SECTOR, THAT'S GONG TO GIVE US THAT UPSIDE FOR CORE PORTFOLIO. IT GIVES US A GOOD BALANCE AS WE IT'S WORKED FOR US TODAY. WE'VE ACHIEVED $3.8 BILLION AGAIN. SO IT COMPLEMENTS THAT PORTFOLIO AND GIVES US GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSIFY CASE AS WELL. >> ARE YOU CONCERNED ABOUT TECH VALUATIONS? WE HAVE HEARD INVESTORS EXPRESSING CONCERNS ABOUT WHERE THE VALUATIONS ARE HEADED TO, AND WHERE THEY'RE AT RIGHT NOW. >> NO. AS I SAID, THAT IS LONG-TERM VIEW. WE'VE GOT PATIENT CAPITAL, WE'RE LOOKING TO DEPLOY. THIS IS ONLY PART OF OUR CAPITAL ALLEGATION. TODAY WE'VE COMMITTED A BILLION DOLLARS OF WHAT IS ULTIMATELY GOING TO BE A $10 BILLION ALLOCATION. IT SITS WITHIN OUR PORTFOLIO, COMPLEMENTS VALUATIONS CAN ADJUST OVER TIME WE HAVE A LONG-TERM PATIENT VIEW ON CAPITAL ALLOCATION, OUR FOCUS WAS IDENTIFYING THE BEST IN CLASS MANAGER THAT GAVE US ACCESS TO PRIVATE COMPANIES THAT CAN GROW IN THE FUTURE AND ULTIMATELY BECOME THE AMPLE I. I.P.O. CANDIDATES IN THE FUTURE. JENNIFER: WHERE DO YOU SEE THE MOST OPPORTUNITY THEN FOR SOME OF THIS DEPLOYMENT OF CAPITAL? YOU MENTIONED SOME OF THE MAJOR COMPANIES WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS. BUT WHERE DO YOU SEE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRIVATE CREDIT DEPLOYMENT? DEREK: SO TODAY WE HAVE TWO STRATEGIES IN PRIVATE CREDIT. WE RECENTLY ANNOUNCED AN INCREASE IN ALLEGATION TO THE JOINT VENTURE AND WHAT WE LIKED ABOUT THAT WAS, IT WAS TRANSACTIONS SOURCED BY A TYRE ONE COMPANY IN THE SECTOR. THEN YOU HAVE MOBADALA AND INVESTMENT COMMITTEES BOTH REVIEWING TRANSACTIONS. THERE'S MULTISTAGES IN TERMS OF THAT GROWTH IF YOU LOOK AT THE ALLOCATION, WE ARE DOING, THAT CAPITAL WILL BE DEPLOYED IN THE U.S.A. AND EUROPE TODAY, THERE'S OVER 82 COMPANIES WITHIN THAT PORTFOLIO. THIS IS ABOUT INCREASING THAT DIVERSIFY CASE THIS. GEOGRAPHIC REACH AND MOST IMPORTANTLY FOR ALPHA DHABI GIVEN WEIR ALLOCATING TO A.I. IS A RECURRING INCOME STREAM. IT BALANCES OUT THE PORTFOLIO AND THIS IS WHAT OUR PORTFOLIO IS ALL ABOUT. DIVERSITY AND DEPLOYING CAPITAL OVER TIME. JENNIFER: WHICH PART THE MARKET DO YOU AVOID? DEREK: FOR US, WE RUN ENERGY, HEALTH CARE, REAL ESTATE, HOSPITALITY, INVESTMENT, PRIVATE CREDIT. SO AGAIN, IT'S HAVING THE BALANCE IN THE PORTFOLIO. DIVERSIFY CASE IS WHAT'S DELIVERED THE STRONG RESULTS WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. WE DON'T WANT TO GO INTO SECTORS WE ARE NOT EXPERTS OR CURRENTLY INVESTED IN TODAY. THAT'S A DISCIPLINE OF MAKING SURE THAT WE DEPLOY CAPITAL WHERE IT MEETS THE THRESHOLD, SO A RATE OF 15%. WALK AWAY IF SOMETHING DOESN'T PASS THAT. THAT'S WHAT INVESTORS ARE LOOKING FOR. TO SOURCE THOSE TRANSACTION DEREK PLOY CAPITAL IN SECTORS WE ARE IN, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY REMAIN FOCUSED ON THAT RETURN. JENNIFER: WE HAVE SEEN ALPHA DHABI WITH A WEALTH FUND, ABU DHABI OWNS 40% OF THE WEALTH FUND IS THERE THOUGHT OF OFFLOADING SOME OF YOUR HOLDINGS TO THE SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND? DEREK: TODAY THAT'S A CORE PART OF OUR PORTFOLIO. HEALTH CARE GIVES US THAT DIVERSIFY CASE AS SOMETHING DIFFERENT. THE LARGEST HEALTH CARE PLATFORM IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND ONE THAT ALLOWS US GLOBALLY, WE LIKE THE TEAM THERE. AND WE ARE A LONG-TERM HOLDER WITHIN HEALTH CARE. ULTIMATELY, WE ARE AN INVESTMENT HOLDING COMPANY AND WE DO IT TO RECYCLE CAPITAL AND ALL THE COMPANIES IN OUR PORTFOLIO GIVE US THAT OPTIONALITY IN TEMPLES OF WHERE WE WENT TO CONSIDER TO DEPLOY CAPITAL. BUT TODAY WE ARE VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE PARTNERSHIP. I THINK THE BOARD DRIVING A GREAT STRATEGY, EVIDENCED BY THE RETURNS THAT HEALTH CARE TEAMS DELIVERED. JENNIFER: I WANT TO FINISH ON, WE HAVE SEEN A BIT OF ACTIVITY IN TERMS OF DELISTINGS IN THE REGION, SPECIFICALLY THE U.A.E. DOES IT CONCERN YOU THE MESSAGE THAT THAT SENDS TO INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS ON THE CURRENT EQUITY LANDSCAPE IN THE U.A.E. AND THE GULF? DEREK: WE ARE A LISTING HOLDING COMPANY. OUR SALE, SIX COMPANIES AND PART POLIO ARE ALSO LISTED. ONE OF OUR STRATEGIES TO GROW THE COMPANIES AND VALUATION IS TO LIST THOSE COMPANIES IN THE FUTURE FOR POTENTIAL I.P.O. I.P.O. IS SOMETHING WE SUPPORT. CAPITAL MARKETS IS SOMETHING WE WANT TO CONTINUE TO USE OPTIONALITY WITHIN OUR PORTFOLIO. WHILE I CAN UNDERSTAND SOME CONCERNS, THEY'RE NOT PART OF OUR CORE STRATEGY AS A BUSINESS. AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CAPITAL MARKETS AS A WAY TO RECYCLE CAPITAL IN OUR PORTFOLIO. JENNIFER: WE APPRECIATE YOUR TIME IN THE STUDIO WITH US. DEREK NICHOLSON, CHIEF STRATEGIST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER FOR ALPHA DHABI HOLDINGS. THE BANK OF ENGLAND RAISED RATES BY A QUARTER POINT TO 4% IN THE FIRST HIKE IN OVER THREE YEARS WITH GOVERNOR ANDREW BAILEY SIGNALING ANOTHER MOVE IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT IF HIGH ENERGY COSTS RETURN. FOLLOWING THE DECISION, BLOOMBERG TV'S FRANCINE LACQUA ASKED BAILEY IF MARKETS ARE CORRECTLY PRICING IN FOR THEIR HIKES. >> WHEN WE TALK MARKET WE SURVEY MARKS EVERY TIME WE MEET. WE ASK THEM SPECIFICALLY A QUESTION WHICH TRIES TO IN A SENSE GET UNDER THE LID OF THIS THING. AND BASICALLY TRIES TO SUSES OUT WHAT IS THEIR SORT OF CENTRAL EXPECTATION OF WHAT THEY THINK WE WILL DO. AND THEN COMPARE THAT WITH HOW THEY'RE PRICING. AND WE SORT OF TEND TO REGARD THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE TWO NUMBERS AS THE RISK PREMIUM. IT'S AN IMPRECISE LOGIC. WHAT WE GET BACK IS BROADLY, THERE'S PROBABLY ANOTHER ONE INTHERE I'M NOT ENDORSING THAT BY THE WAY, JUST TO BE REALLY CLEAR. BUT THAT'S WHAT THEY THINK. SO THERE'S A RISK PREMIUM WHICH, TO YOUR NUMBER, WOULD EXPLAIN THE REST. NOW I DON'T THINK THAT'S -- I DON'T THINK THAT'S SURPRISING OR IMPLAUSIBLE. WE'RE LIVING IN A HUGELY UNCERTAIN TIME. THE FACT THAT WE'VE GOT A BIGGER RISK PREMIUM WHICH IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE IF YOU DO THE TIME SERIES ON THIS THING. WELL, YOU KNOW, SIT A SURPRISE GIVEN THAT WE'RE LIVING IN THESE UNUSUAL, DIFFICULT TIMES? >> WOULD YOU SAY IT'S A DEFAULT OPTION? >> I THINK IT REALLY DEPENDS, AS YOU SAID QUITE RIGHTLY, ON WHAT HAPPENS TO ENERGY PRICES. THAT REALLY DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THERE IS PROGRESS ON A PROCESS TO SETTLE THIS. I THINK IF THERE'S NO PROGRESS ON THIS, PARTICULARLY IF WE -- OIL PRICES COME DOWN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS, MORE THAN GAS PRICES. GAS PRICES A BIT, OIL PRICES COME DOWN MORE. LET'S SAY WE DON'T HAVE ANY OF THIS, WE HAVE ENERGY PRICES WHERE THEY WERE. I THINK AS I SAID IN MY CONTRIBUTION TO THE MINUTE, I'M AFRAID THE SECOND RAISE IS PROBABLY MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. BUT YOU KNOW, IER IF HAVEN'TLY HOPE THAT WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE, WHAT WE'RE BEGUN TO SEE PROGRESS ON THAT FRONT, THAT'LL GET REFLECTED IN MARKET PRICING. BUT I'M NOT GOING TO GIVE YOU PREDICTIONS AS TO HOW THAT WILL MOVE. THERE'S LOTS OF MOVING PARTS IN THIS. BUT I THINK THAT REALLY IS, YOU'RE RIGHT TO SAY THAT'S WHERE THE ACTION IS JENNIFER: IN YOUR MIND YOU'RE NOT WAITING FOR EVIDENCE. YOUR RISK JUDGMENT IS ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT HIKE? >> THERE IS EVIDENCE BEHIND IT. THE RISKS ARE ON THE UPSIDE AT THE MOMENT. BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. THAT WILL CHANGE I THINK IF WE GET SOLID EVIDENCE THAT, AGAIN, PRICES ARE MOVING IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION ON A SUSTAINED BASIS. JENNIFER: THAT WAS BANK OF ENGLAND GOVERNOR ANDREW BAILEY SPEAKING WITH FRANCINE LACQUA. THEY FACE LOSING DUTY-FREE ACCESS TO THE U.S. MARK, WHAT THAT COULD MEAN FOR TRADE AND INVESTMENTS. THAT'S NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ JENNIFER: WELCOME BACK TO \"HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA.\" SOUTH AFRICA'S A.N.C. PARTY IS ON COURSE TO LOSE FURTHER SUPPORT IN MUNICIPAL LEKS AS VOTERS EXPRESS FRUSTRATION OVER FAILING PUBLIC SERVICES. WITH HALF THE BALLOTS COUNTED, THEY HAVE ABOUT 32% SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE AT ROUGHLY 25%. FINAL RESULTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INVESTORS WATCHING FOR ANY SHIFT TOWARD OPPOSITION PARTIES AND THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NATIONAL RULING COALITION. ETHIOPIA IS NOW AFRICA'S FIFTH LARGEST ECONOMY AFTER OVERHAULING ITS NATIONAL ACCOUNTS TO BETTER CAPTURE SECTORS INCLUDING DIGITAL SERVICES. THE GOVERNMENT SAYS G.D.P. REACHED NEARLY $211 BILLION IN THE FISCAL YEAR ENDING IN JULY WITH THE REBASING SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING THE ESTIMATED SIZE OF THE ECONOMY. ALL RIGHT. COMING UP. SOUTH AFRICA LOOKS TO RESET TIES WITH WASHINGTON AS IT FACES LOSING DUTY-FREE ACCESS TO THE U.S. MARKET. CIEDZA MADZIMA JOINS US TO DISCUSS WHAT THAT COULD MEAN FOR TRADE AND INVESTMENTS. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ JENNIFER: WELCOME BACK TO \"HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA.\" SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT CYRIL RAMAPOSA SAID HE HOPES FOR RENEWED TALKS WITH WASHINGTON AFTER THE LEKS. THIS AFTER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION THREATENED TO STRIP THEM OF THEIR STATUS WITHIN THE TRADE ACT. THAT COULD HIT AUTOS AND AGRICULTURE. PRAYER TOA HAS 60 DAYS TO MAKE ITS CASE BEFORE THE MEASURES TAKE EFFECT. CHIEDZA: ING US IS CHIEDZA MADZIMA. MANY PEOPLE ANTICIPATED THIS DECISION. NOW THAT IT HAS COME, WHAT'S THE MESSAGE YOU THINK THE U.S. IS SENDING TO SOUTH AFRICA? CHIEDZA: GREAT, THANKS FOR THE QUESTION. I THINK THE KEY MESSAGE THAT WE ARE SEEING IS THAT, WITH THE NEW CONGRESS, WE COULD SEE A SOMEWHAT MORE RECEPTIVE POLITICAL AUDIENCE FOR PRAETORIA BUT THE BACKGROUND IS ONE OF A BIPARTISAN, OR BIPARTISAN CONCERNS. AROUND SOME OF SOUTH AFRICA'S FOREIGN POLICY POSITIONS AS WELL AS AROUND SOME OF SOUTH AFRICA'S DOMESTIC POLICY AS WELL. WITH THE NEW CONGRESS WE COULD SEE A BROAD-BASED PUSHBACK AGAINST THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S SORT OF BROADER TARIFF AGENDA. BUT I THINK OTHER THERE ARE OTHER DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICIES THAT WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE OVER SOUTH AFRICA'S MOST NEAR TERM CONCERNS AT THIS JUNCTURE. JENNIFER: HOW DETRIMENTAL COULD BEING REMOVED FROM AGOA BE FOR SOUTH AFRICA? CHIEDZA: I THINK REMOVAL FROM AGOA FOR SOUTH AFRICA ESSENTIALLY MEANS THAT, THOSE CURRENCIES THAT RECEIVE PREFERENCE WILL REVERT TO NORMAL AND BY OUR CALCULATIONS WE'RE LOOK AT AROUND A ONE PERCENTAGE POINT INCREASE IN THE ACTUAL AVERAGE TRADE WEIGHTED EFFECTIVE TARIFF RATE. BUT OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE SECTOR. YOU KNOW. IN TERMS OF SPECIFIC EFFECTIVE TARIFF RATE IMPACTS. FOR AUTOS I THINK THE BIGGEST HIT RIGHT NOW, OR BIGGEST CONCERN, ARE THE SECTION 232 TARIFFS THAT ALREADY IMPOSE A 25% ADDITIONAL TARIFF RATE ON THAT PARTICULAR SECTOR. I KNOW THERE'S SOME CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY SURROUNDINGAL CURTURE, BUT THERE ARE ACTUALLY CATEGORIES WITHIN THAT SEGMENT, PARTICULARLY WHEN YOU LOOK AT CITRUS, THAT ARE EXEMPT ALTOGETHER FROM SECTION 301 TARIFFS SO AN INCREASE IN THE MFN OR MOST FAVORED NATION TARIFF RATE STILL KEEPS SOUTH AFRICA REAL TYLY COMPETITIVE OR A DISADVANTAGE COMPARED TO OTHER EXPORTING NATIONS, PARTICULARLY COMPETITORS LIKE THE LIKES OF CHILE, PERU AND IN THAT SEGMENT. BUT CERTAINLY THE -- THERE WILL BE SOME PRESSURE ON CERTAIN PROVINCES LIKE IN THE CAPE. CERTAIN COMMUNITIES AS A RESULT OF THE OVERALL INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE TARIFF TRADES DUE TO THE REMOVAL OF AGOA IF THAT COMES TO PASS COME JANUARY. JENNIFER: DO YOU THINK PRAETORI AND SOUTH AFRICA MORE BROADLY HAS A CASE TO MAKE FOR REMAINING IN THIS TRADE PACT? OR DO YOU THINK THEY CHOOSE TO MAUVE FORWARD AND NOT MAKE THIS NECESSARILY A PRIORITY? HOW DO YOU SEE SOUTH AFRICA'S POSITIONING OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS? CHIEDZA: I THINK AGOA HAS BEEN QUITE BENEFICIAL TO VARIOUS SECTOR, WE MENTIONED AG, THE AUTO SECTOR, SO THERE'S CERTAINLY A CASE TO BE MADE PARTICULARLY FROM SOUTH AFRICA, SO I THINK THERE SHOULD BE A MORE SORT OF COHESIVE PUSH TO RESET TRADE RELATIONS, RESET TIES AND MAYBE EVEN MOVE TOWARD ESTABLISHING SORT OF BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONSHIP, FIRMING THAT UP WITH THE UNITED STATES MOVING FORWARD. EVEN PRIOR TO SOUTH AFRICA'S SORT OF ANNOUNCED REMOVAL FROM AGOA. THERE WERE CONCERNS SURROUNDING SOUTH AFRICA'S INCOME LEVELS AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PARTY TO THE AGREEMENT AND OF COURSE THE CASE WAS ARGUED FOR SOUTH AFRICA TO REMAIN WITHIN THE CONFINES OF AGOA BACK THEN. SO WITH CONGRESS BEING MORE SORT OF DEMOCRAT-LEAN, THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY MORE SORT OF POSITIVE POLITICAL AUDIENCE FOR PRAETORIA'S CONCERNS. BUT AGAIN THIS COULD BE A SLOW PROCESS. A SLOW, SORT OF DIPLOMATIC RE-ENGAGEMENT AND ENGAGEMENT PROCESS SO WE CAN'T ASSUME AT THIS JUNCTURE THAT CONGRESS WILL DEVOTE HUGE AMOUNTS OF LEGISLATIVE TIME AND POLITICAL CAPITAL TO AGOA OR EVEN SOME OF THE HARDER TO MOVE INDIVIDUAL TARIFF INSTRUMENTS OVER THE COURSE OF THIS YEAR AND GOING INTO NEXT YEAR. JENNIFER: RIGHT. HARD TO MAKE MANY ASSUMPTIONS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. ALL WE CAN DO IS ASSESS WHERE WE ARE AT. CHIEDZA MADZIMA. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US THERE. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT MARKETS. OF COURSE IT HAS BEEN QUITE A BUSY WEEK AS WE WERE MENTIONING FOR CENTRAL BANK ACTIVITY. THERE'S OF COURSE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS AND NOW WE'RE SEEING THAT FACTORED INTO MORE BROADLY THE TECH TRADE ALTHOUGH AS YOU CAN SEE FOR U.S. EQUITY FUTURE, NASDAQ FUTURES POINTING HIGHER RIGHT NOW. DIFFERENT IF YOU LOOK ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. BUT THAT IS WHERE WE LEAVE IT FOR HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA. STICK WITH US FOR \"DAYBREAK EUROPE.\" THIS IS BLOOMBERG.","textShort":"Eisenkot Wins 67 Backers as Israel Awaits Government Decision, Oil Slides on Iran Talks\n\nOUR TOP STORIES THIS MORNING, AI ROUT D BEEN SPARED THE GLOBAL TECH SELLOFF INTENSIFIES AS CONCERNS OUR REREGULATION AND STRETCH VALUATIONS HIT CHIP STOCKS. ASIAN MARKETS LEAD LOSSES AS…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3LGYMP6cz4"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T07:26:01.473Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[{"kind":"signal","proposal":{"market":"[\"hyperliquid\",\"io\",\"io:NBIS\"]"},"reason":"duplicate_asset"}],"id":"246ed8a2-f09f-459e-b9db-8b69e5109eba","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["I do think AI, Space, and Physical AI are the future","I’m remaining long, and using this time to maximize exposure to the winners"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source believes AI, space, and physical AI are future growth areas and says they are staying long to increase exposure to winners.","topic":"ai, space, and physical ai"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Bitcoin $1000 -> $18,000 -> $3000 -> $100,000 cycle"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The source recalls Bitcoin going through large price swings before later reaching a much higher price.","topic":"bitcoin's past price cycle"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["1-3x P/E memory companies and $AXTI substrate bottlenecks are more durable than markets think"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source thinks low-valuation memory companies and AXTI's substrate bottlenecks are more durable than the market expects.","topic":"memory companies and axti"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["$SIVE has moonshot potential to be the next $LITE"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source says SIVE could have substantial upside, comparing its potential to LITE.","topic":"sive upside potential"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:RKLB","confidence":0.67,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":46.8565,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects Rocket Lab could become a SpaceX-like winner.","id":"sig_08426895f0074f43a1606747","matched":["$RKLB could end up the next $SPCX"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source thinks RKLB could grow into a company like SpaceX, suggesting room for its shares to rise.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"RKLB","tags":["space","growth stocks"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:NBIS","confidence":0.7,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":1,"entryPx":124.81,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Sees potential for NBIS to become a hyperscaler.","id":"sig_2762e23ff2c04b36ac68c402","matched":["$NBIS has the potential to be the next hyperscaler"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source thinks NBIS could become a major cloud-computing company, which could lift its shares.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":true,"sym":"NBIS","tags":["cloud computing","ai"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"0eb374c3-b1c9-4804-a64e-66aa24f6aecc","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T07:24:39.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1996176688414367744/LXfA_lIx_normal.jpg","handle":"@aleabitoreddit","id":"x-1940360837547565056","name":"Serenity","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Everyone’s a long term investor for 2027, 2028, or 2029 onward\n\nUntil their portfolio experiences volatility months in. I still think:\n\n- $RKLB could end up the next $SPCX\n\n- $NBIS has the potential to be the next hyperscaler\n\n- $SIVE has moonshot potential to be the next $LITE\n\n- 1-3x P/E memory companies and $AXTI substrate bottlenecks are more durable than markets think\n\nAnd that it’s stupid to sell single digit fwd P/E AI companies or promising longs.\n\nAnd rotate that into 5% growth towel resellers at 47x P/E. Or 180x cyber companies, just because they’re going up.\n\nI’ve seen $AMD go from the $3 valley of doom to $400 as people thought it could be the next $INTC / $NVDA.\n\nAnd been through the Bitcoin $1000 -> $18,000 -> $3000 -> $100,000 cycle.\n\nNot advice on how to position or trade, but anyone on extreme leverage during those times got wiped out. \n\nWhile the underlying assets sharply recovered later.\n\nI do think AI, Space, and Physical AI are the future.\n\nSo, I’m remaining long, and using this time to maximize exposure to the winners\n\nQuoting: @aleabitoreddit 牢白啊，你为什么还死守着这几个票不放啊，就不能找点新机会吗？","textShort":"Everyone’s a long term investor for 2027, 2028, or 2029 onward\n\nUntil their portfolio experiences volatility months in. I still think:\n\n- $RKLB could end up the next $SPCX\n\n- $NBIS has the potential to be the next hyperscaler\n\n- $SIVE has moonshot potential to be the next…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2118605467459199016"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T06:47:02.887Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"5164fbb5-3219-4e19-8c30-883e9bd2933e","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["price action is really fragile here","The professionals are actually running for cover"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The speaker describes fragile price action, with professional investors retreating and limited buying support.","topic":"equity market conditions"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["the global consumer has started to outperform","We've seen good results actually from long dead names"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The speaker says global consumer stocks have started outperforming technology, with some US retailers reporting good results.","topic":"global consumer stocks"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["the Chinese who have been much more constrained in their capital spending outperforming"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The speaker says Chinese companies have recently outperformed as Japan and Korea have weakened.","topic":"chinese market performance"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["moment of reckoning for long duration AI trades","any kind of certainty around future cash flow has disappeared"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The speaker says uncertainty about future AI cash flows is undermining long-duration trades.","topic":"ai long duration trades"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["Wall Street Journal now talking about it might not even do the 1,500,000,000,000"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The speaker relays a Wall Street Journal report that Anthropic's IPO may fall short of a previously discussed valuation.","topic":"anthropic ipo outlook"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["the Koreans and the Taiwanese are exposed twice over","which may not be used up"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The speaker says Taiwanese companies are exposed to uncertain AI spending and investment in capacity that may go unused.","topic":"taiwan ai exposure"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:EWJ","confidence":0.76,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":86.872,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects Japanese equities to remain under pressure amid AI-investment concerns","id":"sig_5ed836aa7c8e42548860bc6d","matched":["Japan and Korea on the downside","These companies have expanded very aggressively","which may not be used up"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"The speaker says Japan is on the downside because companies expanded aggressively for AI demand that may not materialize as expected.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"EWJ","tags":["japan","equities","ai investment"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:EWY","confidence":0.76,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":136.455,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects South Korean equities to remain under pressure amid AI-investment concerns","id":"sig_8aa487989f074c63bf40f4df","matched":["Japan and Korea on the downside","These companies have expanded very aggressively","which may not be used up"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"The speaker says Korea is on the downside because companies expanded aggressively for AI demand that may not materialize as expected.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"EWY","tags":["south korea","equities","ai investment"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"xyz:SOFTBANK","confidence":0.68,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":22.464,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects SoftBank to face pressure as long-duration AI trades get a reality check","id":"sig_c27612acafa64b02ad044422","matched":["long duration AI trades","reality check","as much as SoftBank is"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The speaker says SoftBank is a long-duration AI play and expects those trades to face a reality check as future cash flows become less certain.","routing":"direct","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"SOFTBANK","tags":["ai","long duration trades","cash flows"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"c8604411-0a3c-4457-ac62-10ec9bf7a0af","marks":[{"at":62,"t":0},{"at":1207,"t":64},{"at":2187,"t":123},{"at":3229,"t":186}],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T06:45:46.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://yt3.googleusercontent.com/4-w44catDebzaDSUWgereql0G5_z5o7VpJXuIYL_eZ3H1vXy0lTmrole9V500jTUXCnQPZ5CuKQ=s900-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj","handle":"@markets","id":"yt-UCIALMKvObZNtJ6AmdCLP7Lg","name":"Bloomberg Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Stocks Rout: AI Selloff Deepens as Japan, South Korea Tumble\n\nAnthony, is this a moment of reckoning then in the AI trades? It's a moment of reckoning for long duration AI trades. Right? Anybody that has cash flow that is limited now that's playing for increased cash flow in the distant future is going to get a reality check because we do not know what is going to happen in the present with the new with the new democratic senators. What are their policies around data centers? You know, they're still in gestation period. These senators do not have power yet. They are on social media speculating about what they will and will not do. And as a result, any kind of certainty around future cash flow has disappeared. And we are seeing that in the spike in tech volatility, the fall in the bonds of the likes of SoftBank, for example, and then this new uncertainty around the Anthropic IPO. Right? That IPO went from potentially being 2,000,000,000,000 to 1,500,000,000,000 to the Wall Street Journal now talking about it might not even do the 1,500,000,000,000, and they just want to get it off. Right? So that IPO becomes a very pivotal clearing event, for for the trade... AI trade. And now the Koreans and the Taiwanese are exposed twice over. They are not looking like they're going to get the money that they were promised, from the AI CapEx build, and president Trump has made them invest in The US in new capacity, which may not be used up. Right? So that is what is driving some of this institutional panic in Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. These companies have expanded very aggressively. They put two or three years worth of cash flow to work expanding facilities, a multiyear run. So they are also a long duration AI play as much as Anthropic is, as much as SoftBank is. And whoever has been caught borrowing money made today to invest tomorrow or next year or 2029 in AI, those are the people that are exposed. And you can see that clearly by forgetting in the market with the Chinese who have been much more constrained in their capital spending outperforming, and Japan and Korea on the downside. But, Stephen, we do need to talk about the positioning angle of this sell off. Indeed. Well, let's talk about how... What's been happening with hedge funds because those hedge fund trades are unwinding. How important is that to what we're seeing in the broader markets? We've been seeing a headline every hour essentially of a hedge fund either shutting the book, firing managers, reducing exposure, rebalancing to financials. It's been a really traumatic couple of months. October was horrendous for a lot of tech specialist funds, and they were not expecting November to start so badly. And now we just have about a month left in the year, and people are navigating an extremely sharp rotation. Not only is tech underperforming, the global consumer has started to outperform. We've seen good results actually from long dead names like Leinning or Tapestry in The US. So this kind of re... Toyota, retailing, these kind of long dead names that are... Consensus shots are squeezing just as tech is falling over. This is a really bad combination of events for the equity long short funds. The credit space also saw people gorging on AI data center risk, and now they have no idea of what the cash flow situation on that data stuff looks like when those data centers are going to get built, especially in The US. So there's a lot of hedge fund uncertainty, and the liquidity window for them to exit is closing. It's very interesting to see today in the price action, the marginal buyer is either the local state funds in Korea and Taiwan, buybacks from the companies themselves, or local retail investors. There isn't really a professional bid catching the markets here even though we've bounced around four and a half percent off those traumatic lows in the morning. So price action is really fragile here. The professionals are actually running for cover, and it's the average person that's looking to double down here.","textShort":"Stocks Rout: AI Selloff Deepens as Japan, South Korea Tumble\n\nAnthony, is this a moment of reckoning then in the AI trades? It's a moment of reckoning for long duration AI trades. Right? Anybody that has cash flow that is limited now that's playing for increased cash flow in…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q30pLqQ2tYI"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T06:19:37.063Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"ab2663b1-e646-42ae-bef9-5b19f8271669","observations":[{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["CONTINUE TO CLIMB OVER $100 PER BARREL","BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"Brent is reported to be climbing above $100 per barrel amid uncertainty.","topic":"brent crude"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["FLIGHT BACK INTO FIXED INCOME"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The Chinese 10-year yield is reported at a record low as investors move into fixed income during the market rout.","topic":"chinese 10 year yield"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["BITCOIN NEAR A SEVEN-WEEK LOW","THE ROUT SPREADS BEYOND JUST EQUITIES"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"Bitcoin is reported to be near a seven-week low as the market rout spreads beyond equities.","topic":"bitcoin"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["TECH SHARES IN A FREEFALL ACROSS THE ASIA-PACIFIC.","U.S. POLITICAL SHIFT CLOUDS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE AI BUILDOUT"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The report describes a broad tech selloff across Asia-Pacific amid uncertainty about the AI buildout.","topic":"asia pacific tech stocks"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["MORE CONSTRUCTIVE FOR CHINA","ANYTHING WHICH ESSENTIALLY BETTER POSITIONS CHINA'S AI"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"John Woods thinks turmoil in U.S. AI markets could be constructive for China's relative AI position.","topic":"china ai competitiveness"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["I THINK THIS IS MORE POSITIONAL THAN FUNDAMENTAL.","IF THE DEMS WERE TO FOLLOW UP WITH CLEAR GUIDELINES"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The report highlights worries about regulation, while John Woods views the selloff as mainly positional and says easing policy concerns could bring a bounce.","topic":"ai equities"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:XLE","confidence":0.75,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":61.9145,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"John Woods expects energy stocks to benefit as AI adoption spreads","id":"sig_7555406fc9e545c298c7e45b","matched":["ENERGY SECTOR","THESE ARE THE SECTORS WE THINK WILL DO WELL"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"John Woods expects energy stocks to do well because he sees them as beneficiaries as AI rollout broadens.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"XLE","tags":["energy","ai beneficiaries"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"044a7218-a473-4695-acf4-850bf6ade7bc","marks":[{"at":46,"t":7},{"at":543,"t":38},{"at":1026,"t":79},{"at":1615,"t":133},{"at":2084,"t":168},{"at":2464,"t":199},{"at":2872,"t":230},{"at":3229,"t":261},{"at":3740,"t":298},{"at":4457,"t":359},{"at":4970,"t":401},{"at":5500,"t":445},{"at":5862,"t":476},{"at":6291,"t":512},{"at":6737,"t":547},{"at":7182,"t":581},{"at":7835,"t":642},{"at":8367,"t":676},{"at":8928,"t":718},{"at":9412,"t":751},{"at":9570,"t":790},{"at":10030,"t":829},{"at":10492,"t":872},{"at":11422,"t":939},{"at":11808,"t":973},{"at":12294,"t":1008},{"at":12957,"t":1054},{"at":13657,"t":1102},{"at":14068,"t":1132},{"at":14495,"t":1167},{"at":14843,"t":1211},{"at":15263,"t":1250},{"at":15656,"t":1285},{"at":16476,"t":1348},{"at":16683,"t":1398},{"at":17207,"t":1437},{"at":17540,"t":1469},{"at":17949,"t":1505},{"at":18461,"t":1542},{"at":18970,"t":1589},{"at":19535,"t":1627},{"at":19891,"t":1660},{"at":20397,"t":1698},{"at":20825,"t":1734},{"at":21266,"t":1765},{"at":21665,"t":1797},{"at":22196,"t":1832},{"at":22911,"t":1895},{"at":23352,"t":1933},{"at":23852,"t":1970},{"at":24612,"t":2031},{"at":25077,"t":2097},{"at":25654,"t":2150},{"at":26225,"t":2190},{"at":26949,"t":2255},{"at":27347,"t":2293},{"at":27696,"t":2324},{"at":28163,"t":2366},{"at":28784,"t":2422},{"at":29138,"t":2457},{"at":29527,"t":2497},{"at":29914,"t":2529},{"at":30468,"t":2588},{"at":30826,"t":2622},{"at":31328,"t":2658},{"at":31636,"t":2693},{"at":32143,"t":2734},{"at":32735,"t":2795},{"at":33198,"t":2837},{"at":33558,"t":2867},{"at":34202,"t":2917},{"at":34523,"t":2954},{"at":34896,"t":2984},{"at":35288,"t":3019},{"at":35774,"t":3059},{"at":36380,"t":3104},{"at":37163,"t":3164},{"at":37642,"t":3199},{"at":38258,"t":3242},{"at":38876,"t":3288},{"at":39485,"t":3334},{"at":40032,"t":3373},{"at":40437,"t":3405},{"at":40828,"t":3435},{"at":41434,"t":3481},{"at":42008,"t":3525},{"at":42539,"t":3562},{"at":42756,"t":3593},{"at":43209,"t":3630},{"at":43690,"t":3669},{"at":44047,"t":3701},{"at":44546,"t":3746},{"at":44883,"t":3779},{"at":45381,"t":3822},{"at":45969,"t":3870},{"at":46496,"t":3907},{"at":47202,"t":3969},{"at":47600,"t":4008},{"at":48098,"t":4042},{"at":48554,"t":4074},{"at":48777,"t":4108},{"at":49299,"t":4158},{"at":49720,"t":4205},{"at":50078,"t":4242},{"at":50595,"t":4292},{"at":51222,"t":4340},{"at":51737,"t":4381},{"at":52504,"t":4439},{"at":52958,"t":4474},{"at":53728,"t":4540},{"at":54166,"t":4572},{"at":54673,"t":4605},{"at":55128,"t":4640},{"at":55687,"t":4679},{"at":56118,"t":4715},{"at":56501,"t":4751},{"at":56848,"t":4795},{"at":57376,"t":4840},{"at":57960,"t":4879},{"at":58438,"t":4915},{"at":58981,"t":4955},{"at":59507,"t":4999},{"at":60117,"t":5060},{"at":60494,"t":5103},{"at":60831,"t":5135},{"at":61165,"t":5165},{"at":61965,"t":5227},{"at":62339,"t":5264},{"at":63159,"t":5328},{"at":63753,"t":5391},{"at":64048,"t":5428},{"at":64479,"t":5461},{"at":65061,"t":5498},{"at":65580,"t":5541}],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T06:13:39.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://yt3.googleusercontent.com/4-w44catDebzaDSUWgereql0G5_z5o7VpJXuIYL_eZ3H1vXy0lTmrole9V500jTUXCnQPZ5CuKQ=s900-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj","handle":"@markets","id":"yt-UCIALMKvObZNtJ6AmdCLP7Lg","name":"Bloomberg Television","platform":"youtube"},"status":"analyzed","text":"China Tech Stocks Slide in Broad Market Rout\n\n>> I THINK IT IS A HICCUP TO THE BROADER CYCLE OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE DATA CENTERS. >> I THINK WE WILL SEE SOME CLASHES BETWEEN THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION AND THE NEW PEOPLE COMING IN. I THINK THAT IS BAD FOR MARKETS. >> THE REALITY IS SETTING IN THAT THE WINS PARTICULARLY AT THE STATE AND LOCAL LEVEL, PARTICULARLY IN OHIO, TEXAS AND GEORGIA, ARE GOING TO PUT IN PERIL SO TO SPEAK SOME OF THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GAINS. >> IT IS NOT LINEAR HOW THAT WILL HAPPEN, BUT WE STILL HAVE CONFIDENCE IT WILL. IT JUST MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLOWER. >> THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGY INVENTED IN MY LIFETIME. THIS IS EXTRAORDINARY SO LET'S CALM DOWN. YVONNE: THERE IS NO CALMING DOWN TRADERS JUST YET AFTER U.S. TECH WIPED OUT BILLIONS OF DOLLARS. I'M YVONNE MAN. DAVID: I'M DAVID INGALLS. I WOULD LIKE TO SAY HAPPY FRIDAY, BUT IT'S ANYTHING BUT. TECH SHARES IN A FREEFALL ACROSS THE ASIA-PACIFIC. THAT IS AS THE U.S. POLITICAL SHIFT CLOUDS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE AI BUILDOUT, LEADING DECLINES. SAMSUNG AND SK HYNIX AND WE ARE WATCHING TAIWAN COMING ON LINE DOWN 10% ON THE MARKET. YVONNE: AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH BRENT. WE HAVE COME OFF SOME, BUT WE ARE SEEING A CONTINUE TO CLIMB OVER $100 PER BARREL BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY, ADDING TO THE PAIN TO INVESTORS. DAVID: A FLIGHT TO SAFETY, BITCOIN NEAR A SEVEN-WEEK LOW AS THE ROUT SPREADS BEYOND JUST EQUITIES. [MUSIC PLAYS] YVONNE: IT TOOK A DAY I THINK FOR THINGS TO SINK IN. I THINK YESTERDAY WAS ALL ABOUT THE OIL PRICE, GIVEN THE DROP, THAT MAYBE THIS MEANT A FASTER END TO THE IRAN WAR WITH THE DEMOCRATIC SWEEP. TODAY SEEMS ABOUT AI AND WHAT THE DEMS COULD DO WITH REGULATION. DAVID: I THINK WE WAIT FOR MORE CLARITY HOW THAT LOOKS. OUT OF WASHINGTON THERE IS AN ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE AROUND THE POLICY FRICTION THAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE. MARKETS ARE RUSHING TO THE EXITS. THEY WILL ASK QUESTIONS LATER. I'M LOOKING AT TAIWAN, THE LATEST MARKET TO COME ONLINE. IN THE OPENING MINUTES WE ARE DOWN 9% ON THE BENCHMARK IN TAIWAN COME ABOUT 1000 STOCKS ARE DOWN, SO IT IS PRETTY WIDE. WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF SUPERLATIVES. YVONNE: JAPAN IS IN A BEAR MARKET. 20% OFF THE PEAKS THAT WE SAW IN JUNE. AS WE TALK ABOUT TAIWAN AND THE PRESSURE. THE OIL STORY IS NOT HELPING GARY YESTERDAY WE HAD THE BIG DROP. NOW THINGS ARE CLIMBING AGAIN, THAT DOESN'T HELP WHEN IT COMES TO RISK ASSETS. MARKETS. ONCE THINGS GET WASHED OUT WILL WE SEE A CENTER RALLY IS THE KEY QUESTION. DAVID: IF YOU WERE WAITING FOR A BUYING OPPORTUNITY, COULD BE THIS. WE WILL GET INTO ALL OF THE WEEDS OF THIS. THE FUNDAMENTAL STORY CHANGE? AS OTHER MARKETS COME ONLINE, THE FUTURES OF NOTE, THE DOUBLE DIGIT DROP WE HAD ON THESE STOCKS INDEX OVERNIGHT, JUST WIPING OUT ALL THE GAINS FOR THE YEAR. IT IS NOW TRADING AT 12 TIMES EARNINGS, WHICH IS THE CHEAPEST NVIDIA GOING BACK ABOUT 10 YEARS ON A PE BASIS. THIS IS EVEN BEFORE AI BECAME MAINSTREAM. WITH THESE DECLINES TODAY, IT'S POSSIBLE THE CSI 300 ACTUALLY EXTENDS THE WEEKLY LOSING STREAK TO 13. YVONNE: IT IS INTERESTING, IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT, ONE BRIGHT SPOT WAS THE GOLDEN DRAGON SLIGHTLY TO THE UPSIDE. AMIDST THIS VIOLENT ROTATION WE ARE SEEING, MAYBE THERE IS VALUE EMERGING IN CHINA. THAT IS A BIG MAYBE AS WE CONTINUE TO TRACK THAT. ONE THING TO WATCH CLOSELY. YOU MENTIONED NVIDIA, JENSEN HUANG GOT KNOCKED OFF THE TOP 10 RICH LIST WHEN IT COMES TO THE WEALTH WIPED OUT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. DAVID: FROM REAL LEATHER TWO LEATHER WRAPPED. IN TERMS OF THE FLIGHT TO SAFETY, THE SWISS FRANC IS UP AGAINST EVERYTHING ELSE, THE YEN IS UP AGAINST EVERYTHING ELSE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SWISS FRANC. THE BOND MARKETS, THE TWO YEAR YIELD OF THE U.S. BACK BELOW --WHAT ARE WE DOING NOW? BELOW 4.5%. BONDS ARE BIG. JUST ABOUT ACROSS THE BOARD, NOT ENTIRELY. THE DROP IN THE JAPANESE YIELD IS INDICATIVE OF THIS FLIGHT TO SAFETY THIS FRIDAY. LET'S BRING IN JOHN WOODS, HEAD OF INVESTMENTS AT LOMBARD. GOOD MORNING. JOHN: GOOD MORNING. DAVID: ANY PORT IN A VIOLENT STORM? I CANNOT FIND A PORT IN THE PRICE ACTION TODAY. JOHN: I GUESS IT DEPENDS ON THE INTERPRETATION. IF YOU ARE OF THE VIEW THAT THE PRICE ACTION LAST NIGHT MARKED THE PEAK OF AI SPENDING, THEN OF COURSE IT HAS QUITE BEARISH IMPLICATIONS BECAUSE IT SUGGESTS THAT WE HAVE TO READJUST OUR GROWTH IN GENERAL. CONVERSELY, IF YOU ARE OF THE VIEW THIS WAS MORE OF A POSITIONAL WASHOUT, MARKETS REPRICING EXPECTATIONS AROUND AI RATHER THAN FUNDAMENTALS, IT'S POSSIBLE YOU SEE THIS EVENT MORE AS A TECHNICAL TRADE, MORE OF A REVERSE SQUEEZE AS IT WERE. AND YOU GET A REPRICING. AND WE ALL KNOW THAT IN EVERY LONG BULL MARKET THERE ARE INSTANCES WHERE YOU GET A MIDCYCLE CORRECTION, 10%, 15% QUITE COMMON, AND THIS IS IT. I HAVE TO SAY THAT IF THIS IS A CORRECTION, IT'S POSSIBLY THE MOST ANTICIPATED ONE IN RECENT MEMORY. EVERY TIME WE OPEN THE NEWSPAPER OR LISTEN TO THE RADIO, THERE ARE EXPECTATIONS OF A PRONOUNCED SELLOFF GIVEN THE IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE IN THE MARKET. I'M TILTING RIGHT NOW TOWARDS THE LATTER INTERPRETATION. I THINK THIS IS MORE POSITIONAL THAN FUNDAMENTAL. I ASKED MYSELF, IS THE AI STORY OVERCOME AND I DON'T GET A FIRM SINCE IT IS. YVONNE: EVEN IF THE DEMOCRATS DO SOMETHING IN TERMS OF REGULATION ON DATA CENTERS AND THE BUILDOUT? DO YOU THINK THIS DISRUPTS CAPEX SPEND? JOHN: POLICY IS VERY IMPORTANT. I'VE NOTICED ALREADY THIS MORNING THAT SOME OF THE COMMENTS FROM THE DEMS AROUND THE SUSPENSION OR THE PROPOSED SUSPENSION OF DATA CENTERS IN TEXAS AND NOW BEEN DIALED BACK. THE LATEST THAT I'VE READ IS THAT DATA CENTERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO COMPLETE UNTIL 2028, 2029 IF I'M NOT WRONG. THAT SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE VIOLENCE OF THE SELLOFF LAST NIGHT HAS IMPLICATIONS, AND I DON'T THINK THAT THE DEMS REALLY WANT TO HAVE THEIR IMPRINT ON THAT. THE DAY BEFORE YESTERDAY WE ADDED 1.5 TRILLION TO THE S&P. LAST NIGHT WE TOOK AWAY 3 TRILLION. IT MAKES NO SENSE TO ME FROM A FUNDAMENTALS PERSPECTIVE. I THINK THIS IS TECHNICAL. I THINK IT IS POSITIONING-ORIENTED. I THINK THERE IS ALSO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND OPA CITY -- OPACITY IN THE MARKET IS TRYING TO GET A READ ON THAT. DAVID: A WASHOUT LIKE TODAY, TECHNICAL TO YOUR POINT, COULD LAST A DAY OR SEVERAL DAYS. WHAT WOULD BE THE SIGNS THAT YOU WOULD WATCH IF IT IS TIME TO BUY THIS DIP? OR IS THIS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY? JOHN: I THINK WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT WAS A FORM OF POLICY INTERVENTION, POSSIBLY MISINTERPRETATION AROUND POLICY INTERVENTION. BUT IF THE DEMS WERE TO FOLLOW UP WITH CLEAR GUIDELINES AND A ROADMAP AS TO HOW THEY WILL CONSTRAIN THE ROLLOUT OF AI AND DATA CENTERS, THEN CLEARLY WE ARE IN FOR A TIME OF EXTRAORDINARY VOLATILITY AND A D RATING OF AI EQUITIES. BUT IF THE OPPOSITE WERE TO HAPPEN, I THINK WE WOULD SEE SOMETHING OF A BOUNCE NEXT WEEK. AND SHE WOULD GET THE BOTTOM FOR COME AGAIN, PICKING UP -- BOTTOM FISHING COMING IN, PICKING UP NAMES THEY HAVE BEEN WAITING TO CORRECT 10%, 15%. YVONNE: WHERE WOULD YOU BE LOOKING FOR THOSE DIPS? JOHN: I THINK I WOULD BE LOOKING OUTSIDE THE EXCLUSIVE AI STORY. I WOULD BE LOOKING AT MORE NAMES AND SECTORS WHICH APPLY AI. WE ARE OVER WITH THE ENERGY SECTOR, WHICH CLEARLY IS A MAJOR BENEFICIARY OF AI, BUT ALSO UTILITIES FINANCIALS, MATERIALS. THESE ARE SECTORS THAT WE THINK YOU MIGHT CALL A SECOND ORDER DERIVATIVE BENEFICIARIES RATHER THAN FIRST ORDER. AS THE AI ROLLOUT BROADENS AND DEEPENS FROM A BENEFICIARY PERSPECTIVE, THESE ARE THE SECTORS WE THINK WILL DO WELL. DAVID: THE ASIA-PACIFIC, ANY SPECIFICS THERE? I KNOW YOU MENTIONED ENERGY. THE PROXY OR THE NON-PROXIES OF THE AI STORY? JOHN: FIRST OF ALL I FIRMLY BELIEVE THERE IS A BIPARTISAN VIEW IN THE UNITED STATES THAT WANTS TO CONTINUE THIS GEOPOLITICAL CONTAINMENT WITH CHINA. I DON'T THINK THAT THE DEMOCRATS WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE U.S.'S AI CAPABILITIES DIMINISHED IN THE FACE OF A RESURGENT CHINA. SO IN MY MIND THAT ADDS FURTHER WEIGHT TO THIS IDEA THAT WE ARE POSITIONING MORE TECHNICALLY-ORIENTED THAN FUNDAMENTALLY POLICY-DRIVEN. SO I THINK WE GET MORE OF THE SAME. THE BIGGER OBSERVATION I WOULD MAKE, DAVID, HIS BOND YIELDS HAVE REALLY IMPROVED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF LAST MONTH. THEY ARE DOWN ALMOST 50 BASIS POINTS. EASIER MONETARY CONDITIONS TEND TO BE POSITIVE FOR ASIA. YOU COULD ALSO ARGUE U.S. EXCEPTIONALISM NOW IS TAKING A BIT OF A REPRICING, CLEARLY, AND THAT TENDS ALSO TO BE POSITIVE FOR ASIA AS WELL BECAUSE YOU GET MORE LIQUIDITY FLOWING IN. Q3 EARNINGS IN THE U.S., WHAT ARE THEY, RUNNING 30% FOR THE THIRD CAN QUARTER OF AROUND 30%? ASIA CAN COMPETE WITH THAT ACROSS THE BROAD REGION. ANYTHING WHICH DIMINISHES THE U.S. EXCEPTION LIST STORY I THINK IS PROBABLY POSITIVE FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD. YVONNE: JOHN WOODS, WE WILL HAVE MUCH MORE, HEAD OF INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS AT LOMBARD. HE IS STAYING WITH US. WE ARE CHECKING THE TAIEX. IT IS NOT LOOKING PRETTY. THOUSAND STOCKS DROPPING ON THE TAIEX RIGHT NOW, CLOSE TO 10 PERCENT LOSSES WHEN IT COMES TO MEDIATECH, TSMC REALLY DRAGGING DOWN THIS INDEX. FALLING QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY. CONTINUE TO SEE THE SAME SORT OF PRESSURES THAT KOREA IS FACING. DAVID: IT IS SHOCKING BUT NOT REALLY SURPRISING GIVEN TO WHAT -- GIVEN WHAT WE WOKE UP TO FROM WALL STREET. AS WE GO INTO THE CHINESE SESSION TODAY, COMING UP ON THE SCREEN, FUTURE SHOULD BE POINTING TO LOSSES, NOT TO THE EXTENT ACROSS THE ASIA-PACIFIC. LAST WE CHECKED WE WERE DOWN ABOUT 1.5%, 2% ON THE TECH SELLOFF. TURNOVER ON SHORE PICKED UP NORTH OF 2 TRILLION, MASSIVE NET OUTFLOWS. 2% TO THE DOWNSIDE. AND THE CG BE SALES, WE HAVE NOT TALKED ABOUT THIS -- CGB SALE. LOTS MORE AHEAD. THIS IS \"THE CHINA SHOW.\" ♪ DAVID: OKAY. YEAH, NOT GOOD. SHOULD BE SESSION LOWS 15 MINUTES TO THE OPENING BELL. WE ARE AT A RECORD LOW, IN CASE THAT NUMBER LOOKS UNFAMILIAR AT 158 ON THE CHINESE 10 YEAR YIELD. THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FLIGHT BACK INTO FIXED INCOME AMIDST THIS ROUT IN REGIONAL TECH NAMES. ANTHONY IS HERE TO RUN US THROUGH WHAT HE IS WATCHING AS WE GO INTO THE OPEN. ANTHONY: IT IS INCREDIBLE THE DAMAGE ACROSS THE TECH SPACE. HIT HARD ON SIGNS OF HEDGE FUNDS SHUTTING DOWN TECH ACROSS THE BOARD. WE SEE THAT IN THE U.S. WE SAW SOME FUNKY MOVES ON THE NASDAQ OPEN, AND NOW IN JAPAN. THERE'S A LOT OF MESSY PRICE ACTION. SIMILAR IN KOREA, WE WERE EXTRAORDINARY. IT DOES APPEAR THE KOREAN RETAIL HAS LIMITED POCKETS AND THEY ARE BUYING THE DIP. LET'S SEE A MUCH FIREPOWER THEY HAVE. THE TAIWANESE RETAIL HAS BEEN SITTING ON GAINS ALL THE WAY AS IT WAS ASIA'S BEST MARKET, BUT NOW THE HIGH RETAIL LEVERAGE IS GETTING TESTED, TAIWAN OPENED DOWN ACROSS THE BOARD. WE ARE SOME BUYING ON THE DIP IN TAIWAN, ESPECIALLY IN TSMC. WE SAW THE PREMIUM IN AREAS COLLAPSE, A SIGNED THE U.S. RETAILER GAVE UP ON THE TAIWAN MARKET. THERE IS A POCKET OF OPTIMISM THAT SPEAKS TO THE HONG KONG CHINA OPEN IN THE CONSUMER SPACE. YOU SEE SONY STANDING OUT AFTER GOOD EARNINGS. WE SAW A EARNINGS FROM TAPESTRY, RALPH LAUREN LEANING IN CHINA AND THE LIKE. THAT CONTINUES TO BE A THEME OF TECH. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH CHINESE INTERNET AND PARTICULAR HEADING INTO THE SINGLES HOLIDAY. YVONNE: OUR MARKETS REPORTER ANTHONY STEPHENS. INVESTORS ALSO LOOKING FOR SOME BARGAINS. LET'S TALK MORE ABOUT THE POLITICS POSTMAN TERMS. U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO TONIGHT HE'S CONSIDERING LEAVING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AFTER THE STATE DEPARTMENT CALLED A BLOOMBERG REPORT FAKENESS. SOURCES TOLD RUBIO WAS CONSIDERING HIS NEXT MOVES FOLLOWING THE REPUBLICAN'S MIDTERM ELECTION LOSS. DAVID: OUR NEWS DESK AND -- DESK MANAGING EDITOR JILL DISIS JOINS US. CHANGES ARE COMING, OR ARE THEY NOT COMING? WHERE ARE WE ON THOSE TWO STORIES? JILL: YOU HAVE TO PUT OUT THAT RUBIO HAS DENIED THIS REPORT, HE SAID HE'S NOT THINKING OF LEAVING. WE GOT THIS STATEMENT FROM THE WHITE HOUSE: THIS FAKE NEWS -- CALLING THIS FAKE NEWS, BUT YOU HAVE TO STEP BACK. SOURCES TELL US RUBIO IS MULI LING HIS NEXT MOVE. WHEN YOU'RE DEALING WITH A GENERATIONAL WIPEOUT OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, EVEN IN A LESS NIGHTMARE SCENARIO FOR THE PARTY THAT LOSES, YOU MIGHT BE LOOKING AT STAFFERS, SOME OF THESE CABINET MEMBERS OF ANY ADMINISTRATION THAT WOULD MAYBE BE LOOKING FOR THEIR NEXT MOVE IF THE ADMINISTRATION IS GOING TO ENTER A LAME-DUCK SESSION, AS TRUMP'S IS. THERE'S A COUPLE OTHER CONSIDERATIONS FOR RUBIO AS WELL. HE'S BEING FLOATED AS A POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT IN THE 2028 CYCLE. HE SEEMS TO HAVE MANAGED TO SEPARATE HIMSELF EVEN AS SECRETARY OF STATE FROM THE BIGGER BLUNDERS THAT BESET THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION THIS YEAR, PARTICULARLY THE IRAN WAR. HE WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN THE OUSTER OF NICOLAS MADURO IN VENEZUELA THIS YEAR. THAT WAS SEEN AS A MORE ADMINISTRATION. SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR RUBIO. HEARING DENIALS FROM THE RUBIO CAMP RIGHT NOW. I WOULD SAY IF YOU ARE RUBIO AND LOOKING TO MAKE AN EXIT AND YOU WANT TO PRESERVE THE ABILITY FOR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO APPOINT A SECRETARY OF STATE BEFORE DEMOCRATS ULTIMATELY TAKE CONTROL OF BOTH CHAMBERS OF CONGRESS IN JANUARY, YOU PROBABLY WANT TO BE MAKING THAT DECISION FAIRLY QUICKLY. YVONNE: WHAT ABOUT FOR PETE HEGSETH? THERE IS TALKS THERE MIGHT BE AN IMPEACHMENT VOTE COMING. JILL: THAT IS RIGHT. YOU HAVE SEEN THE FALLOUT FROM THIS REPUBLICAN ROUT IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. A LOT OF THAT HAS CENTERED AROUND THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION 'S HANDLING OF THE IRAN WAR. FOR PETE HEGSETH, AS A DEFENSE SECRETARY THAT IS A MORE DIFFICULT THING FOR HIM TO DIVORCE HIMSELF FROM. YOU ARE SEEING SOME CASTING BLAME THERE, SOME SPECULATION ABOUT HOW SAFE HIS JOB ULTIMATELY IS. YOU HAVE AT LEAST ONE REPUBLICAN, THOMAS MASSIE, WHO SUGGESTED HE WOULD HAVE IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS AGAINST PETE HEGSETH IN THE COMING WEEKS. CERTAINLY SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER PETE HEGSETH'S JOB IS ON THE LINE. IF YOU ARE THE DEFENSE SECRETARY, CLOSELY TIED TO THE WAR IN IRAN THAT MANY HAVE POINTED AS SOMETHING THE AMERICAN PUBLIC HAS BEEN QUITE TO SATISFIED WITH, VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE EVEN CITED THAT IN AN X POST, TALKING ABOUT REASONS WHY VOTERS TURNED AGAINST REPUBLICANS IN THESE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. THAT IS ONE TO WATCH AND THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. WE WILL SEE IF THOMAS MASSIE INVOKES THESE IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS. YOU MIGHT SEE SOME REPUBLICANS ACROSS PARTY LINES TO JOIN DEMOCRATS IN PURSUING THAT. AT THIS POINT LARGELY SOME SPECULATION. IT DOES SEEM LIKE THERE IS MORE CONVERGING AROUND THIS IDEA OF TROUBLE AHEAD FOR PETE HEGSETH. DAVID: JILL, THANK YOU. OUR NEWS DESK MANAGING EDITOR FOR THE ASIA PACIFIC. IT IS JUST 9:21 IN THE MORNING IN HONG KONG, WHICH SHOULD BE THE TIME WE ARE GETTING THE PREMARKET SPIRIT A 50 FUTURES DOWN 2.4%. HANG SENG INDEX REALLY GOINGS OFF BY 1.6%. SOME OF THE NAMES THAT ARE STANDING OUT IN THE EARLY GOINGS, LENOVO IS DOWN 10%. YOUR USUAL TECH NAMES. THE BIG WINNERS ARE BEING SOLD EFFECTIVELY. A CLOSER LOOK UNDERNEATH THE HOOD IN A MOMENT. THE OPENING BELL EIGHT MINUTES AWAY. THIS IS \"THE CHINA SHOW.\" ♪ YVONNE: WE ARE TRACKING TAIWAN THIS MORNING. WE ARE HEARING A STATEMENT FROM THE GOVERNMENT THAT THEY WANT TO AT LEAST TAKE MEASURES FLEXIBLY TO STABILIZE THIS MARKET. THE TAIEX DOWN CLOSE TO 9%. THE LIKES OF TSMC AND THE BIG ONES DRAGGING THINGS LOWER THIS MORNING. DAVID: HANG SENG INDEX SHOULD BE DOWN 1.6%. A 50 FUTURES ARE INDICATING MAY BE AN UNDERPERFORMANCE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE A SHARE MARKET. WE ARE DOWN 3%, WHICH IS NOT TOO SURPRISING. YOU HAVE LENOVO. LOOKING AT THE LOSSES ON THE A50 CONTRACT, WE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WIPEOUT GAINS ON THE CSCI. COMING INTO THIS MORNING WE WERE STILL UP FOR THE WEEK. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF WE END LOWER WEEK NUMBER 13. HOW DO YOU THINK THIS CHINESE MARKET OPENS UP TODAY? ASKING MAY BE THE OBVIOUS. >> IT WILL OPEN DOWN, BUT I DOUBT IT WILL OPEN AS DOWN AS TIME ON AND SOUTH KOREA. -- AS TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA. CHINA IS MORE INSULATED FROM THE VULNERABILITIES OF GLOBAL MARKETS. I THINK FOR THAT REASON THE DAMAGE WILL BE MODERATE. CHINA HAS ITS OWN SET OF CHALLENGES AS FAR AS EQUITY MARKETS ARE CONCERNED. WE HAD THIS EXTRAORDINARY SELLOFF OVER THE LAST TWO OR THREE MONTHS OR SO. I THINK THAT IS THE REAL CHALLENGE CHINA IS GRAPPLING WITH RIGHT NOW. MY SENSE IS THAT THE VOLATILITY IN THE AI SPACE IN THE UNITED STATES IS POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE CONSTRUCTIVE FOR CHINA AND THEN YOU MIGHT THINK INITIALLY. THERE IS A DEGREE OF COMPETITION BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. ANYTHING WHICH ESSENTIALLY BETTER POSITIONS CHINA'S AI IF STRUCTURE OR NARRATIVE VERSUS THE UNITED STATES WILL PROBABLY BE VIEWED POSITIVELY BY LOCAL INVESTORS. YVONNE: HEAD OF INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS. WE ARE CHECKING MAINLAND MARKETS. HANG SENG AND NOT TAKING IT AS PAINFULLY AS THE REST OF THE REGION. YOU ARE SEEING THAT GAUGE LOWER BY 1.5%. ON SHORE MARKETS TAKING IT ON THE CHIN. CHINEX IS DOWN 5. SO IS THE STAR 50. WE HAVE THE OPEN COMING UP NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ DAVID: JUST A FURTHER UPDATE OF THESE MARKETS AS WE GO INTO THE OPEN. THE JAPANESE FIVE YEAR BOND DR -- YEAR BOND IS DOWN FIVE BASIS POINTS. ADDING TOO MANY SIGNS IN THE BOND MARKETS THAT THIS SEEMS TO BE THE PORT IN THE CURRENT STORM. THE CHINESE 10 YEAR HITTING THE RECORD LOW ABOUT HALF AN HOUR AGO. YVONNE: THAT POTENTIALLY IS A PLACE TO HIDE ACROSS A SEA OF RED ACROSS THE EQUITY REGION. TAIWAN AND JAPAN SETS TO ENTER INTO BEAR MARKETS. THERE'S A BIT OF PANIC SELLING WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE NORTH ASIA SIDE OF THINGS. GREATER CHINA IS A BIT MORE NUANCED WHEN YOU LOOK AT ONSHORE VERSUS OFFSHORE. A JUST TECH SEEING MASSIVE LOSSES TO THE DOWNSIDE. THREE PERCENT. LOWER ON THAT GAUGE ON SHORE MARKETS. THE WHOLE AI TRADE SEEMS TO BE DERAILED. CHINEX DOWN FOUR OR 5%. STAR 50 DOWN SOME 5%. WE ARE SET TO END THE WEEK WITH A 13TH STRAIGHT WEEK OF LOSSES. THAT IS ONE THING TO WATCH, THAT UNLUCKY 13 FOR THE CSI 300. HONG KONG LOOKING LIKE THIS, AROUND THE 24,000 FOR THE HANG SENG. WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN STAY THERE FOR HSTECH FOR THE REST OF THE SESSION. THAT IS ONE THING TO WATCH CLOSELY. THE CHIP SIDE OF THINGS, WORST DAY SINCE THE ONSET OF COVID WHEN IT CAME TO THE SEMI CONDUCTOR TRADE IN THE U.S.. THEY ARE FALLING IN FASHION. CXMT FALLING SOME 6% OR MORE. THE AI STOCKS, THE BIG TECH ARE DOING THIS. DAVE WAS TALKING ABOUT LENOVO WHEN IT CAME TO THE BIGGEST LOSERS ON THE BOARD. IT IS THE PEER PLAYS TAKING THE WORST -- PURE PLAYS TAKING IT THE WORST. ALIBABA AND TENCENT SEEING SOME BIG MOVES TO THE DOWNSIDE. OPTICAL STOCKS CONTINUES TO BE ONE WITH A LITTLE VOLATILITY AROUND TRADE. DOUBLE-DIGIT LOSSES THIS MORNING. DAVID: FOR SOME FINAL THOUGHTS, WITH US ONSET IS JOHN WOODS. WE WERE TALKING ABOUT HOW THE MOST RECENT PULLBACKS IN THE MARKETS MORE QUICKLY FILLED. I'M LOOKING AT THIS NASDAQ INDEX. THIS LIBERATION DAY, 23%. IRAN WAR, 12%. WE HAD ANOTHER 11% DROP IN JULY. RED OCTOBER WAS ABOUT 15%. PEOPLE BUY INTO THESE DIPS FAIRLY QUICKLY. TIME? JOHN: IF THEIR EARNINGS ARE REPRICED LOWER, THEY WILL NOT BUY IN. IF THE VALUATIONS ARE CONSIDERED EXTREMELY STRETCHED, I SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN. OF COURSE WE ARE NOT SEEING THAT. WE ARE SEEING ANALYSTS UPGRADE EARNINGS. ATTEND TO LOOK AT THE RATE OF CHANGE OF ANALYST REVISIONS, AND EVEN THAT IS TICKING HIGHER. THE EARNINGS STORY I THINK IS A SUPPORTIVE AND THIS WILL ATTRACT INVESTORS SEEKING TO BUY THOSE NAMES THAT THEY HAVE LONG BEEN LOOKING AT AND HOPING THEY WILL COME OFF 5% OR 15%. THOSE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES THEY HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR AND I SUSPECT THEY WILL BE LOOKING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT. DAVID: PEOPLE TALK ABOUT THE TECH A TRADE BEING PRICED TO PERFECTION. SOME POLICY FRICTION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME OF THOSE EARNINGS GETTING DOWNGRADED BECAUSE THESE UPGRADES WERE COMING UP AGAINST THIS AND WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REACTION FROM THE MARKET POST THEM IN TERMS. HOW ARE WE LOOKING AT WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE? JOHN: WE ARE LOOKING AT THE DIVIDED GOVERNMENT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE MIDTERM REASONABLY POSITIVELY. WE THINK POLICY GRIDLOCK IS PROBABLY SUPPORTIVE FOR CONSISTENT POLICYMAKING, A DEGREE OF CERTAINTY AROUND FISCAL ACTIVISM. THIS IDEA THAT A REDUCTION IN UNTRAMMELED SPENDING IS POSITIVE FOR THE BOND MARKET. I WOULD POINT TO THE BOND MARKET. THE BEGINNING OF LAST MONTH, YIELDS WERE SOME 50 BASIS POINTS HIGHER THAN THEY ARE NOW. THAT IS THE BOND MARKET TELLING US THAT FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ARE EASING SOMEWHAT. I DON'T THINK THERE IS ANY RECESSION BEING PRICED IN, BUT A MORE BENIGN OPERATING OUTLOOK IS LIKELY. INFLATIONARY PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT . MAYBE AFTER THIS ONE AND DONE HIKE BY THE FED, AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF PAUSE. THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTAL STORY I THINK IS REASONABLY CONSTRUCTIVE. TO YOUR QUESTION, IT IS THAT BACKDROP THAT DOES ENCOURAGE BOTTOM FISHING. YVONNE: YOU SAY IT COULD BE A GOOD BACKDROP FOR STOCKS AND BONDS. WHERE IS THAT PLACE TO LOOK FOR PROTECTION? JOHN: WELL, APART FROM SWITZERLAND? [LAUGHTER] AS A GENERAL RULE. THE CHINA STORY I THINK IS VERY INTERESTING. YOU MENTIONED A COUPLE TIMES THE RECORD LOW ON THE 10 YEAR IN CHINA. INCREASINGLY THE INCOME CHINA THEMATIC IS BECOMING INTERESTING. IF YOU CAN BUY THE DIVIDEND STOCKS OF THE BANKS OR ENERGY SECTOR, YOU ARE GETTING BETWEEN 6% AND 8%, THREE TIMES MORE THAN THE BOND MARKET IS PAYING YOU, YOU WILL START TO SEE MORE INTEREST IN THAT TYPE OF STRATEGY, PARTICULARLY IF LIQUIDITY STARTS LOOKING FOR GROWTH AND EARNINGS OUTSIDE THE U.S. EXCEPTIONAL STORY. I LIKE THE IDEA OF PRODUCTIVITY CHINA, WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY TRYING TO NAVIGATE THAT CHALLENGE OF A BALANCE SHEET RECESSION. WHICH SECTORS DO WELL WHEN THE DEMOGRAPHICS AND DELEVERAGING PLAY THROUGH? THERE IS GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIC CHINA WHICH IS A SELF-SUFFICIENCY STORY BUILT AROUND TECH. THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES FOR INVESTORS IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD TO LEVERAGE AND PLAY ON SOME OF THESE DYNAMICS BOTH IN CHINA, AND BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA AS WELL. YVONNE: JOHN WOODS, HEAD OF INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS AT LOMBARD ODEON. SPEAKING OF POLITICS, THIS HAS BEEN QUITE INTERESTING. THERE IS THIS WHOLE ISSUE WHEN IT COMES TO SOFTBANK AND CHINA. CHINA HAS BLOCKED THE COMPANY'S PURCHASE OF THE ROBOTICS ARM OF SWISS SWEDISH CONGLOMERATE ABB, DEALING A SIGNIFICANT BLOW TO THE AI BUILDOUT AMBITIONS. DAVID: LET'S BRING IN STEPHEN ENGLE WHO HAS THE DETAILS FOR US. WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THIS LATEST RESTRICTION? STEPHEN: IT IS AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS A UNIT OF THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT REFORM COMMISSION WE ARE HEARING HAS ESSENTIALLY BLOCKED THIS. ABB ROBOTICS, CHINA IS ITS SINGLE LARGEST MARKET. ALSO THEY HAVE DEALS WITH THE SHANGHAI GOVERNMENT TO BUILD OUT BIG DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES. ABB ROBOTICS VERY MUCH TIED TO CHINA AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AI AND ROBOTICS AND THE LIKE. THOSE CHINESE FACTORIES ACROSS THE COUNTRY HAVE THE ROBOTIC ARMS OF ABB ROBOTICS,, PSAKI HEAVY -- KAWASAKI HEAVY AND THE LIKE. THIS INDICATES A RENEWAL BY BEIJING TO CLAMP DOWN AND PROTECT ITS OWN IP AND ITS OWN DATA BY PREVENTING THE SALE, THIS $4.5 BILLION SALE OF ABB ROBOTICS WHICH WAS DUE TO BE COMPLETED AT THE END OF THIS YEAR TO SOFTBANK. IT'S SORT OF AN ASIDE, A JAPANESE COMPANY. I AM NOT NECESSARILY GETTING INTO THAT SIDE OF THE STORY YET. BUT IT ALSO IS IN LOCKSTEP WITH WHAT THE NDRC HAS A READY DONE, BLOCKING THE $2 BILLION ACQUISITION OF META BUYING AN AI START UP. THERE IS A LOT OF GEOPOLITICS AND PROTECTION OF THE AI TRADE. FOR MASAYOSHI SON, HE IS LISTED ABB ROBOTICS AS ONE OF HIS KEY OBJECTIVES TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT, REVENUE-GENERATING PLAY IN PHYSICAL AI BEYOND HIS $65 BILLION BET ON OPENAI AND THE HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOFTBANK PLEDGED IN THE BUILDOUT OF DATA CENTERS AROUND THE WORLD. IT IS A SIGNIFICANT BLOW IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. YVONNE: ANOTHER TECH STORY EMERGING IS MICRON'S COMMITMENT TO TAIWAN. STEPHEN: THIS IS ANOTHER INTERESTING STORY AT A TIME WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE REPRICING OF THE AI TRADE. WE KNOW THERE IS MEMORY SHORTAGES. THEY ARE BUILDING OUT MORE FACTORIES, MICRON IS. THEY ARE THE SINGLE LARGEST FOREIGN INVESTOR IN TAIWAN. THEY INVESTED NEARLY 50 BILLION U.S. DOLLARS OVER THREE DECADES AND ARE BUILDING A NEW PLANT THAT WAS GOING TO BE CUTTING EDGE. IT WILL MAKE BY HIGH WITH -- IT WAS GOING TO MAKE HIGH-BANDWIDTH THERE HAVE BEEN LABOR DISPUTES. THE WORKERS IN TAIWAN WANT MORE AND DIVIDENDS OF THE RECORD PROFITS MICRON AND OTHERS HAVE MADE. THERE WAS A DEAL REACHED IN OCTOBER BETWEEN ONE OF THE TWO LABOR UNIONS, HOWEVER WE ARE HEARING FROM SOURCES A NUMBER OF THE WORKERS ARE BALKING AT ACCEPTING THE TERMS OF THE DEAL. WHAT WE ARE HEARING FROM SOURCES IS MICRON FOR FEAR OF GOING INTO A RENEGOTIATION PERIOD, THEY HAVE PUT THE BRAKES ON THIS BIG PLANT, WHICH WOULD OF COURSE ALTER THE LANDSCAPE AS FAR AS THE NEED FOR THESE CHIPS IN THE AI BUILDOUT. I THINK THIS IS A DEVELOPING STORY. I THINK THERE WILL BE NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUING. RIGHT NOW WE ARE HEARING IT IS PAUSED. DAVID: THANK YOU FOR GETTING US UP TO SPEED, STEPHEN ENGLE, OUR CHIEF NORTH ASIA CORRESPONDENT. COMING UP, ONE OUTLIER. THE POOLING LUXURY TREND IN CHINA IS COACH. THE OWNER WILL BE SPEAKING WITH THE CHINA PRESIDENT OF COACH ABOUT THE BRAND. THIS IS \"THE CHINA SHOW.\" ♪ DAVID: JUST AN UPDATE AMIDST THIS SELLOFF, STATING IT EXTREMELY LIGHTLY. BUT WE ARE DOING BETTER COMPARED TO THE START OF THE SESSION AND THE REST OF THE REGION AS FAR AS CHINA GOES, DOWN JUST 2%. THE CHINEX INDEX, PERHAPS THE MOST CLOSELY CORRELATED TO THE U.S. MARKET, IS STILL OFF. YOU WERE LOOKING AT LOSSES AMIDST WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON. YVONNE: IN CHINA I THINK THE CONSUMER NAMES ARE CATCHING A BID AGAINST THIS SEA OF RED ACROSS THE TECH SPACE. SOME OF THE EARNINGS WHEN IT COMES TO THESE CONSUMPTION NAMES, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT TAPESTRY, THE BIG GROUP THAT MANAGES BRANDS LIKE RALPH LAUREN, COACH AND LIKE. THE GUIDANCE WAS BOOSTED, REVENUE WAS A BEAT. NORTH AMERICA THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT SINGLE-DIGIT GROWTH, BUT IN CHINA THEY DEFIED IN SOME WAYS THIS SELECTION RACE -- THIS LUXURY SLOW DOWN. CERTAINLY THAT IS ONE THING TO WATCH. EARLIER WE DID SPEAK WITH THE TAPESTRY CEO ABOUT THE STATE OF THEIR BUSINESS IN CHINA. >> IN CHINA, WE GET TO KNOW THESE YOUNG CONSUMERS AT A DEEPER LEVEL. OUR TEAMS ARE TRANSLATING OUR VALUE PROPOSITION IN A VERY AUTHENTIC AND CREDIBLE WAY THAT RESONATES WITH THE LOCAL CONSUMER ON THE GROUND. I WAS IN CHANGE IN A FEW WEEKS AGO -- SHENZHEN AT OUR NEW PLACE STORE. THIS IS A PLACE WHERE THE YOUNG CONSUMER IS RESPONDING AND THEY GRAVITATE AND THEY LOVE THE COMMUNITY FEEL OF THOSE STORES IN THE WAY THEY CAN ENGAGE WITH ASSOCIATES. IT IS HELPING US WIN AND ATTRACT MORE CUSTOMERS NOT ONLY TO OUR BRANDS, BUT INTO THE CATEGORY. DAVID: LET'S BRING IN MINMIN LOW, OUR NORTH ASIA CORRESPONDENT. SHE'S IN SHANGHAI FOR CIIE AND IS WITH A GUEST THAT CAN MAY BE TELL US MORE ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE DOING RIGHT AMIDST THE BROADER HEADWINDS. MINMIN: WE ACTUALLY HAVE THE PERFECT GUESTS TO JOIN US TO DIGEST THOSE EARNINGS FROM TAPESTRY. JOINING ME IS THE COACH CHINA PRESIDENT. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. WE HAVE A VERY STRONG PERFORMANCE IN THE LAST ORDER. 40% GAIN YEAR ON YEAR FOR A GREATER CHINA SALES. AT A TIME WHEN YOU SEE DOUBLE-DIGIT DECLINES. HOW ARE YOU OUTPERFORMING THE MARKET? >> FIRST OF ALL, WE ARE SO EXCITED ABOUT OUR EARNINGS CALL LAST NIGHT. GREATER CHINA GREW CLOSE TO 40%. THE FOCUS FOR US IS BRINGING A N EW CONSUMER TO THE BRAND. AT A POINT WHERE THE MARKET HAS HEADWINDS, BECAUSE WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THAT, OUR FOCUS HAS BEEN ON BRINGING MORE CONSUMERS INTO THE BANK. IT IS NOT ABOUT NECESSARILY TAKING MARKET SHARE FROM COMPETITORS, BUT MAKING SURE WE ARE DOING THE RIGHT THING FOR THIS ANGER CONSUMER THAT WE WANT TO ATTRACT TO COACH. THIS IS GROWING THE CATEGORY OF HANDBAGS. YESTERDAY DURING OUR EARNING WE COMMUNICATED WE BROUGHT GLOBALLY TO .6 MILLION NEW CUSTOMERS INTO OUR BRANDS. THAT I THINK IS THE POWER AND REALLY THE SUCCESS BEHIND OUR STRATEGY. MINMIN: YOU HAVE BEEN TOUTING A LOT OF ENTRY-LEVEL CUSTOMERS AND GEN Z BUYERS. HOW ARE YOU MARKETING YOUR SHOPPING EXPERIENCE? WHAT MAKES THEM COME INTO YOUR STORE TO BUY SOMETHING? WHAT MAKES REPEAT PURCHASES IN COACH? LILIANA: THE CHINESE CONSUMER TODAY IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM HOW WE BEHAVED IN THE PAST. THEY ARE MORE DISCERNING. THEY REMAIN VERY CURIOUS AND SOPHISTICATED ABOUT UNDERSTANDING TRENDS. BUT THEY ALSO HAVE SHIFTED THEIR APPROACHES AND BEHAVIOR. FOR US, WE WANT TO TARGET THIS YOUNGER CONSUMER. WE SAY WE WANT TO BE THEIR FIRST BRAND OF CHOICE WHEN IT COMES TO BUYING HANDBAGS. WHAT IS IMPORTANT FOR US IS DEEPENING OUR UNDERSTANDING ON WHAT THEY NEED. WE KNOW THAT NOWADAYS THE YOUNGER CONSUMER IS LOOKING BEYOND FUNCTIONALITY, IS LOOKING FOR VALUE, IS LOOKING FOR CRAFTSMANSHIP, AND IS LOOKING FOR MEANING. FOR US, UNDERSTANDING WHAT THEY ARE GOING AFTER, SO GETTING INSIGHT ENABLES US TO DEEPEN OUR CONNECTION AND BRING A BETTER PRODUCT. WE ARE SELLING HANDBAGS. YOU SEE BEHIND ME OUR MOST ICONIC BAG. WE CONTINUE TO BRING INNOVATION IN OUR PRODUCT CREATION. SPECIFICALLY IN CHINA WE FOCUS ON OUR RETAIL EXPERIENCE, WHETHER IT IS OFF-LINE IN OUR STORE AS WELL AS ONLINE IN OUR DIGITAL ECOSYSTEM. MINMIN: HOW DO YOU COMPETE WITH CHINESE BRANDS THAT UNDERSTAND CUSTOMERS WELL AND ARE MAKING INCREASINGLY SOPHISTICATED HANDBAGS? LILIANA: I DON'T LIKE TO TALK ABOUT COMPETITION BECAUSE THE HEADROOM IN CHINA IS STILL MASSIVE. OUT OF THOSE YOUNGER CONSUMERS WE JUST MENTIONED, WE KNOW THAT EVERY YEAR THERE ARE 5 MILLION YOUNGER PEOPLE THAT REACH AGE 18. IN THIS COHORT ARE A IS BELOW 1%. -- OUR PENETRATION IS BELOW 1%. THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE BRANDS TO WIN. IT IS NOT NECESSARILY ABOUT MARKET SHARE, IT IS ABOUT HOW WE TOGETHER GROW THE MARKET AND CATEGORY. I AM ABSOLUTELY INSPIRED BY WHAT LOCAL CHINESE BRANDS ARE DOING IN CHINA. I AM ACTUALLY CHEERING ON FOR THEM BECAUSE IT IS INCREDIBLE TO SEE SO MUCH STRENGTH FROM LOCAL BRANDS. IT IS LESS OF A CHALLENGE AND MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR US, FOR COACH, FOR TAPESTRY ON HOW WE REMAIN RELEVANT AND HOW WE CONTINUE TO DO WHAT WE ARE DOING WELL EVEN BETTER. MINMIN: YOU HAVE BEEN PUSHING AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE THIRD PARTIES WHERE DISPOSABLE INCOME IS NOT AS HIGH AS IN THE COASTAL CITIES. HOW SUCCESSFUL HAS THAT STRATEGY BEEN, PUSHING INTO LESS DEVELOPED AREAS OF CHINA? LILIANA: AS WE COMMUNICATED DURING OUR INVESTOR DAY, OUR AMBITION WAS TO OPEN 100 MORE STORES IN CHINA. WE HAVE ACTUALLY OPENED EVEN MORE. WE HAVE BEEN GOING TO TIER 3 AND TIER 4 CITIES. AS WE LOOK AHEAD AT OUR FUTURE PLAN, WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPLORE NEW WHITE SPACES. WE WILL DO IT MORE INTENTIONALLY. BEING AWARE OF THE YOUNGER COHORT THAT WE WANT TO ATTRACT. IT'S NOT ONLY MORE FOR MORE, JUST A GOING AFTER ORGANIC GROWTH, BUT MAKING SURE EVERY EXPERIENCE IS RELEVANT, AS WELL AS MAKING SURE WE ARE BUILDING A PRODUCT. BY '27, WE ENTERED NEW CITIES. WE OPEN OUR THIRD STAR IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE. SO THERE ARE A LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA. WE DON'T WANT TO GET DESTRUCTIVE. WE WANT TO FOCUS ON WHAT MATTERS THE MOST FOR THE COHORT THEY ARE GOING TO GO AFTER. SO FAR WE HAVE BEEN DOING WELL. HOPEFULLY THE FOCUS ON THE CLARITY AND ON THE STRATEGY WILL ENABLE TO CONTINUE GROWING. MINMIN: THANK YOU SO MUCH. COACH CHINA PRESIDENT. REALLY EXCITING PHASE OF GROWTH IN CHINA, BUILDING ON THE MOMENTUM OF DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS. YVONNE: GREAT INTERVIEW. WE ARE STILL TRACKING THESE MARKETS, THE SELLOFF IN TAIWAN. WE ARE HEARING MORE FROM OFFICIALS THAT ARE NOW URGING STATE BACKED BANKS TO INVEST AT ATTRACTIVE VALUE. ALSO WHEN IT COMES TO THEIR NATIONAL STABILIZATION FUND THEY SAY THEY DO NOT RULE OUT HOLDING A MEETING TODAY TO AT LEAST STABILIZE THESE MARKETS. TAIEX IS DOWN CLOSE TO 7%. MEDIATECH AND HONHAI FALLEN. TAIWAN DOLLAR DID REACH ABOVE THE 33 HANDLE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE APRIL 2025. DAVID: CERTAINLY SPREADING BEYOND THE EQUITY MARKET INTO THE FX AND EQUITY MARKET. SOMETHING WE WILL GET INTO AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND HALF OF \"THE CHINA SHOW.\" LOTS MORE AHEAD. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ DAVID: WELCOME BACK. JUST A DAMAGE REPORT TO TELL YOU WE HAVE EARNINGS COMING THROUGH FROM HKX. THAT IS ENTIRELY NOT GERMANE TO THE TOPIC OF THE DAY, WHICH IS THE ONE YOU SEE ON YOUR SCREEN. I THINK ON PRICE ITSELF IT IS WORTH POINTING OUT IN TAIWAN WE OPENED CLOSER TO 9% DOWN. WE ARE COMING OFF THE LOWS QUICKLY. STILL A TERRIBLE DAY IN THE MARKET. KOREA HAS GONE TO THE CIRCUIT BREAKERS. JAPAN IS SET TO ENTER A BEAR MARKET. I BELIEVE TAIWAN IS ALSO DOWN 20% FROM THE PEAK. HERE IS YOUR SILVER LINING. WE ARE GETTING GAINS IN THE U.S. EQUITY MARKETS. THERE'S A POSSIBILITY WE MIGHT SEE A BETTER FRIDAY THAN WE DID THURSDAY. YVONNE: FUTURES ARE IN THE GREEN IN THE U.S. CYBER IS -- SUBSCRIBERS CAN TUNE INTO THE TERMINAL WITH THE LATEST UPDATES AND COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS FROM OUR EXPERT EDITORS. WE HAVE PLENTY MORE TO COME. THE NEXT HOUR OF \"THE CHINA SHOW \" IS UP NEXT. ♪ >> THE VIOLENCE OF THE SELLOFF LAST NIGHT HAS IMPLICATIONS AND I DON'T THINK THE DEMS REALLY WANT TO HAVE THEIR IMPRINT ON THAT. THE DAY BEFORE YESTERDAY, WE HEADED $1.5 TRILLION TO THE S&P. LAST NIGHT, WE TOOK AWAY $3 TRILLION. IT MAKES NO SENSE TO ME FROM A FUNDAMENTALS PERSPECTIVE. I THINK THIS IS TECHNICAL, POSITIONING ORIENTED AND A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN OK CITY AROUND COMING MONTHS. THE MARKET IS TRYING TO GET A BEAT ON THAT. YVONNE: THAT WAS THE HEAD OF INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS AT -- SPEAKING TO US EARLIER SAYING WAITING FOR. DAVID: WHICH IS THE INTERESTING BIT BECAUSE PEOPLE WERE WAITING FOR ONE AND THEN WHEN IT CAME, PEOPLE ALL ACTED SURPRISED THAT WE ARE SEEING WHAT. -- ONE. IT IS ALSO SOMEWHAT MYSTERIOUS TO ME THAT PEOPLE ARE COMPARING THIS TO THE DROP WE HAD DURING THE PANDEMIC. THERE ARE PARALLELS BUT THE ELEMENT OF GOING INTO THE PANDEMIC IS MUCH WORSE THAN HOW POLICY CAN CHANGE IN THE U.S. IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE HOW THE DEMS ARE GOING TO USE THE ANALOGY, SHUT THE INTERNET OFF, BECAUSE IT IS POLITICALLY HARD TO SELL. I THINK THAT IS A ROUTE THAT JOHN BROUGHT UP, IT IS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BUY THE CHINA AI STORY IF IT IS A FEW DEGREES TRUE. YVONNE: MAYBE THAT MEANS CHINA HAS THE RUNWAY TO CATCH UP. REALLY, TODAY IS THAT ROTATION WE ARE SEEING TO SOME OF THE CONSUMPTION NAMES IN CHINA THAT HAS BEEN RELEVANT. AS YOU'VE BEEN TALKING, WE BOUNCED OFF THE INITIAL LOWS OF THESE BENCHMARKS. KOSPI, TAIEX, NIKKEI AS WELL. IT ALL SEEMS TO BE ENTERING INTO BEAR MARKETS TODAY. DAVID: THAT IS HOW BAD THE START OF FRIDAY WAS. YVONNE: WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT 5% DECLINE SPIRIT DAVID: SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ASIA, JAKARTA COMING ONLINE. ONE HOUR INTO THE SESSION. NOT IS EXPOSED TO THE AI TRADE. YEN IS UP AGAINST EVERYTHING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SWISS FRANC WHICH IS VERY TEXTBOOK RISK AVERSION. TODAY, THE JAPANESE TWO YEAR YIELD, SEEING A BIT OF A DOWNSIDE. DOLLAR CHINA COMING UP ON YOUR SCREENS. CAN WE GET IT UP? 6.6671. WE TALKED ABOUT 2.3 ON THE NASDAQ AND 2.9 ON THE S&P. THE MARKET CAP WIPED OUT ABOUT $4.5 TRILLION. WE FOUND RED OCTOBER AND IT'S WAITING FOR THE SANTA CLAUS DECEMBER RALLY. WE HAVE MANAGED TO HAVE A COLD NOVEMBER RAIN. THAT WAS A ROUT OVER NIGHT BUT FUTURES A SLIGHTLY TO THE UPSIDE. YVONNE: AT LEAST THAT IS THE SILVER LINING TO ALL OF THIS SEA OF RED. LET'S BRING BACK ANTHONY. BRING IS THE LATEST ON THE MARKETS RIGHT NOW. ANTHONY: THERE ARE SOME RELEVANCE -- YOU CAN CONTINUE TO SEE IN THE RISKIEST CORNERS OF THE AI TRADE, PEOPLE ARE NOT DONE CUTTING. WHETHER YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THE OPTICAL SPACE IN CHINA OR CHINA ZONE LLM'S. PEOPLE ARE UNWINDING THE AI BOOK. WE CONTINUE TO SEEM WEAKNESS IN THE MEMORY TRADE. MEMORY TRADE. THE STRUCTURAL DEMAND IS VERY STRONG IN 2026, BUT WHAT DOES 2028 AND 2029 LOOK LIKE? THAT IS CAUSING THIS DOWNTURN AND A LOT OF VOLATILITY. WHO IS THE BENEFICIARY? THAT IS THE CONSUMER SPACE AND THAT HAS BEEN BORNE BY SOME PRETTY DECENT NUMBERS ACROSS THE WORLD. THIS STARTED IN THE U.S. AND YOU SPOKE TO TAPESTRY, RALPH LAUREN WAS QUITE STRONG. ASIA, SOME VERY STRONG NUMBERS, LIFTING THAT SECTOR. IT HAS BEEN A BIG LAGGARD IN HONG KONG. IN AUSTRALIA, A LOT OF RESISTANCE FROM THE DOMESTIC RETAIL SPACE. EVEN IN KOREA, THE BIG STANDUP IS THE DEFENSIVE CIGARETTE SECTOR. MAYBE SOME STRESS SMOKING IN KOREA. THAT IS FLAT AMIDST THE DOWNTURN. WE CAN FINALLY SEE WHAT IS DRIVING THIS DOWNTURN AND THAT IS IN THE CONICAL POP IN VOLATILITY. WHEN VOLATILITY DOES THIS IN JAPAN, KOREA, HONG KONG, YOU DON'T SEE BUYING OPPORTUNITY. YOU SAY LET'S GET OUT OF RISK AND REASSESS WHEN THINGS ARE CALMER. THIS IS THE MECHANICAL FLOW DRIVER OF THE UNWINDING WE ARE SEEING TODAY. DAVID: AS YOU CAN SEE, IT IS STILL PRESSING IT AND PRONOUNCED AS WE GO INTO THE JAPANESE LUNCH BREAK. FANTASTIC LOOK AT OTHER METRICS ARE SEEING. LET'S BRING IN OUR TEAM AND TAKE YOU INTO THE ACTION EVEN FURTHER. DAVID SAVAGE IS WITH US. OUR ASIA CREDIT EDITOR IS ALSO WITH US. DAVID, VOLUMES ARE COMING IN SUBSTANTIALLY. WHAT SPECIFICS ARE YOU LOOKING AT? >> THE SCALE OF THE LOSSES WE ARE SEEING, IT CERTAINLY POINTS TO ACROSS THE BOARD POSITION UNWINDING AND I THINK IT HAS A LOT OF ECHOES TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN PREVIOUS LIQUIDATION EVENTS LIKE WHAT WE SAW WITH THE LOSSES IN SITUATIONAL AWARENESS. I THINK OTHER VEHICLES ARE PLAYING A ROLE. I THINK WE SAW IN JULY IN KOREA HOW LEVERAGED ETF'S CAN ACT AS A REAL ACCELERANT TO THESE TYPES OF SELLOFFS. THE THREE TIMES LEVERAGED STOCKS ETF, IT'S ALL MASSIVE VOLUMES AND IT WAS DOWN 40%, ALMOST 40% ON THE DAY. THESE TYPES OF ETF'S HAVE TO RESET THEIR LEVERAGED DAILY. THAT MEANS THEY ARE SELLING INTO WEAKNESS, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE CLOSE. THESE TYPES OF VEHICLES ARE EXACTLY WHAT IT TAKES TO MOVE FROM OVERSOLD LEVELS TO REAL TECH ROUT. YVONNE: HOLD THAT THOUGHT. WE HAVE SOME LINES CROSSING. I BELIEVE LOCAL MEDIA IS REPORTING IN TAIWAN NOW. THEY ARE SAYING TAIWAN TO UNVEIL A STOCK STABILIZATION ACT THIS AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THERE ARE SOME SOME SIGNS OF THE STABILIZATION FUND STEPPING IN IN SOME WAY. WE'RE WATCHING SOME PARTS OF THE MARKET BOUNCING OFF INCLUDING THE LIKES OF THE TAIEX, THE KOSPI AND THE NIKKEI. NASDAQ FUTURES ARE EXTENDING THAT GAME TO MORE THAN 1%. THERE IS SOME SORT OF SILVER LINING TO ALL THIS NOW. GREEN. HOW DOES THIS SET UP FOR WALL STREET NOW? DAVID S.: WE WILL SEE HOW SOME OF THESE MEASURES AND COMMENTS FROM AUTHORITIES ACROSS MARKETS KIND OF STABILIZE MARKETS IF THEY CAN. I THINK THE TAIWAN LOSSES ARE QUITE CONCERNING FOR THE AI TRADE AND THE U.S. OPEN COMING UP. THIS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MORE STABLE MARKETS PARTICULARLY IN ASIA. IN LARGE PART THAT IS THANKS TO TSMC THAT HAS HELD UP THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS BETTER THAN OTHERS. IT HAS BEEN MORE BROADLY DIVERSIFIED ACROSS THE AI SUPPLY CHAIN. IT HAS REALLY STARTED TO COME OFF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. BUT TAIWAN ETF IN THE U.S. HAD ITS WORST DAY SINCE 2023, VERY LARGE VOLUME. I THINK HOW WE SEE THESE ASIAN BENCHMARKS TRADE INTO THE CLOSE WILL GIVE US AN INDICATION AND WHAT WE SEE IN THE U.S. DAVID I.: FINBAR, THE STRESS THAT STARTED TO SHOW UP EARLY ON IN THE AI TRADE SHOWED UP, I WOULD SAY EVEN EARLIER IN THE CREDIT MARKETS IN THE FORM OF WIDER SPREADS AND NOW WE HAVE THIS EQUITY MARKET CLEANSING THAT WE ARE SEEING. ARE THERE ANY SPECIFICS YOU GUYS ARE TRACKING ON THE CREDIT SPACE TODAY AS PERHAPS HOW THIS IS SHOWING UP EVEN FURTHER IN CREDIT SPREADS? FINBARR: GOOD MORNING. YES, I WOULD AGREE IN TERMS OF THE SPREADS. SPREADS WIDENED ALREADY TO THEIR WHITEST IN 18 MONTHS, 19 MONTHS BEFORE THIS EVENT LAST NIGHT. AND THIS IS A HISTORIC EVENT IN TERMS OF THE STOCK MARKET. STOCKS HAVE GOTTEN WIDER, ESPECIALLY THE JUMP SPREADS, ABOUT DOUBLE DIGIT. FOR THE NAMES WE ARE LOOKING AT, OBVIOUSLY WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON SOFTBANK. IT JUST COMPLETED THE WORLD'S LARGEST JUNK BOND SALE A FEW MONTHS BACK. IT WAS OFF A FEW POINTS IN TERMS OF ITS DEBT LAST NIGHT. IT IS DOWN ANOTHER POINT THIS MORNING. BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING THE TYPES OF MOVES YOU ARE SEEING IN STOCKS. I THINK THAT CREDIT GOT A LITTLE AHEAD OF THIS IN TERMS OF IT UNWOUND SOME OF THOSE EXTREMELY TIGHT MOVES. YVONNE: THIS NARRATIVE THAT THE DEMS, THIS WEEK WE ARE SEEING WILL LEAD TO MORE REGULATION WHEN IT COMES TO DEVELOPMENT OF A I CENTERS AND COULD DERAIL THIS WHOLE AI BOOM -- WHAT ARE THE PEOPLE YOU ARE TALKING TO SEE THIS AND HOW WILL IT IMPACT WHAT IS FUNDING THIS AI BUILDOUT NOW? FINBARR: INDEED. YESTERDAY, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT AN UP MARKET AND NOW WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A DON MARKET AND WE DON'T KNOW WHAT DIRECTION WE WILL SETTLE ON. THE WHOLE NARRATIVE FOR THE ELECTION IN THE STATES FOR THE DEMOCRATS WAS IN LARGE PART, AT LEAST A PART OF IT WAS THIS AI CRACKDOWN IN TERMS OF DATA CENTERS. NOBODY WANTS A DATA CENTER NEXT TO THEM. WE WILL SEE HOW THAT WORKS IN TERMS OF REGULATION. IN ASIA, WE DON'T HAVE A LOT OF DATA CENTER TYPE ISSUANCE, THAT IS BASICALLY THE METAS, THE ALPHABETS, ALL THESE PEOPLE SELLING $25 MILLION IN THE STATES. PEOPLE HAVE TO -- WE WERE ALREADY GETTING NERVOUS AROUND SOME OF THESE DEALS IN TERMS OF WHERE THEY WERE PRICING. I THINK THE SPREADS WENT WIDE ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE ARE STILL, LEVELS. YVONNE: THANK YOU, FINBARR FLYNN . THANK YOU ALSO TO DAVID SAVAGE, JOINING US IN ALL THINGS MARKETS. WE ARE CONTINUING TO WATCH THE BOUNCE BACK WHEN IT COMES TO NASDAQ FUTURES BUT ALSO, THE VIX IS QUITE HIGH. DAVID: INTERESTING THAT YOU BROUGHT UP WHAT DO WE MAKE AND INTERPRET THIS BOUNCE WE ARE SEEING. WE ARE UP 1%. IT DOES NOT SOUND LIKE A LOT GIVEN THE MOVE WE HAD YESTERDAY. IT IS WORTH POINTING OUT IT IS COMING AT A TIME WHEN ASIA IS ADJUSTING TO THE U.S., BUT IT DOESN'T SEEM THE RUNWAY IS CLEARING NOT COMPLETELY, BUT SOMEWHAT. THE VIX FUTURE IS HIGH BUT COMING OFF A LITTLE BIT. JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS WE TRACK ANY SORT OF SILVER LININGS TO GLEAN A MIXED OVERALL SELLOFF. YVONNE: BARCLAYS HAD A LINE ABOUT WHAT HAS BEEN THE BIG DRIVING FORCE OF ALL THE SELLING, WITH ALL THE SYSTEMATIC FUNDS. YOU TALK ABOUT THE SO-CALLED VOL CONTROL FUNDS, THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, ONE HUNDRED $25 BILLION IN TERMS OF U.S. EQUITY FUTURES. THAT IS A HUGE ADJUSTMENT FOR THE MARKET TO DIGEST AND ONE OF THE BIGGEST SWINGS SINCE 2018. THAT IS ONE REASON WHY SOME OF THE MOVES ARE QUITE MAGNIFIED AT THE MOMENT WE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT THAT IN A BIT. COMING UP, WE WILL BE LIVE IN QUEENSTOWN, NEW ZEALAND. HAIDI STROUD-WATTS IS THERE. WHAT'S COMING UP? HAIDI: ONE THING IS FOR SURE, ALL 500 ATTENDEES AT THIS EVENT ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EY E ON WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THESE MARKET GYRATIONS. IT HAS BEEN REALLY INTERESTED IN TERMS OF SOME OF THESE STOCK PICKS THAT WE'VE HEARD FROM ALREADY. A LOT OF THEM ARE AI AGNOSTIC. PICKS LIKE DISNEY KICKING OFF THE DAY. TAKING A LOOK AT WHAT IS THE HUMAN PART THAT WILL NOT BE REPLACED BY AI. WE WILL BE SPEAKING ABOUT ALL THINGS PRIVATE CREDIT AND HOW THE BROADER PUBLIC VOLATILITY WILL PLAY INTO HELP AUSTRALIAN PRIVATE CREDIT IS GOING TO GO FROM HERE. LOTS OF QUESTIONS WHEN IT COMES TO THE UNDERLYING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS, PARTICULARLY AI INFRASTRUCTURE AND DATA CENTERS. LOTS TO TALK ABOUT FROM BEAUTIFUL QUEENSTOWN. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ YVONNE: ALL RIGHT. WE ARE OFF FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THINGS LOOKING BETTER SENTIMENT WISE. HSTECH, LOWER BY 1.5%. STILL SEEING PRESSURE WHEN IT COMES TO SHENZHEN AND THE LIKE. THAT IS STILL TAKING THE DOWNSIDE MOVES. THAT IS CERTAINLY ONE TO WATCH. NASDAQ FUTURES ARE BACK IN THE GREEN. MORE SIGNS OF STABILIZATION. THE NATIONAL STABILIZATION FUND COULD BE ACTING OR DOING SOMETHING ACCORDING TO SOME REPORTS FROM TAIWAN LOCALLY THERE AS WELL. LET'S HEAD BACK TO THE CIE IN SHANGHAI. MINMIN LOW IS STANDING BY WITH OUR NEXT GUEST TO DISCUSS EU CHINA TRADE RELATIONS. MINMIN: JOINING ME IS --. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. SO THIS IS THE HOME OF IMPORTS. HOW MUCH, HOW HIGH IS THE PARTICIPATION THAT YOU SEE FOR EUROPEAN BUSINESSES SO FAR? WHAT IS THE MOOD AROUND HERE? >> I'M VERY HAPPY TO COME BACK HERE FOR SHANGHAI. IT'S AN IMPORTANT EVENT. A SYMBOL OF TRIANA -- CHINA TRYING TO BUY MORE PRODUCT FROM ABROAD. AS OUR MEMBER SAYS, IT'S AN EVENT WHERE YOU CAN FIND UNDER THE SAME ROOF LOCAL GOVERNMENT, MEDIA, STAKEHOLDER. THIS IS THE POSITIVE THING. ON THE OTHER HAND, WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE DEALS TO BE MADE. CIE BACK TO THE ORIGINAL PURPOSE, WHICH IS THE ONE TO IMPROVE THE TRADE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA AND EUROPE. PUBLICATIONS. WE THOUGHT AFTER A FEW YEARS, AN UPTICK OF OPTIMISM ON EUROPEAN BUSINESS ACTIVITIES HERE IN CHINA. MINMIN: I KNOW YOU HAD CONVERSATION WITH CHINESE OFFICIALS YESTERDAY. WHAT DID YOU GUYS DISCUSS? CARLO: THIS IS A GOOD MOMENT TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL AUTHORITIES. OF COURSE, YESTERDAY FOR US WAS AN IMPORTANT DAY. AFTER THE TRADE TALK, THE MINISTER, A COUPLE WEEKS AGO IN BEIJING, YESTERDAY WAS THE FIRST MATCHMAKING IN ORDER TO IMPROVE THE MEDICAL DEVICE SITUATION HERE IN CHINA. ESPECIALLY TO IMPROVE THE PUBLIC PROCUREMENT OF THIS COMPANY. 89% OF COMPANIES IN THE MEDICAL MARKET ACCESS. YESTERDAY WE HAD 40 EUROPEAN COMPANIES AND OVER 140 POTENTIAL BUYERS FROM CHINA. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE WERE SOME KEY REGULATORS THAT COULD ALSO HELP TO INTERPRET THE REGULATION IN CHINA. THIS IS A GOOD STEP, AS GOOD AS THE STEP ON THE IMPORT OR EV FROM CHINA. WE ARE CONTINUING THE DIALOGUE TO IMPROVE THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IN CHINA. BARRIERS. WHAT HAVE YOU BEEN SAYING? YOU JUST CAME BACK FROM BRUSSELS AS WELL. YOU HAVE BEEN ADVOCATING ON BEHALF OF YOUR MEMBERS TO EU OFFICIALS. CARLO: THANK YOU FOR THE QUESTION. WE SPENT A WEEK. WE HAD 65 MEETINGS WITH THE RELEVANT AUTHORITIES. THE CONCEPT WAS, WHAT IS IN FOR EUROPEAN COMPANIES? IN A POSITIVE WAY, WE SEE THE TRADE TALK THAT'S GOING ON BETWEEN THE TRAIN REPRESENTATIVES AND CHINA. THIS IS GOOD. FOR A FEW MONTHS, IT WAS STALLED IN NEGOTIATIONS. WE DISCUSSED ABOUT THE MEDICAL DEVICE. WE DISCUSSED THE POTENTIAL CAP ON THE EV SECTOR. ALSO EXPORT CONTROLS. FACING HERE IN CHINA. BRUSSELS, I WANT TO MAKE CLEAR ONE POINT. EUROPE IS NOT BECOMING MORE PROTECTIONIST. EUROPE IS TRYING TO HAVE INSTRUMENTS TO DIVERSIFY THE SOURCING OF DIFFERENT PRODUCTS. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT CHINA IS DOING SINCE MANY YEARS WITH THE SELF-RELIANCE POLICY AND SO ON. SO WE ARE TRYING TO BALANCE WHAT EUROPEAN BUSINESS WANTS HE OR, WHAT CHINA WANTS HERE, ESPECIALLY FOR EUROPE. CARLO: WE PREVIOUSLY -- MINMIN: WE PREVIOUSLY REPORTED THAT THE EU IS LOOKING TO CHEMICALS, FURNITURE'S, AND THE LIKE. WHAT ARE YOU HEARING FROM BUSINESSES? IT DOESN'T JUST AFFECT EXPORTS. IT AFFECTS EUROPEAN COMPANIES. IT INCREASES BUSINESS COSTS. IS THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY SPEAKING WITH ONE VOICE AS THE POLITICAL COMMUNITY IN BRUSSELS? CARLO: AS A BUSINESS PEOPLE, WE ARE BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE. WE ARE SPEAKING WITH THE CHINESE AUTHORITY HERE. THEY TELL US THAT WE ARE DOING TOO LITTLE IN CHINA. WHEN WE SPEAK WITH EUROPEAN AUTHORITIES, THEY ARE TELLING US WE ARE DOING TOO MUCH. WHAT'S IMPORTANT IN CHINA? TO FIND A BALANCE BETWEEN THE P&L AND THE PROFITABILITY THAT EUROPEAN COMPANIES ARE DOING HERE. OUR COMPANY, THEY ARE HERE TO COMPETE ON A GLOBAL SCALE. THE STRATEGY NOW CHANGE. FROM CHINA TO CHINA, FROM CHINA TO THE WORLD. OUR COMPANY HERE, CLOSE TO THE ECHO SYSTEM OF CHINA, CLOSE TO THE COMPETITOR HELP TO BE COMPETITIVE IN EUROPE. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT IS NOT VERY ALIGNED. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE ARE TRYING TO ADVOCATE HERE IN CHINA AND ALSO BACK IN EUROPE. WE ARE HERE FOR THE GOOD NOT ONLY OF OUR COMPANY BUT ALSO OUR HEADQUARTERS BACK IN EUROPE. MINMIN: DO YOU THINK THE ONGOING EXPORTS? CARLO: IT'S IMPORTANT THAT CHINA UNDERSTANDS THAT THE TRADE DEFICIT THAT WE ARE HAVING, ALMOST ONE BILLION EURO PER DAY OF TRADE DEFICIT IS NO MORE SUSTAINABLE FOR THE EU. WE NEED TO LOOK TO SECURE OUR INDUSTRY. SECURE OUR ECONOMY IN A WAY IF CONTINUE. THIS NEW INSTRUMENT, THE TRADE CONSULTATION INSTRUMENT, THAT ALLOWS TO HAVE LONG DISCUSSION, FAST DISCUSSION, AND FAST DECISION. IT'S A GOOD STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. YOU MAY HAVE HEARD ABOUT THE LETTER AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER SENT BY PRESIDENT MACRON TO THE COMMISSION IN ORDER TO BE A BIT MORE STRONG IN SOME POSITION OR SOME DISTORTION. THIS IS DEFINITELY THE RESULT OF THE TRADE DEFICIT THAT'S GROWING EVERY DAY. AN OPPORTUNITY LIKE IN EV'S AND OTHER SECTORS TO FIND A BALANCE BETWEEN THE COMPETITION AND BETWEEN ECONOMIC SECURITY DEFINITELY WILL HELP. MINMIN: THANK YOU SO MUCH. NATIONAL VICE PRESIDENT OF THE EU CHAMBER OF COMMERCE IN CHINA. ALIGNING WITH WHAT I'VE HEARD FROM MANY BUSINESSES, FINDING A DELICATE BALANCE. BUSINESSES WANT THE CHEAPEST SUPPLIES THEY CAN FIND. TOWING THE LINE TO AVOID THE GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AS WELL. DAVID: I GUESS, WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE? THANK YOU SO MUCH. MINMIN LOW IN SHANGHAI FOR US. THAT WAS A CONVERSATION WITH THE EU CHAMBER OF COMMERCE THERE. JUST AN UPDATE ON THE MARKETS ON THE BENCHMARK BASIS. WE ARE JUST SLIGHTLY COMING OFF THE LOWS ON ASIA-PACIFIC BENCHMARK. VOLUMES ARE ABOUT 30% HEAVIER THAN USUAL ACROSS SECTORS. EVERYTHING IS DOWN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF REAL ESTATE LED BY I.T., INDUSTRIALS, HEALTH CARE, AND MATERIALS. LOTS MORE AHEAD. THIS IS THE CHINA SHOW. ♪ YVONNE: ALL RIGHT. IT'S FRIDAY AND WE ARE SEEING UPSIDE WHEN IT COMES TO THE SEMICONDUCTOR TRADE IN CHINA TODAY. WHAT WE ARE SEEING FROM MOST MARKETS, THIS WHOLE AI TRADE. AI STOCKS IN PARTICULAR. BOB, TENCENT. THE PURE PLAY IS TAKING IT MORE DOWN SIDE THEN WE SAW ON THE INTERNET PLATFORMS. TENCENT. WE ARE COMING BACK A LITTLE BIT. YOU ARE SEEING PRESSURE FOR THE LIKES OF Z.AI. HSTECH COMING OFF INITIAL LOWS HERE. IN TERMS OF JAPAN, THERE'S A BIT OF A ROTATION TO CONSUMER PLAYS IN PARTICULAR. EARNINGS-WISE, TOYOTA, SONY, NINTENDO. TOYOTA STILL SEEING SOME BIG MOVES THERE. SONY LOOKING BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE PACK. DAVID: AS THINGS STAND, WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE INDEX TO END THE DAY IN A BEAR MARKET. 20% DOWN. WE WILL HAVE MORE AHEAD HERE ON THE CHINA SHOW. ♪ YVONNE: 11:29 A.M. IN TOKYO. GOING TO THE LUNCH BREAK IN A MOMENT. WE ARE STILL CONTINUING TO SEE DOWNSIDE BUT OFF FROM THE INITIAL LOWS WHEN IT COMES TO EQUITY MARKETS THIS MORNING. DOLLAR-YEN SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF WEAKNESS. WE ARE SEEING A 10 BASIS POINT DROP IN THE 10 YEAR JGB, FOLLOWING THE MOVE WE ARE SEEING ACROSS TREASURIES THIS MORNING. DAVID: YEAH. IT'S TERRIBLE. YVONNE: IT'S UGLY. DAVID: THE EARNINGS STORY, I THINK YOU HAD TOYOTA FOR EXAMPLE WHICH CAME OUT WITH A SIZABLE BUY BACK AND IT WILL NOT BE CHEAPER FOR THEM GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING. IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKE IT IS OVER GIVEN THIS -- IT SEEMS A VERY RIGHT NOW. LET US VEER AWAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE DAMAGE WE ARE SEEING IN THE EQUITY MARKETS. YVONNE: LOOK AT THE BOND MARKET. DAVID: THIS IS HALFWAY EVENTUALLY WHERE WE WANT TO GO IN TERMS OF TAKING A STEP BACK AND REALLY RELAX FOR A MOMENT BUT YES, THE BOND MARKETS HAVE SERVED AS THE PORT IN THE STORM, SPECIFICALLY WITH THE CHINESE 10 YEAR. WE HAVE NOT BEEN AT THESE LEVELS EVER. IT IS A RECORD LOW. YVONNE: I AM DISCLOSING YOUR SCREEN. CHILL GO'S ON IS ONE OF YOUR SCREENS AGAINST THESE CRAZY MARKETS. WE MIGHT NEED A CALL NATURE BIT. WE GO TO QUEENSTOWN, HAIDI IS THERE WITH OUR NEXT GUEST. TAKE IT AWAY. HAIDI> : I AIM TO PLEASE. IS NOTHING MORE CALLING VERSUS THE CHAOS OF THE MARKET IS THAT HERE IN BEAUTIFUL QUEENSTOWN? I AM HERE WITH REVOLUTION ASSET MANAGEMENT CIO BOB SAHOTA WITH SOME VERY CALMING INVESTMENTS. WE WERE TALKING ABOUT HOW GOOD IT IS TO BE IN THE BOARDING PARTS OF WHAT YOU HAVE IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. >> WHAT WE DO IS NOT VERY SEXY, IT IS PRETTY BORING. DONE WELL, PRIVATE CREDIT HAS A PLACE IN PEOPLE'S PORTFOLIOS. HAIDI: THERE'S A LOT OF TALK ABOUT REDEMPTIONS, LIQUIDITY AND THE RISK WHEN IT COMES TO PERHAPS -- WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT THE MOST SOPHISTICATED PART OF THE MARKET WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THOSE RISKS. BOB: THINK PRIVATE CREDIT MEANS DIFFERENT THINGS TO DIFFERENT PEOPLE. WE HAVE A NEED POST AND A FIST -- PHILOSOPHY ABOUT CASH FLOW AND CASH FLOW BASED LENDING IS WHAT WE ARE ABOUT AND DELIVERING THAT INCOME I MENTIONED. ONE STATEMENT FOR MOST OF OUR PEERS THAT SETS US APART, THIS LOVE AFFAIR WITH REAL ESTATE IN AUSTRALIA IS ALL ENDURING. WE DON'T DO CONSTRUCTION AND PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT -- IN THAT ONE STATEMENT, IT SETS US APART. YVONNE: THAT -- HAIDI: THAT IS RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL. WHAT ABOUT DATA CENTERS? BOB: I THINK IT WILL BE AN EMERGING ASSET CLASS BUT FOR US, CONSTRUCTION MEANS THERE'S AN ELEMENT ON RISK WHEN IT COMES TO DELIVERY PROJECT TIMETABLES AND REALLY NEGATIVE CASH FLOW. WHEN WE ARE LOOKING TO PROVIDE PEOPLE A DEFENSIVE ALLOCATION IN THEIR PORTFOLIOS, IT IS ALL ABOUT CASH FLOW. FOR US, IT IS LENDING TO REALLY GOOD QUALITY COMPANIES, AND THE NUMBER ONE OR NUMBER TWO MARKET SHARE THAT HAS HIRED BARRIERS TO ENTRY THAN CYCLICAL OR YOU HAVE VERY GRANULAR PRINCIPAL INTEREST PAYMENTS FROM AUTO LOANS, CREDIT CARDS, MORTGAGE NOTES, PERSONAL LOANS, EQUIPMENT FINANCE. REALLY, THAT IS THE ETHOS AND FLOW. HAIDI: WE ALSO TALKED ABOUT SOFTWARE. ARE THERE BETTER OPPORTUNITIES THERE? BOB: SOFTWARE GETS A BAD RAP ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT AMERICAN EXAMPLES. IN AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND WHICH IS OUR PRINCIPAL FOCUS, WE DON'T REALLY DO ANYTHING OUTSIDE OUR SHORES. SOFTWARE FOR US IS REALLY ABOUT MISSION-CRITICAL SOFTWARE THAT IS ENTRENCHED IN THE CUSTOMER PROFILES. WE ARE REALLY TALKING ABOUT 4.5 TIMES DEBT TO BEEBITA IN TERMS OF LEVERAGE. AT 25 TIMES EARNINGS. THEY WANT TO COME BACK TO 12 TO 15 TIMES. THERE IS A VERY SIGNIFICANT EQUITY BUFFER WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT SENIOR SECURED DEBT ON A CASH FLOW BASIS. WE ARE VERY COMFORTABLE WITH OUR SOFTWARE EXPOSURE, WHICH IN OUR PORTFOLIOS ONLY ABOUT 8% OF THE TOTAL PORTFOLIO. HAIDI: THE MARGIN COMPRESSION WE ARE SEEING ACROSS PRIVATE CREDIT PRETTY BROADLY. YOU THINK THE WORST IS PASSED? BOB: WE ARE SEEING RE-RATING FOR PRICE TO RISK. THERE WAS QUITE A LOT OF MONEY CROWDING INTO THE SPACE WHICH MEANT CREDIT SPACE DID COME IN QUITE A LOT. IN PRIVATE CREDIT WHICH WE CAN SEE, BUT PLEASINGLY, I THINK PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO REALIZE THERE IS NOT A LITTLE MORE OF A RE-RATING, AND POTENTIALLY GETTING MORE VALUE FOR YOUR RISK. HAIDI: HERE -- DO YOU THINK THE TIMING COULD BE BETTER? BOB: I THINK INCOME IS AT THE FORE OF WHAT WE ARE TRYING TO ACHIEVE AND THE HEAVY LIFTING WITH THE RBA RAISING RATES EARLIER THIS WEEK, THE BASE RATE MOVING UP WITH A WELL PRODUCED PORTFOLIO AND CAREFULLY SELECTED CREDITS CAN DELIVER YOU WITH A LONG-TERM RETURN. SIMILAR TO WHAT LONG-TERM EQUITIES PRODUCE WITH A LOT LESS VOLATILITY, A LOT LESS CORRELATION, AND A LOT MORE MONTHLY INCOME WITH LESS ISSUES INVOLVED YOU MIGHT SEE IN THE MARKETS GOING FORWARD. HAIDI: WE ARE SEEING A LOT OF HEADWINDS AT THE MOMENT, POLITICALLY DRIVEN AND MACRO DRIVEN FOR PUBLIC MARKETS AND EQUITY MARKETS. WHAT WORRIES YOU WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT MIGHT BE LYING AROUND THE CORNER? BOB: WE ALWAYS WORRY ABOUT WHAT COULD GO WRONG. EVEN IN THE BEST OF TIMES, WE HAVE A LONG CREDITS LIKE A WHERE THERE ARE TOO MANY ISSUES. WE BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE YEAR OF RECKONING WERE CREDIT WILL BE SORTED OUT IN TERMS OF WHAT WORKS AND WHAT DOESN'T WORK. EVERY ONE OF OUR 50 GET POSITIONS IN THE PORTFOLIO HAVE BEEN CAREFULLY SELECTED TO BE DOWNSIDE PROTECTED, TO MACRO ECONOMIC DOWNTURN OR RECESSION SHOULD WE GET THAT. WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT THE PORTFOLIO CAN ENDURE WHATEVER WE GET. HAIDI: IS COST OF FUNDING GOING TO BE AN ISSUE? BOB: IT IS AN ISSUE FOR SMALL COMPANIES OR VERY VULNERABLE ENTITIES THAT CANNOT PRODUCE MARGINS THROUGH A TIME. WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT LENDING TO VERY STRONG COMPANIES, THEY HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR A LONG TIME. SOME OF THE PORTFOLIO COMPANIES WOULD LEND TO HAVE SECURED HOUSEHOLD NAMES IN AUSTRALIA LIKE ICON CANCER TREATMENT, COLONIAL FIRST. THESE ARE WONDERFUL, CYCLICAL BUSINESSES. HAIDI: AI AGNOSTIC FOR MOST OF THOSE BUSINESSES. IS THAT A THEMATIC? BOB: I SUBSCRIBED TO THE WARREN BUFFETT SCHOOL OF THOUGHT THAT WE DON'T REALLY GET THE RANCH ON ANY ONE THING. AI IS SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW WHO THE WINNERS WILL BE AND WHO THE LOSERS WILL BE. WHEN WE, ARE TALKING ABOUT WHAT WE DO FOR A LIVING IT IS ALL ABOUT THAT NON-CORRELATED INCOME. SO, BETTING ON WHO IS GOING TO WIN ON AN AI BASIS OR TECHNOLOGY IS NOT SOMETHING WE CAN REALLY UNDERWRITE FOR FIVE TO SEVEN YEARS IS THE WAY WE THINK ABOUT IT. WE LEAVE THAT TO THE PEOPLE WHO WANT TO TAKE THAT BET ELSEWHERE IN THEIR PORTFOLIOS. HAIDI: WHAT ARE INVESTORS MISSING? BOB: SOMETIMES BORING IS GOOD. THE COMPOUNDING NATURE OF WHAT WE DO IS REALLY THE POWER OF REVOLUTION ASSET MANAGEMENT. IT IS NOT REALLY SEXY, HIGH RISK INCOME. WITH THE CURRENT BUDGET BACKDROP WE HAVE, CAPITAL GAINS ARE NOT WHAT THEY USED TO BE, ESPECIALLY IF YOU GIVE THE GOVERNMENT BACK HALF OF THAT IN TAX. INCOME WILL BE VERY MUCH AT THE FOREFRONT OF INVESTORS THINKING GOING FORWARD. HAIDI: GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US. YOU WANTED CALM AND BORING, CONSISTENT, PREDICTABLE? WE GAVE YOU THAT. DAVID: ABSOLUTELY. I NEVER THOUGHT I WOULD NEED A SHOT OF A MEADOW. HAIDI JOINING US. YVONNE: OH THERE. THAT EVEN TOOK HAIDI OUT OF THE SHOP. SHE IS ALSO VERY CALMING. DAVID: BACK TO THE CHAOS. YES. YVONNE: THE CONFERENCE. A SEPARATE TLIV IS ABOUT WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE MARKETS. IF YOU NEED THE INTERCHANGE BETWEEN THE CALM PICTURES, THAT IS WHERE YOU GO. DAVID: HEARTS AND MINDS. TO THE OTHER TLIV WHICH IS HARSH AND MADNESS. YVONNE: I LIKE WHERE YOU WENT. DAVID: LOTS MORE AHEAD. MARKETS ARE SELLING OFF THIS FRIDAY. THIS IS \"THE CHINA SHOW.\" ♪ YVONNE: IT IS FRIDAY SO WE ARE WATCHING THE ETF IQ ASIA. LOOKING AT THIS ASSET CLASS AND AS YOU CAN SEE, WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE SELLOFF IN ASIA AFTER WHAT WAS QUITE WIPE WIPEOUT AND U.S. MARKETS LAST NIGHT. DAVID: $4.5 TRILLION SINGLE DAY WIPEOUT OVERNIGHT IN TOTALITY. FOR A LOOK AT HOW THAT IS SHAPING UP AND DISTINGUISHING ITSELF IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC, LET'S BRING IN REBECCA, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ETF ANALYST TO HELP SO SHOW -- >> IF YOU LOOK AT ETF'S, THEY ARE THE PERFECT VEHICLE FOR TIMES OF VOLATILITY LIKE RIGHT NOW. TO REACT, WE HAD CIRCUIT BREAKERS BUT ETF STILL CONTINUES TO TRADE. INVESTORS CAN GET ACCESS TO THE MARKET VERY QUICKLY VIA THE ETF. WE SEE A LOT OF FLOWS ACROSS AI, TECH, SEMICONDUCTOR SELLING OFF ON THAT. WE ALSO HAVE THE INVERSE LEVERAGE PRODUCTS THAT INVESTORS CAN USE THE SHORT OR LONG THEIR VIEWS. YVONNE: WHAT IS USUALLY THE MIDTERMS IMPACTS ON ETF'S? REBECCA: MY COLLEAGUES LOOKED AT ALL, AND WHAT WAS INTERESTING WAS POST MIDTERM ELECTIONS, THE MARKET USUALLY PERFORMS WELL. THIS YEAR WAS THE THIRD BEST-PERFORMING MARKET -- THIRD BEST-PERFORMING DATE OF THE S&P SINCE 1970. THE S&P POST MIDTERM ELECTION RETURNS 1.5%. BACK THE BEST-PERFORMING WAS 1982. IT RETURNED CLOSE TO 4%. FOR ONE THING, THERE WAS A LOT OF VOLATILITY GOING INTO THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS BUT NOW PEOPLE CAN MOVE ON FROM THAT. FOR INVESTORS THAT WANT TO TRADE THE REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT'S, THERE ARE TWO ETF THAT TRACK THIS. THE NET ETF WHICH IS FOR NANCY PELOSI. 72 BASIS POINTS AND ROUGHLY $286 MILLION IN ASSETS. THIS WAS ONE OF THE BEST-PERFORMING ETF'S. IT BE THE S&P 500 BY 20%. THERE'S ANOTHER ONE THAT TRACKS THE REPUBLICAN, GOP, IT IS MAINLY ENERGY AND MATERIALS. POST MIDTERM ELECTIONS, GOP WAS THE THIRD BEST-PERFORMING SECTOR. IT IS A GOOD INDICATOR THAT THE MARKETS CAN NOW MOVE ON FROM THE ELECTIONS. I THINK ACROSS THE TWO ETF'S, IF YOU LOOK AT BOTH OF THOSE ETF'S AND TAKE BOTH OF THOSE HOLDINGS, IT PERFORMS EVEN BETTER. THE RATIONALE IS A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE TRACKING DEMOCRATS BECAUSE THEY HAVE A LOT OF INFORMATION INTO THE COMPANIES AND GOVERNMENTS, SO THEY CAN SAY WHICH GOVERNMENTS -- COMPANIES THEY THINK. BUT SOME OF THESE CONGRESSMEN MAKE AS MUCH IS 14,000 TRADES PER YEAR. ULTIMATELY, IF YOU COMBINE ALL OF THE TRADES THEY DO, IT SHOULD HAVE A VERY GOOD PORTFOLIO. YVONNE: INTERESTING. DAVID: MORE THAN SOME TRADERS. REBECCA, THANK YOU SO MUCH. REBECCA SIN, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ETF ANALYST. I DIDN'T KNOW THOSE ETF'S EXISTED. OK. JOINING US ON SET IS FREDERICK CHU, ASIA DIRECTOR AT CRANE SHARES. K-WIEB IS THEIR CHINESE INTERNET FOCUS ETF. THEY HAVE BEEN EXPANDING THEMATIC OFFERINGS AND THE NEW THEME IS PUBLIC AND PRIVATE. VERY NICE TO SEE YOU. HOW ARE YOU DOING? >> ALL GOOD. DAVID: OVERNIGHT, WHAT DID YOU SEE WITH THIS MARKET ROUT? >> QUITE A BIT OF A MIX WE HAVE SEEN. KWEB, WE HAVE HUNDREDS OF INFLOWS OVER THE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS. PEOPLE ARE PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO RECOGNIZE THE UNDERVALUATION. IT HAS BEEN AT THE OVERSOLD AREA. BUT ON THE FLIPSIDE, THE MEGA TECH IS A DISASTER. IF YOU LOOK AT THE STOCKS INDEX, IT IS REALLY DISASTROUS, SO THAT AFFECTS THE MEGA TECH PORTION. WE SEE A PULLBACK FROM BIG IPO'S FROM MAG 7 NAMES AS WELL. A BIT OF HERE AND THERE, BUT OVERALL I THINK GENERALLY FOR US THE INTEREST ON CHINA, EVEN THOUGH IT IS MORE TACTICAL, IT SEEMS TO BE COMING BACK WRITING ON THE CORRECTION IN THE U.S. YVONNE: WHAT IS DRIVING THAT? IS IT A ROTATION, SOMETHING WHERE PEOPLE ARE MORE INTERESTED IN THE CHINA IS ALWAYS CHEAP, BUT THIS CHIP TO AN EXTENT THAT PEOPLE HAS TO BUY IT FOR TACTICAL REASONS, FOR THE PAST 12 TO 18 MONTHS, WE SEE FUND FLOWS ARE MORE TACTICALLY ALLOCATED TO CHINA. IT IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR NOW. DAVID: ONE LAST THING ON THE MARKET WE CAN TALK ABOUT, AS WE TRY TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH MORE THE CLEANSING IN THIS MARKET WILL CONTINUE, IS THERE ANYTHING SPECIFIC YOU WILL BE WATCHING IN THE ETF SPACE TO GIVE US A SENSE WHETHER WE ARE >> THE CORRECTION IS NOT THAT BAD. IT COMES DOWN 6% OR 7% FROM THIS YEAR. NASDAQ HAS HIGH VOLATILITY, SO IT COMES FROM ABOUT 15%. STOXX IT'S A DIFFERENT THING. ;, A SINGLE SECTOR. I DON'T THINK THE CORRECTION IS SUBSTANTIAL. IT JUST HAPPENED RIGHT AFTER THE ELECTION. THE FIRST DAY AFTER THE ELECTION -- DAVID: IT WAS ACTUALLY GOOD. FREDERICK: SO PEOPLE HAD HOPED, BUT IN THE NEWS ON TEXAS KILLS EVERY VIBE. BUT I THINK THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS PROBABLY ON THE GEOPOLITICAL TENSION IN THE MIDDLE EAST, IF THAT CAN BE RESOLVED, THEN WE WOULD BE BACK ON THE RIGHT TRACK. YOU ARE LOOKING AT IN TERMS OF THEMATIC ETF'S THAT ARE COMING OUT? FREDERICK: WE HAVE ALWAYS BEEN A THEMATIC HOUSE. WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH COVID, BEEN THROUGH CHINA DIVESTMENTS, AND WE ALSO STARTED TAPPING INTO DIFFERENT STRATEGIES LIKE OPTION-BASED STRATEGIES, PUBLIC-PRIVATE, WHICH IS THE SECOND FLAGSHIP OFFERING OF OURS . WE ARE ALSO LETTING UP MORE ON THE PUBLIC-PRIVATE SIDE, WHICH IS SOMETHING WE THINK IS UNIQUE FOR THE REGION, UNIQUE FOR PARTICULARLY THE ASIAN INVESTORS. ALSO WE HAVE SEEN A BIG GROWTH ASPECT IN THIS TYPE OF PRODUCTS. IF IT IS A PURE PRIVATE, IT IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE TOO MUCH, BECAUSE INVESTORS LOVE PRIVATE STUFF BUT THEY HATE BEING LIQUIDATED. ETF OFFERS YOU WITH PERFECT LIQUIDITY. ONE DAY AFTER IPO, YOU CAN SELL WITHOUT LOCKUPS. SOME OTHER OPTIONS STRATEGIES LIKE BUFFER IS ALSO ON THE LINEUP. >> WHAT TYPE OF APPETITE DO YOU SEE ON THE PUBLIC-PRIVATE? THAT SEEMS DECENT GIVEN WHAT PEOPLE WANT AND NEED. DO YOU EXPECT MORE COMPETITION TO COME IN? SEEMS LIKE YOU HAVE A RUNWAY. FREDERICK: PROBABLY. IT IS NOT OFFERED IN ASIA YET, BUT SOONER OR LATER, IT IS UP TO THE REGULATORS HOW THEY SEE -- LIKE, THE SEC, THEY HAVE GUIDELINES SAYING YOU CANNOT EXCEED 15% ON THE PRIVATE PORTION. BUT HAVE WE MANAGED THAT IN TERMS OF VALUATION? HAVE WE COME BACK WITH A RATIONAL VALUATION, THAT WOULD BE SOMETHING -- THE GUIDELINE HAS BEEN SET BY THE REGULATORS AND THE FUND MANAGERS WILL HAVE TO TAKE UP THE FIDUCIARY ON THAT. IT PROBABLY TAKES A BIT OF TIME FOR ASIA TO COME UP WITH A'S SOLIDIFIED FRAMEWORK FOR THIS PROCESS, SO WE TRY TO TAKE A FIRST MOVER ADVANTAGE, BUT IN THE U.S. IT IS A BIG MARKET AND VERY MATURE, BUT THEY ARE ALSO VERY COMPETITIVE. I THINK THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OUR PUBLIC-PRIVATE AND SOME OF THE OTHERS AS WE HAVE SHARES FROM THE COMPANY WE SELL ON THE CAP TABLE WHEREAS SOME OF THE OTHER ETF'S INVEST VIA SPV'S, ETC. YVONNE: EVERYBODY IS LOOKING AT THIS ANTHROPIC IPO. WHAT DO YOU SEE IN THE MARKET? THERE'S A LOT OF FLOWS. WHAT DO YOU SEE NOW IN TERMS OF ANTHROPIC AND HOW BEST TO PLAY IT? FREDERICK: I THINK THE INTEREST IS MUCH HIGHER BEFORE THE ELECTION. THEMES. BUT AN ETF LIKE THAT, I THINK IT OFFERS A GOOD TOOL FOR THE INVESTORS WHO ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE IPO, NUMBER ONE. NUMBER TWO, YOU CAN LIQUIDATE IT ANY TIME AFTER THE IPO. I THINK THESE ARE THE THINGS WE SEE THAT POST PORTFOLIO OWNERS WOULD LIKE TO ENGAGE IN THEIR PRIVATE ASSETS. YVONNE: YOU CAN TUNE INTO ETF ASIA EVERY FRIDAY HERE ON \"THE CHINA SHOW.\" WE BRING YOU MORE ANALYSIS AND CONVERSATIONS WITH SOME OF THE TOP MARKET PLAYERS ♪ DAVID: WE FELT IT WAS AN APT ♪ DAVID: WE FELT IT WAS AN APT TIME TO HAVE A LOOK AT FACTORS RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE SELLOFF AND OUR PRODUCERS HAVE MANAGED TO COUGH THIS UP. AS ABOUT MID DAY, ROUGHLY IN ASIA-PACIFIC, THIS IS ABOUT 2000 COMPANIES ACROSS THE ASIA-PACIFIC, THE BIGGEST 2000, LIQUIDITY MOMENTUM. ALMOST EVERYWHERE YOU LOOK, INCLUDING, OF COURSE, AREAS YOU WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME BIDS. YVONNE: DIVIDEND YIELD, EVEN THOSE PARTS OF THE MARKET ARE SEEING RED, THOUGH NOT AS BAD, BUT STILL. IT GOES TO SHOW THAT THIS IS AN INDISCRIMINATE SELLOFF WE ARE SEEING ACROSS THE BOARD. NOWHERE TO HIDE. 3% LOSSES WHEN IT COMES TO THE ASIAN EQUITY GAUGE HERE THIS MORNING. WHAT IS DRIVING THAT REMAINS THE NORTH ASIAN BENCHMARKS. KOSPI, TAIWAN. WE ARE ALSO WATCHING U.S. FUTURES. THAT IS THE SILVER LINING IN ALL OF THIS. MAYBE THERE ARE SIGNS OF A BOUNCE BACK. NASDAQ FUTURES CONTINUED TO PUSH HIGHER. SESSION HIGHS, UP ONE POINT 5%. YOU ALSO HAVE SOUTH KOREA EASING THE MARGIN RULES. THAT COULD HELP. TAIWAN, WE HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF THE STABILIZATION FUND COULD BE ACTING LATER ON TODAY, SO CERTAINLY THERE ARE SIGNS OF MAY BE A LITTLE MORE IMPROVEMENT THERE ON WHERE SENTIMENT LIES. DAVID: YEAH. YOU'VE GOT TO WONDER IF THIS IS A SHORT SQUEEZE, ESPECIALLY IN THE U.S., GIVEN WE WERE DOWN 12% AND CERTAINLY A GOOD TIME TO START COVERING THOSE THINGS. BUT HERE'S SOMETHING TO TRACK AS WELL. A STATISTIC THAT STOOD OUT TO ME, AS WE LOOK AT THE CHINESE MARKETS, IS NVIDIA ACTUALLY HAS WHITE OUT ALL THE GAINS OF THE YEAR. WE TALKED ABOUT JENSEN HUANG GETTING BOOTED OUT OF THE TOP 10 RICHEST PEOPLE. YVONNE: WHAT DID YOU SEE ON X, PEOPLE POSTING PHOTOS OF JENSEN BACK IN THAT DAY? DAVID: PRE-AI BOOM DAYS. TAKES EVALUATION BACK TO 10 YEARS AGO ON THE STOCK. YVONNE: WE ARE GOING TO LEAVE IT THERE. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND. ♪","textShort":"China Tech Stocks Slide in Broad Market Rout\n\n>> I THINK IT IS A HICCUP TO THE BROADER CYCLE OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE DATA CENTERS. >> I THINK WE WILL SEE SOME CLASHES BETWEEN THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION AND THE NEW PEOPLE COMING IN. I THINK THAT IS BAD FOR MARKETS. >> THE…","truncated":false,"url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHYEGRR5QDA"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T06:07:11.269Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"36a725a8-cca1-4f7e-a8ce-2a3030b31d64","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["عمليات البيع القسري هي التي تحدد السعر","إنه يستجيب لطلبات تغطية الهامش، وبيع الأجانب، وقواطع التداول."],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"يقول المنشور إن البيع القسري وطلبات تغطية الهامش باتت تحرك الأسعار في سوق كوسبي.","topic":"سوق الأسهم الكورية"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["سامسونغ: -25.9% في شهر","إس كيه هاينكس: -28.7% في شهر"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"يذكر المنشور خسائر شهرية كبيرة لأسهم سامسونغ وإس كيه هاينكس ضمن موجة الهبوط.","topic":"أسهم سامسونغ وإس كيه هاينكس"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["اشترى المستثمرون الأفراد في كوريا الأسهم بقروض من شركات الوساطة.","لا نقد؟ البيع بأي سعر"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"يحذر المنشور من أن اقتراض المستثمرين الأفراد لشراء الأسهم يؤدي إلى تصفية مراكزهم عند هبوط الأسعار.","topic":"الاستثمار بالهامش في كوريا"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:KR200","confidence":0.68,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":784.53,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"يتوقع المصدر استمرار هبوط مؤشر كوسبي باتجاه 4,220","id":"sig_63cf9399c5db475a92e4f635","matched":["لن ينتهي بحلول يوم الاثنين.","وهذا سيعني نحو 4,220","كل هبوط عميق بيعًا قسريًا بحتًا"],"maxLeverage":20,"rationale":"يتوقع المصدر مزيدًا من الهبوط في مؤشر كوسبي نحو 4,220، لأن البيع القسري وفك الديون يضغطان على السوق.","routing":"inferred","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"KR200","tags":["أسهم كوريا","كوسبي","بيع قسري"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"c2b9af6c-bedf-4a38-a500-111c8b263f8c","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T06:05:47.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2098134488358543360/8wl14IM2_normal.jpg","handle":"@Rashid971x","id":"x-277273553","name":"🇦🇪 Rashid Al Mansoori راشد المنصوري","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"🚨 هذا هو سبب الانهيار المتواصل لسوق كوريا الجنوبية في هذه اللحظة بالذات\n\nإذا كنت لا تزال تعتقد أن مؤشر كوسبي، الذي تراجع إلى النصف تقريبًا منذ يونيو، يتداول كسوق طبيعية، فيجب عليك حتمًا أن تقرأ هذا بعناية.\n\nلأن تلك السوق لم تعد موجودة.\n\nما تشاهده الآن ليس حركة أسعار طبيعية.\n\nإنه ليس «يومًا سيئًا واحدًا».\nإنه ليس أرباح الرقائق.\nوبالتأكيد لن ينتهي بحلول يوم الاثنين.\n\nمعظم الناس غافلون تمامًا عمّا يحدث.\n\nوبحلول الوقت الذي يصبح فيه الأمر واضحًا، يكون الضرر قد وقع بالفعل.\n\nهذه الحركة لم تبدأ اليوم.\nإنها تتراكم بهدوء تحت السطح منذ 5 أشهر.\n\nوالآن تتسارع.\n\nاليوم: تبخّر 8%+ خلال 3 دقائق. التوقف الـ11 للتداول هذا العام.\n\nإليكم الحقيقة:\n\nاشترى المستثمرون الأفراد في كوريا الأسهم بقروض من شركات الوساطة.\n\nوعندما تنخفض الأسعار بما يكفي، فإن عمليات البيع القسري هي التي تحدد السعر، لا المشترون.\n\nهذا بالضبط ما حدث لمؤشر كوسبي.\n\nوهي موجة البيع نفسها التي حدثت بالفعل في:\n→ اليابان: مؤشر نيكاي في سوق هابطة\n→ تايوان: بيع قسري للمراكز الممولة بالهامش\n→ الرقائق الأمريكية: -12.25% في يوم واحد\n→ ناسداك: 10%+ دون مستواه القياسي\n\nالقصة الأصلية لمؤشر كوسبي انكسرت.\n\nصعوده قام على فكرتين:\n→ سامسونغ وإس كيه هاينكس، ما يقارب نصف السوق\n→ طلب لا ينتهي على رقائق الذكاء الاصطناعي\n\nوقد مات ذلك في اللحظة التي كُدِّس فيها هذا فوقه:\n→ 33.4 تريليون وون اقتُرضت لشراء الأسهم\n→ منها 9.2 تريليون وون في سامسونغ وإس كيه هاينكس\n→ 1.22 تريليون وون في صندوق متداول برافعة 2x\n→ الأجانب باعوا بقيمة 9.41 تريليون وون في 5 أيام\n→ 3.278 مليار سهم أُقرضت للبيع على المكشوف\n\nمنذ تلك اللحظة فصاعدًا، أصبح كل هبوط عميق بيعًا قسريًا بحتًا.\n\nليس في الأرباح.\nبل في دفاتر قروض شركات الوساطة، وهذا ما يهم فعلًا.\n\nالودائع النقدية.\n\nالمقياس الذي يفسر كل شيء.\n\nيونيو: 139.69 تريليون وون. هذا الأسبوع: 89.23 تريليون وون.\n\nبمجرد أن يطغى البيع القسري على المشترين، لا يعود السعر يستجيب للأرباح.\n\nإنه يستجيب لطلبات تغطية الهامش، وبيع الأجانب، وقواطع التداول.\n\nيمكن لشركات الوساطة الآن بيع أسهمك.\n\nإنها لا تخمّن الاتجاه.\n\nإنها تفعل ما تفعله في كل سوق هابطة:\n1⃣ إقراض المال لشراء أسهم الرقائق\n2⃣ ينخفض السعر، فيصبح الضمان غير كافٍ\n3⃣ المطالبة بمزيد من النقد\n4⃣ لا نقد؟ البيع بأي سعر\n5⃣ التكرار\n\nهذا ليس «بيعًا بدافع الذعر».\n\nإنه تفكيك للديون.\n\nيمكن الآن أن يتعرض حساب واحد لمستثمر فرد لـ:\n→ سامسونغ: -25.9% في شهر\n→ إس كيه هاينكس: -28.7% في شهر\n→ صندوق متداول برافعة 2x: -45.36% في شهر\n→ عملية بيع من شركة الوساطة لم يأمر بها قط\n\nكل ذلك في الوقت نفسه تمامًا.\n\nهذه 4 مطالبات على حساب واحد.\n\nهذه ليست سوقًا حرة.\n\nهذه آلة ديون ترتدي قناع كوسبي.\n\nتجاهلها إن شئت، لكن لا تتظاهر بأنك لم تُحذَّر.\n\nأدنى مستوى اليوم: 4,911، أي أقل بنسبة 47.7% من المستوى القياسي. عام 2008 هوى به بنسبة 55%. وهذا سيعني نحو 4,220.\n\nأرقام القروض التي تقف وراء هذا الانهيار لن تتصدر العناوين. أعد النشر كي تنتشر أبعد من الذعر.","textShort":"🚨 هذا هو سبب الانهيار المتواصل لسوق كوريا الجنوبية في هذه اللحظة بالذات\n\nإذا كنت لا تزال تعتقد أن مؤشر كوسبي، الذي تراجع إلى النصف تقريبًا منذ يونيو، يتداول كسوق طبيعية، فيجب عليك حتمًا أن تقرأ هذا بعناية.\n\nلأن تلك السوق لم تعد موجودة.\n\nما تشاهده الآن ليس حركة أسعار…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/Rashid971x/status/2118585617667817510"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T05:02:38.966Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[{"kind":"signal","proposal":{"market":"[\"hyperliquid\",\"para\",\"para:AAOI\"]"},"reason":"duplicate_asset"}],"id":"3497d0f0-6d0d-4add-9428-8203c20814e7","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Near term Q4 guidance cut was DSP availability","revised near term projections down slightly to $385M and $420M in revenue"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The post says Q4 revenue projections were reduced amid DSP supply bottlenecks.","topic":"aaoi near term guidance"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["The demand is exceptional, unprecedented.","the amount of demand that we are seeing out there in the industry"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The post relays management's description of industry demand as exceptional and unprecedented.","topic":"optical demand"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Capacity guidance hiked into H2 2027","targets pushed back into H2 2027, due to electrical procurement and construction logistics"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"AAOI raised its later capacity outlook but pushed back capacity targets because of electrical and construction delays.","topic":"aaoi capacity and timing"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:AAOI","confidence":0.75,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":3,"entryPx":47.312,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Sees compelling medium- to long-term opportunity in Applied Optoelectronics","id":"sig_6126a0275be04ad1a5ae2876","matched":["$AAOI","medium-long term opportunities very compelling"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source expects AAOI to offer an attractive medium- to long-term opportunity because of large prospective contracts and its move into merchant CPO lasers.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"AAOI","tags":["optical demand","cpo lasers","long term opportunity"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"966fa8a2-cfd1-45f9-914a-3c4a8ba74188","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T05:00:41.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1996176688414367744/LXfA_lIx_normal.jpg","handle":"@aleabitoreddit","id":"x-1940360837547565056","name":"Serenity","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"$AAOI earnings:\n\n- $1B-$1.5B LTA disclosed with a hyperscaler customer\n\n- 2nd LTA coming soon, worth 5x+ more (implying $5B-$7.5B), in its final stages. \n\nThis LTA explicitly includes lasers, very material for AOI that they're moving to supplying merchant lasers. \n\n- \"The demand is exceptional, unprecedented. I do not know what kind of superlatives to use to describe the amount of demand that we are seeing out there in the industry\"\n\nYeah this commentary doesn't sound like any optical demand would slowed down if it's \"exceptional + unprecedented\" \n\n- Rejected hyperscaler slowdowns from political changes with little effect. \n\n- AOI Can only meet 80% of demand, in case there's a kind of reduction, the demand would be bigger than AOI future capacity\n\n- Moving toward other financing methods than ATMs (thank god), US bank loans similar to what $NBIS is doing, I'd argue is positive, given FCF coming in later. \n\n- Delay in meeting capacity projections into H1 2027. $471m/month targets pushed back into H2 2027, due to electrical procurement and construction logistics, which existed before Texas governor changed. \n\nThis part is negative part of the earnings call. To qualify this, I don't quite think hyperscalers would sign a $5-$7.5B LTA if they didn't think AOI couldn't deliver.\n\n-  Near term Q4 guidance cut was DSP availability. AOI revised near term projections down slightly to $385M and $420M in revenue. \n\nSaid DSP supply would ease early 2027 and that they're qualifying more suppliers. \n\n- Gave hiked H2 2027 capacity projections from their expansion, near term revision downward. \n\n- 4 to 5 ongoing UHP laser eval/quals for CPO\n\nUHP laser segment alone would far outweigh their $3.8B MC, especially if you're executing on multi billion dollar contracts with 60%+ gross margin laseres.\n\nTLDR:\n- Long term visibility improved a lot, with est. $6-$9B cumulative LTA contracts coming soon. \n- Shift toward supplying CPO lasers merchant is fundamentally material vs. just transceivers, and what I wanted to hear\n- Capacity guidance hiked into H2 2027, near term delays from electrical/DSP related procurement + installation.  \n\nI still think we're reached peak fear levels, but wouldn't dismiss disappointing short term procurement delays + Q4 DSP bottlenecks. \n\nAOI likely signing an additional +$5-$7.5B in likely hyperscaler LTAs and entering merchant UHP CPO market dominanted by $LITE + $COHR. \n\nFactored in with the valuation drop has made medium-long term opportunities very compelling.","textShort":"$AAOI earnings:\n\n- $1B-$1.5B LTA disclosed with a hyperscaler customer\n\n- 2nd LTA coming soon, worth 5x+ more (implying $5B-$7.5B), in its final stages. \n\nThis LTA explicitly includes lasers, very material for AOI that they're moving to supplying merchant lasers. \n\n- \"The…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2118569237128286343"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T04:05:46.017Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"fe59c575-b593-4b24-824c-e33fbd4c4080","observations":[{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["BTC dumps to $76k → Derive BTC options volume surges 124%.","$231M traded yesterday, $189M of it options, BTC options alone: $135M."],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"A quoted update says Derive BTC options volume surged as BTC fell to $76k, with $231M traded the prior day.","topic":"derive btc options activity"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["revenue is up when price is down","fundamental floor setting when it's most needed"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source says volatility can boost revenue and buybacks when prices fall, helping establish a floor for the tokens.","topic":"volatility driven token buybacks"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"para:DRV","confidence":0.68,"dex":"para","earlierSameDirection":1,"entryPx":0.31889,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects DRV to find support from revenue generated during volatility shocks.","id":"sig_1ade31b995634613baeb26c8","matched":["$DRV $HYPE $AERO $LIT tokens removed from circulation shoots up on days like today","fundamental floor setting when it's most needed"],"maxLeverage":5,"rationale":"The source expects DRV to be supported because volatility-driven revenue is used for buybacks when prices are down.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"DRV","tags":["buybacks","volatility revenue","token support"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"AERO","confidence":0.68,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":1,"entryPx":0.589475,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects AERO to find support from revenue generated during volatility shocks.","id":"sig_22eded75630647699c07ebcb","matched":["$DRV $HYPE $AERO $LIT tokens removed from circulation shoots up on days like today","fundamental floor setting when it's most needed"],"maxLeverage":3,"rationale":"The source expects AERO to be supported because volatility-driven revenue is used for buybacks when prices are down.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"AERO","tags":["buybacks","volatility revenue","token support"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"LIT","confidence":0.68,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":3.41625,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects LIT to find support from revenue generated during volatility shocks.","id":"sig_5f813f549897488397713fa0","matched":["$DRV $HYPE $AERO $LIT tokens removed from circulation shoots up on days like today","fundamental floor setting when it's most needed"],"maxLeverage":5,"rationale":"The source expects LIT to be supported because volatility-driven revenue is used for buybacks when prices are down.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"LIT","tags":["buybacks","volatility revenue","token support"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"HYPE","confidence":0.68,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":77.1485,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects HYPE to find support from revenue generated during volatility shocks.","id":"sig_95a5931df38740b2a2867839","matched":["$DRV $HYPE $AERO $LIT tokens removed from circulation shoots up on days like today","fundamental floor setting when it's most needed"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source expects HYPE to be supported because volatility-driven revenue is used for buybacks when prices are down.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":true,"sym":"HYPE","tags":["buybacks","volatility revenue","token support"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"594dbb98-bd5c-4ce1-8577-c16d8e71cfa0","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T04:04:05.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2049861904634609664/43DxVolR_normal.jpg","handle":"@koolkrypto223","id":"x-1982595844747743233","name":"KoolKrypto","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Oh your token doesn't capitalize on and monetize volatility shocks and put in strong revenue days, even during market pukes, and then direct that revenue to holders via buybacks? \n\nNgmi...\n\n$DRV $HYPE $AERO $LIT tokens removed from circulation shoots up on days like today because revenue is up when price is down; fundamental floor setting when it's most needed.\n\nQuoting: GM\n\nBTC dumps to $76k → Derive BTC options volume surges 124%.\n\n$231M traded yesterday, $189M of it options, BTC options alone: $135M.\n\nVolatility is traded on Derive 🔥🐴","textShort":"Oh your token doesn't capitalize on and monetize volatility shocks and put in strong revenue days, even during market pukes, and then direct that revenue to holders via buybacks? \n\nNgmi...\n\n$DRV $HYPE $AERO $LIT tokens removed from circulation shoots up on days like today…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/koolkrypto223/status/2118554989572297115"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T03:33:34.585Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"aabfbd2e-c47e-4780-b3e3-cd84f350d381","observations":[{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["today's downturn is more technical than fundamental","sudden shift in sentiment colliding with excessive levels of leverage"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The quoted passage describes a sharp downturn driven more by sentiment and leverage than by fundamentals.","topic":"stock market downturn"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["More than $1B in crypto liquidations amplified the drop"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The post says more than $1B in liquidations amplified the crypto-market drop.","topic":"crypto liquidations"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["concerns around regulation, they are legitimate","Frankly, an outright ban will not happen.","Does this mean AI is \"over\""],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The quoted passage says regulation concerns are legitimate but argues an outright AI ban will not happen and AI is not over.","topic":"ai regulation"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["$BTC went from above $80K after the U.S. midterms to below $76K"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The post reports that Bitcoin fell from above $80K to below $76K after the midterms.","topic":"bitcoin price action"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["a broader risk-off move spilling into crypto"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The source describes the stock selloff as a broader risk-off move spilling into crypto.","topic":"crypto market risk appetite"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:MSTR","confidence":0.9,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":129.45,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"The source is adding to Strategy to increase Bitcoin exposure","id":"sig_7a18b6c63ce1469b893f82b5","matched":["Strategy (MSTR)","I use MSTR to dial up my Bitcoin exposure","I’m still DCA’ing into BTC and Strategy (MSTR)"],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source is buying Strategy because it uses the stock to increase its Bitcoin exposure.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"MSTR","tags":["strategy","bitcoin exposure","accumulation"],"venue":"hyperliquid"},{"coin":"BTC","confidence":0.9,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":75908.5,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"The source is continuing to add to Bitcoin despite the possibility of more downside","id":"sig_8d588677dd5f4081adbff862","matched":["DCA’ing into BTC","BTC is my core position","I’m adding in tranches here"],"maxLeverage":40,"rationale":"The source expects Bitcoin to be worth accumulating over time and is buying in tranches even if it falls further.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"BTC","tags":["bitcoin","accumulation"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"e05a82d2-9aec-4e2f-92f5-918af86f8916","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T03:32:13.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1960683153854537728/OKngw-9G_normal.jpg","handle":"@rektdiomedes","id":"x-1470955425084235780","name":"rektdiomedes","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Reposted @0xadriandefi: Quick market update 📉\n\n$BTC went from above $80K after the U.S. midterms to below $76K as AI and chip stocks sold off. To me, this looks like a broader risk-off move spilling into crypto. More than $1B in crypto liquidations amplified the drop, and sentiment was already shaky after the Binance hack.\n\nI’m still DCA’ing into BTC and Strategy (MSTR) at these levels. BTC is my core position, and I use MSTR to dial up my Bitcoin exposure. That cuts both ways, especially on days like this.\n\nWe could still go lower. I’m adding in tranches here, and I’m comfortable adding again if we do.\n\nQuoting: On today's stock market crash:\n\nAs an investor, on days like today, you have to ask yourself one question: What fundamentally changed over the last 24 hours?\n\nThe shift in the fundamental backdrop cannot be attributed solely to the Midterm Election results; markets had already largely priced in the outcome.\n\nSo, what changed between yesterday and today? What is the fundamental reason for today's decline?\n\nOne of the most likely catalysts is growing concern about a potential \"ban\" on AI, or at the very least, severe regulation of the industry.\n\nOver the last 24 hours, Democratic lawmakers have publicly called for restrictions on advanced AI development, including an outright \"ban on artificial superintelligence.\"\n\nFrankly, an outright ban will not happen.\n\nSuch a ban, if even possible to enforce, would effectively mean the US surrendering its position in the global AI race to China.\n\nDoes this mean AI is \"over\" or today's stock market crash marks \"the end?\" Absolutely not.\n\nRather, we believe we are witnessing a sudden shift in sentiment colliding with excessive levels of leverage, potentially triggering forced liquidations by several major institutional investors.\n\nTherefore, today's downturn is more technical than fundamental. This is not to discount the concerns around regulation, they are legitimate. But price action right now does not look orderly or rational.\n\nWe are in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in human history.\n\nZoom out and remain calm.","textShort":"Reposted @0xadriandefi: Quick market update 📉\n\n$BTC went from above $80K after the U.S. midterms to below $76K as AI and chip stocks sold off. To me, this looks like a broader risk-off move spilling into crypto. More than $1B in crypto liquidations amplified the drop, and…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/rektdiomedes/status/2118546973360009719"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T02:12:35.242Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"9e6827eb-0797-4284-b4fa-f72c63760b97","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["$HIMS $27.66 -> $24.06 (-13.02%)."],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"HIMS fell from $27.66 to $24.06, a reported drop of 13.02%.","topic":"hims price move"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:HIMS","confidence":0.6,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":24.1485,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects HIMS to roll over further if it keeps rejecting the 30-week SMA","id":"sig_1549944eca2c4415a5b22190","matched":["$HIMS","The more it rejects the 30-week SMA, the more likely it rolls over."],"maxLeverage":10,"rationale":"The source expects HIMS to fall further if it continues to reject the 30-week moving average.","routing":"direct","side":"short","superseded":false,"sym":"HIMS","tags":["technical analysis","moving average rejection"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"e83b80d5-3df1-479d-ac91-f96b0354d565","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T02:11:17.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1780943689575227392/6V_gln5w_normal.jpg","handle":"@nicaqs","id":"x-600987590","name":"nic.aqs","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"$HIMS $27.66 -> $24.06 (-13.02%). \nThe more it rejects the 30-week SMA, the more likely it rolls over. https://t.co/PpbMkzh1pF https://t.co/GtbyARFmD5\n\nQuoting their own post: $HIMS (weekly) 30-week SMA rejection. POC rejection. Stoch RSI bear cross. https://t.co/maz6APPyCd https://t.co/L1XpH8ECn8","textShort":"$HIMS $27.66 -> $24.06 (-13.02%). \nThe more it rejects the 30-week SMA, the more likely it rolls over. https://t.co/PpbMkzh1pF https://t.co/GtbyARFmD5\n\nQuoting their own post: $HIMS (weekly) 30-week SMA rejection. POC rejection. Stoch RSI bear cross. https://t.co/maz6APPyCd…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/nicaqs/status/2118526604536410335"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T01:32:11.181Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"bf229293-f9a8-477d-81d4-39fc46a05100","observations":[],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:XYZ100","confidence":0.75,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":1,"entryPx":26817.5,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects a short-term bounce in QQQ","id":"sig_22f073ad34b84118bed060d2","matched":["$QQQ","short-term bounce thesis"],"maxLeverage":30,"rationale":"The post expects QQQ to bounce, which points higher for this market's Nasdaq-100 exposure.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"XYZ100","tags":["nasdaq 100","short term bounce"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"ce04555c-288f-4af7-a176-07284e8532e2","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T01:31:13.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1780943689575227392/6V_gln5w_normal.jpg","handle":"@nicaqs","id":"x-600987590","name":"nic.aqs","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"$QQQ short-term bounce thesis. https://t.co/BLeqNda636","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/nicaqs/status/2118516522591432860"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T01:30:38.006Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"31f22973-cdaf-44fd-a37d-ea3f01adf71c","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["highest revenue week since launching the neobank"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The post says ETHFI had its highest-revenue week since launching its neobank.","topic":"ethfi revenue"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"ETHFI","confidence":0.9,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":0.55208,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects ETHFI to sell higher after buying more ahead of its investor call and Q4 holiday spending","id":"sig_527c22b27677429ea7dd52d8","matched":["bought more","sell it for higher","q4 holiday spend"],"maxLeverage":5,"rationale":"The source bought more ETHFI and expects to sell it for more as the investor call and holiday spending approach.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"ETHFI","tags":["crypto","investor call","holiday spending"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"14eb3fab-4def-4101-9529-09e02b1a0b99","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T01:29:38.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1613764698775633921/72tL5YzB_normal.jpg","handle":"@DeFi_Dad","id":"x-991745162274467840","name":"DeFi Dad ⟠ defidad.eth","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Reposted @dcfgod: you bafoons sold ethfi into the depths of hell today when they just closed their highest revenue week since launching the neobank\n\nand it's not even black friday yet \n\nsame revenue as lighter at 1/6th the fdv \n\nanyway, dcf cap bought more... expecting to be able to sell it for higher going into the next investor call and q4 holiday spend","textShort":"Reposted @dcfgod: you bafoons sold ethfi into the depths of hell today when they just closed their highest revenue week since launching the neobank\n\nand it's not even black friday yet \n\nsame revenue as lighter at 1/6th the fdv \n\nanyway, dcf cap bought more... expecting to be…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/DeFi_Dad/status/2118516124270649680"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T01:24:33.472Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"5509623c-c18a-4357-87df-ccbe2149445e","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Would feel much comfier being long a neobank that was $HYPE affiliated","liquid staking $HYPE, borrowing and trading against it, getting cashback in $HYPE"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The source says a HYPE-affiliated neobank with staking, borrowing, trading and cashback features would be a more appealing on-chain neobank narrative.","topic":"hype neobank concept"},{"attribution":"quoted","evidence":["dcf cap bought more","expecting to be able to sell it for higher going into the next investor call and q4 holiday spend"],"sentiment":"positive","summary":"The post reports that DCF Cap bought more ETHFI and expects to sell it at a higher price around the next investor call and fourth-quarter holiday spending.","topic":"ethfi resale expectation"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Extremely strong revenue and growth story","still don't love the name and association with $ETH"],"sentiment":"mixed","summary":"The source cites strong revenue and growth but says the name and its association with ETH make them less comfortable with the position.","topic":"ethfi outlook"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"ETHFI","confidence":0.9,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":0.54754,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"The source has started adding to an ETHFI position","id":"sig_ff4dee1232e241f2be11ef36","matched":["Started added some of my first ethereum:0xfe0c30065b384f05761f15d0cc899d4f9f9cc0eb exposure","sold ethfi","Extremely strong revenue and growth story"],"maxLeverage":5,"rationale":"The source says they have started adding exposure to ETHFI, encouraged by its revenue and growth story despite reservations about its name and ETH association.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"ETHFI","tags":["position","revenue","growth"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"cc661ced-8980-4c3c-88c0-233180a82ec8","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T01:22:31.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2049861904634609664/43DxVolR_normal.jpg","handle":"@koolkrypto223","id":"x-1982595844747743233","name":"KoolKrypto","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Started added some of my first ethereum:0xfe0c30065b384f05761f15d0cc899d4f9f9cc0eb exposure in a long time here. \n\nExtremely strong revenue and growth story, just still don't love the name and association with $ETH.\n\nWould feel much comfier being long a neobank that was $HYPE affiliated...\n\nPerhaps one with $1b of $HYPE LST TVL...\n\nWould be cool if they were about to have an entire vertically integrated ecosystem and other streams of revenue to amplify this product...\n\nLike imagine liquid staking $HYPE, borrowing and trading against it, getting cashback in $HYPE etc...\n\nWould be a much comfier on chain neobank narrative to ape imo 👀\n\nQuoting: you bafoons sold ethfi into the depths of hell today when they just closed their highest revenue week since launching the neobank\n\nand it's not even black friday yet \n\nsame revenue as lighter at 1/6th the fdv \n\nanyway, dcf cap bought more... expecting to be able to sell it for higher going into the next investor call and q4 holiday spend","textShort":"Started added some of my first ethereum:0xfe0c30065b384f05761f15d0cc899d4f9f9cc0eb exposure in a long time here. \n\nExtremely strong revenue and growth story, just still don't love the name and association with $ETH.\n\nWould feel much comfier being long a neobank that was $HYPE…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/koolkrypto223/status/2118514330652336391"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T01:04:17.492Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"eace1aa8-3357-4133-bad6-7013db0b4779","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["hard to see this conflict lasting much longer"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The source expects the conflict to end relatively soon.","topic":"conflict duration"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["Rates down"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The source expects rates to fall in the near term.","topic":"rates"},{"attribution":"source","evidence":["oil down"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The source expects oil prices to fall in the near term.","topic":"oil"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"BTC","confidence":0.75,"dex":"","earlierSameDirection":0,"entryPx":76257.5,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects Bitcoin to rise temporarily as the conflict winds down","id":"sig_07fa612c082b4d92aef95dfa","matched":["hard to see this conflict lasting much longer","$BTC up on this","At least temporarily."],"maxLeverage":40,"rationale":"Expects Bitcoin to rise at least temporarily because the conflict is unlikely to last much longer.","routing":"direct","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"BTC","tags":["bitcoin","geopolitics"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"7754d56d-333e-42b3-b702-e59ffabceedb","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T01:02:08.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2049861904634609664/43DxVolR_normal.jpg","handle":"@koolkrypto223","id":"x-1982595844747743233","name":"KoolKrypto","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"This has been my base case for a while.\n\nIran couldn't retaliate effectively from a military perspective, so they made sure to win the war of attrition to sandbag Trump in the midterms. \n\nAll previous \"deal\" attempts were them stalling. \n\nThere's no reason for Trump to hold back anymore, but there's also no reason for them to stall anymore. \n\nRegardless if Trump wants to throw the kitchen sink at them first so he can optically declare it as a victory, hard to see this conflict lasting much longer from a game theory perspective.\n\nRates down, oil down, $BTC up on this. At least temporarily.\n\nQuoting: What if Iran is hurting really bad but had to drag the war out to midterms to ensure Trump got crushed.\n\nThe last battle of the war was actually fought in the ballots and in the orderbooks\n\nMaybe the oil traders saw the game theory days ago","textShort":"This has been my base case for a while.\n\nIran couldn't retaliate effectively from a military perspective, so they made sure to win the war of attrition to sandbag Trump in the midterms. \n\nAll previous \"deal\" attempts were them stalling. \n\nThere's no reason for Trump to hold…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/koolkrypto223/status/2118509203081884092"},{"analysis":{"analyzedAt":"2026-11-06T01:02:12.858Z","catalogCoverage":"full","dropped":[],"id":"be2fd1de-b1de-42c5-8b16-c6c6563ab43b","observations":[{"attribution":"source","evidence":["-31.5% on Covid crash","-26.11% on liberation crash","We are currently sitting at -16%"],"sentiment":"negative","summary":"The post says the Nasdaq has fallen 16%, less than the cited Covid and Liberation Day declines.","topic":"nasdaq correction"}],"outcome":"analysis","outcomeReason":null,"signals":[{"coin":"xyz:XYZ100","confidence":0.75,"dex":"xyz","earlierSameDirection":1,"entryPx":26784.5,"entryPxAt":null,"headline":"Expects the Nasdaq to find support and become easier to profit from","id":"sig_197825e7bde44ea792d15677","matched":["Nasdaq price action has been brutal lately","we will find a support","What will follow most likely will be more easy"],"maxLeverage":30,"rationale":"Because the post says the Nasdaq is down 16% but expects it to find support and make trading easier, it implies the Nasdaq will recover.","routing":"inferred","side":"long","superseded":false,"sym":"XYZ100","tags":["nasdaq","market recovery"],"venue":"hyperliquid"}]},"detail":"analysis","id":"ff210fbd-41ca-44f1-afc0-118f4e1a4e54","marks":[],"pendingAnalysis":false,"postedAt":"2026-11-06T01:01:03.000Z","source":{"avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2001077543756034053/wIOsae_y_normal.jpg","handle":"@Brownmoose","id":"x-933330884626993152","name":"Moose","platform":"x"},"status":"analyzed","text":"Reposted @Brownmoose: Nasdaq price action has been brutal lately , but we are still far from the Covid total correction and Liberation day level.\n\n-31.5% on Covid crash\n-26.11% on liberation crash\n\nWe are currently sitting at -16% with this Tech blowout.\n\nLooking at the chart , it does seems like the market will never recover and you lost tons of money but zooming out you will realize we will find a support and yes it will be easy again to make profit.\n\nNot every months are fun to trade , October and November were not in the fun part. \n\nWhat will follow most likely will be more easy for anyone that can DCA or had cash.","textShort":"Reposted @Brownmoose: Nasdaq price action has been brutal lately , but we are still far from the Covid total correction and Liberation day level.\n\n-31.5% on Covid crash\n-26.11% on liberation crash\n\nWe are currently sitting at -16% with this Tech blowout.\n\nLooking at the chart…","truncated":false,"url":"https://x.com/Brownmoose/status/2118508928267137304"}]}